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America's not ready for space war Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images Axios' Thomas Novelly writes in the inaugural SPACE edition of our Future of Defense newsletter, out this morning: The future of war is in outer space — and the U.S. is unprepared for the fallout. Why it matters: An outbreak of space warfare would cripple the global economy by disrupting satellites used for everything from worldwide financial transactions to maritime navigation. It would also hinder the U.S. military's ability to conduct some of its key missions on Earth. The dependence on satellites is precisely what makes them tempting targets for foes. China has made major advancements, including satellites with robotic arms that could disable U.S. equipment and lasers that can blind military space sensors. Russia lags behind, but U.S. officials fear Moscow may unleash an orbital nuclear weapon that "could pose a threat to all satellites and to the space-enabled services the world depends on." 💥 Threat level: Last month, U.S. officials revealed that the military had weapons in space — a bombshell admission they said was aimed at deterring adversaries. Aerospace analysts warn the nation isn't prepared if China or Russia destroys U.S. satellites. They say the defense industry lacks the critical supplies and personnel to fight back.

⚡ Scoop: "OG" Bill Gates returns for AI fight Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Getty Images Bill Gates is gearing up to dramatically expand his AI safety push, personally leaning on business leaders and considering a major deployment of his resources, sources tell Axios' Bradley Olson. Why it matters: The formidable, sharp-elbowed Bill Gates who built Microsoft is back. He's directing his competitive fire toward what he has come to see as one of the most important causes of his lifetime. "I can reach CEOs on this better than you can," Gates told one person he consulted on AI safety, showing an eagerness for combat that associates say is a return to "OG" form. 🔬 Zoom in: Once a voice for optimism on AI, Gates has grown dismayed by an escalation of model capabilities, alarming security incidents and what he sees as insufficient regulation, sources say. As he prepared to make the case for a far more robust regulatory framework on AI, he consulted extensively with leading AI executives, researchers, and safety advocates, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Behind the scenes: People Gates has spoken to called his advocacy a "comeback tour," an attempt to rebuild a legacy that has been tarnished by his past association with Jeffrey Epstein. Gates has said he's aware that some people may dismiss his warnings due to the Epstein ties. But he sees the stakes as too high to stay on the sidelines and believes his Rolodex, foundational tech credibility and wealth can do an immense amount of good. 🔮 What's next: Gates' calls for robust regulation will put him on a collision course with the Trump administration, which has favored a lighter regulatory touch. Keep reading.

📉 Charted: CEO mood sours Data: The Conference Board and The Business Council. Chart: Axios/Emily Peck CEO confidence in the U.S. economy sank into negative territory earlier this month, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a Conference Board survey out this morning. The CEO Confidence Index — a survey of 131 Fortune 500 CEOs — fell to 46, down from 52 just three months ago. Any number below 50 signals negative sentiment. ⚠️ Threat level: 41% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen — up from 19% in the previous quarter. Executives' concerns over cybersecurity, AI and geopolitics rose significantly from three months ago. Keep reading.

🤖 Anthropic gives Wall Street an AI bull case Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images AI companies for years have promised that smarter models would be worth the staggering cost to build them. Anthropic made that case last night in cash, Axios' Madison Mills writes. The company presented eye-popping financials to investors, saying it was cash-flow positive in the third quarter, with revenue surging nearly 50% to $16.8 billion compared to the April-to-June period. Why it matters: As Wall Street broadly spent the day fearing an AI bubble, Anthropic offered what investors have been desperate to see: evidence that frontier AI can be a sustainable business. 🔬 Zoom in: Consider just one of the stats reported by Anthropic: the company is cash-flow positive even as some of the world's most profitable companies are struggling to keep their AI spending in check. For context, Google's parent, Alphabet, long a money-printing machine, turned free cash flow negative in its second quarter as AI infrastructure investment soared. The big picture: Anthropic's early bets on coding expertise, business customers and spending discipline have paid off. Claude Code, a viral hit that brought users to Anthropic in droves, reached an estimated annualized revenue of $6 billion to $7 billion by late summer, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Customers have generally been reluctant to switch once they've adopted it, according to PitchBook data. 🥊 Reality check: Anthropic still faces enormous training costs and stock-based compensation expenses, which could weigh on its underlying profitability. And Anthropic faces more than $500 billion in planned infrastructure and computing spending over the next decade.

