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May 23, 2023

 

With Ron DeSantis set to declare his candidacy this week, I asked my colleague Astead Herndon, who has been covering the campaign for “The Run-Up,” the Times politics podcast, to break down the state of the Republican primary race in today’s newsletter. — David Leonhardt

 
 

Good morning. The challenges that Ron DeSantis faces in any presidential run go beyond Donald Trump.

 
 
 
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Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in New Hampshire on Friday.Sophie Park for The New York Times

A new narrative

The political fortunes of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have reversed over the past six months. After his re-election as Florida’s governor, DeSantis looked like a strong potential presidential candidate while Trump grappled with legal and personal challenges. Now, Trump leads in opinion polling, DeSantis has struggled to solidify his star status and, in some corners, there’s a growing sense that Trump’s nomination for president is inevitable.

I would caution against that feeling, no matter how it looks for Trump at the moment. After months of reporting on the early stages of the 2024 presidential race, I’ve seen how narratives can miss important factors shaping the race. And that is how conventional wisdom starts to take shape in a way that’s divorced from evidence or data. (See: expectations of a Republican wave in last year’s midterm elections.)

DeSantis is expected to formally enter the race as soon as tomorrow. Here are two narratives about his candidacy that could use revising.

Narrative 1: DeSantis is toast.

Reality: There is an opening for a Trump alternative, whether it’s DeSantis or someone else.

Trump’s hold on the Republican electorate has always been tenuous. He has never won the majority of voters in a contested Republican primary. At the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting in California this year, one delegate told me that party insiders estimated that about 30 to 35 percent of Republican voters were unshakably with Trump, while another, smaller group was comfortable with him as the nominee while considering other options.

For other candidates, those numbers make up a road map to victory: Consolidate the majority of Republicans who would prefer a different nominee. This group includes factions like the Tea Party conservatives who backed Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in the 2016 primary and the business-focused moderates who backed candidates like Gov. John Kasich of Ohio in 2016.

Appealing to them is a difficult task. These groups have historically opposed Trump for different reasons and no candidate has successfully brought them together, but the conditions for an anti-Trump coalition are there.

One route for a candidate like DeSantis or Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who joined the Republican field yesterday, is to win the nomination without crossing Trump. As my colleague Nate Cohn wrote, one strategy for defeating Trump could be to embody his political message without taking him on directly. For some Republicans, this is a welcome direction. My reporting made clear that given the criminal investigations Trump faces, some rivals have banked on him to implode on his own.

However, that strategy is passive, which could play into Trump’s hands. Outside the Manhattan courthouse on the day that Trump was arraigned on fraud charges related to his 2016 campaign, the conservative media provocateur Jack Posobiec said that people close to Trump’s campaign predicted that more indictments would embolden his candidacy, not imperil it. He said they believed Trump would have the opportunity to galvanize voters by painting law enforcement as politically motivated and out to stifle his candidacy.

Posobiec pointed to the news media attention, increased fund-raising and the bump in polling that Trump secured after his indictment.

Narrative 2: DeSantis’s biggest problem is Donald Trump.

Reality: Yes, but he has another problem to confront first.

DeSantis no longer scares away candidates who were once deferential to his status as the front-runner in the Trump-alternative sweepstakes. Last week, several Republican governors made notable moves: Doug Burgum of North Dakota — a former Microsoft executive — made overtures toward joining the 2024 field, and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia released an advertisement linking himself to Ronald Reagan. Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire also said he was thinking about joining the race, days after a report that former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey might join as well.

Those actions show a party unintimidated by DeSantis’s candidacy and are further evidence that his campaign’s first task is not to overtake Trump, but to persuade primary voters and opponents that he is the strongest rival to Trump. At the R.N.C. meeting, a Trump adviser told me that his campaign would love for the field to get to 10 candidates. “More is better for us,” the adviser said, invoking the logic that several candidates polling in single digits would hurt DeSantis’s ability to put together a coalition.

DeSantis’s delicate task was on display two months ago, when he announced an isolationist view on the war in Ukraine, a clear play for Trump’s supporters. DeSantis’s statement drew backlash from commentators and Republican donors, and two other presidential hopefuls — former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and former Vice President Mike Pence — used it to attack him.

Such is the danger of DeSantis’s unique electoral position: As he enters the race as the established Trump alternative, he incurs the ire of other rivals seeking to elevate themselves.

When DeSantis announces his candidacy this week, he will be an underdog, but he is not a long shot. No one who has raised more than $110 million is.

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Drone footage of the destruction in Bakhmut.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
 
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The Colorado River.Erin Schaff/The New York Times
 
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Opinions

Christian nationalists are trying to hijack Wyoming’s identity, Susan Stubson writes.

The Supreme Court’s legitimacy partly relies on public opinion, so public criticism is a meaningful check on the institution, Stephen Vladeck writes.

Here are columns by David Brooks on the theologian Tim Keller, Michelle Goldberg on medically necessary abortions and Paul Krugman on working from home.

 
 

For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of New York Times Games. Enjoy the full games experience — Spelling Bee, Wordle, The Crossword and more.

 

MORNING READS

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UWC Atlantic College, popular with Gen Z royalty.Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Princess school: European royalty go to a Welsh castle to learn about world peace.

Good night, sweet prince: A.O. Scott explains why Martin Amis deserves a prominent place in the literary canon.

Exoneration: He freed an innocent man from prison. It ruined his life.

Andrew Tate: The self-crowned “king of toxic masculinity” thought he would be above the law in Romania. Then he was arrested.

Laxatives: Are there any natural ways to get things moving? Experts weigh in.

Advice from Wirecutter: Pack better with compression sacks.

Lives Lived: C. Boyden Gray was White House counsel under President George H.W. Bush and was said to be able to stroll into the Oval Office whenever he liked. He died at 80.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Carmelo Anthony retires: He announced his N.B.A. exit after 19 seasons. One of the best scorers ever, he had a limited role recently.

N.B.A. playoffs: The Denver Nuggets are headed to the N.B.A. finals for the first time after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers.

Real Madrid: Four people were arrested in Madrid after an effigy of Vinicius Jr., the Real Madrid superstar, was hung from bridge. Racist chants could push him to leave the club.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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The Venice Architecture Biennale.Matteo de Mayda for The New York Times

Africa and the future

This year’s edition of the Venice Architecture Biennale, the global architecture exhibition, takes on fraught subjects — race, colonialism, climate change — through the lens of Africa and its diaspora. The result is the most ambitious and pointedly political Biennale in years, the critic Christopher Hawthorne writes in The Times.

More: At the U.S. pavilion, architects consider how to coexist with plastic.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Julia Gartland for The New York Times.

Try these cold noodles with tomatoes as the days get hotter.

 
Cannes Film Festival

Martin Scorsese screened his new movie, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” featuring Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio.

 
Art

Painting and drawing can improve your mental health.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were hotline and neolith. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter included the incorrect puzzle for the day’s Spelling Bee.

