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Trump rally President Trump said Monday that America's 250th anniversary celebration on the National Mall next month will include a "TRUMP RALLY" on July 4. The announcement was notable, as events marking Independence Day are typically nonpartisan. It also comes as Trump has drawn criticism for turning otherwise apolitical events into personal showcases. Read more.

Southern floods A prolonged stretch of heavy rain is raising flood concerns across Texas and parts of the Gulf Coast this week, fueled by a system that could become the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season. Flood watches are in effect for nearly 18 million people from central Texas to central Mississippi, and officials are urging residents to monitor conditions closely after flooding in Texas turned deadly on Monday. Read more. STAY AHEAD: Sign up for the CNN Weather newsletter and download the CNN Weather app.

Primaries Voters head to the polls today in primaries across Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Washington, DC. Much of the attention is on Georgia, where Republicans are set to pick nominees in a high-stakes contest to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in one of November's most closely watched races. Read more. MORE: New CNN poll shows nearly half of Americans don't consider themselves Democrats or Republicans

G7 summit The leaders of the world's most powerful nations are meeting in the French alpine resort of Évian-les-Bains as they confront a long list of geopolitical and economic challenges. Russia's war in Ukraine is expected to dominate the agenda, alongside growing anticipation over the working agreement between the US and Iran, with many officials still waiting to see the terms. Read more. ANALYSIS: Obama's Iran deal vs. Trump's promised deal

I like the presenter. It's interesting.

