The Economy

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Jobs report shows a hiring slowdown as companies are acting like ‘they’re in a recession’

The US economy kicked off 2025 by adding 143,000 jobs in January, fewer than expected; but the unemployment rate dipped to 4%, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/07/economy/us-jobs-report-january-final/index.html?

US employers added 143,000 jobs in unspectacular January hiring and jobless rate fell to 4%

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers added just 143,000 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate fell to 4% to start 2025.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-trump-tariffs-b4d858e84afc2ae97f9c011e8243941a?

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US inflation heats up to 3% for first time since June

CNN  — 

It’s not just eggs.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/business/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-january/index.html?

US inflation got worse with rising prices on groceries and gasoline

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation accelerated last month as the cost of groceries, gasoline and rents rose, a disappointment for families and businesses struggling with higher costs and likely underscoring the Federal Reserve’s resolve to delay further interest rate cuts.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-federal-reserve-48e77a855078b37bf3ccd58c9db94c82?

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🥩 Inflation shocker: Beef beats eggs

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. Chart: Axios Visuals The egg crisis is getting so acute that it's almost a better deal to have a burger for breakfast than an omelet, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: For at least the last 40 years, in terms of price per gram of protein content, it's generally been cheaper to feed people an egg than many other protein sources, like beef. 🍳 By the numbers: Axios analyzed 493 months of CPI data, going back to January 1984, to calculate the cost per gram of protein content for a dozen eggs and a pound of ground beef. Eggs have always been the just slightly cheaper of the two — until yesterday, when January CPI data came out and the lines crossed for the first time. Between the lines: The price of eggs has soared over recent months to record highs as the bird flu pandemic ravages flocks and crimps supply.

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Inflation

Despite promises from President Trump to bring prices down, many common goods and services in the US got more expensive last month. Inflation jumped to 3% — its highest rate since June of last year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase was driven by many factors, including the rising costs of energy and food. That's particularly true of eggs, which have seen prices soar and widespread shortages due to avian flu. Egg prices, which are up 53% year-over-year, shot up more than 15% from December to January.

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Americans are finding it harder and harder to pay off their debt

Americans are having a harder time managing rising debt burdens and in some cases haven’t been this overextended since the aftermath of the Great Recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/economy/us-household-debt-credit-q4/index.html?

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Used-car sticker shock

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

If you're looking for a cheap used car, good luck: Buyers are facing high prices and limited options, The Wall Street Journal reports. 🖼️ The big picture: Used car prices were a big driver of post-pandemic inflation. Just last year, used car prices were plunging — making them much more affordable than new. Now, the trend has started reversing again. COVID-era vehicle shortages favored sales over lease deals. That pushed car prices upward. "Now there is a hangover effect: a shrinking pool of leased cars being turned in at the end of their terms, a main source of supply for used-car lots," the Journal reports. 🧮 By the numbers: The number of vehicles with expiring three-year leases returning to dealerships is still declining — expected to hit a decade-low this year, and not likely to rebound until 2027. People are buying cars at the end of a lease instead of returning them because they can get better deals relative to market value. Between the lines: New vehicles are abundant compared to their used counterparts. Dealers had a 63-day supply of new cars available or incoming at the end of January — a jump from 26 days in 2022, the WSJ reports. For comparison, they had only a 48-day supply of used cars — down from 57 days over the same period. Read on (gift link).

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📈 Black Americans' finances

Data: Economic Policy Institute. Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios As the nation marks a turbulent Black History Month, the economic state of Black America has much improved over the last few decades. But it's still nowhere near parity, Axios' Ben Berkowitz and Emily Peck report. 💰 Why it matters: Economic hardships define people, families and communities for generations. Breaking those cycles is the key to broader prosperity. Data: Census Bureau via FRED; Chart: Axios Visuals In a sweeping overview of the most important indicators of the Black community's financial progress and challenges, Axios charted the wealth gap, homeownership rates, and maternal mortality rates by race and ethnicity. We also examined household income, the share of bachelor's degrees granted, and the share of adults with medical debt by race. Some statistics are solely for the Black community, while in others we compare to some or all races and ethnicities — in part to illustrate just how stark some of the gaps are.

