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May 23, 2023

 

With Ron DeSantis set to declare his candidacy this week, I asked my colleague Astead Herndon, who has been covering the campaign for “The Run-Up,” the Times politics podcast, to break down the state of the Republican primary race in today’s newsletter. — David Leonhardt

 
 

Good morning. The challenges that Ron DeSantis faces in any presidential run go beyond Donald Trump.

 
 
 
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Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in New Hampshire on Friday.Sophie Park for The New York Times

A new narrative

The political fortunes of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have reversed over the past six months. After his re-election as Florida’s governor, DeSantis looked like a strong potential presidential candidate while Trump grappled with legal and personal challenges. Now, Trump leads in opinion polling, DeSantis has struggled to solidify his star status and, in some corners, there’s a growing sense that Trump’s nomination for president is inevitable.

I would caution against that feeling, no matter how it looks for Trump at the moment. After months of reporting on the early stages of the 2024 presidential race, I’ve seen how narratives can miss important factors shaping the race. And that is how conventional wisdom starts to take shape in a way that’s divorced from evidence or data. (See: expectations of a Republican wave in last year’s midterm elections.)

DeSantis is expected to formally enter the race as soon as tomorrow. Here are two narratives about his candidacy that could use revising.

Narrative 1: DeSantis is toast.

Reality: There is an opening for a Trump alternative, whether it’s DeSantis or someone else.

Trump’s hold on the Republican electorate has always been tenuous. He has never won the majority of voters in a contested Republican primary. At the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting in California this year, one delegate told me that party insiders estimated that about 30 to 35 percent of Republican voters were unshakably with Trump, while another, smaller group was comfortable with him as the nominee while considering other options.

For other candidates, those numbers make up a road map to victory: Consolidate the majority of Republicans who would prefer a different nominee. This group includes factions like the Tea Party conservatives who backed Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in the 2016 primary and the business-focused moderates who backed candidates like Gov. John Kasich of Ohio in 2016.

Appealing to them is a difficult task. These groups have historically opposed Trump for different reasons and no candidate has successfully brought them together, but the conditions for an anti-Trump coalition are there.

One route for a candidate like DeSantis or Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who joined the Republican field yesterday, is to win the nomination without crossing Trump. As my colleague Nate Cohn wrote, one strategy for defeating Trump could be to embody his political message without taking him on directly. For some Republicans, this is a welcome direction. My reporting made clear that given the criminal investigations Trump faces, some rivals have banked on him to implode on his own.

However, that strategy is passive, which could play into Trump’s hands. Outside the Manhattan courthouse on the day that Trump was arraigned on fraud charges related to his 2016 campaign, the conservative media provocateur Jack Posobiec said that people close to Trump’s campaign predicted that more indictments would embolden his candidacy, not imperil it. He said they believed Trump would have the opportunity to galvanize voters by painting law enforcement as politically motivated and out to stifle his candidacy.

Posobiec pointed to the news media attention, increased fund-raising and the bump in polling that Trump secured after his indictment.

Narrative 2: DeSantis’s biggest problem is Donald Trump.

Reality: Yes, but he has another problem to confront first.

DeSantis no longer scares away candidates who were once deferential to his status as the front-runner in the Trump-alternative sweepstakes. Last week, several Republican governors made notable moves: Doug Burgum of North Dakota — a former Microsoft executive — made overtures toward joining the 2024 field, and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia released an advertisement linking himself to Ronald Reagan. Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire also said he was thinking about joining the race, days after a report that former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey might join as well.

Those actions show a party unintimidated by DeSantis’s candidacy and are further evidence that his campaign’s first task is not to overtake Trump, but to persuade primary voters and opponents that he is the strongest rival to Trump. At the R.N.C. meeting, a Trump adviser told me that his campaign would love for the field to get to 10 candidates. “More is better for us,” the adviser said, invoking the logic that several candidates polling in single digits would hurt DeSantis’s ability to put together a coalition.

DeSantis’s delicate task was on display two months ago, when he announced an isolationist view on the war in Ukraine, a clear play for Trump’s supporters. DeSantis’s statement drew backlash from commentators and Republican donors, and two other presidential hopefuls — former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and former Vice President Mike Pence — used it to attack him.

Such is the danger of DeSantis’s unique electoral position: As he enters the race as the established Trump alternative, he incurs the ire of other rivals seeking to elevate themselves.

When DeSantis announces his candidacy this week, he will be an underdog, but he is not a long shot. No one who has raised more than $110 million is.

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Drone footage of the destruction in Bakhmut.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
 
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The Colorado River.Erin Schaff/The New York Times
 
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Opinions

Christian nationalists are trying to hijack Wyoming’s identity, Susan Stubson writes.

The Supreme Court’s legitimacy partly relies on public opinion, so public criticism is a meaningful check on the institution, Stephen Vladeck writes.

Here are columns by David Brooks on the theologian Tim Keller, Michelle Goldberg on medically necessary abortions and Paul Krugman on working from home.

 
 

For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of New York Times Games. Enjoy the full games experience — Spelling Bee, Wordle, The Crossword and more.

 

MORNING READS

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UWC Atlantic College, popular with Gen Z royalty.Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Princess school: European royalty go to a Welsh castle to learn about world peace.

Good night, sweet prince: A.O. Scott explains why Martin Amis deserves a prominent place in the literary canon.

Exoneration: He freed an innocent man from prison. It ruined his life.

Andrew Tate: The self-crowned “king of toxic masculinity” thought he would be above the law in Romania. Then he was arrested.

Laxatives: Are there any natural ways to get things moving? Experts weigh in.

Advice from Wirecutter: Pack better with compression sacks.

Lives Lived: C. Boyden Gray was White House counsel under President George H.W. Bush and was said to be able to stroll into the Oval Office whenever he liked. He died at 80.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Carmelo Anthony retires: He announced his N.B.A. exit after 19 seasons. One of the best scorers ever, he had a limited role recently.

N.B.A. playoffs: The Denver Nuggets are headed to the N.B.A. finals for the first time after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers.

Real Madrid: Four people were arrested in Madrid after an effigy of Vinicius Jr., the Real Madrid superstar, was hung from bridge. Racist chants could push him to leave the club.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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The Venice Architecture Biennale.Matteo de Mayda for The New York Times

Africa and the future

This year’s edition of the Venice Architecture Biennale, the global architecture exhibition, takes on fraught subjects — race, colonialism, climate change — through the lens of Africa and its diaspora. The result is the most ambitious and pointedly political Biennale in years, the critic Christopher Hawthorne writes in The Times.

More: At the U.S. pavilion, architects consider how to coexist with plastic.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Julia Gartland for The New York Times.

Try these cold noodles with tomatoes as the days get hotter.

 
Cannes Film Festival

Martin Scorsese screened his new movie, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” featuring Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio.

 
Art

Painting and drawing can improve your mental health.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were hotline and neolith. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter included the incorrect puzzle for the day’s Spelling Bee.

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor
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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Good morning. We’re covering the anniversary of the Uvalde shooting, social media risks and a renters’ utopia.

 
 
 
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Uvalde, Texas.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Visualizing grief

The United States experiences so many mass shootings that journalists do not usually linger long after the attacks. Reporters and photographers move on to other stories, while the families and friends of the victims continue to grieve.

One year ago today, a gunman killed 19 children and two teachers at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. Tamir Kalifa, an independent photojournalist based in Austin, traveled to Uvalde shortly after the shootings — but he kept coming back. Tamir temporarily moved to Uvalde to live alongside the victims’ families, renting a 320-square-foot shipping container converted into a home.

We’re devoting today’s newsletter to some of the photographs Tamir has taken over the past year and to excerpts from his interviews with families.

“The grieving cycles do not match the media cycles,” Tamir told us. “We move on, but families don’t.”

Marking the holidays

Xavier “X.J.” Lopez, 10, loved Christmas. He loved going to Uvalde’s annual extravaganza, an event with light displays, decorations and holiday music. So this past Christmas — their first without XJ — his parents, Abel Lopez and Felicha Martinez, and his siblings went to honor him.

The soundtrack of a children’s choir played as they walked through the event. Then, they heard a loud blast that sounded like gunfire — an overloaded transformer had burst. Felicha had a panic attack and collapsed on the grass.

“These days are supposed to be happy,” she said later that evening. “But they are just reminders that our lives are torn apart.”

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Felicha Martinez having a panic attack.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Swimming

The weekend before Tess Mata, 10, died, she told her older sister Faith that she wanted to learn how to swim. Faith was about to begin her senior year at Texas State University, where students jump into a river on campus as a graduation tradition. Tess wanted to take part with her big sister.

On her graduation day this month, Faith walked with her family to the river. Then she jumped in, clutching a photo of Tess. The photo was a sweet symbol — but also a painful reminder.

“Tess looks exactly like Faith,” Veronica Mata, their mother, said. “So the other day she came and she told me, she’s like, ‘I’m so sorry that you have to look at me every day and think of Tess.’”

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Faith MataTamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Visiting their graves

The cemetery where most of the victims are buried has become an anchor in the lives of their families and friends. They have gathered together for graveside birthdays and holidays. They mow the lawn, decorate the headstones and lie on the lush grass that has taken hold.

Caitlyne Gonzales, 11, who lost many of her friends in the shooting, comes to the cemetery to visit them. On a recent evening, she stopped by Jackie Cazares’s grave and played Taylor Swift music. She sang and danced and took selfies. For a moment, it was as if they were all together again.

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Caitlyne Gonzales dancing.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Protests and vigils

Many of the parents have found purpose in activism. Brett Cross, the uncle of Uziyah Garcia, 10, who was raising him as a son, spent 10 days camped outside the school district offices in protest, alongside other family members and supporters. They demanded that school police officers be suspended over their role in the delayed response.

The protest ended when the district halted its school police department’s operations and placed two officials on leave.

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Brett Cross protesting.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Family members have also testified before lawmakers on both the state and federal levels and protested beyond Uvalde. Tamir said that an image of Jackie Cazares’s parents, Javier and Gloria, at an annual gun violence vigil in Washington, D.C., surrounded by other survivors of gun violence, was one of the most powerful moments he’s witnessed.

“It’s important to see each of these family members as part of a nationwide network of people intimately affected by gun violence,” he said. “It’s one that is growing each day.”

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A vigil for victims of gun violence.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

More on Uvalde

 

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War in Ukraine
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Russian soldiers with the Free Russia Legion in February.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
 
Social Media
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Doubters have already written off DeSantis’s chances in the 2024 Republican primaries. He’s not dead yet, Rich Lowry argues.

Here are columns by Farhad Manjoo on Adobe’s artificial intelligence and Jamelle Bouie on Neil Gorsuch.

 
 

Enjoy everything The Times offers — all in one subscription. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes and more. Save with a new introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

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Nien-Ken Alec Lu

Fed up: Diners are sick of QR-code menus.

A renters’ utopia: Why it might look like Vienna.

BayouWear: These bright and colorful clothes were born at a New Orleans jazz festival.

Advice from Wirecutter: You need a good purse organizer.

Lives Lived: Rick Hoyt was a regular at the Boston Marathon who competed in more than 1,000 road races using a wheelchair pushed by his father. He died at 61.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Boston lives: The Celtics staved off elimination last night with a season-saving win in Miami.

Rodgers scare: Aaron Rodgers didn’t practice yesterday after tweaking his calf, but that didn’t stop the first day of Jets’ practice from being jubilant.

N.H.L. blitz: The Las Vegas Golden Knights took a 3-0 series lead after scoring three times in the first eight minutes of last night’s victory over the Stars.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

The show goes on

The Tony Awards will look different this year, but they will go on, after a group of playwrights convinced the striking Hollywood writers’ union not to picket the show.

As part of the agreement, the awards show will have no scripted material. But it will feature the usual razzle-dazzle performances from this year’s crop of musicals. That was crucial for Broadway, which has struggled to attract audiences since the pandemic and relies on the Tonys to generate interest.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Armando Rafael for The New York Times

Add a sesame vinaigrette to this tomato salad.

 
What to Watch

Here are hidden gems to stream this month, including a foodie-meets-performance artist comedy.

 
What to Read

“Time Shelter,” a novel in which a nostalgia fever sweeps Europe, won the International Booker Prize.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were amicable, claimable and climbable. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Good morning. As DeSantis announces his campaign, we dig into what may be the single most important fact about U.S. politics.

 
 
 
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Ron DeSantis announced his candidacy at a Twitter event.Chris Delmas/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The ‘Scaffles’ vote

If Ronald Reagan were to come back to life, he would probably be confused by the leftist tone that the early 2024 Republican presidential campaign has sometimes taken.

After Ron DeSantis announced he was holding a fund-raiser last night at the Four Seasons hotel, an official close to Donald Trump mocked the event as “uber elite” and “out of touch.” Trump has also criticized DeSantis for supporting past Republican bills in Congress to shrink government partly by cutting Medicare and Social Security.

DeSantis, for his part, has come out in favor of government action to reduce health care prices. He criticized the Biden administration for blocking cheaper prescription drugs from Canada — a country that used to be a symbol of big-government inefficiency among Republicans. This month, DeSantis, Florida’s governor, signed a bill that tries to lower drug costs there by cracking down on companies known as pharmacy benefit managers.

What’s going on?

Trump’s trouncing of the Republican establishment in 2016, and his continued popularity among the party’s voters, has exposed a weakness of the laissez-faire economic approach known as Reaganism. Namely, it isn’t especially popular with most voters, including many Republicans.

With DeSantis announcing his candidacy last night, I want to use today’s newsletter to highlight arguably the most important fact about U.S. politics: Americans tend to be more progressive on economic issues than they are on social issues. If you can remember that, you will be able to make better sense of the 2024 campaign.

It explains why DeSantis and Trump are competing with each other to sound populist, even if it means favoring government regulations and benefits. It explains why Trump’s criticism of free trade resonated with voters — and why President Biden has promoted his own “buy America” economic policies, breaking with centrist Democrats. It also explains why today’s Republicans campaign on social issues like immigration, crime, gender and religion; most Americans are more conservative on these subjects than the Democratic Party is.

It is true that there is a subset of voters, many of them affluent, who like to describe themselves as “socially liberal and fiscally conservative.” If you’re reading this newsletter, you probably know some people in that category. Yet it happens to be the least common combination in American politics. The typical swing voter is instead “socially conservative and fiscally liberal.”

The 2024 presidential election is likely to be, at least in part, a battle for that voter.

Medicaid and border security

This chart — originally created by the political scientist Lee Drutman, using a large poll taken after the 2016 election — remains the best visualization of the situation:

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Source: Lee Drutman, New America | By The New York Times

It places respondents, each of whom is represented by a dot, on two scales. One scale is based on economic issues like trade, taxes and safety-net programs, while the other is based on social issues like abortion, immigration, race and pride in the United States. Economic progressives appear on the left side of the chart, and economic conservatives on the right. Social conservatives appear in the top half, and social progressives in the bottom. The dots are colored based on their 2016 vote, be it for Trump, Hillary Clinton or a third-party candidate.

Not surprisingly, people who are liberal on both kinds of issues (the bottom left quadrant) overwhelmingly voted Democratic, and consistent conservatives (the top right quadrant) were solid Trump voters. The socially liberal and fiscally conservative quadrant is mostly empty. And the opposite quadrant is the battleground of American politics.

These socially conservative and fiscally liberal voters — you can call them Scaffles, for their acronym — have voted for progressive economic policies when they appear as ballot initiatives, even in red states. Arkansas, Florida, Missouri and Nebraska, for instance, have passed minimum-wage increases. Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Utah have expanded Medicaid through Obamacare. Republicans without a college degree are often the ones who break with their party on these ballot initiatives.

At the same time, Scaffles are the reason that a Times poll last year showed that most voters, including many Latinos, prefer the Republican Party’s stance on illegal immigration to the Democratic Party’s. Or consider a recent KFF/Washington Post poll on transgender issues, in which most Americans said they opposed puberty-blocking treatments for children.

Yes, public opinion has nuances. Most Americans also support laws prohibiting discrimination against trans people, the KFF poll showed. Sometimes, the parties can also overreach. When Democrats talk positively about socialism, they alienate swing voters. On abortion, Republicans have gone so far right, — passing almost total bans, that the issue has become a drag on the party.

But don’t confuse the nuances and exceptions with the big picture. DeSantis and Trump understand that the old Republican approach to economic policy is a vulnerability, which is why they often sound like populists. And when they emphasize cultural conservatism, they aren’t merely catering to their base. They are often appealing to swing voters, too.

More on DeSantis

 

THE LATEST NEWS

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President Biden and Jill Biden.Doug Mills/The New York Times
 
International
 
Tina Turner
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Tina Turner in Brighton, England, in 1985.John Rogers/Hulton Archive, via Getty Images
  • Tina Turner, whose explosive energy and singular rasp made her one of the most successful recording artists of all time, has died at 83.
  • Musicians, politicians and fans mourned Turner. “She was inspiring, warm, funny and generous,” Mick Jagger wrote.
  • Hear 11 of her greatest tracks, which show her mastery of R&B, rock and pop.
  • It is hard to think of a boundary Turner didn’t break, Jacob Bernstein writes. See her life in photos.
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

When transgender people sue to block anti-trans laws, they are also protecting the right to dress how one pleases, Kate Redburn writes.

To remove plastic from oceans, governments should focus on just 1,000 polluted rivers, Boyan Slat writes.

Here are columns by Pamela Paul on affirmative action and Charles Blow on the Republicans in the presidential race.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Celebrity barber Marcus Harvey and former N.B.A. player Grant Hill.Kim Raff for The New York Times

Superstar barbers: Their clients are celebrities. So are they.

Bussin and cakewalk: Editors released words from a dictionary of African American English.

Millionaire vs. billionaire: The mega-rich are just like us — they fight over home renovation, too.

Advice from Wirecutter: Try a timesaving laundry sorter.

Patio chic: How to hang your outdoor string lights correctly this summer.

Lives Lived: Bill Lee was a bassist and composer who scored the early films of his son Spike Lee and worked prolifically as a sideman for Bob Dylan and Aretha Franklin. He died at 94.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

A walk-off clincher: Matthew Tkachuk scored with 4.9 seconds left in the Panthers’ win over the Hurricanes, sending the No. 8 seed to the Stanley Cup Final.

Block mania: P.G.A. pro Michael Block is still trying to make sense of his newfound fame.

Superfan: The eccentric Yankees ballhawk who caught an Aaron Judge home run ball this week is more than a lucky spectator.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

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Puccini’s “La Fanciulla del West.”Roger Mastroianni/The Cleveland Orchestra

Classical audiences return

Last fall, orchestras around the U.S. were in crisis: They were playing to concert halls that were often less than half full. “It was very visible, and very scary,” said Melia Tourangeau, the chief executive of the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra. But those fears as easing this spring, as orchestras find success winning back audiences with popular programs and collaborations on film screenings and theater productions.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Bobbi Lin for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Eugene Jho.

These crispy chicken cutlets are infused with lemon.

 
What to Watch

The eight-episode Disney+ series “American Born Chinese,” loosely based on Gene Luen Yang’s graphic novel.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was deductive. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 26, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering a Ukrainian counteroffensive, A.I. risks and “Barbie.”

 
 
 
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Ukrainian troops.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Any day now

Retaking land occupied by an enemy during war is a brutally difficult task. But a military trying to do so usually has one big advantage: surprise. The occupying force does not know when or where the attackers will strike.

In 1944, the U.S. and its allies tricked the Nazis into believing that an invasion of France would take place on a different part of the Atlantic coast than it did. Today, Ukraine is similarly hoping to surprise Russia with the start of a spring or summer counteroffensive. The Russians know that a major attack is coming but not the form it will take.

The outcome of that counteroffensive could shape the outcome of the war. A successful campaign by Ukraine, retaking territory that Russia now controls, could cause President Vladimir Putin to fear outright defeat and look for a face-saving peace deal. A failed counteroffensive could cause Ukraine’s Western allies to wonder whether the war is winnable and potentially push Ukraine toward an unfavorable truce.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll preview the coming phase of the war, with help from colleagues covering it. The counteroffensive could start at any point over the next several weeks.

The land bridge

The so-called land bridge that Russia has established in southeastern Ukraine is likely to be the focus:

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Source: Institute for the Study of War | Data as of May 22, 2023. | By The New York Times

The southern edge of the land bridge is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces invaded and seized almost a decade ago. Since the larger war began last year, Putin has also taken control of territory that connects Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine. “The Ukrainians want to break the land bridge,” Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington, told me.

The territory that Russia controls gives it several strategic advantages. One, Ukraine is cut off from about half of its coastline. Two, the territory includes a nuclear plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia that is a major producer of electricity.

Three, and perhaps most significantly, Russia can more easily supply its troops in Crimea. The land bridge is one of two routes for Russia’s military supplies to Crimea and towns in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, The Times’s Kyiv bureau chief. (The other is the Kerch Strait.)