June 16, 2026 By Sam Sifton Good morning. The world’s attention is on the Middle East. Tehran yesterday. Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times What could go wrong? The United States and Iran have signed a framework agreement for peace after three and a half months of hostilities. And yesterday, fighting in Lebanon, where Israel has been pounding Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, did in fact ease. The price of oil fell. Ordinary Iranians breathed a cautious sigh of relief. So did others all over the world. Maybe after thousands of deaths and the bludgeoning of the world’s economy, this conflict could be coming to an end? If it is ending, it will be without any of the results President Trump was looking for when he started it: the destruction of Iran’s ability to wage war; the crushing of its nuclear ambitions; the end of its theocratic leadership; and the liberation of its people. Accordingly, the two sides will work out the details of this deal against a backdrop of real wariness. The terms of the framework remain a secret. All we really know is that the countries and their representatives have agreed to take the next 60 days to negotiate a final deal over long-term limits on Iran’s nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions against it. Will that actually happen? Or will it all fall apart? My colleague Lara Jakes, who covers conflict and diplomacy, laid out the possibilities. She sees six of them. Why the deal might succeed Everyone wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping. Iranian attacks on ships in the waterway, along with a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, have effectively choked off this vital artery for so much of the world’s oil and gas. Energy prices have soared, and the global economy has suffered. An open strait would allow for eventual relief. And lower gas prices in the United States could prove a political boon for Trump as the midterm elections approach. Note: Data may not include all activity because some vessels have turned off tracking capabilities during the war. Source: Lloyd’s List. The New York Times Everyone’s stretched thin militarily. The Pentagon has put a lot of ships and troops in and around the Persian Gulf, potentially leaving the United States on the back foot in other parts of the world. That’s particularly true in Europe, where NATO continues to help Ukraine fight Russia, and in Taiwan and South Korea, which are concerned about China. And while U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran retains more ordnance than expected, Tehran has still launched more than 1,500 missiles and nearly 5,000 drones since the start of the war. It’s not as if those weapons grow on trees. And Trump really, really wants the win. He campaigned on a platform of “America First” and a cessation of inflation. Now his approval ratings have gone to new lows and some in his party have broken with him in advance of the midterms. Trump wants to declare victory here and move on. Why the deal might not succeed The site of an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut on Sunday. Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times Israel wants to keep fighting in Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu helped push Trump toward war in February. But Israel has not been involved in U.S. negotiations with Iran and, indeed, kept striking Hezbollah over the weekend, endangering the talks. Both Iran and Pakistan, which has been an important mediator, say that the agreement demands an end to military operations everywhere in the region, including Lebanon. But Netanyahu said yesterday that he has no intention of withdrawing his forces. Sanctions and frozen assets. Trump has lashed out at Barack Obama for years for the agreement his administration reached with Iran in 2015, which gave Tehran financial relief in exchange for reductions in its nuclear program. Trump pulled out of that deal in his first term, and he does not want to return to it now. Iran, of course, wants financial sanctions against it eased. It also wants access to billions of dollars in assets frozen in foreign banks. That’ll be quite the discussion. The nuclear program. Trump was abundantly clear that he took the United States to war to make sure that Iran would never, ever develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran contends that its ambitions are to develop nuclear power only for civilian use, and that it has a right to do so under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. There’s a huge delta between those two arguments. Quarreling over a compromise could derail even the best-laid plans. More on the deal In the Strait of Hormuz, naval mines may still stall shipping. Iran indicated that it intended to charge fees to use the strait. The war drove up the cost of gas, food and more in the United States. Even if peace is achieved, higher prices could persist into next year, economists say. A day before the countries signed their framework agreement, Trump called David E. Sanger, our national security correspondent, to discuss the arrangement. David explains what happened on the call. Click to play. The New York Times THE LATEST NEWS G7 Summit A G7 working dinner yesterday. Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times Trump is in France to meet with world leaders at the annual G7 summit. Among his goals: securing international help in removing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz. Volodymyr Zelensky is trying to shift leaders’ attention to the war with Russia. Read the latest updates. Politics In the Reflecting Pool. Alex Kent/The New York Times Crews just completed Trump’s $14 million renovation of the Reflecting Pool in Washington, coating its floor in dark blue. The water is already green again. Gavin Newsom said the Justice Department was investigating him and his wife. He accused Trump of using the agency to punish political enemies. Two groups are planning events for America’s 250th anniversary. One, America 250, was created by Congress, and the other, Freedom 250, by Trump. That has led to confusion. Congressional Democrats said officials could face fines or prosecution if they go forward with Trump’s 250-foot arch. Around the World China’s retail sales fell in May. It was the first year-on-year fall since 2022, and it reflects a prolonged housing crash. Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high to head off inflation from rising energy costs. In Ukraine, Zelensky called Monday’s strike on a cathedral “one of the largest Russian crimes against Christian culture.” Other Big Stories Eight crew members died when a B-52 bomber crashed at Edwards Air Force Base in California during a routine test mission. Fox is buying Roku, which makes streaming devices, for $22 billion. A 14-year-old boy accused of flashing a gun to rob a children’s lemonade stand in Boston was charged with armed robbery. INSIDE EPSTEIN’S LAST DAYS Helmuth Rosales and Katherine Chui/The New York Times Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? His 2019 death in federal custody, ruled a suicide by New York City’s chief medical examiner, has been the subject of widespread public suspicion and intrigue. The Times reviewed thousands of pages of newly released documents, obtained Epstein’s own handwritten jail notes — never before made public — and interviewed dozens of people to better understand the circumstances surrounding his death. The reporters found that gaining access to his cell would almost certainly have required an elaborate plot involving numerous participants with extensive, precise knowledge of the jail’s security systems and protocols. They found no indication that such a plot had existed. By contrast, they discovered abundant evidence that Epstein had written about and discussed suicide for weeks before his death, and that he had attempted it at least once, and possibly as many as three times. Read the full investigation into Epstein’s death. (You can also see six takeaways from the reporters and his handwritten notes.) OPINIONS What happens if Democrats and Republicans take redistricting to its most extreme? Nathaniel Rakich maps out the possibilities. War has only bolstered Iran’s image as a symbol of global defiance, Azadeh Moaveni writes. It’s on: The Wordle challenge. Celebrate 5 years of the game. Solve each day’s puzzle through Friday and earn a special badge. Play now MORNING READS A ranch in Box Elder County, Utah. Kim Raff for The New York Times A wonderful data center? Utahns are revolting against Kevin O’Leary, a.k.a. Mr. Wonderful, and his A.I. construction project on the Great Salt Lake. Stage animal: At a theater in Turkey, a “Romeo and Juliet” ballet had its tragic finale upended by a cat. Watch the video. Accident: An acclaimed extreme athlete who performed at the Super Bowl was one of two people killed in a tandem BASE jump in Utah. Your pick: The most-clicked story in The Morning yesterday was about a deepfake expert who no longer trusts himself. (I did say you should go read it start to finish.) Metropolitan Diary: A rare bird for Midtown. TODAY’S NUMBER $875,000 — That is roughly how much imaginary money we’re giving you to buy (in your mind’s eye) a home in Montreal. Which of these three would you choose? WORLD CUP Vozinha saving a goal for Cape Verde. Jacob Kupferman/Associated Press Cape Verde: It was gritty, gutsy, glorious and goalless. Cape Verde, a major underdog, drew with Spain, a tournament favorite. It was one of the World Cup’s biggest surprises ever. The goalie: Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper made seven saves. He also gained millions of Instagram followers during and after the game, ESPN reports. Iran: Some people booed the Iranian national anthem in the country’s first match, against New Zealand. That was another tie, 2-2. RECIPE OF THE DAY Linda Xiao for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Sue Li. Here’s a weeknight take on some spiced grilled lamb kebabs from the Adana region of Turkey, transformed into meatballs you can roast in the oven and then serve with pita or rice. The recipe calls for a mixture of ground lamb and ground beef. You can go all in on one or the other if you like — I do that with lamb. AMERICAN ARCADIA Thomas Cole, “The Consummation of Empire” (1836). The New York Historical Society T Magazine devotes itself this week to American artists and the search for utopia, and among other delights offers eight proposals for a better art world. More on culture Here’s my colleague Lauretta Charlton’s review of “Something We Said: Richard Pryor, a Notorious Word, and Me,” by Elizabeth Stordeur Pryor, the comedian’s daughter. The book saddens her, she writes, even when it’s courageous. And Pryor the father, flawed as he was, isn’t why. Even if you’re not going to be in Dallas during the World Cup, this list of the best restaurants in the Metroplex is worth considering. It’s good to dream of wide-open spaces and delicious food. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS Netflix released a new adaptation of “Lord of the Flies” in May. J Redza/Eleven and Sony Pictures Television, via Netflix Watch the best TV shows of the year so far, according to the discerning critics at The Times. Eat froyo. Not too much. Mostly strawberry. (Those first two recs come from the Well desk. The third’s all me.) GAMES Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were apathetic, hepatic and pathetic. And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Crossplay and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times and me. See you tomorrow. — Sam Correction: As quite a few of you got in touch to say, we had an unfortunate typo in yesterday’s newsletter. We said the Carolina Hurricanes had last won a Stanley Cup in 2026. They did win in 2026, of course. But the last time was in 2006. We appreciate your close attention. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Host: Sam Sifton Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Evan Gorelick, Brent Lewis, Lara McCoy, Karl Russell Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Editorial Director, Newsletters: Jodi Rudoren