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveintent.newyor
The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Good morning. We’re covering the anniversary of the Uvalde shooting, social media risks and a renters’ utopia.

 
 
 
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Uvalde, Texas.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Visualizing grief

The United States experiences so many mass shootings that journalists do not usually linger long after the attacks. Reporters and photographers move on to other stories, while the families and friends of the victims continue to grieve.

One year ago today, a gunman killed 19 children and two teachers at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. Tamir Kalifa, an independent photojournalist based in Austin, traveled to Uvalde shortly after the shootings — but he kept coming back. Tamir temporarily moved to Uvalde to live alongside the victims’ families, renting a 320-square-foot shipping container converted into a home.

We’re devoting today’s newsletter to some of the photographs Tamir has taken over the past year and to excerpts from his interviews with families.

“The grieving cycles do not match the media cycles,” Tamir told us. “We move on, but families don’t.”

Marking the holidays

Xavier “X.J.” Lopez, 10, loved Christmas. He loved going to Uvalde’s annual extravaganza, an event with light displays, decorations and holiday music. So this past Christmas — their first without XJ — his parents, Abel Lopez and Felicha Martinez, and his siblings went to honor him.

The soundtrack of a children’s choir played as they walked through the event. Then, they heard a loud blast that sounded like gunfire — an overloaded transformer had burst. Felicha had a panic attack and collapsed on the grass.

“These days are supposed to be happy,” she said later that evening. “But they are just reminders that our lives are torn apart.”

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Felicha Martinez having a panic attack.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Swimming

The weekend before Tess Mata, 10, died, she told her older sister Faith that she wanted to learn how to swim. Faith was about to begin her senior year at Texas State University, where students jump into a river on campus as a graduation tradition. Tess wanted to take part with her big sister.

On her graduation day this month, Faith walked with her family to the river. Then she jumped in, clutching a photo of Tess. The photo was a sweet symbol — but also a painful reminder.

“Tess looks exactly like Faith,” Veronica Mata, their mother, said. “So the other day she came and she told me, she’s like, ‘I’m so sorry that you have to look at me every day and think of Tess.’”

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Faith MataTamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Visiting their graves

The cemetery where most of the victims are buried has become an anchor in the lives of their families and friends. They have gathered together for graveside birthdays and holidays. They mow the lawn, decorate the headstones and lie on the lush grass that has taken hold.

Caitlyne Gonzales, 11, who lost many of her friends in the shooting, comes to the cemetery to visit them. On a recent evening, she stopped by Jackie Cazares’s grave and played Taylor Swift music. She sang and danced and took selfies. For a moment, it was as if they were all together again.

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Caitlyne Gonzales dancing.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Protests and vigils

Many of the parents have found purpose in activism. Brett Cross, the uncle of Uziyah Garcia, 10, who was raising him as a son, spent 10 days camped outside the school district offices in protest, alongside other family members and supporters. They demanded that school police officers be suspended over their role in the delayed response.

The protest ended when the district halted its school police department’s operations and placed two officials on leave.

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Brett Cross protesting.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Family members have also testified before lawmakers on both the state and federal levels and protested beyond Uvalde. Tamir said that an image of Jackie Cazares’s parents, Javier and Gloria, at an annual gun violence vigil in Washington, D.C., surrounded by other survivors of gun violence, was one of the most powerful moments he’s witnessed.

“It’s important to see each of these family members as part of a nationwide network of people intimately affected by gun violence,” he said. “It’s one that is growing each day.”

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A vigil for victims of gun violence.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

More on Uvalde

 

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War in Ukraine
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Russian soldiers with the Free Russia Legion in February.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
 
Social Media
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Doubters have already written off DeSantis’s chances in the 2024 Republican primaries. He’s not dead yet, Rich Lowry argues.

Here are columns by Farhad Manjoo on Adobe’s artificial intelligence and Jamelle Bouie on Neil Gorsuch.

 
 

Enjoy everything The Times offers — all in one subscription. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes and more. Save with a new introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

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Nien-Ken Alec Lu

Fed up: Diners are sick of QR-code menus.

A renters’ utopia: Why it might look like Vienna.

BayouWear: These bright and colorful clothes were born at a New Orleans jazz festival.

Advice from Wirecutter: You need a good purse organizer.

Lives Lived: Rick Hoyt was a regular at the Boston Marathon who competed in more than 1,000 road races using a wheelchair pushed by his father. He died at 61.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Boston lives: The Celtics staved off elimination last night with a season-saving win in Miami.

Rodgers scare: Aaron Rodgers didn’t practice yesterday after tweaking his calf, but that didn’t stop the first day of Jets’ practice from being jubilant.

N.H.L. blitz: The Las Vegas Golden Knights took a 3-0 series lead after scoring three times in the first eight minutes of last night’s victory over the Stars.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

The show goes on

The Tony Awards will look different this year, but they will go on, after a group of playwrights convinced the striking Hollywood writers’ union not to picket the show.

As part of the agreement, the awards show will have no scripted material. But it will feature the usual razzle-dazzle performances from this year’s crop of musicals. That was crucial for Broadway, which has struggled to attract audiences since the pandemic and relies on the Tonys to generate interest.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Armando Rafael for The New York Times

Add a sesame vinaigrette to this tomato salad.

 
What to Watch

Here are hidden gems to stream this month, including a foodie-meets-performance artist comedy.

 
What to Read

“Time Shelter,” a novel in which a nostalgia fever sweeps Europe, won the International Booker Prize.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were amicable, claimable and climbable. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Good morning. As DeSantis announces his campaign, we dig into what may be the single most important fact about U.S. politics.

 
 
 
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Ron DeSantis announced his candidacy at a Twitter event.Chris Delmas/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The ‘Scaffles’ vote

If Ronald Reagan were to come back to life, he would probably be confused by the leftist tone that the early 2024 Republican presidential campaign has sometimes taken.

After Ron DeSantis announced he was holding a fund-raiser last night at the Four Seasons hotel, an official close to Donald Trump mocked the event as “uber elite” and “out of touch.” Trump has also criticized DeSantis for supporting past Republican bills in Congress to shrink government partly by cutting Medicare and Social Security.

DeSantis, for his part, has come out in favor of government action to reduce health care prices. He criticized the Biden administration for blocking cheaper prescription drugs from Canada — a country that used to be a symbol of big-government inefficiency among Republicans. This month, DeSantis, Florida’s governor, signed a bill that tries to lower drug costs there by cracking down on companies known as pharmacy benefit managers.

What’s going on?

Trump’s trouncing of the Republican establishment in 2016, and his continued popularity among the party’s voters, has exposed a weakness of the laissez-faire economic approach known as Reaganism. Namely, it isn’t especially popular with most voters, including many Republicans.

With DeSantis announcing his candidacy last night, I want to use today’s newsletter to highlight arguably the most important fact about U.S. politics: Americans tend to be more progressive on economic issues than they are on social issues. If you can remember that, you will be able to make better sense of the 2024 campaign.

