The Economy

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Great turnaround of '24

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Nearly all the indicators released in recent weeks tell the same story: evaporating inflation alongside still-humming economic activity. Why it matters: It's a turnaround from earlier in the inflation fight, when the strong economic data may have spooked financial markets and policymakers. Now it's a sign that inflation can be beaten without a painful downturn, Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown write in Axios Macro. "Any way you look at it, the American economy looks upbeat," Lael Brainard, the top White House economic adviser, said during a briefing with reporters yesterday. "We looked historically: We've never had a year where inflation has declined this fast while the economy has grown above trend, and unemployment has remained stable at a low rate." What's new: Some of the last major data points before Fed officials' meeting next week were released yesterday. The core inflation measure that excludes energy and food prices — which is considered to be a better gauge of underlying inflation — was 2.9%, compared to 3.2% the previous month. Even more impressive: The core index is running at a 1.5% annualized rate over the last three months — below the Fed's 2% target. 🔎 The intrigue: It's a very different dynamic than just a year ago. Recall in early 2023 when a run of strong data showed booming consumer spending and eye-popping job gains — paired with hotter inflation data. At the time, it raised concerns the Fed might have to slam the brakes on the economy even harder. Now officials face the opposite scenario — inflation looks to be cooling much faster than many expected. That has allowed them to open the door to rate cuts later this year — though exactly when that will happen is still hazy. The bottom line: "[W]e are no longer allowed to say 'we are landing softly' when we have been sitting on the runway for many months," tweeted Arindrajit Dube, an economist at UMass Amherst. "The great inflation of 2021/22 is over and that's it."

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🎲 Charted: Casino spending soars

Data: FactSet, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Chart: Axios Visuals Americans are taking their cash to the casino at record rates. Why it matters: It may be another sign that consumer mood — which has been incredibly sour in the post-pandemic era, is getting sunnier, Axios' Matt Phillips writes.

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Relief from high chicken prices

Chicken prices remain high in both the U.S. and Canada. Photo: Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images The booming renewable-fuel industry may soon help bring down the price of chicken — which has stayed expensive even as inflation has cooled down. 🌱 How it works: Making plant-based fuels produces enormous quantities of soymeal as a byproduct, Bloomberg reports. Soymeal is a major part of animal feed, and all that extra supply will likely bring down costs. High feed costs are part of the reason meat and chicken are so expensive right now — feed is about 60% of the cost of raising chickens and pigs, according to Bloomberg. So bringing those costs down should translate into savings for consumers. 🐓 Yes, but: It'll take a while, experts told Bloomberg, and meat producers still face other high costs, like labor. "Meal is going to be priced to disappear and go away," agriculture consultant Gordon Denny told Bloomberg. As a result, "protein in all forms will get a little less expensive."

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🤔 Trump claims stock market credit

Screenshot via Truth Social Here's a new one: Trump argued today that he — not Biden — should get credit for the stock market, claiming that investors have priced in his victory in November. Why it matters: The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high today for the sixth time in seven trading days. Reality check: The polls project an exceedingly close election, and there's no evidence Wall Street is operating under the assumption that Trump is the guaranteed winner. Flashback: Trump predicted in October 2020 that the stock market would crash if Biden won the election. ps:What a piece of work this cult leader is!!!!!

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🧐 USA mood: Feeling bad — but better

Chart: Gallup New this morning: Gallup says its Economic Confidence Index has improved each of the past two months to its highest point in two years. Why it matters: Our readers in the White House and at Biden HQ in Wilmington, Del., will definitely take it — but can hold the high fives. The catch: The index is still negative, since "a steady majority of Americans continue to say recent price increases have created financial hardship for them," Gallup notes. Explore the data.

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Job openings ticked up in December, in sign of steady labor market

Employers were still looking to hire as 2023 came to a close. That's the takeaway from a steady-as-she-goes Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, out Tuesday morning.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/30/us-job-openings-report-steady-december?

