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🍽️ 1 for the road: America's best tippers Data: Toast. Map: Sami Sparber/Axios Delaware, West Virginia and New Hampshire are home to America's top tippers, with diners leaving around 21% on average, according to new Toast data shared first with Axios' Sami Sparber. Why it matters: "Tip fatigue" is fueling a broader rethink of tipping culture, even as average tips haven't changed much over the past two years. 🧮 By the numbers: Nationwide, diners tipped roughly 19% on average across all restaurant types in Q2 2026. At the bottom: California, D.C. and Washington state, where averages run under 18%. Keep reading.

⛽ "Great Fuel Crisis" arrives Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images The prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the fuel crisis that oil executives have been warning about for months, The Wall Street Journal reports. "Commercial fuel stocks around the world have been depleting for more than six months, and strategic crude reserves can't be tapped much further," the paper says. Today's national average gas price is $4.33 for a gallon of regular. Between the lines: 49 days before the midterms, it's hard to see a scenario where prices come down quickly. Keep reading (gift link).

The AI fear trade Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Fear is splitting the AI trade: The same advances that are raising alarms about rogue agents, cyberattacks and apocalypse are creating a bull case for the companies paid to protect against those threats, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Calls for a slowdown in the advancement of the most sophisticated models pushed down stocks in sectors connected to the AI trade, like chip and memory companies. At the same time, stocks rose for cybersecurity companies. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks — two of the industry's largest companies — were up yesterday roughly 14% and 13%, respectively.

🐂 State Department's Satan panic Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Finn Gomez/Getty Images The second-most powerful man at the State Department put the brakes on a U.S. international exhibit featuring a bull statue because he worried it might look like Baal, a devil some associate with satanic child sacrifice, Axios' Marc Caputo writes. Why it matters: The anecdote illustrates the quirky interests of Deputy Secretary of State Chris Landau, according to department critics, who say he spends too much time on social media focusing on the unimportant. 🔎 Zoom in: The issue revolves around an international exposition next year in Belgrade, Serbia, where the U.S. plans to feature a statue of a bucking bull at an exhibition celebrating the American West. On Aug. 19, at 4:15 p.m., Landau sent an email to staffers about it: "I remain somewhat concerned by the Golden Bull imagery! Did a quick internet search and don't want it to become a distraction. The golden calf from the Bible is often portrayed as a golden bull." Providing hyperlinked footnotes and images of golden bull worship, Landau explored the ancient history of Baal as well as the "Modern Cultural Comparisons." Behind the scenes: The email, which was forwarded to multiple officials, elicited eye rolls and snickers inside the State Department. The bull statue was put on hold as State officials spent the past few weeks debating how to make it both interesting and non-satanic. "It's just totally weird stuff and it's really indicative of the guy," a State Department official said. 💥 Friction point: Landau has had repeated internal dustups within the Trump administration, sources tell Axios. Keep reading.

🤖 Why a swift AI pause is unlikely Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios Most agree the AI industry needs oversight, Bradley Olson writes in his debut story as Axios' managing editor of AI and tech coverage. The critical barrier: Few really trust the industry or the safety advocates who come from inside the house. Why it matters: Factions in the Trump administration, business executives wary of competitive threats, and advocates for cheaper, more customizable "open" models fear that new regulatory hurdles will give frontier AI companies too much of a head start. 💡 Here are key factors shaping that distrust, which are poised to delay the kind of "all-hands-on-deck" response many wanted: Money: Anthropic stands alone in the history of capitalism. Its employees, up to the CEO, honestly believe its product is so dangerous that there's a chance it could destroy humanity. And yet, as soon as this week, it's expected to file for what many expect will be the biggest IPO of all time. Safety: For years, AI obsessives and technologists have spent vast sums financing research dedicated to AI safety. The problem is that many critics see some of that work as lacking in substance, too focused on the probability of end-of-the-world scenarios. Politics: Top administration officials — including David Sacks, former White House AI adviser and continuing Trump confidant — have repeatedly dismissed the push for regulation and oversight as an attempt at "regulatory capture." A slowdown brokered by the frontier labs could freeze their lead. Keep reading.