It explains why DeSantis and Trump are competing with each other to sound populist, even if it means favoring government regulations and benefits. It explains why Trump’s criticism of free trade resonated with voters — and why President Biden has promoted his own “buy America” economic policies, breaking with centrist Democrats. It also explains why today’s Republicans campaign on social issues like immigration, crime, gender and religion; most Americans are more conservative on these subjects than the Democratic Party is.

It is true that there is a subset of voters, many of them affluent, who like to describe themselves as “socially liberal and fiscally conservative.” If you’re reading this newsletter, you probably know some people in that category. Yet it happens to be the least common combination in American politics. The typical swing voter is instead “socially conservative and fiscally liberal.”

The 2024 presidential election is likely to be, at least in part, a battle for that voter.

Medicaid and border security

This chart — originally created by the political scientist Lee Drutman, using a large poll taken after the 2016 election — remains the best visualization of the situation:

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Source: Lee Drutman, New America | By The New York Times

It places respondents, each of whom is represented by a dot, on two scales. One scale is based on economic issues like trade, taxes and safety-net programs, while the other is based on social issues like abortion, immigration, race and pride in the United States. Economic progressives appear on the left side of the chart, and economic conservatives on the right. Social conservatives appear in the top half, and social progressives in the bottom. The dots are colored based on their 2016 vote, be it for Trump, Hillary Clinton or a third-party candidate.

Not surprisingly, people who are liberal on both kinds of issues (the bottom left quadrant) overwhelmingly voted Democratic, and consistent conservatives (the top right quadrant) were solid Trump voters. The socially liberal and fiscally conservative quadrant is mostly empty. And the opposite quadrant is the battleground of American politics.

These socially conservative and fiscally liberal voters — you can call them Scaffles, for their acronym — have voted for progressive economic policies when they appear as ballot initiatives, even in red states. Arkansas, Florida, Missouri and Nebraska, for instance, have passed minimum-wage increases. Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Utah have expanded Medicaid through Obamacare. Republicans without a college degree are often the ones who break with their party on these ballot initiatives.

At the same time, Scaffles are the reason that a Times poll last year showed that most voters, including many Latinos, prefer the Republican Party’s stance on illegal immigration to the Democratic Party’s. Or consider a recent KFF/Washington Post poll on transgender issues, in which most Americans said they opposed puberty-blocking treatments for children.

Yes, public opinion has nuances. Most Americans also support laws prohibiting discrimination against trans people, the KFF poll showed. Sometimes, the parties can also overreach. When Democrats talk positively about socialism, they alienate swing voters. On abortion, Republicans have gone so far right, — passing almost total bans, that the issue has become a drag on the party.

But don’t confuse the nuances and exceptions with the big picture. DeSantis and Trump understand that the old Republican approach to economic policy is a vulnerability, which is why they often sound like populists. And when they emphasize cultural conservatism, they aren’t merely catering to their base. They are often appealing to swing voters, too.

More on DeSantis

 

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President Biden and Jill Biden.Doug Mills/The New York Times
 
International
 
Tina Turner
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Tina Turner in Brighton, England, in 1985.John Rogers/Hulton Archive, via Getty Images
  • Tina Turner, whose explosive energy and singular rasp made her one of the most successful recording artists of all time, has died at 83.
  • Musicians, politicians and fans mourned Turner. “She was inspiring, warm, funny and generous,” Mick Jagger wrote.
  • Hear 11 of her greatest tracks, which show her mastery of R&B, rock and pop.
  • It is hard to think of a boundary Turner didn’t break, Jacob Bernstein writes. See her life in photos.
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

When transgender people sue to block anti-trans laws, they are also protecting the right to dress how one pleases, Kate Redburn writes.

To remove plastic from oceans, governments should focus on just 1,000 polluted rivers, Boyan Slat writes.

Here are columns by Pamela Paul on affirmative action and Charles Blow on the Republicans in the presidential race.

 
 

Enjoy everything The Times offers — all in one subscription. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes and more. Save with a new introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

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Celebrity barber Marcus Harvey and former N.B.A. player Grant Hill.Kim Raff for The New York Times

Superstar barbers: Their clients are celebrities. So are they.

Bussin and cakewalk: Editors released words from a dictionary of African American English.

Millionaire vs. billionaire: The mega-rich are just like us — they fight over home renovation, too.

Advice from Wirecutter: Try a timesaving laundry sorter.

Patio chic: How to hang your outdoor string lights correctly this summer.

Lives Lived: Bill Lee was a bassist and composer who scored the early films of his son Spike Lee and worked prolifically as a sideman for Bob Dylan and Aretha Franklin. He died at 94.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

A walk-off clincher: Matthew Tkachuk scored with 4.9 seconds left in the Panthers’ win over the Hurricanes, sending the No. 8 seed to the Stanley Cup Final.

Block mania: P.G.A. pro Michael Block is still trying to make sense of his newfound fame.

Superfan: The eccentric Yankees ballhawk who caught an Aaron Judge home run ball this week is more than a lucky spectator.

 

ARTS AND IDEAS

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Puccini’s “La Fanciulla del West.”Roger Mastroianni/The Cleveland Orchestra

Classical audiences return

Last fall, orchestras around the U.S. were in crisis: They were playing to concert halls that were often less than half full. “It was very visible, and very scary,” said Melia Tourangeau, the chief executive of the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra. But those fears as easing this spring, as orchestras find success winning back audiences with popular programs and collaborations on film screenings and theater productions.

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Bobbi Lin for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Eugene Jho.

These crispy chicken cutlets are infused with lemon.

 
What to Watch

The eight-episode Disney+ series “American Born Chinese,” loosely based on Gene Luen Yang’s graphic novel.

 
Now Time to Play
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%

The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was deductive. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 26, 2023

 

Good morning. We’re covering a Ukrainian counteroffensive, A.I. risks and “Barbie.”

 
 
 
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Ukrainian troops.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Any day now

Retaking land occupied by an enemy during war is a brutally difficult task. But a military trying to do so usually has one big advantage: surprise. The occupying force does not know when or where the attackers will strike.

In 1944, the U.S. and its allies tricked the Nazis into believing that an invasion of France would take place on a different part of the Atlantic coast than it did. Today, Ukraine is similarly hoping to surprise Russia with the start of a spring or summer counteroffensive. The Russians know that a major attack is coming but not the form it will take.

The outcome of that counteroffensive could shape the outcome of the war. A successful campaign by Ukraine, retaking territory that Russia now controls, could cause President Vladimir Putin to fear outright defeat and look for a face-saving peace deal. A failed counteroffensive could cause Ukraine’s Western allies to wonder whether the war is winnable and potentially push Ukraine toward an unfavorable truce.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll preview the coming phase of the war, with help from colleagues covering it. The counteroffensive could start at any point over the next several weeks.

