Members phkrause Posted February 16 Author Members Share Posted February 16 Within Trump's grasp Former President Trump's legal team has to be feeling about as good as it's possible to feel while fending off this many legal challenges at once, Axios' Sam Baker writes. Why it matters: Trump wants two things in his myriad court cases — victories and delays. Both are well within reach. In Fulton County, Georgia, there seemed to be a chance after a hearing today that Fani Willis could be removed as the lead prosecutor in that case against Trump, which is centered on his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Legal experts told the New York Times they didn't see proof of a clear conflict of interest, but former federal prosecutor Caren Morrison said, "This has not been a good day for the D.A.'s office." In D.C., Trump has asked the Supreme Court to decide whether he's immune from Jack Smith's Jan. 6 prosecution — and to stop that case from going to trial in the meantime. Also in D.C., the Supreme Court seems inclined to let Trump back on the ballot in Colorado's GOP primary — another key win. Zoom in: Neither of the delays would be a win on the merits. But stopping these trials from proceeding before the election would still be an enormous coup for Trump. If Willis is removed from the Georgia case, another prosecutor could take it on. But some analysts have suggested there's a chance no one would pick up the reins, and the case could simply slip away altogether. If Trump succeeds in keeping the Jan. 6 case on ice and does win the presidency, he likely would never have to stand trial. And the court may not answer the big-picture question of presidential immunity at all. A trial date of March 25 was set today in Trump's Manhattan case related to hush-money payments. That case is salacious and potentially embarrassing. But legal experts see it as perhaps the weakest of criminal cases against Trump. Reality check: These positive vibes for Trump could evaporate overnight if Willis stays on the case, the Supreme Court allows Smith's prosecution to continue, or both occur. Both center on his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And both are in unfriendly locations for jury selection. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 18 Author Members Share Posted February 18 Joe Manchin won't enter 2024 presidential race Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will not enter the 2024 presidential race, he announced in a speech at West Virginia University on Friday. https://www.axios.com/2024/02/16/joe-manchin-2024-presidential-race? Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 19 Author Members Share Posted February 19 Trump's phone-a-friend ploy Illustration: Axios Visuals Former President Trump has cut back on rallies to save money and sit in court. But he often phones into other conservative celebrities' onstage events, Axios' Sophia Cai reports. Why it matters: It's an efficient, cheap way to connect with fans and surrogates — and to court fringe followers without appearing in photos with them. 🤫 Behind the scenes: Many of Trump's call-ins are presented as surprises. But almost all are planned, a campaign official tells Axios. Someone at the event starts a three-way call with the speaker onstage and Trump, who's at Mar-a-Lago or his golf club in Bedminster, N.J. A speaker who chats regularly with Trump may dial the former president while onstage, after giving Trump a heads-up. Trump is prepared with the names of local officials in the audience. He thanks them for their support — then launches into remarks that typically lavish praise on the host. Case in point: Trump called into Michael Flynn's ReAwaken America Tour, a Christian nationalist road show, last year. Reawaken America members tout QAnon conspiracy theories. Trump has phoned into gatherings supporting Jan. 6 defendants — and more conventional events that feature Trump loyalists. Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson held his phone up to the mic for a live message from Trump during a Pennsylvania Republican State Committee dinner this month. Trump rang into Kari Lake's speech at the Hidalgo County GOP Reagan Dinner in McAllen, Texas, last August. 🥊 Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung told us: "People can't get enough of him, even if it's spurts of him." Hear a Trump phone-in. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 21 Author Members Share Posted February 21 💰 Biden's colossal cash advantage President Biden gestures to Marine One's pilots after returning to the White House from Rehoboth Beach, Del., yesterday. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP President Biden's re-election team now has $130 million in the bank, while the RNC has little cash and Donald Trump's team is spending tens of millions on legal bills. Why it matters: Despite Democratic angst over the president's poor polling, the Biden campaign announced this morning that it raised $42 million in January — adding to his vast fundraising advantage over Trump and the RNC, Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson write. 