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Why might prices feel high if inflation is slowing?

Inflation is down, but three in four Americans are still concerned about coming price increases.

https://usafacts.org/articles/why-might-prices-feel-high-if-inflation-is-slowing/?

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⚠️ Inflation warning signs

Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Axios Visuals Bond markets are betting that inflation will stay elevated in the years ahead, and some evidence from business surveys and forecasters points in the same direction, Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin reports. 💡 Why it matters: This belief suggests the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve face a headwind in securing a return to low inflation — concerns that have escalated just in the last few weeks, as the president has threatened tariffs on a variety of U.S. trading partners. Go deeper. Red flags Shoppers usually flock to Walmart for groceries and clothing, looking for good deals on essentials. But the retail giant said 2025 will be trickier as consumers grow increasingly frustrated with inflation and President Donald Trump’s tariffs. That’s a bad sign for the economy.

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Inflation

Stocks on Wall Street fell Thursday after Walmart warned inflation and tariffs could slow down sales for the year. The sour forecast from the world's largest retailer dragged down the Dow by more than 650 points, or 1.5%, before ending the day 451 points lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.43% and 0.47%, respectively, while Walmart's shares tumbled by more than 6.5%. Walmart's chief financial officer acknowledged "uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions." This comes as a new CNN poll shows that 62% of adults nationwide say President Trump has not gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods.

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Shell-shocked

Egg costs are skyrocketing because of the bird flu outbreak, and bakeries are being hit especially hard because it’s such a critical ingredient. They’re raising prices and worried about losing customers. Egg surcharge A growing number of US restaurants are responding to the nationwide egg shortage by adding a temporary surcharge to their egg-based meals at some locations. Denny's, the popular diner chain, said its price decisions are now being made "market-by-market and restaurant-by-restaurant." Earlier this month, Waffle House, another storied diner chain, introduced a temporary 50-cent surcharge per egg. Major retailers, including Costco and Trader Joe's, have had to take action as well by imposing limits on how many eggs one customer can buy. According to the USDA, the avian flu has killed more than 140 million egg-laying birds in the country since 2022. At least 18.9 million birds have been culled in the past 30 days alone.

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Getting jittery

Americans are worried about the economy. Consumer confidence registered the biggest monthly decline since August 2021 as the Trump administration tries to reconfigure trade relationships and inflation shows signs of getting stuck.

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Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for the US labor market

First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose much more than expected last week, a likely indication of some “noisy” data, but also a potential worrisome hint that cracks may be forming in America’s long-solid labor market.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/27/economy/us-jobless-claims-layoffs?

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Economic tremors

Data: U.S. Labor Department; Chart: Axios Visuals Worries about the outlook for U.S. economic growth are starting to mount, Axios Macro co-authors Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown report. They're tremors at this point, not an earthquake. But economists, banks and consumers are all feeling them. 😬 What they're saying: As the federal government and its contractors keep shedding jobs, "the risks are rising that households may begin to hold back purchases of cars, computers, washers, dryers, vacation travel plans, etc.," wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, in a note out this morning. Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said in a speech this morning that "discussions with contacts in my district, as well as some recent data, suggest that elevated uncertainty might weigh on growth." "As US data soften, clients have started asking us about the prospect of a US recession," Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Marc Giannoni wrote in a note yesterday. "We think the odds are still low, but have clearly risen." 💡 Yes, but: These warning signs are mostly showing up so far only in soft data, like surveys of business and consumer sentiment. The hard data shows little evidence of deterioration in spending, investment or hiring. 👀 What we're watching: Jobless claims spiked last week, according to new data released this morning — another warning sign. Jobless filings in Washington hit their highest level since March 2023, though filings in Maryland and Virginia fell. Go deeper.

