Candidates for President in 2024

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💰 2 presidents, 2 approaches to tariffs

By Neil Irwin

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto, and Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images

💸 Tariffs raise prices for consumers, create economic blowback and should be used sparingly or not at all. That was the consensus among top U.S. political leadership for decades, and among economists for longer than that. Not anymore. Trump and Biden both have embraced taxing imports as a key economic tool — but they have distinctly different approaches when it comes to the details. 🗳️ How the winner of the November election uses those tools will help determine the U.S. economy's course in the second half of the 2020s. 👀 Mainstream economic thought sees tariffs as inflationary — impeding consumers' ability to obtain goods from the most efficient global producers. When trading partners inevitably retaliate, it damages exporters' prospects. "We're seeing an increase ... in tariffs being treated as an offensive weapon, as opposed to as a way to build stronger ties between nations," Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, tells Axios. 🇨🇳 Trump's ideas include a new 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and a 10% across-the-board tax on imports from around the world. The Peterson Institute for International Economics calculates that the combination of existing tariffs and the ideas Trump has suggested would cost middle-income families $1,700 a year in higher prices. 🛟 Trump also reportedly floated using tariff revenue to replace the income tax — an idea tax experts view as implausible. 🚙 Last month, the Biden administration rolled out a suite of tariffs on Chinese exports of electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors and more. Biden's "tough, targeted approach combining investment and enforcement in key sectors is a sharp departure from the prior administration," White House economic adviser Lael Brainard said last month. But Biden mostly left Trump's China tariffs in place, even as inflation surged. And he's taken steps that cause friction with allies, including heavy subsidies to U.S. electric carmakers and a pledge to stop Japan's Nippon Steel from buying U.S. Steel. 🚀 16 Nobel economists have endorsed Biden's economic policies, saying Trump's would boost inflation. Read more

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Calm, conservative, confident: What GOP senators want in Trump’s vice presidential pick

WASHINGTON — Republican members of the U.S. Senate striving for a takeover of their chamber in the November elections have a wish list for what they’d like to see in Donald Trump’s running mate.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/25/calm-conservative-confident-what-gop-senators-want-in-trumps-vice-presidential-pick/?

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Biden pardons potentially thousands of ex-service members convicted under now-repealed gay sex ban

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden pardoned potentially thousands of former U.S. service members convicted of violating a now-repealed military ban on consensual gay sex, saying Wednesday that he is “righting an historic wrong” to clear the way for them to regain lost benefits.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-lgbtq-pride-pardon-military-pentagon-sodomy-a83b799323380de10aac0ca6fb57595b?

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🐝 Flight of the VP wannabes

Trump's top VP-wannabes are making the pilgrimage to Atlanta to be close at hand during tomorrow's presidential debate — even though they can't be in the audience.

• Veepstakes speculation has reached a fever pitch amid rumors that Trump's decision could come as soon as this week, public trolling by top campaign officials and a round of TV interviews with the top contenders.

🔎 Zoom in: Republican Sens. J.D. Vance (Ohio), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Tim Scott (S.C.) will join Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) as well as Gov. Doug Burgum (N.D.) and former HUD Secretary Ben Carson at the RNC fundraiser and watch party in Atlanta, according to a copy of the invite obtained by Axios.

• All have been considered as possible running mates, including receiving vetting documents.
• Tickets to the event cost $10,000 a couple— or $25,000 for seats at a table with Trump surrogates. Fundraising prowess has been a top consideration for Trump's VP pick, as Axios has reported.

👀 What to watch: Some of those on the list for the fundraiser are expected to be in the spin room to tout Trump after the debate — though the two lists will differ some, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

• President Biden and Trump agreed there would be no live audience in the debate hall — a term Biden's campaign pushed for.

🦊 In the first of several Fox News interviews with VP candidates, Vance said today he'd be disappointed if Trump didn't pick him as his running mate.

Read more

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📺 Scoop: Biden zeroes in on Project 2025

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

The Biden campaign is using tonight's CNN debate (9 p.m. ET) to launch a new offensive against Trump allies' transformational second-term plans, known as Project 2025, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: The Biden campaign wants to convince jaded voters that a second Trump presidency poses grave risks to the country. The transition agenda was published by the Heritage Foundation with input from close Trump allies and former aides — some of whom are likely to take top jobs if he wins. The Project 2025 proposals — which isn't an official campaign platform — have started to attract more attention online as more Americans tune into the race. (The Trump campaign has its own Agenda47.) Google search interest in "Project 2025" surged earlier this month. A John Oliver segment on Trump's plans for a second term racked up nearly 5 million views on YouTube in under a week. The Biden campaign is trying to capitalize on the viral momentum with a new website and a series of digital and physical ads across Atlanta, the site of the debate. It's also seeking to leverage influencers on TikTok.

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Dems' "sense of doom"

President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden arrive for a campaign event today at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. Photo: Cornell Watson/Bloomberg via Getty Images President Biden today acknowledged his poor performance in last night's debate — and tried to calm Democrats' panic with a comparatively high-energy rally and a plug from former President Obama. "I don't speak as smoothly as I used to," Biden said at a rally in North Carolina. "I don't debate as well as I used to." 🚨 Biden's halting, stammering performance forced Democrats' once-hushed fears about November into the open. There has been private, theoretical discussion about Biden being replaced on the ticket, several Democratic lawmakers told Axios — though they acknowledged the decision is ultimately his to make. "There's a lot of chatter out there about whether we can do something, just a general unanimity that it was bad and a sense of doom," one lawmaker said. ⚡️ The intrigue: Top Democrats told Axios today that First Lady Jill Biden would be the only person who could persuade her husband to step aside. "Joe, you did such a great job," Jill Biden told him when they visited a post-debate rally party last night. "You answered every question. You knew all the facts."

