The Economy

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Powell warns of more interest rate hikes as inflation remains high

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Friday warned that inflation was still far too high, and suggested the central bank may need to raise interest rates further in coming months.

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/25/fed-jerome-powell-jackson-hole

ps:"Warns!" Why? As if people are purposely doing something to have interest rates raised!!

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Job openings fall to 28-month low and fewer workers quit as U.S. labor market cools off

The numbers: Job openings in the U.S. fell in July to a 28-month low of 8.8 million, as companies scale back hiring in response to worries about an economic slowdown.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-openings-fall-to-28-low-of-8-8-million-and-fewer-workers-quit-6c7c94c1

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📈 1 big thing: Great business boom of '23

Data: Yelp. (New listings added by businesses or Yelp users.) Chart: Axios Visuals New business listings on Yelp have exceeded 2019 levels every month this year, thanks to a surge in travel, events and get-togethers. Why it matters: Consumer demand remains a dominant driver of the economy, Axios senior business reporter Hope King writes. 🧮 By the numbers: 484,000 new businesses popped up on Yelp in the first seven months of this year — compared to 389,000 over the same period last year. That's a roughly 25% increase year-over-year, and a 46% increase from 2019. Openings increased across every category, driven by hotels and travel (+39%), home services (+37%), auto (+27%), event services (+27%), and local services businesses (+23%). Within travel, top growth came from RV rentals (+84%), travel agents (+76%), vacation rentals (+54%), airport shuttles (+30%) and walking tours (+15%). 🗺️ Geographically, California, Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia saw the most openings. Florida overtook Texas, moving to second after placing third last year. 🔬 Zoom in: Each month of 2023 has seen more business openings from underrepresented communities, compared to last year. LGBTQ-owned businesses (+33%), Black-owned (+28%) and Latin-owned (+28%) business openings grew above the national average (+25%). Women-owned businesses are up 19%. Asian-owned businesses gained 13%.

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🛥️ Sign of our times: Boat sales boom

Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals Spending on pleasure boats continues to hover near remarkable highs, Matt Phillips writes for Axios Markets. Why it matters: You don't buy a boat unless you're feeling fairly confident the economic wind is at your back. So this is a good sign for the economy. The ongoing boat-buying binge — which began during COVID shutdowns — is another strike against the once dominant "looming recession" narrative. It's a bit of a reality check on polling showing the predominant American mood as diffident and dissatisfied, verging on despondent. What's happening: It's not just yacht-owning one-percenters driving America's booming boat economy, Axios' Joann Muller wrote back in June. It's vast numbers of regular folks fishing, water-skiing, sailing and jet-skiing, according to the National Marine Manufacturers Association. Go deeper.

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💡 We're saving and earning less. But we won't stop spending

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Americans' income growth slowed to a crawl in July — but their spending rate decidedly did not, Neil Irwin writes for Axios Macro. Why it matters: Americans are saving less to continue spending robustly, even as income growth slows — telling us something important about economic currents that will shape the next year. If it continues, that dynamic will prevent a recession from taking hold, though at the cost of leaving household balance sheets more fragile. What's happening: Personal incomes rose 0.2% in July. Disposable personal income — what people made after taxes — was flat for the month, and down 0.2% after accounting for inflation. Yet spending still roared ahead, rising a brisk 0.8% (0.6% in inflation-adjusted terms). 🧮 By the numbers: The personal saving rate fell to 3.5% in July, down from 4.3% in June and 4.7% in May. Immediately before the pandemic, savings rates were much higher, averaging 8.8% in 2019. The intrigue: A big question for the economy is whether robust spending growth will continue propping up the overall economy, even as the labor market softens and income growth flatlines. Inflation numbers point to continued moderation in price pressures, in line with what Fed officials want to see as they weigh whether to raise rates further. July core Personal Consumption Expenditure prices rose 0.2% for the second straight month, continuing a deceleration compared to 2022 and earlier this year. Over the past three months, core PCE inflation has risen at a 2.9% annual rate, down from a 3.3% rate in the three months ended in June. The bottom line: Income growth is slowing, and inflation is moderating. The question is whether — or when — a consumer-spending pullback ensues.

