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🇺🇸 U.S. economy: Envy of the world
 
Economist cover
 

Cover: The Economist

 

America "continues to rack up a stellar economic performance even as its politics gets more poisonous," The Economist writes in this week's cover editorial.

  • Why it matters: "America's dynamic private sector draws in immigrants, ideas and investment, begetting more dynamism."

💡 How it works: "America is a big country blessed with vast energy resources," The Economist notes. "The shale-oil revolution has driven perhaps a tenth of its economic growth since the early 2000s."

  • "The enormous size of its consumer and capital markets means that a good idea dreamt up in Michigan can make it big across America's 49 other states."
  • "America has long married light-touch regulation with speedy and generous spending when a crisis hits," including COVID stimulus.
  • "It is home not just to the world's biggest rocket-launch industry, but also its internet giants and best artificial-intelligence startups."

📈 By the numbers: Since the early 1990s, the U.S. "has grown faster than other big rich countries, and it has rebounded more strongly from bumps," the magazine adds in a special report.

  • "China's output per person remains less than a third of America's; India's is smaller still."

The bottom line: Contradicting persistent gloom among voters, the true story of the U.S. economy is "relentless dynamism."

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🤔 Mystery report coming Nov. 1
 
Illustration of an umbrella made up of money with a little raincloud over it
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

A major economic mystery is about to collide with the election's final days: The jobs report out Nov. 1 — 46-ish hours before polls open — will have messy, hard-to-parse data after two hurricanes and a major labor strike, Neil Irwin writes in Axios Macro.

  • Why it matters: A gloomy report would create unwanted headlines for Vice President Harris, but might not fully reflect reality. It's a delicate time for the economy, with mixed signals on whether the job market is chugging along fine — or faltering.

🖼️ The big picture: The triple whammy of Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, and the Boeing strike are likely to distort economic data in the coming weeks, making the usual indicators of the economy's health more difficult to dissect.

  • Payroll employment is likely to be depressed, along with industrial production and some measures of consumer spending, in ways that don't reflect the economy's underlying trajectory.
  • There's also likely to be a bounce-back surge in economic output as rebuilding occurs in the next few quarters. In GDP arithmetic, rebuilding a destroyed building counts as a positive.

Flashback: There is a useful historical analog to the situation. In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina walloped New Orleans, followed soon after by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma. There was also a 28-day Boeing strike.

  • While national job growth was weak in September and October of 2005, it bounced back strongly that November.

🔮 What's next: Boeing and its machinists union reached a deal on a new contract proposal over the weekend. Workers will vote to ratify it tomorrow.

phkrause

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🦃 Season of price cuts
 
Illustration of scissors poised to cut through an upward arrow.
 

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

 

Three major retailers — Walmart, Target and Aldi — are promising to cut prices for the holidays after four years of higher costs, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.

  • Why it matters: Discounts were hard to come by during the inflation crisis. But now retailers are getting more competitive to entice shoppers to spend.

Zoom in: Target is announcing today it will lower prices on more than 2,000 products.

  • Walmart said last week its "inflation-free Thanksgiving meal" costs less than last year.
  • Aldi committed to having Thanksgiving prices that are lower than 2019.

🥊 Reality check: It's not unusual for retailers to promote lower prices around the holidays. The trio have said in recent years ahead of Thanksgiving that prices were lower.

phkrause

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Inflation

High inflation has mostly been defeated around the world, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, providing a surprisingly upbeat assessment on prices after warning only three months ago that progress on reducing inflation had stalled. "It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries," the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook. The agency thinks global inflation will slow to 5.8% this year and fall to 3.5% by the end of next year. The rosy outlook on consumer prices comes less than two weeks before the US election, with inflation a key issue for voters. Meanwhile, at least 23 Nobel Prize-winning economists recently signed a letter that called Kamala Harris' economic agenda "vastly superior" to the plans laid out by Donald Trump.

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Lower-priced new cars are gaining popularity, and not just for cash-poor buyers

DETROIT (AP) — Had she wanted to, Michelle Chumley could have afforded a pricey new SUV loaded with options. But when it came time to replace her Chevrolet Blazer SUV, for which she’d paid about $40,000 three years ago, Chumley chose something smaller. And less costly.

https://apnews.com/article/cars-vehicles-autos-affordable-suvs-compact-price-a9547c1d9a52199a492676f8ef2d5891?

phkrause

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💰 Impossible economic comparison
 
2024-10-28-president-sp500
Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

Vice President Harris and former President Trump each have asked voters to consider their economic records, Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack writes.

