Voting, Voting Rights, Voter Challenges, Elections, Election Rules & Election Fraud_1

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'24 court war begins

Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios

Five months before Election Day, the legal battle over the 2024 race is already raging — with clear signs Trump plans to once again cry "rigged" if he loses, Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson write. Why it matters: It's the GOP's "election integrity" vs. Democrats' "voter protection." 🐘 Former President Trump's team is so far more focused on building a sprawling network of "election integrity" lawyers and poll watchers than rounding up organizers and door knockers to reach voters. The Trump-controlled RNC is assembling a network of lawyers and volunteers to gather string for lawsuits challenging the results of the Nov. 5 vote. 🔬 Zoom in: The RNC, along with state Republican parties and groups, including Stephen Miller's America First Legal, already have filed dozens of election-related lawsuits in 25 states. Several of the lawsuits seek to prevent states from counting mail-in ballots missing a date or received after Election Day. Others are challenging whether states have maintained accurate voter registration lists, prevented noncitizens from voting and tightened voter ID rules. The other side: Democrats are responding to the onslaught of GOP lawsuits with their own legal challenges. Some are spearheaded by the DNC and election lawyer Marc Elias' firm, which is operating independently from the Biden campaign. "The DNC has built a robust voter-protection operation, investing tens of millions of dollars to protect against MAGA Republicans' assault on our voting rights," DNC spokesperson Alex Floyd told Axios.

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Kansas Constitution does not include a right to vote, state Supreme Court majority says

The Kansas Supreme Court offered a mixed bag in a ruling Friday that combined several challenges to a 2021 election law, siding with state officials on one provision, reviving challenges to others and offering the possibility that at least one will be halted before this year’s general election.

https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-kansas-supreme-court-0a0b5eea5c57cf54a9597d8a6f8a300e?

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Trump’s case casts a spotlight on the movement to restore voting rights to those convicted of felonies Republican-led states have historically made it difficult for those convicted of a felony to vote or have barred it altogether. Now the Republicans’ presumptive nominee for president, who lives in one of those states, is among them. Read more.

Why this matters: Advocates hope Trump’s case convinces the public of the need to make regaining voting rights simple and straightforward. Some conservative states have restored voting rights for people convicted of felonies, including Nebraska and Oklahoma. Bills are pending in the Democratic-leaning states of Massachusetts and New York.   The Sentencing Project says roughly 4.4 million people remain unable to vote because of past felony convictions, with 1.1 million of those in Florida, Trump’s newly adopted state. If Trump had been convicted in Florida, he likely would have needed intervention from Gov. Ron DeSantis to regain his voting rights.   Restoring voting rights to those convicted of felonies is the rare issue that sometimes generates bipartisan support. “Generally, the consensus is that people should have the right to vote, especially if they’re living in their community and paying taxes,” said Blair Bowie of the Campaign Legal Center.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Running for US president from prison? Eugene V. Debs did it, a century ago   Is Trump still under a gag order after his conviction? He thinks so, but the answer isn’t clear   Here’s where all the cases against Trump stand

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Cooling on Biden

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

The Sunrise Movement, a national organization of young progressives that helped President Biden shape his 2020 climate agenda, is withholding its endorsement of him in 2024, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. Why it matters: Young voters were central to Biden's winning coalition in 2020 and recent polls have shown their support for the president slipping. 😒 Biden's position on college protests and the Israel-Hamas war, as well as his approval of some fossil fuel projects, is leaving some folks decidedly apathetic about backing him in 2024. Go deeper.