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Here’s why it would be tough for Democrats to replace Joe Biden on the presidential ticket

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden’s halting debate performance has led some in his own party to begin questioning whether he should be replaced on the ballot before November.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-replacement-democratic-ballot-dnc-rules-7aa836b0ae642a68eec86cc0bebd3772?

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Man charged with threatening to kill presidential candidates found dead as jury was deciding verdict

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — A New Hampshire man charged with threatening the lives of presidential candidates last year has been found dead while a jury was deciding his verdict, according to court filings Thursday.

https://apnews.com/article/death-threats-trial-presidential-candidates-ff728a4116a4ab7b21fdaf64e7173b25?

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Biden oligarchy will decide fate

Forget the pundits. Ignore New York Times editorials and columnists. Tune out people popping off on X, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a Behind the Curtain column.

• The only way President Biden steps aside, despite his debate debacle, is if the same small group of lifelong loyalists who enabled his run suddenly — and shockingly — decides it's time for him to call it quits.

Why it matters: Dr. Jill Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden; and 85-year-old Ted Kaufman, the president's longtime friend and constant adviser — plus a small band of White House advisers — are the only Biden deciders.

This decades-long kitchen cabinet operates as an extended family, council of elders and governing oligarchy. These allies alone hold sway over decisions big and small in Biden's life and presidency.

• The president engaged in no organized process outside his family in deciding to run for a second term, the N.Y. Times' Peter Baker reports.
• Then Biden alone made the decision, people close to him tell us.

Behind the scenes: If Biden stays in, it's for the same reason he decided to run again. He and the oligarchy believe he has a much better chance of beating former President Trump than Vice President Harris does.

• Biden allies have played out the scenarios and see little chance of anyone besides Harris winning the nomination if he stepped aside.
• Is the Democratic Party going to deny the nomination to the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American to be elected V.P.? Hard to see.
• These allies privately think Harris would struggle to pull moderate and swing voters, and would enhance Trump's chances. (Harris "fares only one or two points worse than Biden in polls with margins of sampling error that are much larger than that," The Washington Post found.)

The intrigue: We're told Democratic congressional leaders are one outside force that could bring pressure on Biden.

• They're getting calls and texts from panicked lawmakers who fear Biden's weakness could cost the party House and Senate seats in November.

"This is no longer about Joe Biden's family or his emotions," said an adviser in constant touch with the West Wing. "This is about our country. It's an utter f***ing disaster that has to be addressed."

• It'll take a while for the oligarchy to process the stakes, this adviser argued, "but there will be a reckoning."

Behind the scenes: Biden insiders are already finding it easier than many realized to rationalize staying in. They argue: Yes, he had a poor debate performance. But Biden also can dial up vigorous appearances like he did in Raleigh yesterday afternoon.

• That behind-the-scenes juxtaposition plays out daily: Sometimes he's on his game, sharper than people would think, and quicker on his feet.
• But often it's the Biden you saw on the debate stage: tired, slow, halting.

Top Democrats saw what America saw live, on national TV, vividly and unforgettably. They can't unsee it. And they fear voters won't unsee it.

• No longer can they blame critics or edited footage or media exaggeration.
• Every misstep, verbal hiccup or frozen face will zip across social media and TV, reminding voters Biden will be 86 years old at the end of his second term.

"They need to tell him the absolute truth about where he is," said a well-known Democrat who often talks to the president. "Loyalty doesn't mean blind loyalty."

• "Candidates for House, Senate, governor, state legislature are going to be in survival mode," the well-known Democrat added. "They're not going to go down with the ship. And the ship is in a bad place."

Column continues below.

 

🔎 Behind the Curtain: Family digs in

Some Biden family members are digging in — squinting at overnight polls for signs that undecided voters moved Biden's way because of Trump statements at the debate, Mike and Jim write.

• "They know it was a disaster," said a source close to the family. "But they think there's a glimmer of survival/hope."
• In a Biden campaign memo, "Independent Voters Move to Biden in Debate," officials wrote: "Based on research we conducted during [the] debate, it is clear that the more voters heard from Donald Trump, the more they remembered why they dislike him."

🎤 Biden — bolstered by a tweet from former President Obama ("Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know") — sounds like he wants to stick it out.

• "When you get knocked down, you get back up," Biden said to applause, reading from a teleprompter yesterday at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds.
• "Folks, I don't walk as easy as I used to. I don't speak as smoothly as I used to. I don't debate as well as I used to. But ... I know how to tell the truth."

🕶️ What we're watching: The public backing of former presidents and current members of Congress says little about Biden's future.

• Most know him too well and for too long to humiliate him in public.
• Instead, if he decides to go, it'll follow private conversations with them — then a decision with this oligarchy. Remember, it's under eight weeks until Biden is ratified as the official nominee. That's the clock to watch.

⚜️ James Carville — the "Ragin' Cajun" who masterminded Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign in 1992, and now is a frequent TV pundit — will be 80 in October. He told us that if he appeared like Biden did during the debate, he'd want to be pulled off the tube.

