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Voting, Voting Rights, Voter Challenges & Elections


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'24 court war begins
an lilustration of a voting booth with a large shadow of a gavel over it
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Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios

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Five months before Election Day, the legal battle over the 2024 race is already raging โ€” with clear signs Trump plans to once again cry "rigged" if he loses, Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson write.

  • Why it matters: It's the GOP's "election integrity" vs. Democrats' "voter protection."

๐Ÿ˜ Former President Trump's team is so far more focused on building a sprawling network of "election integrity" lawyers and poll watchers than rounding up organizers and door knockers to reach voters.

  • The Trump-controlled RNC is assembling a network of lawyers and volunteers to gather string for lawsuits challenging the results of the Nov. 5 vote.

๐Ÿ”ฌ Zoom in: The RNC, along with state Republican parties and groups, including Stephen Miller's America First Legal, already have filed dozens of election-related lawsuits in 25 states.

  • Several of the lawsuits seek to prevent states from counting mail-in ballots missing a date or received after Election Day.
  • Others are challenging whether states have maintained accurate voter registration lists, prevented noncitizens from voting and tightened voter ID rules.

The other side: Democrats are responding to the onslaught of GOP lawsuits with their own legal challenges. Some are spearheaded by the DNC and election lawyer Marc Elias' firm, which is operating independently from the Biden campaign.

  • "The DNC has built a robust voter-protection operation, investing tens of millions of dollars to protect against MAGA Republicans' assault on our voting rights," DNC spokesperson Alex Floyd told Axios.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Kansas Constitution does not include a right to vote, state Supreme Court majority says

The Kansas Supreme Court offered a mixed bag in a ruling Friday that combined several challenges to a 2021 election law, siding with state officials on one provision, reviving challenges to others and offering the possibility that at least one will be halted before this yearโ€™s general election.

https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-kansas-supreme-court-0a0b5eea5c57cf54a9597d8a6f8a300e?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Cooling on Biden
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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

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The Sunrise Movement, a national organization of young progressives that helped President Biden shape his 2020 climate agenda, is withholding its endorsement of him in 2024, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.

Why it matters: Young voters were central to Biden's winning coalition in 2020 and recent polls have shown their support for the president slipping.

Go deeper.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ Biden's swing state test on abortion
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Map of states where abortion is or might be on the ballot in 2024. Abortion will be on the ballot in Florida, Maryland, South Dakota,  and  New York and may be on the ballot in eight other states.
Data: Axios research; Chart: Axios Visuals

๐Ÿ‘€ Democrats hope the backlash to the recent blitz of state abortion restrictions will continue to give them a boost in November. But the bigger question is how much it will help President Biden in the battleground states likely to decide the election.

  • โš–๏ธ Since the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have won midterm and state elections when abortion was on the ballot.
  • The potency of the issue will now be tested in a presidential election, in which many voters appear more focused on the economy and immigration.
  • "The challenge for the Biden campaign is that even though you've had large support for abortion rights on the ballot ... that doesn't necessarily mean those same voters are going to be willing to vote for Joe Biden," Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, told Axios.
  • Polls show most Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. That's aligned with Biden's position and is why abortion is one of Trump's biggest vulnerabilities.
  • But polls also suggest abortion isn't among most Americans' top concerns: Gallup recently found that 36% say the economy is the country's most important problem, followed by "poor leadership" and immigration.
  • Just 4% said abortion is America's most important problem.

Polls in the six swing states suggest that protecting abortion rights is particularly significant to those voters โ€” potentially a good sign for Biden.

  • A poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer last month indicated that 11% of the voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin said abortion was the biggest issue in the election.
  • That was nearly the same percentage who said they cared most about immigration.

Arizona and Nevada โ€” which Biden narrowly won in 2020 โ€” are among the dozen states that will, or could have, questions on their Nov. 5 ballots about expanding or guaranteeing access to abortion.

  • Such measures would give the president a chance to capitalize on voter enthusiasm surrounding abortion rights, particularly among women.