Musk's rescue mission Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Marc Piasecki/Getty Images Elon Musk, by far the biggest known midterm donor, is single-handedly keeping the Republican Party afloat in some of its most vital races. Musk's team reached out to Republicans in late August to discuss a train wreck they all saw coming: Unless the GOP poured more money into Texas immediately, the state's Senate race could be lost in a matter of weeks, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports. Why it matters: That chat set in motion a massive rescue operation for Republican Ken Paxton funded substantially by Musk, the party's largest donor, who gave $158 million in September alone. Musk's rescue gave Paxton's sleepy campaign new life and showed why the world's richest person is the X factor in the push to prevent a midterm debacle for President Trump's party. It also helped Republicans avoid a death-spiral scenario: that propping up Paxton in Texas would force them to drain badly needed resources from other Senate battlegrounds. Instead, Musk's money allowed Republicans to flood Texas' expensive TV markets and free up cash to shore up unexpectedly competitive races in Kansas and South Carolina. 🧮 By the numbers: Musk, the world's richest person, accounted for nearly 60% of the $273 million raised in Q3 by the Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC backing Senate Republicans. Photo: CNN 📺 At the end of a 90-minute CNN/Jubilee town hall in Fort Worth last night, James Talarico, Texas Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, pointed out how civil and issue-oriented the conversation had been: "You may have noticed that I haven't talked about my opponent at all tonight ... I don't want people to vote just against Ken Paxton. I want them to vote for me. I want them to know my values and my vision." Talarico, 37, then hammered Paxton, 63, as "the most corrupt politician in Texas." Moderator Erin Burnett said Paxton, the state attorney general, hadn't responded to an invitation for his own town hall.

Chuck's final fight Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is on the cusp of leading his party to midterm victory and reclaiming his title as Senate majority leader. Winning the majority isn't a done deal. But this son of Brooklyn, who has been in public life for 52 years, is more than favored to win a secret ballot to remain Democratic leader, Axios' Hans Nichols writes. Why it matters: At age 75 (76 by the time the new Congress convenes in January), Charles Ellis Schumer, an old-school pol who visits all 62 of New York's counties every year, looks poised to do what very few people do in life — go out on top. 🏛️ Behind the scenes: For starters, Democratic senators aren't quietly maneuvering — or publicly positioning themselves — to take the top job, according to senior aides. You can't beat someone with no one. A handful of Democratic Senate candidates, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, haven't committed to supporting Schumer for leader. But they likely don't have the votes to stage a coup. And Schumer's super PAC is spending heavily to get them across the line. That calculus could change if Republicans overperform expectations with a massive win, potentially triggering a serious leadership challenge. Otherwise, the job is Schumer's for the asking — and he's asking. "I am running for re-election for leader. Period," he said two weeks ago. 🗽 The intrigue: The bigger question surrounding Schumer involves 2028 and whether he'd retire at the top of his game or risk an embarrassing primary loss to, perhaps, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was born in the Bronx and represents parts of the Bronx and Queens. If Schumer decided to retire, he could spend his final two years in leadership, freed from the political pressures that have defined his career. That would give Senate Republicans and President Trump an entirely new political animal to contend with: YOLO Chuck. Republican YOLO senators (with nothing left to lose, since You Only Live Once) have been playing hardball with President Trump. But it's unclear how a YOLO Chuck would act as majority leader. 💡 Between the lines: Schumer finds himself in a position remarkably similar to that of the man he'd replace: Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Both are distrusted by their parties' most vocal activists. The insults hurled at them — weak, coward, sellout — are almost interchangeable. But most of the criticism comes from outside the chamber. Behind closed doors, their caucuses are expected to close ranks. The bottom line: If Schumer announces early in the next Congress that he won't seek another term as leader in 2028, Washington could find itself in an unusual position — with a term-limited president negotiating with a Senate majority leader who has nothing left to lose.

