Earth to the President: warnings ignored at your peril

[aldona]

From today's edition of "The Australian";

Read the story here

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Below is a passage from the Houston Chronicle in 2001, which quoted the Federal Emergency Management Agency on the three most likely disasters to threaten the US.

They were an earthquake in San Francisco, a terrorist attack in New York city (predicted before September 11) and a hurricane hitting New Orleans.

Read this prophetic passage and weep: "The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all. In the face of an approaching storm, scientists say, the city's less-than-adequate evacuation routes would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet (6m) of water. Thousands of refugees could land in Houston. Economically, the toll would be shattering ... If an Allison-type storm were to strike New Orleans, or a category three storm or greater with at least 111mp/h (178km/h) winds, the results would be cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said."

Katrina was category four.

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[Naomi]

It does make you weep. And, when you stop weeping you become angry!

[Dr. Shane]

Everyone knew what was going to happen. It wasn't a matter of "if" but a matter of "when". That is why I am dumbfounded that the city wasn't more prepared. Why didn't these people even have life jackets in their homes? Where I live each of us are to have a hurricane kit in our homes. If we were in a flood plain, that would include a life jacket.

[Naomi]

You know Shane a life jacket would have been wonderful. Often times when people are so very poor, paying the price of a life jacket, or a pair of shoes for the childrens would have to be considered.

When i lived on the island in your area, some 50 miles closer than you ... unless you have moved, I don't recall people having all the things prepared which you mention. The life jackets were in the boats which people had at their docks.

And, when I think about it. Leaving the island is one small, very flat, two lane road that is under water with a medium sized rain. You would have to have 3 days notice to evaculate that very small area.

[Dr. Shane]

Cheap life jackets cost around $6. We have them for all of us but we are kind of paranoid too <img src="/ubbtreads/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" /> I have a nice-looking life vest for both my wife and I that we use whenever we swim at the island just in case a rip tide grabs us. Our kids have them too but that is more for use in our pool.

Hurricane kits are to include candles, flashlights, canned food, drinking water (always fill the bathtub), a battery operated radio, cell phone and (if you live in a flood plain) an axe (to get from your attic onto your roof) and a life jacket. More and more people are buying generators now since they are becoming more affordable.

The road to South Padre Island must have been upgraded since you lived here. I moved here in 1998 and it was four lanes then and has never flooded since I have lived here. TXDOT has plans to build a second road and bridge to the island that will most likely be about 10 miles north of the existing one. The primary purpose would be for hurricane evacuation since the island is growing so much. Texas is obviously a few steps ahead of LA.

[Ron Lambert]

If the city government had just heeded the appeals to improve the deteriorating levees, the disaster could have been avoided. It was not hurricane Katrina per se that devastated the city, it was the two levees that broke and allowed water to flood the city from Lake Pontchartrain.

[there buster]

Craig Martelle: FEMA is not a first responder

Don't be so quick to pillory the federal response in New Orleans. Immediate emergency management is primarily a local and state responsibility

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

As one who has received training by FEMA in emergency management and also training by the Department of Defense in consequence management, I believe that the federal response in New Orleans needs clarification.

The key to emergency management starts at the local level and expands to the state level. Emergency planning generally does not include any federal guarantees, as there can only be limited ones from the federal level for any local plan. FEMA provides free training, education, assistance and respond in case of an emergency, but the local and state officials run their own emergency management program.

Prior development of an emergency plan, addressing all foreseeable contingencies, is the absolute requirement of the local government --and then they share that plan with the state emergency managers to ensure that the state authorities can provide necessary assets not available at the local level. Additionally, good planning will include applicable elements of the federal government (those located in the local area). These processes are well established, but are contingent upon the personal drive of both hired and elected officials at the local level.

I've reviewed the New Orleans emergency management plan. Here is an important section in the first paragraph.

"We coordinate all city departments and allied state and federal agencies which respond to citywide disasters and emergencies through the development and constant updating of an integrated multi-hazard plan. All requests for federal disaster assistance and federal funding subsequent to disaster declarations are also made through this office. Our authority is defined by the Louisiana Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act of 1993, Chapter 6 Section 709, Paragraph B, 'Each parish shall maintain a Disaster Agency which, except as otherwise provided under this act, has jurisdiction over and serves the entire parish.' "

Check the plan -- the "we" in this case is the office of the mayor, Ray Nagin who was very quick and vocal about blaming everyone but his own office. A telling picture, at left, taken by The Associated Press on Sept. 1 and widely circulated on the Internet shows a school bus park, apparently filled to capacity with buses, under about four feet of water. If a mandatory evacuation was ordered, why weren't all the taxpayer-purchased buses used in the effort?