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📈 1 big thing: America's money mojo

Data: IMF World Economic Outlook. Chart: Axios Visuals The U.S. economy grew faster than any other advanced economy last year — by a wide margin — and is on track to do so again in 2024, Axios' Neil Irwin writes. Why it matters: America's outperformance is rooted in its distinctive structural strengths, policy choices and some luck. It reflects a fundamental resilience in the world's largest economy that's easy to overlook with the nation's problems. All countries dealt with the same problems of post-pandemic inflation and high interest rates. But the U.S. managed to achieve solid growth despite those headwinds. Strong growth in the U.S. labor force was one factor: More Americans chose to enter the workforce, and immigration surged. The U.S. also experienced strong productivity growth fueled by an innovative corporate sector and — Biden administration officials argue — big federal investments in infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. 🧮 By the numbers: U.S. GDP looks to have grown 2.5% in 2023, according to the IMF's hot-off-the-presses World Economic Outlook, the highest among the G7 economies. (Japan was second at 1.9%.) IMF economists forecast similarly best-in-class growth this year, with 2.1% U.S. growth. (Second place: Canada at 1.4%.) 🔎 Between the lines: Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues that an important part of the story is the pandemic, which pushed more Americans toward higher-productivity work. "The enormous labor market churn of COVID in 2020-21 had the unintended benefit of moving millions of lower-income workers to better jobs, more income security, and/or running their own businesses," Posen tells Axios. 🥊 Reality check: It's not just that the U.S. is doing well. It's that other major economies have distinctive problems holding back growth. Japan has a shrinking population and low immigration rates. So even when its economy is doing well, growth is lower than in the U.S. The U.K. is still working through the supply disruptions triggered by Brexit.

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Fed keeps interest rates steady, needs "greater confidence" in inflation decline before rate cuts

The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would hold interest rates steady and that the central bank would not pivot to slashing borrowing costs until it is more confident that inflation has been defeated.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/federal-reserve-hold-interest-rates-central-bank?

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📉 Stock market's bad day

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals Yesterday was the S&P 500's worst day since September, Axios Markets co-author Matt Phillips writes. Fed chair Jerome Powell doused market hopes that the Fed could cut rates in a couple of months. Big Tech stocks, burned by the downside of high expectations, triggered a sharp slide. The good news: The S&P is still up 1.6% for the month. The Nasdaq is up about 1%.

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AP-NORC poll finds an uptick in positive ratings of the US economy, but it’s not boosting Biden

WASHINGTON (AP) — Stocks are near record highs. Growth was surprisingly strong last year. And once-hot inflation has begun to cool. But so far, U.S. adults are feeling only slightly better about the economy.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-poll-survey-economy-trump-election-dca1b60f6749d5eb50bc0e7600814855?

Powell: Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates, though not likely for months

WASHINGTON (AP) — Interest rate cuts are coming. Just not yet.

https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-inflation-prices-interest-rates-cuts-5880d78c4664484cf366bb1aeb2bb63d?

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💡 Layoffs = drop in the bucket

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED. Chart: Axios Visuals Layoffs are hovering around historically low levels — despite job cuts at high-profile tech and media companies, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: While the job market is cooling, it's still pretty strong. The number of people filing unemployment claims ticked up slightly to 224,000 for the week ending Jan. 27, according to data out yesterday. That's a low number by historical standards — only slightly higher than at the height of the 2022 jobs boom.

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🚧 Walmart adding 150+ stores

Photo Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: George Frey/Getty

Calling it "Investing in America," Walmart will open over 150 stores in the U.S. over the next five years in a major reversal by the nation's largest retailer. Why it matters: Walmart hasn't opened a new store in over two years. It has closed a couple hundred underperforming locations since 2016, Axios' Rebecca Falconer and Kelly Tyko write. The company has doubled down on online and technology investments, including its Walmart+ membership program and a drone delivery trial. The first two new stores will open this spring in Atlanta and Santa Rosa Beach, Fla. Keep reading.

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Red-hot labor market

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The U.S. economy is off to a blazing start to 2024, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write. Employers look to be hiring at a furious pace, joblessness remains low and wage growth is beating inflation — developments that all defy predictions of a more muted labor market. 📈 By the numbers: The U.S. added 353,000 new jobs last month, defying expectations that 2023's red-hot labor market might begin to slow. Average hourly wages are up 4.5% over the past year, likely exceeding inflation over the same period as price increases continue to cool down. 🚀 What they're saying: "If the dominant labor market narrative in 2023 was slow and steady moderation, then 2024 began fast and furious," Indeed economist Nick Bunker wrote in a note. 🤑 What we're watching: The strong jobs numbers make it even less likely that the Fed will start cutting interest rates soon. Go deeper.

