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💸 Charted: The great AI wealth transfer Data: FactSet. (Hyperscalers are Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle. Semiconductor companies are Nvidia, Broadcom, Applied Materials and Micron.) Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios A "generational transfer" of cash is underway from AI hyperscalers to chipmakers, according to Bank of America analysts. Hyperscalers — think Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — are plowing so much into chips and compute that it's draining their own free cash flow (cash left over after covering expenses and investments), Axios' Matt Phillips writes.

Stark quotes: Biden aides wish they'd been tougher on Israel The Shafei family eats during Ramadan last year in the remains of their home in Gaza. The image was part of a portfolio that won the Pulitzer for Breaking News Photography. Photo: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times Former President Biden unintentionally emboldened Israeli aggression against Gaza and Iran by repeatedly deferring decisions on withholding weapons, The New Yorker's David D. Kirkpatrick writes in an article out today, "The Enabler." Alarms about potential war crimes "began ringing inside the Biden Administration soon after Israel began its counterattack on Gaza" after the Hamas-led assault of Oct. 7, 2023, writes Kirkpatrick, who interviewed more than a dozen former senior Biden officials for the 13-page piece. Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, told Kirkpatrick: "I will say straightforwardly — we should have put more pressure on Israel to take a different approach." Sullivan said Biden and top advisers feared that taking action to make Israel better protect civilians "risked both failing to change Israeli policy and leading Hamas to increase its demands." Sullivan said the administration "seriously thought about making a decisive break with Israel" in the spring of 2024, "in the run-up to Rafah, when Hamas was stalling in negotiations," and again in July 2024, "when Hamas was coming back." But risks abounded: "What about the hostages? What about Israel under attack from all sides? What effect would it have on the ceasefire talks and bringing this god-awful war to an end?" Former Secretary of State Tony Blinken told The New Yorker: "How can you not have regrets [about the Gaza conflict] given the toll that this took on innocent men, women and children?" But he repeated the gist of a Biden quote: "Question my judgments. Don't question my motives." Jon Finer — Biden's principal deputy national security adviser, and a former Washington Post correspondent who had covered previous Israeli military operations in Gaza — said: "It's obvious now, and was pretty clear then, that [Israel] simply did not tell us the truth about their plans and their timelines, and it made no sense to accept those claims at face value." Keep reading.

U.S. hits Iran again after troop deaths Satellite image shows Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan in February. Image: Planet Labs via Reuters The U.S. military launched fresh strikes against Iran last night after announcing the death of a soldier and the recovery of another's remains, Axios' Barak Ravid and Rebecca Falconer write. CENTCOM said an American service member was killed Saturday in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian attack drone. It also revealed that "unidentified remains" were found at the location of an Iranian missile attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan that killed two American troops on Friday. One soldier had been missing. President Trump told reporters that the U.S. hit Iran "very hard again." "We feel very badly, but you know those great people, those great patriots, were out there fighting that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," he said. If the remains are confirmed to be a U.S. soldier, it would bring the American death toll in the war to 18. Keep reading.

⚽ The winning goal Covers: ABC and El País, two of Madrid's largest papers. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time, winning the World Cup and bringing the curtain down on the largest and flashiest tournament soccer has ever seen. President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump and global politicians and celebrities attended the World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Spain's Ferran Torres scored the match's only goal in the 106th minute, in the second period of extra time. Spain controlled the game, taking the first 20 shots before Argentina got its first attempt off in the second half of extra time. Only the record-breaking 11 saves by Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez kept the team in the match despite their otherwise lackluster performance. Argentina's Lionel Messi, 39, broke down in tears after what could be his last World Cup game. Two decades after his 2006 debut as an 18-year-old, the player many consider the greatest ever came up one game short. He had previously said the 2022 World Cup would be his last. If he plays in 2030, Messi would be among the oldest players ever at a World Cup. 🇪🇸 Spain's domination: The team — nicknamed La Roja for their red jerseys — suffocated opponents, allowing just one goal in the entire tournament. They also set a record for the longest undefeated run (38 games) in men's international football history. 🏆 The country of 49 million people is now the reigning champion of three of the sport's biggest tournaments: the World Cup, the Euros and the Olympics. Spain also won the last Women's World Cup three years ago. 📱 Watch the winning goal ... Tournament takeaways: From video reviews to hydration breaks.