THIS DAY IN HISTORY June 16 1884 First roller coaster in America opens The first roller coaster in America opens at Coney Island, in Brooklyn, New York. Known as a switchback railway, it was the brainchild of LaMarcus Thompson, traveled approximately six miles per hour and cost a nickel to ride. read more Sponsored Content by REVCONTENT Arts & Entertainment 1965 Bob Dylan records “Like A Rolling Stone” 1943 Charlie Chaplin marries Oona O’Neill 1961 Russian ballet star Rudolf Nureyev defects from USSR Civil War 1862 Union thwarted at the Battle of Secessionville Cold War 1977 Leonid Brezhnev is elected Soviet president Crime 1999 SLA member captured after more than 20 years Inventions & Science 1903 Ford Motor Company incorporated Space Exploration 1963 Soviet cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova becomes the first woman in space U.S. Presidents 1858 Lincoln warns that America is becoming a “house divided”

🦊 Fox's new era Data: Nielsen. Chart: Axios Visuals Fox's $22 billion deal to buy Roku marks a turning point in the streaming wars and a new era for the Murdoch media empire, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes. Why it matters: The agreement represents the biggest bet made by Lachlan Murdoch since he was named Fox's chairman and CEO in 2019. The big picture: Streaming is no longer a paid subscriber race. It's an opportunity for entertainment giants to accelerate other parts of their businesses where they have a competitive edge against Netflix. For Apple, Amazon, Disney and Comcast/NBCUniversal, that means selling devices, e-commerce subscriptions, parks/movie tickets and broadband, respectively. For Fox, it means bringing more eyeballs to its live programming and selling more digital TV ads. 📺 How it works: The merger would make Fox the owner of the top digital TV operating system in the U.S. Fox could promote its content and apps to the 100 million global households that subscribe to Roku. It would have global distribution to leverage in sports rights deals.

