Poll of the week:

[phkrause]

Manchin's approval deficit

Justice holds a commanding lead over Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia's pivotal Senate race, according to a new survey from East Carolina University.

By the numbers: Justice leads Manchin by a whopping 22 points, 54%-32%. Manchin's job approval has sunk to 33%, with 59% of West Virginians disapproving.

• Justice also has a sizable advantage in his GOP primary battle against Mooney, leading the conservative congressman, 53%-12%.
• Manchin, who hasn't committed to running for a third term, still has a pathway to victory if he faces Mooney. The survey found Mooney leading Manchin by just 1 point (41%-40%) in a hypothetical matchup.

One big warning sign for Manchin: Only half of West Virginia Democrats — a relatively conservative bunch — approve of his performance. His approval among independents sits at 37%.

• Justice's approval rating is a healthy 57%, with 29% of West Virginians disapproving of his record as governor.
• Biden's approval in the solidly Republican state is a dismal 26%, with 68% disapproving.

Between the lines: Manchin secured a major victory in the bipartisan debt ceiling deal, which expedites approval of the stalled Mountain Valley pipeline.

• Manchin's approval rating started sinking last year when he backed the Inflation Reduction Act, which focused on championing clean energy at the expense of fossil fuel production — a major jobs issue in West Virginia.
• Manchin will tout the pipeline project if he runs for re-election, but that alone could be tough to turn around his flagging support back home.