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The US didn’t just avoid a recession — it’s adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding 353,000 jobs in January in the latest sign of the economy’s continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-f314482e7e9d85e7db0e3f8713bb6273?

U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected

Job growth posted a surprisingly strong increase in January, demonstrating again that the U.S. labor market is solid and poised to support broader economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/us-economy-added-353000-jobs-in-january-much-better-than-expected.html

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💰 Charted: Workers are winning

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals Hourly wages rose 0.6% in January from the previous month and are up 4.5% from a year earlier — outpacing inflation. Why it matters: The pay numbers, part of an absolute banger of a jobs report released Friday, are another sign that the labor market is strong and workers, in some industries, still have leverage, Axios' Emily Peck writes.

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📈 Powell's rare TV moment

Scott Pelley interviews Fed chair Jerome Powell. Photo: CBS News In a rare TV interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Fed chair Jerome Powell asked Americans to be patient as the effects of high interest rates ripple through the economy. He said he expects multiple interest rate cuts this year. Powell acknowledged that side effects of the Fed's inflation-fighting have caused difficulties for prospective homebuyers, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports. It's important "particularly for younger couples starting out, who may not have great financial means, that we succeed in this effort," Powell told Scott Pelley. "We will do so. But what that means is that interest-sensitive spending like mortgages and buying, you know, durable goods and things like that, that's going to be expensive for a while." Transcript, video ..

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Why the Federal Reserve isn't ready to cut rates From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the burden on borrowers. But this week, several central bank officials underscored that they weren’t ready to pull the trigger just yet. Read more.

Key points: Most of the Fed’s policymakers have said they’re optimistic that inflation pressures will continue to cool. But they also caution that there’s a risk that price increases could spike again and warn that if they cut rates now and inflation re-accelerates, then the Fed could be forced into raising rates.   But their caution also carries risks. Right now, the economy appears on track for a “soft landing,” where inflation would be defeated without causing a recession. But the longer that borrowing rates stay high, the higher the risk that companies and consumers stop borrowing and spending, thereby weakening the economy.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ It’s a mismatch on the economy. Even as inflation wanes, voters still worry about getting by   Mexico overtakes China as the leading source of goods imported by US   Treasury rolls out residential real estate transparency rules to combat money laundering

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📈 Wall Street bulls run wild

Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Axios Visuals The most widely-used measure of the U.S. stock market closed above 5,000 for the first time yesterday, a round psychological figure investors have targeted amid a crush of fourth-quarter earnings. Why it matters: It's the latest milestone in the bull market's steady push into unseen territory, due in part to market hopes for (eventually) lower interest rates, Axios' Matt Phillips writes. ⚡ Catch up quick: This new bull market was born at the moment the bear market — brought on by the Federal Reserve's rate hikes over the last couple years — expired on Oct. 12, 2022. Since then, the S&P 500 is up more than 40%. It's up more than 5% so far in 2024. Read on.

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US inflation slows but remains elevated in sign that price pressures are easing only gradually

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer inflation in the United States cooled last month yet remained elevated in the latest sign that the pandemic-fueled price surge is only gradually and fitfully coming under control.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-biden-federal-reserve-539b662f32a3cea4a514407ae4389174?

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New money pours into poor areas

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

New investments are pouring into parts of the U.S. that were left behind in previous booms, Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: If sustained, the investment surge has the potential to help reshape local economies — a sharp departure from the 2010s, when national economic growth largely skipped these communities. 🚜 "Distressed communities" — areas with low incomes and high unemployment — have seen a disproportionate share of new investments in clean energy, chips and biomanufacturing since 2021. The building boom has been spurred in part by money allocated under Biden-era legislation: the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and CHIPS and Science Act. Zoom in: These areas are mainly concentrated in Southern states but include some areas in the Northeast, West and Midwest, according to Brookings Institution research. Brookings pointed to a $4 billion green-hydrogen plant in Wilbarger County, Texas, as well as a new lithium processing plant that's expected to create 300 new jobs in Chester County, South Carolina. Go deeper.

