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Trump's "psychiatrist" and counsel Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images Boris Epshteyn is such a fixture in Donald Trump's White House that he's in Oval Office meetings when some attendees don't even know it, Axios' Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt write. Epshteyn, the president's senior personal counsel, speaks with "the boss" so often that Trump sometimes puts him on speakerphone without telling others in the room, two people familiar with the routine tell Axios. Why it matters: In a White House where proximity to power is power itself, Epshteyn is one of the most influential people in D.C. — not just because he's listening in, but because Trump listens to him as well. "He's like my psychiatrist," Trump has joked about how often he talks to Epshteyn — who typically offers such enthusiastic support that it's like therapy for the president. In Trump's fractious political world, though, such presidential praise draws criticism, including from within. "He's 100% hype man and cheering section for POTUS," one adviser said. "It's sometimes a bit much." 🔎 Zoom in: As Trump's top personal attorney, Epshteyn has overseen a wave of unprecedented civil litigation from a president against the news media and social media companies. Trump has won or forced settlements with ABC ($16 million), CBS ($16 million, plus public service announcements), Meta ($25 million), Google ($22 million) and X ($10 million). Other Trump media targets still in litigation: BBC, CNN, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and even the Pulitzer Committee. Boris Epshteyn walks to the White House from Marine One in 2025. Photo: Francis Chung/Politico via Getty Images ⚖️ The big picture: Epshteyn became a force in Trumpworld by assembling the legal team and charting the risky strategy that paid off during the 2024 election cycle, when Trump faced four criminal cases and two civil ones. Channeling his client, Epshteyn made brinksmanship the default tactic, fighting on every front, appealing everything possible (winning a landmark Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling) and raising the political pressure on judges and prosecutors as cases unfolded in the heat of an election. "Boris delivered in the crucible of battle where either Trump was going to be in prison or be president," said Steve Bannon, influential MAGA podcaster and first-term Trump official. "Boris was the guy who got it done." "He's the president's fixer," said a frequent White House visitor. Between the lines: Epshteyn's role extends beyond the courtroom. In April, he was named chair of Trump Media. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a director. Epshteyn has significant influence in the Justice Department, Trump advisers say, because of his close relationship with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. Epshteyn is in the Oval Office about once a week, a White House official said, and is "constantly" on the phone with Trump in between. ps:So pathetic!!!!!

Iran and US reach an initial deal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz but challenges remain DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement Monday that would extend their shaky ceasefire and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but significant challenges remain to ending the war, including whether Israel will continue its offensive in Lebanon. https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-oil-june-15-2026-77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20? Iran Deal Reached The US and Iran have agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, President Donald Trump and mediators revealed yesterday. The countries are scheduled to sign a deal Friday in Switzerland. Oil prices fell on the news. Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels "toll-free," Trump says, and the US will end its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The ceasefire is also predicated on an end to the conflict in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Details surrounding Iran’s nuclear program—including the fate of its stockpile of enriched uranium—are slated to be discussed after the deal is signed. The full text was not publicly available as of this writing. The agreement was announced hours before Trump traveled to France for this year's G7 summit. In addition to the US war with Iran, the countries will discuss multilateral trade, among other issues. Learn more about the G7 here. ⚡ 60-day Iran deal Via Truth Social The U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework extending their ceasefire for 60 days, with a signing ceremony expected Friday in Switzerland and nuclear talks to follow, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Why it matters: The agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease pressure on global energy markets, and create a window for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. The memorandum of understanding would mark the war's biggest diplomatic breakthrough. Special envoy Steve Witkoff embraces Vice President JD Vance at UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn last night. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images 🖼️ The big picture: The agreement is designed to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas before the war. Fully reopening the strait may not happen immediately. Mine-clearing, infrastructure repairs and guaranteeing security could take time before a full return to prewar shipping volumes. 📝 Breaking it down: The agreement calls for the U.S. and Iran to negotiate over Iran's nuclear enrichment and the disposal of its highly enriched uranium during the 60-day window. The U.S. will discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds, with relief expected to be tied to Tehran's compliance.