๐Ÿค” But those measures wouldn't necessarily be silver bullets for Biden.

  • A recent CBS News poll said 65% of Arizona voters support the proposed measure there that would allow abortions up to the point of fetal viability โ€” typically around 24 weeks of pregnancy.
  • That hasn't translated to similar support for Biden, who trailed Trump by five points in that Arizona poll.
  • About half the Arizona poll's respondents said abortion would be a "major factor" in their vote, but significantly more said the economy and inflation would be big factors.

One plus for Biden: He's been ticking upward in overall swing state polls taken since Trump's felony conviction.

Read more.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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๐Ÿฉบ Dem-leaning doctors step up
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Illustration of a doctor with abstract shapes and textures.
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Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

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๐ŸŒŠ The wave of state abortion restrictions that began after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade has led Democratic-leaning doctors to become an organizing and political force against such laws.

Those doctors say many of the new laws jeopardize patients' health and restrict their own ability to practice medicine.

  • Their push coincides with the erosion of the historical alliance between Republicans and the American Medical Association, which has staked out progressive stances on topics including trans care and gun violence.
  • It's also reminiscent of how the 2010 Affordable Care Act sparked a wave of political activism among Republican-leaning doctors who were eager to push back on what they saw as an intrusive government.

๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ In Ohio, doctors have worked to pass a ballot measure that enshrined reproductive rights into the state's constitution. In Texas, they've battled in court over a narrow exception to the state's abortion ban.

  • At least six Democratic doctors are running for competitive House seats this year, seizing on voters' concerns about reproductive health and high health care costs, Axios Pro's Victoria Knight reported.

In Congress, it's often Republican doctors โ€” who are larger in number and have their own caucus โ€” driving conversations about how medicine is practiced.

  • ๐ŸŽค The recent abortion debates also have prompted action by conservative doctors.
  • Membership of the American Association of Pro-Life Obstetricians and Gynecologists has increased by more than 500 in the past two years, spokesperson Myriam Diallo said.

Go deeper.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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๐Ÿ’ต Poll: Economy trumps conviction
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Chart: CBS News

Just 28% of likely voters say former President Trump's conviction will be a major factor in their vote, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll out yesterday.

  • The biggest factors are the economy and inflation.

Why it matters: It's the latest sign that Trump's historic conviction earlier this month might not profoundly change the presidential election, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

  • Some polls have shown a slight move in former President Biden's direction.

๐Ÿ”Ž Between the lines: Biden has struggled to turn positive economic metrics into political wins, and many voters say they trust Trump more to handle the economy.

  • The CBS/YouGov poll found that more voters think they'll be financially better off if Trump wins (42%) than if Biden does (16%).

๐ŸŠ What's next: Former President Trump will hold a video conference interview from Mar-a-Lago today with a New York probation officer as part of the pre-sentencing process, NBC reported and Axios confirms.

  • Mitch Landrieu โ€” former Biden infrastructure czar, now national co-chair of his campaign โ€” told Jen Psaki on MSNBC: "A guy that wants to be president of the United States first has to go sit down with his probation officer. That is just an astounding statement that sometimes people walk by."

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Election workers worry that federal threats task force isnโ€™t enough to keep them safe

Aiming to send a message, the Biden administration recently spotlighted its indictments and convictions in cases involving threats to election officials or workers.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/12/election-workers-worry-that-federal-threats-task-force-isnt-enough-to-keep-them-safe/?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Rise of single-issue pro-choice voters
The line chart shows the percentage of single-issue voters in the U.S. who identify as pro-choice or pro-life from 1996 to 2024. The data indicates a rise in pro-choice voters over time, peaking at 23% in 2024, while pro-life voters remained relatively steady, fluctuating between 8% and 13%.
Data: Gallup; Chart: Axios Visuals

A record-high percentage of voters told Gallup that abortion is the issue that will determine their vote this election cycle. Nearly three-quarters of those single-issue voters are pro-choice, Axios' Jacob Knutson writes.