  • Why it matters: It's almost impossible to do because the pandemic created a stack of financial dominoes that skewed the data.

Both campaigns have cherry-picked the answers, trying to have their cake and eat it too.

  • Trump pretends as if the final 20% of his term never happened, while blaming Harris for inflation that was sparked by pandemic spending and supply chain disruptions. He was late in recognizing COVID's ferocity.
  • Harris touts four years of economic gains without noting that her starting point was artificially low — and that the last round of stimulus might have been too big. She was late in recognizing inflation's stickiness.

Between the lines: COVID has been mostly memory-holed, even though it's the prism through which both candidates want themselves and the other to be judged.

The bottom line: Voters, including dealmakers, should pay more attention to each candidate's economic promises than to their economic résumés.

phkrause

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No, 'basics' do not cost $11,000 a year more than they did 18 months ago | Fact check

The claim: Basic expenses cost a family $11,000 more a year than they did 18 months ago

“It costs a family of four $11,000 more a year to buy the exact same groceries and basics today as it did 18 months ago,” the post reads.

Our rating: False

Multiple measures put the annualized inflationary costs for basic goods and services around $3,000, not $11,000.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/10/28/biden-inflation-less-than-11000-fact-check/75831100007/?

Rhetoric versus reality: Addressing common misconceptions about the economy

The economy is key to many voters in their pick for president, but that fervor also makes it an attractive subject for distortions, misinformation, and oversimplification.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/29/rhetoric-versus-reality-addressing-common-misconceptions-about-the-economy/?

phkrause

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📈 Economic boom keeps booming
 
A column chart that illustrates net change in private-sector employment from November 2023 to October 2024. Job growth peaked at 233,000 in October 2024, with notable increases in March (211,000) and December (158,000). The lowest growth occurred in August (103,000) and July (111,000).
Data: ADP; Chart: Axios Visuals

Two big pre-election snapshots today showed that the U.S. economy is still on a hot streak, Axios Macro authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin report.

  1. The overall economy expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said.
  2. And private-sector employers added 233,000 jobs in October, according to payroll processor ADP's count — the strongest job creation it has reported in 15 months.

🏦 The bottom line: The economy keeps cruising, defying expectations of a slowdown. The data may give the Harris campaign a few extra bragging points on the economy in the final countdown to Election Day.

US economy grew at a solid 2.8% pace last quarter on strength of consumer spending

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 2.8% annual rate from July through September, with consumers helping drive growth despite the weight of still-high interest rates.

https://apnews.com/article/economy-growth-inflation-gdp-consumers-federal-reserve-6a3fbfb5790b07434d656a95865b7435?

phkrause

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📈 America's stock market optimism
 
A line chart that illustrates the share of Americans expecting stock prices to rise over the next year from December 1987 to October 2024. The share peaked at 51.4% in October 2024—the latest data available. The low was in March 2008, when 18% of Americans said the same.
Data: Conference Board via FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals

The stock market is soaring. The largest share of Americans on record believe the run will continue, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

  • Why it matters: When it comes to the stock market, consumers believe high stock prices beget even higher stock prices.

The Conference Board, a business research group, asks consumers whether they expect stock prices to increase in the coming year.

  • In October, slightly more than half said yes — the highest reading in the survey's history.

phkrause

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Economy

Several economists and officials have told CNN the economy has finally pulled off a soft landing, in which inflation is tamed without a recession — an exceptionally rare achievement. Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That's a slightly weaker pace than the second quarter's 3% rate and above the 2.6% rate economists projected in a FactSet poll. Wednesday's report comes after earlier data showed the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, inflation is a whisper away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target and consumer confidence jumped this month by the fastest clip since March of 2021 — all signs of a robust economy.

phkrause

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Swing state groups warn mass deportation will hurt economy, separate a third of Latino families

Latino organizers in battleground states warned former President Donald Trump’s plan for mass deportation could put an estimated one in three Latino families at risk of separation and “destabilize our economy.”