Northern Korean people are legally only allowed to have one of 28 haircuts. Men and women can choose from 14 different styles. James

Civil Records for Hundreds of Thousands of Lebanese Could Be Wiped Out By Israel’s Total War Israel’s campaign to raze huge swaths of southern Lebanon may destroy not only people’s homes, but also their ability to even show they owned the properties, according to locals and officials from the Lebanese government — potentially leaving as many as a quarter million Lebanese unable to prove that they have property or homes at all. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/14/lebanon-civil-records-israe/? D.C. Mayor Candidates Are Fixating on Teen Hangouts — and Turning the Cops on Them Kenyan McDuffie stood in a dark suit and gingham tie in front of an infamous Chipotle in southeast Washington, D.C. The day before, a video of teenagers fighting inside the fast-casual restaurant had gone viral — and presented the former city councilmember a political opportunity in his mayoral campaign. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/12/dc-mayor-teen-curfew-kenyan-mcduffie-janeese-lewis-george/? They Weren’t Convicted of Terrorism, But These Palestine Activists Got Sentenced as Terrorists Anyway Four UK-based Palestine solidarity activists were sentenced as terrorists on Friday for damaging military drones and other equipment at an Elbit Systems U.K. factory in 2024. Elbit, Israel’s largest arms manufacturer, has provided the vast majority of drones used in the Israeli military’s genocidal bombardment of Gaza, among other horrors. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/13/elbit-protest-palestine-action-uk-filton-25-terrorism-enhancement/? Hakeem Jeffries Finally Finds a Spine: Dem Leaders Rallied Against Extending Domestic Spy Law When the House of Representatives voted on a long-term extension of a controversial surveillance law in April, House Democratic leaders were content to let their members vote as they wished, dealing a blow to privacy advocates seeking reforms to a provision that allows domestic spying without a warrant. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/11/democrats-pulte-fisa-surveillance/? Scott Pelley Shows How Legacy Media Got It Wrong — Before Bari Weiss Made It Worse The battle over “60 Minutes” can teach us a lot about how someone like CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss can wreak havoc on our media ecosystem. What has gotten a lot less attention, however, is the way the fight shows us how ill-equipped our media institutions already were when it comes to covering the Trump administration and MAGA-era politics. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/11/bari-weiss-scott-pelley-60-minutes-cbs-news/? A Point-by-Point Breakdown of Trump’s Failed Iran War Objectives At the very start of his war with Iran, President Donald Trump declared victory. “We won,” ‌Trump announced on March 11, 11 days after launching the joint attack with Israel. “In the first hour it ⁠was over.” But more than 2,200 hours later, the conflict is obviously still raging. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/11/trump-iran-war-claims-failures/? ps:Pathetic ICE Should Show It Hasn’t Been “Infiltrated by Violent Extremists,” Senator Urges A Democratic senator has asked newly confirmed Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to explain the department’s racist social media presence and assure the agency has not been “infiltrated by violent extremists.” https://theintercept.com/2026/06/12/ice-infiltrated-violent-extremists-senator-whitehouse/? Indiana Banned Press From Executions for “Dignity.” It Actually Serves Repression. A few days before my best friend’s execution date in 2006, prison administrators granted me one last chance to see him in a legal visit. We discussed his concerns about the humaneness of the lethal injection that would kill him. I will never forget his terrified look. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/13/indiana-media-ban-death-penalty-law/? The Right’s “Election Fraud” Cry for Midterms Previewed in Primaries On Tuesday night, oyster farmer and combat veteran Graham Platner overwhelmingly sailed to victory in the Democratic Senate primary in Maine. His opponent, Gov. Janet Mills unofficially dropped out in late April, leaving Platner effectively unopposed. But a series of scandals rocked his candidacy, leaving his viability against Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November in question. https://theintercept.com/2026/06/12/california-maine-primaries/?