Punching through

Experts have compared the war’s recent months to World War I, with both sides dug into trenches and neither making much progress. Russia lost tens of thousands of troops this year merely to capture Bakhmut, a marginal city in the Donbas.

Ukraine hopes that its counteroffensive will end this stalemate. Western allies have supplied the Ukrainian military with billions of dollars of equipment and trained its troops at camps in Germany over the past few months. The troops have learned a technique known as combined-arms warfare, in which different parts of the military work together to take territory. Tanks punch through enemy lines by rolling over trenches, for example, and infantry then spread out to hold the area.

“The counteroffensive will very likely start in multiple places, maybe in the south and the east,” Julian said. “Some of those will be feints. Some will be part of the main efforts.”

Ukraine still has fewer troops and less equipment than Russia, but Ukraine’s military has so far proven more effective — with better morale, smarter tactics and more advanced Western weapons — than Russia’s. The counteroffensive is effectively a bet that Ukraine can use those advantages not just to repel Russia but to retake large territories.

As Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a Ukraine correspondent, said, “If Ukraine manages to sever the land bridge, Russian troops will be under further strain and, more importantly, Ukraine will be in a better position to attack farther east and south, toward Crimea.”

Most experts do not believe Ukraine will retake Crimea anytime soon — or that this war will end with Crimea back under Ukrainian control. Still, Ukraine does not need that outcome for the counteroffensive to be a success. Any major progress could cause Putin and his aides to worry that a long war would bring further losses and eventually put Crimea at risk. “The Russian people do care about Crimea,” my colleague Helene Cooper said. Before the Soviet era, the region was part of Russia for decades.

In the favorable scenario for Ukraine, a peace deal in which Russia is expelled from everywhere but Crimea and parts of the Donbas region would become plausible. On the flip side, a failed counteroffensive and an unbroken land bridge would provide Putin with a big psychological victory and a foundation from which to launch future attacks.

An important factor is that Ukraine now has enough weapons for only one major push. If the Ukrainians have not made progress by the fall, when colder and wetter weather makes fighting harder, the Russian land bridge may begin to look impregnable.

As Helene points out, however, Ukraine has frequently exceeded expectations in this war. Even the fall of Bakhmut, while a disappointment, took months longer than analysts expected. In the months ahead, Ukraine’s military will try to accomplish perhaps its most difficult task since repelling Russia’s initial invasion.

For more

  • Russia struck a medical center in Dnipro, Ukrainian officials said.
  • The leader of a Russian mercenary group said his troops were starting to leave Bakhmut. They will be replaced by regular Russian forces.
 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Debt Limit
  • White House officials and Republican lawmakers are closing in on a deal that would raise the debt limit for two years.
  • The agreement taking shape would let Republicans point to spending cuts and let Democrats say that they limited the cuts.
  • The debt limit standoff is the first big test for Hakeem Jeffries as the House minority leader.
 
Politics
 
Climate
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Near the Roanoke River.Erin Schaff/The New York Times
 
Business
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Christian Cooper, the Central Park birder falsely accused of threatening a white dog walker, makes the case for birding. “We love birds for a simple reason,” he writes. “They can fly.”

Here are columns by Gail Collins on Dianne Feinstein, Bret Stephens on Ethiopian Jews and Michelle Goldberg on Ron DeSantis.

 
 

Enjoy everything The Times offers — all in one subscription. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes and more. Save with a new introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

Middle gets the armrests: A flight attendant offers 12 etiquette rules for flying.

A thrashing octopus: Was it having a nightmare?

The Oyster Farmers: A couple left their lives in Brooklyn to take over a farm on Long Island.

Modern Love: She lost the first and second loves of her life. She didn’t want to lose the third.

Change your sheets: It’s time for linen.

Advice from Wirecutter: Buy a label maker.

Lives Lived: Nicholas Gray helped make the unlikely combination of hot dogs with tropical fruit juices a New York City phenomenon with his eatery, Gray’s Papaya. He died at 86.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

The Celtics: Boston won Game 5 against the Heat last night, on their way back from a 3-0 series deficit.

N.H.L. survival: An overtime goal from Joe Pavelski saved Dallas’ season in its Game 4 win over Las Vegas last night.

Inside U.S.C.’s mess: Trojans athletic director Mike Bohn resigned a week ago. A new report said he created a “toxic atmosphere” at Cincinnati, his previous employer.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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“Barbie,” starring Margot Robbie.Warner Bros.

Blockbuster season

The summer movie season begins next week. Among the movies that have excited The Times’s critics:

  • Horror: “The Boogeyman,” inspired by a Stephen King story, about a young woman who battles a home-invading supernatural entity. (June 2)
  • Sci-fi: “Asteroid City,” Wes Anderson’s take on the 1950s fascination with flying saucers, featuring his usual star-studded cast. (June 16)
  • Action: “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” Harrison Ford’s final film in the franchise. (June 30)
  • Animation: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” the sequel to the Oscar-winning “Into the Spider-Verse.” (June 2)
 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Andrew Sullivan for The New York Times

Make homemade pesto — it’s the season.

 
Memorial Day

Get outside this weekend — hiking is good for your mental and physical health

 
News Quiz
 
Now Time to Play
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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was inhibitor. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. Meher Ahmad joins Times Opinion’s special projects team as a staff editor.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 27, 2023

 

Good morning. It’s Memorial Day Weekend, signaling the start of summer, ready or not.

 
 
 
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María Jesús Contreras

Time warp

When I picture time passing, I think of a calendar — specifically, a full-year calendar printed on one page, the sort that a bank or a restaurant might hand out as a freebie, emblazoned with its logo.

The year is laid out as a grid: three rows, four months to a row. I picture each row as seasons elapsing: The top row starts mostly cold and dreary with January, but by the end of the row, in April, it’s milder and brighter and there’s this feeling of almost arriving into the second row, where things open up. May through August is the marrow of the year, when daylight is at its maximum, when things feel a little looser and more possible. The middle row is, for summer partisans, really the only row worth languishing in.

However you picture time, you probably have a distinct feeling about this weekend, Memorial Day, summer’s unofficial start. Disbelief seems to be the prevailing response this year: How can it be summer again, where has the time gone? “Time’s a flat circle, a record spinning, always and forever returning to its start,” my colleague Sam Sifton wrote in the Cooking newsletter yesterday, and he’s right. We’re still figuring out the tricks time pulled over the past few years, how it stretched and contracted, sped up and slowed and there was, for a while there, time to contemplate it.

Ready or not, it’s summer again. The calendar has decreed it — even if the weather or your wardrobe or your kids or your garden aren’t ready. Memorial Day weekend forces a mind-set shift. Beaches open up, mattresses are on sale, you can smell someone grilling. (Maybe it’s you.) The middle row is in full swing.

If it all feels too abrupt and you’re struggling to catch up, might I suggest planning your summer movie schedule? I’ve been patiently awaiting Nicole Holofcener’s latest, “You Hurt My Feelings,” starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tobias Menzies, which opens this weekend. Other highlights: John Slattery directs Jon Hamm and Tina Fey in “Maggie Moore(s),” opening on June 16. There’s a Wham! documentary coming to Netflix on July 5. “Indiana Jones” arrives on June 30, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” on July 21.

We’ve also got a bunch of selections for your beach- or park- or couch-reading pleasure: Try a thriller, a romance, perhaps an audiobook? The two audiobooks on our list that are about birds sound enchanting and seasonally appropriate.

And of course, there’s always summer’s unofficial (or perhaps it’s official?) fruit, the strawberry, which stars in three Melissa Clark recipes, each of which seems poised to join Jerrelle Guy’s strawberry spoon cake in my personal pantheon of the world’s best desserts.

For more

  • From 2019, 100 years of Memorial Day coverage in The Times.
  • If you find yourself in traffic this weekend, here’s a game to calm your nerves. (Back-seat drivers only.)
  • Or, listen to my story of the poem that brings me comfort when times are tough. It’s on New York Times Audio, a new iOS app that Times news subscribers can download here.
 

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THE WEEK IN CULTURE

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Tina Turner performing in Paris in 1987.Bertrand Guay/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
  • Tina Turner, who died at 83, was a tornado and a treasure. She lived “so galactically, so contagiously,” that Wesley Morris, a Times critic, hardly believed she could die.
  • In the Swiss town where she lived, Turner was a neighbor, not a star. No one bothered her when she went shopping or stood in line at the post office.
  • Bob Mackie, a designer, reflected on dressing Turner for years. See the looks.
  • A live action adaptation of “The Little Mermaid” was released in the U.S. Halle Bailey, who plays Ariel, discussed the film’s racist backlash.
  • Despite the uproar, “The Little Mermaid” stays dutiful to the original. That’s to its detriment, Wesley Morris writes. See one of the scenes.
  • Gustavo Dudamel, the star maestro set to take over the New York Philharmonic, is leaving the Paris Opera four years ahead of schedule.
  • A new trailer for “Barbie” was quickly converted to memes, The Cut reports.
  • The social highlight of the Cannes Film Festival was a 100th anniversary party for Warner Bros., attended by Hollywood’s biggest stars and media executives.
  • University of Alabama sorority sisters assessed the accuracy of a documentary about their rush process.
  • A documentary about the actress Mary Tyler Moore examines her life personifying a kind of hopeful, second-wave feminism.
  • Padma Lakshmi, the longtime host of “Top Chef,” visits immigrant communities throughout the United States in the second season of “Taste the Nation.”
 

THE LATEST NEWS

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
 

CULTURE CALENDAR

📚 “Genealogy of a Murder: Four Generations, Three Families, One Fateful Night” (Tuesday): I can’t wait to dive into Lisa Belkin’s true crime tale that charts the histories of three men involved in a 1960 murder. In his review in The Times, Robert Kolker called it “a somewhat knotty yet exhilarating, intimate study of fate, chance and the wildly meaningful intersections of disparate lives.” Doesn’t that sound enticing?

🎶 Cowboy Junkies, “Such Ferocious Beauty” (Friday): The Canadian alt-country band Cowboy Junkies has a new album coming out. If you, like me, can still sing every word to every song on the group’s 1988 album “The Trinity Session,” you’ll be happy to know that Margo Timmins’s voice is as melancholy and enchanting as ever.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

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RECIPE OF THE WEEK

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Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Classic Deviled Eggs

It’s Memorial Day Weekend, the official start to cookout and picnic season. That means there’s a good chance you’re contemplating deviling some eggs for nibbling while the grill heats up. You can’t go wrong with this classic recipe, filled with egg yolks, mayonnaise and mustard spiked with hot sauce. You can boil and peel the eggs the day before, and even mix together the filling. But don’t spoon it into the whites until as close to serving time as possible. And be sure to make extra: You never know how long it might take for those coals to catch.

 

REAL ESTATE

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Shelter Island Heights, N.Y.Liz Glasgow Studios

What you get for $2.7 million: A Carpenter Gothic showplace in Shelter Island Heights, N.Y.; an 1890 home in Key West, Fla.; or a midcentury-modern house in Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

The hunt: She wanted a home in the Hamptons for $4 million. Which one did she choose? Play our game.

Lighting for summer nights: Outdoor lighting makes everything more magical.

Montauk trailer park: A different kind of second home.

A garden as art: The designer of the High Line shares his secrets.

 

LIVING

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Aja Dang-Puspos spent her solo bachelorette trip at a spa in Arizona.Krissy Mae

Solo bachelorette: Some brides are ditching the parties in favor of a trip alone.

Digital spring cleaning: Try these tips for healthier engagement on social media.

Hold it together: Make comfort food and ditch the to-do list.

Joy around the world: What are the happiest countries doing right?

 

ADVICE FROM WIRECUTTER

Make your vacuum last

If your long-weekend plans include tidying your home for summer guests, give your vacuum some T.L.C. to make it more effective — even the best model won’t clean well if you don’t occasionally tend to it. Glutted dustbins, stinky filters, and hair tangles reduce suction and can lead to the premature death of battery and motor. Simple, routine maintenance, like cleaning the filter and untangling the brush roll, will keep your vacuum running for years and save money over time. — Sabine Heinlein

Wirecutter is giving away a Miele Complete C3 Calima vacuum. Enter for a chance to win.

 

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

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Tampa Bay pitcher Jalen Beeks.Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays, M.L.B.: Enjoy some baseball with your Sunday morning coffee. The Rays have the best record in the majors this season, and it’s not a fluke — by some measures, they have the top offense and the best starting pitching, Eno Sarris notes in The Athletic. The Dodgers, who lead their division, are thriving thanks to Mookie Betts, an All-Star outfielder who was asked to play shortstop because of injuries on the team and turned out to be great at it. 11:30 a.m. Eastern tomorrow, streaming on Peacock.

For more

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was blocked. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

See the hardest Spelling Bee words from this week.

Take the news quiz to see how well you followed this week’s headlines.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. — Melissa

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 28, 2023

 

Good morning. A debt deal might struggle to pass Congress, despite support from party leaders.

 
 
 
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Kevin McCarthy, the House speaker.Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Preventing catastrophe

America is a little closer to averting a self-imposed economic crisis.

President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House leader, announced yesterday that they had reached a deal to increase the amount of money the government can borrow. The deal includes caps on federal spending, additional work requirements for food stamps and welfare, and reforms to build energy projects more quickly. Altogether, it is the kind of spending deal that Democrats and Republicans have agreed to multiple times over the past few decades.

But the agreement is remarkable because of how close the country has come to calamity this time. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. will run out of money as early as June 5 — in just a few days. At that point, the federal government could be forced to default on its debts, potentially setting off a global financial crisis (as this newsletter has explained).

The bill’s passage in Congress is not guaranteed. Today’s newsletter will explain the deal struck by Biden and McCarthy — and the main thing that could still go wrong.

A bipartisan deal

The final agreement is a compromise. Many Republicans wanted steeper cuts, and many Democrats wanted no cuts. The deal landed in between. “I don’t think everybody is going to be happy at the end of the day,” McCarthy said on Thursday. “That’s not how this system works.”

First, the deal would raise the debt limit for two years. This moves any future debt limit fight to after the 2024 election.

The spending caps at the center of the agreement target federal programs besides Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the military — such as education, scientific research and border security. The caps would not actually reduce spending, but aim to make it grow more slowly than inflation and the economy. This arrangement lets both sides claim a win of sorts: Republicans can call it a spending cut, since spending will grow more slowly than it might have otherwise. And Democrats can say they prevented actual cuts.

The deal would also claw back some of the funds previously allocated to the Internal Revenue Service to crack down on rich tax cheats. Under the deal, some of the I.R.S. funds could be used to mitigate other spending cuts. That reflects the bipartisan nature of the talks, with both sides getting wins: Republicans get to claim they successfully cut I.R.S. funding, and Democrats get to use the money to soften other cuts they never wanted.

Similarly, the permitting reforms in the deal could enable more clean energy projects, a Democratic priority, but also more oil and gas projects, which Republicans favor.

One last hurdle

The big question now: Will the deal pass? The right flank of the House Republicans has a big say. Those lawmakers have a history of doing everything they can to block spending deals they disapprove of. They could do so again, and they have sufficient power to kill the deal because McCarthy has only a nine-vote majority.

McCarthy has tried to avoid a mutiny by involving some of the most conservative members in debt limit talks and putting them in leadership positions. But there is no guarantee they stick with him — especially if they believe he went too far in his concessions to the White House.

There are two leading scenarios. In one, far-right Republicans vote against the deal but let it pass, and McCarthy secures the needed votes from Democratic lawmakers willing to back his compromise legislation with Biden. That result would be a vindication for McCarthy’s approach to the speakership: By bringing his most conservative members into the fold, he’ll have stopped them from taking more drastic action.

In the other scenario, far-right Republicans essentially tank the agreement. They could call a vote on whether to oust McCarthy as speaker and, because House Republicans have such a narrow majority, McCarthy could lose. (Remember: It took McCarthy 15 ballots to win the speakership in the first place.)

Conservative Republicans might stop short of such a step to avoid being blamed for the aftermath, said my colleague Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent. If the federal government defaults on its debts and economic catastrophe follows, it will be clear that the hard right allowed this to happen by blocking a deal that a majority of lawmakers were ready to pass.

With that scenario in mind, conservative Republicans may let a deal go through even as they vote against it.

More on the debt limit

 

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NEWS

Politics
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The House chamber at the Texas Capitol.Mike Osborne for The New York Times
 
International
 
Other Big Stories
 

FROM OPINION

The Republican case against student-debt relief relies on the false claim that it will hurt a Missouri loan authority’s revenue, Eleni Schirmer and Louise Seamster write.

Here are columns by Jamelle Bouie on “sub-national authoritarianism” and Ezra Klein on artificial intelligence.

 
 

The Sunday question: Is Gov. Ron DeSantis a strong candidate for president?

Start as you mean to go on, they say,” The Washington Post’s Alexandra Petri writes of the Florida governor and his glitchy campaign announcement. But DeSantis’s bumbling launch has led people to underestimate his chances, Rich Lowry writes for Politico.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

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Geena DavisMagdalena Wosinska for The New York Times

How sexist is Hollywood? Check out Geena Davis’s spreadsheet.

ChatGPT: A lawyer used A.I. to prepare a court filing. Whoops.

Vows: They made their wedding a love letter to Black culture.

Lives Lived: Stanley Engerman was a scholar who used data to challenge commonly held ideas about American slavery, including that it was unprofitable and inefficient. He died at 87.

 

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ADVICE FOR LIFE

Guess these 10 wacky words from the Scripps National Spelling Bee.

Block out annoying noise from your neighbor.

Trick your brain into enjoying a workout.

 

BOOKS

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Unsparing memoir: “Women We Buried, Women We Burned” chronicles one woman’s quest to create a fulfilling life on her own terms.

Our editors’ picks: The novel “Ascension,” about the sudden appearance of a mountain far larger than Everest, and eight other books.

By the Book: In 2018, Tina Turner wanted to invite Dante to her dinner party.

Times best sellers: Samantha Irby’s new collection of essays “Quietly Hostile” is on the paperback nonfiction list.

 

THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE

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Luca Locatelli for The New York Times

On the cover: While much of the world struggles with housing, Vienna is a renters’ utopia.

Ethicist: “My father was awful. Do I have to plan his funeral?”

Vermeer: Look beyond the beauty to see violence.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch For
  • Tomorrow is Memorial Day in the U.S..
  • DeSantis will hold his first in-person presidential campaign event on Tuesday in Des Moines, Iowa.
  • The Scripps National Spelling Bee Finals will be held Thursday.
  • Monthly U.S. employment numbers will be released Friday.
 
What to Cook This Week
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

The recipes in this edition of Five Weeknight Dishes, Emily Weinstein’s newsletter, all work for Memorial Day weekend gatherings and the days that follow. This stovetop barbecue chicken makes a cookout favorite without a grill; orecchiette salad uses halloumi, a cheese that sears beautifully, for croutons; and Kenji López-Alt’s dry-brined salmon calls for salting the fish beforehand — a trick that results in crisper skin and juicier flesh.

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was longboat. Here is today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 29, 2023

 

If you aren’t lucky enough to be spending the holiday in a national park, today’s newsletter is meant to transport you to one through photographs. — David Leonhardt

 
 

Good morning. We’re covering national parks, Turkey’s presidential election and the “Succession” finale.

 
 
 
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Bryce Canyon National ParkErin Schaff/The New York Times

Getting ready for Memorial Day

Today is something of a curtain raiser for the U.S. National Parks system, ushering in its busiest season.

Last year, nearly 312 million people visited the parks, hiking across the Grand Canyon, posting Instagram stories from Joshua Tree and waiting for Old Faithful by Yellowstone’s rainbow pools. (Reminder: Don’t touch the bison calves!) On Memorial Day last year, so many people headed to the sites that many of their parking lots were full by midmorning.

At Bryce Canyon National Park in Utah, home to 50-million-year-old rock formations, park rangers start clearing the way for visitors weeks ahead of the busy season. They restore dozens of miles of trails — removing debris and navigating steep cliffs on foot before the snow even melts, as my colleague Linda Qiu reported in a story with photos by Erin Schaff. Similar preparation plays out at the system’s parks around the country.

The rangers’ tasks make for a strenuous job, and one that’s getting harder as climate change brings floods, landslides and fires.

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A crew clearing rocks and damage from storms. Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Cleaning up erosion

Over millions of years, wind and rain have shaped the limestone in Bryce Canyon into maze of spire-shaped rocks shooting into the air at 8,000 feet. The process is responsible for the park’s dramatic beauty. But it’s also a pain for rangers.

Each winter, the rain and snow sand down the rock faces and degrade trails. Each spring, crews clear hiking paths of debris, mostly by hand to limit destruction to the natural habitat.

“The amount of physical labor used to clear the trails was so surprising to me,” Erin said. “The rocks they lift are incredibly heavy. Like, how can you repetitively do this all summer to your back?”