• "I never thought this was a nifty idea," Carville said of Biden's run. He said there are few people the president really listens to: "He doesn't have advisers. He has employees."

When we pressed Carville on whether he thinks Biden will be off the ticket by Election Day, he said he thinks so. He invoked a famous quote by the late economist Herb Stein, which Carville paraphrased as: "That which can't continue … won't."

 

🤔 Two Joe Bidens

The past 36 hours showcased two Joe Bidens: the veteran president rallying voters in a swing state, and an 81-year-old man struggling to string thoughts together in a debate, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.

• Why it matters: The split screen isn't new inside the White House. To try to blunt concerns about Biden's age, top aides have meticulously stage-managed such minutiae as his sleep schedule, his orthopedic shoes, his walks to Marine One and his climb aboard Air Force One.

Internally, many aides have seen flashes of an absent-minded Biden. They typically brush these moments off as ordinary brain farts because they usually see him engaged, eight current and former Biden officials told Axios.

• But the debate shattered White House efforts to show Biden at his best: a president capable of serving until 2029, when he'd be 86. Biden often looked lost or slack-jawed, and delivered meandering answers in a hoarse voice.

Some campaign aides projected calm yesterday, framing the debate as just a bad night that they'd recover from. Other aides, donors and senior Democrats were deeply shaken.

• The aides even expressed new worries about whether the president could carry out his duties through another four-year term.

⏰ Behind the scenes: From 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., Biden is dependably engaged. Many of his public events are held within those hours.

• Outside that time range, or while traveling abroad, Biden is more likely to have verbal miscues and become fatigued.

Some of the close-knit Biden aides who prepped him for the debate told confidants beforehand that they were optimistic — that he'd done well in their practice sessions.

• After Thursday's 90-minute debate, which began at 9 p.m., CNN's cameras captured Dr. Jill Biden gingerly helping her husband descend the few stairs by the podium.

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What scares Democrats most

It's not just Joe Biden's age. It's not just his debate debacle, which made the president look slow, old, foggy. It's what's next that truly worries even Biden's biggest supporters, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a Behind the Curtain column.

• These Democrats fear that if three years as president took this much of a toll, Biden could look, act, sound and feel a lot worse at 86, after five more years. And Democrats would be devastated if Donald Trump won because voters concluded Biden's time has passed.

Why it matters: Top Democrats worry Biden's situation hits too close to home for too many to ignore. Most people have watched a loved one decline — at first slowly, then dramatically — as they hit their mid-80s. These Democrats fear the party, not just Biden, would pay for ignoring this.

A Democratic official talked us through the gentle approach to getting Biden to end his run on his terms. This official, who demanded anonymity for self-evident reasons, said Biden's sister, Valerie Biden, and longtime friend, Ted Kaufman, should make this case to the president:

• "This is not about him submitting to the will of others yelling at him that he failed. Joe Biden is too proud for that argument. He will not be dragged off the stage," said the official, who is outside the White House and campaign.
• "The goal is to let him walk off the stage. He came; he saw; he conquered. He wanted to get rid of Trump for the country; he wanted to prepare America for the future; and he wanted to help nurture the next generation to be a transitional president."

"He can say to himself, in all honesty: All three have now been accomplished," the strategist continued. "He got rid of Trump; helped prepare America through his legislation for the future; and, under his tenure, a generation of new Democrats have emerged."

• "You've got to give him the dignity to walk off on his own. The idea that it would happen in the immediate aftermath is clueless."

We can't stress enough how many Democrats, including top congressional leaders and longtime Biden friends, are pushing for this conversation to happen this weekend.

• Lauren Hitt, senior spokesperson for the Biden campaign, told us: "The president is absolutely not dropping out."

🔎 Behind the scenes: Some Biden insiders think the debate disaster was more of a voice issue than an age issue.

• "We did practices at night, but we cut all practices short to save his failing voice," a source familiar with Biden's debate prep at Camp David told us. "The voice was a concern all week."

💡 Between the lines: Two things can be and are true at once. Biden, in public and private settings, is usually lucid, deeply engaged and fully capable. That's the consensus view, even of Democrats who think he shouldn't have run again because of his age.

• At the same time, they see what America saw in Atlanta on Thursday night: a president who can seem foggy, episodically confused, prone to tripping over words, or losing a thought mid-sentence.

White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates said: "Not only does the President perform around the clock, but he maintains a schedule that tires younger aides, including foreign trips into active war zones, and he proves he has that capacity by delivering tangible results that pundits had declared impossible."

• Column continues below.

 