💥 Unions prep for 2028 AI war Illustration: Allie Carl / Axios 💪 MINNEAPOLIS — The nation's most powerful labor unions have a message for potential 2028 contenders for president: It's us or the machines. 😬 Why it matters: AI anxiety dominated much of the conversation at the AFL-CIO's national convention here last week, as leaders from the group's 65 affiliated unions called on politicians to impose significant AI regulations. Those planning a run for the White House are likely to have trouble satisfying both business-friendly Democrats and the party's progressive base, which is increasingly wary of or hostile to AI. State of play: Unions see opportunities for union labor to build data centers and other AI projects, but believe that both parties are falling short in plans to protect workers from the consequences of AI. 💰 "You're either with workers or you're with millionaires," AFL-CIO president Liz Shuler told us. "There's just been a dearth of leadership in terms of elected officials really prioritizing this and putting workers at the center." The AFL-CIO didn't invite potential 2028 candidates to the convention to avoid overly politicizing the event, but union leaders had plenty of criticism of their AI policies. Chrissy Lynch, president of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, said California Gov. Gavin Newsom's recent executive order on AI was "not helpful." "It says the right things, but it's just more research, and what we need is action," she argued. 🧐 But Lynch and others don't support a moratorium on building data centers that's supported by Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders. Building trade unions in particular see constructing data centers as a way to provide good-paying jobs, and believe that a moratorium would hurt their members. Zoom in: On Tuesday, union leaders spoke under a large banner declaring "AI should work for us" as they railed against AI-powered technology such as surveillance pricing, "bossware" programs, digital replicas, synthetics, data harvesting, discriminatory algorithms, and more. The unions passed a resolution declaring "Our message to elected leaders is clear and unequivocal: You can either stand with Big Tech's drive to maximize profits at all cost, or you can stand with working people in supporting responsible and careful technological change. But you can't do both." Between the lines: Many Democrats eyeing 2028 runs have been calling for more AI regulation, as polls indicate that voters are increasingly anxious about AI. That's been a reversal for some governors who previously had embraced many AI-related projects, and the jobs and business they could bring to their states. 🤺 AI is dividing Republicans as well. Although the Trump administration has been largely hands-off toward AI companies, potential GOP White House contenders such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley have been increasingly critical of the technology. Read more. — Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein

12 dead as a plane on a skydiving outing crashes in Missouri, authorities say BUTLER, Mo. (AP) — A plane carrying a pilot and 11 passengers on a skydiving outing in Missouri crashed in a field and was engulfed in flames Sunday, killing all aboard, authorities said. https://apnews.com/article/butler-missouri-plane-crash-dead-0f074de40ce690e76c19ffbe183d1875?

The big picture: The intersection of faith and public policy is tightening. Courts and legislatures remain the primary battlegrounds, with a distinct shift toward administrative action and conscience protections as… The post RELIGIOUS LIBERTY: A WEEKLY BRIEFING appeared first on ReligiousLiberty.TV. View the full article

A dozen men gathered to pray in a private home in University Heights, Ohio. The city responded with a cease-and-desist letter. That sequence, simple on its face, now sits before… The post An Orthodox Jew Prayed at Home. The Supreme Court Will Decide if He Can Sue the City That Stopped Him. appeared first on ReligiousLiberty.TV. View the full article

The view from Pepperdine’s law school in Malibu runs straight out to the Pacific. For three days in early June the people gathered there kept their attention on something harder… The post Pepperdine and Founders’ First Freedom Bring the Religious Freedom Conversation Home to Malibu appeared first on ReligiousLiberty.TV. View the full article

Oldest Iron Blooms Found in Shipwreck off Israel Coast But the LORD has taken you and brought you out of the iron furnace, out of Egypt, to be a people of his own inheritance, as you are this day. – Deuteronomy 4:20 (ESV) https://www.patternsofevidence.com/2026/06/11/oldest-iron-blooms-found-in-shipwreck-off-israel-coast/?

Gene Shalit, longtime ‘Today’ show movie critic with bushy hair and massive mustache, dies at 100 https://apnews.com/article/gene-shalit-dies-b8ed6f4b7054e530e5fba9a808902cca?

49ers mourn the sudden death of former All-Pro linebacker Aldon Smith at 36 https://apnews.com/article/aldon-smith-death-b26fe7eaddfd6494e23dbb36b9e15771?