Unusually intense storms and a wet winter this past year wrought severe damage, delaying trail openings and complicating cleanup. One side of the trail remains closed as crews continue repairs, digging out the surface of the route and installing wire baskets filled with large rocks along the perimeter to divert water and facilitate drainage.

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Search-and-rescue training.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Training for emergencies

The rock slides and high elevation pose a risk for visitors, too.

Bryce averages around 40 search-and-rescue operations a year, often to help people who have fallen. Rangers and local volunteers undergo basic technical rescue training, learning to use ropes and high-angle equipment for more complicated rescues.

Here’s one example: Last summer, a visitor could not complete a strenuous eight-mile hike. She tried to take a shortcut to return to the starting point and became separated from her grandchildren. Hours later, rangers found her clinging to a precipitous slope, unable to move. Securing ropes, they descended and lifted her to safety.

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A ranger looking through a telescope.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Ensuring dark skies

The rangers have to fit all of their cleanup and prep work into daylight hours. At night, their job is to keep the lights off, protecting Bryce’s status as a dark-sky park: After sunset, less than 1 percent of Bryce Canyon is lit by artificial light.

“It’s clear how proud they are of the uniqueness of Bryce’s night sky,” Linda said. “They’re conserving the park, but they’re also preserving a view of the Milky Way.”

 

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Turkish Election
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, and his wife, Emine.Ali Unal/Associated Press
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey won re-election in a runoff, overcoming a reeling economy and anger over an earthquake’s devastation.
  • NATO countries are worried about his grip on the country and his ties to Vladimir Putin. Here are five election takeaways.
  • Erdogan has played up Turkey’s Ottoman past, using monuments and TV shows to rally his voters.
 
Debt Limit
 
Memorial Day
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A service member visits the gravesite of his friend.Pete Marovich for The New York Times
 
Politics
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

This Memorial Day weekend, Kayla M. Williams remembers the civilians and service members who died outside combat.

Here are columns by Ross Douthat on Elon Musk and Ron DeSantis, Maureen Dowd on the humanities and David French on why conservatives are wrong about masculinity.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

Canceling the Hamptons: Young people are staying away, turned off by conspicuous wealth.

News knowledge: Have you taken our latest news quiz? The average score was 8.8.

Metropolitan Diary: Savoring a solo pizza and Negroni moment.

Advice from Wirecutter: Learn how to clean a bird feeder.

Lives Lived: George Maharis was a 1960s television heartthrob, starring in the series “Route 66.” He died at 94.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Game 7: Boston is favored to win the series, which would be a historic comeback from a 3-0 deficit. The game is tonight.

N.H.L.: The Stars will face the Golden Knights tonight after forcing a Game 6 in their Western Conference final series.

Premier League: Luton Town is joining the top level of English football after 31 years of waiting.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Logan Roy and Tom in “Succession.”David M. Russell/HBO

Goodbye to ‘Succession’

HBO’s “Succession,” which aired its finale last night, was in many ways the late-capitalist heir to “Dallas,” the Times TV critic James Poniewozik wrote, a prime-time saga that used delicious dialogue and sibling rivalries to explore the nature of wealth. What made the shows different, though, was the ways that wealth has changed since the 1980s — namely, the rich are now much richer. “The holdings of Waystar Royco,” James writes, “make Ewing Oil look like a franchise gas station.”

More on “Succession”:

  • Read a recap of last night’s final episode (it contains spoilers).
 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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James Ransom for The New York Times

Need a salad for today? This one comes together in 10 minutes.

 
What to Read

New books by showcase young women embarking on journeys of discovery about family and self.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were finitude, infinitude, unfitted and unidentified. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. On Memorial Day in 2004, a memorial to World War II veterans was dedicated on the National Mall in Washington, D.C.

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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 30, 2023

 

The Times has recently created a Weather desk, and you’ll be hearing from one of its journalists in today’s newsletter. Judson Jones, a meteorologist who has been fascinated by the weather since he was a boy tracking tornadoes in Arkansas, offers a preview of the coming summer. — David Leonhardt

 
 
Author Headshot

By Judson Jones

Reporter/Meteorologist

Good morning. It could be a hotter summer than usual for much of the U.S.

 
 
 
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The Rockaways in July 2021.Karsten Moran for The New York Times

Getting warmer

This summer is likely to be hot in the U.S., and not just because it is typically the season of swelter.

Ocean temperatures, soil moisture, forecast models and long-term trends are all contributing factors in predicting a warmer-than-normal summer this year. The coasts of New England could be hot because the Atlantic Ocean already feels like summer, while the center of scorching temperatures will once again almost certainly be the Southwest.

I can almost hear the groan from those of you who are skeptical that meteorologists can deliver a good forecast seven days out, let alone for an entire summer. But before you send me, a meteorologist, accusatory emails, allow me to explain how predictions for an entire season work.

Experts at the National Weather Service create the forecasts by considering the land, water and atmospheric conditions that could influence and control weather patterns over the coming months. They use words like “leaning” if they believe there is a slight chance of temperatures or rainfall being outside the norm.

The map below, which shows the experts’ predictions for this summer, doesn’t necessarily mean that Arizona will be hotter than Michigan. It means that the chances of an extra-hot summer are much higher in Arizona than they are in Michigan.

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Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA | Data is the outlook for June, July and August 2023 as of May 18, 2023. | By The New York Times

If you find yourself this summer in an area where above-average heat is expected — like New York, Boston, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles or Seattle, to name a few — it doesn’t mean every day will be that way. What the experts are suggesting is that, over the next three months, there is at least a chance, maybe even a likelihood, that it will be warmer than it has been in the past three decades. That time span has consistently featured a trend toward warmer summers, magnifying extreme heat because of human-induced climate change.

In the rest of the newsletter, I’ll explain what different regions of the U.S. should expect this summer. While much of the nation will be hot, there is quite a bit of variation — it’s a big country, after all.

Around the country

Forecasters are expecting a hotter summer in the Northeast because ocean temperatures near the coast are already much higher than usual. That might make for a pleasant swim at New England beaches; it will also increase the air temperature. Because coastal waters are a major factor in driving up temperatures, experts are less sure whether it will be a warmer summer inland, in places like western New York and Pennsylvania.

In the South, warmer weather is also likely, with a greater likelihood near the coasts. But the weather story of the summer may end up being the rain: In June, forecasters say, Florida and other southeastern states could be drenched, mainly because of some possible early-season tropical cyclones. It’s possible that the Midwest and Great Lakes also have a rainier summer than usual.

The Southwest will probably see above-average summer temperatures and below-average rainfall. That’s because the southwest monsoon — a seasonal shift of winds that help bring about rainstorms — is expected to have a sluggish start.

Forecasters predicted above-average temperatures for the West Coast, though they’re not as confident about it as they are for the East Coast. They are also expecting a drier-than-normal summer in the Northwest partly because El Niño, a Pacific weather pattern that is on the verge of forming in the summer, tends to lead to below-average rainfall.

More on weather

  • The Southwest is especially vulnerable to summer blackouts. If a heat wave coincided with a blackout in Phoenix, it could overwhelm the city’s hospitals.
  • You can now get alerts from The Times about extreme weather in your community and other places you care about. Sign up here.
 

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War in Ukraine
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Kyiv, Ukraine. Nicole Tung for The New York Times
 
International
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Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrating.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
 
Debt Limit
 
Business
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

“Succession” was a devastating commentary on the way our politics blur fiction and reality, Kurt Andersen argues.

It’s up to Congress to undo the damage the Supreme Court has done to the Clean Water Act, Jim Murphy writes.

Big retailers like Walmart are strong-arming suppliers. Local businesses are paying the price, Stacy Mitchell writes.

Here are columns by Peter Coy on the debt limit deal and Michelle Cottle on the Republican field.

 
 

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Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

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The New York Times

Vanishing van Gogh: The trail of a missing painting led to Caribbean tax havens and a jailed Chinese billionaire.

Manhattanhenge: It’s all over New Yorkers’ feeds.

Tom and Greg: The “Succession” actors weigh in on the finale and their characters’ relationship.

Tina Turner tourists: She immortalized her hometown in song — drawing visitors to Nutbush, Tenn.

Summer friends: Have a summer house? Loose acquaintances are probably in your DMs.

Bug killing: Use the best gear and most effective repellent.

Memorial Day sale: Some are still going on. These are the real deal.

Advice from Wirecutter: Find a good iPhone screen protector.

Lives Lived: Sultan Khan beat some of the world’s top chess players despite growing up with little access to chess books. He died in 1966. Read about his life.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

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Caleb Martin shoots over a Celtics defender.Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Blowout win: The Miami Heat beat the Boston Celtics in Game 7. They will face the Denver Nuggets in the N.B.A. finals.

Golden Knights advance, too: Las Vegas is back in the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in the franchise’s six-year history after a 6-0 rout in Dallas.

The next Tiger? The world is ready for Rose Zhang, the golf wunderkind who makes her pro debut this weekend.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Fort Walton Beach, Fla.Lawren Simmons for The New York Times

Seaside vibes

If you’ve been to the beach in the past decade, you’ve probably seen the logo: Salt Life, written in a brash font. Maggie Lange explores how the brand evolved from a neck tattoo to become a symbol of oceanside living that’s inescapable along the Eastern Seaboard. “Salt Life has kind of encompassed everything that I do,” said Allen Cobbs, a Florida resident who spends most of his free time at the beach, fishing or lounging. “For me, the words mean a lot.”

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Christopher Simpson for The New York Times

Make a chicken sandwich with your Memorial Day barbecue leftovers.

 
What to Watch

See video highlights from the New York City Ballet.

 
Now Time to Play

Here are today’s Spelling Bee and yesterday’s answers. The Morning will no longer include the previous day’s pangrams, which will continue to be available to subscribers here above each day’s puzzle.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. The Times’s Kellen Browning won the Sidney Award, handed out monthly for outstanding journalism, for his article on tipping delivery drivers that was also featured in The Morning.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 31, 2023

 

Good morning. The bipartisan debt limit deal still isn’t assured of passing.

 
 
 
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Speaker Kevin McCarthy.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Republican unrest

Can House Republicans behave as the members of a well-functioning political party would? Or are they still the same party that has cycled through one House leader after another over the past decade, unable to find one who can unite various factions?

The past few days of debt-ceiling talks have brought conflicting signals. And Republicans don’t have much more time to choose a path: To avoid a default that many economists believe would be extremely damaging, Congress probably needs to act within the next several days.

For much of the past several weeks, House Republicans have looked decidedly functional. In April, they passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling that included deep spending cuts and was akin to an initial offer in a negotiation. This weekend, Republican leaders finalized a compromise with President Biden in which each side got some of what it wanted. The compromise bill looked to be on course to pass — even as conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats criticized aspects of it.

Yesterday, however, the compromise seemed to be at risk of coming apart because of Republican infighting. “Not one Republican should vote for this bill,” Representative Chip Roy of Texas, an influential ultraconservative, said yesterday afternoon.

Another hard-right Republican, Dan Bishop of North Carolina, was even harsher about his party’s leader, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and the compromise deal that McCarthy negotiated. “I’m fed up with the lies,” Bishop said. “I’m fed up with the lack of courage, the cowardice.” Some outside conservative groups, like the Club for Growth and the Heritage Foundation, have also criticized the compromise.

It remains unclear whether these complaints are mostly performative or whether they threaten the bill’s prospects. McCarthy continued to express optimism yesterday that the bill would pass, and the House Rules Committee gave him a procedural victory by voting to allow the full House to debate it today.

If the bill passes, all this back and forth will be relatively unimportant, and the outcome will still be a victory for McCarthy, albeit a messy one. But it is also a reminder of the chaos that is now a regular part of Republican Party politics. By comparison, congressional Democrats have been much more unified over the past 15 years and able to pass further-reaching legislation — on health care, the climate and other issues.

If a debt-ceiling bill fails and the government defaults on its obligations, the country could be facing a whole new level of turmoil. Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, has estimated that the government could run out of borrowing authority on Monday.

“I think it is probably going to pass, but there is obviously a lot of Republican unrest,” Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, told me last night. “Still rocky times ahead.”

The latest

 

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International
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A damaged apartment building in Moscow.Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
 
Politics
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Ron DeSantisRachel Mummey for The New York Times
  • Ron DeSantis kicked off his presidential campaign with a rally in Iowa, telling supporters he would fight “malignant ideology” and “impose” their will in Washington.
  • Tara Reade, the former Senate aide who accused Biden of sexual assault, moved to Russia and said she was seeking citizenship there.
  • After a string of police shootings in New Jersey, one killing led the state attorney general to seize control of a police department.
 
Energy
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The Russian oil-loading port of Kozmino.Konstantin Zavrazhin/Getty Images
 
Other Big Stories
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Elizabeth Holmes, left, turning herself in.Annie Mulligan for The New York Times
  • The disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes reported to prison to begin her 11-year sentence for fraud.
  • The Sacklers, the owners of Purdue Pharma, will receive full immunity from all civil legal claims over its prescription opioids business.
  • The James Beard awards, are investigating chefs to weed out potentially problematic nominees, but the process has pitfalls of its own.
  • Rosalynn Carter, the wife of President Jimmy Carter, has dementia.
  • Officials in Iowa paused plans to demolish a building that collapsed over the weekend after finding a resident still inside.
 
Opinions

Neutrality prevents both sides of a conflict from hindering humanitarian aid, Mirjana Spoljaric, the Red Cross president, writes.

North Korea analysts speculate about whether Kim Jong-un’s 10-year-old daughter will be his heir. The country’s rigid gender barriers work against her, Chun Su-jin writes.

Here are columns by Ezra Klein on the debt ceiling and Bret Stephens on Turkey’s election.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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The custom guitar maker Freeman Vines.Sasha Arutyunova for The New York Times

Art of craft: Each guitar he makes has a sound of its own.

Venice canals: How the city solved the mystery of the green water.

Moments of gratitude: Medical students honor people who donate their bodies to science.

Water filters: How much can they do?

Tech for kids: Use smartwatches and phones designed for children and the best apps for limiting screen time.

Home safety: Protect your home while you’re on vacation.

Advice from Wirecutter: Find a good mattress for under $500.

Lives Lived: Robin Wagner designed sets for more than 50 of Broadway’s most celebrated productions, including “Hair,” “A Chorus Line” and “Angels in America.” He died at 89.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Stepping away: Bob Myers, considered the architect of the Warriors dynasty, is leaving the franchise.

Inside a breakup: The new Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers expressed frustration about his departure from Green Bay.

Compensation anxiety: Alabama coach Nick Saban doesn’t have a problem with making players employees, but he worries it will only increase disparities in college football.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Jeremy StrongClaudette Barius/HBO

Total immersion

Jeremy Strong is famous for playing Kendall Roy in “Succession.” He’s also famous for his approach to acting, which GQ has described as “intense to the point of mania and delusion.” He said he tried to shed his own identity to play the part. He wore Kendall’s clothes and practiced self-doubt and the art of overcompensation.

Over four seasons, playing Kendall, a troubled, morally bankrupt son of a billionaire, exhausted him. “Somebody once said that actors are emotional athletes,” Strong told The Times. “And this show has been like a decathlon for me.”

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Make Turkish eggs with yogurt for breakfast.

 
Dance

Go to the subway platform to see the best performances.

 
What to Read

“Kairos,” set in Cold War Berlin, tells the story of an affair.

 
What to Do

Try a pottery workshop. They’re filling up with people who want to connect with others instead of screens.

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and yesterday’s answers. The Morning will no longer include the previous day’s pangrams, which will continue to be available to subscribers here above each day’s puzzle.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 1, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering the House passing the debt limit bill, a tape of Donald Trump and how to spend 36 hours in Los Angeles.

 
 
 
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Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Policy over principle

With the House passing a debt ceiling bill last night and the Senate likely to follow, I want to use today’s newsletter to assess President Biden’s handling of the issue.

Here’s my simple summary: Biden both won and lost. On policy grounds, he negotiated a good deal for Democratic Party priorities — but at the cost of abandoning what he had claimed was his principled refusal to negotiate over the debt ceiling. For Democrats to avoid a repeat of this experience, they will have to change their debt-ceiling strategy in future years.

How Biden won

Elections have consequences, as politicians like to say. Last year’s midterm elections left the country with divided government in which Democrats control the White House and Senate while Republicans control the House.

Even if the country had no debt ceiling, the two parties would have had to negotiate a budget this year. And the bill that the House passed yesterday — based on a compromise negotiated by Biden and Kevin McCarthy, the Republican speaker of the House — looks a lot like what a budget deal probably would have.

It is a short-term bill that lacks any attempt to solve the country’s long-term fiscal challenges through tax increases or changes to Medicare and Social Security. It also lacks major cuts to other domestic spending, instead reducing its growth by a few percentage points over the next two years.

Republicans were able to use their control of the House to insist on several policy changes, including lower nonmilitary spending; work requirements in anti-poverty programs; less funding for the enforcement of tax laws; and approval of an Appalachian gas pipeline. Democrats protected their biggest policy goals, including recent legislation on clean energy, health care and infrastructure. Biden may also be able to minimize the impact the bill’s spending cuts (like those related to tax enforcement) by later moving money from one program to another.

The fate of Biden’s climate policies seems especially important. The House bill not only protects all the clean energy subsidies passed last year, but also includes a bipartisan priority known as permitting reform that has the potential to remove some of the bureaucratic obstacles to major clean-energy projects.

I know some climate advocates are nonetheless angry because of the Appalachian pipeline, but I think they’re missing the big picture. Presidents do not have magical powers, and Biden has demonstrated that climate change is a top priority for him. “This is the thing the Climate Left keeps not acknowledging,” Matthew Yglesias wrote in his Substack newsletter this week.

Given the radicalism of today’s Republican Party and its tolerance for political chaos, there was a real risk that these debt ceiling talks would cause an economic crisis. Instead, they led to a classic political deal that left untouched the major accomplishes of Biden’s first term. It is a reminder that he is the most successful bipartisan negotiator to occupy the White House in decades.

How Biden lost

Almost no other country in the world has a debt ceiling. Legislators elsewhere see it as redundant. Politicians can argue about taxes and spending when writing budgets, but once they pass those budgets they don’t debate whether to pay their country’s bills.

If you think of it in terms of a family budget, you can see why the rest of the world scoffs at the idea. A family should have a serious discussion over whether it can afford a new car or house. But once it has bought the car or house, there isn’t much point in arguing over whether to pay the bill. Reneging on it will only worsen the family’s finances.

This background helps explain why Biden and his aides insisted — publicly and privately — that they would not negotiate over increasing the debt ceiling. Doing so, they explained, would encourage future ransom demands when the country again approached its debt limit. Congress should pass a straightforward increase to the limit, White House officials said, and Biden would then be happy to negotiate over the federal budget.

Instead, they abandoned this position and started negotiating with Republicans over the debt ceiling.

To be fair, Biden may not have had a choice. Had he refused to negotiate, a financial crisis could have ensued, and Biden might have taken the blame. But his surrender shows that Democrats (and the country) would benefit from a longer-term solution to the debt ceiling. As long as it exists, it will create economic uncertainty and give Republicans an extra opportunity to cut spending.

There is a straightforward solution, too. At any point, Congress could repeal the debt ceiling or raise it so high that it would be irrelevant for decades.

Some Democrats, including both progressives like Senator Elizabeth Warren and moderates like Senator Michael Bennet, favor this approach and pushed for it when their party controlled Congress early in Biden’s presidency. But other moderates, led by Senator Joe Manchin, blocked it, apparently out of a desire to show concern about the deficit. (Again, the debt ceiling isn’t actually fostering long-term deficit solutions, as Ezra Klein explains.)

Another scenario for solving the debt ceiling problem could come during a Republican presidency. When Donald Trump was in office, congressional Democrats raised the ceiling and asked for almost nothing in return. Imagine if they had said they would not act unless he agreed to raise it by so much that the issue would be irrelevant for many years.

Until the debt ceiling goes away, unnecessary economic turmoil will be a recurring feature of American politics. The next standoff is likely to occur in 2025.

For more

 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Politics
 
War in Ukraine
 
Climate and Environment
 
Other Big Stories
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  • See Covid’s lasting damage in these 3-D reconstructions of lung scans.
  • L.G.B.T.Q. people in Turkey fear that discrimination against them will worsen after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election campaign attacked gay rights.
  • Danny Masterson, an actor in “That ’70s Show,” was found guilty of two counts of rape.
 
Opinions

Five A.I. experts spoke about its great potential — and about what keeps them up at night.

Here are columns by Nicholas Kristof on education in Mississippi and Pamela Paul on political correctness.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Jamie Lee Taete for The New York Times

UV damage: Some people are trying to avoid the sun altogether.

Most stylish: These 20 looks at the Cannes Film Festival stood out to our editors.