Trump's war on AI doomers Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images President Trump declared war on the AI safety panic yesterday, dismissing the industry's apocalyptic warnings as part of a "sick conspiracy" to sabotage America and his legacy, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: Trump is rewriting a complex, yearslong debate over AI's dangers in the partisan grammar that has defined MAGA for a decade — hoaxes, conspiracies, traitors and, at the center of it all, one man. Yesterday marked a sharp escalation in the administration's long-standing opposition to AI regulation, as Trump recast the safety debate in starkly personal terms. Trump explicitly placed AI doomerism in the same bucket as the Russia investigation, climate change and his impeachments — the latest entry in a catalog of "hoaxes" that has also included the Epstein files and the affordability crisis. He turned his fire on the AI leaders urging restraint, questioning why CEOs would seek regulations that could cripple their own companies and arguing that any slowdown would squander America's lead over China. "The only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT," Trump wrote in a barrage of pro-AI Truth Social posts, where he accused Democrats of stoking the panic. 👀 The intrigue: Trump's campaign against AI doomerism then spilled onto the stage of the "All In Summit" in Los Angeles, where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took a call from the president in the middle of a live interview. Addressing thousands of tech executives, investors and founders on speakerphone, Trump dismissed fears of an AI takeover as a "hoax" and assured the crowd that "the robots will not be taking over." Via Truth Social Between the lines: Trump is grafting his own political grievances onto a counter-narrative already taking hold among his Silicon Valley allies: that the AI panic is manufactured. David Sacks, Trump's influential AI adviser and "All In" podcaster, has portrayed AI alarmism as the work of a well-funded "Doomer Industrial Complex" that includes former Biden officials. As the latest warnings exploded across social media last week, Sacks and his co-hosts suggested the backlash was a coordinated "psyop" tied to election season and the growing threat from open-source AI. Via X 🖼️ The big picture: Critics question how Trump, an 80-year-old populist, became such an evangelist for AI. The answer lies in an AI narrative almost perfectly calibrated to Trump's instincts: A race with China that America is currently winning. A historic buildout of data centers, chip fabs and power plants — physical monuments to investment and growth. Tech titans competing for his ear and influence. A booming stock market. A futuristic vision of American supremacy built on speed, scale and technological might. And now, a familiar foil: an elite "expert" class telling him no. The bottom line: Trump has been an AI accelerationist from the start. What's new is the degree to which he now sees the AI boom as his boom — and the safety revolt as an attempt to deny him his place in history. ps:What an obvious pathetic money grubber!!

THIS DAY IN HISTORY September 15 1978 Muhammad Ali wins world heavyweight championship Muhammad Ali defeats Leon Spinks to win the world heavyweight boxing title for the third time in his career, the first fighter ever to do so. read more Sponsored Content by REVCONTENT 19th Century 1858 The first transcontinental mail service to San Francisco begins 1970s 1971 Greenpeace emerges from nuclear bomb protest 21st Century 2008 Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy Arts & Entertainment 1954 Famous Marilyn Monroe skirt scene filmed 1890 Agatha Christie is born 1955 Vladimir Nabokov’s “Lolita” is published 1962 The Four Seasons earn their first No. 1 hit with “Sherry” Asian History 1950 U.S. forces land at Inchon Black History 1963 Four Black schoolgirls killed in Birmingham church bombing Civil War 1862 Confederates capture Harpers Ferry Cold War 1959 Khrushchev arrives in Washington Crime 1990 A Bible school instructor abducts a teenage girl Holocaust 1935 Nuremberg race laws imposed U.S. Presidents 1857 Future President William Taft born Vietnam War 1972 South Vietnamese forces retake Quang Tri City World War I 1914 First trenches are dug on the Western Front 1916 Tanks introduced into warfare at the Somme World War II 1940 Tide turns in the Battle of Britain 1944 Americans launch Operation Stalemate—at extraordinary cost

> More than 20 states and cities sue to block upcoming Homeland Security policy restricting green cards for some public benefit recipients (More) | Supreme Court rejects Trump administration's mail ballot restrictions for midterm elections (More) > Protests erupt across Syria after government announces it will raise oil prices as much as 40% amid Iran war (More) > Russian billionaire close to President Vladimir Putin hosted two nights of wedding celebrations for Donald Trump Jr., report reveals (More) | Russian drone strikes Ukrainian civilian train to Warsaw, narrowly missing former foreign officials (More)

> US stock markets close down (S&P 500 -0.5%, Dow -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.6%) as leaders of OpenAI and Anthropic call for global slowdown of AI development (More) | Read previous write-up (More) > Ten-year Treasury yield reaches 5% for the first time since 2023, a critical threshold that could make it more expensive to take out loans for homes, cars, and more (More) | What's a yield? (More) > Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk rebrands as Novo, in an effort to make the company more recognizable as it competes with Eli Lilly to lead the GLP-1 market (More)