🧮 By the numbers: The RNC started the year with over $8 million in cash on hand. Trump's campaign had $33 million on hand. Neither has released fundraising totals for January. Biden, the DNC and other affiliated committees raked in contributions at the same time his Republican rivals were attacking each other. Trump's legal problems — which cost his political fundraising apparatus $50+ million last year — show no signs of going away. Reality check: Incumbent presidents often have a financial advantage going into an election year. Trump and the RNC had more cash at this point in 2020 before Biden ultimately made up ground. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 21 Author Members Share Posted February 21 Nikki Haley is sharpening contrasts with Donald Trump Nikki Haley is using the closing days of her South Carolina Republican primary matchup with Donald Trump to hone her argument that she is the lone remaining candidate who can unite Americans. Read more. Why this matters: It’s a tall order for Haley as South Carolina prepares to vote on Saturday. Trump’s 2016 primary win helped cement his front-runner status, and he boasts support from all of the state’s top elected leaders and all but one of its congressional Republicans. At a campaign stop in Sumter, home to an Air Force base as well as many military veterans, Haley said Trump is “siding with a thug” in Vladimir Putin, whom she called “a dictator who killed his political opponents.” In a new television ad, part of a $6 million advertising flurry Haley has released in the final weeks of the campaign, she argues she is the only choice among the remaining candidates who can handle disputes with foreign leaders in a way that will keep America on solid footing abroad. Related coverage ➤ The Republican Party is seeing a growing acceptance of Russian expansionism GOP Senate contenders aren't shy about wanting Trump's approval. But in Pennsylvania, it's awkward Biden heads to California to rev up his fundraising Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 21 Author Members Share Posted February 21 "I refuse to quit" Nikki Haley runs up to the stage during a campaign event at the historic Robert Mills Courthouse yesterday in Camden, S.C. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images A defiant Nikki Haley vowed to stay in the race beyond Saturday's primary in her home state of South Carolina, no matter how she performs there, Axios' Erin Doherty reports. "I have no fear of Trump's retribution," Haley said in a speech today. "I'm not looking for anything from him. My own political future is of zero concern." "He's gotten more unstable and unhinged. He spends more time in courtrooms than he does on the campaign trail," Haley said. Go deeper. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 22 Author Members Share Posted February 22 Haley: "This isn't Russia" Nikki Haley says she won't "kiss the ring" of Donald Trump despite her overwhelming odds against upstaging him for the Republican presidential nomination. "He's gotten more unstable and unhinged; he spends more time in courtrooms than he does on the campaign trail," Haley said in a South Carolina speech ahead of the state's primary Saturday. "He's so obsessed with his own demons from the past, he can't focus on delivering a future Americans deserve." The bottom line: Haley is looking ahead to Super Tuesday on March 5. "Ten days after South Carolina, another 20 states vote. I mean, this isn't Russia. We don't want someone to go in and just get 99% of the vote," Haley told AP. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 22 Author Members Share Posted February 22 Trump in S.C. Ahead of Saturday, former President Trump had some taunting for Haley during a Fox News town hall with Laura Ingraham: "You are not supposed to lose your home state. It shouldn't happen anyway. And she is losing it bigly. ... But we are really going to do a job." Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 23 Author Members Share Posted February 23 Nikki Haley wades into IVF fight Nikki Haley commented today on a new Alabama Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos should be protected as "unborn life." "Embryos, to me, are babies," Haley told NBC News. "When you talk about an embryo, you are talking about, to me, that's a life. And so I do see where that's coming from when they talk about that." The big picture: Alabama has one of the strictest bans on abortions in the country, and the court's decision on Friday resulted in the University of Alabama at Birmingham pausing IVF treatments. "We are saddened that this will impact our patients' attempt to have a baby through IVF, but we must evaluate the potential that our patients and our physicians could be prosecuted criminally or face punitive damages for following the standard of care for IVF treatments." Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 23 Author Members Share Posted February 23 Nikki Haley is trying to upset Trump in her home state during South Carolina's Republican primary Nikki Haley’s best-case scenario for Saturday’s primary might be to do well enough to make March 5’s Super Tuesday slate somewhat competitive against Donald Trump. An upset, though, is a longshot in a state where Republicans like their former governor but love the former president. Read more. Why this matters: Trump is looking to complete an early state sweep after scoring big wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Haley has a chance to narrow the margin and dampen Trump’s momentum. In 2016, three Trump rivals made home-turf primaries their points of pride. Trump sailed to the nomination anyway. Related coverage ➤ AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary Nikki Haley’s dilemma in South Carolina: winning over voters who like her, but love Trump Nikki Haley hasn't yet won a GOP contest. But she's not quitting Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 23 Author Members Share Posted February 23 Old men lace up Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios Two very old guys are courting voters 60 years their junior: President Biden, 81, and former President Trump, 77, are tapping into sneaker fashion and social media to try to impress disillusioned and disinterested Gen Z and Millennial voters, Axios' Sophia Cai writes. Why it matters: Young voters made up about 17% of the electorate in 2020 — and were especially key for Biden. But polls suggest the Israel-Hamas war has helped Trump slice into Biden's margin among voters 18-34. During the past two weeks, Biden joined TikTok, appeared on "Meet Cutes NYC" to share his Jill Biden love story. His campaign posted a TikTok responding to Jimmy Fallon's roast about his age. Biden recorded a video ahead of Super Bowl Sunday to complain about snacks coming in smaller sizes — calling on food companies not to play Americans for "suckers." The White House yesterday announced plans to forgive another $1.2 billion in student loans. The 153,000 people affected by the move will receive letters from Biden this week — reminders of who made it possible. Biden's campaign hired a director of youth engagement and director of celebrity engagement. The other side: Trump last week launched a new shoe line at Sneaker Con in Philadelphia, where he met with influencers and a luxury watch dealer who paid $9,000 for autographed "Never Surrender" high-tops. Trump has courted young men at sporting events including UFC fights, — and young Black men through nods from rappers such as 50 Cent and Snoop Dogg, who've changed their tune on Trump since the 2020 election. Trump allies say they've noticed less reluctance among celebrities to publicly support Trump in this election. 🥊 Reality check: The Biden campaign's TikTok account has been flooded with criticism about Gaza. Trump was booed at SneakerCon. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 23 Author Members Share Posted February 23 Trump talks debating Biden, working with McConnell at Fox town hall GREENVILLE – In a wide-ranging interview with Fox TV personality Laura Ingraham Tuesday, former President Donald Trump said he was willing to debate President Joe Biden and suggested he might not be able to work with Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a theoretical second term. https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/02/21/trump-talks-debating-biden-working-with-mcconnell-at-fox-town-hall/? Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 25 Author Members Share Posted February 25 VP survivor show Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images An open mic set is playing right now for Trump's vice presidential contenders. Why it matters: Trump's flights of fancy are is leaving the hopefuls scrambling to keep proving their worth — and their loyalty. You're seeing it in South Carolina ahead of Saturday's primary, where Trump deployed the state's junior senator, Tim Scott, to campaign against Nikki Haley, who appointed him to the Senate. Scott said voters "really want a bull in a china shop for a little while first" instead of the optimistic message of his own campaign, he told the Wall Street Journal. Scott said he's "free from the internal struggle on how to promote myself without being braggadocious." You will also see it this weekend just outside D.C., where the speaker list for the Conservative Political Action Conference has most of the names on Trump's public short list. Rep. Elise Stefanik at a January campaign rally in Concord, New Hampshire. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images The speaker list includes Rep. Elise Stefanik, Rep. Byron Donalds, Sen. J.D. Vance, Gov. Kristi Noem, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Senate candidate Kari Lake. Trump said "they are" when asked this week if Scott, Donalds, Ramaswamy, Noem, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard are on his short list. Between the lines: DeSantis criticized the Trump team's search process during a private call with supporters this week, the N.Y. Times scooped. "I have heard that they're looking more in identity politics. I think that's a mistake," DeSantis told supporters. DeSantis said he wouldn't serve as VP, echoing his comments during the campaign. Trump adviser Jason Miller fired back at DeSantis, threatening that "Thor's hammer will return" if "his popping off continues." Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 25 Author Members Share Posted February 25 Trump faces warning signs that his fundraising prowess may have limits in 2024 Donald Trump’s legendary ability to raise massive sums of political cash may be facing a new reality. Campaign finance reports show that in January, two key committees in his political operation raised just $13.8 million, while spending more than that on costs like legal fees from his court cases. Read more. Why this matters: Trump’s diminished cashflow presents an alarming picture of the overwhelming favorite to be the GOP’s presidential nominee, particularly to donors and RNC committee members who aren’t eager to subsidize his legal challenges. Some are instead backing his last standing rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. She outraised Trump’s primary campaign committee by nearly $3 million last month. Related coverage ➤ Lara Trump says she thinks GOP voters would like to see RNC pay Donald Trump's legal fees Trump's lawyers call for dismissal of classified documents case, citing presidential immunity Trump pledges to defend Christianity against the left, which he says wants 'to tear down crosses' Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 25 Author Members Share Posted February 25 Biden's cheat sheets Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photo: Samuel Corum/Sipa via Getty Images President Biden has been using notecards in closed-door fundraisers, calling on prescreened donors and then consulting his notes to provide detailed answers, according to people familiar with the routine. Why it matters: Biden's reliance on notecards to help explain his own policy positions — on questions he knows are coming — is raising concerns among some donors about Biden's age, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. 🖼️ The big picture: The staged Q&A sessions have left some donors wondering whether Biden can withstand the rigors of a presidential campaign. Most recent presidents — including George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump have carried crib notes — or used teleprompters — to help guide them through some events and meetings. In Biden's case, donors have noticed Biden is also using notecards in private events. What we're hearing: Biden's notecards are partly the result of a detail-oriented staff that wants to ensure Biden's fundraisers are successful. They have been: Biden's robust fundraising schedule has given his campaign and the DNC a colossal cash advantage over Republicans with the election less than nine months away. Biden advisers say the president is given notecards only for very technical questions, and say he frequently does spontaneous Q&As. 🔎 Zoom in: Most of Biden's conversations with donors are shielded from public view. The president begins his remarks with reporters, but not TV cameras, in the room. There's frequently a teleprompter to help him stay on track. After his opening comments at fundraisers, reporters are ushered out of the venue — often a supporter's elegant home — before donors are allowed to ask two or three questions vetted by the president's staff. In some impromptu Q&A sessions, certain donors have been impressed. "He's always been an extemporaneous speaker, and he spoke off-the-cuff. Not scripted at all," said Fred Hochberg, a donor who attended a New York fundraiser earlier this month. Biden's campaign dismissed concerns about his notecard use. "In news that matters to the American people when it comes to the 2024 election today: Three IVF clinics in Alabama ceased operations out of fear of criminal prosecution by the state — all at the feet of Donald Trump," Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said, referring to an Alabama court's ruling that frozen embryos are children. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 25 Author Members Share Posted February 25 🐘 Exclusive: New super PAC joins Trumpworld A well-funded new super PAC to help former President Trump in the general election has been started by staunch allies in Florida — with Trump family insider Sergio Gor as CEO, Axios has learned. The first big donor to Right for America is billionaire Ike Perlmutter, former chairman of Marvel Entertainment, who's friends with Trump and a Mar-a-Lago member. Perlmutter was one of Trump's biggest givers in 2020. Why it matters: With optimism rising in Trumpworld that he'd beat President Biden in a rematch, Republican donors will be looking for splashy ways to give. They now have a new outlet. 🎨 The big picture: Right for America says it's complementary to the main pr0-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc. (MAGA PAC). MAGA Inc. doesn't appear to be slowing down: The PAC held two events this week, with Trump as a special guest, in Nashville and Greenville, S.C. Guests included Sens. Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn (both R-Tenn.), Dennis Quaid and Kid Rock. The events together netted over $6 million. 👓 Between the lines: Some in Trump's orbit tell Axios they have serious concerns that a vehicle of such strategic importance — with a potentially huge amount of money — will be in the hands of people who haven't run a similar-sized enterprise. Gor said in response: "We look forward to re-electing President Trump in November." Besides Gor, the other two board members are Lee Rizzuto, who was Trump's consul general in Bermuda, and Anthony Lomangino, a longtime New York friend and entrepreneur. Gor runs (with Donald Trump Jr.) Winning Team Publishing, which published both of Trump's post-White House books. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 Scoop! Dark Trump: "Biden's fast track to hell" Trump supporters at CPAC in Oxon Hill, Md., on Thursday. Photo: Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/Reuters Former President Trump, in a speech to conservatives this afternoon, will paint a dark, distorted picture of an America ravaged by crime, violence, bloodshed, chaos and tyranny, according to excerpts shared exclusively with Axios AM. Trump presents himself as the only brake on "Biden's fast track to hell." Why it matters: On the closing day of the annual CPAC conference in Oxon Hill, Md., Trump will sermonize a vision of himself as The One, the savior. Senior campaign officials tell us Trump will lay out his general-election case against Biden in the 1 p.m. speech — flipping the "four more years" argument to a series of dire warnings about Biden's re-election. "Four years ago," Trump says in prepared remarks, "I told you that if Crooked Joe Biden got to the White House, our borders would be abolished, our middle class would be decimated, and our communities would be plagued by bloodshed, chaos and violent crime. As the saying goes: Trump was right about everything." "Crooked Joe and his henchmen have you trapped on an express train barreling toward ruin and servitude," Trump continues. "A vote for Trump is your ticket back to freedom. It's your passport out of tyranny. And it's your only escape from Joe Biden's fast track to hell." Trump will ask listeners at CPAC — which bills itself as the "largest and most influential gathering of conservatives in the world" — to imagine inflation and immigration after four more years of Biden, and how out of control the Justice Department would be. He'll argue the world would be more chaotic, and streets and college campuses more dangerous. "The unprecedented success of the United States of America will be my ultimate and absolute revenge," Trump plans to say, in a reprise of a line he recently introduced. If Biden wins, Trump's script says, "the worst is yet to come." Trump — who's under indictment for fighting the outcome of his first election against Biden — will call himself a "freedom fighter" against a corrupt political system. 🥊 Reality check: Violent crime has decreased under Biden, according to FBI figures. Attorney General Merrick Garland has said he'd resign if Biden asked him to take action against Trump. Trump said last month to "blame it on me" if a border bill failed. Axios' Neil Irwin has written that the U.S. economy grew faster than any rival last year, by a wide margin, and is on track to do so again this year. 🖼️ The big picture: Trump will speak while polls are open in South Carolina's Republican primary, where he's a heavy favorite against Nikki Haley, the state's former governor. Trump officials vow this is the last day they'll devote any time to Haley — moving decisively into general-election mode even before the former president officially clinches the Republican nomination. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 🐘 Trump's GOP extreme week Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Mandel Ngan/AFP, Andrea Ronchini/NurPhoto via Getty Images If former President Trump and his fellow Republicans lose in November, weeks like this might be to blame. Why it matters: The far-right stamp Trump has put on the GOP will complicate the party's push for swing voters in November. Over the course of the week, Trump's GOP was tied to calling frozen embryos children, appeals to kill democracy, and giving Vladimir Putin a pass on targeting his enemies, Axios managing editor David Lindsey writes. ⚖️ A conservative Alabama court's ruling that frozen embryos are children has prompted fertility clinics in the Republican-led state to shut down out of fear of being prosecuted. Now Trump and Republicans in Congress are scrambling to denounce the decision, which stemmed from a Trump-orchestrated ruling they loved — the Supreme Court's rejection of abortion rights under Roe v. Wade. Trump yesterday called on Alabama's legislature to protect in vitro fertilization (IVF), the procedure the clinics performed. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 🗳️ Haley tests Trump's suburban strength Haley speaks during a campaign event in Mt Pleasant, S.C., yesterday. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images MONCKS CORNER, S.C. — Nikki Haley hopes suburban voters — Republicans who haven't fallen in line with Donald Trump's MAGA movement — will give her a boost in today's primary in South Carolina, her home state. Reality check: Haley's confronting a voter base that has changed since she left the governor's office in 2017. The state — including its suburbs — seems increasingly aligned with Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai reports. The big picture: Trump's improvement among suburban voters since 2020 has been a low-key storyline in the GOP contests so far. He dominated all three contests, and in New Hampshire he won the large suburban counties that Haley needed to win to have any chance of an upset. There are signs that could be the case in South Carolina, where polls suggest Trump leads by 30+ points. During the past two weeks, Haley has campaigned aggressively in the suburbs of Charleston, Charlotte and Columbia. But many of those voters are newcomers who don't recall her time as governor. Go deeper. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 🐘 1 big thing: Trump's demographic problem Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals If America were dominated by old, white, election-denying Christians who didn't go to college, former President Trump would win the general election in as big of a landslide as his sweep of the first four GOP contests. Why it matters: It's not. That's why some top Republicans are worried about the general election in November, despite Trump's back-to-back-to-back-to-back wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Trump was declared the winner of yesterday's South Carolina's Republican Party the second that polls closed — trouncing Nikki Haley by 20 points (60% to 40%) in the state where she was governor. "The primary ends tonight," the Trump campaign announced, even though he can't officially clinch the nomination until next month. 🧮 By the numbers: Trump wins with older white voters without college diplomas who believe the last election was rigged, according to network exit polls and AP VoteCast, which interviewed 2,440 South Carolina primary voters over five days. Where he won: Two-thirds of Trump voters were white and didn't go to college. (VoteCast) Three-quarters of those without a college degree went for Trump. (CNN) 83% of "angry" voters backed Trump. (ABC) Where he lost: 75% of Haley supporters correctly said Biden was legitimately elected president in 2020 (about 40% of them voted for Biden). (VoteCast) A stunning 62% of Republican primary voters said Biden wasn't legitimately elected. (NBC) Those who went to the polls reflected Trump's strengths: This was the oldest South Carolina GOP electorate this century. (Chuck Todd) 60% of primary voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. (CNN) 🥊 Reality check: That group isn't remotely big enough to win a presidential election. He would need to attract voters who are more diverse, more educated and believe his first loss was legit. South Carolina exit polls show he didn't do that. That's why Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the Senate's only Black Republican, remains on Trump's short list for V.P. A bigger problem yet: Polls show these skeptics would be even less likely to swing his way if he's convicted of a crime — a real possibility among his four ongoing cases, insiders tell us. The strategy: Trump's campaign says that in the battleground states where the election will be decided, his message will appeal far beyond the GOP base that propelled him to the nomination. "This is going to be a referendum against Joe Biden and his policies," a top Trump adviser tells us. "As long as Trump can tap into voter disillusion about the economy, out-of-control immigration, and more foreign entanglements, those are issues that affect people from all backgrounds." 👀 Between the lines: Trump can't scare off swing voters as he works to scare them away from Biden by warning — as he did yesterday at CPAC — of bloodshed, tyranny, crime and violence if the president is re-elected. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 🗳️ Haley vows to stay in With no wins (and none in sight), Nikki Haley vowed to stay in the Republican primary after an embarrassing double-digit blow in her home state yesterday. Why it matters: Her path forward looks increasingly far-fetched, Axios' Erin Doherty writes. Haley congratulated the former president during remarks after her projected loss and reaffirmed her vow to stay in the race. "I am a woman of my word," she said. "I'm not giving up this fight when the majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden." "I'm grateful that today is not the end of our story," she said, adding that she is heading to Michigan today before Tuesday's primary. On the ground: Outside a voting location at Satchel Ford Elementary school outside of Columbia, there were more yard signs for local down-ballot candidates than there were for Nikki Haley or former President Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai reports from South Carolina. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 Biden shame campaign Photo illustration: Allie Carl/Axios. Photo: Bloomberg, SOPA Images, Jeff Kowalsky via Getty Images Michigan activists want to shock the Biden campaign in the state's Tuesday primary to take seriously the risk of losing Muslim and Arab American voters. Why it matters: The war in Gaza has hurt President Biden's support among the same voters who were crucial to him flipping the state from Trump in 2020, Axios Detroit co-author Sam Robinson reports. Activists want voters to back "uncommitted" instead of Biden. Biden has lost the community "at a fundamental level," says Abbas Alawieh, a spokesperson for the Listen to Michigan campaign, during Israel's military strikes — described as the most destructive in recent history. "[T]his is a warning to Biden like, get your s--t together or you're going to lose," said Adam Abusalah, a Dearborn native who worked on Biden's 2020 campaign and is now pushing the "uncommitted" campaign. Between the lines: Biden was targeted