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Tariff threats and uncertainty could weigh on consumers, drag down US economy, gov’t report suggests

WASHINGTON (AP) — Ongoing tariff threats from Washington and potentially sweeping government job cuts have darkened consumers’ mood and may be weighing on an otherwise mostly healthy economy.

https://apnews.com/article/economy-consumer-trump-tariffs-inflation-b8eacbe9b948af91a4efc97dd3f85cfa?

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How to Turn an “Economic Blackout” Into an All-Out War on Corporate Power

Friday’s economic boycott is a one-day attack on corporate interests. The degrowth movement calls for a broader societal shift.

https://theintercept.com/2025/02/28/no-buy-nothing-corporation-boycott-capitalism-degrowth/?

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US employers add a solid 151,000 jobs last month though unemployment up to 4.1%

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers added solid 151,000 jobs last month, but the outlook is cloudy as President Donald Trump threatens a trade war, purges the federal workforce and promises to deport millions of immigrants.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-economy-jobs-unemployment-tariffs-immigrants-fed-eed80fafbb4ffb7edcb5b0cb8bb5fa14?

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Vanishing Trump bump

Data: Business Roundtable. Chart: Axios Visuals Top corporate leaders' boost of economic exuberance that followed the November elections has receded, Axios' Neil Irwin writes from a new survey of major company CEOs. Why it matters: The data from the Business Roundtable, obtained exclusively by Axios, is the latest sign that a volatile policy environment is dampening the outlook in corporate America. And these survey results were mostly collected before last week's on-then-off tariffs and ensuing stock market volatility. A front-page story in today's Wall Street Journal: "Hard-Landing Fears Grow on Wall Street." President Trump traveled to The Wharf in D.C. yesterday to meet with Business Roundtable members, the CEOs of America's largest companies. BRT chair Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco, said it was "the largest attendance that we've ever had at a Business Roundtable meeting." Trump said to laughter: "I have a lot of friends in the audience — a couple that I don't like particularly much. For the most part, very good." (8-min. video) 🧮 By the numbers: The group's economic outlook index fell 7 points from its December release. At 84, the level is now about the same as it was in the first half of last year and in line with its historical average, implying steady overall growth ahead. The survey results dipped most for hiring expectations, with that sub-index falling 13 points to 54 — barely in expansion mode. The CEOs expect 2.5% GDP growth this year — in line with results over the last few years. 💡 "The modest dip," said BRT CEO Joshua Bolten, "is tied to several factors, including signs of economic headwinds and an atmosphere of uncertainty in Washington." Bolten added that the Trump administration "can help turn the tide" by moving quickly on extending 2017 tax reforms, scaling back regulations, reforming permitting, and "avoiding the use of overly broad, long-lasting tariffs." Robbins, the BRT chair, said: "The survey results signal that our members are cautious about the next six months, but also see opportunities to improve growth." The bottom line: Before the latest wave of volatility and emergence of recession fears, America's most important corporate decision-makers were becoming more wary of the growth outlook.

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US inflation cooled in February, but Trump’s tariff plans and trade war loom

Inflation slowed more than expected in February and cooled for the first time in five months, but that progress may be short lived as President Donald Trump ramps up his trade war, which threatens to increase prices for Americans.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/12/economy/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-february/index.html?

Surprising inflation cooldown

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals Inflation slowed last month for the first time since September. The relief could be fleeting if widening trade wars reignite higher costs, Axios Macro co-authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin report. 🛒 Zoom in: There was a sliver of good news for consumers in the supermarket. Grocery prices overall were flat last month, especially if you shop anywhere other than the egg aisle. Overall, at-home food prices were flat. Dairy, fruit and vegetable prices were down. 🍳 That was enough to offset another huge jump in egg prices, which were up 10% in February. Over the past year, egg prices are up 59%. Go deeper.

