McCain Ahead in Latest Poll Of Likely Voters

[John317]

Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama's trip and the "laudatory" media coverage of it. "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans," he says. Also, he says that McCain's sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.

Check Pollster.com's charts to compare the USA TODAY/Gallup results to those from other pollsters. Other recent polls of likely voters had Obama slightly ahead.

The USA TODAY/Gallup Poll is separate from Gallup's daily "tracking" poll on the presidential race, which this afternoon shows Obama ahead by 8 points among registered voters -- 48%-40%.

Frank says that while the tracking poll indicates Obama may have gotten some gains from his overseas trip last week, any benefits may be short-lived. That tracking poll of 2,674 registered voters was also done Friday-Sunday and the margins of error on the results are +/- 2 percentage points.

Original: http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/07/gains-for-mccai.html

[Woody]

People are starting to see how shallow Obama is.

[John317]

This is true. I hear it more often now. I think that is one reason that he has not "taken off" the way lots of people expected him to do after all the attention by the mass media. I thought by now he might be 10 to 15 % ahead of McCain. You'd think that with all the talk of people being mad at Bush and the Republicans, that they would be flocking to Obama, but they are evidently not doing that at the rate that was expected. This can't be a good sign for Obama.

However, there is still lots of time for things to change. So hang on. It ain't over by a long shot.

[Dr. Shane]

Polls really don't mean too much until a couple weeks after the Republican convention. Obama will get a bump after the Democratic convention and then McCain will get a bump after the Republican convention. A couple weeks after that the debates and heavy campaigning should start. The September and October polls will really give us an idea of who is going to win.

Both candidates have advantages and disadvantages. It should be an interesting election year.

[Neil D]

Ladies and Gentlemen,

ClubAdventist will feature regular news commentary from John317 with Shane, giving indepth analysis. Guest speakers from the ubber right will include pot-shots from Olger, ubber right analysis from Ichy, and an occassional moderate right from Redwood. Our overseas correspondant, Bravus will continue to give indepth analysis from the liberal overseas perspective, along with our US correspondant Carolaa providing moderate liberal views. The outraged liberal view pot-shots will come from yours truely, Neil D, along with some moderate liberal views expressed by Jeannie...

Guest speakers will include JASD, FCCOL, LifeHisCost, D.Allen, Reddog, and hopefully, you the next poster to this forum.

May you enjoy this rather unique blend that includes analysis of media, politics, and a liberal helping of spiritual viewpoints as applied to the political spectrum.

[Denise]

You have a good sense of humor Neil and a great imagination....you must of gotten an A in writing. :)

[Woody]

Great Post Neil. You really do have a talent. Now if you could just market it.

I agree with all you have said except for one:

Quote:

along with our US correspondant Carolaa providing moderate liberal views.

I know Carolaa and she ain't no moderate liberal. She's one of them there 'flaming liberals'.