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Labor celebrates

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

U.S. labor has a big list of wins to celebrate this Labor Day: Unionized workers in the U.S. nabbed big raises, better benefits and even new holidays this year, Axios' Emily Peck reports. Why it matters: These victories reflect changing attitudes toward organized labor ... a pandemic-emboldened workforce ... and a giant helping of leverage for workers, thanks to a tight labor market. 📦 What's happening: UPS workers scored a series of wins so notable in their latest contract negotiations — including pay increases have some drivers earning up to $170,000 in pay and benefits at the end of the five-year contract — that it's turned brown-shorts-clad delivery driver into a hot job. UPS drivers also landed themselves a new day off — getting MLK Day as a paid holiday for the first time — and air conditioning in trucks, a long-simmering issue. 🛫 Unionized airline pilots secured pay raises as high as 46% this year, as a pilot shortage increased demand for workers and the amount of leverage they have. 🚂 Even rail workers, who ended 2022 without the paid sick leave they'd demanded in contract negotiations, wound up making progress on that front. By June, a majority had gained access to the benefit. 🚢 After more than a year of heated negotiations, unionized port workers on the West Coast nabbed a contract — just ratified last week — without resorting to a strike. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su described the deal, which she helped negotiate, as "historic." 💭 The tight labor market has "resulted in workers being able to make greater demands at the bargaining table," Su told Axios. "We saw that in the UPS negotiations, where workers are not just increasing their wages, but addressing very serious issues of working conditions and long-term stability," she added. 🖼️ Big picture: The labor market has been good to plenty of non-unionized workers, too. Wages at the lower end of the income ladder have soared post-pandemic. 🥊 Reality check: Union membership in the U.S. is historically low. High-profile organizing efforts are underway at Starbucks and Amazon. But relatively weak U.S. labor laws mean those workers are struggling mightily to even get to the negotiating table. 🎥 What we're watching: The summer strike by 160,000 Hollywood writers and actors is stretching into autumn — with little reported progress.

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Deficit to double

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The federal deficit is expected to nearly double this year, from about $1 trillion last year to $2 trillion for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the WashPost's Jeff Stein reports from a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projection. Why it matters: There's no precedent for deficits this large, as a share of the economy — outside war, deep recession or pandemic, Axios Macro author Neil Irwin tells me. Such huge spending imbalances contribute to high interest rates for consumers — including mortgages — in the short run. In the long run, it means interest costs will likely squeeze all other federal priorities. What's happening: Bigger interest payments + lower tax receipts, despite strong economic growth. "A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time," Stein writes. Reality check: The annual deficit was even higher — $2.8 trillion — in 2021, amid record COVID spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Keep reading.

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🕶️ Economy keeps defying expectations

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals Health care, leisure and hospitality and construction were among the sectors that saw the biggest job gains in August, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports. Go deeper.

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💻 Workplace gender gap hits new low

Data: FRED, BLS. Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios Women are closing in on men in the workplace, Axios Markets' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: For decades, a far higher share of men worked than women. Now that gender gap is the narrowest it's ever been, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What's happening: Women's return to work from the pandemic has been faster than men's. A big part of this is the rise of remote and flexible work, which has enabled a record number of women with young children to enter or remain in the workforce. The gender pay gap also is the narrowest on record. What to watch: The child-care cliff. COVID-era funding for child care runs out this month. Many predict this could put some daycares out of business or force them to raise fees. That could push some parents out of the workforce.

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💰 U.S. wealth soars

Data: Federal Reserve via FRED. Chart: Axios Visuals Property values and a strong stock market pushed U.S. household wealth to a record $154.28 trillion in the second quarter, Axios' Hope King writes from Fed data out Friday. Why it matters: The data solidifies the growing narrative that the U.S. economy is faring far better than its major counterparts, particularly Europe and China. 🧮 By the numbers: U.S. household net worth rose to $154.3 trillion, up from $148.79 trillion at the end of the first quarter. The stock rally contributed $2.6 trillion in gains, or nearly half of the increase. Rising property values contributed $2.5 trillion. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, which set a previous record high of $152.49 trillion, household net worth is up 1.2%, or $1.8 trillion. The calculation is based on the balance sheets of households, businesses, and federal, state and local governments. 🖼️ The big picture: Analyst expectations for a recession continue to shrink. Goldman Sachs last week lowered the probability for a downturn within the next year to 15%, from 20%.

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📊 First look: More CEOs expect to cut jobs

Data: Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals Few of America's top corporate leaders expect to add jobs in the coming months, and many expect to cut positions: In a new survey from Business Roundtable, made up of CEOs from top U.S. companies, only 27% expected to increase their U.S. workforces in the next six months — down from 33% in June, and 47% a year ago, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin reports exclusively. Why it matters: That presages a slowdown in what has been a blistering-hot labor market. 🔎 Between the lines: The executives' forecasts for sales and capital spending were flat. That suggests business conditions are holding up, even as executives reevaluate what were once more ambitious hiring and staffing plans.