> Waymo launches public robotaxi service in Las Vegas, following successful launches in 14 other cities; riders are being invited on a rolling basis (More) | Track where robotaxis are operating (More) > Single brain implant enables people with paralysis to speak and convey upper-body gestures simultaneously via a virtual avatar (More, w/image) > Water scarcity will likely limit the size and longevity of future lunar settlements, according to new analysis; estimates suggest a city of 1 million people could only survive about a century, even with 98% water recycling efficiency (More)

> Fashion designer Bob Mackie, who dressed Cher, Tina Turner, Diana Ross, and more stars in sparkling ensembles, dies at age 87 (More) | Look back at his bedazzled creations (More, w/photos) > Rapper Macklemore removed from Ed Sheeran’s tour after pro-Palestinian speech; New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and others are reportedly refusing to let him perform at their stadiums (More) > US women's basketball wins fifth straight FIBA World Cup title with 97-79 victory over France (More) | See game highlights featuring Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, and more (More via YouTube)

Saudi Arabia Faces Militant Attacks Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen captured two islands in the Red Sea yesterday. The seizure of Greater and Lesser Hanish further compromised Saudi Arabia’s ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and deliver oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (see more, w/map). The kingdom and allied Gulf states postponed planned talks with Iran Sunday amid the uptick in attacks. Houthis say their recent strikes, including on a Saudi military base yesterday, are retaliation for hundreds of airstrikes by the kingdom. Separately, Saudi Arabia faces attacks from Iranian-backed militants in Iraq, forcing the kingdom to close its East-West Pipeline for weeks amid repairs (see satellite images). The roughly 750-mile-long pipeline reroutes 4% of global oil to the Red Sea, feeding shipments to the Bab el-Mandeb. President Donald Trump reportedly rejected Saudi calls last week to participate in Saudi airstrikes against the Houthis. The dayslong uptick in fighting has reportedly killed more than 500 people and displaced nearly 94,000 others, threatening a return to pre-2022 levels of violence (see history).

The first roller coaster was used to transport coal down a hill. After people found that it could reach speeds up to 50 miles per hour, tourists asked to ride on it for a few cents. James

⛰️ Parting shot! Photo: Daniel J. Schmidt Reader Daniel J. Schmidt of Glenview, Ill., captured this scene after a storm in Keystone, Colo. Look closely, and you'll see it's a double rainbow.

GOP chilly on checks Data: OMB; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Senate Republicans are doubtful — and, in some cases, dismissive — of Trump's proposal to give Americans $5,000 checks if Republicans keep control of Congress. Why it matters: Trump's proposal isn't dead on arrival. But Republicans aren't exactly lining up behind it either. ⚖️ "I am withholding judgment on the bill until I see their list of pay-fors," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. "I don't support going and borrowing $1.2 trillion to be able to write the checks." 👀 "I would need to see details on it," Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) said. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said he wasn't sure about the mechanics of the proposal but that he's "also worrying about $40 trillion in debt." "You know, there's no specific proposal out there," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said. "And obviously, however that were to come together, Congress would have a big role in determining." 🔎 Zoom in: There are two massive unknowns about the "Trump Dividend" the president promised in Dallas last week: eligibility and price tag. Vice President Vance has suggested that wealthy Americans wouldn't receive the payment. If every "every adult citizen in the United States" were eligible, as Trump suggested, it could cost some $1.3 trillion. That would be more than three times what the U.S. collects annually from tariffs and other customs duties and fees. 🤔 The intrigue: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who frequently defers to Trump, said yesterday that Congress would have to approve the payments. Asked in NBC's "Meet the Press" if he'd commit that the checks will be sent, Johnson said, "I commit that Congress will work through it and find consensus on that like they have to do everything else." Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) told us: "Well, if it happens, I'm recommending to people that they put it away in order to pay for the additional inflation. We will see." — Hans Nichols, Stef W. Kight and Erin Davis

