Candidates for President in 2024

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🐘 Haley plays it safe

Nikki Haley's confident debate performances have boosted her run for president, but she and her team have been cautious on the campaign trail in the days before the make-or-break New Hampshire primary.

• Why it matters: The former South Carolina governor is betting that a risk-averse, disciplined approach — along with millions of dollars in ads — will save her candidacy in New Hampshire after a disappointing third-place finish in Iowa's caucuses, Axios' Alex Thompson and Sophia Cai report.

What's happening: Trump has responded to Haley's polling rise with a barrage of attacks. Haley has answered selectively — focusing mostly on his age, and saying that "rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him."

• At her campaign's town halls in New Hampshire, she hasn't been taking public questions from voters — similar to her approach just before Iowa's caucuses. Haley's campaign noted she stays long after her speeches "taking photos with each voter and answering all their questions."

Haley, trying to frame the primary as a tw0-person contest, declined to participate in two scheduled New Hampshire debates unless Trump joined her and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

• She knocked both Trump and President Biden last night during a CNN town hall in Henniker, N.H.: "Do we really want to have two 80-year-olds running for president when we have a country in disarray and a world on fire?"

Between the lines: Trump has had a much lighter campaign schedule than Haley in New Hampshire, as he did in Iowa.

• He left the state this week to attend his defamation trial in New York and his mother-in-law's funeral.

Haley has been careful in responding to Trump as she draws contrasts on style and some policies — particularly chiding him over the national debt — while trying not to engage with his increasingly vicious and race-baiting attacks.

• Asked about Trump's promotion of a baseless theory that Haley was ineligible to be president despite being born in the U.S., Haley told CNN Thursday that she would "continue to focus on the things that people want to talk about, and not get into the name-calling."
• Haley spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas told Axios: "Nikki Haley has spoken to more New Hampshire voters this week than Donald Trump has all year ... That's one of the reasons she has gone from 3% in the polls to within striking distance of Trump."

🐊 DeSantis — who spent most of his resources in Iowa, only to finish 30 points behind Trump — has been trying to revive his candidacy with an eye toward the Feb. 24 GOP primary in South Carolina.

• DeSantis has been jabbing Haley for declining to debate him — and has made a point of publicly taking voters' questions at his New Hampshire town halls.

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Trump edges out Nikki Haley for Tim Scott’s endorsement

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is planning to endorse former President Trump at a rally in New Hampshire on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/19/trump-tim-scott-endorsement-haley-new-hampshire?

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Trump mocks Nikki Haley’s first name. It’s his latest example of attacking rivals based on race

ATLANTA (AP) — Donald Trump used his social media platform Friday to mock Nikki Haley ‘s birth name, the latest example of the former president keying on race and ethnicity to attack people of color, especially his political rivals.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-nikki-haley-58b7ffa7e49f626bae481060cf9975d2?

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Breaking: DeSantis drops out

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced this afternoon that he's suspending his presidential campaign and endorsing former President Trump, less than a week after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses.

Why it matters: It's a flameout of epic proportions for a young, conservative culture warrior who — in the aftermath of his landslide re-election in 2022 — was widely viewed as Republicans' best hope for moving on from Trump.

• The GOP primary is now a two-person race between Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose rise in the polls and increasing appeal to deep-pocketed donors came at DeSantis' expense.
• "I want to say to Ron, he ran a great race. He's been a good governor, and we wish him well. Having said that, it's now one fella and one lady left," Haley told supporters in New Hampshire, where her campaign faces a potential make-or-break moment in Tuesday's primary.

How we got here: Polls in December 2022 reflected DeSantis' immense promise as Trump's heir apparent, but months of unanswered attacks from the former president doomed his campaign.

• DeSantis officially launched his presidential bid in May 2023 on a glitchy Twitter Spaces feed with Elon Musk, providing an apt metaphor for what would become a campaign dominated by online feuds and internal chaos.
• The scale of DeSantis' ambition was enormous: The Never Back Down super PAC promised to spend $200 million on an unprecedented field operation, but devolved into a slow-motion train wreck as his polling endured a months-long free fall.
• DeSantis visited every county in Iowa and staked his entire candidacy on appealing to the state's conservative and evangelical base, only to finish 30 points behind Trump and just 2 points ahead of Haley.