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/30/swing-state-groups-warn-mass-deportation-will-hurt-economy-separate-a-third-of-latino-families/?

phkrause

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💰 Charted: Big union payday
 
A line chart that illustrates the year-over-year percentage change in private sector wages and salaries from Q1 2002 to Q3 2024, comparing union and non-union workers. Union wage growth peaked at 6.5% in Q2 2024, while non-union wage growth reached a high of 6% in Q2 2022, showing a consistent upward trend for unionized workers.
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals

For union workers, wages are rising like it's 2022, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

  • Why it matters: Union workers are getting the big wage gains their non-unionized counterparts got two years ago, when employers raised pay to lure workers when the labor market was hot.

Union workers — who make up only 6% of the private workforce — didn't benefit from those market forces in real time.

  • Wage gains are now catching up for union workers as their contracts expire.

👓 What to watch: Unionized workers at Boeing are still striking, with workers demanding a more than 40% pay increase.

phkrause

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US employers added just 12,000 jobs last month as hurricanes and strikes sharply reduce payrolls

WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers added just 12,000 jobs in October, a total that economists say was held down by the effects of strikes and hurricanes that left many workers temporarily off payrolls. The report provided a somewhat blurry view of the job market at the end of a presidential race that has pivoted heavily on voters’ feelings about the economy.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-election-economy-inflation-unemployment-presidential-dcf54cd3b40f01ca78bccf86cd8e13d5?

phkrause

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💰 Markets jump
 
A line chart that illustrates Bitcoin prices per minute from 4 a.m. Nov. 5 to 4 a.m. Nov. 6, 2024. Prices range from $69,018.87 to $73,506.12.
Data: CoinGecko. Chart: Axios Visuals

The markets so far like what they see after Donald Trump's election, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

  • Bitcoin touched an all-time high of $75,000 — up more than 9% in 24 hours.

Stock market

Financial markets are set to rise sharply today on the heels of the significant reelection of former President Donald Trump. Dow futures soared 1,200 points, or 2.9%. The broader S&P 500 was 2.3% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 1.8%. The US dollar rose 1.7% against the euro and the British pound to its highest level since July. Bitcoin also rocketed to a new high near $74,000 early today. A so-called red wave could usher in an era of deregulation and other pro-business laws and policies that investors believe could benefit the stock market. However, Trump has advocated for policies, including tax breaks and increased public spending, that could significantly increase America's budget deficit.

phkrause

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Stocks surge to record highs as Trump returns to presidency

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied sharply to close at record highs on Wednesday after Republican Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a stunning comeback four years after being voted out of the White House.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-futures-soar-record-high-after-trump-claims-victory-2024-11-06/?
ps:Stocks have been at a all-time high for a few years now!! Sure they go down and up all the time!!!!

phkrause

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phkrause

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Federal Reserve cuts its key interest rate by a quarter-point amid postelection uncertainty

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Thursday by a quarter-point in response to the steady decline in the once-high inflation that had angered Americans and helped drive Donald Trump’s presidential election victory this week.

https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-election-inflation-trump-economy-prices-e6b837fd85cff5ad71d4e40939b97237?

Economy

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point on Thursday. It's the second rate cut since the central bank began lowering borrowing costs in September, though the latest cut is smaller than the previous one. Still, it represents further relief from the high cost of credit card interest, auto loans and other debt. More rate cuts are expected in 2025, but how many will depend on the potential impacts of Trump's proposed policies, such as tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs and deportations. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell also affirmed his commitment to serve out his term, expected to end in mid-2026, even if Trump attempts to fire him. When asked if he believes the president has the power to remove him or any other Fed official in a leadership position, Powell said that's "not permitted under the law."

phkrause

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Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fed up with high prices and unimpressed with an economy that by just about any measure is a healthy one, Americans demanded change when they voted for president.

https://apnews.com/article/economy-trump-inflation-prices-election-tariffs-immigrants-e791d15158195a8a15a71ee43c77d749?

phkrause

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💵 How markets see Trump

Markets are betting that the second Trump administration will bring robust growth, an unshackled corporate sector, and only modest downside from some of the president-elect's more disruptive plans, Axios' Neil Irwin writes.