🤖 AI drug boom Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images A proprietary survey shows AI is fueling automation that's changing the trajectory of early-stage pharma research, Axios' Adriel Bettelheim writes. Why it matters: The TD Cowen survey of 80 biopharma leaders and insiders finds AI is reducing drug developers' preclinical costs and timelines by as much as 70%. That's fueling demand for cutting-edge software, sequencing tools and computer models that will help churn out more experimental treatments in the next five years. 🖼️ The big picture: AI can't replace scientific intuition. But the way it can streamline the grueling R&D before human testing begins is making computer screens as important a feature of drug design as traditional laboratories. Brendan Smith, director of life sciences equity research at TD Cowen, says the hope is to generate large amounts of data to train the AI models and increase the odds of clinical success. 🥊 Reality check: AI hasn't yet discovered a drug that's won FDA approval. Keep reading ...

⛽ Gas back to $4 Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images The national average price of regular gas poked above $4 a gallon again this morning, hitting $4.003 on AAA's tracker. Why it matters: Midterms are 106 days away, and the U.S. is teetering on returning to all-out war with Iran — a politically dangerous combination for the White House and the GOP. A year ago, the average price was $3.14 a gallon. A month ago, it was $3.95. A week ago, it was $3.87. Gas first topped $4 a gallon at the end of March. The price reached $4.56 ahead of Memorial Day weekend. Mapped: Average price by state.

Squeezing China on AI Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios The Trump administration is showing signs it could ban cutting-edge Chinese AI models — a momentous move that could lock in dominance by OpenAI and Anthropic, Axios' Maria Curi writes. Why it matters: Parts of the administration have tried to implement de facto bans on foreign open-source models before, knowledgeable sources tell Axios. Last week's rise of Chinese model Kimi is reigniting those efforts. The big picture: U.S. companies are increasingly using open-source models from China because they're cheaper and, as seen by the rise of Kimi, just about as good as the domestic tech. Kimi and other Chinese models such as DeepSeek and GLM allow users to download and customize them. They have fewer guardrails, lower cost and more flexibility than the closed American models. Between the lines: The administration wouldn't need to impose an outright ban to get U.S. companies to drop those Chinese platforms. "What's actually happening is slower and more durable," a source familiar with government discussions said, citing procurement rules, Entity List threats and public pressure campaigns aimed at U.S. companies using Chinese models. Instead of a ban, another source familiar with government discussions described a push to highlight potential backdoors and lack of security with Chinese models, and the governance issue that brings. It's an offensive approach where the administration encourages a more innovative U.S. open-source ecosystem, the source added. Screenshot: @DavidSacks/X The other side: Some administration officials keen on keeping regulation from stifling innovation, including former White House adviser Sriram Krishnan, have left the premises. National security hawks have grown louder. With that shift in personnel — along with the rise of more powerful Chinese tech and fresh cybersecurity fears — momentum for a ban is picking up. Outside White House adviser David Sacks escalated the fight publicly yesterday, writing on X: "We are at a critical inflection point in AI policy. The leading closed labs, already a duopoly in terms of AI model revenue, want the government to eliminate their open source competition. They have laid their cards on the table. It is time for the rest of Silicon Valley — the vast majority that still values open competition — to do the same."

THIS DAY IN HISTORY July 20 1969 Neil Armstrong walks on moon American astronaut Neil Armstrong speaks these words to more than a billion people listening at home: “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” Stepping off the lunar landing module Eagle, Armstrong became the first human to walk on the surface of the moon. read more Sponsored Content by REVCONTENT 19th Century 1889 Homesteaders murdered by Wyoming ranchers Arts & Entertainment 1973 Actor and martial-arts expert Bruce Lee dies at age 32 1963 Jan and Dean’s “Surf City” hits #1 1988 “Die Hard” debuts, makes Bruce Willis a movie star Cold War 1948 President Truman issues peacetime draft Crime 1984 A serial-killing couple is apprehended 2012 Aurora shooting leaves 12 dead, 70 wounded Native American History 1881 Sitting Bull surrenders Natural Disasters & Environment 1977 A flood hits Johnstown—again Space Exploration 1976 Viking 1 lands on Mars U.S. Presidents 1969 President Nixon watches first lunar landing World War II 1944 Assassination plot against Hitler fails

US gas prices back up to an average of $4 a gallon again as the US and Iran launch attacks NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. gas prices jumped back to $4 a gallon on average Monday, as Washington’s latest fighting with Iran renews strain on the flow of fuel worldwide. https://apnews.com/article/gas-prices-iran-war-4-gallon-4b82825734ec3ded192351e53a4be69e?