Finding community: Remote workers are going to co-working spaces instead of offices.

Get outside: Use this gear on your next run.

Advice from Wirecutter: Vacuum your outdoor furniture cushions.

Lives Lived: Brian Shul was an Air Force major who flew the world’s fastest plane. He died at 75.

 

SPORTS NEWS

N.B.A. quiz: Can you tell where the ball is going next? Play a passing game from The Times.

Detroit’s big bet: The Pistons hired Monty Williams as their new head coach, making him the highest-paid coach in the N.B.A., The Athletic reports.

Sister act: Two Russian sisters made their French Open debut, Matthew Futterman reports for The Times.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Adolfo Redaño

47 books, 47 adventures

If your summer months include time on the beach (or elsewhere) with a good book, Times journalists have recommendations, including:

Thrillers: Sarah Lyall likes “The Only Survivors” by Megan Miranda, in which friends commemorate an escape from drowning.

Romance: In “An Island Princess Starts a Scandal” by Adriana Herrera, a Venezuelan heiress has a few weeks to live her best Sapphic life before she must marry a dull man.

Audiobooks: Sebastian Modak recommends “Quantum Supremacy,” which explores how computers can change the future.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Linda Xiao for The New York Times
 
What to Watch

“Viva Las Vegas,” starring Elvis, is on TV tonight.

 
Where to Go
 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 2, 2023

 

Good morning. The Manhattan case isn’t Trump’s only legal problem.

 
 
 
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Donald TrumpSophie Park for The New York Times

More legal problems

In the coming months, Donald Trump’s mounting legal troubles could get even worse. At least three investigations could bring more criminal charges against him.

Federal officials are investigating both Trump’s handling of classified documents and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, culminating in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Separately, a grand jury in Georgia could charge Trump by September for his attempts to change the state’s election results. Any of these charges could carry prison time.

Charges are not guaranteed. “It is certainly possible that there will be more indictments,” my colleague Alan Feuer, who is covering the federal inquiries, told me. “But it is also certainly possible that there aren’t.”

A trial or a conviction also would not necessarily stop Trump from running for president. He might not be tried or convicted before the 2024 election. He could campaign from prison, as the socialist candidate Eugene Debs did in 1920. Some legal experts believe he could even try to govern from prison, should he win the presidency.

Trump is already the first president, current or former, to be charged with a crime. The Manhattan district attorney has accused him of an illegal scheme to cover up potential sex scandals in 2016. And last month, a jury found Trump liable in a civil case for $5 million for sexual abuse and defamation.

Today’s newsletter will focus on the three additional investigations to help you prepare for the potential news of the coming months.

Documents in Mar-a-Lago

The classified-documents case may be close to wrapping up. In August, an F.B.I. search at Trump’s home in Florida turned up more than 100 classified documents that were supposed to remain in the government’s possession. The Justice Department is trying to determine whether Trump hid documents after he had been served with a subpoena ordering him to return them.

One piece of potential evidence in the case, revealed this week: Prosecutors have a recording of Trump discussing a sensitive military document that he kept after leaving the White House and that he acknowledged was not previously declassified.

It is not that unusual for officials to misplace classified documents or keep them in their homes, often by accident. Such documents were found in the homes of President Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence. What is unusual in Trump’s case is his efforts to keep the documents after federal officials asked for them back. Those efforts may expose him to charges of obstruction of justice.

There are a few reasons prosecutors might not charge Trump. The underlying offense — the mishandling of classified documents — is often resolved without charges; officials return the files and prosecutors move on. And given that any charges against Trump could lead to a fierce political backlash, the Justice Department could deem the cost of prosecution too high.

(These Times graphics take you behind the scenes at Mar-a-Lago.)

The Jan. 6 attack

The other federal investigation is focused on Trump’s efforts to stay in power after he lost the 2020 election.

One part of the investigation may be focused on whether Trump incited violence on Jan. 6. On social media and at his rallies, he falsely claimed he won the 2020 election and demanded state officials change results in his favor. In late December 2020, Trump called for a “wild” protest on Jan. 6, 2021. At a rally that morning, he directed the crowd to “fight like hell” and march on the Capitol. After they became violent, he waited hours before asking them to go home.

Prosecutors have also charged hundreds of other suspects in the attack and may feel compelled to charge the person they see as the chief inciter.

Still, the potential case against Trump has weaknesses: He never explicitly ordered an attack or told his supporters to storm the Capitol. He did eventually encourage them to disperse.

Beyond Jan. 6, federal prosecutors could bring other charges related to Trump’s schemes to remain in the White House. “It is not only an enormous case to prove in terms of the number of witnesses and the complexities of gathering evidence — it is also legally very complicated,” Alan said.

Georgia

The inquiry in Georgia has a clearer timeline. The Fulton County district attorney, Fani Willis, has said that if a grand jury hands down charges, it will do so by September. A separate special grand jury, which could recommend charges but not indict, has already recommended multiple indictments.

The Georgia case could involve multiple defendants and could focus on racketeering charges over a scheme to undermine the election. Prosecutors could argue Trump and his team worked together to try to overturn the 2020 results, committing multiple crimes along the way.

Willis has a big piece of evidence: an audio recording in which Trump asked Georgia’s secretary of state to “find” nearly 12,000 votes to flip the state’s tally in his favor.

The biggest challenge for prosecutors could come down to proving Trump’s intent. For example, in the phone call, was Trump demanding that Georgia officials overturn the results, or was he asking them to check whether they failed to count legitimate votes? A trial could turn on those kinds of issues.

For more

 

THE LATEST NEWS

Debt Limit
 
War in Ukraine
 
Politics
  • Biden plans to pick Mandy Cohen, a former North Carolina health secretary, as the next C.D.C. director.
  • After speaking at the Air Force Academy graduation, Biden tripped and fell onstage. He stood up quickly.
  • A nonprofit group housing formerly homeless New Yorkers is suing hundreds of tenants for unpaid rent to expedite city aid.
  • Eric Adams, New York City’s mayor, knows the value of a good story. But some he tells about himself are almost impossible to verify.
 
Other Big Stories
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A suburb of Phoenix.Rebecca Noble for The New York Times
 
Opinions

Gangs are targeting Haiti’s law enforcement officials. Other countries need to intervene, Jean W. Pape writes.

New York’s mayor wants to use mandatory psychiatric treatment to address the mental health of homeless people. He should think more creatively about care, Daniel Bergner writes.

Here are columns by David French on Trump’s town hall and Jamelle Bouie on work requirements.

 
 

Save on everything The Times offers — with a new introductory offer.

Readers of The Morning value sharp reporting and analysis — and can discover much more of it with unlimited access to The Times. Subscribe now with an introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

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Two $25,000 “Transformers” sculptures.Zak Arctander for The New York Times

Yard décor: A professor put 10-foot “Transformers” statues in front of his Georgetown home. The neighbors weren’t happy.

Murder mystery: A nest was assaulted. The suspect: a sparrow.

Modern Love: A “Friends” episode helped one writer heal.

Co-authors: Mary Trump and E. Jean Carroll are writing a romance novel together.

Blisters? Try these hiking socks.

Advice from Wirecutter: Pick the best olive oil in the grocery store.

Lives Lived: Amitai Etzioni was a sociologist who advised U.S. presidents and was the father of communitarianism, a political middle ground between the left and the right. He died at 94.

 

SPORTS NEWS

Game 1: Denver cruised to an easy win over Miami in the N.B.A. Finals. Nikola Jokić looked unstoppable, The Athletic writes.

Churchill Downs: The home of the Kentucky Derby is changing its rules to keep vulnerable horses off the track after 12 died recently, The Times reports.

A return: Rick Pitino is overhauling St. John’s basketball. The Athletic went inside the program’s extreme makeover.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

A spelling champion

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Dev Shah Shuran Huang for The New York Times

Dev Shah, an eighth grader, won the Scripps National Spelling Bee with the word “psammophile” (a plant or animal that thrives in sandy areas). He won after 14 rounds including words like “probouleutic” and “zwitterion” and “schistorrhachis.”

The schwa — the “uh”-like sound that can be represented by any vowel in the English alphabet — was a stone-cold killer. It knocked out several finalists, as it routinely does.

Related: Can you spell like Dev? Play our game.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Drink
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Beatriz Da Costa for The New York Times

Start the weekend with a watermelon margarita.

 
Travel

If you’re in London, just ride the Elizabeth Line. It goes everywhere.

 
News Quiz

Did you follow the news this week? Take our quiz.

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German

P.S. Hurubie Meko, who has covered gun violence in New York and Missouri, is The Times’s new criminal justice reporter.

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 3, 2023

 

Good morning. As summer commences, so do our pronouncements for what it will be like. In branding, as in all things, moderation is key.

 
 
 
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María Jesús Contreras

A moment in the sun

The last episode of season eight of “Seinfeld” begins with George learning that the Yankees have given him a three-month severance package. He declares that he’s going to live the next three months to the fullest. He’ll read a book “from beginning to end. In that order.” He’ll play Frisbee golf. “This is gonna be my time,” he declares. “Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: the Summer of George!”

Setting intentions for summer is the low-stress, seasonal version of a New Year’s resolution. Summer is, or so we imagine, a blank canvas for aspiration. Unlike its punishing correlative (see: “the winter of our discontent”), summer contains the causes and conditions for living footloose and frivolously. Megan Thee Stallion ushered in the notion of the “Hot Girl Summer” with her 2019 song, which led to the hopeful but mostly unrealized “hot vax summer” of 2021. Sometimes a marketing campaign manages to appropriate naming rights — remember the summer of the Aperol spritz?

“Call it a collision between micro-trends and Mother Nature,” my colleague Callie Holtermann writes in The Times today of efforts to brand the season. Any eccentric pattern can become a designation: “‘Sharknado,’ Cronut … Is This the Summer of the Neolexic Portmanteau?” Slate asked in 2013. Hayley Phelan instructed Times readers on ways to make the summer of 2018 the summer of missing out, introducing the concept of JOMO (J for joy), FOMO’s “benevolent cousin.”

In branding summer, we relinquish some of the season’s intoxicating agency: Is it caftan summer? Then we know what we’re wearing. Margarita summer? There’s our drink order. My friend Natalie recently declared 2023 her “steamed shrimp drenched in Old Bay” summer. My friend Sarah claims she’s observing an “I’m not showering” summer. (I hope she’s kidding.)

I’m intrigued by the practice of historicizing our lives in real time, of giving our eras keywords and themes, containers in which to grow. Years as numbers seep into one another; branded eras maintain distinction. The more specific, the more memorable: This is the summer of taking the scenic route. Of swimming in lakes. The summer of dessert for dinner, the summer of saying “I’ll think about it.” The summer of thinking about it.

Why recruit a three-month period for branding? “For one, there’s the tantalizing possibility of calling it right,” Callie writes. But, as George found out after proclaiming the Summer of George, there’s also the danger of getting it wrong: His big plans go awry and he ends the summer in a hospital bed, lamenting the season that wasn’t. The lesson seems to be to keep your intentions manageable, and not to get too attached to the outcome.

What will this be the summer of for you? Tell me. Include your full name and location, and I might include your response in a future edition of The Morning.

 

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THE WEEK IN CULTURE

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Rajwa Al Saif.Royal Hashemite Court, via Reuters
 

THE LATEST NEWS

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The site of a train collision in the Indian state of Odisha on Saturday.Dibyangshu Sarkar/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
  • A train crash in India killed as many as 260 people and injured hundreds more.
  • Biden administration officials who negotiated the debt-limit deal acknowledge that they gave wins to Republicans on political talking points but say they won on substance.
  • U.S. employers added 339,000 jobs last month, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  • Thousands of people in Guam were without power, water and cellphone service more than a week after the strongest typhoon in at least two decades pummeled the island.
  • The Justice Department has declined to charge former Vice President Mike Pence in the discovery of classified documents at his home.
  • Saudi Arabia is offering huge paydays to soccer stars to lure them to the kingdom’s teams.
 
 

Save 50% on Games. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

CULTURE CALENDAR

🎮 “Street Fighter 6” (Out now): I spent hundreds upon hundreds of hours playing “Street Fighter 2” as a teenager and despite all that practice, I remained hapless, mashing buttons and occasionally busting out a “shoryuken” uppercut. Luckily for these old-man hands, the latest entry in the series simplifies the controls and introduces a single-player mode.

📚 “All the Sinners Bleed” (Tuesday): A Black sheriff in a rural Virginia town named Charon is on the trail of a killer. I’ll give it over to Stephen King here, who says in his review of this S.A. Cosby novel that “what sets this one apart, what gives it both grit and texture, is its unerring depiction of small-town rural life and the uneasy (and sometimes violent) interactions between Charon’s white and Black citizens.”

 

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RECIPE OF THE WEEK

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Ryan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andews.

Grilled Za’atar Chicken

Have you uncovered your grill yet? A terrific dish to start the season is my grilled za’atar chicken. The herby yogurt, spiked with garlic and loads of lemon, is used as both marinade and sauce, making the chicken especially piquant and tender. If you don’t have a grill, the chicken is just as good cooked in the broiler until the edges turn brown and crisp. Serve it with pita or another kind of flatbread, and a big, crunchy vegetable salad. Then put it on repeat all summer long.

 

REAL ESTATE

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Claire Weiss/Day19

900 square feet: How to make the most of it.

The hunt: A couple wanted a co-op in East Harlem or the Bronx for $250,000. Which one did they choose? Play our game.

What you get for $900,000: A 1720 Colonial in Newton, N.H.; a renovated farmhouse in Glen Haven, Colo.; or a three-bedroom condominium in Washington, D.C.

Rupert Murdoch: Check out his new bachelor pad.

 

LIVING

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Brian Rea

A morning listen: They dated for three years. One of them forgot it all.

Floral jewelry and natural ceramics: Try these recommendations from T magazine.

Cycle tracking: Syncing periods to workouts is becoming popular. But does it work?

Binge eating disorder: It’s the most common eating disorder in the U.S., but it is often overlooked.

Tick bites and heatstroke: Do you know how to survive summer hazards? Take our quiz.

 

ADVICE FROM WIRECUTTER

Keep mosquitoes away

Trying to stay bug-bite-free as warm weather arrives? Here’s a tip: Citronella does little to deter mosquitoes. To keep them away from your deck or patio, get a spatial repellent. These devices work like a diffuser to vaporize liquid repellent into the air, creating an odorless, bug-free zone. After 65 hours of testing, Wirecutter experts recommend the Thermacell E90. Its rechargeable nine-hour battery lasts long enough to keep a 300-square-foot area mosquito-free for your entire barbecue. And you don’t have to slather yourself in sticky spray. — Elissa Sanci

 

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

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The Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic shoots over Bam Adebayo of the Heat in the first game of the N.B.A. Finals. Jack Dempsey - Pool/Getty Images

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 of the N.B.A. Finals: The Heat will be looking to bounce back after a Game 1 loss in which they looked outmatched. But it won’t be easy: The Nuggets have been among the league’s best teams all year, fueled by the star play of the two-time M.V.P. Nikola Jokic. No playoff opponent has given Denver much trouble, and virtually everyone paying attention expects the team to win its first championship. Still, the Heat, a No. 8 seed, have been underestimated throughout the playoffs. And when Miami’s Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin are hot, they’re a dangerous duo. 8 p.m. Eastern tomorrow on ABC.

For more

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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NYT

Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

See the hardest Spelling Bee words from this week.

Take the news quiz to see how well you followed this week’s headlines.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. — Melissa

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 4, 2023

 

To get you ready for summer, I’ve asked my colleague Marguerite Preston to offer advice on spending time outside in the months ahead. As always, today’s newsletter also has news and culture coverage. — David Leonhardt

 
 

By Marguerite Preston

Good morning. Make your cookout, picnic or beach trip a little easier.

 
 
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Sean Dong

Time to relax

It’s June. The weather forecast is starting to look like summer, and I’m looking forward to my favorite sunny-day activity: eating outside.

I can think of few things more leisurely than dining sprawled out on the grass or around a picnic table. Grazing on potato chips and watermelon. Sharing salads out of Tupperware. Downing burgers seconds after they come off the grill.

Or at least, that’s what meals outside should be like. It’s a lot less pleasant if you’re swatting away mosquitoes or struggling to ignite a grill.

As the editor of kitchen coverage for Wirecutter, The Times’s recommendation site, I spend a lot of time thinking about the best gear to make cooking and entertaining easier. So while I dream about perfect outdoor meals, I also know what it takes to prepare.

While all you really need to have a good time is good food and good company, you’ll enjoy it more if you have a comfortable place to sit and enough ice to keep the drinks cold. So in today’s newsletter, I’ll give you tips for a little preparation work that can make your summer more satisfying.

Prep the grill

If you like grilling, it’s important to give your grill a once-over before the first big cookout of the season. Ideally you should deep-clean your grill at the end of the summer, but if you missed doing it last year, now is the time.

A clean grill means you’ll always be ready to cook as soon as the thought of a burger pops into your head. And you’ll avoid disasters like a grease pan overflowing all over your patio, or worse, catching on fire.

For gas grills, remove the grates, burner hoods and grease pan, and scrub them with hot, soapy water and a scouring pad. For charcoal grills, sweep or vacuum out any dry ash, then scour the grates and interior.

As cookout season continues, treat your grill like any other cooking implement and clean it after every use. Scrape the grates, then wipe them with a wet rag and brush them with a layer of vegetable oil — effectively seasoning them as you would a cast-iron pan — to keep them more nonstick and rustproof. Dump the ash from your charcoal grill or empty the grease pan from your gas grill.

Picnics made easy

Here’s my secret to pulling off impromptu picnics, even at the end of a workday: Keep a dedicated bag packed with all the picnicware essentials. When inspiration strikes, all I have to worry about is gathering the food and drinks.

I use one of Wirecutter’s favorite tote bags, the L.L. Bean Boat and Tote, in the largest size. It stands up on its own in grass or sand, and it’s easy to see everything inside.

What do I put inside? A picnic blanket, of course. I also pack reusable outdoor dinnerware. Wirecutter has a guide full of gorgeous options, and my favorites are the light, bright Xenia Taler bamboo plates and Falcon Enamelware’s rainbow of tumblers.

You’ll need napkins and utensils. I’ve forgotten those and regretted it as I wiped my hands on the picnic blanket. Bug spray is also essential. Throw in nonperishable condiments, or perhaps a tiny jar of salt.

Beach day

Much as I love to spend the summer dining outdoors, I also look forward to escaping my neighborhood for the beach in the coming months. For visits to the shore, you could just grab the same picnic bag and some towels and chairs. But if you’re going to a place with zero shade, it’s a good idea to assemble a supplemental sun protection stash.

At a minimum, check the expiration date on last year’s sunscreen and replace it if you need to. At Wirecutter, we’ve tested over 80 options and found four we think are great. You might also want a spare pair of cheap sunglasses to keep in your bag.

This is going to be the year that I embrace big, silly hats and invest in a beach shade that actually stays up. That way, I can comfortably linger until the last bite of potato salad is gone.

For more

 

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NEWS

India Train Crash
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Recovery operations in eastern India on Sunday.Atul Loke for The New York Times
  • Rescue efforts are finished after Friday’s train crash in the eastern state of Odisha. The death toll is at least 275.
  • Officials said the crash involved two passenger trains and an idled freight train, and they were investigating signal failure as a cause.
  • The trains were carrying more than 2,200 people. The Indian rail system transports more than eight billion passengers per year. Here’s what we know.
 
Politics
 
Other Big Stories
 

FROM OPINION

Justice John Roberts’s Supreme Court has shown contempt for other governing institutions. It should earn some contempt of its own, Josh Chafetz argues.

Beth Raymer’s father celebrated his homelessness. Now, she writes, she considers it an “adaptive delusion.”

Here are columns by Ross Douthat on Kevin McCarthy and Maureen Dowd on Jackie Kennedy.

 
 

The Sunday question: Did Biden win the debt-ceiling debate?

Despite his claims that Republicans’ demands were “wacko,” Biden yielded, setting up Republicans to earn back their credibility on fiscal matters, Liz Peek writes for The Hill. The goal of the negotiations, however, was to make compromises, Matt Bai writes in The Washington Post. “By that standard,” he argues, “Biden couldn’t have done much better.”

 
 

Save 50% on Games. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

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An ad hoc chair made from tires.Avi Kovacevich

Standout design: Bees, seeds and metal were used in the New York Design Festival.

No shame, no sorrow: It is common in Mauritania to divorce many times. When they do, the women celebrate.

Life-changing honesty: Tina Turner’s openness about her abusive marriage inspired other women to leave theirs.

Horezu pottery: Can these old-world ceramics survive modern tastes?

Money back: They spent $8,500 on refundable plane tickets, but the airline offered them flight credits.

Vows: He thought the date would be quick. It was so long he called in sick the next day.