Between the lines: Endless reports of infighting, staffing shakeups and strategic "resets" made DeSantis an easy target for Trump, who mocked his former ally relentlessly and in viciously personal terms.

• DeSantis began criticizing Trump more directly as desperation set in, but the inherent contradictions of the campaign — attacking the former president while trying not to alienate a GOP base that loves him — proved too difficult.
• "Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear. I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee, and I will honor that pledge," DeSantis said in a concession speech posted online.

What to watch: Given the intense animosity that developed between DeSantis and Trump supporters — including calls to blacklist DeSantis allies from Republican politics — how Trump handles his rival's exit will be a key test of the GOP's ability to unify.

• Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a prominent Trump ally who also worked on DeSantis' transition team, said he would welcome the Florida governor back into the fold: "I hate when Mom and Dad fight."
• Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the DeSantis-supporting chair of the House Freedom Caucus, immediately endorsed Trump upon learning of his candidate's exit — potentially in an attempt to ward off recriminations.

DeSantis, for his part, seemed to recognize in comments last week that loyalty to Trump remains the organizing principle of the Republican Party:

• "You can be the most worthless Republican in America. If you kiss the ring, Trump will say you are wonderful."

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👀 Haley hits Trump's mental fitness

Nikki Haley is spending the final days before the New Hampshire primary turning up the heat on Trump — including by questioning the former president's mental fitness after he confused Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) during a speech on Friday.

Why it matters: She is making her most forceful case yet against Trump at what could be a do-or-die moment for her campaign.

• A pair of New Hampshire polls out today — one from Suffolk/Boston Globe and one from CNN/University of New Hampshire — both have Trump with double-digit leads over Haley ahead of Tuesday's primary.
• DeSantis, who spent the weekend in South Carolina fending off speculation that he was on the verge of ending his campaign, was polling at just 6% in both surveys.

What they're saying: Asked about Trump's bizarre comments in which he blamed her for security failures at the Capitol on Jan. 6, Haley told CBS News' "Face the Nation" that her former boss is "just not at the same level he was at 2016."

• "He claimed Joe Biden was going to get us into World War II. I'm assuming he meant World War III," Haley said.
• "He said he ran against Obama. He never ran against Obama."
• "He said I kept security from the Capitol on Jan. 6. I was nowhere near the Capitol on Jan. 6."

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📊 Charted: Biden's appointment scorecard

Data: Partnership for Public Services; Note: Includes civilian positions but excludes federal judges, U.S. attorneys and U.S. marshals; Chart: Axios Visuals Three years into his term, Biden is outpacing Trump in stocking the federal government with political appointees. But he's lagging behind his other two predecessors, Hans writes from data compiled by the Partnership for Public Services. Why it matters: Presidents have about 1,200 political positions to give to party loyalists and government experts that require Senate confirmation. Those officials — from ambassadors to general counsels — work closely with the federal bureaucracy to implement the president's agenda.

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🥊 Trump-Haley brawl gets personal

MANCHESTER, N.H. — New Hampshire's GOP presidential primary is taking a nasty turn in the final hours before Tuesday's voting, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.

• Former President Trump is accusing Nikki Haley of not being "smart enough" to be president, and once again is tapping into race-based attacks.
• Haley, who turned 52 yesterday, says Trump, 77, may be in mental "decline," and incapable of being president into his 80s.

Why it matters: Trump is trying to finish off Haley and virtually seal the Republican nomination. Haley is looking for a springboard to stop him in her home state of South Carolina next month.

After Trump repeatedly mixed up Haley and former Speaker Pelosi at a rally late Friday as he defended his actions during the Capitol riot, Haley and her team spent much of yesterday suggesting the former president isn't mentally able to be president.

