The Next President Will Disappoint Us!

[Suzanne Sutton]

The Next President Will Disappoint Us!

This is an adaptation of an article by Andrew J. Bacevich, in the August 24, 2008 issue of the Los Angeles Times.

There is only so much a chief executive can do. On inauguration day, a new U.S. president is a demigod, the embodiment of aspirations as vast as they are varied. However over the course of the years that follow, the president inevitably fails to fulfill those lofty hopes. So the cycle begins anew, and cmericans look to the next occupant of the Oval Office to undo his predecessor"s shortcomings and usher in an era of lasting peace and sustained prosterity.

This time around, expectations are, if anythihng, loftier than usual. Youthful and charismatic, Sen. Obama casts himself as the standard-bearer of those keenest to fix Washington, redeem America, and save the world. "Yes we can," Obama's anthem proclaims, inviting supporters to complete the thought by inserting their own fondest desire. Yes we can: bring peace to the Middle East; reverse global warming; win the global war on terrorism.

And Sen. John McCain's campaign has been hardly shy about fostering grandiose expectations. Indeed, while most Americans are fretting about the cost of oil, he uncorked one of his patented straight-talking promises: "I'm going to lead our nation to energy independence."

Will the next president actually bring about Big Change? Don't get your hopes up. Regardless of who wins in November, we should temper our expectations on what the new president will accomplish, especially on foreign policy. Actually, presidnets don't make policy; administrations do....

The very structure of American politics imposes its own contraints. For all the clout that presidents have accrued since WWII, their prerogatives remain limited. A President McCain will almost certainly face a Congress controlled by a Democratic and therefore obstreperous majority. A President Obama, even if his own party runs the Senate and House, won't enjoy all that much latitude, especially when it comes to 3 areas in which the dead hand of the past weighs most heavily: defense policy, energy policy and the Arab-Israeli peace process. The military-industrial complex will inhibit efforts to curb the Pentagon's penchant for waste. Detroit and Big Oil will conspire to prolong the age of gas guzzling....If the past provides any indication, advocates of the status quo will mount a tenacious defense.

The limits of American power cannot be ignored, especially in the realm of military affairs. ...The next commander in chief will inherit an intractable troop shortage. The U.S. today finds itself with too much war and too few warriors. That alone will constrain a president conducting two ongoing conflicts.

A looming crisis of debt and dependeency will likewise tie the president's hands. Frankly, the U.S. has for too long lived beyond its means. With Americans importaing more than 60% of the oil they consume, the negative trade balance now about $800 billion annually, the federal deficit at record levels and the national debt approaching $10 trillion, the U.S. faces an urgent requirement to curb is profligate tendencies. Spending less (and saving more) implies settling for less. Yet among the campaign themes promoted by both presidential candidates, calls for national belt-tightening are muted.

And another factor to be considered: The rest of the world doesn't take its marching orders from Washington and won't, no matter who happens to be the new president. Governments will respond to American advice, threats or blandishments precisely to the extent that doing so serves their interests, and no further. This alone sharply restricts what the new administration will be able to accomplish, whether dealing with allies such as Israel and Pakistan or with adversaries such as Iran and North Korea.

The tone and tenor of American diplomacy under either candidate will differ from what we have seen over the last several years, and probably in ways that more nations--and many Amerivcans--will welcome. But no matter how much charisma or straight talk emanates from the White House, the world will remain stubbornly intractable. And in matters of substance, Big Change will remain elusive. The next president will leave his own imprint on U.S. policy. It just won't be nearly as distinctive or dramatic as the most enthusiastic Obama and McCain supporters have talked themselves into expecting. --Andrew J. Bacevich, a professor of history and international relations at Boston University, is the author of the new book "The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism."

Comments....

Suzanne

[carolaa]

Isn't that how it always is? Candidates tell us whatever we want to hear so they can get elected, but the reality always tempers things. Personally, I appreciate politicians who are forthright and paint a realistic picture, like Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. But the forthright ones never get elected. We happily vote for candidates who lie to us, as long as they tell us what we want to hear.

If you like Andrew Bacevich, here's a great interview he did last week:

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/8/20/the_limits_of_power_andrew_bacevich

[Bravus]

The next president will essentially have to be a janitor, and spend the first term at least and probably a lot more just cleaning up the messes Bush has left for him. In general that's going to take generations anyway, but I think it's true that expecting a New Rennaisance from the new president will lead to disappointment. About as much as can be expected is 'first, do no harm' and a start back onto the right track.

Of course, McCain is sworn to continue Bush's policies faster, harder and further... if he is the new president, may God help America and the world.

[Jeannieb43]

The next president will essentially have to be a janitor, and spend the first term at least and probably a lot more just cleaning up the messes Bush has left for him. In general that's going to take generations anyway, but I think it's true that expecting a New Rennaisance from the new president will lead to disappointment. About as much as can be expected is 'first, do no harm' and a start back onto the right track.

Of course, McCain is sworn to continue Bush's policies faster, harder and further... if he is the new president, may God help America and the world.

Bravus, you've said it perfectly.

If by some fluke, it turns out that more than 50% of the voters pick McCain, then I know for sure the Lord's coming is "nigh, even unto the door." This world can't last much longer on GWB's policies, which McCain has publicly announced he'll follow.

[there buster]

Fear not, The Obama has come. The Obama, "a leader that God has blessed us with at this time." (Nancy Pelosi)

Vero Possumus! Vero Possumus! Vero Possumus!

[olger]

Chump change.

[Neil D]

Fear not, The Obama has come. The Obama, "a leader that God has blessed us with at this time." (Nancy Pelosi)

Vero Possumus! Vero Possumus! Vero Possumus!

Ichy, you know better than to make a canidate into a god...What you are doing is un-SDA...How could you do such a thing...you should know better....

[there buster]

Oh ye of little faith!

Vero Possumus!

Vero Possumus!

Vero Possumus!

Bow before the One.