The land bridge

The so-called land bridge that Russia has established in southeastern Ukraine is likely to be the focus:

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Source: Institute for the Study of War | Data as of May 22, 2023. | By The New York Times

The southern edge of the land bridge is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces invaded and seized almost a decade ago. Since the larger war began last year, Putin has also taken control of territory that connects Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine. “The Ukrainians want to break the land bridge,” Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington, told me.

The territory that Russia controls gives it several strategic advantages. One, Ukraine is cut off from about half of its coastline. Two, the territory includes a nuclear plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia that is a major producer of electricity.

Three, and perhaps most significantly, Russia can more easily supply its troops in Crimea. The land bridge is one of two routes for Russia’s military supplies to Crimea and towns in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, The Times’s Kyiv bureau chief. (The other is the Kerch Strait.)

Punching through

Experts have compared the war’s recent months to World War I, with both sides dug into trenches and neither making much progress. Russia lost tens of thousands of troops this year merely to capture Bakhmut, a marginal city in the Donbas.

Ukraine hopes that its counteroffensive will end this stalemate. Western allies have supplied the Ukrainian military with billions of dollars of equipment and trained its troops at camps in Germany over the past few months. The troops have learned a technique known as combined-arms warfare, in which different parts of the military work together to take territory. Tanks punch through enemy lines by rolling over trenches, for example, and infantry then spread out to hold the area.

“The counteroffensive will very likely start in multiple places, maybe in the south and the east,” Julian said. “Some of those will be feints. Some will be part of the main efforts.”

Ukraine still has fewer troops and less equipment than Russia, but Ukraine’s military has so far proven more effective — with better morale, smarter tactics and more advanced Western weapons — than Russia’s. The counteroffensive is effectively a bet that Ukraine can use those advantages not just to repel Russia but to retake large territories.

As Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a Ukraine correspondent, said, “If Ukraine manages to sever the land bridge, Russian troops will be under further strain and, more importantly, Ukraine will be in a better position to attack farther east and south, toward Crimea.”

Most experts do not believe Ukraine will retake Crimea anytime soon — or that this war will end with Crimea back under Ukrainian control. Still, Ukraine does not need that outcome for the counteroffensive to be a success. Any major progress could cause Putin and his aides to worry that a long war would bring further losses and eventually put Crimea at risk. “The Russian people do care about Crimea,” my colleague Helene Cooper said. Before the Soviet era, the region was part of Russia for decades.

In the favorable scenario for Ukraine, a peace deal in which Russia is expelled from everywhere but Crimea and parts of the Donbas region would become plausible. On the flip side, a failed counteroffensive and an unbroken land bridge would provide Putin with a big psychological victory and a foundation from which to launch future attacks.

An important factor is that Ukraine now has enough weapons for only one major push. If the Ukrainians have not made progress by the fall, when colder and wetter weather makes fighting harder, the Russian land bridge may begin to look impregnable.

As Helene points out, however, Ukraine has frequently exceeded expectations in this war. Even the fall of Bakhmut, while a disappointment, took months longer than analysts expected. In the months ahead, Ukraine’s military will try to accomplish perhaps its most difficult task since repelling Russia’s initial invasion.

For more

  • Russia struck a medical center in Dnipro, Ukrainian officials said.
  • The leader of a Russian mercenary group said his troops were starting to leave Bakhmut. They will be replaced by regular Russian forces.
 

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THE LATEST NEWS

Debt Limit
  • White House officials and Republican lawmakers are closing in on a deal that would raise the debt limit for two years.
  • The agreement taking shape would let Republicans point to spending cuts and let Democrats say that they limited the cuts.
  • The debt limit standoff is the first big test for Hakeem Jeffries as the House minority leader.
 
Politics
 
Climate
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Near the Roanoke River.Erin Schaff/The New York Times
 
Business
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

Christian Cooper, the Central Park birder falsely accused of threatening a white dog walker, makes the case for birding. “We love birds for a simple reason,” he writes. “They can fly.”

Here are columns by Gail Collins on Dianne Feinstein, Bret Stephens on Ethiopian Jews and Michelle Goldberg on Ron DeSantis.

 
 

Enjoy everything The Times offers — all in one subscription. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes and more. Save with a new introductory offer.

 

MORNING READS

Middle gets the armrests: A flight attendant offers 12 etiquette rules for flying.

A thrashing octopus: Was it having a nightmare?

The Oyster Farmers: A couple left their lives in Brooklyn to take over a farm on Long Island.

Modern Love: She lost the first and second loves of her life. She didn’t want to lose the third.

Change your sheets: It’s time for linen.

Advice from Wirecutter: Buy a label maker.

Lives Lived: Nicholas Gray helped make the unlikely combination of hot dogs with tropical fruit juices a New York City phenomenon with his eatery, Gray’s Papaya. He died at 86.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

The Celtics: Boston won Game 5 against the Heat last night, on their way back from a 3-0 series deficit.

N.H.L. survival: An overtime goal from Joe Pavelski saved Dallas’ season in its Game 4 win over Las Vegas last night.

Inside U.S.C.’s mess: Trojans athletic director Mike Bohn resigned a week ago. A new report said he created a “toxic atmosphere” at Cincinnati, his previous employer.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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“Barbie,” starring Margot Robbie.Warner Bros.

Blockbuster season

The summer movie season begins next week. Among the movies that have excited The Times’s critics:

  • Horror: “The Boogeyman,” inspired by a Stephen King story, about a young woman who battles a home-invading supernatural entity. (June 2)
  • Sci-fi: “Asteroid City,” Wes Anderson’s take on the 1950s fascination with flying saucers, featuring his usual star-studded cast. (June 16)
  • Action: “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” Harrison Ford’s final film in the franchise. (June 30)
  • Animation: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” the sequel to the Oscar-winning “Into the Spider-Verse.” (June 2)
 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Andrew Sullivan for The New York Times

Make homemade pesto — it’s the season.

 
Memorial Day

Get outside this weekend — hiking is good for your mental and physical health

 
News Quiz
 
Now Time to Play
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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was inhibitor. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. Meher Ahmad joins Times Opinion’s special projects team as a staff editor.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 27, 2023

 

Good morning. It’s Memorial Day Weekend, signaling the start of summer, ready or not.

 
 
 
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María Jesús Contreras

Time warp

When I picture time passing, I think of a calendar — specifically, a full-year calendar printed on one page, the sort that a bank or a restaurant might hand out as a freebie, emblazoned with its logo.

The year is laid out as a grid: three rows, four months to a row. I picture each row as seasons elapsing: The top row starts mostly cold and dreary with January, but by the end of the row, in April, it’s milder and brighter and there’s this feeling of almost arriving into the second row, where things open up. May through August is the marrow of the year, when daylight is at its maximum, when things feel a little looser and more possible. The middle row is, for summer partisans, really the only row worth languishing in.