in New Hampshire's primary with a "ceasefire" write-in campaign that mostly went nowhere. Michigan has significant Muslim and Arab American populations and boasts high-profile Squad member Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who is pushing for "uncommitted." Zoom in: "There are a lot of intense feelings here in Michigan right now," Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) told Axios' Andrew Solender. "I don't think we needed the 'uncommitted' vote on Tuesday for the White House to understand that there are really just a lot of hurting people in Michigan." One prominent Michigan Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Biden team has been "late" to respond to the backlash from Arab American and young voters. The other side: "I don't think Joe Biden is going to be embarrassed on Tuesday," Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) told Axios. Stevens has seen "lots of energy and enthusiasm" for Biden in her district and has "not seen any movement otherwise really penetrate." "[H]e is working tirelessly to create a just, lasting peace in the Middle East," a Biden campaign spokesperson told NPR. The bottom line: Michigan's growing Arab American population voted more Republican until the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in the early 2000s under former President George W. Bush. Now the Trump campaign is courting these disaffected Biden voters. Before a rally in Michigan this month, Trump campaign officials met with local Republicans, including Arab Americans, the Detroit Free Press reported. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 The next Trump tests Former President Trump faces a five-week slog through states where he'll need to pivot hard to win in November, even as there's major work to do in unifying his own party. Why it matters: The primary's all but over. But unless Nikki Haley drops out soon, Trump will roll through contested primaries in five states that could easily swing in November. Michigan (Tuesday): Trump won by 10,700 votes in 2016, lost by 154,000 in 2020. North Carolina (March 5): Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, won by 74,000 in 2020. Georgia (March 12): Trump won by 211,000 votes in 2016, lost by 12,000 in 2020. Arizona (March 19): Trump won by 91,000 votes in 2016, lost by 10,000 in 2020. Wisconsin (April 2): Trump won by 23,000 votes in 2016, lost by 21,000 in 2020. Zoom out: Trump faces profound demographic issues, as we told you in Axios AM. Just look at the exit polls from the South Carolina GOP primary. 35% said he wouldn't be fit for office if convicted of a crime. (ABC) About a quarter of Trump's own voters think he's too extreme to win in November. (VoteCast) About 40% of Nikki Haley supporters said their vote was motivated by opposition to Trump. (CNN) The other side: "This is going to be a referendum against Joe Biden and his policies," a top Trump adviser told Axios' Mike Allen. "As long as Trump can tap into voter disillusion about the economy, out-of-control immigration and more foreign entanglements, those are issues that affect people from all backgrounds." What's next: After the Michigan primaries on Tuesday, the Democratic presidential campaign is off until Super Tuesday on March 5. Republicans will vote in Idaho and Missouri on March 2, D.C. on March 3 and North Dakota on March 4. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 AIPAC Ally Slams “Uncommitted” Voters Warning Biden to Change Course on Gaza Anti-war Michiganders are banding together in the crucial swing state to urge fellow voters to choose the “uncommitted” slot on their Democratic Party primary ballots next week, with the aim of getting President Joe Biden to shift his stance of unwavering support for Israel’s deadly assault on the Gaza Strip. https://theintercept.com/2024/02/23/biden-uncommitted-israel-gaza-aipac-michigan-primary/? Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members phkrause Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 Donald Trump’s Republican home field advantage is everywhere Donald Trump cruised to victory in the South Carolina primary with the support of an almost unwavering base of loyal voters, beating former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and further consolidating his path to a third straight Republican nomination. Read more. Why this matters: Trump has now won with ease in the Midwest, the Northeast and the South, bulldozing any regional differences that had existed in the party before his rise. Even in her home state of South Carolina, Haley appeared to have little chance against Trump as she’s struggled to convince the core of the Republican Party that she’s a better choice than the former president. Haley has said she will stay in the race until at least the Super Tuesday primaries, though so far there are no signs that she has disrupted Trump’s momentum. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Why AP isn’t using ‘presumptive nominee’ to describe Trump, Biden Michigan primary: What to watch as 2024 campaign shifts to the first big swing state Trump says his criminal indictments boosted his appeal to Black voters Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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