Neil D Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Bravus.... I know that this is gonna put you on the spotlight, and I am sorry...I skimmed this article....and I am a bit ...well confused...I am confused as it sounds reputable....but I have been ..um...decieved before... So, I come to you with questions.... First, how accurate is this article? 2nd, does this article show conflicting technicalities by using similar sounding phrases that mean differing distict concepts? 3rd- are we looking at an anomaly? 4th- Is the source of this information reliable? I am not familiar with british sources as well as American.... And here's the subject Global cooling: Arctic ice cap as it grows 60% in a year Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobRyan Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Bravus.... I know that this is gonna put you on the spotlight, and I am sorry...I skimmed this article....and I am a bit ...well confused...I am confused as it sounds reputable....but I have been ..um...decieved before... So, I come to you with questions.... First, how accurate is this article? 2nd, does this article show conflicting technicalities by using similar sounding phrases that mean differing distict concepts? 3rd- are we looking at an anomaly? 4th- Is the source of this information reliable? I am not familiar with british sources as well as American.... And here's the subject Global cooling: Arctic ice cap as it grows 60% in a year Wow! If this effect of global warming gets any worse - All of Canada will be covered over in ice-age style ice shelfs by summer 2015!! Maybe if we all stopped driving cars this will finally stop! Quote John 8:32 - The Truth will make you free“The righteousness of Christ will not cover one cherished sin." COL 316. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 Wow! If this effect of global warming gets any worse - All of Canada will be covered over in ice-age style ice shelfs by summer 2015!! That picture of new ice don't look too thick...and my experience of cooling things, it tain't gonna do much in the cooling sector if there isn't more substance to the thickness of the ice compared to the warming in the globe....it's the ol' "here's an ice cube. That should cool off an Olympic sized pool" syndrome/thinking.. Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobRyan Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Originally Posted By: BobRyan Wow! If this effect of global warming gets any worse - All of Canada will be covered over in ice-age style ice shelfs by summer 2015!! That picture of new ice don't look too thick...and my experience of cooling things, it tain't gonna do much in the cooling sector if there isn't more substance to the thickness of the ice compared to the warming in the globe....it's the ol' "here's an ice cube. That should cool off an Olympic sized pool" syndrome/thinking.. On million square mile ice cubes do not form randomly. Usually there is some cold weather to go with it. (If the ice age is any indicator) Quote John 8:32 - The Truth will make you free“The righteousness of Christ will not cover one cherished sin." COL 316. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 On million square mile ice cubes do not form randomly. Usually there is some cold weather to go with it. (If the ice age is any indicator) What?!?!?! You are gonna compare 1 million square miles to 63.78 million square miles of JUST the pacific ocean....??? Would you like to get real, and ALSO compare 41 million square miles of the Alantic, the 28.4 of Indian and 7.9 million of the southern and the 5.4 of the Artic oceans... That's 145.48 million square miles of ocean that is being warmed compared to your 1 million square miles [yes, I deducted your ONE million from my One HUNDRED forty six million]..... As I said, I doubt that your one cold ice cube in an equivelant volume of variable warming waters would have much dent in the overall temperature of the whole thing.... Earth's Oceans Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobRyan Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Your link says Quote: The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013. Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...l#ixzz2eKPQPNfV Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook It says that NASA satellite evidence indicates that the ice grew by 60% or 920,000 square miles from August 2012 to August 2013. August 2012 August 2013 Originally Posted By: BobRyan On million square mile ice cubes do not form randomly. Usually there is some cold weather to go with it. (If the ice age is any indicator) What?!?!?! You are gonna compare 1 million square miles to 63.78 million square miles of JUST the pacific ocean....??? Would you like to get real, and ALSO compare 41 million square miles of the Alantic, the 28.4 of Indian and 7.9 million of the southern and the 5.4 of the Artic oceans... Is it your claim that we should only "notice the cooling" after all the oceans on the planet freeze over? really?? Quote John 8:32 - The Truth will make you free“The righteousness of Christ will not cover one cherished sin." COL 316. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 8, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2013 Thanks for the question, Neil. The extent of the ice coverage is indeed greater this year than last year - though not by 60%. More info here: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Comparing only against last year is not honest, because last year was the lowest extent ever. There are always going to be short-term fluctuations from year to year - it is longer term trends that are important. You've already addressed one of the other issues: extent is not the same thing as volume. A thin layer of annual ice is a different thing from a thick layer of permanent ice. Figures 2 and particularly 3 on the page I linked tell the true story. Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 Is it your claim that we should only "notice the cooling" after all the oceans on the planet freeze over??really?? Look, if you want to play the game of putting words in people's mouths, go start your own thread. If you look carefully at the pictures, you will note that the 2012 snows are lower on the hemisphere than the 2013 [if you WANT to be honest]...but yet the 2013 pictures are shown to have bigger ice flows... I am sure that there is an ice flow, but the question is how deep is it? Six inches can also be 15 feet thick by this photograph. *WE* don't KNOW. What we do know is that if the ice flows are readily melted, then thier capacity of cooling the planet is compromised. It does depend upon how thick that ice is... It has been shown and postulated that *IF* there were a *GLOBAL* warming trend, then there could be varying degrees of cooling in a variety of places that would appear to contradict the evidence of a GLOBAL warming trend...And you JUST posted pictures that showed that.... Now, Bob, if you would be so kind as to let Bravus and the rest of us [who are curious] to examine this link, who knows? MAYBE, even YOU, might learn something....But then again, those who know all and see all and can decipher all theories don't need such human powers because they know it all anyways... Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 8, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2013 This is the one. I don't think the planet's oceans are in any danger of freezing. This year is a small upward bump on a big downward trend: and this graph shows exactly why comparing just this year and last year is not honest. Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 8, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2013 Compare this year to *any year at all* prior to about 2003, for example. Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 8, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2013 Note that the graph does not start at 0 million square km. The difference between August 2012 and August 2013 is about 1.5 million square km. Even on the kindest interpretation, comparing it to the smaller figure, that's 1.5 million compared to 4.2 million, or about 36%. Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 I didn't find the definitions to the following terms...perhaps you could help- August 2013 ice extent was 2.38 million square kilometers (919,000 square miles) above the record low August extent in 2012. The monthly trend is –10.6% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. What is "Ice extent"? Not sure of the term and I don't speak fluent "scientist"...Like spanish, and italian, there are similarities...{I do speak medical quite well, and have delved into some bio-chemestry terms]... It may seem contradictory for a polynya-like opening to form near the pole while temperatures are lower than average, but it highlights the complex interplay between the ice, atmosphere, and ocean "polynya-like opening"?? have no clue as to what this opening is like.....help? Oh, and Bob, apparently, this ol' bird caught a glimpse of the ramifications of the observed experienments [aka "science"] taking place in those cold regions...thin ice...and this is what THEY SAID- Both processes likely played a role in forming the current opening, but another key factor is a significant amount of thin, first-year ice in the region. This thin ice was more likely to melt completely than surrounding thicker ice. What does that mean for you? It means that you ain't paying attention, Dude.... Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 This is the one. I don't think the planet's oceans are in any danger of freezing. This year is a small upward bump on a big downward trend: and this graph shows exactly why comparing just this year and last year is not honest. I saw that and thought that Bob would have a exaultant hissy-feria *IF* we repeated the results next year and was able to obtain not only first year ice, but another layer of refrozen ice on top[bottom??]...This would result in a easing of the downward trend....but since is is not conclusive as yet, how does this play into the over all global warming concept? Does this outliar [sp?] fall withing parameters of the over all global warming concept? Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 8, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2013 Yep. It's *exactly* what we would expect. To paraphrase William Gibson: "global warming is here, it's just not evenly distributed". And it's never going to be - some places will be warmer (Australia just recorded the warmest winter on record), some will be cooler. It's the *global* (hence the name) average that matters - and the trends (which is why we talk about 'climate' rather than 'weather'). It would be a brave (or foolish) person indeed who assumed, on the basis of that one data point, that the trend of the past 30 years has changed, rather than seeing it as just another bump like the ones in 2009 and 1995. Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 11, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/c...a-ice-delusions Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 So, the evidence is in.... While Global warming is happening over the whole planet, most areas are showing evidence of change [read that as 'warming'], and there is even cooling evidence in some area. The evidence that there is a 60% regrowth of the polar ice cap is a misnomer at best, and likely skewing the interpretation of facts..... 1] yes, there is a larger ice cap this year than last 2] It is NOT thicker and likely will make a negligable impact upon the total picture 3] our planet is warming 4] in a few hundred years, our planet may be like mars...evidence of water but not on the service..... Ok, those last two are mine, but it is a logical conclusion... ..............and no one cared but continued on thier way to destruction..... Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olger Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Thinner ice melts away sooner come the next summer, which means reduced albedo in that year. Nonetheless, this extent of Arctic sea ice was thoroughly unexpected based on the models, which is why clear back in 2007 scientists quoted in the article said by 2013 there'd be no sea ice in the Arctic summer. It's also the case, by the way, that the greater-than-expected extent of Arctic sea ice now means greater albedo now than otherwise expected, which means less warming than expected, which could mean a cooler Arctic summer next year than expected, which would mean less melt, which would mean the recovery (to some extent) of the previous thickness. In short: It's way, way, way too soon to know where this is trending--if we'll ever be capable of doing that. (The very fact that Arctic sea ice is part of a chaotic non-linear system makes it inherently unpredictable.) Quote "Please don't feed the drama queens.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olger Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Quote "Please don't feed the drama queens.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olger Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Quote "Please don't feed the drama queens.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil D Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 Ok, I don't understand and I admit it...But one way to remove ignorance is to ask questions.... .....So, Olger,....these graphs tell us........what? ..... and why is this important, Olger? Quote Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. George Bernard Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olger Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 They reveal that all climate models were far too optimistic in their anticipation of AGW. All of them. The second chart reveals a nearly static continental temperature reality over the period, again in contrast to all of the models. The overly optimistic models indicate to me a herd mentality united in error. Rejoice always, G Quote "Please don't feed the drama queens.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 12, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 12, 2013 Pessimistic, surely? Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 12, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 12, 2013 Can you link the source for those, olger? They look interesting but quite dodgy for a number of reasons, but it's harder to look them up and check assumptions with just the graphics. For example, the bottom line on the first one claims to be an actual temperature data record, but is a dead straight line. Ever seen that in nature before? Ever? Just doesn't happen - there is always variation about the mean. Which makes me think the data are very dodgy or made up. The second one takes the projections out to 2020 although the weather data are (obviously) only available until 2013. The divergence is far smaller at 2013, and there is no guarantee the temperature will remain relatively flat beyond this year - and good reasons to think it won't. And, finally, it's cherry-picking: these are not *global climate* data. They are one very specific set, chosen for a particular rhetorical purpose. Read over that analysis in the Guardian of the Mail on Sunday article in the OP. That's what ends up happening to *all* these denialist claims: they are demonstrated to be inaccurate at best, dishonest at worst. Anyway, would be grateful for the link so I can see these graphs in context. Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olger Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Sure Bravus, I was gonna say Dr. John Cristy, but I think it is Dr. Roy Spencer. Both are heavyweight scholars on this particular issue. Quote "Please don't feed the drama queens.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Bravus Posted September 13, 2013 Moderators Share Posted September 13, 2013 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/epic...ic-temperature/ http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/stil...g-5-year-means/ You were right both times: John Christy made them, Roy Spencer posted them. And now, some rebuttals: http://davidappell.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/speaking-of-epic-fails.html http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/06/how-much-out-of-whack-is-uah.html Quote Truth is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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