Lives lived: Cynthia Weil formed one of the most potent songwriting teams of the 1960s and beyond with her husband. They wrote lyrics for hits by the Righteous Brothers, the Animals and Dolly Parton. Weil died at 82.

 

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ADVICE FOR LIFE

Find a Father’s Day present in our gift guide.

Visit Iceland, but read these tips from the first lady before you go.

Fill in the blank: “I am _____.” How you answer can reveal where you’re from.

 

BOOKS

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Larry Sultan

Summer in America: A new book of photographs captures swimming in public pools.

“The Late Americans”: This novel is about envy, sex and ennui in grad school.

Our editors’ picks: “The Worst Woman in London,” an angsty historical romance, and eight other books.

Times best sellers: Nora Roberts’s latest thriller, “Identity,” appears in the top spot on the hardcover fiction list.

 

THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE

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Illustration by Jacqueline Tam

The California issue: Can the West learn to live between extremes?

Heartland makeover: How do you change a place as polluted and unequal as the San Joaquin Valley?

Silicon Valley: See inside the latest hacker houses.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch For
  • Officials from OPEC, Russia and other countries are meeting this weekend to weigh whether to cut production amid an oil-price slump.
  • Three Republicans are expected to enter the presidential race this week: Chris Christie, Mike Pence and Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota.
  • Vice President Kamala Harris will host a meeting of U.S. and Caribbean leaders in the Bahamas on Thursday.
  • Biden will host Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, at the White House on Thursday.
  • In sports, the women’s French Open final is on Saturday, as is the running of the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.
 
What to Cook This Week
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Roasted salmon with sweet and sour rhubarb.David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Easy recipes can help make you more sure-handed behind the grill, Emily Weinstein writes. Her recommendations for weeknight dinners include grilled chicken legs and, if you’re not grilling this week, rhubarb roasted salmon and spaghetti with fried eggs.

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

Take the news quiz to see how well you followed the week’s headlines.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 5, 2023

 

Good morning. Today we’re covering the new political engagement of younger adults, an Indian train crash and a sonic boom.

 
 
 
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A polling station on Staten Island in 2022.Anna Watts for The New York Times

Young and active

In the 2018 elections — the midterms of Donald Trump’s presidency — turnout among younger voters surged. Almost twice as many people in their late 20s and early 30s voted that year as had done so in the midterms four years earlier. And they strongly backed Democratic candidates, helping the party retake control of Congress.

At the time, it was not clear whether the newfound political engagement of younger adults would last beyond Trump’s presidency. So far, though, it has — and it’s emerging as one of the biggest stories in American politics and a major advantage for the Democratic Party.

After each election, the data analysts at Catalist, a progressive research company, publish a post-mortem report based on months of analysis of election returns, voter files and other sources. A central theme of the latest report, covering the 2022 midterms, was that “Gen Z and millennial voters had exceptional levels of turnout,” as Catalist’s experts wrote. In the 14 states with heavily contested elections last year, turnout among younger voters rose even higher than it was in 2018.

This chart, by my colleague Ashley Wu, offers a nice way to see the trends:

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Source: Catalist | By The New York Times

Since 2014, turnout among people born before 1950 has declined, mostly because more have died or been unable to get to the polls. (Experts refer to this dynamic euphemistically as “exiting the electorate.”) Turnout among middle-aged people rose, and turnout among young voters rose even more sharply.

Older Americans still vote at higher rates than younger Americans, but the gap has narrowed substantially over the past two decades.

Fear, not love

Why? Many younger voters have become more politically active because they fear for the country’s future. Those on the left — who are a majority of younger voters — worry about climate change, abortion access, the extremism of the Republican Party and more. Those on the right worry about secularization, political correctness, illegal immigration and more.

“What seems to be driving younger voters to the polls isn’t love, but anger,” Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report has written.

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Source: Catalist | By The New York Times

Contrary to conventional wisdom, younger voters throughout U.S. history have not automatically been liberal. In 1984, Americans under 30 strongly backed Ronald Reagan’s re-election. In 2000, they split almost evenly between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

It’s true that people often become somewhat more conservative as they age (and millennials are following this pattern, as my colleague Nate Cohn explained). But the more significant factor is that generations tend to have distinct ideologies. People are shaped by the political zeitgeist during their adolescence, as research by Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman and Jonathan Auerbach has shown.

Americans who came of age during the Depression and New Deal, for example, leaned Democratic for their entire lives. Those who grew up during the Reagan era (many of whom are part of Generation X) lean to the right. In recent decades, major news events, including the Iraq war, the financial crisis, Barack Obama’s presidency and the chaos of Trump’s presidency, appear to have created a progressive generation.

For four straight national elections dating back to 2014, Democrats have won at least 60 percent of the vote among 18- to 29-year-olds. It’s longest such run of success since at least the 1970s, when Catalist’s data begins.

The pattern offers reason for Democratic optimism. Millennials and Generation Z are growing parts of the electorate, while older, more conservative generations are gradually exiting the electorate. Even in the short term, the age dynamics matter: A Republican will have a slightly harder time winning the presidency in 2024 than in 2020. In the long term, Republicans will struggle to win national elections unless they can appeal to more Americans born since 1980.

Still a contest

With all this said, a coming period of Democratic dominance is not guaranteed. The party has other weaknesses that could eventually alienate more millennial and Gen Z voters.

Another theme of the Catalist report is that working-class voters across races have recently drifted toward the Republican Party. Many of these less affluent voters seem bothered by the increasing social liberalism of the Democratic Party. Many younger voters are also not sure which party offers more promising economic policies.

These concerns help explain why Florida and Texas have remained solidly Republican, to the disappointment of Democrats. The chart below compares the Democratic Party’s performance by class and race in the past two midterm elections when a Democrat was in the White House.

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Source: Catalist | Asian includes Pacific Islanders. | By The New York Times

I realize that the combination of trends is complex. The Democratic lean of Americans under 40, combined with their recent increase in voter turnout, has become a huge advantage for the party. Yet not all these voters are committed Democrats. Many identify as independents and are more conservative than the highly educated, affluent officials who dominate the Democratic Party and progressive groups.

In the competitive world of American politics, Democrats are in a stronger position than Republicans among younger voters, but the contest is not over.

More on 2024

 

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THE LATEST NEWS

India Train Crash
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The site of a three-way collision.Atul Loke for The New York Times
 
International
  • The Chinese authorities punished two students who gave out rainbow flags. The students say Xi Jinping is cracking down on gay and transgender activism.
 
Media
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Ozempic can offer new insight into the nature of pleasure and addictions, Maia Szalavitz explains.

Here are columns by Nick Kristof on children living longer in Africa and Farhad Manjoo on artificial intelligence.

 
 

Save 50% on Games. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

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Martinus EvansDesiree Rios for The New York Times

Slow and loving it: This back-of-the-packer wants to make running everyone’s sport.

Sonic boom: The loud noise heard across Washington, D.C., yesterday was caused by a military flight.

Metropolitan Diary: A thrift shop find she couldn’t afford.

News quiz: How well did you follow the news last week? Take our quiz. The average score was 8.5.

Grill tools: Pick the right spatula and tongs.

Advice from Wirecutter: Find the best patio furniture.

Lives Lived: Kaija Saariaho was a Finnish composer who rose to the top of contemporary classical music. She died at 70.

 

SPORTS NEWS

Miami evens series: The Miami Heat won Game 2 of the N.B.A. Finals 111-108 last night. The Athletic explains what worked for the Heat.

Nikola Jokic: The Nuggets center may be the best player in the N.B.A., The Times’s Sopan Deb writes. He avoids the spotlight, but Denver still loves him.

Faithful crowd: French fans are uniting behind French players at, naturally, the French Open, The Times’s Matthew Futterman reports.

She’s here: Rose Zhang, 20, turned pro last Thursday. By Sunday, she had her first L.P.G.A. Tour win, The Athletic reports.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

Back to the cinema

Movie theaters are trying to lure back customers with perks like heated lounge chairs, buttons to summon waiters and seats that move with the movie’s action, Jane Margolies writes. But these changes can cost you: Movies on extra-large screens or in 3-D cost as much as $20.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Pasta alla Paolina with cauliflower.David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Cauliflower pasta layers flavor upon flavor.

 
Where to Go

Take in the spectacular shows of Iceberg Alley off the eastern coast of Canada.

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. The Times’s Juliet Macur won a Deadline Club award for reporting on an Afghan goalkeeper forced to flee her country.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 6, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering an Oklahoma school decision, a dam attack in Ukraine and Prince Harry.

 
 
 
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A cathedral in Oklahoma City.Nathan J. Fish/The Oklahoman, via USA Today Network

Religious and public

Religious conservatives often lament they have been on the losing end of recent social trends, and they’re not entirely wrong about that. Same-sex marriage has become legal nationwide. Church attendance is down. About 30 percent of Americans identify as having no religion.

But there are also several ways in which organized religion has been on a political winning streak. Abortion is the most obvious example, and yesterday brought another instance in a different realm: education.

State officials in Oklahoma approved the local Roman Catholic archdiocese’s request to operate a public charter school. It will be the first explicitly religious public school in the U.S. in modern times, experts say. Supporters of the school hope to use it as a test case to take to the Supreme Court and win a clear right for charter schools to offer religious instruction.

Charter schools are public schools, financed by taxpayer dollars, but given the freedom to operate more flexibly than traditional schools. Nationwide, 8 percent of public schools are charter schools. Advocates of religious charter schools argue that church groups should have the same right to manage schools as other organizations.

Opponents argue that religious charter schools erase the separation between church and state by using government funds to support religious instruction. Over time, opponents say, the growth of church-affiliated charter schools could starve traditional schools of funding and lead to increased segregation of children along religious lines. Rachel Laser, the head of Americans United for Separation of Church and State, criticized the Oklahoma decision as “a sea change for American democracy” and promised to file legal action against it.

The Oklahoma board that oversees charter schools voted 3-2 to approve the new school, which will be called St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School. It will focus on students in rural areas. You can read more about the decision in this story by my colleague Sarah Mervosh.

And at the court

Whatever happens with the Oklahoma case, the Supreme Court’s Republican-appointed majority has already expanded the reach and influence of religious groups. “The Supreme Court has over the last few years issued an extraordinary series of decisions expanding the role of religion in public life, sometimes at the expense of other values, like gay rights and access to contraception,” Adam Liptak, who covers the court for The Times, told me.

Between the 1950s and mid-1980s, the court sided with religious interests roughly half the time, an academic study found. Since John Roberts became chief justice in 2005, the share has jumped to more than 80 percent. By some measures, Roberts and the five other current conservative justices appear to be the six most pro-religion justices in the court’s history.

The kinds of cases the court is hearing have changed, too, Adam notes. When Earl Warren was chief justice in the 1950s and 1960s, all of the rulings in favor of religion benefited minority groups or dissenting practitioners. In the Roberts court, the winners tend to be mainstream Christians.

In cases over the past several years, the court has ruled that:

  • A Catholic social services agency in Philadelphia can defy city rules and refuse to work with same-sex couples who apply to care for foster children.

Up next

In coming weeks, as the court’s current term winds down, the justices are expected to rule on two more religion cases.

One considers whether a website designer can refuse to work with same-sex couples on the grounds that forcing her to celebrate same-sex marriages would violate her free-speech rights. The justices’ comments during oral arguments suggested they were likely to side with the designer, a decision that would effectively prioritize religious rights and free speech over L.G.B.T.Q. equality. It would also suggest that L.G.B.T.Q. rights were more vulnerable than some other forms of civil rights.

In the second case, the Supreme Court seems similarly poised to rule for religion, although the oral argument suggested that the ruling might be narrow. In that case, a postal worker has asked for the right not to work on Sunday — his Sabbath — without losing his job.

For more: Adam Liptak explained the academic research about the court’s new pro-religion stance in this column.

 

THE LATEST NEWS

War in Ukraine
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An image taken from video of the breached dam.milinfolive, via Telegram
 
2024 Campaign
 
Politics
 
Business
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Airline mergers between big companies, like the one planned between JetBlue and Spirit, are making airline travel more miserable, Bill Saporito writes.

Here are columns by Paul Krugman on Ukraine’s counteroffensive and Michelle Goldberg on anti-social-justice politics.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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A kestrel.

Birding mystery: What happened to this flashy falcon?

“The Compassion Guy”: He devoted his life to kindness. His killer showed none.

Close cousin: An ancient species used sophisticated rituals like burying the dead in caves.

Shampoo: Is it bad to wash your hair every day?

MacBooks and headsets: See all the new products Apple announced yesterday.

Advice from Wirecutter: Get rid of your old electronics safely.

Lives Lived: Andrew Bellucci was a chef in New York City who achieved fame for his pizza. Then he lost his job and reputation when an old crime caught up with him. He died at 59.

 

SPORTS NEWS

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A first-round match in Paris.Pete Kiehart for The New York Times

Canvas of clay: The French Open courts tell the story of each match. See more images from The Times.

Las Vegas inches closer: The Golden Knights beat the Florida Panthers 7-2 in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final, The Athletic reports.

On the move? Kyrie Irving has asked LeBron James to join the Dallas Mavericks, according to The Athletic.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

Why they act

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Alex NewellThea Traff for The New York Times

What draws an actor to the stage? The Times spoke with three dozen Tony-nominated performers about their passion for the profession. “An actor gets to explore all the human desire that is out there,” Wendell Pierce, star of “Death of a Salesman,” said. Read more of their quotes, with portraits by the photographer Thea Traff.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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A weeknight-friendly spaghetti meal.David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.
 
What to Read

The historian Martha Hodes recounts being held hostage on an airplane in 1970.

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. Elena Shao, a climate fellow, is joining The Times’s graphics department as an editor.

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 7, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering a stunning golf merger, wildfire smoke and the James Beard Awards.

 
 
 
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A LIV golf tournament.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Money wins

After the Saudi government created an upstart professional golf tour in 2021 to compete with the PGA — the world’s most prestigious tour, based in the U.S. — top PGA executives set out to destroy the new venture.

They banned golfers who signed up with the Saudi tour, known as LIV Golf, from PGA events and put intense pressure on other golfers not to join LIV. PGA executives also complained to members of Congress about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record. Anybody ignoring that record, said Jay Monahan, the PGA commissioner, was “living under a rock.”

Monahan went so far as to suggest that LIV golfers were betraying the victims of the 9/11 attacks (an allusion to the fact that most of the attackers were Saudi citizens). “Have you ever had to apologize for being a member of the PGA Tour?” Monahan asked on national television.

It was all part of a campaign to undermine LIV, even if doing so required damaging the reputations of leading golfers.

Then, yesterday morning, to almost everybody’s surprise, the PGA reversed its position. It offered little explanation for the turnabout.

The deal

The PGA announced that it would merge with LIV and accept a large investment from a fund run by Saudi Arabia’s government. Yasir Al-Rumayyan, who runs the fund, will become the chairman of the combined tour, while Monahan will become the chief executive. As part of the deal, the Saudi investment fund will have the right of first refusal for future investments in the tour, allowing it to expand its stake.

The merger is the latest sign that money can overwhelm almost any other force in professional sports. “The PGA Tour succumbed to the Saudis,” Brody Miller of The Athletic wrote. “In the end, Jay Monahan and the PGA Tour had a price tag.” Monahan and his fellow executives evidently decided they would rather join forces with the Saudi government than continue to bid against it for golfers.

The winners from the deal include those golfers who had left the PGA for LIV, and typically received enormous payments for having done so. Two days ago, the PGA was still treating them as traitors who were trying to ruin professional golf. Yesterday, they were welcomed back.

“Awesome day today,” tweeted Phil Mickelson, one of the LIV golfers, alongside a red-cheeked smiling emoji. Brooks Koepka — another LIV golfer, whose victory at a major event last month, including golfers from both tours, seemed to legitimize the Saudi tour — mocked a golf announcer who had criticized LIV.

Golfers who had remained with the PGA Tour, by contrast, reacted bitterly. Some of them had turned down multimillion-dollar deals from LIV, as Monahan and the other PGA leaders had urged.

Rory McIlroy had reportedly turned down a $300 million contract. Afterward, McIlroy joined the P.R. campaign against LIV saying “there’s no room in the golf world” for it. Of the golfers who left, like Mickleson, McIlroy said, “Their best days are behind them.”

Wesley Bryan, another PGA golfer, wrote on Twitter, “I feel betrayed, and will not be able to trust anyone within the corporate structure of the PGA Tour for a very long time.” Collin Morikawa, ranked 18th in the world, suggested it was “the longest day in golf.” Athletes in other sports also took to social media to point out how angry the PGA golfers must be: They were effectively punished for their loyalty.

Scott Van Pelt, a longtime ESPN anchor, summed up the frustration in his own tweet:

One of the few people who accurately predicted the outcome of this saga was Donald Trump, who remains close to Saudi officials and whose clubs hosted several LIV events.

“All of those golfers that remain ‘loyal’ to the very disloyal PGA,” Trump wrote in an online post last summer, “will pay a big price when the inevitable merger with LIV comes, and you get nothing but a big ‘thank you’ from PGA officials.”

Now Trump stands to benefit from the merger. The PGA Tour suddenly seems more likely to hold events at his courses.

For more

  • “The merger represented the most stunning success to date of Saudi Arabia’s ambition to become a player in global sports,” The Times’s Alan Blinder wrote. It is “nothing less than an attempt to seize control of an entire sport.”
  • The deal is the latest example of “sportswashing” — when an authoritarian government tries to burnish its image through sports. Saudi Arabia stepped up its efforts after its apparent 2019 murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a dissident.
  • The Biden administration has long pressed Saudi Arabia on human rights abuses, including Khashoggi’s killing. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Saudi Arabia today to meet with the kingdom’s leaders, Al Jazeera reports.
  • If you want to understand why the Saudi government is so interested in golf, we recommend this behind-the-scenes piece by Brendan Quinn of The Athletic. (Note: All Access Times subscribers can read all Athletic stories.)
  • For golf fans, the deal has an upside, Miller wrote in The Athletic: “Having the best golfers split into different leagues and only playing each other in the majors four weeks a year was good for nobody.”
  • Saudi Arabia is also expanding it’s reach in soccer. Karim Benzema, one of the sport’s top players, agreed to join a Saudi team yesterday.
 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Wildfires
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Smoke above Queens.Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times
  • New York City had the worst air quality of any major city in the world for some of last night. These maps show where the smoke is expected to travel.
  • Experts recommend staying indoors when possible and avoiding strenuous exercise. Masks offer some protection, but not much.
 
Ukraine Dam
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Evacuees from Kherson.Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times
 
Politics
 
Climate
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Love doesn’t pay the bills. Your work is not your calling. The rhetoric that a job is a passion obfuscates reality: It is an economic contract, Simone Stolzoff argues.

Here are columns by Jamelle Bouie on the Supreme Court and unions and Thomas Friedman on Middle Eastern diplomacy.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Dr. Sandra Hazelip, left, and Eleanor Hamby.Christopher Lee for The New York Times

It’s never too late: To travel the world with your best friend.

Fugitive heiress: She fled the F.B.I. and has captivated Brazil. Read about her in The Washington Post.

Apple headset: Our columnist is skeptical after trying the high-tech goggles.

Lives Lived: Françoise Gilot began an affair with Pablo Picasso when she was 22 and he was 62. She became an accomplished painter and did something no other important lover of his had ever done: She walked out. She died at 101.

 

SPORTS NEWS

Huge recruit: Lionel Messi could join Major League Soccer in a matter of days. Multiple organizations, including the league and the Inter Miami team, along with Apple and Adidas, are preparing a huge financial package, The Athletic reports.

Political tension: At the French Open, Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus waited at the net to shake hands with Elina Svitolina of Ukraine, The Times’s Matthew Futterman writes.

A return to football: The Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who went into cardiac arrest during a game, fully participated at practice yesterday, The Athletic reports.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

The best in dining

The James Beard Awards — the Oscars of the culinary world — announced their 2023 winners.

Outstanding Restaurant: Friday Saturday Sunday in Philadelphia. The restaurant reinvented itself after the pandemic by switching to a carefully crafted tasting menu, The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote.

Outstanding Chef: Rob Rubba, who created a mostly plant-based menu at Oyster Oyster in Washington, D.C. “Few chefs have more fun getting us to eat our vegetables than Rob Rubba,” The Washington Post wrote.

The winners also included bakeries, bars and regional chefs and restaurants around the U.S. Browse the full list.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Kelly Marshall for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Roscoe Betsill. Prop Stylist: Paige Hicks.

These shrimp tacos come together in 30 minutes.

 
What to Read

The actor Elliot Page reflects on his gender transition in the brutally honest memoir “Pageboy.”

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 8, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering wildfire smoke in the U.S., a Trump investigation and Lionel Messi.