🤖 Anthropic crackdown's hidden risk Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images As the Trump administration shapes its AI regulatory regime in real time, the precedents it sets could reverberate far beyond an individual showdown with Anthropic, Axios' Mike Zapler writes. Why it matters: The move against Anthropic — which came as the Pentagon was already tangling with the company — has some foreign governments doubting they can depend on U.S. AI. 🔬 Zoom in: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday that the "situation we're in collectively right now with Mythos and Fable is something that can happen with overreliance on certain models. You'll hear me say this over and over again. It is never a good idea to have one option." Early this month, the European Union launched a "tech sovereignty" initiative to reduce dependence on foreign technology providers, including American AI and cloud companies. It wants to dramatically expand data centers and semiconductor production. The bottom line: Consulting firm Gartner noted yesterday that this was the first time that a government has intervened to block access to an AI model customers were already using — and warned it probably won't be the last.

🛢️ Charted: 43-year low Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Chart: Emily Peck/Axios The U.S. oil stockpile is at its lowest level since July 1983, Axios' Emily Peck writes. The U.S. now has 340.3 million barrels in the stockpile — below the low reached during the Biden administration. The previous administration drew criticism when it drew down the reserves to help keep oil prices lower after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

⚡ Scoop: CIA director's Iran doubts CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that intelligence gathered by U.S. spies raises serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Ratcliffe isn't the only skeptic on Trump's top team. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have both expressed concerns and raised questions about the deal in internal discussions. Vice President Vance and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advocated for it. Vance will attend Friday's formal signing ceremony in Geneva. 👀 Behind the scenes: Trump and his advisers held a series of high-level meetings in the lead-up to Sunday's announcement of the deal. During those meetings, Trump and his team discussed the intelligence: Iranian officials were discussing the deal among themselves in a way that was inconsistent with what they were telling the mediators and the U.S., two sources said. Ratcliffe and Rubio said that based on that intel, they doubted the Iranians would agree to take the nuclear steps the U.S. was seeking, according to two sources. "The intelligence reflects that the Iranian intentions are not in line with their commitments under the deal," the source said. Zoom out: The nuclear elements of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that was signed electronically on Sunday depend on the parties reaching a more detailed nuclear deal over the next 60 days. Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are expected to meet on Friday with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with Pakistani and Qatari mediators, to discuss that next phase. 👓 Between the lines: The text of the 14-point initial deal has yet to be published. A source familiar with the text contended that the Iranians will get more than they give under the MOU — unless they agree to sign a nuclear deal that meets the U.S. objectives. Keep reading.

💡 Brad Smith on AI-era jobs: "Let's not panic" Mike Allen interviews Brad Smith. Screenshot: Axios Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft, slammed tech moguls for hypocritical, grandiose warnings that are alienating Americans at a time of huge workforce opportunity. "Nobody knows for sure, but let's not panic," Smith, who has been with Microsoft for 33 years, said from the tech giant's headquarters in Redmond, Wash. Why it matters: Smith is among the tech leaders who think dire predictions about AI's threat to entry-level white-collar jobs are souring young Americans on a miraculous technology. Watch our video. In our interview, Smith said tech leaders have botched the conversation about AI and jobs: Hypocritical warnings: In an essay this month, Anthropic pointed to benefits of slowing AI development "to give ourselves more time to deal with its immense implications" — a so-called global pause. Smith told me: "If somebody says, 'This technology is so powerful that we need a global treaty to slow it down,' then I would say: Then take your foot off the accelerator yourself if you think it's moving too fast." Scaring grads: Echoing points Jim VandeHei and I made in our recent "Rattled Generation" column, Smith noted that this year's graduates were in high school during COVID and have done much of their socializing through screens, against a backdrop of political turmoil. "Now, they finally get to enter the workforce and here comes AI?" he said. "Too often, this is being presented to them as something that is going to happen to them, not for them." Short-term distortion: "This is going to unfold over 25 years, not two-and-a-half," Smith said. "But look, if you're trying to raise money as entrepreneurs need to do, it's easier to raise money if people think it's going to happen sooner rather than later." Unrealistic hype: "Tech leaders tend to repeat two mistakes," he said. "One is: They overestimate the impact of technology, especially the pace at which it will arrive. And second: The tech leaders often underestimate people." Fake certainty: "You find that the same folks who made the wrong predictions a decade ago keep making them with extraordinary conviction," Smith said. "And it makes great fodder for people who generate stories for a living." Hollow calls for regulation: He said we're seeing a flashback to the past decade's debates over social media legislation. "You had some companies that said, 'We want legislation,' and then they basically opposed every bill in Congress because they never liked it specifically." He said that on AI policy, beware "ideas that are so grandiose that the chance of them being adopted is zero." Watch our interview ... Read Brad Smith's post, "AI, jobs, and the next generation."