• "When you're dealing with the pressures of a presidency, we can't have someone else that we question whether they're mentally fit to do this," Haley said.

Pointing to a Trump remark from a few months ago, Haley noted that Trump "said he was running against Obama — he never ran against Obama!"

Trump was telling voters that Haley — his former UN ambassador — is "not tough enough, not smart enough, or capable enough" to be president and said that he'd "probably" not pick her to be vice president.

• He's also returned to race-based attacks in recent days, falsely suggesting Haley is ineligible to be president because of her Indian immigrant parents.

Trump repeatedly has called Haley by versions of her given first name, Nimarata, even though Haley has gone by her middle name, Nikki, for most of her life.

• At a rally in Manchester last night, Trump had a huge backdrop above the stage with anti-Haley graphics, including: "NIKKI HALEY IS LOVED BY DEMOCRATS, WALL STREET & GLOBALISTS."

As a flex, Trump brought several lawmakers to New Hampshire this weekend from Haley's home state of South Carolina ... including Gov. Henry McMaster.

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🐘 Auditioning for V.P.

KINGSTON, N.H. — The run-up to Tuesday's New Hampshire primary has included repeated auditions to be former President Trump's V.P. pick:

• Contenders have been popping up around the state to stump for the former president, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

Why it matters: With Trump mostly sticking to big rallies, his surrogates are getting big roles at smaller events — while promoting themselves and showing what Trump values most: loyalty.

This weekend, three lawmakers on Trump's V.P. short list — Sens. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) — didn't just tout Trump. They emphasized their own relationships with him.

• Keep reading.

🐊 P.S. Ron DeSantis canceled interviews today with NBC's "Meet the Press" and CNN's "State of the Union," after they'd been announced. He campaigned in South Carolina yesterday.

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📸 Only in N.H.

Photo: Robert F. Bukaty/AP New Hampshire voters are famous for the demands they make on presidential supplicants, but this is a new one: Nikki Haley ties a supporter's shoelaces yesterday, following her speech to voters at Keene Country Club in Keene, N.H. Photo: Brian Snyder/Reuters Above: Haley drinks a Guinness during a campaign stop yesterday at The Peddler's Daughter Irish Restaurant & Pub in Nashua, N.H.

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The race for a Republican nominee narrows to Trump and Haley after DeSantis suspends campaign Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his Republican presidential campaign on Sunday, ending his 2024 White House bid while endorsing his rival, Donald Trump. But as some Trump critics cheered, DeSantis nodded toward Trump’s primary dominance — and attacked Haley — in the exit video he posted on social media. Read more.

Why this matters: This is the scenario Trump’s foes in the Republican Party have long sought, raising the stakes for this week’s contest as the party’s last chance to stop the former president who has so far dominated the race.   DeSantis’ decision marks the end of an extraordinary decline for a high-profile governor once thought to be a legitimate threat to Trump’s supremacy in the Republican Party.

Related coverage ➤  Nikki Haley questions Trump’s mental fitness after he appears to confuse her for Nancy Pelosi WATCH: What to know about DeSantis suspending his campaign for president AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the New Hampshire primaries

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DeSantis' parting shot at Haley