🔮 Camp David conversation

Cover: TIME

Democrats tell us privately that there's a perceptible increase in the number of times today, versus three years ago, where the signs of old age show. Hence their concern that this will only get worse, Mike and Jim write. Yes, Trump is almost as old (78 vs. Biden's 81) — and often says weird, confusing, just plain wrong things in public settings. But polls show age is less of an issue for him, partly because his voters love the hyperbole and histrionics. The other side: When asked for comment, the White House and the Biden campaign each offered an official to talk on the record about how the president's debate performance doesn't tell the full story. 1. Brett McGurk, White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, has worked closely with the past four presidents. He's constantly in the Situation Room with Biden, and gets the president's comments and questions back from his nightly prep packet. "If what is being written now about President Biden were true, history would be very different," McGurk told us in a half-hour phone interview. He said Biden's "strategic empathy," wisdom, experience and familiarity with the globe from his years as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are "an incredible national asset." McGurk has seen Biden direct real-time operations for up to five hours at a stretch. And after the terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7, McGurk was there for a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, when Biden was "reasoning in a Socratic way and talking them off the ledge." Meeting with special forces commanders in 2022 before the U.S. killing of Hajji Abdullah, the global leader of ISIS, Biden offered a prescient warning about suicide vests. "He has lived these issues," McGurk said. 2. Molly Murphy — a pollster for the Biden campaign, and president of Impact Research — set up a focus group in a Midwest battleground with about 60 swing voters, who used dials to show their mid-debate reactions. She says that when it came to deciding who to vote for, participants showed they were more concerned about the candidates' substance than style. "They did not think the president had a great performance," Murphy conceded in a phone interview. But she said Biden came out ahead when voters were asked who should lead the country, and which candidate was more likable, knowledgeable and presidential. The voters panned Trump's answers on Jan. 6 and Vladimir Putin. 💬 What they're saying: The campaign last night released a memo from Jen O'Malley Dillon, who heads Biden's campaign, pointing to encouraging data despite the "familiar story" of "the beltway class" counting Biden out. "On every metric that matters," JOD wrote, polling shows the debate "did nothing to change the American people's perception, our supporters are more fired up than ever, and Donald Trump only reminded voters of why they fired him four years ago." But the memo includes this memorable disclaimer: "If we do see changes in polling in the coming weeks, it will not be the first time that overblown media narratives have driven temporary dips in the polls." 🔮 What's next: Biden arrived late last night at Camp David, where he's expected to have a family conversation about whether he's "in" or "out." Go deeper: Read the campaign memo ...   Aides shielded Biden, but couldn't hide debate Joe Biden's close aides have carefully shielded him from people inside and outside the White House since the beginning of his presidency, Axios' Alex Thompson reports. Why it matters: The intermittent access has resulted in many current and former White House aides being shocked at the 81-year-old president's limitations at Thursday night's debate. 📷 "It's time for Joe to go." That's what Chandler West, the White House's deputy director of photography from January 2021 to May 2022, wrote in an Instagram story after the debate. "I know many of these people and how the White House operates. They will say he has a 'cold' or just experienced a 'bad night,' but for weeks and months, in private, they have all said what we saw last night — Joe is not as strong as he was just a couple of years ago," West wrote. Reached by phone, West said he wrote the post because "the debate was not the first bad day, and it's not gonna be the last." 🕶️ Behind the scenes: Biden's behavior stunned many in the White House in part because Biden's closest aides — often led by Jill Biden's top aide, Anthony Bernal, and deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini — took steps early in his term to rope off the president. Even the White House's residence staff, which serves the first family in the mansion's living quarters, has been kept at arm's length. A White House official said the president "is deeply appreciative of the residence staff's work, but is unused to being waited on regularly or having butlers, so some staff are often allowed to go home early." White House Deputy Press Secretary Andrew Bates told us: "In every administration, there are individuals who would prefer to spend more time with the President and senior officials."

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A private call of top Democrats fuels more insider anger about Biden’s debate performance

A sense of concern is growing inside the top ranks of the Democratic Party that leaders of Joe Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee are not taking seriously enough the impact of the president’s troubling debate performance earlier in the week. Read more.

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Can Anything Stop the Democratic National Convention From Being a Biden Coronation?

“The Democratic Party is more invested in trying to maintain control than it is in trying to win an election in November,” said one DNC member.

https://theintercept.com/2024/06/28/biden-debate-dnc/?

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Biden’s family tells him to stay in the race President Joe Biden’s family used a Sunday gathering at Camp David to urge him to stay in the race and keep fighting despite his dreadful debate performance, and some members criticized how his staff prepared him for the faceoff, according to four people familiar with the discussions. Read more.

Why this matters: At this point in the delegate process, Biden would likely have to decide to drop out for there to be a new nominee. And the people he listens to most in the world — his wife and son — are telling him to stay in. While his family was aware of how poorly he performed against Donald Trump, they also think he’s the best person to beat him, according to people who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.   The gathering was an exercise in trying to figure out how to quell Democratic anxiety that exploded following Thursday’s performance. Biden’s campaign has spent the days since the debate working to keep donors and surrogates on board as Democrats increasingly questioned whether he should stay in the race.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Biden makes appeals to donors as concerns persist over his presidential debate performance   For many voters, the Biden-Trump debate means a tough choice just got tougher   A Supreme Court decision on Trump’s immunity looms

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Biden's salvation plan

A massive political, PR and personal campaign is underway to reject calls for President Biden to drop his re-election race — and rally Democrats to move on from public debate about age and his future, top officials tell us, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a Behind the Curtain column.

• Why it matters: Biden has zero interest in stepping aside — and First Lady Jill Biden and key family members and friends agree, according to people who talk regularly with them.

The intrigue: Biden, who has ducked tough interviews and avoided no-holds-barred press conferences, is now considering both. Look for a town hall or big one-on-one interview this month.

⚡ The latest: During a family gathering at Camp David on Sunday, Biden family members, including Hunter, went through with a long-scheduled session with celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz. The Bidens insisted the president stay in the race, we're told by people close to them.

• "They're all-in, and want him to stay in," a Biden source told us, adding that the campaign is "charging ahead."