Who could have predicted the anarchy resulting as a consequence? The individuals who devolved into lawless animals embarrass the entirety of America. (I worked in a U.S. Embassy overseas for a couple years and I can imagine what foreign diplomats are thinking.) What societal factors would ever lead people to believe that this behavior was even remotely acceptable?

The folks in New Orleans who are perpetrating the violence and lawlessness are not that way because of low income or of race, but because they personally do not have any honor or commitment to higher ideals. The civil-rights leaders should be ashamed at playing the blame game.

The blame is on the individuals. The blame is on the society that allowed these individuals to develop the ideal that the individual is greater than the national pride he is destroying. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was very clear in her comments that she was offended at those who suggested the suffering in New Orleans was prolonged because of race.

As a retired Marine, I hang my head in shame to see my fellow Americans degenerate so far. I spent so many years in the Corps helping the citizens of other countries rise to a higher level of personal responsibility to ensure that in case of emergency, anarchy did not necessarily follow. When people are held to a higher standard of personal responsibility and they accept that, then they will do the right thing when the time comes.

It seems that the mayor of New Orleans is leading the effort in not taking responsibility for his actions. The emergency managers for the state of Louisiana do not have much to say either. The failure in the first 48 hours to provide direction for survivors is theirs to live with. When FEMA was able to take over, it started out behind and had to develop its plan on the fly. Now the federal government has established priorities -- rescue the stranded, evacuate the city, flow in resources and fix the levee. It appears that now there is a plan and it is being systematically executed.

Hurricane Katrina was a national tragedy -- not just in the number of lives lost or the amount of physical damage, but also in the failure of people to do what is right when no one is looking.

Craig Martelle, retired as a major in the U.S. Marine Corps, lives in North Huntingdon. He recently launched the Strategic Outlook Institute, a public-policy organization.

[Jeannieb43]

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Naomi said:

You know Shane a life jacket would have been wonderful. Often times when people are so very poor, paying the price of a life jacket, or a pair of shoes for the childrens would have to be considered.

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These people didn't even have money for FOOD.

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Leaving the island is one small, very flat, two lane road that is under water with a medium sized rain. You would have to have 3 days notice to evaculate that very small area.

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And you'd have to have a CAR.

It's obvious that no provision had been made for evacuation by mass transportation. Those poor people just don't HAVE automobiles.

And FEMA [or HHS or whatever] had THREE DAYS' notice ahead of the onslaught of the storm itself. A lot of people could have been moved in that amount of time (by buses, planes or trains). If that type of transportation had been OFFERED and refused -- THEN those who stayed behind would have been rightfully to blame for their situation. But not so under the circumstances which actually existed.

[Bravus]

I actually agree with Mr Martelle: if you rape or murder just because there's no law enforcement, that's not about poverty, it's about your character, and you deserve the full penalty of law when you're caught - and not to be defended by anyone in the mean time. The other side of that story is the media's responsibility, of course: how many poor people did they show helping their neighbours, rescuing others, offering a helping hand? And yet I'm sure a lot of that happened.

The general thrust of the right-wing spin to protect the president is that it's all on the state and local levels and the federal level comes up smelling of roses. That's nonsense - there were errors both in what was done after and immediately before the hurricane and in what was done in the preceding few years at all three levels of government. I'm completely willing to concede that the local and state governments fell down on the job, but I'm not buying into the complete vindication of the federal government.

[Gail]

This may be moot, but do the poor count when it comes to projecting for the future (at any governmental level)?

I think that there must be a reason that Jesus reminded us that "the poor you will have with you always"

[there buster]

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The general thrust of the right-wing spin to protect the president is that it's all on the state and local levels and the federal level comes up smelling of roses. That's nonsense

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Note the date of the "Natural Hazards Observer" article:

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The Natural Hazards Observer ( November 2004) again:

"Regional and national rescue resources would have to respond as rapidly as possible and would require augmentation by local private vessels (assuming some survived).