However you picture time, you probably have a distinct feeling about this weekend, Memorial Day, summer’s unofficial start. Disbelief seems to be the prevailing response this year: How can it be summer again, where has the time gone? “Time’s a flat circle, a record spinning, always and forever returning to its start,” my colleague Sam Sifton wrote in the Cooking newsletter yesterday, and he’s right. We’re still figuring out the tricks time pulled over the past few years, how it stretched and contracted, sped up and slowed and there was, for a while there, time to contemplate it.

Ready or not, it’s summer again. The calendar has decreed it — even if the weather or your wardrobe or your kids or your garden aren’t ready. Memorial Day weekend forces a mind-set shift. Beaches open up, mattresses are on sale, you can smell someone grilling. (Maybe it’s you.) The middle row is in full swing.

If it all feels too abrupt and you’re struggling to catch up, might I suggest planning your summer movie schedule? I’ve been patiently awaiting Nicole Holofcener’s latest, “You Hurt My Feelings,” starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tobias Menzies, which opens this weekend. Other highlights: John Slattery directs Jon Hamm and Tina Fey in “Maggie Moore(s),” opening on June 16. There’s a Wham! documentary coming to Netflix on July 5. “Indiana Jones” arrives on June 30, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” on July 21.

We’ve also got a bunch of selections for your beach- or park- or couch-reading pleasure: Try a thriller, a romance, perhaps an audiobook? The two audiobooks on our list that are about birds sound enchanting and seasonally appropriate.

And of course, there’s always summer’s unofficial (or perhaps it’s official?) fruit, the strawberry, which stars in three Melissa Clark recipes, each of which seems poised to join Jerrelle Guy’s strawberry spoon cake in my personal pantheon of the world’s best desserts.

For more

  • From 2019, 100 years of Memorial Day coverage in The Times.
  • If you find yourself in traffic this weekend, here’s a game to calm your nerves. (Back-seat drivers only.)
  • Or, listen to my story of the poem that brings me comfort when times are tough. It’s on New York Times Audio, a new iOS app that Times news subscribers can download here.
 

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THE WEEK IN CULTURE

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Tina Turner performing in Paris in 1987.Bertrand Guay/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
  • Tina Turner, who died at 83, was a tornado and a treasure. She lived “so galactically, so contagiously,” that Wesley Morris, a Times critic, hardly believed she could die.
  • In the Swiss town where she lived, Turner was a neighbor, not a star. No one bothered her when she went shopping or stood in line at the post office.
  • Bob Mackie, a designer, reflected on dressing Turner for years. See the looks.
  • A live action adaptation of “The Little Mermaid” was released in the U.S. Halle Bailey, who plays Ariel, discussed the film’s racist backlash.
  • Despite the uproar, “The Little Mermaid” stays dutiful to the original. That’s to its detriment, Wesley Morris writes. See one of the scenes.
  • Gustavo Dudamel, the star maestro set to take over the New York Philharmonic, is leaving the Paris Opera four years ahead of schedule.
  • A new trailer for “Barbie” was quickly converted to memes, The Cut reports.
  • The social highlight of the Cannes Film Festival was a 100th anniversary party for Warner Bros., attended by Hollywood’s biggest stars and media executives.
  • University of Alabama sorority sisters assessed the accuracy of a documentary about their rush process.
  • A documentary about the actress Mary Tyler Moore examines her life personifying a kind of hopeful, second-wave feminism.
  • Padma Lakshmi, the longtime host of “Top Chef,” visits immigrant communities throughout the United States in the second season of “Taste the Nation.”
 

THE LATEST NEWS

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
 

CULTURE CALENDAR

📚 “Genealogy of a Murder: Four Generations, Three Families, One Fateful Night” (Tuesday): I can’t wait to dive into Lisa Belkin’s true crime tale that charts the histories of three men involved in a 1960 murder. In his review in The Times, Robert Kolker called it “a somewhat knotty yet exhilarating, intimate study of fate, chance and the wildly meaningful intersections of disparate lives.” Doesn’t that sound enticing?

🎶 Cowboy Junkies, “Such Ferocious Beauty” (Friday): The Canadian alt-country band Cowboy Junkies has a new album coming out. If you, like me, can still sing every word to every song on the group’s 1988 album “The Trinity Session,” you’ll be happy to know that Margo Timmins’s voice is as melancholy and enchanting as ever.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

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RECIPE OF THE WEEK

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Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Classic Deviled Eggs

It’s Memorial Day Weekend, the official start to cookout and picnic season. That means there’s a good chance you’re contemplating deviling some eggs for nibbling while the grill heats up. You can’t go wrong with this classic recipe, filled with egg yolks, mayonnaise and mustard spiked with hot sauce. You can boil and peel the eggs the day before, and even mix together the filling. But don’t spoon it into the whites until as close to serving time as possible. And be sure to make extra: You never know how long it might take for those coals to catch.

 

REAL ESTATE

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Shelter Island Heights, N.Y.Liz Glasgow Studios

What you get for $2.7 million: A Carpenter Gothic showplace in Shelter Island Heights, N.Y.; an 1890 home in Key West, Fla.; or a midcentury-modern house in Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

The hunt: She wanted a home in the Hamptons for $4 million. Which one did she choose? Play our game.

Lighting for summer nights: Outdoor lighting makes everything more magical.

Montauk trailer park: A different kind of second home.

A garden as art: The designer of the High Line shares his secrets.

 

LIVING

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Aja Dang-Puspos spent her solo bachelorette trip at a spa in Arizona.Krissy Mae

Solo bachelorette: Some brides are ditching the parties in favor of a trip alone.

Digital spring cleaning: Try these tips for healthier engagement on social media.

Hold it together: Make comfort food and ditch the to-do list.

Joy around the world: What are the happiest countries doing right?

 

ADVICE FROM WIRECUTTER

Make your vacuum last

If your long-weekend plans include tidying your home for summer guests, give your vacuum some T.L.C. to make it more effective — even the best model won’t clean well if you don’t occasionally tend to it. Glutted dustbins, stinky filters, and hair tangles reduce suction and can lead to the premature death of battery and motor. Simple, routine maintenance, like cleaning the filter and untangling the brush roll, will keep your vacuum running for years and save money over time. — Sabine Heinlein

Wirecutter is giving away a Miele Complete C3 Calima vacuum. Enter for a chance to win.

 

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

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Tampa Bay pitcher Jalen Beeks.Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays, M.L.B.: Enjoy some baseball with your Sunday morning coffee. The Rays have the best record in the majors this season, and it’s not a fluke — by some measures, they have the top offense and the best starting pitching, Eno Sarris notes in The Athletic. The Dodgers, who lead their division, are thriving thanks to Mookie Betts, an All-Star outfielder who was asked to play shortstop because of injuries on the team and turned out to be great at it. 11:30 a.m. Eastern tomorrow, streaming on Peacock.

For more

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was blocked. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

See the hardest Spelling Bee words from this week.

Take the news quiz to see how well you followed this week’s headlines.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times. — Melissa

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 28, 2023

 

Good morning. A debt deal might struggle to pass Congress, despite support from party leaders.