🔎 Behind the scenes: Some Biden friends and family blamed longtime aides who had prepped Biden. They complained about everything from data-heavy answers to his makeup to his briefing on camera angles.

• But the president smoothed it over: He called former chief of staff Ron Klain, who led the team, and one of the things they talked about was that neither he nor the family blames the prep.
• Campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz told us: "The aides who prepped the president have been with him for years, often decades, seeing him through victories and challenges. He maintains strong confidence in them."
• Klain, who is expected to lead Biden's prep for the second debate — on ABC on Sept. 10 — told us: "In 38 years of working with Joe Biden, we've had many successes and some failures. I'm always happy to share in the good results and assume my share of the responsibility for the times we've come up short."

State of play: Biden's inner circle argues that one bad night of a scratchy voice and a few mangled answers doesn't warrant ending it all. So they're unleashing the full power of the White House and top Democrats to resist the loud calls for him to give up the race.

• The biggest argument will be that Biden won the Democratic primaries overwhelmingly, and that result is final.

"You guys don't get to decide," a source close to Biden said, referring to high-profile Democrats now second-guessing Biden as nominee. "That's not how this works. We don't have smoke-filled rooms."

• "They just have to cool down," the source added. "We live in a democracy, at least for now."

Column continues below.

 

🗳️ Part 2: 8 steps to survive

Graphic: CBS News Based on our weekend conversations with top officials and advisers, here's the Biden survival strategy, Jim and Mike write: Dismiss "bedwetting." The official White House and campaign line is this is much ado about nothing — that Biden works so hard it drains his young staff. This attitude is driving elected officials and donors — basically any top Democrat not on the Biden payroll — nuts. They feel it's delusional. Nonetheless, Biden allies are cranking out data and pushing out surrogates to insist he had one bad night, mostly because of a scratchy voice and over-preparation. Squeeze polls for juice. Biden allies are circulating polls and focus group results showing the debate did little to change the dynamics of the race. They're ignoring contrarian results — like a CBS/YouGov poll out Sunday that shows a surge in voters who think Biden is not up for the job. If you're to believe the polls: Voters thought Biden lost the debate and seemed too old. But there's little evidence they're moving fast to Trump. Both seem true. Warn of chaos. Biden allies are making plain in private conversations the perils of an open convention — and the risk of picking a Democrat even more unpopular than Biden, namely Vice President Kamala Harris. They know Biden just needs to make it to the Democratic convention in Chicago, which opens eight weeks from today. After that, unity is the only choice. Limit dissent. Biden allies helped orchestrate the supportive tweets by former Presidents Clinton and Obama. Those happened after furious back-channeling by allies. Truth is, that was the easy part. Keep elected leaders close. The White House knows Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries are deeply concerned that an unpopular Biden could cost them seats on Election Day. Their members in tough races are scared, and several plan to run away from Biden. Former Sen. Tom Harkin, who served with Biden in the Senate for 20+ years, said in an email to supporters that the debate was "a disaster from which Biden cannot recover." Get the donor class to chill. Jeffery Katzenberg and other top Biden backers are working the phones to reassure the deep pockets, while the campaign and DNC keep turning out fundraising appeals and highlighting successes. Some donors are blaming the staff — not the man on stage. John Morgan, a Florida personal-injury-law magnate who's a top Democratic donor, tweeted Sunday that Biden's debate-prep team is guilty of political malpractice: "Format was a disaster for him and a plus for Trump. He over practiced and was drained." Prove vitality. Words can't capture how elated top officials were that Biden was as vigorous as he was at a rally in North Carolina the day after the debate. They're looking for as many opportunities as possible to show that he's still on his game and not too old for the gig. They know words are useless — they need vitality in action. Ignore/engage the media. On the one hand, Biden allies want everyone to ignore the prominent columnists who loved Biden and are now calling for his resignation. On the other, the campaign and White House are deeply engaged with reporters (like us) writing about presidential fitness. 🕶️ What's next: Biden's kitchen cabinet sees a recipe for a narrow victory that includes a grand-slam speech at the Democratic convention in Chicago + a strong showing in the next second debate + positive economic news in the fall (maybe a Fed rate cut). The bottom line: Biden's camp believes voters will give more weight to Biden's judgment and record than to his grandpa gait or fading debate dexterity. It's one of the greatest gambles in the history of politics. Once again, Biden's team is telling Democratic voters: You just have to believe. Go deeper: "48 Hours to Fix a 90-Minute Mess: Inside the Biden Camp's Post-Debate Frenzy" (N.Y. Times — gift link)

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Presidential race

 

President Joe Biden's family is encouraging him to stay in the 2024 race, offering their "unequivocal support" during a family gathering at Camp David on Sunday, according to two Biden advisers. The meeting came as Biden and his campaign are confronting an avalanche of calls for the president to drop out after his dismal performance during last week's CNN presidential debate. Sources say the family has also discussed whether any of Biden's top advisers should be fired and whether campaign staffing changes should be made. A new CBS/YouGov poll found 72% of registered voters now believe Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, compared to 28% of voters who said he should stay in the race.

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☀️ Trump's summer bump

🎯 It's hard to imagine a better week of news for Donald Trump — a positive new poll, followed by President Biden's disastrous debate performance and a Supreme Court ruling that's likely to delay the former president's trial on charges he tried to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.

• 🌊 Trump gets to ride the wave into a critical phase of his campaign with the Republican National Convention meeting in two weeks, while Democrats publicly question whether they're backing the wrong candidate.