THIS DAY IN HISTORY October 15 1917 Dancer and spy Mata Hari is executed Mata Hari, the dancer and spy, is executed for espionage by a French firing squad outside of Paris. She was accused of acting as a double agent for the French and Germans during World War II. read more Sponsored Content by REVCONTENT 1990s 1990 Mikhail Gorbachev wins Nobel Peace Prize Arts & Entertainment 1951 ‘I Love Lucy’ premieres on CBS 1973 Dolly Parton releases hit single “Jolene” Black History 1966 Black Panther Party founded Civil War 1863 H.L. Hunley sinks during demonstration Crime 1970 RICO Act passed, heralding decline of the mob 1948 A murderous husband is executed Inventions & Science 2004 “Funeral coaches” exempted from car-seat law Native American History 1880 Chiricahua Apache leader Victorio is killed south of El Paso, Texas Sports 1989 Wayne Gretzky breaks NHL points record U.S. Government and Politics 1991 Clarence Thomas confirmed to the Supreme Court U.S. Presidents 1948 Gerald Ford marries Elizabeth Bloomer 1796 Editorial subtly accuses Thomas Jefferson of affair with enslaved woman Vietnam War 1965 Antiwar demonstrations staged in 40 U.S. cities World War II 1946 High-ranking Nazi leader Hermann Göring dies 1945 Vichy leader executed for treason

Ukraine abandons truce and attacks Russian oil refinery as Zelenskyy says he feels betrayed by Trump KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine attacked a Russian oil refinery Thursday, abandoning a brief truce involving energy-related targets that it said Moscow did not heed, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he felt betrayed by U.S. President Donald Trump. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-oil-refinery-attacks-resume-0071b4f3792c9912b977b0ee73505b18?

> Iranian-backed Houthi rebels strike Saudi Aramco headquarters in the kingdom's eastern city of Dhahran, causing a limited fire but no deaths or injuries (More) > Justice Department seizes Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D, MN-5) phone, subpoenas family members amid investigation into her immigration paperwork (More) > Student-led protests in Albania over education costs, allegations of corruption erupt into violence as Education Ministry is reportedly set on fire (More)

> Social Security Administration announces 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment, the largest hike in four years; payments will increase by roughly $75 a month starting in January (More) | How much of your US tax dollar goes into Social Security? (More) > China reports its exports rose 36.3% last month compared with September 2025, including a 40% increase in exports to the US (More) > Bending Spoons shares soar 41.2% on news Berkshire Hathaway will invest another $330M in the Italian tech company (More) | What is Bending Spoons? (More)

> Overlooked brown fat linked to reduced risk of diseases like Type 2 diabetes and improves mental health, per landmark study; blood pressure medication may stimulate the healthy fat (More) | What's the purpose of different body fats? (More) > New dinosaur species identified from a fossil found roughly a century ago on England's Isle of Wight provides first evidence a mysterious group of carnivorous dinosaurs lived in modern-day Europe (More, w/rendering) > Dogs appear to link spoken sounds to shapes, a trait once assumed unique to humans; "bouba" is associated with round objects, while "kiki" is linked to spiky ones (More, scroll for experiment images)

> Winnie the Pooh marks 100th anniversary since teddy bear's first book of stories on Oct. 14, 1926 (More) | Watch the history behind the silly old bear (More via YouTube) | ... and see the feud over the original stuffed Pooh (More) > Houston Astros will not renew manager Joe Espada's contract after three seasons and two American League West titles (More) | Which coaches could replace him? (More) > Netflix lays off around 6% of its workforce, eliminating roughly 1,000 jobs and marking the company's largest cut to date (More) | How does Netflix viewership compare with other streamers? (More, scroll for graphs)