And, even with this help, federal and state governments have estimated that it would take 10 days to rescue all those stranded within the city.

No shelters within the city would be free of risk from rising water. Because of this threat, the American Red Cross will not open shelters in New Orleans during hurricanes greater than category 2; staffing them would put employees and volunteers at risk. For Ivan, only the Superdome was made available as a refuge of last resort for the medically challenged and the homeless."

It was to take ten days for rescue to get everyone out, not counting the dead. And city and state officials knew it would take ten days. For them to cry in the current crisis that 72 hours is unacceptable rings more than a little hollow. (empahsis supplied)

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How clever of them to have begun "spinning" nearly a year in advance. And how clever to have used a professional journal to print "nonsense." No doubt the diabolical Karl Rove did it. Perhaps he's the anti-Christ?

[Norman Byers, N.D.]

Hi Ed,

Thank you for posting that. It's nice to read the truth. I think many of our people have forgotten what the Bible says and are siding with the wrong kind of people.

"2 Peter 2:10 But chiefly them that walk after the flesh in the lust of uncleanness, and [:"blue"] despise government. Presumptuous are they, selfwilled, they are not afraid to speak evil of dignities. [/]

I am not saying this is us but that we should be careful what we say and who we accuse or else we may be thought of as the people discribed in that verse.

Our calling is the Gospel.

Norman

[Dr. Shane]

Today I heard that in the training FEMA provides local communities they tell them not to expect federal assistance for 72 - 96 hours after the disaster strikes.

HOWEVER - that said - FEMA should have realised the incompetence they were dealing with in New Orleans since the mayor had told the city's poorest a month earlier that in the event of a hurricane everyone was on their own. Well there is a promise a politician kept. He told them they would be on their own and they were. In light of such incompentance and indifference by the local government, FEMA should have been better prepared to move in.

[CyberGuy]

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If an Allison-type storm were to strike New Orleans, or a category three storm or greater with at least 111mp/h (178km/h) winds, the results would be cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said."

Katrina was category four.

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Not Exactly. New Orleans was hit with 100 MPH winds and there was only 8 feet of water max. It was the dikes breaking after the storm passed that did the most damage.

You see the winds cycle counter clockwise. The eye was 15 miles to the east of new orleans so the winds were coming from the north pushing the sea away from the city. It was the dikes breaking afterwords that caused the most damage.

To the west of the eye the winds were catagory three with 133 MPH winds with a storm surge of 20 plus feet hitting Missisippi. If that had hit New Orleans it would have been far worse than it was.

[CyberGuy]

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Today I heard that in the training FEMA provides local communities they tell them not to expect federal assistance for 72 - 96 hours after the disaster strikes.

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We are told if we have a major earthquake in Southern California not to expect massive aid for 72 hours. We will have only ourselves and each other to for help. We are told to have three days of canned food and bottled water on hand just in case of an major earthquake.

[Bravus]

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It was to take ten days for rescue to get everyone out, not counting the dead. And city and state officials knew it would take ten days. For them to cry in the current crisis that 72 hours is unacceptable rings more than a little hollow.

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Erm, the 10 days was to finish, the 3 days was to *start*.

Given that we're all agreed the majority of the damage was caused by the levees breaking, remind me again which level of government is responsible for the Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for the levees? And which level of government has reduced funding to that particular program by 44% over the past 2 years? Remind me again which branch of government folded FEMA into DHS, where the focus was almost exclusively on terrorism response and where there was virtually no culture or skills around natural disaster relief?

The article says it was a disaster waiting to happen, and the federal responses to that disaster were abysmal. So were the state and local, agreed.

[Bravus]

Story from the San Jose Mercury News: (free login required): http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/12574946.htm

"WASHINGTON -- The government's disaster chief waited until hours after Hurricane Katrina had already struck the Gulf Coast before asking his boss to dispatch 1,000 Homeland Security employees to the region -- and gave them two days to arrive, according to internal documents.

Michael Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, sought the approval from Homeland Security Secretary Mike Chertoff roughly five hours after Katrina made landfall on Aug. 29. Brown said that among duties of these employees was to "convey a positive image" about the government's response for victims.

Before then, FEMA had positioned smaller rescue and communications teams across the Gulf Coast. But officials acknowledged Tuesday the first department-wide appeal for help came only as the storm raged.