The tongue is the only muscle in one’s body that is attached at only one end. James

ICE Officers at Maine Shooting Scene Were Wearing Body Cameras. They Were Not Turned On. Federal officers at the scene of a killing by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Maine were wearing body cameras, according to four ICE officials who reviewed images from the scene — but the cameras are on multi-function devices that ICE officers use as radio mics. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/16/ice-maine-shooting-body-cameras/? Trump’s Formula for Forever Wars President Donald Trump blew up the temporary ceasefire after the U.S. launched a series of airstrikes against Iran over the weekend. The two nations have continued to exchange strikes throughout the week, with Iran targeting U.S. allies in the Middle East, as Congress debates further entangling the United States military with Israel — a proposal that would give Israel enormous leverage over U.S. defense policy. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/17/spencer-ackerman-lindsey-graham-iran-war/? Would-Be Platner Replacements in Maine Rally Around “Abolish ICE” (or Something Close) In the wake of a deadly shooting of a young father in southern Maine on Monday, the abbreviated race to replace Graham Platner on the Democratic Party ticket for the 2026 Senate race quickly became centered on immigration — and most of the serious contenders are on the same page. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/16/maine-platner-replacement-abolish-ice-shootings/? In the Wake of Fatal ICE Shootings, Democrats Drag Their Feet Democrats in Congress have remained largely silent and inactive in the wake of ICE agents’ fatal shootings of two immigrant men in Maine and Texas, displaying lackluster energy compared to the party’s response to the killings of two white U.S. citizens earlier this year. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/17/democrats-congress-abolish-ice-killings/? It’s Scary As Hell Being Black in America Right Now There is a tangible heat to being Black in America this summer. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/19/nolan-wells-kohen-wiley/? ps:Not just this year, but for at least 250+ years!!!!! Two-Thirds of Shri Thanedar’s Campaign Cash Came Through AIPAC as He Lost Over $600K Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Mich., lost more than $630,000 in investment income last quarter after he put $3.7 million in campaign funds into the cryptocurrency industry, according to a new filing with the Federal Election Commission released on Wednesday. Amid those losses, bundlers from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee have stepped in to prop up his campaign. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/17/shri-thanedar-crypto-donavan-mckinney-michigan-aipac/? The United States of Betrayal Donald Trump — America’s self-proclaimed “peace president,” head of the world’s newly created Board of Peace, and the recipient of the first FIFA Peace Prize — has nonetheless been embroiled in more than 20 wars, interventions, and conflicts. And more loom on the horizon. Cuba remains on the chopping block. He began threatening Greenland, again. And Guatemala agreed to joint military operations with the U.S. against cartels. https://theintercept.com/2026/07/18/united-states-betray-allies-trump-foreign-policy/?

Spain wins the World Cup by beating Argentina 1-0 on Ferran Torres’ goal in extra time EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) — This is how good Spain was at the World Cup: Not even Lionel Messi had any answers. https://apnews.com/article/argentina-spain-world-cup-final-score-messi-fccc26aa12d9226e63d06b601b770617? ps:Congrats to Spain!! Mbappé wins another Golden Boot, and Spain’s Rodri gets Golden Ball with World Cup title EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) — Kylian Mbappé kept the Golden Boot award and Spain wouldn’t let Lionel Messi get anything else. https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-golden-boot-awards-messi-mbappe-2036d505bc97ce3a116f20dd67db43e5? La Furia Roja Spain topped Argentina 1-0 in the World Cup final yesterday, winning the global tournament for the second time and the first since 2010. The win denied Argentina back-to-back titles, a feat that hasn’t happened since Brazil in 1958-62. The Spaniards frustrated star Lionel Messi for most of the match, winning time of possession 65%-35% and forcing five yellow and one red card. Argentina had just two shots—neither of which was on goal—while Spain took 20 shots and put 12 on goal. Despite the dominance, Argentina forced Spain into extra time, with the winning shot coming at minute 106. Watch the goal and match highlights here. Separately, England topped France in Saturday's high-scoring third-place match, 6-4. French star Kylian Mbappé became the all-time World Cup top scorer (22 goals across three tournaments) at just 27 years old. Spain, Portugal, and Morocco will serve as the main hosts for the 2030 World Cup.

Justice Department activates untested court for 'alien terrorist' deportations The Trump administration has filed a first-ever petition to a secretive and dormant court created 30 years ago to consider government requests to deport so-called “alien terrorists” from the United States. Read More.