Idled! A bus for DeSantis' super PAC is parked outside a hotel in Manchester, N.H., yesterday. Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images MANCHESTER, N.H. — With his exit from the GOP race for president on Sunday, Ron DeSantis made clear that he doesn't just want Donald Trump to win — he wants Nikki Haley to lose, Axios' Alex Thompson reports. Why it matters: DeSantis dropping out just before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary — and immediately endorsing Trump — likely hurts Haley hours before a contest where the former UN ambassador needs to win or finish a strong second. By pulling the plug on his campaign, the Florida governor struck the latest blow in his increasingly bitter fight with Haley. For months, DeSantis privately told donors Haley had no chance in a 1-on-1 race against Trump. His campaign seethed as many of them gave to Haley anyway. Now, DeSantis believes he'll be proven right. In a video announcing his exit, DeSantis said he was endorsing Trump "because we can't go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear — a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents." Haley has been polling within striking distance of Trump in New Hampshire. But polls show that most DeSantis voters prefer Trump to her. 🔎 The intrigue: Last fall, DeSantis and his team tried to stop large donors from backing Haley, arguing she'd spend most of the money attacking DeSantis — whose support would go to Trump, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Part of that prediction has come true: Haley's main Super PAC spent more than $23 million on ads hitting DeSantis in Iowa and not Trump, per AdImpact. 👂 What we're hearing: DeSantis' team was surprised that Haley announced a $4 million ad buy in South Carolina next week — believing that if Haley had spent that money in Iowa, she could have edged out DeSantis for second place, according to a source familiar with DeSantis' operation. 🥊 Trump said he'll now "retire" his "Ron DeSanctimonious" nickname — and complimented the Florida governor on his run. 🗳️ Christie fans hope Haley shocks world DERRY, N.H. — Many fans of Chris Christie plan to vote for Nikki Haley in tomorrow's New Hampshire's primary. Why it matters: Christie hasn't made an endorsement since dropping out of the presidential race. But many of his anti-Trump supporters see Haley as the next best choice, Axios' Sophia Cai writes. Christie had 12% support in the Granite State before he left the race, according to a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll. Nearly two-thirds of Christie supporters picked Haley as their second choice. At least three members of Christie's New Hampshire Steering Committee are now backing Haley, including former Rep. Charlie Bass and business leaders Norm Olsen and Tom Boucher. Asked if she wanted Christie's endorsement, Haley told NewsNation's Leland Vittert: "No, I don't need it." Christie was caught on a hot mic shortly before he suspended his campaign saying that Haley is "going to get smoked" and that "she's not up for this." Read on.

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AI's threat to '24

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photos: Jacquelyn Martin/pool, David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

Experts have been warning for months that deepfakes and AI-generated content have the potential to wreak havoc on the 2024 election by persuading voters of things that aren't true — and undermining confidence in things that are. It's already happening. 📞 Driving the news: Some New Hampshire voters have been getting robocalls from a fake Joe Biden, encouraging them not to vote in tomorrow's primary. It's not Biden. But it sounds like him, down to using the word "malarkey." Some voters believed the president was calling them, NBC News reports. It's unknown who did it. 🚫 Separately, OpenAI shut down a tool created by supporters of long-shot Democratic candidate Dean Phillips. "DeanBot" used ChatGPT to simulate the experience of chatting with Philips. ChatGPT's terms of service prohibit political campaigning. 💡 Our thought bubble, from Axios AI+ co-author Ryan Heath: We can expect a wave of faked robocalls — and also video content — from now through Election Day. Go deeper: How to spot an AI-generated image.

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New Hampshire investigating fake Biden robocall meant to discourage voters ahead of primary

The New Hampshire attorney general’s office on Monday said it was investigating reports of an apparent robocall that used artificial intelligence to mimic President Joe Biden’s voice and discourage voters in the state from coming to the polls during Tuesday’s primary election.

https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-biden-ai-deepfake-robocall-f3469ceb6dd613079092287994663db5?

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Scoop: Biden-district House Rs warm to Trump