World's Oldest Shipwreck Archaeologists say they have discovered the world's oldest known shipwreck off the southern coast of modern-day Turkey, dating to between 4,400 and 4,700 years ago. The ship's wooden structure is gone, but dozens of ceramic vessels and stone anchors scattered around the site suggest it dates to around the same time as the Great Pyramid of Giza. Researchers believe the ship was nearly 33 feet long and sank while carrying cargo to Troy or Crete. It is one of roughly 420 significant wrecks found along the coast of southern Turkey over the last 15 years, underscoring the region's importance to maritime trade (see map). Several of the vessels appear to have carried wine and olive oil, with some still containing residue despite having been between 65 and 78 feet underwater for over four millennia (see images). The Dokos shipwreck, found in the Aegean Sea and dating to about 4,200 years ago, was previously considered the world’s oldest shipwreck. Learn about it and eight other ancient wrecks here (w/video).

Inflation Rise Continues US prices rose 3.7% last month from September 2025, the latest Consumer Price Index report revealed yesterday. The report is the last of its kind before the November midterm elections, with polls showing the economy is voters’ top issue. Cost bumps were spread across most categories, including housing, clothing, and restaurant food, though groceries saw prices decline since August. The war in Iran has fueled cost increases, as oil prices climbed to over $106 per barrel since August (see the latest prices in your state). The cost of diesel—which powers farms and the shipping industry, among other industries—has increased 70% since the start of the war; see past write-up here. The 3.7% rate was higher than analysts had expected and above the Federal Reserve’s target goal of 2%. The bank has signaled at least one more interest rate hike may come this year, with the next Fed meeting scheduled for Oct. 27-28, days before Election Day. Stocks dropped on yesterday’s news (S&P 500 -1.1%, Dow -0.1%, Nasdaq -1.9%).

The full name of the famous Chuck E. Cheese’s mouse is Charles Entertainment Cheese. James

Parting shot: Florida in full color Photo: Nancy Broen A spectacular Florida sunset graces the sky in Babcock Ranch, America's first solar-powered town, in Southwest Florida. 🚲 Reader Frank Broen tells us his wife, Nancy, snapped this shot while the couple rode their recumbent tandem trike through the community.

🤺 3-way fight Speaker Mike Johnson's sudden frank talk about his political future is upending the quiet maneuvering ahead of a post-election GOP leadership contest. Why it matters: The race could become a three-way fight if Johnson follows former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's lead and tries to stay in leadership if Republicans lose the majority. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) has widely been viewed as a top contender for the job — and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) did not seek a waiver to remain Judiciary chair, fueling speculation that he's preparing to run for leader. Many Republicans privately worry they're going to lose and expected Johnson to step aside if the majority slips away. But his new blunt and unexpected musings on his own future challenge that assumption. Driving the news: "In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government," Johnson told CBS News. But some members aren't buying it: "Why would you want to be minority leader after speaker?" one House Republican told us, adding they would support new leadership. One leader not taking the bait is Scalise: "There are no races that any of us need to be talking about until after the election's over," he told us during an in-flight interview while campaigning out West. Scalise acknowledged Johnson's comments: "I think early on he said he wasn't going to play in hypotheticals, and you know, and he might have gone down that path for a minute. We're focused on holding the House, and that's where my energy is." Between the lines: A bad enough defeat could spark calls for an entirely new leadership team, three House Republicans told us. But Johnson has his defenders: "Johnson has done everything humanly possible to keep us in the majority," one House Republican told us. Zoom in: Some GOP sources believe a three-way contest could split support between Johnson and Scalise, potentially benefiting Jordan. Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) intends to stay in his current role and has no plans to move up the leadership ladder, he told us last month. Emmer staying put means three candidates would compete for one job, minority leader, without a clear fallback for the two losers beyond challenging Emmer. Becoming party leader requires only a majority vote by secret ballot, rather than a public vote on the House floor. The bottom line: The jockeying frustrates some Republicans who argue they should focus only on winning in November. "How sad we have members bidding for MINORITY leadership positions," one House Republican told us in a text. — Kate Santaliz

Questions swirl about new White House press secretary's resume The new White House press secretary is facing mounting questions about her background and resume as she transitions into her role as the public face of the Trump administration. Read More.