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🔮 Small business owners feeling better

Data: Q3 MetLife and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index. Chart: Axios Visuals An index that measures small business owners' confidence jumped six points in the third quarter, nearly reaching its pre-pandemic high, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets. Why it matters: Score one for team soft-landing. The index, published this morning by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is another sign the economy is doing OK. 🧮 By the numbers: Researchers surveyed 751 U.S. business owners who run companies with fewer than 500 people. 66% of small business owners say their business is in good health — a nearly 10-point increase. 71% expect revenue to increase next year — the most since the survey launched in 2017.

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Fed leaves interest rates steady, signals one more hike ahead

The Federal Reserve elected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday, and issued new projections indicating most officials anticipate one more interest rate hike this year.

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/fed-rates-unchanged?

Fed keeps rates unchanged and signals optimism about a potential ‘soft landing’

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday for the second time in its past three meetings, a sign that it’s moderating its fight against inflation as price pressures have eased.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-rates-powell-economy-prices-ee43601f41a86245c0705fe99df89f55?

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New moms working at staggeringly high rates

Data: Census Bureau (Includes women ages 16 to 50). Chart: Axios Visuals The percentage of women who recently gave birth and remained part of the workforce reached a decade-plus-high water mark last year, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report. Why it matters: Motherhood often knocks women out of the labor force, at least temporarily — slowing their career and earnings growth and contributing to the gender pay gap. 🧮 By the numbers: 66.6% of U.S. women who gave birth in the previous 12 months were in the labor force last year, per the Census Bureau's latest American Community Survey. That's compared with 66.5% in 2021, and 61.6% in 2010. What's happening: Remote and flexible work is making it easier for new moms to juggle both parenting and their careers. That's true for new dads, too. But women tend to bear the brunt of work/life priority changes brought on by parenthood.

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💼 Where job market is growing, shrinking

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Graphic: Axios Visuals In a country as big as the U.S., there isn't just one labor market. There are many. And some are flashing more serious warning signs than others about the economy, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Why it matters: State-level jobs data released this week shows that while the U.S. job market remains on solid footing, a couple of states are displaying dynamics more commonly seen in recessions. The good news is that weaker job markets are relatively limited. In 18 states, the jobless rate has fallen by half a percentage point or more in the past year, led by Maryland (down 1.7 percentage points) and Massachusetts (down 1.3 points). The bad news is that some of the steepest rises were in highly populated California (up 0.8 percentage points) and New Jersey (up 1.2 points). ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak says jobless increases in New Jersey, D.C. and California match those typically seen in recessions.

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🛢️ Oil price is warning for D.C.

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals U.S. crude oil yesterday posted its biggest daily jump since May, climbing to its highest level this year, Axios' Matt Phillips writes. Prices are up more than 10% this month. Why it matters: The rise in oil prices, along with a recent upswing in housing prices, suggests a possible resurgence in inflation. 🖼️ The big picture: One reason for rising prices is that the U.S. economy has been stronger than expected. So more oil is being consumed. Global supplies are tight. Saudi Arabia and Russia have struck deals to reduce production and prop up prices. The bottom line: The rise in oil prices — and by extension gas prices, along with the recent stock-market downturn, is a perfect recipe for sour consumer sentiment — and peril for incumbent politicians.

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A surge of hiring in September defies predictions, pointing to US job market’s enduring resilience

WASHINGTON (AP) — An unforeseen burst of hiring last month has lifted hopes that the economy will prove durable once again, even as an array of threats lie ahead.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-inflation-rates-economy-federal-reserve-unemployment-8950494bcfcc717f7e6c18bc19ecaf6e?

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Payrolls soared by 336,000 in September, defying expectations for a hiring slowdown

Job growth was stronger than expected in September, a sign that the U.S. economy is hanging tough despite higher interest rates, labor strife and dysfunction in Washington.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/06/jobs-report-september-2023.html

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🏠 Era of 8% mortgages

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals After gas, the most telling price in the American economy is the interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. It looks like it's going to hit 8% sooner rather than later, Axios chief financial correspondent Felix Salmon writes. Why it matters: A world of 8% mortgages is one Americans haven't seen in 23+ years. The last time mortgage rates were that high — 2000 — Bill Clinton was president, Brad Pitt married Jennifer Aniston, and Apple Computer was worth $15 billion (0.5% of its current value). 🧮 By the numbers: A $500,000 30-year mortgage would have cost $1,972 per month at the 2.8% mortgage rate that was available in early 2021. Today, with a 7.9% rate, that payment would be $3,488 — a 77% increase. Go deeper: Why mortgage rates are so high, by Felix.