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

After sitting out the GOP primary to date, some House Republicans from districts President Biden carried in 2020 plan to start throwing their support behind former President Trump, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Why it matters: Trump is reasserting his dominance over the GOP as he zeroes in on the nomination — even with Republicans who are gambling their political fortunes by embracing his brand. Driving the news: Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) on Saturday became the first of the 17 Biden-district House Republicans to throw his support behind Trump. He likely won't be alone for long. "I expect to ultimately endorse Donald Trump for president," Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.), whose district voted for Biden by nearly 11 percentage points in 2020, told Axios. Duarte said the GOP primary is "consolidating fast" and that he "will strongly support the Republican candidate," adding, "We need to save America from Joe Biden's frailties, corruption and failures." Another Biden-district Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Axios they plan to endorse Trump, though their timeline is uncertain. State of play: Trump is facing off with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tomorrow in the New Hampshire primary, with polls suggesting the former president is on track to win decisively. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Haley trailing Trump by 18.2 percentage points in New Hampshire — and facing even larger deficits in South Carolina and nationwide. Trump's landslide win in the Iowa caucuses and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' exit from the race have prompted a sudden burst of new endorsements for Trump, most recently from Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). Zoom in: One key Trump endorser is House Republicans' campaign chief. "Iowa sent a strong signal that Republican voters want the party to unify behind Donald Trump," National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said in a post on X yesterday. "He is the presumptive nominee. It is time to come together, kick Joe Biden out of office, and get our country back on track," Hudson added. Between the lines: GOP strategist Mike Madrid predicted the "vast majority" of Biden-district and swing-district Republicans will end up supporting Trump. "The calculation is: Can you risk alienating ... your base by not supporting him and then taking your chances with the moderates?" he said, noting college-educated swing voters in places like New York and California are an increasingly tough sell for even down-ballot Republicans. The GOP base is "moving from college-educated to non-college-educated voters," Madrid said — making Republicans more reliant on the low-propensity voters Trump turns out in presidential elections.

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🛡️ Trump's enforcer

Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) used her time on the campaign trail in New Hampshire this weekend to show exactly why she's on the shortlist to be Trump's vice president. Why it matters: Stefanik — who explicitly acknowledged the importance of "loyalty" to Trump as a top priority for any Republican — zealously defended the former president in ways that strained credulity. Stefanik refused to acknowledge, for example, that Trump was mistaken when he said Nikki Haley — not former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — was in charge of Capitol security on Jan. 6. "That wasn't a mix-up," the No. 4 House Republican insisted to NBC News. "The reality is Nikki Haley is relying on Democrats, just like Nancy Pelosi, to try to have a desperate showing in New Hampshire." The Trump campaign later blocked an NBC reporter from its event after he grilled Stefanik on whether she believed E. Jean Carroll's sexual assault allegations against Trump, to which she responded: "Of course not. ... The media is so biased." Today, Stefanik was fact-checked on X for falsely claiming that the judge in Carroll's defamation case delayed Trump's testimony to intentionally interfere with tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. In reality, Trump's lawyer asked for the trial to be adjourned due to concerns about COVID exposure and a sick juror.

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⛰️ New Hampshire minefield

A Biden supporter holds up a sign during a Get Out the Vote event in Dover, New Hampshire. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Stunning stat: For the first time this election cycle, Biden is facing more active primary opponents in New Hampshire than Trump is, Semafor's Dave Weigel reports. The president's opponents include Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), Marianne Williamson and a coordinated push by pro-Palestinian activists to write in the word "ceasefire." Why it matters: Biden is expected to decisively win through write-in votes in New Hampshire, where his name won't appear on the ballot due to a dispute over the DNC's primary calendar shuffle. But the option for protest votes — and a last-minute disruption from a fake AI-generated robocall — could produce hurdles to the dominant victory the Biden campaign is hoping for.

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Trump seeks control of the Republican primary in New Hampshire against Nikki Haley, his last major rival Donald Trump is aiming for a commanding victory Tuesday in New Hampshire, securing a sweep of the first two Republican primary races that would make a November rematch with President Joe Biden look more likely than ever. The biggest question is whether Trump’s last major rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, will be able to eat into his margin — or pull off an upset outright. Read more.

Why this matters: In the first results released early Tuesday, all six voters of Dixville Notch cast their ballots for Haley over Trump. The resort town is the only one in New Hampshire this year that opted to vote at midnight. Haley has also dedicated significant time and financial resources to the state.   Trump’s allies are already pressuring Haley to leave the race and those calls will intensify if he wins New Hampshire easily. Were she to drop out, that would effectively decide the Republican primary on its second stop, well before the majority of Republican voters across the country have been able to vote.

Related coverage ➤ Nikki Haley sweeps Dixville Notch’s primary, winning all 6 votes This is why zero delegates are at stake when Democrats vote in New Hampshire WATCH: Trump calls on supporters to help him win big in final push before NH primary

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Live Updates: Trump and Haley face off in New Hampshire’s primary

The race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is down to two major candidates for Tuesday’s New Hampshire first-in-the-nation GOP primary.

https://apnews.com/live/ new-hampshire-primary-results-updates?