 
 
 
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Crossing the Brooklyn Bridge yesterday.Dave Sanders for The New York Times

Red haze

Residents of the western U.S. and Canada have become grimly accustomed to smoke-clogged air from wildfires during the summer months. This week, the problem has spread to the Midwest and the East Coast.

New York City was filled with reddish haze yesterday, with its worst air quality on record. A Broadway matinee was interrupted when its star had difficulty breathing, and some nighttime shows were canceled. Pro sports teams in both New York and Philadelphia postponed their games. In Binghamton, N.Y., a meteorologist said that the area around him “looks like Mars” and “smells like cigars.” In Toronto, residents awoke this week to find a thick layer of ash near open windows.

The immediate cause is a series of wildfires in Quebec and Ontario, which began burning weeks ago. The larger cause is the same one damaging the air quality in the West: a sharp increase in wildfires during the 21st century, caused partly by the hotter temperatures and drier conditions created by climate change.

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Source: Canadian Forest Service | Data is estimated from satellite-derived hotspots. | By The New York Times

Bill McKibben, the writer and environmental activist, lives in Vermont and argued that the Canadian fires have given millions of North Americans a sense of what other people already know. “Today is our chance to understand what it really feels like every day on a fossil-fueled planet, for the billions of people unlucky enough to really bear the brunt,” McKibben wrote on Substack. “My eyes are stinging a bit from the smoke, but I’ve never seen more clearly.”

My personal version of McKibben’s point is that I had a headache much of yesterday while working in downtown Washington. It reminded me of a similar headache when I first visited Beijing, in 2010, and inhaled the pollution there. (Here is advice from The Times about pollution-related headaches.)

The rest of today’s newsletter is broken into three parts: a selection of the best coverage about what’s happening, from The Times and elsewhere; a forecast for the next few days; and advice about how to deal with the poor air quality.

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Jersey City seen from Lower Manhattan.Dave Sanders for The New York Times

The details

  • The effects of climate change are apparent across the U.S.: Oceans are warmer than they have been in decades, and in Puerto Rico, the heat index reached 125 degrees.

What’s next

The hazy, unhealthy air in New York City is expected to spread south and west across the U.S. today, enveloping millions more Americans.

As of this morning, Philadelphia had the largest concentrations of fine particulate matter. The authorities issued a “code red” air quality alert. Washington’s air — officially “unhealthy” — was only slightly better.

By Friday, the worst pollution is expected to move away from the Northeast.

“The weather pattern may finally break down this weekend, and by Sunday the winds may shift, providing relief from the smoke,” Judson Jones, a meteorologist and Times reporter, wrote. “Relief could come even earlier if progress is made on putting out the wildfires.” But Judson added that wildfire season had only just started, which means haze could return this summer.

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The view from the Brooklyn Heights Promenade.Earl Wilson/The New York Times

Advice

  • Wildfire smoke is “like tobacco smoke without the nicotine,” one expert said. Here’s a guide to keep yourself and your family healthy.
  • The pollution can worsen asthma, lung disease and heart conditions, New York officials warned. N95 masks, worn snugly, can help.
  • Air purifiers are the best way to keep your home clean. If you don’t have one, turn on your air-conditioner — and keep your windows closed.
  • Kevin Yamamura, a Times editor in Sacramento, where such smoky conditions often persist for weeks, recommends keeping an air quality app handy, like this one from the E.P.A. When the gauge is above 150, it’s a sign that you should not exercise outside. (It exceeded 400 in New York yesterday.)
  • Pets are also vulnerable. Jerry Klein, a veterinarian, advised dog owners to keep the bathroom walks brief: “You want to be in and out.”
 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Trump Investigation
 
Politics
  • Mike Pence criticized Trump over the Jan. 6 attack. “President Trump’s reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol,” he said at a campaign event.
  • Doug Burgum, the Republican governor of North Dakota and one of the richest men in the state, announced a campaign for president.
  • Gov. Ron DeSantis’s decision to fly migrants to California proves he’s betting provocation will help him win in 2024, Shane Goldmacher writes.
  • A rebellion among far-right Republicans over Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s debt deal has paralyzed the House. Representatives are barring their own party from voting on bills.
  • House Republicans canceled a vote to hold the F.B.I. director in contempt after he agreed to share a document containing an old, unsubstantiated bribery allegation against President Biden.
  • Louisiana lawmakers passed a bill banning transition care for transgender children.
 
Media
 
Other Big Stories
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Thousands of people have been displaced in southern Ukraine.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times
 
Opinions

Biden lacked rhetorical presence during the debt negotiations. He made up for it with potent results, Matthew Yglesias writes.

Here are columns by Bret Stephens on the Ukraine war and Charles Blow on anti-L.G.B.T.Q. legislation.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Cliff divers performing at Casa Bonita. David Williams for The New York Times

1970s vibes: A famed Colorado restaurant is back, complete with cliff divers and faux gold mines.

Bathroom cleaning: Protect your tiles and grout instead of trying to rescue them.

Advice from Wirecutter: Pick the best camping tent.

Lives Lived: The pianist George Winston helped define new age music, but he liked to call his style “rural folk piano.” He died at 74.

 

SPORTS NEWS

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Lionel MessiFranck Fife/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Lionel Messi: Soccer’s most coveted free agent chose to play in Miami, rejecting a monumental offer from Saudi Arabia, The Times writes. Ticket prices surged across Major League Soccer, The Athletic reports.

N.B.A. history: Nikola Jokic became the first player to record 30 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists in a Finals game. He achieved the feat during Denver’s Game 3 win last night, The Athletic writes.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

Freeing the body

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Dancing inmates.Michael Tyrone Delaney for The New York Times

Over the past decade, California has been expanding arts programs in its state prisons. Visual arts and music are popular, but an unexpected art form is taking off at a few prisons: dance. “We were going against a whole culture that defines dance as weak,” said Dimitri Gales, a former inmate who started a dance class at a prison in Los Angeles County.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Mediterranean chicken with creamy feta salad.Bobbi Lin for The New York Times

This Greek chicken with cucumber-feta salad is perfect for summer.

 
What to Listen to

The rocker John Mellencamp has a new album: “Orpheus Descending.”

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 9, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering the indictment of Trump, more wildfire smoke and a crown jewel of comedy.

 
 
 
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Donald Trump in January.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Another indictment

Donald Trump has been indicted again. He is now the first president, former or current, to be charged with a federal crime.

The charges stem from an investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents that he kept after he left the White House. Federal officials tried to get those documents back, and Trump is accused of resisting their efforts and trying to keep the files for himself.

Trump faces at least seven criminal counts, my Times colleagues reported. They include willfully retaining national defense secrets in violation of the Espionage Act, making false statements and conspiracy to obstruct justice. The Justice Department has not confirmed or announced the charges.

It is not unusual for federal officials to misplace or accidentally hold on to classified documents. Such files were found in the homes of President Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence. What is unusual in Trump’s case are his apparent efforts to keep the documents as federal officials asked him to return them.

Trump described the charges and investigation as part of a political witch hunt. “I’m an innocent man,” he said in a video last night. “I’m an innocent person.”

Today’s newsletter will explain the case and whether the charges could affect Trump’s third run for president, and offer a selection of the best coverage of the indictment, from The Times and elsewhere.

The case

The charges go back to January 2021, when Trump left office and some documents were packed in boxes shipped from the White House to his Florida home, Mar-a-Lago. The National Archives, which keeps presidential records, tried for much of the following year to get back the documents, which were considered government property. In January 2022, Trump turned over 15 boxes of material after what his lawyers claimed was a “diligent search.”

But Trump did not turn over everything in his possession. In August, an F.B.I. search at Mar-a-Lago turned up more than 100 classified documents.

In a court filing, the Justice Department noted that in just hours of searching, the F.B.I. recovered “twice as many documents with classification markings” as Trump’s search did — casting doubt on how much he cooperated with the government’s pursuit of the records. Since then, the Justice Department has been investigating the extent to which Trump tried to hide the documents, even after the government served him with a subpoena to return them.

Trump has argued that he was allowed to keep the files because he declassified them before taking them home. But officials appear to have a recording of Trump discussing a sensitive military document and acknowledging that it was not declassified. Investigators have also interviewed Mar-a-Lago staff and reviewed security camera footage to build their case.

Beyond that, we know relatively little about what information the documents contain. Dozens taken from Mar-a-Lago had classified markings.

There is another important detail: Jack Smith, the special counsel overseeing the case, secured an indictment against Trump in Miami, not Washington. Florida, a state that Trump won twice, could provide a jury that is friendlier to him than a Democratic stronghold like Washington.

What’s next

Trump is expected to be arraigned in Miami on Tuesday, at which point prosecutors will probably release details of the charges.

In the meantime, Trump’s campaign is already fund-raising off the indictment. The charges do not prevent him from running for president. He might not be tried or convicted before the 2024 election. He could campaign, and even try to govern, from prison, according to legal experts.

“In a week in which three other Republicans — Mike Pence, Chris Christie and Doug Burgum — declared their 2024 candidacies, the indictment of Trump guarantees he will completely dominate the political conversation,” wrote my colleague Shane Goldmacher, a national political reporter.

Trump’s standing in the Republican primary actually improved after he was charged this year in New York for a scheme to cover up potential sex scandals in his 2016 run for president. The trial in that case is scheduled for 2024.

Republican lawmakers signaled their continued support for Trump. “Sad day for America,” Representative Jim Jordan, an Ohio Republican and longtime Trump ally, tweeted last night. “God Bless President Trump.”

Trump faces two more criminal investigations. Another federal inquiry led by Smith is examining Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. And a prosecutor in Georgia is investigating Trump’s election interference in that state. Charges could come from those investigations in the coming weeks or months.

For more

  • Trump assailed Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information. Now, the issue is sure to be central in his re-election campaign, Peter Baker writes.
  • Trump was sitting by the pool with advisers at his New Jersey golf club when the indictment call came.
  • Smith was selected as special counsel for his experience with high-stakes cases against politicians. He ran the Justice Department unit that investigates public corruption.
  • A Times investigation shows how Trump stored classified documents in high-traffic areas at Mar-a-Lago.
  • Moving a prosecution to Florida could avert a time-consuming legal battle over the trial venue, The Washington Post reported.
  • Voters are entitled to a determination of Trump’s guilt or innocence at a trial before the election, Norman Eisen, Andrew Weissmann and Joyce Vance write in Times Opinion.
  • Evidence suggests that the prosecution in the documents case is stronger than the Manhattan indictment, David A. Graham writes in The Atlantic.
 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Wildfire Smoke
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The East River Esplanade in Manhattan yesterday.Benjamin Norman for The New York Times
 
Supreme Court
 
War in Ukraine
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People on the flooded embankment of the Southern Buh River in Mykolaiv, Ukraine.Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times
  • Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to be underway. Ukrainian forces mounted an attack in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, using advanced U.S. and German weapons.
  • Russia shelled the flood-stricken city of Kherson, obstructing evacuation efforts.
 
Other Big Stories
  • China is planning to build a facility in Cuba that American officials worry could spy on the U.S.
  • The American branch of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance halted trading in U.S. dollars.
  • Pat Robertson, who built an empire on his evangelism and turned Christian conservatives into a powerful constituency, died at 93.
  • An eating disorder support group replaced its help line with an A.I. tool. The bot was taken offline after it began offering weight-loss advice.
  • Energy drinks are surging, and so are their caffeine levels. Some servings have nearly as much as a six-pack of Coca-Cola.
 
Opinions

Leaving A.I. in the hands of tech giants will bring political and economic oppression, Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson argue.

Only you (and your friends) can prevent forest fires: New fire awareness campaigns should summon everyone to duty, Clare Frank writes.

And a column by Farhad Manjoo on public transit.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Feral cats in Flatbush, Brooklyn.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Neighbors: New York City is trying to manage its 500,000 feral cats.

Beige flag: Your partner’s weird behaviors may not be bad, but they aren’t good either.

Modern Love: The heartache and joys of raising three small children, alone, at 62.

Sun and suds: Head to the backyard for a bath.

Road trips: What to bring and where to store it.

Advice from Wirecutter: Wash your swimsuit without stretching it.

Lives Lived: As President Reagan’s interior secretary, James Watt sparked a national debate over the use of public lands. Watt died at 85.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Impeccably timed: The Panthers were minutes from going down 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final when Matthew Tkachuk tied the game with 2:13 left, leading to a season-saving overtime win.

Softball dynasty: The Sooners won their third straight Women’s College World Series title, cementing the program as one of the best in the history of college sports.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Joan Rivers in 1984.Mike Maloney/Mirrorpix, via Getty Images

A comedy ‘crown jewel’

Throughout decades in comedy, Joan Rivers kept a meticulous catalog of her jokes, with 65,000 typewritten cards organized by subjects such as “Parents hated me,” “Las Vegas” and “No sex appeal.” The largest category was “Tramp,” which included 1,756 jokes.

Now, years after Rivers’s death, her family is donating the archive to the National Comedy Center, a high-tech museum in Jamestown, N.Y. It will be the focus of an interactive exhibition that allows visitors to explore the files in depth.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Armando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Rebecca Jurkevich.
 
Travel
 
News Quiz

How well did you follow the headlines this week?

 
Now Time to Play
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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.— German

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 10, 2023

 

(A note to readers: Melissa Kirsch’s weekly edition of The Morning, which we normally send to you on Saturday, will go out tomorrow instead. Today, we’re focusing on the news.)

Good morning. We’re covering the details of Donald Trump’s indictment, Canadian wildfires and the Stanley Cup Finals.

 
 
 
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Jack Smith, the special counsel assigned to lead the investigation into Donald Trump.Kenny Holston/The New York Times

A public case

The public filings in most legal cases are of secondary importance. What happens in the courtroom matters far more. But the United States of America v. Donald J. Trump is obviously not a typical case.

Perhaps its most unusual aspect is the reality that the defendant could become the president of the United States before the case has finished. Were that to happen, the defendant-cum-president would probably order the Justice Department to drop the case. And he might succeed.

For that reason, this case is both legal and unavoidably political. The prosecutors’ audience is not only the judges and jurors who will be involved in the legal proceedings. It is also the American public, who will decide whether Trump ultimately has the power to overrule a verdict. (In almost any scenario, the appeal process would not be complete before the next presidential term begins.)

“Ideally, you’d have this decided in a court of law based on the facts,” Noah Bookbinder, the president of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington and a former corruption prosecutor, told me. “But making a public case is part of what’s going on here.”

A central goal of the indictment unsealed yesterday was to make clear that Trump’s behavior was fundamentally different from that of other politicians who have mishandled classified information, including President Biden, Mike Pence, Hillary Clinton and David Petraeus. (My colleagues Alan Feuer and Maggie Haberman, who have been covering the case, write that the main lesson of the indictment is that Trump’s handling of classified documents was even worse than people imagined.)

Prosecutors say that Trump knowingly removed classified information from the White House; that the information was sensitive, including some relating to the country’s military vulnerabilities; that Trump left the documents in public places where others might have seen them; and that when asked to return the documents, he lied to federal investigators and tried to obstruct an investigation. Trump says he is innocent and the case is a witch hunt intended to prevent him from returning to the presidency.

This battle for public opinion is not a sideshow. It may ultimately be as important to Trump’s future as anything that happens in front of a judge.

In the rest of today’s newsletter, we walk you through the details of the indictment and The Times’s coverage of the case.

The basics

The details that emerged yesterday came from an indictment that the Justice Department unsealed. The government charged Trump with 37 criminal counts in total; 31 relate to sensitive documents that he kept and the remaining seven to obstructing the investigation.

“We have one set of laws in this country, and they apply to everyone,” Jack Smith, the special counsel hired by the Justice Department to lead the investigation, said yesterday. You can read the indictment, with annotations from Times reporters, or you can read a shorter list of key points.

Walt Nauta, a Trump aide, was also charged. If this case follows the patterns of others, prosecutors may later offer Nauta leniency in exchange for cooperating in the case against Trump, the more senior figure.

Already, other Trump employees appear to be helping the investigation. The indictment relies in part on their text messages, as well as notes taken by a lawyer for Trump and an audio tape of a meeting. “It is going to enrage Trump when he sees just how much of his own staff and advisers cooperated with this investigation,” Maggie Haberman said.

The alleged crime

Among the accusations from prosecutors:

  • After leaving the White House in January 2021, Trump kept documents relating to U.S. nuclear programs; the country’s potential vulnerabilities to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to an attack.
  • Trump shared a highly sensitive “plan of attack” against Iran with visitors at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J. He was recorded on tape describing the material as “highly confidential” and “secret,” and acknowledging it had not been declassified.
  • He shared a top secret military map with a staffer at his political action committee who did not have a security clearance.
  • Trump stored boxes containing classified documents throughout Mar-a-Lago, including in a ballroom, a bathroom and a shower, as well as in an office and his bedroom. The storage was often sloppy, and the documents were in semi-public places.
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via Department of Justice
  • One photo in the indictment shows boxes of documents stacked next to a toilet. Another shows rows of stacked documents near the edge of a stage in Mar-a-Lago’s White and Gold Ballroom, where events and gatherings were held. His lawyers had told investigators that documents were kept only in a storage room.

The alleged cover-up

  • Trump suggested that his lawyer hide or destroy documents that a grand jury had subpoenaed and falsely tell the F.B.I. that they did not have the documents that officials were seeking.
  • In one meeting, Trump made a “plucking motion” to his lawyer, which the lawyer said he understood to mean, “Why don’t you take them with you to your hotel room and if there’s anything really bad in there, like, you know, pluck it out.”
  • Before his lawyer visited Mar-a-Lago to search for documents in a storage room, Trump directed Nauta to move dozens of the boxes out of the storage room. His lawyers then certified to the F.B.I. that they had turned over everything — which Trump knew to be false.

More Times coverage

  • President Biden has insisted that he will not interfere with the independence of the Justice Department. His strategy with Trump’s indictment: Stay silent.
  • “Every aspect of the indictment shows a historic element of Trump’s personality,” Maggie Haberman wrote on Twitter. “His showing off, his belief that everything is his, his thrusting his advisers into untenable positions, his admiration for people who evade scrutiny.”
  • Last year Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, was rebuked by a higher court for handing Trump unusually favorable rulings around the documents investigation. On Tuesday, she will preside over his first appearance in court.
 

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THE LATEST (NON-TRUMP) NEWS

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Boris Johnson resigned from Parliament yesterday.Kenny Holston/The New York Times
  • Boris Johnson, Britain’s former prime minister, resigned from Parliament after learning the findings of an investigation into his parties during a Covid lockdown.
  • The fiercest fighting of Ukraine’s apparent counteroffensive is in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. Experts say Ukraine could suffer heavy losses.
  • The F.B.I. is investigating political donations by members of a Wyoming-based spy ring that sought to infiltrate liberal groups.
  • Wildfires have given Canada the feeling of a country under siege, with plumes of smoke over major cities.
  • A new DNA technique helped investigators crack a quadruple murder in an Idaho college town.
 
 

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CULTURE CALENDAR

📚 “Lucky Dogs” (Out Now): Inspired by the story of Harvey Weinstein — specifically the tale of the actress Rose McGowan and the private security firm agent who befriended and then betrayed her — Helen Schulman’s novel is, as the Times critic Alexandra Jacobs wrote, “deeply knowing, properly indignant and … very funny.”

📺 “Black Mirror” (Thursday): It’s been four years since the last season of this dark sci-fi anthology series premiered on Netflix. And in that time, nothing at all dystopian or technologically troubling has occurred, so is this show even relevant anymore? (Kidding! It’s scary out there, kids.) This season — which stars Salma Hayek, Aaron Paul, Josh Hartnett, Zazie Beetz and Annie Murphy from “Schitt’s Creek” — runs five episodes.

 

RECIPE OF THE WEEK

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Romulo Yanes for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Vivian Lui.

Rainbow Sprinkle Cake

June is Pride month, and, if baking is on your agenda, this festive Funfetti rainbow sprinkle cake makes an especially sweet statement. It’s a tender-crumbed yellow layer cake with sprinkles both in the batter and on top of the vanilla cream cheese frosting. Although you can buy premixed rainbow sprinkles, Julia Moskin, who adapted the cake from Candace Nelson, suggests creating your own mix (something kids especially love to do). Julia also has a warning: Although you may be tempted, don’t use sprinkles with natural coloring. They lose their brightness in the oven, leaving drab streaks instead of bright rainbow speckles. Which is, after all, the point.

 

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REAL ESTATE

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Marc Hamer

Mindful planting: A good garden is a place of worship.

What you get for $700,000: A Craftsman-style house in Dallas; a desert retreat in Pioneertown, Calif.; or a two-bedroom condominium in Somerville, Mass.

The hunt: Newlyweds with six grown children wanted to find a Manhattan apartment big enough for family dinners. Which home did they choose? Play our game.

New York market: The apartment looked as if it had never been cleaned. They took it anyway.