  • Why it matters: Policy will be volatile in the years ahead, and risks abound. But the wisdom of the investing crowds — for the moment — holds that it will net a more conducive environment for business and that any uptick in inflation will be temporary.

It is, in effect, a bet that Trump 2.0 will fire up America's competitive juices — and that policies around tariffs and mass deportations will be carried out in ways that don't do excessive damage to business.

  • The S&P 500 is up about 3.5% since Election Day. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies is up by about 6%.

⚠️ Reality check: In the first Trump term, markets were ebullient to start as they priced in lower taxes and deregulation. But a hit from trade barriers showed up later.

phkrause

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Trump Judge Just Blocked A Biden Rule That Helps Millions Of Workers

On Friday a federal judge in Texas struck down a new rule from the Biden administration aimed at extending overtime protections to millions of workers .

https://local.newsbreak.com/texas-state/3676450996387-trump-judge-just-blocked-a-biden-rule-that-helps-millions-of-workers?

Judge blocks Biden administration’s rule to expand overtime pay for millions

NEW YORK (AP) — A federal judge in Texas has blocked a new rule from the Biden administration that would have expanded access to overtime pay to millions more salaried workers across the U.S.

https://apnews.com/article/judge-blocks-overtime-pay-biden-rule-8469c6980f9305c60f1670ed1d8362e2?

phkrause

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Retail sales up solidly in October as Americans showed continued willingness to spend

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans stepped up their spending at retailers last month in the latest sign that healthy consumer spending is driving the economy’s steady growth.

https://apnews.com/article/retailers-spending-consumers-inflation-stores-shoppers-economy-d9373d589c5af93504920c5894753444?

phkrause

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💼 Workers feel stuck
 
Illustration of a businessman holding a briefcase and running in a hamster wheel.
 

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

 

Workers in the U.S. are running in place — feeling stuck in jobs with dimmed prospects for advancement, and seeing fewer opportunities to jump ship for something better, Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck writes.

  • It's a sharp contrast to the heady days of 2022: Employees were quitting their jobs at record rates, open roles proliferated, and the possibility of a higher paycheck always seemed just around the corner.

🔂 The big picture: Employers are sitting tight with hiring, says Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job site Glassdoor. That means "fewer opportunities for workers to climb the career ladder," he says.

  • They're still plugging away at the same role they've had for years, without the opportunity to move up internally or at a new company.

🗄️ By the numbers: 65% of the professionals surveyed by Glassdoor last month said they feel stuck in their current roles.

  • "As workers feel stuck, pent-up resentment boils under the surface," Zhao writes in a report out Tuesday.

phkrause

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🔨 Where undocumented workers work
 
A bar chart that illustrates the share of undocumented workers across various industries in 2022. Construction leads with 13.7%, followed by agriculture at 12.7%. Hospitality accounts for 7.1%, while general services and wholesale trade represent 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively.
Data: American Immigration Council; Chart: Axios Visuals

Undocumented laborers make up a relatively small percentage of the total U.S. workforce, But they have outsized roles in fields like construction, agriculture and hospitality, Axios' April Rubin reports.

  • 🚜 Those industries would need to find new workers — and, in some cases, adopt more aboveboard employment practices — if Trump's plans for mass deportations are successful.
  • Otherwise, they could see labor shortages big enough to harm their own bottom lines and the larger U.S. economy.

Go deeper.

phkrause

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💸 What it takes to make it
 
A bar chart that illustrates minimum expected salaries for financial success across generational brackets, based on a survey of 2,203 U.S. adults. Boomers expect $99,874, Gen X $212,321, Millennials $180,865, and Gen Z $587,797. The average expectation is $270,214, highlighting a significant increase in expectations among younger generations.
Data: Morning Consult/Empower. Chart: Axios Visuals

The average American says a salary of just over $270,000 a year qualifies them as "financially successful," Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck reports from a new study.

  • But there are huge disparities between generations,

🏦 By the numbers: Baby Boomers generally think they can be a success on salaries just under $100,000 a year.

  • But Gen Z workers think they have to earn almost $600,000 a year (!) to really make it.

Even with those lofty targets, 71% of Gen Z respondents said they expected to achieve financial success in their lifetimes — more than any other age group.

phkrause

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