Campaign ad fakery Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images Campaign ads featuring AI-generated clips and images are now everywhere, with attack ads that place candidates in a wide variety of compromising and fictitious situations, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. Why it matters: This largely unregulated practice is blurring the line between truth and fiction. The latest spot to push the envelope is an attack ad against Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico from a Trump-aligned group called Citizens for Sanity. The ad depicts Talarico in a dress singing an abridged version of "Favorite Things" about transgender children. 🔎 Zoom in: Last month's GOP primary in Kentucky's 4th district, which Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost after being savaged by President Trump, saw widespread AI use by both sides. That included a "throuple" ad containing deepfakes of dining, checking into a hotel and holding hands with Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Pro-Massie spots used AI to depict an elephant with Trump-like hair and a MAGA cap, and Ed Gallrein, Massie's challenger, abandoning Trump in a foxhole. AI-generated image. Screenshot: AdImpact 🍑 In Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Brad Raffensperger used AI in multiple ads to depict his GOP primary opponents wildly shooting guns in the air and fighting each other with pugil sticks. A new ad from another Georgia gubernatorial candidate, Burt Jones, is entirely AI-generated and portrays his GOP primary runoff opponent, Rick Jackson, shoveling money into a furnace. Democrats are also using AI: In Texas, Crockett used AI to inflate the crowd size in one of her ads and posted an AI video to social media of herself, Trump and others as babies. In New York City, Andrew Cuomo used AI in the mayoral election in an ad that portrayed him performing various jobs, including subway conductor, stockbroker, stagehand, and window washer. 🔮 What's next: Some campaigns voluntarily disclose this AI use, but it's not required. Democrats want to change that if they retake control of Congress in November.

Neural Speech Milestone A 47-year-old father with ALS has used a brain implant to communicate with roughly 92% accuracy for nearly two years, the longest-running demonstration of speech communication through a brain-computer interface. The at-home system, described in a study released yesterday, converts brain signals into near-instant speech, letting Casey Harrell communicate independently and conversationally. Four implants, each packed with 64 tiny electrodes, record activity from the brain's speech-control region. When Harrell tries to speak, AI decodes the signals into text and a synthetic voice modeled on recordings of his pre-ALS voice. The translation happens at about 56 words per minute. Harrell had surgery in 2023; the study reports on the first 23 months following the procedure. Over time, the device has evolved into more than a speech tool, allowing Harrell to operate a computer, surf the web, send texts and emails, and enable a profanity filter when talking to his young daughter. See it in action (w/video).

When Play Doh was first developed in the 1930s, it wasn’t a toy… it was a way to clean wallpaper. James

Iran coach says team ordered out of US right after 2-2 draw with New Zealand in World Cup opener INGLEWOOD, Calif. (AP) — The coach of Iran’s World Cup team said it was ordered to leave the U.S. and return to its training base in Mexico only a few hours after opening its politically charged tournament by playing to a 2-2 draw with New Zealand on Monday night. https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-iran-new-zealand-score-314655749d94fe577bb2b52ebd6b32c4?

🎶 Parting shot: Hallelujah, Montreal Photo: Steve Ward During a morning stroll through a Montreal neighborhood, Finish Line reader Steve Ward and his wife came across this striking mural of Leonard Cohen — a towering tribute to one of the city's most beloved artists.