🤖 Thune's AI push Majority Leader John Thune is asserting Congress' prerogative to act on AI — but he's urging a "light touch" even in the face of "consequential risks." Why it matters: On his first day back after a five-week break, Thune (R-S.D.) outlined his vision for congressional action on an issue President Trump has dismissed as a "hoax." 👉 "Congress has a job to do," Thune said. "I think there are some potential consequential risks associated with AI," Thune told reporters when asked if he believes AI poses an existential threat to humanity. He added, "Guardrails there make sense to me" about cutting-edge, frontier AI models. 🚨 But Thune also said that "there are always people who are creating a worst-case-scenario-type conversation out there." 🚗 Driving the news: An AI panic is rippling through Congress, but mostly on the Democratic side, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) calling to "slow down the pace of development" of AI to avoid a potentially catastrophic outcome. Publicly, Trump is professing not to be concerned and insists that he should have the sole authority to regulate AI. "The only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades," he posted on his Truth Social account this morning. 🌎 Zoom out: Republicans aren't questioning Trump's ability to lead the country's approach to AI regulation, but they are suggesting that Congress has a role to play. And they aren't ruling out legislation. "So we may need to do something," Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said. "But there are existing guardrails, and corporate responsibility is a big part of this." Zoom in: Thune said he spoke with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) on Saturday night about their AI bill, which would force companies creating frontier AI models to guard against catastrophic risks and submit to federal oversight. Thune said he has been working with Commerce chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to reintroduce the bill "hopefully soon." House GOP leaders, meanwhile, have given no indication they plan to keep the chamber in session after this week to work on AI-related legislation. "I don't know that staying in more weeks in September is going to be the catalyst for that," Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.), the lead Republican on the FRONTIER Act, told us. Between the lines: Before this weekend, much of the AI debate in Washington — and in Senate races — was focused on data centers and the amount of electricity they consume. 🗳️ Republicans, as well as the White House, are eager to convince voters that they won't face higher utility bills caused by data centers and their need for megawatts. Thune left open the possibility of the Senate voting on a version of the House's Ratepayer Protection Act, which is aimed at ensuring communities are not forced to pay more for increased energy use by data centers. The House is expected to vote on the bill tomorrow. The bottom line: Thune is signaling he's open to some regulation that wouldn't stifle innovation. "I think you also want to make sure that the more advanced threats can be mitigated," he told reporters. 👟 "I do think we are in a race with China, and I think there's huge upside, obviously, with AI as well." — Stef W. Kight, Hans Nichols and Kate Santaliz

Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Monday rejected President Donald Trump’s bid to restrict mail ballots for the midterm elections, capping a flurry of last-minute legal action with voting already underway. https://apnews.com/article/trump-mail-voting-executive-order-lawsuit-78a4fbeb48d9c5fd27d1c865529fc65f?