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💰 Americans fear more inflation

Data: University of Michigan. Chart: Axios Visuals Americans are becoming sharply more pessimistic about the economy, Axios' Neil Irwin writes from preliminary figures from the University of Michigan's sentiment survey. Overall consumer sentiment fell by about 11% this month. It's the third straight month of decline — the most pessimistic consumers have been since the fall of 2022, when Biden-era inflation was still running high. 📉 Between the lines: The decline was sharpest among Democrats, whose expectations declined 24%. But sentiment among Republicans fell 10%. The turn toward pessimism was strikingly broad-based, seen "across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations and geographic regions," survey director Joanne Hsu said.

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Alarm bells everywhere

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

First, the good news: There's no solid evidence right now that the economy is in recession, or even particularly close to it. The bad news: Red flags are popping up every which way, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. 🖼️ The big picture: Warnings are piling up, including from surveys of consumers and businesses, corporate earnings and financial markets. It all suggests the economic ground may — emphasis may — be shifting beneath our feet. The evidence so far is all in the realm of anecdotes, or "soft data," not the kind of definitive, "hard data" evidence of a downturn that would make economists believe a recession is beginning. 🔭 Zoom out: A confluence of forces emanating from Washington is driving the vibe shift. The threat of new tariffs far larger than those enacted in the previous Trump term is part of it, as is the erratic implementation. Cuts to the federal workforce and government contracting may be leading some wary consumers to slow spending (as is already evident in credit card data for the D.C. area). It all adds a layer of uncertainty for companies trying to decide whether to engage in new capital spending or hiring. 🔎 Zoom in: Yesterday, the University of Michigan's preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for March plunged for the third straight month, showing sharply lower expectations for the future among Democrats and Republicans alike. Thursday, the S&P 500 fell into official correction territory — a 10% drop from its peak. (It rebounded sharply yesterday.) Leaders of businesses large and small are showing less confidence in the outlook. 👀 Warnings have percolated from airlines and retailers, including Dollar General and Walmart, about underwhelming consumer demand. Announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force — and highest for the month of February since 2009, per outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. The bottom line: None of this means that a recession is underway, or inevitable. The U.S. economy is like a tanker ship that normally moves forward, and it takes a lot to stop that progress. But what's striking is how pervasive these warning signs have been lately.

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Retail sales came in weaker than expected, another bad sign for the US economy

Spending at US retailers last month was much weaker than expected, in a troubling sign that the American shopper could be starting to tap out.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/17/economy/us-retail-sales-february/index.html?

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🍿 Snacking recession

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Americans are snacking less — and that's a problem for the packaged food industry, Axios Closer author Nathan Bomey writes. Why it matters: After years of inflation, consumers are recoiling, fed up with food price increases and suddenly immersed in economic uncertainty. General Mills has become the latest food giant to sound the alarm about what CEO Jeff Harmening called a "slowdown in snacking." The company's net sales fell 5% in its latest quarter, with U.S. snacks sales down "mid-single digits." 🍩 Zoom in: Other signs of a snacking slowdown: J.M. Smucker's sales of sweet baked snacks fell 7% in the company's most recent quarter. Campbell's Company CEO Mick Beekhuizen noted "softness in some of our snacking categories" earlier this month. Sales fell 4.3% for U.S. convenience stores in the year ended Feb. 23, according to Circana, a market-research firm cited by The Wall Street Journal. The intrigue: The rise of weight-loss drugs is causing people to snack less — but only a smidge, most execs say. General Mills' CEO noted on an earnings call that the company even experienced a decline in sales of dog snacks — "and to my knowledge, there is not GLP-1s for dog treats."

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CHART OF THE DAY

 

If the federal minimum wage kept pace with productivity, it would be more than $23 an hour today. (Source: Center for Economic Policy and Research)

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📈 Charted: America's rising job anxiety

Data: University of Michigan survey of consumers via Bank of America Institute. Chart: Axios Visuals The share of consumers who say they expect unemployment to rise over the next year surged to 66% in March — by far the highest level going back a decade, Axios' Emily Peck writes from University of Michigan data analyzed by Bank of America. Why it matters: The unemployment rate is pretty low at the moment. But under the hood, Americans sure are nervous about the job market. Add rising job anxiety to the growing list of soft indicators that may be signaling trouble ahead.