Yale's happiness guru Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images If happiness science had a celebrity, it'd be Yale Professor Laurie Santos, Axios' Natalie Daher writes. 📚 Santos' class on well-being was Yale's most popular in 300 years when she introduced it in 2018. She's since launched her own podcast and appeared in dozens of interviews, proving demand for her work extends far beyond the classroom. 🔭 The big picture: Santos' core belief is that you can't optimize your way to happiness — but there are steps you can take to see your emotions and your life in new ways. She notes that Americans are uniquely compelled to find silver linings, even in grief, in ways other cultures simply aren't. For Santos, happiness has two parts: how you feel and how you think your life is going. Chasing "good vibes only" won't get you there. "Happiness isn't about getting rid of your negative emotions. That's toxic positivity," she told The New York Times' Lulu Garcia-Navarro in a recent appearance on "The Interview" podcast. Instead, "you have a sense of meaning. You have a sense of purpose. It feels good to be you because of how you think it's going." Zoom in: For students glued to screens instead of talking to each other, Santos has a reframe: Negative emotions are signals, not failures. Loneliness means: Seek connection. Overwhelm means: You've taken on too much. 📱 Between the lines: Santos argues technology, including AI, will make isolation worse. The desire to connect with a real person — over a flattering, always-available chatbot — will only get harder to sustain. As she puts it, technological advancement has always made us less social: "We go to the ATM now — we don't have to talk to a teller. We don't go to a record store and talk with people about records to get our music — we just have an algorithm deliver it to us." 💡 More takeaways from Santos' research: Social connection is the clearest driver of happiness. When small talk presents itself, take it. Time famine is real, but it's also a perception problem. We have more free time than humans did even 20 years ago, but it's fragmented into "time confetti" that we fill with scrolling instead of connection. Solo time isn't automatically bad. Contemplation and solitude can have real value. The problem is the self-judgment that creeps in when we think we should be connecting instead. 💭 Natalie's thought bubble: I interviewed Santos back in 2019 — which feels like ancient history after living through the pandemic. Her advice is even more essential now. 🎧 Watch Santos on "The Interview" ... Listen to her podcast "The Happiness Lab."

What is the US poverty rate? The poverty rate was about 10.6% of the US population as of 2024. The poverty rate is the percentage of people whose household income falls below the poverty threshold set by the government. It measures the percentage of people in households that don’t earn enough to pay for basic needs like food, housing, and healthcare. In 2024, 35.9 million people lived in poverty. https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-us-poverty-rate/country/united-states/? How many people skip medical treatment due to healthcare costs? In 2025, 26% of American adults skipped some form of medical treatment because they couldn’t afford it, according to the Federal Reserve. This is lower than the 28% who avoided care in 2024 and is the lowest percentage since 2022. https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-skip-medical-treatment-due-to-healthcare-costs/? One last fact Friday is Juneteenth, a federal holiday that commemorates the end of slavery in the United States. W.E.B. Du Bois, a pioneer in many ways, was also a pioneer in data visualization. He documented Black life in America in the generations after slavery, and he presented hand-drawn charts on the topic at the 1900 Paris Exposition. See them here.