 
 
 
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Kevin McCarthy, the House speaker.Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Preventing catastrophe

America is a little closer to averting a self-imposed economic crisis.

President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House leader, announced yesterday that they had reached a deal to increase the amount of money the government can borrow. The deal includes caps on federal spending, additional work requirements for food stamps and welfare, and reforms to build energy projects more quickly. Altogether, it is the kind of spending deal that Democrats and Republicans have agreed to multiple times over the past few decades.

But the agreement is remarkable because of how close the country has come to calamity this time. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. will run out of money as early as June 5 — in just a few days. At that point, the federal government could be forced to default on its debts, potentially setting off a global financial crisis (as this newsletter has explained).

The bill’s passage in Congress is not guaranteed. Today’s newsletter will explain the deal struck by Biden and McCarthy — and the main thing that could still go wrong.

A bipartisan deal

The final agreement is a compromise. Many Republicans wanted steeper cuts, and many Democrats wanted no cuts. The deal landed in between. “I don’t think everybody is going to be happy at the end of the day,” McCarthy said on Thursday. “That’s not how this system works.”

First, the deal would raise the debt limit for two years. This moves any future debt limit fight to after the 2024 election.

The spending caps at the center of the agreement target federal programs besides Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the military — such as education, scientific research and border security. The caps would not actually reduce spending, but aim to make it grow more slowly than inflation and the economy. This arrangement lets both sides claim a win of sorts: Republicans can call it a spending cut, since spending will grow more slowly than it might have otherwise. And Democrats can say they prevented actual cuts.

The deal would also claw back some of the funds previously allocated to the Internal Revenue Service to crack down on rich tax cheats. Under the deal, some of the I.R.S. funds could be used to mitigate other spending cuts. That reflects the bipartisan nature of the talks, with both sides getting wins: Republicans get to claim they successfully cut I.R.S. funding, and Democrats get to use the money to soften other cuts they never wanted.

Similarly, the permitting reforms in the deal could enable more clean energy projects, a Democratic priority, but also more oil and gas projects, which Republicans favor.

One last hurdle

The big question now: Will the deal pass? The right flank of the House Republicans has a big say. Those lawmakers have a history of doing everything they can to block spending deals they disapprove of. They could do so again, and they have sufficient power to kill the deal because McCarthy has only a nine-vote majority.

McCarthy has tried to avoid a mutiny by involving some of the most conservative members in debt limit talks and putting them in leadership positions. But there is no guarantee they stick with him — especially if they believe he went too far in his concessions to the White House.

There are two leading scenarios. In one, far-right Republicans vote against the deal but let it pass, and McCarthy secures the needed votes from Democratic lawmakers willing to back his compromise legislation with Biden. That result would be a vindication for McCarthy’s approach to the speakership: By bringing his most conservative members into the fold, he’ll have stopped them from taking more drastic action.

In the other scenario, far-right Republicans essentially tank the agreement. They could call a vote on whether to oust McCarthy as speaker and, because House Republicans have such a narrow majority, McCarthy could lose. (Remember: It took McCarthy 15 ballots to win the speakership in the first place.)

Conservative Republicans might stop short of such a step to avoid being blamed for the aftermath, said my colleague Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent. If the federal government defaults on its debts and economic catastrophe follows, it will be clear that the hard right allowed this to happen by blocking a deal that a majority of lawmakers were ready to pass.

With that scenario in mind, conservative Republicans may let a deal go through even as they vote against it.

More on the debt limit

 

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NEWS

Politics
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The House chamber at the Texas Capitol.Mike Osborne for The New York Times
 
International
 
Other Big Stories
 

FROM OPINION

The Republican case against student-debt relief relies on the false claim that it will hurt a Missouri loan authority’s revenue, Eleni Schirmer and Louise Seamster write.

Here are columns by Jamelle Bouie on “sub-national authoritarianism” and Ezra Klein on artificial intelligence.

 
 

The Sunday question: Is Gov. Ron DeSantis a strong candidate for president?

Start as you mean to go on, they say,” The Washington Post’s Alexandra Petri writes of the Florida governor and his glitchy campaign announcement. But DeSantis’s bumbling launch has led people to underestimate his chances, Rich Lowry writes for Politico.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

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Geena DavisMagdalena Wosinska for The New York Times

How sexist is Hollywood? Check out Geena Davis’s spreadsheet.

ChatGPT: A lawyer used A.I. to prepare a court filing. Whoops.

Vows: They made their wedding a love letter to Black culture.

Lives Lived: Stanley Engerman was a scholar who used data to challenge commonly held ideas about American slavery, including that it was unprofitable and inefficient. He died at 87.

 

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ADVICE FOR LIFE

Guess these 10 wacky words from the Scripps National Spelling Bee.

Block out annoying noise from your neighbor.

Trick your brain into enjoying a workout.

 

BOOKS

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Unsparing memoir: “Women We Buried, Women We Burned” chronicles one woman’s quest to create a fulfilling life on her own terms.

Our editors’ picks: The novel “Ascension,” about the sudden appearance of a mountain far larger than Everest, and eight other books.

By the Book: In 2018, Tina Turner wanted to invite Dante to her dinner party.

Times best sellers: Samantha Irby’s new collection of essays “Quietly Hostile” is on the paperback nonfiction list.

 

THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE

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Luca Locatelli for The New York Times

On the cover: While much of the world struggles with housing, Vienna is a renters’ utopia.

Ethicist: “My father was awful. Do I have to plan his funeral?”

Vermeer: Look beyond the beauty to see violence.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch For
  • Tomorrow is Memorial Day in the U.S..
  • DeSantis will hold his first in-person presidential campaign event on Tuesday in Des Moines, Iowa.
  • The Scripps National Spelling Bee Finals will be held Thursday.
  • Monthly U.S. employment numbers will be released Friday.
 
What to Cook This Week
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%
Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

The recipes in this edition of Five Weeknight Dishes, Emily Weinstein’s newsletter, all work for Memorial Day weekend gatherings and the days that follow. This stovetop barbecue chicken makes a cookout favorite without a grill; orecchiette salad uses halloumi, a cheese that sears beautifully, for croutons; and Kenji López-Alt’s dry-brined salmon calls for salting the fish beforehand — a trick that results in crisper skin and juicier flesh.

 

NOW TIME TO PLAY

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The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was longboat. Here is today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 29, 2023

 

If you aren’t lucky enough to be spending the holiday in a national park, today’s newsletter is meant to transport you to one through photographs. — David Leonhardt

 
 

Good morning. We’re covering national parks, Turkey’s presidential election and the “Succession” finale.

 
 
 
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Bryce Canyon National ParkErin Schaff/The New York Times

Getting ready for Memorial Day

Today is something of a curtain raiser for the U.S. National Parks system, ushering in its busiest season.