Ford recalls more than 250,000 Focus models because engines can stall unexpectedly Ford is recalling more than 250,000 vehicles that were incorrectly repaired under a previous recall meant to fix a problem that caused the engine to stall while driving. https://apnews.com/article/ford-focus-recall-safety-engine-stall-21edfd428bacbf9c9f5a45c62e45c1d1? Nara Organics recalls baby formula sold at Target after multistate infant botulism outbreak SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Nara Organics recalled its organic baby formula sold nationwide in Target stores and online Saturday after a multistate outbreak of infant botulism, federal authorities said. https://apnews.com/article/infant-botulism-byheart-formula-outbreak-90a0a08910d1162d77b9eb65d63ed667?

Britain detains sanctioned oil tanker believed to be linked to Russia’s shadow fleet LONDON (AP) — Armed British forces boarded and detained a sanctioned tanker Sunday that is suspected of being part of the Russian “shadow fleet,” shipping oil in violation of international sanctions over Moscow’s war on Ukraine, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Sunday. https://apnews.com/article/shadow-fleet-russia-uk-starmer-moscow-110f493f617176d64d84e588754db091?

Thousands rally in Belfast to condemn anti-immigrant rioting that followed stabbing LONDON (AP) — Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Belfast on Saturday to denounce anti-immigrant rioters who set fire to homes and cars earlier in the week after a brutal stabbing blamed on an asylum seeker. https://apnews.com/article/belfast-stabbing-riot-racism-immigrants-5c0e74588be3473370ad360081401a54?

The skills people still perform better than AI, according to workplace experts Many workers fear machines will supplant them as adoption of artificial intelligence accelerates. But what if people have qualities both unmistakably human and essential to career success that AI could not easily replace them? Some workplace experts argue that with more businesses adopting AI tools, soft skills such as empathy, critical thinking and ethical decision-making are worth cultivating to help employees become indispensable. Read more. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Trump tried to block state AI regulations, but some states are forging ahead OpenAI hit with multistate probe into possible user harm as its IPO looms Anthropic says it has taken its latest AI models offline to comply with new export controls You can ignore AI giants like SpaceX, but your 401(k) won’t Visa plugs its payment network into ChatGPT, letting AI agents shop and pay for users

As UFOs go mainstream, the jury is out on what the existence of alien life might mean for religion In “Disclosure Day,” out Friday, Steven Spielberg is once again inviting audiences to ponder the existence of extraterrestrial life — and the implications it would have for religion on Earth. But Spielberg is hardly the only one making headlines of late about UFOs and the possibility of life on other planets. What was once considered fringe or conspiratorial has in recent months popped up everywhere from the White House to the Catholic Church, as public fascination with unidentified anomalous phenomena — or UAPs, as the government calls them — becomes more mainstream. Read more. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ New UFO files describe spinning discs, glowing orbs and one object shaped like a potato Movie Review: ‘Disclosure Day’ is classic Spielberg Neil deGrasse Tyson takes on aliens and how we should greet them in ‘Take Me to Your Leader’

Trump turns 80 with a showstopping spectacle of cage fights at the White House. But big issues loom President Donald Trump celebrates turning 80 with a UFC cage-fighting event on the White House's South Lawn. It's an unprecedented extravaganza marking his birthday in showstopping fashion, featuring seven fights and aligning with America's 250th anniversary. Trump's celebration on Sunday contrasts sharply with former President Joe Biden's low-key 80th birthday at the White House in 2022. The bash comes while the U.S. and Iran are discussing a deal to end the war, and after Trump's name was removed from Washington's Kennedy Center. At 80, polls show the public has concerns about the president's age — mirroring doubts his predecessor faced. But his physicians have said Trump is in excellent health. Read more. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Trump warns Israel and Iran not to ‘blow it’ after new strikes threaten emerging ceasefire deal US strike against Tren de Aragua leader in Venezuela exemplifies Trump’s approach to war on drugs Trump names James M. McDonald to lead powerful New York federal prosecutor’s office Alabama seeks to execute man by lethal injection after court ruled against nitrogen method A woman’s hypothermia death in Pittsburgh after her release from ICE custody is ruled a homicide Treasury expands bank data-sharing rules tied to Trump immigration crackdown Migrants deported from US, including an Iranian woman, arrive in Central African Republic Trump’s name is gone from the Kennedy Center’s facade after court rulings A Trump order asked national park visitors to flag ‘negative’ historical info. They had other ideas Judge orders Trump administration to restore National Park changes at sites that ‘disparaged’ US Paramount Skydance merger with Warner Bros. Discovery won’t harm competition, consumers, DOJ says America In Focus: Inflation hits 3-year high, Wall Street rallies and Musk becomes a trillionaire ‘Democrats want to win': Platner’s support reflects a changing party in the Trump era Trump administration blocks federal homelessness funds in Los Angeles Too sick to work, but can they prove it? New Medicaid rule worries patients