 

LIVING

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Katy Viola catching air in Venice Beach.Ben Pier for The New York Times

Aggressive blading: A flashy, niche style of skating is back.

Cheap hotels: A new website helps travelers book rooms when they’re cheapest.

“Nature’s Ozempic”: Berberine is being hyped as a natural weight loss drug, but its effectiveness remains murky.

 

ADVICE FROM WIRECUTTER

Gifts for dads

It doesn’t take much time or money to coax a smile out of even the most stoic dads on Father’s Day, which is next weekend. Wirecutter experts have gift recommendations as affordable as 13 bucks — and many with two-day shipping. Handy types might love a sleek Japanese toolbox with hinges that slide like butter. Analogue dads will delight in the richness of a luxury pencil. Or give him the ultimate crowd-pleaser: a cloudlike nap hammock. The real dad magic happens at the intersection of pragmatic, sentimental and fun. — Jen Hunter

 

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

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Carter Verhaeghe of the Panthers in Game 4.Rebecca Blackwell/Associated Press

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Florida Panthers, Stanley Cup: The Panthers were lost in the N.H.L. wilderness: After reaching the 1996 Stanley Cup Finals, they went 25 seasons without winning another playoff series. But this season they have found their way again, with a playoff run that included an upset of the historically great Bruins. Now they’re facing Vegas, a team that has been around for only five seasons — but is appearing in its second Stanley Cup Finals. The Golden Knights lead the series, 2-1. 8 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

For more

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

See the hardest Spelling Bee words from this week.

Take the news quiz to see how well you followed this week’s headlines.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. — Melissa

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter had an error in the email preview. The newsletter included a story about Joan Rivers, not Joan Collins.

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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 11, 2023

 

Good morning. What books will you read this summer? Here are some titles to get you started.

 
 
 
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María Jesús Contreras

Kick back

The books are piling up again. The physical ones on the bedside table; the library queue; the e-bookshelves on which reside the novels impulse-purchased from bed, begun and then forgotten in one insomniac night. My eyes, always, bigger than my attention span.

I’m contemplating the year’s midway point, my book-a-week commitment, the number of pages between here and 26. Reading, I tell myself, shouldn’t be a chore but a joy. And so, when The Times Book Review arrives with its summer previews for fiction and nonfiction, suggesting even more enticing titles, I’m determined again to brand this a reading summer. A reading books summer, in contrast with my “long magazine article” spring, which was preceded by a “Dateline” winter and a “mostly podcasts” fall.

I’m optimistic about my prospects. Andrew Lipstein, the author of 2022’s delightful “Last Resort,” has a new novel, “The Vegan.” It’s about a Brooklyn hedge funder who, after a fateful dinner party, decides to go vegan. That’s not out until July, so in the meantime I’ll busy myself with nonfiction.

Aisha Harris, late of The Times and currently a co-host of NPR’s “Pop Culture Happy Hour” podcast, has an essay collection coming next week called “Wannabe: Reckonings With the Pop Culture That Shapes Me.” Later in June, a book I’ve been waiting for someone to write: “The Sullivanians: Sex, Psychotherapy and the Wild Life of an American Commune,” by Alexander Stille. For years I’ve read everything I could find online about this Upper West Side community, founded by a veteran of the Spanish Civil War, that sought to redefine the nuclear family. I’m excited for Stille’s book to fill in the blanks in my internet self-schooling.

Also in June, Lorrie Moore has a new novel, “I Am Homeless if This Is Not My Home,” her first since 2009. One of the plotlines concerns a man who makes a cross-country trip with the reanimated body of his ex-girlfriend. I’m not normally one for anything “reanimated,” but it’s Lorrie Moore. I’d read her grocery lists if she’d permit me.

The sequel to Colson Whitehead’s “Harlem Shuffle,” “Crook Manifesto,” is out in July, and Ann Patchett’s latest, “Tom Lake,” arrives in August. Will I finish the many books I’m partway through before I move on to this bounty of summer picks? Honestly, as much as it pains me to leave things undone, I’m giving myself a fresh slate. I want to read enthusiastically, athletically, this summer. I’m determined to be a closer. My itinerary is set, my reading list planned. Now, I leave it up to the season to bring on the sunny days and shady patches of grass.

For more

  • If you prefer more genre-based summer reading, we have you covered.
  • How well do you know popular summer novels? Take our quiz.
  • Want more summer reading suggestions? The Times’s archive is full of them. Here’s a list from 1978. Here’s one from 1988. Here’s last year’s.
 

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THE WEEK IN CULTURE

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After 75 years in and around the theater district in Midtown Manhattan, the Tony Awards will be presented uptown this year.Gioncarlo Valentine for The New York Times
 

NEWS

Trump Indictment
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Donald Trump made his first public appearance since he was indicted on federal charges.Jon Cherry for The New York Times
 
Other Big Stories
 

FROM OPINION

Time is running out to revive the South’s native grasslands. Paradoxically, doing so requires chopping down newer forests, Robert Langellier writes.

The American public has largely moved on from the contents of the Discord leaks. There’s a reason for that, Serge Schmemann writes.

Here are columns by Ross Douthat on U.F.O.s and Nick Kristof on animal rights.

 
 

The Sunday question: Was the Supreme Court’s decision on Alabama’s election map a victory for voting rights?

“We’ll take it. Democracy needed a win,” AL.com’s J.D. Crowe writes, likening the Voting Rights Act to a phoenix rising from the ashes. But the court doesn’t strengthen voting rights, only maintains the status quo, Melissa Murray writes for The Washington Post: “And the status quo is that this court, over the past 10 years, has severely hobbled the law and its protections for minority voters.”

 
 

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MORNING READS

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A huddle at the end of a Thursday evening worship service.Eli Durst for The New York Times

Inclusive love: A ministry at the University of Texas opens its doors to students of all types.

A.I. or nukes: Can you tell the difference between experts’ warnings? Try this quiz.

Behind-the-scenes: Inside the hunt for the Idaho killer.

Vows: She met her husband thanks to “The Bachelor” — but not the way you might think.

Lives lived: When Harald zur Hausen proposed in the 1970s that HPV caused cervical cancer, he was ridiculed. His discovery earned him the Nobel Prize, and led to the development of a vaccine. He died at 87.

 

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Listen to these seven songs, including some from Jorja Smith and Miya Folick.

Practice gratitude. It’s really good for you.

 

BOOKS

The roots of trauma: One writer examines landscapes and memories to make sense of her childhood in near total isolation.

Back from the dead: In the novel “My Murder,” the victim of a serial killer comes back to life — but life isn’t the same.

Our editors’ picks: “The Half Moon,” about a faltering marriage and a failing bar in a small town, and eight other books.

Times best sellers: David Sedaris jokes about tough times in “Happy-Go-Lucky,” which is on the paperback nonfiction best-seller list.

 

THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE

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The New York Times

On the cover: The high cost of bad credit.

Magic mushrooms: A vast fungal web braids together life on Earth. Merlin Sheldrake wants to help us see it.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch For
  • The men’s French Open final is this morning. Novak Djokovic is playing for his 23rd Grand Slam singles title.
  • President Biden will host Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, at the White House tomorrow.
  • Nima Momeni, who has been charged in the death of Cash App founder Bill Lee, is scheduled to appear in court Tuesday.
  • King Charles III’s first birthday celebration as sovereign will be held Saturday.
  • Sunday is Father’s Day in the U.S.
 
What to Cook This Week
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Linda Xiao for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini.

It’s pesto season, Emily Weinstein writes in her Five Weeknight Dishes newsletter. The gap between supermarket and homemade is wide — luckily, all it takes is five ingredients and a food processor. These plantains with eggs and jammy tomatoes are light yet filling; and this sheet-pan chicken brightens up with radishes and lime.

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 12, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering a faster path to clean energy, the death of Silvio Berlusconi and the Tony Awards.

 
 
 
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Wind turbines in Kansas in 2017.Christopher Smith for The New York Times

Permission to build

With its open plains and thousands of miles of wheat fields, Kansas is one of the windiest states in the U.S. That makes it a great place for turbines that capture the wind and convert it into electricity. But too few people live there to use all that power.

So in 2010, developers started planning a large power-line project connecting Kansas with Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. They wanted to move the clean energy generated in Kansas, from both wind turbines and solar panels, to states with much bigger populations. That would let more communities replace planet-warming fossil fuels that have contributed to the kinds of wildfires and unhealthy air that have blanketed large swaths of North America this week.

Thirteen years later, however, full construction has not yet started on the project, known as the Grain Belt Express. Why? Because in addition to federal permission, the project needs approval from every local and state jurisdiction it passes through. And at different times since 2010, at least one agency has resisted it.

The Grain Belt Express is an example of a broader problem. America’s electrical grid is highly fragmented, as my colleagues Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer explain in a story that’s just published. That decentralization makes it hard to coordinate the large, interstate projects needed to connect clean energy to the grid.

One way to get at that problem is to do what experts call permitting reform. The issue has recently gained national traction, and President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, discussed it during debt-limit negotiations last month. Local and state governments are considering changes, too.

The goal is to streamline the approval process for energy projects so they can avoid the fate of the Grain Belt Express. As long as such projects languish, Americans will keep using existing coal, oil and gas infrastructure for their energy needs.

Today’s newsletter will look at why the changes are needed to build the kinds of projects that could help address climate change and create more high-paying jobs.

A building challenge

Romany Webb, a climate law expert at Columbia University, put the problem in simple terms: “To mitigate climate change effectively, we’re going to need to build a lot of new stuff. And in order to do that quickly, we need to think about legal reforms.”

Much of the money for clean energy is already there. Last year, Congress approved hundreds of billions of dollars for solar panels, wind turbines, nuclear plants and other projects to tackle climate change. The next hurdle for those projects will not be money; it will be obtaining permits from all levels of government.

The climate funding could help America make a serious dent in its contribution to climate change, Princeton University researchers found. But about half the projected impact will be lost if the country does not speed up the building of large power lines, like the Grain Belt Express.

The problem is not just about power lines. The permitting process and other legal challenges are blocking hundreds of renewable-energy projects, including solar power plants and wind farms, according to the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

Communities have various reasons for blocking these projects. Landowners might worry about the government seizing their land. Power lines, wind turbines and solar panels can be eyesores in places that rely on beautiful vistas for tourism. Such projects can damage the environment by displacing wildlife or cutting down trees.

Some critics argue that speeding up permits could also make it easier to build coal, oil and gas infrastructure. Indeed, this is one reason that reform has bipartisan support: Democrats largely want the advances for clean energy, and Republicans largely want the boost to oil and gas production.

The criticisms have made it difficult for lawmakers to agree on what an overhaul should look like. So despite bipartisan support, Biden and McCarthy agreed to only minor changes, to speed up environmental reviews, in last week’s debt deal. They promised to come back to permitting reform in future discussions. Meanwhile, some states, like California, want to limit legal challenges that hold up projects.

Balancing act

The case for a permitting overhaul is that the current system has gone too far. Existing policies have helped protect the environment, landowners and tourism. But they have also become a burden that slows projects far longer than is necessary to ensure safeguards. Reform, then, would be about finding a better balance.

And though changes could allow more fossil fuel projects, they would probably enable far more clean energy projects, experts say. With public attention to climate change, technological breakthroughs and hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending, clean energy is expected to become cheaper and more competitive than fossil fuels. So developers will be much more likely to build a clean energy project than a fossil fuel one — if they can get the permits.

Some fossil-fuel projects already go through a streamlined federal process. In that sense, reform could give clean energy projects the same chance.

For more

  • America’s electrical grid operates more like “balkanized fiefdoms” than a truly connected, national system, one expert told Nadja and Brad. Read their story, with maps breaking down what needs to change.
 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Politics
 
International
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Silvio Berlusconi in Rome last year.Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Puerto Rico’s enduring colonialist legacy is often at the root of gender-based violence there, Anjanette Delgado writes.

New York has moved to decriminalize marijuana, but undocumented immigrants who have had their pot convictions erased still face deportation, Jill Applegate writes.

Ruth Marcus of The Washington Post lost 40 pounds while taking the drug Ozempic. Now she’s left with questions.

Here are columns by Maureen Dowd on Trump and Ezra Klein on Gov. Ron DeSantis.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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David Elliott, the founder of a museum that draws thousands of visitors a year.David Maurice Smith for The New York Times

Big dig: A fossil frenzy in Australia draws in dinosaur-minded tourists.

“Ducking”: Apple knows that’s not what you meant. So it’s fixing autocorrect.

Metropolitan Diary: “See? That’s what I miss about New York City!”

The talk: A sex educator thinks couples should have a monthly “sexual state of the union.”

Lives Lived: The astronomer Owen Gingerich wrote and lectured widely, often on the theme that religion and science were not incompatible. He died at 93.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

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Novak Djokovic in Paris.James Hill for The New York Times

French Open: Novak Djokovic earned his 23rd Grand Slam title yesterday after winning the men’s singles championship.

Soccer’s big disrupters: Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has its eye on more big names to join its league.

Golf: Nick Taylor won the RBC Canadian Open. It could be a memorable end to the tournament’s run on the PGA Tour.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Joni Mitchell onstage this weekend.Justin J Wee for The New York Times

A return to the stage: After a near-fatal brain aneurysm in 2015, it seemed as though Joni Mitchell might never perform live again. But on Saturday, she played her first full concert in two decades, delivering a nearly three-hour performance that proved her voice, and her wit, had not faded. “To hear Mitchell hit certain notes again in that inimitable voice was like glimpsing, in the wild, a magnificent bird long feared to have gone extinct,” the Times critic Lindsay Zoladz wrote.

More on culture

  • The Tony Awards went off with out a hitch despite a screenwriters’ strike. “Kimberly Akimbo” won the award for best musical, and “Leopoldstadt” won best play.
  • Here are all the winners.
 

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

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Melina Hammer for The New York Times

Watch Scarlet,” a historical drama to make you laugh and cry.

Smell the scent of Gay Pride with these candles.

Learn the art of layering rugs to make a room cozier.

 

GAMES

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

Note: We heard from many readers who were disappointed that we eliminated the pangram solution from this section, and we’re restoring it starting today. Yesterday’s pangrams were attainability, banality, and inability.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. Today, we start a new section of the newsletter: “The Morning Recommends …” It’s where we will tell you about stories from Food, Well, Wirecutter and other Times sections that offer advice for daily living. (Previously, this coverage was scattered throughout the newsletter.)

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Good morning. We’re covering a new poll about the Democratic Party, Donald Trump’s court appearance and the N.B.A. finals.

 
 
 
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Workers listening to President Biden at the Port of Baltimore in 2021.Al Drago for The New York Times

Teachers, not lawyers

About 60 percent of U.S. voters do not have a four-year college degree, and they live disproportionately in swing states. As a result, these voters — often described as the American working class — are crucial to winning elections. Yet many of them are deeply skeptical of today’s Democratic Party.

Republicans retook control of the House last year by winning most districts with below-median incomes. In nearly 20 Western and Southern states, Democrats are virtually shut out of statewide offices largely because of their weakness among the white working class. Since 2018, the party has also lost ground with Black, Asian and especially Latino voters.

Unless the party improves its standing with blue-collar voters, “there’s no way for progressive Democrats to advance their agenda in the Senate,” according to a study that the Center for Working-Class Politics, a left-leaning research group, released this morning.

The class inversion of American politics — with most professionals supporting Democrats and more working-class people backing Republicans — is one of the most consequential developments in American life (and, as regular readers know, a continuing theme of this newsletter).

Today, I’ll be writing about what Democrats might do about the problem, focusing on a new YouGov poll, conducted as part of the Center for Working-Class Politics study. In an upcoming newsletter, I’ll examine the issue from a conservative perspective and specifically how Republicans might alter their economic agenda to better serve their new working-class base.

A key point is that even modest shifts in the working-class vote can decide elections. If President Biden wins 50 percent of the non-college vote next year, he will almost certainly be re-elected. If he wins only 45 percent, he will probably lose.

‘Fight for us all’

Elections can be tricky for social scientists to study. The sample sizes are small and idiosyncratic. Researchers can’t conduct hundreds of elections in a laboratory, changing one variable at a time and analyzing how the results change. But researchers can conduct polls that pit hypothetical candidates against each other and see how the results change when the candidates’ biographies, messages and policy proposals change.

This approach, which has become more common among pollsters, is the one that YouGov used. It focused on swing voters — those who don’t identify strongly with either party, many of whom are working class. The poll described a pair of Democratic candidates, each with a biography and a campaign platform, and asked respondents which one they preferred.

Among the findings:

  • Voters preferred a candidate who was a teacher, construction worker, warehouse worker, doctor or nurse. The least popular candidate professions were lawyer and corporate executive.
  • Many effective messages involved jobs, including both moderate policies (like tax credits for training at small businesses) and progressive ones (like a federal jobs guarantee). “People are obviously interested in good-paying jobs,” said Bhaskar Sunkara, the founder of Jacobin, a leftist magazine that helped sponsor the project. “They have an identity that’s rooted in their work.”
  • Black and Latino candidates were slightly more popular than other candidates, mostly because some voters of color preferred candidates of color. (Related: Black candidates — of different ideologies — have beaten non-Black candidates in recent mayoral primaries and elections in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia, Matthew Yglesias of Substack pointed out to me.) But candidate messages that explicitly mentioned race were unpopular.
  • Voters liked Democrats who criticized both political parties as “out of touch.” There is real-world evidence to support this finding, too: Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Representative Marcy Kaptur of Ohio won close races last year while highlighting their differences with Democratic leaders, as Data for Progress, another research group, has noted.
  • Moderate social policies fared better than more liberal ones. The single most effective message in the poll was a vow to “protect the border”; decriminalization of the border was very unpopular.
  • Swing voters liked tough, populist messages such as “Americans who work for a living are being betrayed by superrich elites” and “Americans need to come together and elect leaders who will fight for us all.” As Jared Abbott, the director of the Center for Working-Class Politics, argued, “Democrats need to be less concerned with rhetorical niceties.” Doing so would hardly be new: Harry Truman and Franklin Roosevelt used such red-blooded language.

The bottom line

I find the study’s conclusions fascinating because they are both original and consistent with other evidence. Democrats who have won difficult recent elections, including both progressives and moderates, have often presented a blue-collar image.

President Biden talks about growing up in a working-class neighborhood. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, who owns a car-repair shop, flipped a House district in Washington State partly by criticizing her own party for being elitist. Senator Sherrod Brown, the only Democrat to win statewide in Ohio since 2011, is a populist. So is John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the only Senate candidate from either party to flip a seat last year.

Many Americans are frustrated with the country’s direction, and they want candidates who will promise to fight for their interests. One of the vulnerabilities of today’s Democratic Party, as my colleague Nate Cohn has written, is that it has come to be associated with the establishment.

More on politics

 

THE LATEST NEWS

Trump Indictment
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Donald Trump arriving in Miami yesterday.Saul Martinez for The New York Times
  • Trump will appear in court in Miami today.
  • He is expected to plead not guilty on charges that he illegally kept documents and obstructed the government’s efforts to retrieve them.
  • Trump has tested several defenses, including painting himself as a victim. But the evidence already presented could make them hard to sustain in court.
  • Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, will preside over the trial.
  • There have been about a dozen cases involving classified information in recent years. Many of them ended in prison sentences.
 
Business and Media
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Silvio Berlusconi provided a template for Trump’s political career, Mattia Ferraresi writes.

To achieve universal health coverage, the United States should take inspiration from other countries, Aaron E. Carroll writes.

Ezra Klein and Carlos Lozada discuss how Ron DeSantis’s books make the case for his candidacy over Trump’s.

Here are columns by Lydia Polgreen on the decline of free news and Jamelle Bouie on Republican loyalty to Trump.

 
 

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Readers of The Morning value sharp reporting and analysis — and can discover much more of it with unlimited access to The Times. Subscribe now with an introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

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Illustration by Eric Yahnker

Mr. Beast: His headline-grabbing giveaways made him the Willy Wonka of YouTube. Why do people think he’s evil?

Health: Sleep is more challenging for women than for men.

Lives Lived: Treat Williams, famous for his roles in the movies “Hair” and “Deep Rising” and the TV show “Everwood,” died at 71.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

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Nikola Jokic last night.Daniel Brenner for The New York Times

N.B.A. finals: The Denver Nuggets beat the Miami Heat to win their first championship. Nikola Jokic cemented his spot in the pantheon of N.B.A. greats with a stunning performance.

A departure: The Oklahoma softball ace Jordy Bahl said she would leave the program.

A mission: Christian McCaffrey’s voice was the last thing Logan Hale heard. Now McCaffrey, a 49ers running back, is helping fulfill his young fan’s final wish.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

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A gallery in Copenhagen.Charlotte de la Fuente for The New York Times

An ancient reunion: It’s not a coincidence that so many of the statues in museums are missing their heads: Throughout history, invaders would target statues when they attacked a city, decapitating the likenesses of local leaders to make a statement. And the statues that survived were often chopped up by smugglers, who wanted two artifacts to sell instead of one. Now, as Graham Bowley writes in The Times, those ancient acts of vandalism have made it hard for museums to match heads with their long-lost torsos.