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🗳️ Biden's swing state test on abortion

By Erin Doherty

Data: Axios research; Chart: Axios Visuals 👀 Democrats hope the backlash to the recent blitz of state abortion restrictions will continue to give them a boost in November. But the bigger question is how much it will help President Biden in the battleground states likely to decide the election. ⚖️ Since the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have won midterm and state elections when abortion was on the ballot. The potency of the issue will now be tested in a presidential election, in which many voters appear more focused on the economy and immigration. "The challenge for the Biden campaign is that even though you've had large support for abortion rights on the ballot ... that doesn't necessarily mean those same voters are going to be willing to vote for Joe Biden," Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, told Axios. Polls show most Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. That's aligned with Biden's position and is why abortion is one of Trump's biggest vulnerabilities. But polls also suggest abortion isn't among most Americans' top concerns: Gallup recently found that 36% say the economy is the country's most important problem, followed by "poor leadership" and immigration. Just 4% said abortion is America's most important problem. Polls in the six swing states suggest that protecting abortion rights is particularly significant to those voters — potentially a good sign for Biden. A poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer last month indicated that 11% of the voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin said abortion was the biggest issue in the election. That was nearly the same percentage who said they cared most about immigration. Arizona and Nevada — which Biden narrowly won in 2020 — are among the dozen states that will, or could have, questions on their Nov. 5 ballots about expanding or guaranteeing access to abortion. Such measures would give the president a chance to capitalize on voter enthusiasm surrounding abortion rights, particularly among women. 🤔 But those measures wouldn't necessarily be silver bullets for Biden. A recent CBS News poll said 65% of Arizona voters support the proposed measure there that would allow abortions up to the point of fetal viability — typically around 24 weeks of pregnancy. That hasn't translated to similar support for Biden, who trailed Trump by five points in that Arizona poll. About half the Arizona poll's respondents said abortion would be a "major factor" in their vote, but significantly more said the economy and inflation would be big factors. One plus for Biden: He's been ticking upward in overall swing state polls taken since Trump's felony conviction. Read more.

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🩺 Dem-leaning doctors step up

By Maya Goldman

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

🌊 The wave of state abortion restrictions that began after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade has led Democratic-leaning doctors to become an organizing and political force against such laws. Those doctors say many of the new laws jeopardize patients' health and restrict their own ability to practice medicine. Their push coincides with the erosion of the historical alliance between Republicans and the American Medical Association, which has staked out progressive stances on topics including trans care and gun violence. It's also reminiscent of how the 2010 Affordable Care Act sparked a wave of political activism among Republican-leaning doctors who were eager to push back on what they saw as an intrusive government. 🗳️ In Ohio, doctors have worked to pass a ballot measure that enshrined reproductive rights into the state's constitution. In Texas, they've battled in court over a narrow exception to the state's abortion ban. At least six Democratic doctors are running for competitive House seats this year, seizing on voters' concerns about reproductive health and high health care costs, Axios Pro's Victoria Knight reported. In Congress, it's often Republican doctors — who are larger in number and have their own caucus — driving conversations about how medicine is practiced. 🎤 The recent abortion debates also have prompted action by conservative doctors. Membership of the American Association of Pro-Life Obstetricians and Gynecologists has increased by more than 500 in the past two years, spokesperson Myriam Diallo said. Go deeper.

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💵 Poll: Economy trumps conviction

Chart: CBS News Just 28% of likely voters say former President Trump's conviction will be a major factor in their vote, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll out yesterday. The biggest factors are the economy and inflation. Why it matters: It's the latest sign that Trump's historic conviction earlier this month might not profoundly change the presidential election, Axios' Erin Doherty writes. Some polls have shown a slight move in former President Biden's direction. 🔎 Between the lines: Biden has struggled to turn positive economic metrics into political wins, and many voters say they trust Trump more to handle the economy. The CBS/YouGov poll found that more voters think they'll be financially better off if Trump wins (42%) than if Biden does (16%). 🐊 What's next: Former President Trump will hold a video conference interview from Mar-a-Lago today with a New York probation officer as part of the pre-sentencing process, NBC reported and Axios confirms. Mitch Landrieu — former Biden infrastructure czar, now national co-chair of his campaign — told Jen Psaki on MSNBC: "A guy that wants to be president of the United States first has to go sit down with his probation officer. That is just an astounding statement that sometimes people walk by."