A tentative deal is reached to end the Iran war and Trump orders a stop to the US naval blockade ISLAMABAD (AP) — The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement early Monday to open the Strait of Hormuz and further extend a shaky ceasefire in the Iran war, potentially allowing desperately needed oil and natural gas to reach the global market. https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-ceasefire-deal-e0a9e4e1152ea8da10ea066ad174a23a?

🏛️ Pic du jour Kennedy Center lettering was covered in tarps yesterday. Photo: Rahmat Gul/AP The Kennedy Center has removed "all physical signage on the … building and grounds, including the front portico, that purports to rename the Kennedy Center after President Trump," Matt Floca, executive director and chief operating officer of the performing arts venue, told a federal court yesterday. Onlookers gathered on the plaza in front of the center, hoping to witness a dramatic moment. But a tarp concealed the lettering.

🐂 Fighting a political pest Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images So far, there are only a dozen cases. But the screwworm has arrived in the U.S. after a 60-year absence. The Trump administration is mobilizing to ensure the parasite doesn't threaten cattle in Texas and become a political pest. Why it matters: President Trump and the GOP are already reeling from soaring beef prices and accelerating inflation, Axios' Mike Zapler writes. ⚡ State of play: The Department of Agriculture tells Axios it's deploying a $1.3 billion "New World Screwworm response." That includes setting up a $750 million Texas plant to produce and release 300 million sterile male screwworm flies every week. The FDA is fast-tracking treatments. Threat level: The first U.S. case of screwworm was detected in South Texas on June 3. There have now been 12 confirmed cases in the U.S. — 11 in Texas and one in New Mexico. They've mostly been in cattle, but also in sheep, goats and a dog. The outbreak comes with beef prices near record highs and the cattle herd at its lowest level in 75 years, depressed by a prolonged drought. The screwworm's arrival hasn't measurably affected beef prices. But its spread in Mexico has cut cattle imports and added to price pressures. Data: World Organisation for Animal Health. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios 👀 The backstory: For decades, the screwworms had been contained in Panama. Starting in 2023, cases began popping up further and further north, until they crossed over onto U.S. soil this month. The pest's arrival comes a year after the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service lost more than 2,100 employees — roughly 25% of its workforce — as part of the administration's workforce cuts. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is blaming the Biden administration and attributing the spread of the flies to the northward migration of people and livestock.

Cruz readies '28 run Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is declaring independence from President Trump ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run, backing rivals to Trump-endorsed candidates in two high-profile GOP primaries, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports. Cruz announced he's backing Rick Jackson for Georgia governor and Alan Wilson for South Carolina governor. Jackson, a wealthy health care executive, faces Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in Georgia's June 16 runoff. Wilson, South Carolina's attorney general, is up against Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in a June 23 runoff. Cruz appears to be the only potential 2028 GOP contender to publicly break with Trump in either race, underscoring how reluctant other ambitious Republicans are to cross the president. 🔎 Behind the scenes: Cruz is laying groundwork for a '28 run. He's delivering high-profile speeches, and hosting a podcast and syndicated radio show, giving him entrée to small donors. Cruz privately told donors last year that Trump's tariffs would damage the economy and potentially cost Republicans control of Congress, Axios reported in January. In talks with donors, Cruz has trashed Vice President Vance. Keep reading.