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New Hampshire votes

Nikki Haley won a symbolic victory in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, carrying all six votes in the tiny village that casts its ballots as soon as the clock turns to Election Day.

• She'll need a lot more than six votes, though, to spoil a Trump-Biden sequel.
• If she doesn't get them, the surprisingly anticlimactic GOP primary will end with a whimper, giving way to the long slog of the general election — a rematch that a whole lot of Americans didn't want.

What to watch: Most polls close in New Hampshire at 7 p.m.; they'll all be closed by 8 p.m.

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Scorched-earth Trump

New Hampshire's voters last night drove home a rare consensus between former President Trump, the Biden campaign and top Republicans in Congress:

• The GOP primary is over, and it's time for the general election to begin, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

Why it matters: There's one problem. Nikki Haley, who's headed for a double-digit loss to Trump, used her concession speech to insist that the race is "far from over."

• A disgusted Trump lashed out in response, dropping any pretense of civility as he ripped Haley as an "imposter" standing in his way.

🔎 Zoom in: Haley's speech clearly got under the skin of the GOP front-runner, who unleashed a torrent of grievance-filled posts on Truth Social before taking the stage for a victory speech that was overshadowed by his anger.

• "You can't let people get away with bulls**t. And when I watched her in the fancy dress that probably wasn't so fancy, I said: 'What's she doing? We won,'" Trump said.

Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals. Interactive map here.

Ironically, Trump repeated many of his false claims about past elections — including that he won New Hampshire in 2020 — while calling Haley "delusional" for acting as if she had a good night.

• Demanding that Haley drop out, Trump went on to say that she would "be under investigation" if she won — ominously suggesting there are skeletons in Haley's closet that "she doesn't want to talk about."

Between the lines: Fresh off his own write-in victory in New Hampshire, Biden issued a statement declaring it's "now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee" and that "the stakes could not be higher."

• Trump is the presidential matchup that Bidenworld has been rooting for. But a drawn-out primary in which Haley continues to highlight the former president's vulnerabilities also would be welcomed.
• As Trump told Fox News: "If [Haley] doesn't drop out, we have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus."

🔮 What to watch: Haley has 31 days to decide whether she wants to risk humiliation in her home-state South Carolina primary, where polls suggest Trump has a big lead — or embrace what appears to be inevitable.

• Her donors will be making a similar calculation.

Data: AP. Chart: Rahul Mukherjee and Jacque Schrag/Axios

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🌀 Haley spins in defeat

Nikki Haley delivers remarks at her primary night rally in Concord, N.H. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images You wouldn't know it from the tone of her speech, but Nikki Haley's path to the nomination is virtually non-existent after she failed to win in the Granite State, Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: Moderate New Hampshire was her most favorable state on the early primary map. Even with her odds evaporating, Haley delivered one of the sharpest speeches of her campaign — calmly needling Trump over his court cases, mental competence, refusal to debate and record of losing elections. "Today, we got close to half of the vote," an upbeat Haley declared to the raucous crowd at her watch party, where she vowed to challenge Trump next month in her home state of South Carolina and beyond. "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election," the 52-year-old Haley quipped in a shot at both Trump and Biden. Cover: New Hampshire Union Leader Cover: Boston Globe Watch Haley's speech ... Trump's speech.