😎 AOC's Obama vibes DETROIT — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's message on the campaign trail increasingly echoes Barack Obama's early rhetoric during his 2008 campaign for president. 🧐 Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez is broadening her pitch beyond revolutionary democratic socialism to something closer to Obama's "Change You Can Believe In" ahead of a potential 2028 run for the White House. Former senior Obama adviser David Axelrod also hears the parallels, telling Axios: "Folks forget how much the Obama campaign in 2008 was an insurgency against the broken politics of those times. So AOC's words, while her own, are familiar in spirit." 🚙 Driving the news: Campaigning in Michigan this weekend for progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, Ocasio-Cortez argued for liberal policies while making a more universal case against politics-as-usual. "Is the answer to our problems to turn to the same playbook over and over again?" she asked a crowd of Democrats here. "A playbook that says in order to win we must be defenders of the same status quo that is drowning us and tells us the aspiration to change our government and the ambition to even try is foolish? No, it is not foolish, Michigan." 🌽 That recalled Obama in 2007, telling Democrats in Iowa that "the same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do in this election.… That's why I am asking you to stop settling for what the cynics say we have to accept. In this election — in this moment — let us reach for what we know is possible." AOC also channeled Obama's "hope and change" rhetoric while campaigning in Montana in May, telling voters to "ask your skeptical neighbor to believe. It's the only thing that we have. Our hope is the only thing that creates change, and that's why so many people try to talk us out of it." El-Sayed told me ahead of his rally with Ocasio-Cortez in Lansing, Mich., that when he first heard Obama speak, "I didn't know politics would sound like that, and I think for a lot of people who are listening to what she has to say, I think they're feeling the same way." 🩺 Zoom in: Ocasio-Cortez embraces some of Obama's themes, but believes in more left-wing policies like Medicare for All, a moratorium on building the data centers powering AI, more skepticism of trade deals, and more. She's not the only potential 2028 contender trying to position themself as a change candidate, but the 36-year-old New Yorker has less establishment baggage than others. 🥊 The big picture: Michigan's Senate race has become the key battleground for the left wing in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race. Left-wing Democrats have scored several primary victories this cycle, but mostly in places that are already strongly Democratic. If El-Sayed can win the primary in which he is being outspent 12 to 1 and then the general election in the swing state of Michigan, progressives will see it as validating their theory that they're actually more electable than centrist Democrats by pledging to shake up the status quo. It also would give AOC, or another progressive, an electability argument in a 2028 presidential primary. Between the lines: Ocasio-Cortez's allies and her skeptics alike believe she has the ability to broaden Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' progressive coalition. They argue she's less rigid and more pragmatic, which has led to a less hostile relationship with the Democratic Party's establishment (moves that also have attracted left-wing critics). AOC has been more selective than Sanders in making endorsements this year. She didn't back Graham Platner's Senate bid in Maine, and so avoided the fallout from his withdrawal from the race amid a sexual assault accusation. 🤺 Sanders also had a more contentious relationship with Obama: He was critical of Obama's administration particularly on issues such as trade. Sanders' 2016 White House campaign against Hillary Clinton was in many ways a critique of the administration. A person familiar with Ocasio-Cortez's relationship with Obama said the former president has been impressed with her abilities as a communicator and that they've had a few positive engagements behind the scenes. Some progressives already believe Ocasio-Cortez could win the presidency. Shawn Fain — president of the United Auto Workers, which has endorsed El-Sayed — told Axios he believes AOC could "definitely" win a state like Michigan and also win the White House. "I believe she could," he said. 👷‍♀️ "It's going to come down to who working-class people believe is going to represent their interest, and who they perceive is going to fight for them." Read more. — Alex Thompson

Trump shifts his tone on Jimmy Carter while grappling with Iran, inflation and his own legacy Jimmy Carter used to be one of President Donald Trump’s favorite political targets, a catchall foil for feckless Democrats that he could jeer at to make himself look strong and decisive. But lately, Trump’s sentiments on the 39th president have become more wistful as he faces some of the same challenges the late Carter did. Those include the war in Iran with no end in sight — and now escalating as the U.S. moves to control the Strait of Hormuz — and inflation, a drag on the economy Trump hasn’t tamed despite long insisting that his business background would wipe it out. The comparison seems to be on Trump’s mind, too. Read more. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Federal judge bars Trump administration from using obscure clause to make huge funding cuts Federal appeals court rules that New Jersey’s assault weapons ban is unconstitutional Trump says these documents prove his false claims of election fraud. Here’s what they really say Justice Department activates untested court for “alien terrorist” deportations A Texas prosecutor reveals new details in an ICE killing of a Houston father US cancels automatic protections for imperiled animals as critics warn of extinctions FAA says Boeing can resume self-certifying its jets as airworthy Paying for early access to Trump’s Truth Social could raise money and ethical issues AIPAC has spent a record amount on Michigan’s Senate primary, the biggest test of its influence yet Women are dying in Africa as US ramps up its global battle against abortion Jamaica says 2 citizens deported by US to Eswatini rejected repatriation offers US lets Hong Kong emergency declaration lapse, lifting some sanctions as Trump order stays Trump’s envoy faces protests in Venice on latest stop of super yacht diplomacy tour