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🤖 Axios interview: Pritzker's quantum boost

A worker walks through a nanofabrication facility at the University of Chicago. Photo: Erin Hooley/Chicago Tribune via Getty Images Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) is devoting half a billion dollars in his new budget to boost quantum computing, Axios Closer co-author Nathan Bomey writes. Why it matters: The $500 million proposal is part of a sweeping quest to remake the state as a hub for the future of semiconductors, quantum and AI. 🖼️ The big picture: The investment would complement Illinois' bid to secure the headquarters of the National Semiconductor Technology Center, an R&D accelerator being established by the Biden administration under the CHIPS Act. "We already were establishing ourselves as a leading hub for quantum development — now we have the opportunity to take it a big step further," Pritzker tells us. Keep reading.

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Consumers are increasingly pushing back against price increases — and winning Inflation has changed the way many Americans shop. Now, those changes in consumer habits are helping bring down inflation. Read more.

Why this matters: With prices remaining on average about 19% above where they were before the pandemic, consumers are fighting back. In grocery stores, they’re shifting away from name brands to store-brand items, switching to discount stores or simply buying fewer items.   Public frustration with prices has become a central issue in President Joe Biden’s bid for reelection. Biden has echoed the criticism of many left-leaning economists that corporations jacked up prices more than was needed to cover their own higher costs, thereby boosting profits.   But recent trends suggest that companies were well on their way to slowing price hikes before Biden’s most recent attacks on price gouging. Claudia Sahm, founder of SAHM Consulting and a former Fed economist, said, “consumers are more powerful than President Biden.”

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ What recession? Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024   AT&T will give $5 to customers hit by cellphone network outage   Some Americans have become saddled with credit card debt as rent and everyday prices remain high

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🔮 New data: Bullish on America

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

An influential group of economists has "sharply revised upwards" America's 2024 growth expectations, in what could be another year that stuns forecasters, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. As the U.S. economy continues to outperform the world, the National Association for Business Economics, which has surveyed professional forecasters since 1965, is the latest to say we won't see a sluggish year. The NABE survey, out this morning, forecasts 2.2% GDP growth — nearly a full point higher than the 1.3% expected in December. ⚡ Flashback: Last year, many economists were overly pessimistic about an economy that ultimately boomed. A flourishing job market, plus expectations the Fed will lower borrowing costs at some point, underpin Wall Street's more optimistic economic forecasts for this year.

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Biden's silver lining

Immigrants are coming to the rescue of employers struggling with a historically tight labor market, and their arrival helps lower inflation, Axios' Hans Nichols and Stef Kight report.

The big picture: Foreign-born workers now constitute nearly 19% of the labor force, up from 17.3% when Biden took office.

• The recent surge in unauthorized migrants will lead to 1.7 million more workers in 2024, according to a recent Congressional Budget Office analysis.
• Those new arrivals will help the U.S. economy grow by about $7 trillion over the next decade.

Zoom in: More than 3 million migrants are still in the country who were encountered at the southern border during the Biden presidency.

• An additional 1 million arrived via ports of entry through new Biden programs relying on the expansive use of parole — a legal mechanism that allows migrants without visas to enter the U.S.

Between the lines: Don't expect Biden to race to the podium to highlight the link between increased immigration and lower inflation, based on conversations with his aides and advisers.

• Trump clearly wants to run on the issue, arguing that the influx of low-skilled immigrants into the economy has hurt native-born workers.

Reality check: Wage growth has been strongest for the bottom quarter of workers, according to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker.

• Average hourly earnings are increasing, and wage growth is outpacing inflation.

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🚀 First look: Southeast soars

Data: Economic Innovation Group. (The Distressed Communities Index synthesizes seven economic indicators into a single summary stat.) Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals The Southeast and Mountain West have become notably more prosperous in just a few years, Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin writes. An update of the Distressed Community Index — out today from the Economic Innovation Group, and shared first with Axios — shows big parts of the country are becoming more vibrant. The index pulls together several factors — including the share of adults who aren't working, housing vacancy rates, and growth in the number of businesses — to quantify whether a given area is rich with economic opportunity or faltering. 📈 Zoom in: Georgia's overall prosperity rose significantly, driven mainly by Atlanta's exurbs — a pattern also seen in North Carolina's Research Triangle, Nashville, central Florida and Phoenix. That's partly because economic conditions are improving in those areas, and partly because more people are moving to regions that are economically vibrant. Explore the data ...