🗳️ If Trump wins the Nov. 5 election, analysts might point to the last several days as the moment the tide turned. At the very least, it's the low point of Biden's campaign. Here's a recap:

• 📈 Wednesday, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump with his biggest lead yet over Biden among likely voters — despite Trump's May 30 felony conviction. The Times noted the poll was an outlier.
• Thursday, Biden had what might be the most disastrous political moment of his career, struggling through the 90-minute debate. Trump largely kept his cool but spewed misinformation — and went largely unchecked while doing so.
• It fueled a weekend of wall-to-wall coverage of a dismayed Democratic Party and speculation over whether the president could be persuaded to withdraw from the race.
• ⚖️ On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling that could provide a clearer path for a potential second Trump administration to quickly reverse Biden's climate and other regulatory policies.
• And this morning, the court ruled 6-3 that presidents have immunity for official acts — providing Trump cover for some of the criminal charges he still faces and all but guaranteeing that his Jan. 6 case won't go to trial before the election.

What they're saying: "We've certainly had a strong week," Trump spokesperson Danielle Alvarez told Axios.

• "Democrats are descending into total chaos while the Republican Party is united behind President Donald Trump headed into the fall," National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) told Axios in a statement.
• Trump called the ruling a vindication, posting on Truth Social: "The Supreme Court totally dismantled most of the charges against me. Joe Biden should now call off his dogs."

The other side: Democrats admit it hasn't been a great few days for Biden but argue it wasn't a particularly winning time for Trump either.

• 💵 The campaign has touted Thursday's debate day as its best grassroots fundraising day, and is trying to use today's ruling to focus voters' attention on Trump's role in the Jan. 6 attack and the potential for him to have unfettered powers if he's re-elected.
• "Donald Trump did not have a good debate night either. Voters didn't like what they saw from him," Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy told MSNBC.
• Since the debate, Trump "has taken his unhinged tirades to social media, radio, and rally stages" and is "doubling down on threats to our democracy," campaign spokesperson Ammar Moussa told Axios in a statement.

Read more

 

⚖️ Ruling focuses Dems on Trump's threat

🎨 Democrats are painting a grim picture of what today's Supreme Court ruling would mean for a second Trump term, saying it could give a president bent on chaos unfettered power to carry it out.

• 🥊 They're also vowing to fight back by pressing legislation aimed at reining in the court and through an ad campaign warning about the risk of re-electing Trump.
• The moves come as Democrats are trying to direct voters' attention toward Trump — and away from Biden's lackluster debate performance.

⚡️ House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in a statement reacting to the ruling, said House Democrats "will engage in aggressive oversight and legislative activity" in response.

• The aim, he said, will be to "ensure that the extreme, far-right justices in the majority are brought into compliance with the Constitution."

💥 Today's opinion "weaponizes, beyond even Donald Trump's wildest fantasies, the power and the immunity he would have to go after anybody he perceives as his enemies," Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) told Axios.

• "There would be no boundaries, no safeguards. Our lives would be upended," Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) said.
• "People are waking up today realizing: 'Holy sh*t, this is happening. This is really a scary time in the country,'" Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said.

To drive home that message, the Democratic National Committee will take over the digital homepages of three major battleground-state newspapers tomorrow, hitting Trump as a threat to democracy, Axios has learned.

• The DNC's takeover of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Philadelphia Inquirer and the Arizona Republic's homepages will underscore the connection between the court's ruling and Trump's refusal to say he'll accept the 2024 election results, Axios has learned.
• The pages will direct readers to a new digital ad featuring clips from the debate when Trump — three times — would not commit to accepting the outcome of the Nov. 5 vote, along with footage of the Jan. 6 riot.

Read more here and here

 

⏰ The clock's ticking on Biden critics

👀 Many top Democratic donors are carefully watching polls over the next several weeks before deciding whether to call for Biden to be replaced on the party's ticket before the party's convention begins Aug. 19.

• 📆 But the calendar for any such change is a lot shorter than that.

🗳️ As Axios' Hans Nichols reported in May, Democrats plan to hold a virtual roll call of delegates well before the convention because Ohio requires parties to submit candidates' names for its ballot by Aug. 7.

• The roll call could happen as early as July 21, Bloomberg first reported today.
• That would mean the window for replacing Biden is here, for just a couple of weeks — and no one's sure how that would work anyway.

Biden's team has been rushing to shore up its support among Democratic officeholders, allies and donors since his debate debacle, while noting the president won nearly 4,000 party delegates in the primaries.

• 😬 That hasn't tamped down many senior Democrats' anxiety about Biden being a drag on the party's House and Senate candidates — but he is showing no inclination to step aside.

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Despite poor debate performance and questions about age, FL Dems insist Biden remains their man

The day after President Joe Biden’s debate debacle in Atlanta, Florida Democrats willing to go on the record insisted he remains their only choice to defeat Donald Trump in November.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/28/despite-poor-debate-performance-and-questions-about-age-fl-dems-insist-biden-remains-their-man/?

Democrats reel from ‘terrible’ Biden debate performance as he defends candidacy

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden touched on a flood of criticism of his debate performance during a rally on Friday, while Democrats interviewed on Capitol Hill said the party must figure out a way to reassure voters after what they described as a “terrible” showing and a “bad night.”

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/28/democrats-reel-from-terrible-biden-debate-performance-as-he-defends-candidacy/?