US strikes Iran over troop deaths as Israel warns Tehran’s attacks are coming close The United States launched more airstrikes at Iran on Sunday in response to the killing of U.S. troops, and Iran fired missiles toward Jordan that risked widening the conflict into neighboring Israel. Step by step, the U.S, and Iran have returned closer to all-out war as last month’s interim deal meant to permanently end the fighting has crumbled and shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. Read more. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ 16 US service members have died in the Iran war, reflecting a conflict fought largely in the air US oil firms sign deals with Iraq to develop alternative shipping routes WATCH: How the Strait of Hormuz is monitored as US-Iran conflict escalates Iranian strike damages a Kuwait desalination plant, exposing water vulnerability in dry Mideast Nigerian children pay the price for the Iran war as malnutrition and poverty surge

5.5 magnitude earthquake hits Peru’s Andes region and kills at least 6 people LIMA, Peru (AP) — A 5.5 magnitude earthquake shook the Andes region of Peru, killing at least six people, injuring more than 30 and displacing 300, authorities said Sunday. https://apnews.com/article/peru-lima-andes-earthquake-sicaya-missing-b913ea98c255d3854804e35401425325?

🏃 1 for the road: New fastest human Josh Kerr celebrates after setting the mile world record during a meet at London Stadium yesterday. Photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images The men's mile world record was broken after 27 years. British runner Josh Kerr ran a 3:42.66 mile yesterday at a meet in London — beating Moroccan Hicham El Guerrouj's 3:43.13 record from 1999. 👟 The gear: "Kerr was kitted out in a bespoke speed suit and spikes created by sponsor Brooks, with the former designed to both enhance his aerodynamics and improve breathability in the warm temperatures through laser-cut perforations," BBC reports. "The spikes, designed to maximize his biomechanics, featured a carbon plate and aggressive rocker for propulsion, and titanium pins to keep the shoe light."

⚽ "Live" not quite as live as we thought New York New Jersey Stadium (aka MetLife Stadium) is ready for today's World Cup Final in East Rutherford, N.J. Photo: Tullio Puglia/FIFA via Getty Images During today's World Cup Final, how quickly you see pivotal moments will depend on how you watch. In one Axios group chat, "omg" or "whoa" might pop up 20 seconds sooner depending on whether the person was watching on YouTube TV, FS1 or Peacock en Español. Live TV used to mean the signal went almost straight from the camera to viewers. Not anymore, a fascinating New York Times piece explains: "Before you see the video, it's captured, processed, compressed, encrypted, packaged, sent out, stored, decoded, and finally shown on your screen," says Kenny Elcock, NESN's former VP of technology. "Each step adds a bit of delay, and together, these delays can add up." 📺 Old-fashioned rabbit-ear TV is fastest, with viewers seeing action within 3–8 seconds, Elcock tells The Times. Cable TV sends a signal through fiber networks, with a delay of 5-12 seconds. Satellite TV goes to space and back, with more encoding and processing, meaning a delay of 15-30 seconds. Streaming splits the video into thousands of small files ("segments"). Delays can reach 60 seconds or more. 📱 On top of that, buffering means your device downloads a small amount of video and holds while you watch slightly older video, guarding against internet glitches that could freeze your frame. Keep reading (gift link) ... Match preview.

🤖 Investors blink on AI Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Emily Peck/Axios The boom that powered semiconductor stocks to record highs just last month is now sputtering, Axios' Emily Peck reports. The stocks got to extremes, John Roque, head of technical analysis at 22V Research, a Wall Street research firm, tells Axios: "It's as rash now on the downside as it was rash on the upside." 📈 Reality check: For the year to date, these stocks are still absolutely slaying: SOXX is up 66%, Micron 169%(!) and Intel 141%. And so far, the stock market overall is holding up. Keep reading.

⛽ Charted: GOP's gas grief Data: AAA. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The collapse of President Trump's Iran deal is derailing Republicans' best chance to change the inflation story before midterms, Axios' Mike Zapler reports. This morning's national average price per gallon, up from $3.15 a year ago, is knocking on the door of $4 again: $3.998. Read on.