Mauritius imposes curfew to calm days of protests after woman shot by police Mauritius imposed an overnight curfew after a police shooting fueled rare civil unrest on the Indian Ocean island, better known as an idyllic holiday destination and one of Africa’s most stable democracies. Read More.

Colombia opens an embassy in Jerusalem after restoring diplomatic ties with Israel Colombia opened an embassy in Jerusalem on Wednesday, marking a major shift in relations with Israel after conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella restored diplomatic ties severed by his predecessor over the war in Gaza. Read More.

The first new sunscreen type in 25 years has arrived on US store shelves For the first time in more than a quarter-century, Americans have a new option when shopping for sunscreen: a skin-protecting chemical that’s long been a go-to option in Europe and other parts of the world. Read More.

GlobalFoundries to open 2 new chip plants in New York with $21 billion in financing from Japan Computer chip company GlobalFoundries Inc. said Wednesday it plans to open two factories in Malta, New York, financed by an investment of up to $21 billion from Japan. Read More.

Kenya confirms second Ebola case, a relative of first patient Kenya’s Health Ministry confirmed the country’s second Ebola case Wednesday, saying a relative of the man who died two days after arriving from Congo had tested positive while in quarantine. Read More.

Guil-Foiled View in browser After half-heartedly including some actual professionals in his first administration, Donald Trump is now served almost exclusively by sycophants and family members. The president has made clear that he cares about loyalty more than qualifications, but the astonishing incompetence and corruption of many of his appointees raises an obvious question: What does it take to get fired by Trump’s White House? Kimberly Guilfoyle’s resignation yesterday as ambassador to Greece provides some clues. Guilfoyle has been accused of blatant corruption both before and during her time as an envoy. She denies these allegations, but her resignation—which the White House requested—isn’t really about corruption. The idea that Guilfoyle, and only Guilfoyle, crossed some sort of previously unseen corruption red line is laughable. If ethical and legal questions, including the now-moribund standard of “appearances of impropriety,” were grounds for dismissal in this administration, Trump would have already shed several other members of his team. Rather, Guilfoyle was pushed out because she was an embarrassment. She overstepped her bounds, tried to trade on the president’s name, and then made the administration look bad when she got caught. Also, she is a woman, and in this administration, self-dealing is mostly a man’s game. Indeed, by comparison with the charges leveled at others—including against the president himself, who seems utterly unconcerned with notions such as “emoluments”—Guilfoyle is decidedly a small-timer. This past spring, for example, the Financial Times reported that a broker for Pete Hegseth attempted to make a big investment in defense industries just before the Iran war, raising suspicions of insider trading. FBI Director Kash Patel has been accused of using government money as a slush fund to pay improper bonuses to his favorites within the Bureau. “Border Czar” Tom Homan was caught on audio in 2024 accepting $50,000 in cash (wrapped in a Cava food bag, always the sign of a deal on the up-and-up) from undercover FBI agents posing as business executives, and yet he remains in his job. Hegseth and Homan deny any wrongdoing; Patel and the FBI have offered no comment or explanation. And the journalist Dexter Filkins recently described Trump’s son-in-law and roving minister-without-portfolio Jared Kushner as representative of “a new kind of Washington figure, for whom public office serves as a means to extraordinary wealth.” Guilfoyle may have been a relative piker among giants in the grift game, but her real sin was the pathetic and humiliating nature of her behavior. (Even Homan managed not to seem quite so grubby when reportedly accepting a bag of greenbacks.) Her messages to a Trump donor asking for money to help pay her huge credit-card bills are cringe-inducing. “Honey please I need you to get this done