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Imperial presidency in waiting

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Former President Trump, if re-elected, plans to immediately test the boundaries of presidential and governing power, knowing the restraints of Congress and the courts are dramatically looser than during his first term, his advisers tell Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen for a Behind the Curtain column. Why it matters: It's not just the Supreme Court ruling on Monday that presidents enjoy substantial legal immunity for actions in office. Trump would come to office with a cabinet and staff pre-vetted for loyalty, and a fully compliant Republican coalition in Congress — devoid of critics in positions of real power. That's a big reason many Democrats worry President Biden is making one of the biggest gambles in U.S. history by staying in the race amid acute concerns about his age. 🖼️ The big picture: Trump promises an unabashedly imperial presidency — one that would turn the Justice Department against critics, deport millions of people in the U.S. illegally, slap 10% tariffs on thousands of products, and fire perhaps tens of thousands of government staff deemed insufficiently loyal. He'd stretch the powers of the presidency in ways not seen in our lifetime. He says this consistently and clearly — so it's not conjecture. You might like this or loathe this. But it's coming, fast and furious, if he's elected. Thanks to yesterday's Supreme Court ruling, Trump could pursue his plans without fear of punishment or restraint. 👀 What to watch: To hear Trump and his allies tell it, this is how early 2025 would unfold if he wins: A re-elected Trump would set up vast camps and deport millions of people in the U.S. illegally. He could invoke the Insurrection Act and use troops to lock down the southern border. In Washington, Trump would move to fire potentially tens of thousands of civil servants using a controversial interpretation of law and procedure. He'd replace many of them with pre-vetted loyalists. He'd centralize power over the Justice Department, historically an independent check on presidential power. He plans to nominate a trusted loyalist for attorney general, and has threatened to target and even imprison critics. He could demand the federal cases against him cease immediately. Many of the Jan. 6 convicts could be pardoned — a promise Trump has made at campaign rallies, where he hails them as patriots, not criminals. Investigations of the Bidens would begin. Trump says he'd slap 10% tariffs on most imported goods, igniting a possible trade war and risking short-term inflation. He argues this would give him leverage to create better trade terms to benefit consumers. Conversation would intensify about when Justices Clarence Thomas, 76, and Sam Alito, 74, would retire. Lists of potential successors are already drawn up. President Biden said last month that "the next president is likely to have two new Supreme Court nominees." If Trump were to win and the two oldest justices retired, five of the nine justices would have been handpicked by Trump. Column continues below.   🗳️ Trump 2025: better prepared, more powerful   Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, where the Republican National Convention will open 13 days from today. Photo: Tannen Maury/AFP via Getty Images Top Democrats privately predict Republican majorities in the House and Senate if Biden loses. Most of Trump's most prominent critics — Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, et al. — will be gone. Even the few who remain, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), will be substantially less powerful. Trump would be backed by an overwhelmingly Trump-friendly Senate and House — loaded with loyalists, top to bottom. Many were elected since his 2016 win, and many thanks to his endorsement. 🏛️ Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a top prospect as Trump's VP, told us Trump would have more allies — and more loyal allies — in Congress this time. "You have to ask yourself: How many true allies of the agenda existed in the United States Capitol in January 2017, and how many will exist in January of 2025?" Vance told us. "You have a Republican Party that, in some ways, was divided against itself in January of 2017," Vance added. "I think now it recognizes that Trump is effectively leader of the party. And you'll see that in governing style and certainly in agenda," with "much less infighting between Republicans, which will make us much more effective as a governing coalition." The freshman senator said that while Trump was "very much a newcomer to politics" when he ran the first time, he now "understands how to pull the levers of power much better, because he's coming at this as a subject matter expert." Today's headlines show new power Trump would hold in a second term. The media would investigate, report, and illuminate all of it — but probably with less impact. A second Trump term would start with TV ratings in the tank, mainstream media shrinking, and public attention shattering into dozens of information ecosystems, many built around popular and often partisan celebrities. So the ability to do more with fewer real restraints is real — and hard to change. The bottom line: Think of Trump 2025 as a better prepared, much better organized, much more powerful version of Trump 2017 — minus Republican brakes and any mystery about immunity. Go deeper: Agenda47 (Trump's official plans) ... "If Trump Wins" (N.Y. Times takeaways).

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📱 Biden damage control

Anxious Democratic donors grilled Biden campaign officials on a Zoom call yesterday, pressing Biden's team on how it will deal with new concerns about his fitness for office, Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson report.

• Why it matters: There wasn't much panic during the special call for wealthy donors — but there was a fair degree of skepticism.

Donors didn't find the campaign's answers totally satisfying.

• "I don't know what the pathway forward is, and I think they are trying to figure that out, too," one donor told Axios.

Officials were asked what the campaign would do if polling showed a significant drop in support for Biden.

• They told donors they expect Biden's polling to take a slight hit after the debate. But they pointed to internal polling they said indicates the race is largely unchanged, with Trump holding a slight lead in swing states.

Keep reading.

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👀 Biden's salvation plan

A massive political, PR, and personal campaign is underway to reject calls for President Biden to drop his reelection race — and rally Democrats to move on from public debate about age and his future.

• Why it matters: Biden has zero interest in stepping aside — and first lady Jill Biden and key family members and friends agree, according to people who talk regularly with them.

The intrigue: Biden, who has ducked tough interviews and avoided no-holds-barred press conferences, is now considering both. Look for a town hall or big one-on-one interview this month.