U.S. hits back after Iranian strikes kill troops A bridge collapsed by a U.S. strike is seen yesterday in southern Iran near Bandar Abbas. Photo: Amir Hossein Khorgooei/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images Two U.S. service members were killed and more wounded in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on an airbase in Jordan yesterday, military officials said. This is the first time U.S. troops have been killed since fighting resumed two weeks ago. The incident brings the number of U.S. service members killed in the war to 16, Axios' Barak Ravid and Colin Demarest report. At least two Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, which hosts U.S. troops and fighter jets. Videos circulating on social media showed the missiles' impact and heavy smoke right after. U.S. Central Command confirmed that two service members were killed and another was missing. Four more were evacuated to hospitals. Around 6 p.m. ET last evening, the U.S. military launched another round of strikes on Iranian targets. CENTCOM said: "The strikes are designed to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and swiftly punish Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces who launched attacks against American service members in Jordan." Behind the scenes: Two U.S. officials said four different Iranian missile attacks have hit U.S. forces at bases in Jordan over the past week. Dozens of U.S. service members were wounded in the attacks and several helicopters were destroyed, one U.S. official said. The official expressed concern that the four incidents signal Iran has managed to exploit vulnerabilities in the U.S. defenses in Jordan.

The hate election Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Stock: Getty Images Republicans admit their midterm forecast is bleak. But they're clinging to two hopes: voters' fear and loathing of Democrats, Axios' Marc Caputo reports. "It's going to be a hate election," a Republican tied to President Trump's political operation told Axios. "Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with." So watch for the GOP to play up swing voters' fears that Democrats would go too far left if they won control of the House and/or Senate — arguing that "yeah, we suck, but they're worse," as one GOP pollster put it. Why it matters: There's broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections harder by not focusing on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation. Trump's prime-time speech Thursday night about China's alleged influence campaign targeting U.S. voters six years ago did little to assuage those concerns. "I have yet to understand how we win the midterms by talking about what happened in 2020," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Axios. 🔎 Zoom in: Trump hopes his speech will pressure Congress to pass his controversial SAVE America Act and energize his base. But GOP pollsters and election pros outside the White House say the message is falling on deaf ears. "We've studied this, and it's not a winner," said a second Republican pollster working on multiple races nationwide. "Our research shows people want the president to make their life better, and they don't believe he has." The pollster's data now indicate Democrats could wind up with a seven-seat majority in the House, where Republicans have a six-seat edge. Trump's net approval rating is 10 points underwater. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll out Thursday showed Trump's net approval rating was even worse among registered voters: -19%. 👀 Friction point: Democrats also have poor favorability ratings. And Republicans plan to use the Democrats' Tea Party-like revolt by progressives to paint the entire party as radicals who can't be trusted to govern. 📉 Reality check: Both political parties have similar (low) approval ratings, according to a Pew Research Center poll. A majority of voters consistently view Trump as dishonest (even in red states, including Texas). And Republicans counting on voters hating liberal Democrats more than them might consider this: A CNBC poll out Friday found that voters now are more likely to be turned off by a MAGA candidate than a democratic socialist.