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Election workers worry that federal threats task force isn’t enough to keep them safe

Aiming to send a message, the Biden administration recently spotlighted its indictments and convictions in cases involving threats to election officials or workers.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/12/election-workers-worry-that-federal-threats-task-force-isnt-enough-to-keep-them-safe/?

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Rise of single-issue pro-choice voters

Data: Gallup; Chart: Axios Visuals A record-high percentage of voters told Gallup that abortion is the issue that will determine their vote this election cycle. Nearly three-quarters of those single-issue voters are pro-choice, Axios' Jacob Knutson writes. Why it matters: Republicans in tough races know voter backlash on abortion could spell trouble in November. One of those Republicans is former President Trump, who lamented in a visit to Capitol Hill today that the issue had "cost" the GOP. Trump urged House Republicans to talk about abortion "correctly," Axios' Andrew Solender reports. He said the issue should be left to the states and that Republicans should support exceptions, rather than outright bans. Split screen: While Trump was speaking to lawmakers, the Supreme Court threw out its biggest abortion-related case since overturning Roe, saying that doctors opposed to a commonly used abortion pill, mifepristone, lacked legal standing. Use of the drug has increased since Roe was overturned, and today's high court action further complicates GOP efforts to restrict abortion access. What to watch: Democrats plan to keep up pressure over reproductive rights between now and November. Senate Democrats tried to force a vote today to ensure federal protections for in vitro fertilization, but Republicans blocked it. Despite opposing that vote, every Senate Republican signed a letter voicing support for IVF this week, arguing Democrats are lying about the GOP's position. State of play: A convention of Southern Baptists this week voted to oppose IVF, reflecting some grassroots momentum against the procedure. But 82% of Americans think IVF is morally acceptable, according to a Gallup poll.

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Will you be AWOL in the upcoming elections?

Not voting in the presidential primary and general election is tantamount to an act of dereliction of duty, even desertion when it comes to defending and protecting our democratic republic.

https://michiganadvance.com/2024/06/14/will-you-be-awol-in-the-upcoming-elections/?

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Dread election

Data: Pew Research Center. Table: Axios Visuals A quarter of Americans hold unfavorable views of both President Biden and former President Trump — the highest share of "double haters" at this stage in any of the last 10 elections, Axios' Zachary Basu writes from new Pew Research data. Why it matters: The closely watched bloc has nearly doubled in size since 2020, making this fall's Trump vs. Biden rematch the most dreaded election in modern political history. The big picture: Top strategists say the race is likely to be decided by 6% of voters in six swing states. Many of them will hold their nose and pick a candidate they dislike in November. Whichever candidate can mobilize more "double haters" to back them in November could have a decisive advantage in the Electoral College, given the razor-thin margins. 🔬 Zoom in: Trump has made inroads with Republican critics in recent weeks, using a visit to Capitol Hill — and a handshake with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — to showcase the GOP's post-primary unity. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose primary voters represent a huge cross-section of Trump-Biden skeptics, finally endorsed Trump last month. A steady drumbeat of wealthy GOP donors who condemned Trump after Jan. 6 are once again getting out their checkbooks, unable to stomach a second Biden term. 👀 Between the lines: 67% of "double haters" believe Trump should end his campaign in the wake of his felony conviction, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. The Biden campaign sees that and other polling data as evidence that the president will win over this critical bloc of voters by the time Nov. 5 arrives. "They may dislike both candidates. But the intensity on Trump's negative is higher," Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock told Axios. "A campaign that has the resources to persuade those individuals has some advantage." The bottom line: Between 1988 and 2012, at least one of the major party nominees had a favorability rating over 50%. Both Trump and Biden will be lucky to draw much higher than 40% by the time they're nominated this summer.