Last year, nearly 312 million people visited the parks, hiking across the Grand Canyon, posting Instagram stories from Joshua Tree and waiting for Old Faithful by Yellowstone’s rainbow pools. (Reminder: Don’t touch the bison calves!) On Memorial Day last year, so many people headed to the sites that many of their parking lots were full by midmorning.

At Bryce Canyon National Park in Utah, home to 50-million-year-old rock formations, park rangers start clearing the way for visitors weeks ahead of the busy season. They restore dozens of miles of trails — removing debris and navigating steep cliffs on foot before the snow even melts, as my colleague Linda Qiu reported in a story with photos by Erin Schaff. Similar preparation plays out at the system’s parks around the country.

The rangers’ tasks make for a strenuous job, and one that’s getting harder as climate change brings floods, landslides and fires.

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A crew clearing rocks and damage from storms. Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Cleaning up erosion

Over millions of years, wind and rain have shaped the limestone in Bryce Canyon into maze of spire-shaped rocks shooting into the air at 8,000 feet. The process is responsible for the park’s dramatic beauty. But it’s also a pain for rangers.

Each winter, the rain and snow sand down the rock faces and degrade trails. Each spring, crews clear hiking paths of debris, mostly by hand to limit destruction to the natural habitat.

“The amount of physical labor used to clear the trails was so surprising to me,” Erin said. “The rocks they lift are incredibly heavy. Like, how can you repetitively do this all summer to your back?”

Unusually intense storms and a wet winter this past year wrought severe damage, delaying trail openings and complicating cleanup. One side of the trail remains closed as crews continue repairs, digging out the surface of the route and installing wire baskets filled with large rocks along the perimeter to divert water and facilitate drainage.

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Search-and-rescue training.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Training for emergencies

The rock slides and high elevation pose a risk for visitors, too.

Bryce averages around 40 search-and-rescue operations a year, often to help people who have fallen. Rangers and local volunteers undergo basic technical rescue training, learning to use ropes and high-angle equipment for more complicated rescues.

Here’s one example: Last summer, a visitor could not complete a strenuous eight-mile hike. She tried to take a shortcut to return to the starting point and became separated from her grandchildren. Hours later, rangers found her clinging to a precipitous slope, unable to move. Securing ropes, they descended and lifted her to safety.

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A ranger looking through a telescope.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Ensuring dark skies

The rangers have to fit all of their cleanup and prep work into daylight hours. At night, their job is to keep the lights off, protecting Bryce’s status as a dark-sky park: After sunset, less than 1 percent of Bryce Canyon is lit by artificial light.

“It’s clear how proud they are of the uniqueness of Bryce’s night sky,” Linda said. “They’re conserving the park, but they’re also preserving a view of the Milky Way.”

 

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, and his wife, Emine.Ali Unal/Associated Press
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey won re-election in a runoff, overcoming a reeling economy and anger over an earthquake’s devastation.
  • NATO countries are worried about his grip on the country and his ties to Vladimir Putin. Here are five election takeaways.
  • Erdogan has played up Turkey’s Ottoman past, using monuments and TV shows to rally his voters.
 
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Memorial Day
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A service member visits the gravesite of his friend.Pete Marovich for The New York Times
 
Politics
 
Other Big Stories
 
Opinions

This Memorial Day weekend, Kayla M. Williams remembers the civilians and service members who died outside combat.

Here are columns by Ross Douthat on Elon Musk and Ron DeSantis, Maureen Dowd on the humanities and David French on why conservatives are wrong about masculinity.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

Canceling the Hamptons: Young people are staying away, turned off by conspicuous wealth.

News knowledge: Have you taken our latest news quiz? The average score was 8.8.

Metropolitan Diary: Savoring a solo pizza and Negroni moment.

Advice from Wirecutter: Learn how to clean a bird feeder.

Lives Lived: George Maharis was a 1960s television heartthrob, starring in the series “Route 66.” He died at 94.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Game 7: Boston is favored to win the series, which would be a historic comeback from a 3-0 deficit. The game is tonight.

N.H.L.: The Stars will face the Golden Knights tonight after forcing a Game 6 in their Western Conference final series.

Premier League: Luton Town is joining the top level of English football after 31 years of waiting.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Logan Roy and Tom in “Succession.”David M. Russell/HBO

Goodbye to ‘Succession’

HBO’s “Succession,” which aired its finale last night, was in many ways the late-capitalist heir to “Dallas,” the Times TV critic James Poniewozik wrote, a prime-time saga that used delicious dialogue and sibling rivalries to explore the nature of wealth. What made the shows different, though, was the ways that wealth has changed since the 1980s — namely, the rich are now much richer. “The holdings of Waystar Royco,” James writes, “make Ewing Oil look like a franchise gas station.”

More on “Succession”:

  • Read a recap of last night’s final episode (it contains spoilers).
 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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James Ransom for The New York Times

Need a salad for today? This one comes together in 10 minutes.

 
What to Read

New books by showcase young women embarking on journeys of discovery about family and self.

 
Now Time to Play
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The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were finitude, infinitude, unfitted and unidentified. Here are today’s puzzle and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. On Memorial Day in 2004, a memorial to World War II veterans was dedicated on the National Mall in Washington, D.C.

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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 30, 2023

 

The Times has recently created a Weather desk, and you’ll be hearing from one of its journalists in today’s newsletter. Judson Jones, a meteorologist who has been fascinated by the weather since he was a boy tracking tornadoes in Arkansas, offers a preview of the coming summer. — David Leonhardt

 
 
Author Headshot

By Judson Jones

Reporter/Meteorologist

Good morning. It could be a hotter summer than usual for much of the U.S.

 
 
 
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The Rockaways in July 2021.Karsten Moran for The New York Times

Getting warmer

This summer is likely to be hot in the U.S., and not just because it is typically the season of swelter.

Ocean temperatures, soil moisture, forecast models and long-term trends are all contributing factors in predicting a warmer-than-normal summer this year. The coasts of New England could be hot because the Atlantic Ocean already feels like summer, while the center of scorching temperatures will once again almost certainly be the Southwest.

I can almost hear the groan from those of you who are skeptical that meteorologists can deliver a good forecast seven days out, let alone for an entire summer. But before you send me, a meteorologist, accusatory emails, allow me to explain how predictions for an entire season work.

Experts at the National Weather Service create the forecasts by considering the land, water and atmospheric conditions that could influence and control weather patterns over the coming months. They use words like “leaning” if they believe there is a slight chance of temperatures or rainfall being outside the norm.

The map below, which shows the experts’ predictions for this summer, doesn’t necessarily mean that Arizona will be hotter than Michigan. It means that the chances of an extra-hot summer are much higher in Arizona than they are in Michigan.

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Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA | Data is the outlook for June, July and August 2023 as of May 18, 2023. | By The New York Times

If you find yourself this summer in an area where above-average heat is expected — like New York, Boston, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles or Seattle, to name a few — it doesn’t mean every day will be that way. What the experts are suggesting is that, over the next three months, there is at least a chance, maybe even a likelihood, that it will be warmer than it has been in the past three decades. That time span has consistently featured a trend toward warmer summers, magnifying extreme heat because of human-induced climate change.