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🫏 Biden's campaign shakeup

Biden speaks at a campaign rally in Manassas, Va., yesterday. Photo: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters In the face of grim poll numbers, two top White House aides are leaving to join the Biden re-election campaign in Wilmington, Del., Axios' Alex Thompson writes. Deputy chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon — who managed President Biden's general election bid in 2020 — and senior adviser Mike Donilon will move to the campaign in the coming weeks. Why it matters: The Biden team has publicly projected calm. But the personnel moves are a reaction to deep anxieties among Democrats, Biden's team and the president himself that the re-election campaign is falling behind. Biden's most trusted aides have remained in the White House. So top campaign officials weren't fully empowered to make many decisions without the West Wing signing off. Donilon, one of Biden's most trusted political aides, has worked with him since the 1980s. Except for the president himself, Donilon is often the last person to review and change Biden's speeches. O'Malley Dillon took over as Biden's 2020 campaign manager just as he became the Democratic nominee. Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals 📱 Behind the scenes: Biden last night phoned Granite State Democrats Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Sen. Maggie Hassan, Rep. Ann McLane Kuster and former Gov. John Lynch after write-in results came in.

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‘Honored to have your back, and you have mine': Biden endorsed by United Auto Workers in election

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden picked up an endorsement from the United Auto Workers union Wednesday, an important boost to the Democratic president’s reelection bid as he pushes to sway blue-collar workers his way in critical auto-making swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-auto-workers-endorsement-trump-election-ef4b26cd00fc67c4915f22e54b885866?

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GOP presses Haley to drop out

A growing chorus of Republicans is pressing Nikki Haley to drop out of the presidential race, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

💬 Details: "I'm looking at the map and the path going forward, and I don't see it for Nikki Haley," RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, who previously said the RNC would stay "neutral," said last night on Fox News.

• At least half a dozen congressional Republicans united around the former president after his projected victory.
• "It's now past time for the Republican Party to unite around President Trump," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a statement.

🧐 What's next: Establishment-minded GOP donors flocked to Haley before New Hampshire. They're now asking themselves whether they think she still has a chance to win.

• Haley plans to skip Nevada, the next contest in the GOP primary, to focus on her home state of South Carolina.
• But Trump has a commanding polling lead there, along with endorsements from all but one member of the state's GOP congressional delegation.

Go deeper.

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Trump's shrinking tent

Former President Trump's 11-point victory in New Hampshire has been upstaged not just by Nikki Haley's refusal to drop out, but by a set of flashing red alarms about his weaknesses with independents and moderate voters.

Why it matters: Trump, like any candidate, will need a broad coalition to win in November — one that casts a far wider net than the core MAGA base responsible for his dominant victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.

• As the primary gives way to the longest general election campaign in modern history, there's no indication that Trump will moderate or change to the degree necessary to bring back swing voters he lost in 2020.
• Even if he does, will it be enough to sway the skeptics alienated by his legal issues and years of public bombast? New Hampshire suggests the reality of Trump's challenges will soon become impossible to ignore.

Zoom in: As MSNBC's Steve Kornacki pointed out, New Hampshire's GOP primary has never seen a wider gap between the preferences of independents and Republican voters than last night's results:

• Trump won Republican voters 74% to 25%, while Haley won independents 58% to 39%, according to CNN's exit polls.
• 83% of Haley voters — and 42% of voters overall — said they would not consider Trump to be fit for office if he were convicted of a crime.
• Most importantly, Fox News' voter analysis found that 35% of New Hampshire's voters would be so dissatisfied with a Trump nomination that they would not vote for him in November.

The other side: New Hampshire's unique primary system allowed Democrats to vote in the GOP primary if they switched their party registration by October, suggesting some of these voters were always a lost cause for Trump.

• And to be sure, President Biden faces his own general election challenges — he's bleeding support from minorities and young voters, and his age remains a top concern for many voters.
• That's why the Biden campaign is painting November's election as a binary choice between the president and Trump more than a referendum.

Between the lines: The warning signs for Trump run deeper than just the data — just look at the rhetoric yesterday from his allies:

• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who appeared on stage with Trump for his victory speech, said the GOP is "completely eradicating" any Republican who doesn't adapt to Trump's policies.
• Asked how he'll get skeptical Haley supporters to vote for him in November, Trump told reporters: "They're going to all vote for me again. ... And I'm not sure we need too many."

The bottom line: The suggestion that New Hampshire was Never Trumpers' "last stand" misses the point: These voters may have lost the GOP primary, but there are signs they could have the last laugh in November.