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Many voters in swing-state North Carolina are disengaged. Party activists hope to fire them up

OXFORD, N.C. (AP) — She opens the door wearing a gray tank top, Hello Kitty pajama pants and pink fuzzy slippers. With her 6-year-old son standing quietly beside her, she listens patiently as Liz Purvis begins discussing what’s at stake in the election this November.

https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-biden-trump-north-carolina-rural-f18e68135fa04a9d730a55c2fb5481a0?

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Roger Stone Caught on Tape Discussing Trump’s Plan to Challenge 2024 Election

Self-proclaimed “dirty trickster” Roger Stone was secretly videotaped at Mar-a-Lago during a remarkably candid conversation.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/roger-stone-caught-on-tape-discussing-trumps-plan-to-challenge-2024-election?

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Bookman: Trump allies work to undermine election safeguards that withstood 2020 pressure campaign

Last fall, James McWhorter was summoned to appear before the DeKalb County Board of Elections to save his precious right to vote.

https://georgiarecorder.com/2024/06/13/bookman-trump-allies-work-to-undermine-election-safeguards-that-withstood-2020-pressure-campaign/?

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Judge allows disabled voters in Wisconsin to electronically vote from home

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Local election officials in battleground state Wisconsin will be allowed to send absentee ballots to disabled voters electronically in November’s presidential election, a judge ruled Tuesday.

https://apnews.com/article/disabled-voters-wisconsin-absentee-ballots-lawsuit-ee2c1eefc0cb0d448b9972132b1a1a0b?

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Lawsuit says Pennsylvania county deliberately hid decisions to invalidate some mail-in ballots

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — A western Pennsylvania county’s elected commissioners were sued Monday over a policy adopted for this year’s primary in which people whose mail-in ballots were disqualified for technical violations say they were purposely not informed in time to fix errors.

https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-mail-ballots-invalidated-lawsuit-4db1318fc872bd9ebeb4797226146c24?

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Whether It’s Biden or Someone Else, Gaza Remains Top Priority for “Uncommitted” Voters

As Democrats nationwide pressure President Joe Biden to abandon his reelection bid, voters aligned with the “uncommitted” movement to protest his handling of the war in Gaza say they won’t get behind any nominee who doesn’t make a clear commitment to a permanent ceasefire.

https://theintercept.com/2024/07/03/biden-democratic-nominee-gaza-voters/?

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📊 Axios Vibes: Latino enthusiasm gap

Data: Axios/The Harris Poll. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals Latino Republicans say they're much more enthusiastic and likely to vote this year than Latino Democrats, Margaret Talev writes from a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll. Why it matters: Latino voters overall still align more closely with Democrats on character and policy issues. But if Latino Republicans turn out with more intensity, it could be decisive. The findings suggest an opportunity for former President Trump — and newly announced running mate J.D. Vance — to court more support by re-branding the GOP around upward mobility for Latinos. Keep reading ...

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The far-right fuss over voter rolls isn’t about election integrity. It’s an effort to suppress.

If you’re to believe the far right, our voter rolls face constant peril from the threat of ill-willed hackers, nefarious foreign conspirators and evil villains that make James Bond’s various nemeses look like Teletubbies. 

https://lailluminator.com/2024/07/15/voter-rolls/?

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Trump-friendly panel shapes Georgia’s election rules at long, often chaotic meetings

ATLANTA (AP) — The Georgia State Election Board, which once toiled in relative obscurity, now hosts raucous meetings where public comment spans several hours and attendees regularly heckle its members.

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-state-election-board-0141f8011dc9e7c054ed73f63dbf5f58?

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Battleground Arizona

Stacks of ballot drop box signs in storage at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images Ahead of its primary polls closing today, Arizona is back in the middle of the 2024 presidential race, with millions in new TV ads arriving in the coming days. The Trump campaign is deploying nearly $2 million in paid media spending in the state, Axios Phoenix co-author Jessica Boehm reports. The Harris campaign is also launching a paid media effort, and more than 2,000 new volunteers have signed up in the state since the start of Harris' presidential run. Zoom out: The campaigns have each launched major ad buys, Axios' Erin Doherty reports. The Trump campaign is targeting Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Michigan with a $12 million swing state buy. The Harris campaign's $50 million paid media drive includes targeting viewers of the Olympics and "The Bachelorette."