In the rest of the newsletter, I’ll explain what different regions of the U.S. should expect this summer. While much of the nation will be hot, there is quite a bit of variation — it’s a big country, after all.

Around the country

Forecasters are expecting a hotter summer in the Northeast because ocean temperatures near the coast are already much higher than usual. That might make for a pleasant swim at New England beaches; it will also increase the air temperature. Because coastal waters are a major factor in driving up temperatures, experts are less sure whether it will be a warmer summer inland, in places like western New York and Pennsylvania.

In the South, warmer weather is also likely, with a greater likelihood near the coasts. But the weather story of the summer may end up being the rain: In June, forecasters say, Florida and other southeastern states could be drenched, mainly because of some possible early-season tropical cyclones. It’s possible that the Midwest and Great Lakes also have a rainier summer than usual.

The Southwest will probably see above-average summer temperatures and below-average rainfall. That’s because the southwest monsoon — a seasonal shift of winds that help bring about rainstorms — is expected to have a sluggish start.

Forecasters predicted above-average temperatures for the West Coast, though they’re not as confident about it as they are for the East Coast. They are also expecting a drier-than-normal summer in the Northwest partly because El Niño, a Pacific weather pattern that is on the verge of forming in the summer, tends to lead to below-average rainfall.

More on weather

  • The Southwest is especially vulnerable to summer blackouts. If a heat wave coincided with a blackout in Phoenix, it could overwhelm the city’s hospitals.
  • You can now get alerts from The Times about extreme weather in your community and other places you care about. Sign up here.
 

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Kyiv, Ukraine. Nicole Tung for The New York Times
 
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Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrating.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
 
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Business
 
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Opinions

“Succession” was a devastating commentary on the way our politics blur fiction and reality, Kurt Andersen argues.

It’s up to Congress to undo the damage the Supreme Court has done to the Clean Water Act, Jim Murphy writes.

Big retailers like Walmart are strong-arming suppliers. Local businesses are paying the price, Stacy Mitchell writes.

Here are columns by Peter Coy on the debt limit deal and Michelle Cottle on the Republican field.

 
 

The Games Sale. Limited time offer.

Want to play all our games? Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Reach Genius on Spelling Bee, strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more.

 

MORNING READS

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The New York Times

Vanishing van Gogh: The trail of a missing painting led to Caribbean tax havens and a jailed Chinese billionaire.

Manhattanhenge: It’s all over New Yorkers’ feeds.

Tom and Greg: The “Succession” actors weigh in on the finale and their characters’ relationship.

Tina Turner tourists: She immortalized her hometown in song — drawing visitors to Nutbush, Tenn.

Summer friends: Have a summer house? Loose acquaintances are probably in your DMs.

Bug killing: Use the best gear and most effective repellent.

Memorial Day sale: Some are still going on. These are the real deal.

Advice from Wirecutter: Find a good iPhone screen protector.

Lives Lived: Sultan Khan beat some of the world’s top chess players despite growing up with little access to chess books. He died in 1966. Read about his life.

 

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

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Caleb Martin shoots over a Celtics defender.Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Blowout win: The Miami Heat beat the Boston Celtics in Game 7. They will face the Denver Nuggets in the N.B.A. finals.

Golden Knights advance, too: Las Vegas is back in the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in the franchise’s six-year history after a 6-0 rout in Dallas.

The next Tiger? The world is ready for Rose Zhang, the golf wunderkind who makes her pro debut this weekend.

 

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ARTS AND IDEAS

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Fort Walton Beach, Fla.Lawren Simmons for The New York Times

Seaside vibes

If you’ve been to the beach in the past decade, you’ve probably seen the logo: Salt Life, written in a brash font. Maggie Lange explores how the brand evolved from a neck tattoo to become a symbol of oceanside living that’s inescapable along the Eastern Seaboard. “Salt Life has kind of encompassed everything that I do,” said Allen Cobbs, a Florida resident who spends most of his free time at the beach, fishing or lounging. “For me, the words mean a lot.”

 

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
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Christopher Simpson for The New York Times

Make a chicken sandwich with your Memorial Day barbecue leftovers.

 
What to Watch

See video highlights from the New York City Ballet.

 
Now Time to Play

Here are today’s Spelling Bee and yesterday’s answers. The Morning will no longer include the previous day’s pangrams, which will continue to be available to subscribers here above each day’s puzzle.

 
 

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. The Times’s Kellen Browning won the Sidney Award, handed out monthly for outstanding journalism, for his article on tipping delivery drivers that was also featured in The Morning.

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The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lauren Hard

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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May 31, 2023

 

Good morning. The bipartisan debt limit deal still isn’t assured of passing.

 
 
 
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Speaker Kevin McCarthy.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Republican unrest

Can House Republicans behave as the members of a well-functioning political party would? Or are they still the same party that has cycled through one House leader after another over the past decade, unable to find one who can unite various factions?

The past few days of debt-ceiling talks have brought conflicting signals. And Republicans don’t have much more time to choose a path: To avoid a default that many economists believe would be extremely damaging, Congress probably needs to act within the next several days.

For much of the past several weeks, House Republicans have looked decidedly functional. In April, they passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling that included deep spending cuts and was akin to an initial offer in a negotiation. This weekend, Republican leaders finalized a compromise with President Biden in which each side got some of what it wanted. The compromise bill looked to be on course to pass — even as conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats criticized aspects of it.

Yesterday, however, the compromise seemed to be at risk of coming apart because of Republican infighting. “Not one Republican should vote for this bill,” Representative Chip Roy of Texas, an influential ultraconservative, said yesterday afternoon.

Another hard-right Republican, Dan Bishop of North Carolina, was even harsher about his party’s leader, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and the compromise deal that McCarthy negotiated. “I’m fed up with the lies,” Bishop said. “I’m fed up with the lack of courage, the cowardice.” Some outside conservative groups, like the Club for Growth and the Heritage Foundation, have also criticized the compromise.

It remains unclear whether these complaints are mostly performative or whether they threaten the bill’s prospects. McCarthy continued to express optimism yesterday that the bill would pass, and the House Rules Committee gave him a procedural victory by voting to allow the full House to debate it today.

If the bill passes, all this back and forth will be relatively unimportant, and the outcome will still be a victory for McCarthy, albeit a messy one. But it is also a reminder of the chaos that is now a regular part of Republican Party politics. By comparison, congressional Democrats have been much more unified over the past 15 years and able to pass further-reaching legislation — on health care, the climate and other issues.

If a debt-ceiling bill fails and the government defaults on its obligations, the country could be facing a whole new level of turmoil. Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, has estimated that the government could run out of borrowing authority on Monday.

“I think it is probably going to pass, but there is obviously a lot of Republican unrest,” Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, told me last night. “Still rocky times ahead.”

The latest

 

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International
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A damaged apartment building in Moscow.Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
 
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