😈 Republicans take revenge Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios House Democrats are seething over what is, by all indications, a nationwide Republican effort to elevate Democratic primary candidates viewed as more beatable in November. Why it matters: This once-rare practice is becoming commonplace. Democrats did it in 2022 and 2024, and one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told us it "seems like the new normal." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has publicly blasted Republicans on the subject, writing in a post on X last week: "Stay the Hell out of our races with your malignant and desperate scheming." Driving the news: A trio of obscure super PACs with progressive-sounding names have cropped up in recent months to support more left-leaning or scandal-tarnished candidates in key battleground districts. Lead Left PAC played in Nebraska's 2nd District, Pennsylvania's 7th and — most infamously — Texas' 35th, where it reported spending over $1 million to boost Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist whose comments widely seen as antisemitic became a major flashpoint before she lost in a primary runoff. Real Change PAC spent big to oppose the more moderate Democratic primary candidates in New Jersey's 7th, Maine's 2nd and California's 22nd. Progressive Champions PAC is spending at least $1.5 million against centrist Cait Conley in New York's 17th district. Between the lines: Republicans have played coy about their alleged role in these efforts, but there are clues pointing to their involvement. Lead Left PAC's website — which says the group "stands against MAGA extremists" and — included a link to the GOP fundraising site WinRed in its metadata, according to Punchbowl News. When one signs up for Real Change PAC's email list, the group responds with an email from GOP consulting firm Cavalry LLC, as Axios first reported. Progressive Champions PAC and Real Change PAC list the same bank of record on their FEC filings, with both reportedly using the same, Republican-affiliated compliance filing software. What we're hearing: One former House Republican with knowledge of the effort, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive details, told us this is simply the GOP fighting fire with fire. "After Dems ran these fake PACs two years ago, Republicans have entered the fray with the same strategy," the former lawmaker told Axios. New York's 17th District, they added, is "one of the districts [where] it's being employed." Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told us that GOP spending in Democratic primaries is "awful" but was "inevitable" after Democrats adopted the tactic in the Biden years. Yes, but: A former House Democrat involved in the 2022 and 2024 elections noted there were "no fake shell Dem PACs from those years." In 2022, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC meddled directly in GOP primaries. In 2024, a group called Duty and Country — which had public ties to Democrats' Senate Majority PAC — supported now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) in his GOP primary. What they're saying: Democrats "aren't happy" that Republicans are "trying to help the far left," a senior House Democrat told us. "This type of spending is as prevalent as it is awful — by Dems and Republicans," Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.) told us. The bottom line: This is all made possible in part by campaign finance laws allowing these groups to keep their funding sources hidden until after primary day. "If only Congress had the ability to do something about these super PACs," Olszewski told us sarcastically, adding, "Oh wait." — Andrew Solender