Officials plan digital end to Iran war Amid war work inside, the Octagon on the South Lawn and the Fan Zone on the Ellipse are ready for tonight's UFC Freedom 250. Photo: Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images Latest intel from Axios' Barak Ravid, who has been first and right with every twist during this 107-day war: The U.S. and Iran, together with Pakistani and Qatari mediators, are expected to meet virtually today to electronically sign a memorandum of understanding that will extend the ceasefire 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Why it matters: The pending remote signing is a result of almost three months of negotiations between the U.S. and the Iranian regime, mediated by Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. The deal is expected to end the war and potentially stabilize global energy markets. Behind the scenes: U.S. officials and sources in the mediating countries confirmed the signing will take place virtually, mainly for logistical reasons. Vice President JD Vance, who's leading the U.S. negotiating team, wouldn't have been able to get back to the U.S. before President Trump leaves tomorrow for the G7 summit in Evian, France. What to watch: On Tuesday, President Trump will meet in France with G7 leaders, together with the leaders of Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, U.S. officials told reporters in a briefing. The meeting is expected to focus on the deal with Iran and opportunities in the region after the war ends. Another issue on the table is the Strait of Hormuz, and the international coalition that the UK and France have been working on to clear the strait of mines, the U.S. official said. Keep reading.

"Like cows looking at a new gate". LOL! I realize we don't see eye to eye on many things, but I do definitely enjoy your choice of words in some cases!