for me today,” she wrote to the Trump supporter Eric Deters when asking him to wire a cool $100,000 directly into her American Express account in July 2025, just before her confirmation hearings. Worse, she continually told Deters to stop writing things down and just contact her on Signal. “What a nightmare you’ll literally cost me my ambassadorship stop writing,” she said. This was apparently Guilfoyle’s version of the infamous “Stringer Bell rule,” named for a character from the television series The Wire who dressed down one of his drug-dealing accomplices for being stupid enough to keep written notes on a criminal conspiracy. The problem is that she, too, violated that rule: She made her requests to Deters to stop writing things down in writing. Deters, unsurprisingly, kept all the messages. Guilfoyle, he asserts, offered him access to the Trump administration. “I will be your Trump ride or die, forever and ever,” he claims she told him. When she didn’t deliver, he warned Guilfoyle and White House officials earlier this month that he would go public with their correspondence and then made good on that threat. The newly minted ambassador, meanwhile, was flitting about southeastern Europe in the company of Greek tycoons. But again, rather than enjoy the perks of her job in discreet luxury, she bragged about her connections to these wealthy men and tried to present herself as some sort of made woman from the inner Trump orbit who had the juice to get things done. According to The Wall Street Journal, she went to Davos in January 2026 and was excluded from a dinner being held for Eric Trump. She decided to pressure an American businessman to help her get in. “You know, I can deliver the world to you. Which you deserve,” she said. (This time, she was caught on audio, rather than by text message.) “I’m going to make you a lot of fucking money,” she told the American. She also raged about the impudence of the dinner’s Greek hostess. “You don’t have the fucking U.S., you know, ambassador to Greece not come. She should be kissing my fucking ass.” Again, Trump Sr. has no problem with F-bombs; he deploys them regularly. He has no problem with money grabs while in public office; he has enriched himself while president and has explicitly or implicitly blessed similar efforts by other subordinates to profit from their positions. But he apparently draws a line when his son’s former fiancée does not show proper appreciation for the courtesy of being stashed in Athens—Athens!—and then lands in the newspapers looking like an aging waitress cadging tips from marks in a casino. Honey, just put it on the tray. Don’t tell my manager, and I’ll get you to the good poker table. Guilfoyle was once so tight with the Trumps that she was given a prime-time slot to fawn over the president during the 2020 GOP convention. It was a disastrous, over-the-top performance, but Trump loved it, reportedly calling her “my Kimberly” and comparing her to the former Argentine first lady Eva Perón. Earlier this year, Trump said of his emissary to Greece: “Kimberly Guilfoyle has been my friend for a long time. I love calling her Kimber-lay. That’s my little pet name, right? But you are the greatest, and I heard they love you over there.” But over the past several days, the president saw bad publicity about this demanding, middle-aged woman, thrown over by his son for a younger wife—as Trump himself has done to previous spouses—trying to profit off his presidency while making a fool of herself and encouraging more bad press about corruption just before the midterm elections. Guilfoyle had to go, and Trump jettisoned her quickly and coldly. “She wasn’t a member of my family,” the president said yesterday. “She, uh, I guess dated my son a long time ago.” “Dated”? I guess? She was in line for years to become the president’s daughter-in-law, married to his first-born son. Now she’s just some dame one of his kids used to know. Guilfoyle didn’t get it. All she had to do was stay out of trouble. But that was too hard for her, and now she’s learned that making money off this presidency means following some rules. Don’t be too obvious; don’t embarrass the boss; don’t get caught if you can help it. And especially, don’t be an older woman. Related: Trump’s team of mercenaries David Frum on Trump’s last loyal constituency