Spin Cycle (Chandan Khanna / AFP / Getty)   View in browser Every president likes to take credit for good news on their watch, but most of them have at least a little shame about it. Not Donald Trump. September 10 is typically the peak of Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expected a relatively restrained year, but as the meteorologist and hurricane specialist Michael Lowry writes, the season “has never gone beyond September 11th in the reliable records (since at least 1950) without a hurricane” in the Atlantic Ocean—until this year. There aren’t even any strong prospects forming. Amid spreading violence in the Middle East, warnings of an AI apocalypse, and high fuel prices, it’s a rare piece of good news, and Trump wants credit. Over the weekend, the White House flagged the news, commenting, “Thank you, President Trump!” This is absurd, though maybe no one should be surprised that a man who believed that marking a map with Sharpie can change a hurricane’s path would take credit for a low-key storm season. (He also reportedly once suggested attacking storms with nuclear weapons, so perhaps, as the journalist Catherine Rampell jokes, this is deterrence in action.) Better explanations than presidential benevolence exist. As my colleague Joshua Partlow has reported, this is an unusual year for the El Niño cycle. In the Pacific Ocean, it has produced very warm water, as well as a number of hurricanes. Hawaii, which is seldom hit, has been struck by two hurricanes so far this year. At least four deaths have been attributed to the storms, and power remains out on some parts of the island of Kauai. But scientists say that El Niño also accounts for the absence of major storms, so far, in the Atlantic. “It’s really staggering, just how inhospitable the Atlantic is to anything that could form a tropical cyclone right now,” Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, told PBS. The lull is especially notable because last year’s hurricane season was also astonishingly mild in the United States. Although parts of the Caribbean endured hurricanes, not a single one hit the U.S. mainland. This is great news for the Americans who are otherwise often in hurricanes’ paths, and who have been slammed by a series of storms in the past decade—including 2024’s Hurricane Helene, the deadliest to hit the mainland United States since Hurricane Katrina, in 2005. It is also great news for Trump, who must be one of the luckiest people in history. Hurricanes can help or, more often, badly hurt a president. George W. Bush’s reputation never recovered from Katrina, whereas Barack Obama’s steady hand during Hurricane Sandy seemed to bolster his reelection campaign. Trump’s handling of storms during his first term was poor; he demonstrated little human warmth and, in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, jarring coldness. Trump’s personal behavior aside, his administration has been especially fortunate because under his leadership, FEMA appears to be in no shape to handle a major disaster. In the first months of his second presidency, Trump and then–Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced plans to dismantle FEMA entirely, devolving responsibility for relief to states, an idea panned by most experts. In the meantime, he seemed determined to slowly strangle it, appointing interim leaders with no disaster-relief experience. First came Cameron Hamilton, who was fired after telling Congress that he did not support liquidating FEMA. Next was David Richardson, who, shortly after taking his post in May 2025, acknowledged that he had no completed plan for the impending hurricane season and would reuse the previous year’s. (FEMA employees reported that Richardson said he didn’t even realize such a season existed; a FEMA spokesperson later said he was joking.) Because no storms have since struck the mainland, these failures ended up having much less human and economic cost. FEMA appears to be on a somewhat stronger footing now. Trump has backed off plans to eliminate FEMA, Noem and Richardson are gone, and Hamilton is back as permanent administrator—and has won some tentative praise for working to learn more about disaster relief. He inherits serious challenges, though. A federal judge ruled on Friday that an administration order to lay off half of FEMA’s workforce was illegal. “Frankly, the FEMA staffing plan number appears as if pulled from thin air,” the judge wrote of the government’s proposal, which included cutting thousands of on-call employees who rush in with aid after a disaster. A report released last month by the Government Accountability Office was even more scathing. The GAO found that FEMA’s personnel decisions had been made “without assessing whether it had the necessary staffing capacity to meet its mission,” including what it is required to do under law, and that “FEMA is not positioned to determine whether it has the right number of people with the right skills in the right positions at the right time to meet its mission.” Furthermore, the report said, “the agency has no overall strategic direction.” Alas, the calm before the storms won’t last indefinitely. Experts who spoke with The New York Times said that it would be premature to assume that no major Atlantic hurricanes will form this year. If the president’s political luck continues, then perhaps the East Coast won’t see a really bad storm until after the midterm elections, or maybe even next year. Given his administration’s approach to hurricane preparedness and the travails of FEMA, though, ordinary Americans along the Atlantic coast and the Gulf Coast are likely to see their weather luck run out. Related: This El Niño will be unlike any in the past eight decades. FEMA is not prepared.

McConnell returns to the Senate for the first time since his June hospitalization WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky returned to the Senate to vote on Monday for the first time in three months, looking noticeably more frail after he was hospitalized for a June fall in his home. https://apnews.com/article/mitch-mcconnell-senate-return-abe03e84e30a174da4076385692b5751?

A Vermont man is on trial for shooting 3 Palestinian students. He claimed the CIA told him to do it Jason Eaton insisted he was acting on orders from the CIA and Mossad when he shot three Palestinian college students who were walking past his home a few days after Thanksgiving. He said the U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies transmitted the messages to him via FM radio and that God was commanding him to protect his Jewish neighbors. Read More.

United Kingdom's unity threatened by pact between Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland The leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland signed a pact Monday that threatens to lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom. Read More.

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Delaware’s state primary Delaware’s Democratic U.S. senator, U.S. representative and state attorney general will go before voters in a state primary Tuesday as they seek reelection. Voters also will choose nominees for state Legislature and for an open seat for state treasurer. Read More.

America's public data has a trust problem. Now what? Americans are calling for better data and better discourse. How can we answer that call? https://usafacts.org/articles/americas-data-has-a-trust-problem-now-what/? Are AI data centers driving up your electric bill? A USAFacts deep dive. Grab your favorite beverage and comfiest chair, because we’re going to learn some things. https://usafacts.org/articles/are-ai-data-centers-driving-up-your-electric-bill/? One last fact Every state has some form of mail-in voting. And although “voting by mail” and “absentee voting” both often refer to mailed-in ballots and are sometimes used interchangeably, they differ slightly. Voting by mail is a voting method. According to the Census Bureau, 29% of voters nationwide voted by mail in the 2024 presidential election. Eight states mail ballots to every registered voter in their state. In states where in-person Election Day voting is the norm, “absentee” is most commonly used to describe voters who request to submit their ballots by mail, drop-off, or early in-person voting because they are unable to vote on Election Day.

Cosmic clue Did you know that dark matter makes up about 85% of all the matter in the universe? Scientists say they’ve detected an intriguing signal that could shed some light on the elusive substance.