Brown's memo to Chertoff described Katrina as "this near catastrophic event" but otherwise lacked any urgent language. The memo politely ended, "Thank you for your consideration in helping us to meet our responsibilities."

The initial responses of the government and Brown came under escalating criticism as the breadth of destruction and death grew. President Bush and Congress on Tuesday pledged separate investigations into the federal response to Katrina. "Governments at all levels failed," said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine."

[Bravus]

And from Salon (yes, I know it's a left-wing rag, but the sources it cites in this story are pretty solid):

"During the 1990s, FEMA was routinely praised as one of the best-functioning federal agencies. Its response to the Midwestern floods of 1993, the Northridge earthquake of 1994, and 1995's Oklahoma City terrorist attack are considered models of emergency response. By contrast, its performance during Katrina is almost universally acknowledged to have been abysmally poor. At first, FEMA's post-Katrina failure appears baffling: What happened to the once-great FEMA? But George Haddow, who served as the deputy chief of staff at FEMA under James Lee Witt, Bill Clinton's FEMA director, thinks that FEMA's current flaws are all too understandable -- and are a direct consequence of the Bush administration's decision to pull the federal government out of the natural disaster-relief business and turn over more power to state and local officials."

Kinda convenient, huh?

[there buster]

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Erm, the 10 days was to finish, the 3 days was to *start*.

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I didn't realize I'd have to do the math for you. Landfall is Monday. 72 hrs later is? THURSDAY.

The best case scenario was that they would begin THURSDAY. Many of the articles and posts here were already denouncing the feds, and, of course Bush, on Wednesday.

As Mark Twain said, "A lie can go around the world three times while the truth is putting its boots on."

I can only guess that none of the critics actually has any experience trying to put together and implement any kind of emergency action plan. I have. And I can tell you absolutely, that if the people on the spot blow it, it will cause difficulty all the way up the line--sometimes incapacitaing difficulties..

What happened here is clear. New Orleans and LA officials didn't even have plans in many cases, and in others they were plans in name only. When Katrina hit, this absence of responsibility became obvious. The feds are overccoming these problems, but without local intelligence and logistics, it's much harder. That's the truth.

I am dismayed that so many Christians are so easily led into evil surmising.

[Bravus]

Let me ask you not to make it a religious issue. This is a political issue, let's keep it there. This is one of the problems we see on this forum: casting aspersions on the Christianity and faith of those with whom we disagree politically. We can disagree politically with respect, but using these kinds of slurs on the good faith of other believers is inappropriate.

[there buster]

Not nearly so convenient as the left's exoneration of Clinton for decimating our intelligence capabilities through draconian budget cuts.

Another incovenient fact for the "blame Bush" crazies. The sainted Jamie Lee Witt was hired by Gov. Blanco to help her deal with this emergency. So much for his mastery--he's "coordinated" the inept state response here.

[Gail]

I saw briefly some words from the president on the disaster.

But- he was talking about the war on terrorism before he went on to discuss further the disaster he was there to inspect

I thought, How are the two subjects related? What does terrorism have to do with the struggle here?

I guess I should have listened more, but I didn't want to hear about the war on terrorism at that moment. It wasn't enough to hold my interest and I clicked elsewhere

[there buster]

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Let me ask you not to make it a religious issue.

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Oh, that was deft. It's perversely inspiring to see a really skilled manipulator in action.

I did not make it a religious issue. Whether or not anyone acted responsibly on this emergency, Christians have the same obligation not to leap to conclusions that surmise evil.

That goes on here all the time, and it is NOT a matter of relition. People of all religions do it. Looking at al Jazeera, the Muslim press does little else.

It is a matter of character. And you imply things about Bush's and others characters all the time. Convenient. Deceptive. Duplicitous. "Spinning."

If you want to deal with "aspersions" why not start with the title of this thread? Or dozens of others. Or is it just permissible for some? Why not crack down on it across the board?

So I have to ask you to demonstrate some integrity on this issue, and stick to facts. You stick to facts, casting no aspersions, and I will also. Few would recognize the debate, but it would be refreshing.

[Bravus]

There's clearly no point in talkng further to you. Enjoy 'ignore'.

[Amelia]

Earth To Everyone:

Lets stay on topic! Please do not make this a brother against brother or sister against sister thread. I do not want to pull the plug from the bathtub.