Muddy Results (Reuters)   View in browser Declaring that “the deal is all signed” with Iran, as President Trump did today, is like shopping for a wedding dress after a good first date: It’s just too soon. A deal has an element of finality and permanence. A nuclear deal with Iran, for example, would require specific obligations, concessions, and verification measures, such as inspections, agreed to by all parties. What Iran and the United States are moving toward, with a signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva, is an agreement that could set the conditions for a potential deal. In the meantime, the war’s shaky cease-fire would be extended for 60 days and commercial shipping would once again transit the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded. (Neither side has released the agreed-upon text, although U.S. officials said today that Trump, Vice President Vance, and the speaker of Iran’s Parliament have already digitally signed on the dotted line.) If all goes to plan, both sides would then use the breathing room to address more complicated issues, such as how to manage Iran’s nuclear program, just as they were doing before February 28, when Trump went to war. Although the war has weakened Iran’s military, killed members of its leadership, and put pressure on Tehran, the memorandum of understanding is also an acknowledgment that the U.S. cannot solve the problem of Iran with either a war or economic pressure. Despite the thousands of strikes, and the damage done to Iran’s oil-export-driven economy, the U.S. has little choice but to try diplomacy again. Another mark of how much the U.S. has deviated from its aims at the conflict’s outset is the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. Its centrality to the new memorandum might suggest that Iran’s blockage of the narrow channel was a reason for the U.S. and Israel to go to war in the first place. Not so. The strait was open on the day the war started. Iran closed it, snarling global energy-supply chains, to gain exactly the leverage now being employed at the negotiating table. By contrast, none of Trump’s initial goals for the conflict has been achieved. The negotiations are designed to address the nuclear program, but it is not clear whether reducing Iran’s missile batteries and its proxy militias will be on the agenda for the 60-day talks, or the additional negotiating increments that will almost certainly follow. “I worry about results, and I worry about getting to a place that is good for the American people,” Vance told us in a brief interview. “Right now, we’re on a pathway to get to a very good place for our country. I want to keep on working towards that end.” Maybe at the end of that cycle, the U.S. and Iran will have an agreement worth calling a deal. The results of the war have been muddy enough that hawks on each side want to see a convincing victory and believe that such an outcome might still be within reach. “The Islamic Republic is not a problem that can be negotiated away,” Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote on X yesterday. He suggested that the United States should support Iranians in overthrowing the regime, something that Trump signaled he favored at the start of the war but has since abandoned. “The only solution is maximum support for the Iranian people,” Dubowitz continued. “Given the opportunity and assistance they need, they can cripple—and ultimately end—this terrorist regime.” Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Trump ally who strongly supported military action, suggested on X that the U.S. is giving up too much too quickly just to secure the strait’s reopening, even though its closure has sent energy prices soaring. Graham, who rarely criticizes the president directly, said that he was “pleased” that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen but was “somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming.” He didn’t provide specifics, and accounts vary regarding exactly how and when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Graham also reminded Trump that any nuclear deal would need Congress’s formal sign-off, and he heaped pressure on Vance, a presumed candidate for president in 2028, to make the case on Capitol Hill. Other GOP Iran hawks were notably quiet in the hours after Trump’s triumphant announcement yesterday. Rather than cheering the news, party leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, celebrated the president’s 80th birthday and the Ultimate Fighting Championship event at the White House. Neither Johnson nor Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said anything official or substantial about the Iran development since. About a dozen other Republican backers of the Iran war either declined or did not respond to requests for interviews or comment—hardly a ringing endorsement of their president’s negotiating prowess. Critics of Trump’s Iran policy on the right and the left found some unity in demanding to see the full text of the memorandum, viewing its secrecy as a sign that American negotiators had whiffed. “Trump must release the details publicly, brief Congress immediately, and end this war for good,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. U.S. officials, briefing reporters earlier today, said the text would be released but didn’t say when. Meanwhile, Iranian hard-liners (some of whom came to power when other leaders were killed in the war), as well as members of Iran’s Parliament and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, argue that Iran was too quick to surrender the leverage that Tehran gained by closing the strait. They want guarantees of long-term economic relief, not temporary understandings or the extension of an already fragile cease-fire, which Trump once described as “shooting in a more moderate manner.” Both the regime and hawks in Iran “want to turn this strategic moment into a new reality in the region, while gaining economic benefits,” Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told us. The difference between the hawks and the decision makers is that the decision makers “don’t want to go back to a hot war” and want to prioritize the regime’s survival. U.S. officials told reporters that no frozen Iranian assets have yet been released and that any initial relief would consist of limited, reciprocal “small gestures” intended to build trust. But Tehran has reasons to be hopeful. “What you’ll see is that, you know, we are prepared to release frozen funds, and we are prepared to release sanctions,” one of the U.S. officials said. That may serve to only further infuriate the hawks in Washington. Around the time that Trump said a deal had been reached, Israel launched strikes inside Beirut, retaliating against Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy. Tehran had linked any agreement to a cessation of strikes inside Lebanon. But U.S. officials have said that an agreement was not conditional on Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon and stressed that any cease-fire would not be one-sided, and would preserve Israel’s right to respond to Hezbollah attacks. Israel’s latest strikes likely reinforced Tehran’s belief that Washington cannot constrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not ready for even a temporary arrangement. “We know the near entirety of the Israeli political spectrum is unhappy about what is transpiring,” H. A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute International, told us. “I think between now and Friday, publicly or privately, we are going to be seeing a lot of tension between Washington and Tel Aviv about what this deal means for Lebanon in particular.” Hellyer suggested that Netanyahu was unlikely to respond to rhetoric about the need for Israel to stand down, which would require Washington to look for greater sources of leverage, such as withholding arms sales and aid. If the Trump administration isn’t willing to go that far, Tehran may question Trump’s commitment to the prevention of Iran’s nuclear development. Central to the negotiation is enforcement, U.S. officials told reporters, in which sanctions relief would be tied not to any single action but to Iranian behavior. The message is “everything is on the table” if Iran complies—and nothing is if it does not. U.S. officials acknowledged that cease-fires and transitions from conflict to peace are inherently messy, and they warned that implementation challenges are likely and could possibly include violations by hard-line factions inside Iran. But officials held out hope that successful negotiations, with the support of others in the region such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, could encourage Tehran to become a more constructive regional actor. The ultimate test, of course, is whether signing a memorandum can translate to a durable peace before domestic politics or regional instability scupper its chances. Trump may be unlikely to restart the war—as he has threatened to do if the talks don’t go well—especially given the proximity of the midterm elections. But don’t expect U.S. troops to return home anytime soon. The U.S. will maintain its current military posture in the region for now, the U.S. officials said. Any reduction in U.S. forces will depend on Iran following through on its commitments under an agreement that has not yet been reached—and that may not be for some time. Related: Tom Nichols: Trump celebrates while America capitulates. One of these Trump threats is not like the others.