⚡ The latest: During a family gathering at Camp David on Sunday, Biden family members, including Hunter, went through with a long-scheduled session with celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz. The Bidens insisted the president stay in the race, we're told by people close to them.

State of play: Biden's inner circle argues that one bad night of a scratchy voice and a few mangled answers doesn't warrant ending it all. So they're unleashing the full power of the White House and top Democrats to resist the loud calls for him to give up the race.

• The biggest argument will be that Biden won the Democratic primaries overwhelmingly and that result is final.

More on Biden's strategy.

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Rep. Lloyd Doggett becomes first Democrat in Congress to call for Biden’s withdrawal from 2024 race

WASHINGTON (AP) — A House Democratic lawmaker has become the first in the party to publicly call for President Joe Biden to step down as the party’s nominee for president, citing Biden’s debate performance against Donald Trump failing to “effectively defend his many accomplishments.”

https://apnews.com/article/biden-doggett-2024-election-98c3bd8c4138245e7ef8f79d621268e8?

 

Dems' dam breaks on Biden

By Andrew Solender, David Lindsey and Stef W. Kight

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP, Al Drago, Jemal Countess and Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

💥 Five days after President Biden's terrible debate, the dam holding together Democrats' support for the 81-year-old president broke open today. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first Democratic lawmaker to call for Biden to step aside, and there were signs more could follow. Another Texas Democrat, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, certainly seemed to go there in an appearance on MSNBC. ⚡️ "I think that this is going to open the floodgates," Castro said. "I actually don't see a path now for President Biden to stay in this race for the long term." 🐊 Democrats across Capitol Hill — increasingly worried about Biden being a drag on their races and Republicans winning both the House and Senate — made clear Biden's debate problem wasn't going away. Many said the Biden campaign's attempt to quash concerns about the president's political strength and fitness for office — in part by casting doubters as overwrought — was backfiring. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) made waves by saying of Biden's fitness: "I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?" Her office later said she still had confidence in Biden. ⚠️ "Some of us don't want to wake up on Nov. 6 kicking ourselves because we had all of these red flags and warnings and we couldn't muster the courage to do something about it," one House Democrat told Axios. Meanwhile, a pre-planned meeting of House Democrats intended to focus on the party's political messaging devolved into a grievance fest about Biden, Axios has learned. 📉 CNN released a poll indicating that 75% of Americans think Democrats have a better chance of winning the White House with another candidate besides Biden. It also said Vice President Kamala Harris would fare better than Biden against former President Trump. 🗣️ What they're saying: Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), in an interview with Semafor, chastised the campaign for its "dismissive attitude," alluding to a fundraising email last week that brushed off those with concerns as "bedwetters." 😬 "There is a lot of apprehension. ... There's no other way to describe it," Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) told Axios. Quigley said public worries are surfacing this week because it "took some time to process" the fallout from Biden's poor showing in the debate. Pointing to Trump's Project 2025 plans and the Supreme Court's immunity decision on presidential actions, Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said Democrats "must be laser-focused on winning, not hand-wringing, or sentimentality, or insulting each other as 'bedwetters,' or anything else." 😡 The "bedwetters" line has lawmakers particularly up in arms, with one House Democrat telling Axios indignantly, "Consider me a 'bedwetter.' This is not getting better." "This is real! To ignore what the public obviously feels is ridiculous. ... What's hard to burn away is the president being walked off the stage by his wife down the stairs," added the lawmaker, who spoke anonymously citing political sensitivities. Several House Democrats told Axios they think Biden should meet with the Democratic Caucus to address lawmakers' concerns. "Explain what happened and explain how it won't happen again," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio). Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) suggested meeting with the caucus would be "important" for Biden and said the president should also sit down with a TV news anchor who has a "high degree of respect." 📺 Later in the day, Biden's team announced he'd sit for an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, to be aired Friday. Biden's campaign referred us to a past statement from spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg that Biden "is absolutely not dropping out." Read more

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Pressure is building on Biden to step aside. But many Democrats feel powerless to replace him

WASHINGTON (AP) — Bernie Sanders describes President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance as “painful.” In an interview, he says he’s not confident that Biden can win this fall.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-debate-democrats-trump-trapped-c10c872f8436966096b45b6089adee8b?

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📱GOP ad targets Harris

A new digital ad by the GOP's House campaign arm features Vice President Harris.

• Why it matters: Trying to leverage concerns about President Biden's age, Republicans are increasingly pushing the idea that a vote for him is really a vote for his running mate, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke reports.

YouTube of the ad.

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Presidential race

 

President Joe Biden is expected to meet with Democratic governors and congressional leaders today as pressure builds to defend his mental fitness for office. The White House on Tuesday sought to assuage concerns following Biden's poor performance in last week’s debate, saying his focus is going to be on continuing "to deliver for the American people on the issues that they care about.” Meanwhile, a Manhattan judge has postponed former President Donald Trump's sentencing in his hush money case until September. The move underscores the far-reaching implications of Monday's Supreme Court immunity ruling — and likely means Trump will escape any concrete punishment for his felony conviction during the summer.

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Harris tries to hold the line for Biden as some Democrats panic over election

WASHINGTON (AP) — By the time Vice President Kamala Harris stepped into her third fundraiser since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate last week, she had her routine down.

https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-joe-biden-debate-election-2024-3b9e6d404fcfd0938c0b576c366ce6aa?