June 14, 2026 Good morning. The New York Knicks are N.B.A. champions for the first time in 53 years, after defeating the San Antonio Spurs, 94-90, in yet another come-from-behind win. Jalen Brunson, who scored 45 points last night, was named finals M.V.P. The series energized New York in a way few other events have, with celebrations in the streets after every victory. (See photos from last night’s party.) And it resonated far beyond the city, with higher TV ratings than any other N.B.A. finals this century. The games also attracted more than $700 million in bets on the prediction sites Kalshi and Polymarket. At the start of the series, the Spurs were the favorites. Bettors on those sites put San Antonio’s championship odds at over 60 percent. The Knicks proved them wrong. Betting is fundamentally about risk: You might win, or you might lose. But what if you could game the odds so that you’d always come out on top? A watch party outside Madison Square Garden last night. Dave Sanders for The New York Times Net gain By Evan Gorelick I’m a lifelong Knicks fan (but have never gambled on them). For the first game of the N.B.A. finals, my friends and I went to a bar offering a deal that seemed too good to be true: If the Knicks won, the bar would cover every customer’s tab, up to $100. As tipoff approached, young people variously clad in starched button-downs and Brunson jerseys galloped from nearby Midtown offices for a chance at free booze. The line snaked around the block, and the bouncer made a show of blocking the front entrance. People screeched at one another. My buddy, already inside, shooed me in through a side door. (I heard someone whine, “Why does he get to go in?”) Three hours later, when the Knicks overcame a 14-point deficit to take down the Spurs, strangers in the crowd were hugging and high-fiving. Outside, a passing garbage truck honked its horn in celebration. The entire city seemed to be shouting with joy. And at the Jeffrey, which bills itself as a neighborhood spot for “craft beer, cocktails and bites,” 726 beers, 385 cocktails and 175 smash burgers were on the house. Over the hedge When someone hands you a freebie, by all means: Take it. But you and I both know there ain’t no such thing as a truly free lunch. So while downing drinks, I kept asking myself whose money I was taking. Turns out, it belonged to Kalshi users who’d bet on San Antonio — in other words, deadbeats and turncoats who had it coming. (Kidding! Kind of.) Before the game, the bar’s owner, a 50-year-old corporate lawyer, had used the prediction market to bet $5,000 on the Knicks. Since the Spurs were the favorites, that position netted him around $8,000 when New York prevailed — enough to cover nearly everything the crowd had consumed. If the Knicks had lost, the bar would’ve been out the $5,000, but it could have covered its losses with all those drinks and smashburgers. (Plus the free publicity — you’re welcome.) The New York Times As I nursed my first beer, overhearing a guy behind me flirt with two women who work in finance, I flirted with my own idea for a hedge: What if I placed a small bet — $25, say — on the Spurs, so I, like the bar’s owner, could make winning a sure thing? Let me walk you through it. If the Knicks won, I’d be out my $25 bet. But the bar would cover my tab. For $50 worth of food and drinks, I’d be balling out at half price. If the Spurs won, my $25 hedge would turn into about $40. So I’d have to pay my own tab, but I’d be getting a discount — $50 of food and drinks for just $35. I told my friends about my brilliant plan, and they were mortified. It promised a financial coup, sure, but it was also a betrayal: Didn’t I believe in the Knicks? I closed Kalshi and ordered another round. Risk-free throw If you’re willing to take both sides of the same bet (and, let’s be honest, are not a true fan) then there’s a world of sure things waiting for you on prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket. And there’s a world of bettors profiting from them. I’ve spent the last few weeks digging into this phenomenon with Katherine Chui, a graphics reporter. This weekend, we published a new story about a popular betting strategy, called arbitrage, that takes it to the extreme. Folks in finance have used it for decades to game all manner of markets — stocks, derivatives, crypto. When President Trump’s tariff threats sent U.S. gold prices soaring last year, some traders made money by buying gold cheaply in London and selling it for a higher price in New York. Now savvy bettors use the same underlying strategy to make a killing on prediction sites. Ryan Noel makes a sport out of math. KC McGinnis for The New York Times Take Ryan Noel. He worked as an actuary after college but quit last year to arbitrage-bet (or “arb,” as he calls it) full time. He has made more than $1 million since late 2023, almost entirely on live sporting events. “I don’t care about sports at all,” said Noel, 25. “I think watching sports is the most boring thing you can do with your time. I’m a mathematician.” The math is pretty basic. It involves finding two sites with different odds for the same bet. Then you buy one position on one site, and the opposite position on the other site. Because of the disparity, you’ll turn a profit when the bets resolve — regardless of the game’s outcome. When done correctly, and fast enough, there’s almost no way to lose; it’s that elusive free lunch. But more and more Wall Street institutions are pouncing on the opportunity, deploying armies of bots to arb for them in fractions of a second. That speed and volume makes the disparities on prediction sites disappear almost instantly, which in turn makes it harder for human bettors like Noel. Read our story on prediction-market arbitrage here. We made diagrams to show how it works. More on the Knicks “So this is how it feels,” Matt Flegenheimer wrote of New Yorkers’ rapture last night. “It is giggling, weeping, spinning, convulsing, mosh-pitting, truck-honking, law-skirting, trumpet-playing, cowbell-ringing, off-key-singing, cigar-lighting, all-night-ing.” Read his whole story. The Athletic’s Ian O’Connor wrote on why these Knicks are the greatest team in New York sports history. A celebration parade is set for Thursday. ALL-AMERICAN BRAWL The U.F.C. ring outside the White House. Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times It’s Trump’s 80th birthday — and America’s 250th — and he’s celebrating the milestones with an Ultimate Fighting Championship cage match in his backyard. A towering, 600-ton steel claw has been built on the White House’s South Lawn, along with seating for 4,300 people, swiveling lights and video screens. Seven pairs of U.F.C. fighters will face off in the octagon at the center tonight, starting at 8 p.m. Eastern. Off in the corner, members of the U.S. Marine Band have set up amplifiers and drum sets. “We’re expecting Super Bowl-type numbers for this fight,” said Dana White, the chief executive of U.F.C., which expects to spend some $60 million on the event. Will that many people really tune in? We’ll have to wait and see. According to a new poll by Reuters and Ipsos, just 16 percent of Americans said it was “appropriate” for Trump to hold the fights at the White House. “It seems a provocative, P.T. Barnum-esque gambit for the president to be pulling at a time of high gas prices, low poll numbers and open war,” Shawn McCreesh writes. THE LATEST NEWS Around the World Tehran last week. Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times Iran: Trump said a peace deal would be signed today. But Iran’s Foreign Ministry cautioned that it could take longer than that. Ukraine: Russia’s ballistic-missile attacks have grown more fierce in recent weeks because Ukraine does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to defend itself. Venezuela: A joint strike by U.S. and Venezuelan forces killed a leader of the Tren de Aragua transnational gang, officials in both countries said. Economy In poll after poll, working-class white voters without a college degree — the core of Trump’s base — say they disapprove of his handling of the economy. Wealth is exploding for the few at the very top, while workers’ wages continue to slip. It’s no wonder Americans are so unhappy with the economy, writes Ben Casselman, our chief economics correspondent. Trump Administration The Trump administration ordered Anthropic to block foreign access to its newest artificial intelligence models, citing national security concerns. Trump plans to nominate a member of his personal legal team, James McDonald, to serve as the top federal prosecutor in Manhattan. FROM OPINION Anna Malina Popular culture assumes that middle-aged women are invisible in their lives. Mireille Silcoff asks: Why? Trump turns 80 today. Six notable older Americans, including Bob Dylan and Liza Minnelli, shared words of wisdom and advice. Human made. Human played. 75% off. Subscribe to New York Times Games for 75% off your first year. Our best offer is only available for a limited time. Relax and recharge with our full portfolio of games, including Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, the Crossword and more — all mindfully made by humans. MORNING READS “Skylanding,” an installation by Yoko Ono in Chicago. Akilah Townsend for The New York Times Beyond the ‘Obamalisk’: Here’s what to do on Chicago’s South Side. Stage 4 cancer: It’s not the immediate death sentence it once was. Even if there’s no cure, some patients now can live for years. Polarizing force: Not long ago, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee was untouchable. Then Democrats turned on it. BOOK OF THE WEEK By Elisabeth Egan “Land” by Maggie O’Farrell: Set in Ireland in the 1860s, O’Farrell’s elegiac new novel places readers in the aftermath of the Great Hunger, which killed over a million people and forced even more into exile. Our guides are Tomás, an Irish cartographer working for the British, and his young son, Liam, who are mapping a remote peninsula on the country’s west coast when Tomás has a revelatory experience that inspires him to chart a new path. “Like much of the Irish-British author’s previous work,” our reviewer wrote, “including her most famous, the 2020 book ‘Hamnet’ — adapted into a 2025 film by Chloé Zhao — ‘Land’ is a historical novel imbued with O’Farrell’s signature interest in absorbing family relationships.” (Read the full review here.) Want more books? Here are five new ones we love. THE INTERVIEW Devin Oktar Yalkin for The New York Times By Lulu Garcia-Navarro This week’s subject for The Interview is Seth Rogen, who stars in the upcoming film “The Invite” and is working on Season 2 of “The Studio,” a show he writes, directs and stars in. We talked about those projects, this strange moment in Hollywood and the ways his movies serve as a model for male friendship. Why do you think that version of male friendship translated so well onscreen? Me and Evan marvel that “Superbad” is a thing kids still really watch. Part of it is because it’s about exploring being vulnerable with your friends, and that’s a coming-of-age thing in its own right. I remember when I was moving to L.A., I did a bunch of shrooms with my friends. I was 16 years old and we were at my friend’s house, and the sun was coming up and I was laying on the couch, and my friend Fogell, who McLovin [the character in “Superbad”] is based on, was laying on the couch beside me. And I remember just being like: “I’m so terrified to move to Los Angeles to do this show and I’m not going to see you guys anymore. I don’t know anybody out there.” And he was like: “Yeah, man, high school ends next year for us too. I don’t know where any of us are going to college, if we’re going to be friends anymore.” It felt like a big moment, the first time any of us had really acknowledged to one another how much we cared about one another and how afraid we would be without one another. However we were able to bottle that feeling and put it into the movie seems to resonate. Read more of the interview here. Or watch a longer version on YouTube. THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE Illustration by Mario Hugo Read this week’s magazine. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Put your phone away 30 minutes before bed. It’ll help you sleep better. Carry your things in a stylish, durable tote bag. Life’s too short for a mediocre one. Churn homemade ice cream with a great ice cream maker. Feed your baby formula that combines value with evidence-backed benefits. MEAL PLAN Ghazalle Badiozamani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Brett Regot. The word “perfect” turns up a lot in the comments on this recipe for quick harissa apricot chicken from Zaynab Issa. If you’re feeding someone who doesn’t eat spicy food, try serving the dish with yogurt, which helps soothe the heat. NOW TIME TO PLAY Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was talkative. Can you put eight historical events — including the first vending machine, the writing of “Fahrenheit 451” and the founding of the Knicks — in chronological order? Take this week’s Flashback quiz. And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Crossplay, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Host: Sam Sifton Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Evan Gorelick, Brent Lewis, Lara McCoy, Karl Russell Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Editorial Director, Newsletters: Jodi Rudoren