More on culture

 

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

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Armando Rafael for The New York Times

Make a one-pot vegetable pulao, which combines rice, vegetables and spices.

Visit vineyards in California that are far from the Napa crowds.

Read an old magazine. You’ll understand the past in a new way.

 

GAMES

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words. Yesterday’s pangram was expletive.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Good morning. We’re covering Trump’s arraignment, a new A.I. Beatles song and Pat Sajak.

 
 
 
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Donald Trump arriving in New Jersey yesterday.Doug Mills/The New York Times

A simple test

Two weeks ago, a federal judge sentenced Robert Birchum, a former Air Force lieutenant colonel, to three years in jail for removing hundreds of secret documents from their authorized locations and storing them in his home and officer’s quarters.

In April, a judge sentenced Jeremy Brown, a former member of U.S. Special Forces, to more than seven years in prison partly for taking a classified report home with him after he retired. The report contained sensitive intelligence, including about an informant in another country.

In 2018, Nghia Hoang Pho received a five-and-a-half year sentence for storing National Security Agency documents at his home. Prosecutors emphasized that Pho was aware he was not supposed to have taken the documents.

These three recent cases are among dozens in which the Justice Department has charged people with removing classified information from its proper place and trying to conceal their actions. That list includes several former high-ranking officials, like David Petraeus and John Deutch, who each ran the C.I.A.

Now, of course, the list also includes Donald Trump, who was arraigned in a Miami federal courthouse yesterday and pleaded not guilty to 37 charges.

Above the law?

Are federal prosecutors singling out Trump because of his signature role in American politics? Or are they basing their decision to indict him solely on the facts of the case?

Sean Trende, a political analyst with RealClearPolitics, has offered a helpful way to understand these questions — and specifically when a former president should, and should not, be charged with a crime.

Start by thinking about all the other people who had engaged in behavior similar to that for which the ex-president was charged with a crime. If just some of those other people were charged, the ex-president should not be, Trende wrote. Prosecutors have a large amount of discretion about which cases to bring, and they should err on the side of not indicting a former president because of the political turmoil it is likely to cause, he argued.

But if the ex-president did something that would have caused anybody else to be charged with a crime, he should be, too. “The president shouldn’t be above the law,” Trende explained.

There is ample reason to believe that the document case against Trump falls into the second category: Had any other American done what he is accused of doing, that person would almost certainly be prosecuted. “The real injustice,” the editors of The Economist magazine wrote yesterday, “would have been not to indict him.”

Consider: Prosecutors have accused Trump of removing classified documents from government property and bringing them home with him. Those documents contained sensitive information, such as military plans and intelligence about foreign militaries. Trump made clear to others that he knew he should not have the documents and took steps to mislead investigators about them, prosecutors claim.

It’s true — as Trump’s defenders repeatedly point out — that other government officials, including President Biden, Mike Pence and Hillary Clinton, have also mishandled classified information without having been charged with crimes. But those cases were very different from Trump’s. The transgressions seemed to be accidental. The officials returned the documents when asked. They did not try to mislead federal investigators.

Trump’s alleged actions instead resemble those of the obscure officials I mentioned at the top of today’s newsletter. His behavior also seems to have been much more brazen than that of Deutch and Petraeus.

This pattern helps explain why legal experts have been much more supportive of the Justice Department’s indictment of Trump than of the case in New York charging Trump with violating campaign-finance law. The New York case has made some experts uncomfortable because it lacked a clear precedent. It does not seem to pass Trende’s standard for when a former president should be charged with a crime. There are no good analogies.

The New York case relies on a novel combination of statutes to charge Trump with a felony for hiding payments he made to conceal a sexual encounter. Perhaps the most similar case — the trial of John Edwards, a former Democratic presidential candidate, also on charges of concealing payments connected to an affair — ended with an acquittal on one charge and a hung jury on five others.

By contrast, the list of analogies to the document charges against Trump just keeps growing. Next week, Kendra Kingsbury, a former F.B.I. analyst, is scheduled to be sentenced to federal prison. She has pleaded guilty to having brought hundreds of classified documents to her home in Dodge City, Kan.

The day’s news

  • “We most certainly enter a plea of not guilty,” Todd Blanche, Trump’s lawyer, told the judge during the 50-minute courtroom appearance. Trump did not speak.
  • Trump was fingerprinted at the courthouse, but did not get a mug shot taken. Officials considered it unnecessary because of his fame.
  • The judge said Trump was not allowed to discuss the case with Walt Nauta, his personal aide, who is also charged. Nauta accompanied Trump to court, but his own arraignment was postponed because he does not yet have a Florida-based lawyer.
  • Trump has a new nemesis: Jack Smith, the special counsel who charged him. Their paths finally crossed yesterday.
  • What’s next? “The government will begin to reveal its evidence through the discovery process,” The Times’s Alan Feuer said. “Pretrial motions will be filed and argued. All that will likely take months.” Our colleague Maggie Haberman explained: “Trump is determined to fight this battle in the court of public opinion for as long as possible.”
  • “Trump may well be waiting for a trial when voters cast their presidential ballots next fall,” Russell Berman writes in The Atlantic.
  • President Biden spent his day meeting with the NATO secretary general and taking in a Juneteenth concert. “Anything but pay attention to Donald Trump,” The Times’s Michael Shear wrote.
  • After leaving court, Trump visited Versailles Restaurant in Miami, where patrons sang “Happy Birthday” (he turns 77 today). He then traveled back to his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., and told supporters, “I did everything right, and they indicted me.” He displayed less energy than usual during the speech.
  • Here’s a fact-check of Trump’s speech.
 

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics | Chart shows year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index. | By The New York Times
 
Opinions

Trump’s indictment will test our court system. A citizen jury has the best chance at withstanding the political firestorm, Deborah Pearlstein argues.

Lock him up,” Bret Stephens writes. And Thomas Friedman argues that Trump has broken America’s political system.

Roger Worthington donated money to plant one million new trees. He wishes he had protected old ones instead.

Here are columns by Tom Edsall on the Alabama redistricting case and Paul Krugman on air pollution.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Setting up for an unusual sunset performance in Queens.Natalie Keyssar for The New York Times

Unique acoustics: A beautiful evening of music in New York City’s sewer.

Bot M.D.: Some doctors are using ChatGPT to communicate empathetically.

Hours and years: Would time feel more valuable if we weren’t so focused on our careers?

Lives Lived: After the filmmaker Agnes Varda died in 2019, her contemporary Jean-Luc Godard said there were only two original French New Wave directors left — himself and Jacques Rozier. Godard died last year; now Rozier is gone, too, dead at 96.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

A swift ascension: The Vegas Golden Knights are N.H.L. champions after defeating the Florida Panthers, 9-3.

Drama in Buffalo: The wide receiver Stefon Diggs was not present on the first day of mandatory minicamp, a troubling sign for the Bills.

Next move: Rory McIlroy was the face of PGA Tour resistance before last week’s shocking golf merger. Now what?

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

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Andrew Barth Feldman and Jennifer Lawrence in “No Hard Feelings.”Macall Polay/Sony Pictures, via Associated Press

Gen Z debauchery: A new wave of sex comedies are coming to theaters this summer, revitalizing a faded genre. The films avoid the problematic antics of old movies like “Porky’s” and “American Pie” and instead frame their raunchy fun around diverse casts and female desires, Leah Greenblatt writes.

More on culture

 

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

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David Malosh for The New York Times

Skewer, then grill vegetables to turn them velvety soft and add flavor.

Listen to this playlist when you’re gardening.

Soak your feet for a better night’s sleep.

 

GAMES

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words. Yesterday’s pangram were abomination and ambition.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. We’re no longer including a link to every day’s print front page of The Times (so that we have room to include links to more stories). You can bookmark this page, which always contains an image of the front page. And you can subscribe to the print edition here.

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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 15, 2023

 

Astead Herndon — a politics reporter at The Times and the host of “The Run-Up” podcast — is taking over today’s newsletter with a fresh perspective on the political consequences of the Trump indictment. — David Leonhardt

 
 

Good morning. Today we’re covering Trump’s political style, diplomacy with Iran and dads on TikTok.

 
 
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Donald Trump at a campaign event.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Dominating attention

When Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges in New York City two months ago, I tried to make sense of the political fallout with my colleague Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst. After poring over traditional markers about fund-raising and poll numbers, Nate mentioned another standard I’ve been thinking about over the past few days: Do Trump’s legal challenges make him more (or less) fun?

The question is awkward, as it suggests that the reasons some Americans are drawn to politicians are divorced from the seriousness of their office. But after Trump’s arraignment in federal court in Miami this week, I’m reminded of its importance. Nate wasn’t calling Trump fun as a self-evident fact, but rather identifying a set of voters who are attracted to showmanship and celebrity, are distinct from Trump’s base and follow politics only casually, if at all.

These voters matter for Trump’s 2024 campaign. Five percent of Trump’s voters in 2016 were disengaged from politics, a study by Democracy Fund, a pro-democracy group, found, and that is the type of margin that made a difference in such a close contest.

What distinguishes this group? Perhaps you have a friend who doesn’t care about politics, but can’t believe Trump said THAT. Or who recognizes the belittling nicknames he bestowed on Republicans in the 2016 primary, like “Little Marco” Rubio and “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, monikers that have stuck beyond Republican circles.

Such awareness is part of the effect of Trump’s celebrity and ability to command attention in ways no other candidate can. When Trump was at his political peak, that quality extended beyond his most ardent supporters to political outsiders who were attracted to his style — or were at least entertained by it.

2024 challenge

Ahead of the 2024 election, though, Trump’s crusade for supporters is failing to live up to his 2016 effort. At both of Trump’s arraignments, the number of people who came to the courthouse to defend him was smaller than expected. I’ve heard from Republican leaders — on Capitol Hill and in early voting states like Iowa — who say they have gotten fewer calls defending Trump than they anticipated. Even his return to CNN, in a widely criticized town hall last month, fell short of the ratings that Trump once delivered for cable networks.

Perhaps most important, Trump himself looks miserable. Even as Republican voters have largely rallied behind him, and even as he remains the front-runner to secure the Republican nomination despite his cascading legal problems, he appears to be wrestling with the reality that his freedom is in jeopardy.

“Some birthday,” he grumbled in Miami this week, ignoring a clear attempt by supporters to cheer him up on the week he turned 77.

According to my colleagues Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman, who have closely followed Trump’s political career, his speech in New Jersey after his arraignment brought down the mood of the party instead of jump-starting it. Trump turned what was meant to be a moment of defiance into a familiar litany of grievances. He invoked the tone of personal victimhood that Republicans have told me cost them votes in the 2022 midterms, when Trump focused on the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

It’s not just that the indictments distract Trump from laying out an affirmative vision for the country. They can also stop him from being the most free version of himself.

In a competitive Republican primary where another candidate can gain traction with the electorate (a possibility that remains to be seen), Trump’s inability to summon his freewheeling style is the type of difficult-to-quantify factor that can keep him from securing votes — and leave opportunities for opponents.

Trump can, of course, return anytime to the unconstrained approach that won him so much attention in 2016 and since. His Republican primary competitors are already dreading the amount of media coverage they will lose this summer to his indictments, my colleagues Jonathan Swan and Jonathan Weisman reported.

Yet these factors are part of the reason that many Democrats feel good about a potential matchup between President Biden and Trump. They argue that the electorate is simply exhausted with the chaos that he brought to national politics and that his legal troubles are a reminder of that aspect of his presidency. What was once fun (for some) no longer is.

More Trump news

 

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  • The U.S. is paying Russia billions for enriched uranium for nuclear power.
  • Global oil demand is likely to drop sharply over the next five years because of a shift to electric vehicles and other cleaner technologies.
 
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A Baptist pastor appealing a decision to expel her church from the denomination.Christiana Botic for The New York Times
 
Opinions

New York has a flooding problem. But proposed flood walls won’t solve it — and will block off beloved waterfront areas, Robert Yaro and Daniel Gutman write.

Here are columns by Pamela Paul on estimating time and Charles Blow on Florida’s anti-transgender legislation.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Eid prayer in Brooklyn.Jonah Markowitz for The New York Times

Dawn to dusk: A photographer spent two years immersed in Brooklyn’s fast-growing Bangladeshi community.

Discovery: One of Saturn’s moons has all the ingredients for life, scientists found.

Coming of age: In Detroit, a debutante ball where young Black women feel like they belong.

The fixer: When he accidentally stole a Picasso, he knew who to call: Dad.

Adjust your expectations: Lots of couples skip wedding night sex.

Lives Lived: The editor Robert Gottlieb shaped novels, nonfiction books and magazine articles by a pantheon of acclaimed writers. He died at 92.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Beal’s murky future: The Washington Wizards and Bradley Beal will work together to trade him if the team decides to rebuild.

Messi’s M.L.S. limbo: Lionel Messi’s announcement last week that he plans to come to Inter Miami caught M.L.S. officials by surprise, a big reason he hasn’t yet finalized his contract.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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The dad influencers Dave Ogleton, left, and Aaron Martin.via @fitdadceo, @stayathomedad

Digital fatherhood: Dad influencers are finding big audiences on social media. The trend exploded during the pandemic, when many fathers were suddenly home all the time, and it has grown as men become more comfortable sharing the joys and struggles of parenting — often with dad jokes.

“Our goal was mostly to have fun,” said Kevin Laferriere, a comedian who posts about his home life on TikTok. “Then we heard from dads who said heartfelt things like, ‘I’m the only stay-at-home dad I know, and your content helped me feel seen.’”

More on culture

 

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

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Bobbi Lin for The New York Times

Serve this pasta salad the day you make it for the brightest flavor.

Stay calm during a bumpy flight with these tips.

Try these $30 earbuds that tricked Wirecutter’s testers.

Protect your eyes with cheap, yet effective sunglasses.

Squash spotted lanternflies, an invasive species. They’re back for another summer.

 

GAMES

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Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words. Yesterday’s pangram was headwind.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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June 16, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering Trump’s polling problems, the Supreme Court and a race around the world.

 
 
 
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Trump supporters near Mar-a-Lago.Hilary Swift for The New York Times

A Republican split

The 50 percent threshold in a poll can sometimes be distracting. When more than half of people give a certain answer, it often becomes the dominant message to emerge from the poll question. It is the answer that appears to have won. Yet the most important information may nonetheless be lurking elsewhere.

Consider the surveys over the past week that have asked Americans their opinions about the federal charges against Donald Trump. Here are the results of an ABC News/Ipsos survey, which were similar to other poll results:

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Source: ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted from June 9-10, 2023 of 910 adults

On first glance, a central message seems to be strong and continuing support for Trump — because a majority of Republicans said that the charges were not serious. Most Republicans also said that he should not have been charged with a crime and that the indictment was politically motivated.

Media headlines have emphasized these pro-Trump majorities. At a dinner with Democratic donors this week, Jill Biden said that she had just read one of these headlines and found it “a little shocking.” Republican voters, Biden said, “don’t care about the indictment.”

To be clear, Trump’s enduring support among Republicans is an important story. If it continues, he is likely to become the party’s nominee. That support is a sign that political polarization in the U.S. has become so intense that most Republican voters appear to care more about loyalty to Trump than about the possibility that he damaged national security by allowing sensitive intelligence to circulate.

But the existence of an enduring pro-Trump Republican majority is not the only important conclusion from the recent polls. A couple of subtler patterns in the data are more worrisome for Trump.

A decisive minority?

First, look at the relative sizes of the minority opinions in each category in that chart above: There are considerably more Republicans who consider the charges serious than Democrats or independents who do not think they’re serious. The indictment divides Republicans more than it divides Democrats.

A basic lesson of politics is that you win when the public debate is focused on issues that divide your opponent’s supporters and unite yours. Affirmative action, for example, is a problematic topic for the Democratic Party, even though most of its voters support the policy, because there are more Democrats who oppose it than Republicans who support it. (The Times recently explained how this dynamic led to a landslide defeat for an affirmative-action referendum in California.) For similar reasons, undocumented immigration creates political trouble for Democrats.

Problematic subjects for the Republican Party, on the other hand, include health care access, the minimum wage, same-sex marriage and, especially, abortion bans. The recent polls show that Trump’s behavior also falls into this category. Republicans who think he should have been charged with a crime outnumber Democrats who think he should not have been. “Trump splits the party,” says Jonathan Bernstein, a political scientist who writes for Bloomberg Opinion. “No, not evenly, but even an 80/20 split is a real split.”

Another problematic sign for Trump is that the number of Republicans bothered by his legal problems seems to be growing. So is the number among independents. More voters are bothered by the case against him — on charges of taking classified material and trying to conceal that he did — than by the earlier New York State charges related to hush money for a sexual encounter:

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Source: ABC News/Ipsos polls from April 6-7, 2023 of 566 adults and June 9-10, 2023 of 910 adults

The bottom line

The 2024 election is still almost a year and a half away, and the prosecutors trying to hold Trump accountable will need to keep making their case not only in courtrooms but also to the public if they hope to convince most Americans of the seriousness of the charges. But those prosecutors do not need to convince most Republicans in order to succeed.

Just look at what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. A small slice of Republican voters was unhappy enough with Trump’s anti-democratic behavior (and the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling) to defect from the party, helping Democrats keep control of the Senate. The last two presidential elections offer a similar case study: Trump lost the presidency in 2020 partly because 11 percent of typical Republican voters supported Joe Biden, up from 9 percent who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to Catalist, a data firm.

Fifty percent isn’t the only number that matters when you’re looking at a subgroups in poll. Small shifts within each party can determine election outcomes.

Related: “On the night Mr. Trump announced his indictment, the wagons were circled” on Fox News, Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, wrote. “But after the indictment was released, the conversation became more mixed.”

More on politics

  • People close to Trump say he has long been a pack rat. His attachment to boxes of documents is at the center of the latest indictment.
  • Republicans in Congress reacted to the indictment by comparing the U.S. under Biden to a banana republic or a dictatorship. See their responses.
  • Boris Johnson and Trump were both accused of breaking the rules. Only one of them lost support from his party.
 

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  • In a 7-2 ruling, the Supreme Court upheld a law that tries to keep Native American adoptees with their tribes.
  • Tribes are celebrating the decision as a win for their sovereignty.
  • The court is also considering rulings on affirmative action and civil rights for gay people. These graphics compare recent Supreme Court rulings with public opinion.
 
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Graffiti in a once-occupied Ukrainian village.Gaelle Girbes for The New York Times
  • “It doesn’t count as a war crime if you had fun”: Russian troops’ graffiti reveals their mind-set.
  • Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been bloody and slow, but American and Ukrainian officials insist it is working.
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Criticism of the judge in the Trump documents case is exaggerated and contributes to the dangerous view that the federal judiciary is politicized, Nick Akerman argues.

We’re in a new age of cancer drugs. But not enough people have access to them, Kate Pickert, a breast cancer survivor, writes.

Here are columns by David Brooks on the Jan. 6 hearings and Michelle Goldberg on Republicans and anti-L.G.B.T.Q. Muslims.

 
 

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MORNING READS

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Skipper Kirsten Neuschäfer.Loic Venance/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Solo sailing: It’s a race around the world known as the “voyage for madmen.” Meet the first woman to win it, using only pre-1960s technology.

Communal Tesla: A ride share program is helping low-income communities access electric vehicles.

Modern Love: Drawing helped him build a new life after losing his partner.

Lives Lived: After two Oscars and decades as one of Britain’s most acclaimed actresses, Glenda Jackson gave up acting for politics, serving for 23 years as a member of Parliament. She died at 87.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

U.S. Open: Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele both shot 62, a record for the tournament.

A surprise return: The U.S. men’s national team is set to bring Gregg Berhalter back as manager.

McGregor accused: The Miami Heat say they are investigating a woman’s allegation that the M.M.A. star Conor McGregor sexually assaulted her during Game 4 of the N.B.A. finals.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Jesse Lirola for The New York Times

Honest ticket prices: Live Nation and other major ticketing companies announced yesterday that they would make it easier for customers to see the full price of tickets, including fees that can add 30 percent to the cost of seeing a concert or sporting event. The Biden administration has put pressure on the entertainment industry to rein in what it calls “junk fees.”

More on culture

 

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

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David Malosh for The New York Times

Roast salmon with gochujang sauce.

Read “Bad Summer People” by Emma Rosenblum. The Times review calls it an “addictive thriller of manners.”

Cool your home more efficiently.

 

GAMES

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%

Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words. Yesterday’s pangram was audibly.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. The authors Amy Tan and Christian Cooper will discuss their love of birding at a Times virtual event on Thursday. Sign up here.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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