July 19, 2026 Good morning. Two U.S. service members were killed in an Iranian attack in Jordan, bringing the total number of American military personnel killed in the war with Iran to 16. We’ve got more details on that below, along with all of the other news you need, and a revealing interview with Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York. But we start today with soccer, of course. The World Cup final between Argentina and Spain kicks off at 3 p.m. Eastern time, after a remarkable third-place match yesterday (England beat France, 6-4). Madness! Sara Messinger for The New York Times The beautiful game By Jodi Rudoren I played soccer through age 29, when I tore my A.C.L. on a bad tackle Sam Anderson, a longtime writer for The New York Times Magazine, has spent the last month immersed in the World Cup. No, not like the rest of us. Sam’s made it his job. He’s been to six matches and, as he put it, has “watched many more in strange places: a movie theater, a dance club, crowded hotel lobbies, on a TV in the back of someone’s pickup truck.” He’s crisscrossed the nation’s strip malls and back alleys to go deep into fan culture, filing three wildly entertaining and insightful dispatches totaling 6,797 words — many of them five-letters, starting with a capital M and ending in i. I asked him what he learned. So what qualified you for this incredible gig? Are you secretly a former soccer star or coach? I played for one year when I was 5. I only remember touching the ball once: a sea of opposing players parted, and I went to kick it but somehow ended up launching myself backward into a mud puddle — and my white shorts got so muddy that all the other kids called me “Poopy Pants.” I never played again. But then, 30 years later, my son got into soccer and was pretty good at it. I coached his team very badly for a while. A florist we interviewed for our wedding asked me, “Why Gary?” (My husband) So I ask you: Why soccer? I grew up playing and loving basketball. The two sports are like looking through opposite ends of a telescope — in terms of pace, scoring, rules, culture, philosophy, everything. But soccer is so beautiful. Every second involves infinite overlapping layers of skill and strategy and angles and effort. And of course the World Cup is totally magical — every four years, I get sucked right back in. Watching on TV, I’m totally surprised by how many people in the stands seem like authentic fans of each country. How is this possible? Yep. On the ground, it feels like the crowds are 95 percent rabid fans who have traveled, at outrageous expense, from all over the world. Argentina fans have a reputation for being particularly devoted. I met lots of them who were staying in the U.S. for the entire World Cup. I think that sense of being unmoored — for a month, life is 100 percent soccer — contributes to the wild carnival atmosphere at games. You described it as “a giant spectacle of nationalism.” I think you meant this in a good way? Well, yes and no. It gives people a chance to bond through these extremely over-the-top displays of national pride: the jerseys and costumes and face paint and chanting. Ninety-nine percent of it is funny and joyful and self-aware. But nationalism can turn ugly very quickly. As the stakes got higher and higher, the vibes got a little more confrontational. Norway fans. Sara Messinger for The New York Times What has this crazy adventure taught you about America? On one hand it has confirmed some of my longstanding frustrations: our addiction to car culture, which means a lack of walkability and public transportation and other things most Europeans get to take for granted. On the other hand, I’ve been pleasantly surprised by what a fun, funny, welcoming, joyful, arms-wide-open hosting job we’ve done. It felt like, given the current climate, there were some real nightmare scenarios on the table — tear gas outside of stadiums, et cetera. But what I’ve experienced, personally, has been a lot of wonderful humans being good to each other. What has it taught you about soccer? I have learned that soccer is ridiculous, cruel, maddening, nonsensical, unjust, heartbreaking, horrendous, a total waste of time, a fraud perpetrated on humanity, the absolute worst sport ever invented — and also the only thing that matters in life. You wrote that you rooted for Norway because you discovered through 23andMe that 25.8 percent of your DNA is Norwegian. But that means you’re 74.2 percent other stuff, so — why Norway? Because Germany (the origin of most of the rest of my DNA) got knocked out early, and the World Cup is all about making these kinds of ruthless calculations and then believing them with your whole heart. I watched Norway’s final game standing in a parking lot drinking warm tequila out of a plastic cup. When they lost, I shouted curse words out loud in public. Messi or Haaland? Yes. What do you see as the most memorable moment of the World Cup (so far)? Oh, so many contenders! Some all-time great goals, England’s heroic performance against Mexico in Mexico City, all of Haaland’s Haalanding. But if I have to choose one, I think it’s Argentina’s (i.e., Messi’s) white-knuckle comeback against England in the semifinal: two goals, right at the end, to snatch the game. I’ve never seen something that felt so improbable and inevitable at the same time. Argentina fans after the team’s victory over Jordan, which was played near Dallas. Sara Messinger for The New York Times What’s the most memorable moment behind the scenes? The scene I keep returning to mentally is in downtown Dallas, at Dealey Plaza, where J.F.K. was assassinated in 1963. I figured it would be empty. But it was packed: a whole river of soccer fans, most of them in Messi jerseys, taking turns running out into traffic to stand in the middle of the street on the big white X that marks the historic spot (there is an X!) to have their photo taken. It felt like the ultimate explosion of Americana and tragedy and kitsch and tourism. I stayed for probably two hours just marveling at it all, taking photos of people taking photos. (Let me know if you’d ever like to see my three-hour slide show of Messis taking photos of other Messis — I am happy to share.) Who’s going to win today? Well, let’s see: I believe that Spain is the better team, by far, and that they’ll put on a clinic of defense and ball-control, frustrating Argentina at every turn, allowing Messi zero space to get anything going — and I also believe that none of that matters, and Argentina will somehow inexplicably come out on top, and after the match Messi will rise into the heavens on a shaft of golden light, and then the sun will turn permanently blue and white like an Argentina jersey. So my prediction is Argentina 2-1. Read Sam’s latest dispatch to get yourself hyped for the game. And — why not? — the other two (they’re so, so good): The sorrow, rage and crazy joy of the knockout rounds The perishable, never-ending genius of Lionel Messi WAR IN IRAN In Tehran. Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times The United States and Iran edged closer to wider war this weekend after the killing of the American service members on Friday. The deaths capped a week of spiraling attacks as the deal that President Trump reached with Iran last month continued to unravel. The U.S. military said that it had attacked Iranian military facilities as well as the forces responsible for the strikes on Friday in Jordan. Iran launched strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, all countries where the United States maintains a significant military presence. The recent Iranian strikes suggest that Tehran has plenty of missiles on hand — and that it has become more adept at evading American air defense systems, U.S. officials told The Times. Iranians said U.S. strikes targeting parts of southern Iran last week had rattled their nerves and destroyed key links between one province and the rest of the country. THE LATEST NEWS Politics Political candidates have a new worry — how to influence what chatbots say about them. The Trump administration has suggested “sanctuary” states refuse to work with ICE. But a Times review of 18 states found they do cooperate significantly in cases involving violent crimes. Around the World In Kyiv this morning. Paula Bronstein/Getty Images Russia pummeled Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, overnight with one of the largest ballistic missile attacks of the war, officials said. A top politician in Germany resigned after announcing that he had a baby by surrogate, which is illegal in the country. Wildfires Dozens of wildfires are burning across the Pacific Northwest after more than 14,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Half of Canada’s wildfires are in remote areas with no road access. Impossible to fight, they are often left to burn. Wildfire smoke is affecting the air quality near the New Jersey stadium hosting the World Cup final. Other Big Stories Andrew and Tristan Tate, the manosphere influencers, were arrested in Miami after new sex crime charges were filed in Britain. British prosecutors said they were seeking the brothers’ extradition. Taylor Farms, the company linked to the cyclospora outbreak, expanded its recall of iceberg lettuce to 27 states. FROM OPINION Harmon Li for The New York Times ICE killed Rachel Reyes’s son. The lack of transparency about shootings involving federal agents harms the public, she writes. Christopher Nolan’s casting of Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy in “The Odyssey” inspires questions on beauty that befit the ancient Greeks, Daniel Mendelsohn writes. Deeply reported journalism needs your support. The Times relies on subscribers to help fund our mission. Become a subscriber today. MORNING READS We’ve made all of these links free for you. Billy Hickey for The New York Times Old Ladies Against Underwater Garbage: The group estimates that it has removed 6,000 pounds of trash from ponds on Cape Cod. Is Venezuela Trump’s colony now? Or is it a sovereign state? Perhaps ambiguity is the point. Can’t touch this: In buzzy travel spots, local gatekeepers are hiding their favorite beaches and bars from tourists. Early adopter: Roger Summit came up with the idea for a computer system that would search scientific and technical literature almost instantaneously. The product he created preceded Google by more than two decades. He died at 95. WORLD CUP Here’s what to know about today’s final, along with a mega-preview that focuses on the tactical matchup. Kylian Mbappé of France scored twice in yesterday’s third-place game against England, making him the World Cup’s leading goal scorer. He also moved ahead of Argentina’s Lionel Messi in the race for this year’s Golden Boot. An old photo of Messi and Lamine Yamal has been making the rounds online as the two prepare to face off on the pitch. In the video below, Joan Monfort tells the story behind his picture. Click to watch. The New York Times By Elisabeth Egan THE INTERVIEW Devin Oktar Yalkin for The New York Times “I think the point of political capital is to spend it to deliver material change.” — Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, speaking with Lulu Garcia-Navarro about his recent endorsements in local races. Read their full interview here, or watch a longer version on YouTube. THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE Read this week’s magazine. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Give someone a great pair of shoes. (Yes, really. They make an excellent gift.) Find a new go-to lipstick without rummaging through your mom’s vanity. We evaluated over 200 of them so you don’t have to. Organize your life with a label maker. This one from Brother is the one you’ll want to use again and again. Tune a delightfully nostalgic tabletop radio. We tried retro ones, colorful ones, portable ones and high-tech ones. Here are the best. MEAL PLAN Christopher Simpson for The New York Times Pork chops can be intimidating, especially on the stovetop. Your pan has to be screaming hot for a nice sear — but not so hot that you scorch the edges. (Instead, try a foolproof pork shoulder roast that you can slide into the oven and ignore for a while.) But if you’re willing to chance a mess, Ali Slagle’s skillet pork chops with buttered corn are more than worth it. Margaux Laskey, an editor at NYT Cooking, also recommends Provençal greens soup, fettuccine Alfredo and more for dinner. NOW TIME TO PLAY Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were elliptical and tailpiece. Can you put eight historical events — including the creation of the Korean alphabet, the theory of continental drift and Catherine the Great’s roller coaster — in chronological order? Take this week’s Flashback quiz. And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Crossplay, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. 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