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⚠️ Pocketbook pain could worsen

Data: The Conference Board. Chart: Axios Visuals Split-screen crises on Capitol Hill and Wall Street are threatening more financial pain for Americans — plus the Middle East conflagration is adding to economic uncertainty, Axios managing editor Javier E. David writes. Why it matters: Washington's fighting — combined with inflation — is making it costlier for the government to borrow. That will trickle down to cash-strapped consumers in ways both obvious and invisible. How it works: Trouble in Washington will likely push another credit rating firm to downgrade the world's largest economy. Fitch lowered America's rating after the debt ceiling standoff earlier this year. A downgrade could make borrowing even more expensive Keep reading.

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🔮 Biden beats "100% recession" forecast

On Oct. 17, 2022, Bloomberg forecast a 100% probability that the U.S. would enter a recession within the next year — describing it as a "blow" to Biden's economic messaging ahead of the midterms.

Why it matters: The Biden campaign — which has aggressively promoted the president's record on the economy, even as many Americans remain pessimistic — took a victory lap today after that projection failed to bear out.

Driving the news: Retail sales crushed expectations in September, reflecting resilient consumer demand that could explain why the broader economy has kept growing despite sky-high interest rates.

Yes, but: inflation has remained a stubborn thorn in Biden's side, and a whopping 63% of Americans still disapprove of his handling of the economy, according to a CNBC poll out today.

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A surge in wealth has boosted most US households since 2020 The net worth of the typical U.S. household grew at the fastest pace in more than three decades from 2020 through 2022, while relatively low interest rates at that time made it easier for households to pay their debts, according to a government report Wednesday. Read more.

Why this matters: The jump in wealth - 37% for median households - occurred even as the brief but brutal pandemic cost 20 million Americans their jobs in 2020. While about $5 trillion worth of government relief aid helped spur a rapid recovery that regained lost jobs, the additional spending is believed to have helped fuel the worst bout of inflation in four decades.   The broad-based wealth increase helps explain the surprising durability of the U.S. economy this year and the consumer spending that powers about two-thirds of it. For at least a year, economists have been warning of a forthcoming recession, yet the economy has kept chugging along.

Related coverage ➤ Retail sales rise solid 0.7% in September, reflecting US shoppers’ resilience despite higher prices

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Record share of households own stocks

Data: Federal Reserve. Chart: Axios Visuals The share of U.S. households that own stock either in mutual funds, retirement accounts or as individual shares hit a new high in 2022. Why it matters: The large share of households with a stake in the stock market is a distinctive feature of American capitalism, setting it apart from other big advanced nations, Matt Phillips reports for Axios Markets 🧮 By the numbers: The Fed's just-published triennial Survey of Consumer Finances shows that in 2022, about 58% of American households owned stock, either directly or indirectly through mutual funds and other investment accounts. That's the highest on record — trouncing the previous high water mark of 53% seen during the dot-com boom and right before the Global Financial Crisis. What's happening: The rise in those who own stock directly — that is, by buying individual shares rather than through mutual funds — was a big driver. Direct ownership of stocks increased "markedly" between 2019 and 2022, jumping from 15% to 21% — making it the largest change on record, the Fed said in its report. 💭 Matt's thought bubble: This reflects COVID-related changes in behavior among Americans, many of whom first turned to the stock market as a way of scratching a sports gambling itch during the early phase of the pandemic. Smartphone-based apps aimed at younger traders, notably Robinhood, helped build the habit. Surging retail stock buying famously became a cultural phenomenon in January 2021, when coordinated retail investors helped drive the share price of GameStop into the stratosphere.

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The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for the 1st time since 2007. Here’s why that matters

NEW YORK (AP) — The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. That matters for everyone, not just Wall Street.

https://apnews.com/article/treasury-yield-rates-wall-street-mortgage-aa78d3c3c50728ed62291a58695f3cd0?

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U.S. economy sizzles in Q3, defying slowdown fears

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, defying expectations of a slowdown.

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/26/us-third-quarter-gdp-report-economy-growth?