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Jimmy Carter’s family says former president is hanging on to vote for Harris

Despite appearing frail during wife Rosalynn's memorial service last November, former President Jimmy Carter is determined to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris this year.

https://local.newsbreak.com/atlanta-ga/3549618684951-jimmy-carters-family-says-former-president-is-hanging-on-to-vote-for-harris?

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D.C.'s big elections decision

Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

A new ballot initiative this November will decide whether to open up D.C.'s primaries to independent voters and institute ranked-choice voting. Why it matters: Initiative 83 would bring a sea change to the electoral process, and it's facing fierce opposition from the city's Democratic establishment. 🗳️ How it works: If approved, D.C. voters deciding on a race will be allowed to rank up to five candidates in the order of their preference. That ensures one candidate will gain at least 50% of electoral support. D.C. primary elections will also be partially opened up, allowing voters who aren't registered members of a political party to cast ballots in the often-decisive Democratic primary. There are about 75,000 registered "no party" voters. Catch up quick: The D.C. Board of Elections last Friday gave the green light to place the initiative on the November ballot after the I-83 campaign turned in over 40,000 signatures to qualify. 📣 What they're saying: Supporters say the process will eliminate vote splitting and require candidates to appeal to a broader coalition to gain at least 50% of support. "Politicians would work harder for every vote," says the group leading the I-83 campaign known as Make All Votes Count DC. The other side: Opponents of ranked-choice voting — in effect in New York City and Arlington, Va., — often have argued that introducing a novel voting method will confuse the electorate. The D.C. Democratic Party filed a lawsuit, pending in the appeals court, to block the initiative. Party chair Charles Wilson tells Axios that the initiative should not move forward because ballot initiatives that compel the D.C. Council to enact new spending on a program are not permitted. Between the lines: If it passes, the D.C. Council could stymie the initiative by overturning it.

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“A Terrible Vulnerability”: Cybersecurity Researcher Discovers Yet Another Flaw in Georgia’s Voter Cancellation Portal

Until Monday, a new online portal run by the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office contained what experts describe as a serious security vulnerability that would have allowed anyone to submit a voter cancellation request for any Georgian. All that was required was a name, date of birth and county of residence — information easily discoverable for many people online.

https://www.propublica.org/article/cybersecurity-expert-finds-another-flaw-in-georgia-voter-portal?

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s and Brad Raffensperger’s Voter Registrations Targeted in Georgia’s New Online Portal

On Friday, four days after Georgia Democrats began warning that bad actors could abuse the state’s new online portal for canceling voter registrations, the Secretary of State’s Office acknowledged to ProPublica that it had identified multiple such attempts — including unsuccessful efforts to cancel the registrations of two prominent Republicans, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

https://www.propublica.org/article/georgia-voter-registration-cancellation-portal-mtg-raffensperger?

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🗳️ Boys vs. girls election intensifies

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Gender is rapidly becoming one of the starkest divisions in American politics, Axios' Erica Pandey writes. Why it matters: Young men and women used to have similar voting habits. But over the last two decades, women have been moving steadily left and men, right. That's making it an easy strategy for each side to pick a gender to court. "The Democrats try to win as the women's party, and the Republicans try to win as the men's party," says Richard V. Reeves, founding president of the new research group American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM). During a news conference last week, Trump said he's "way up" with white males, but "it could be that I'll be affected somewhat with Black females." Trump is appearing on podcasts popular among young men, and did a two-hour interview with Elon Musk on X this week. Harris' campaign is leaning into memes that appeal to young women. Keep reading.