Why it matters: Republicans in tough races know voter backlash on abortion could spell trouble in November.

  • One of those Republicans is former President Trump, who lamented in a visit to Capitol Hill today that the issue had "cost" the GOP.
  • Trump urged House Republicans to talk about abortion "correctly," Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
  • He said the issue should be left to the states and that Republicans should support exceptions, rather than outright bans.

Split screen: While Trump was speaking to lawmakers, the Supreme Court threw out its biggest abortion-related case since overturning Roe, saying that doctors opposed to a commonly used abortion pill, mifepristone, lacked legal standing.

  • Use of the drug has increased since Roe was overturned, and today's high court action further complicates GOP efforts to restrict abortion access.

What to watch: Democrats plan to keep up pressure over reproductive rights between now and November.

  • Senate Democrats tried to force a vote today to ensure federal protections for in vitro fertilization, but Republicans blocked it.
  • Despite opposing that vote, every Senate Republican signed a letter voicing support for IVF this week, arguing Democrats are lying about the GOP's position.

State of play: A convention of Southern Baptists this week voted to oppose IVF, reflecting some grassroots momentum against the procedure.

  • But 82% of Americans think IVF is morally acceptable, according to a Gallup poll.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Will you be AWOL in the upcoming elections?

Not voting in the presidential primary and general election is tantamount to an act of dereliction of duty, even desertion when it comes to defending and protecting our democratic republic.

https://michiganadvance.com/2024/06/14/will-you-be-awol-in-the-upcoming-elections/?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Dread election
The table shows the views of major party candidates in May/June of each presidential election year from 1988 to 2024. In 2024, 25% of Americans have unfavorable views of both major party candidates, which is nearly twice as much who said they did in 2020.
Data: Pew Research Center. Table: Axios Visuals

A quarter of Americans hold unfavorable views of both President Biden and former President Trump โ€” the highest share of "double haters" at this stage in any of the last 10 elections, Axios' Zachary Basu writes from new Pew Research data.

  • Why it matters: The closely watched bloc has nearly doubled in size since 2020, making this fall's Trump vs. Biden rematch the most dreaded election in modern political history.

The big picture: Top strategists say the race is likely to be decided by 6% of voters in six swing states. Many of them will hold their nose and pick a candidate they dislike in November.

  • Whichever candidate can mobilize more "double haters" to back them in November could have a decisive advantage in the Electoral College, given the razor-thin margins.

๐Ÿ”ฌ Zoom in: Trump has made inroads with Republican critics in recent weeks, using a visit to Capitol Hill โ€” and a handshake with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell โ€” to showcase the GOP's post-primary unity.

  • Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose primary voters represent a huge cross-section of Trump-Biden skeptics, finally endorsed Trump last month.
  • A steady drumbeat of wealthy GOP donors who condemned Trump after Jan. 6 are once again getting out their checkbooks, unable to stomach a second Biden term.

๐Ÿ‘€ Between the lines: 67% of "double haters" believe Trump should end his campaign in the wake of his felony conviction, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll.

  • The Biden campaign sees that and other polling data as evidence that the president will win over this critical bloc of voters by the time Nov. 5 arrives.
  • "They may dislike both candidates. But the intensity on Trump's negative is higher," Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock told Axios. "A campaign that has the resources to persuade those individuals has some advantage."

The bottom line: Between 1988 and 2012, at least one of the major party nominees had a favorability rating over 50%. Both Trump and Biden will be lucky to draw much higher than 40% by the time they're nominated this summer.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Many voters in swing-state North Carolina are disengaged. Party activists hope to fire them up

OXFORD, N.C. (AP) โ€” She opens the door wearing a gray tank top, Hello Kitty pajama pants and pink fuzzy slippers. With her 6-year-old son standing quietly beside her, she listens patiently as Liz Purvis begins discussing whatโ€™s at stake in the election this November.

https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-biden-trump-north-carolina-rural-f18e68135fa04a9d730a55c2fb5481a0?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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