Candidates for President in 2024

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💰 Charted: Biden's huge money edge

Data: FEC. Chart: Axios Visuals Go deeper.

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🥊 Trump nixes Haley

Nikki Haley campaigns in March at the Sawyer Park Icehouse bar in Spring, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images Well, that was fast. A day after sources told Axios that Nikki Haley was under active consideration by Donald Trump's campaign to be his running mate, he stepped in and nixed the idea. "Nikki Haley is not under consideration for the V.P. slot, but I wish her well!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. He signed it "DJT," making clear it was a personal message. Spokespeople for Trump and Haley declined to comment on Friday when Axios asked about the possibility.

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Trump's Jersey show of force

Yesterday's Trump campaign rally on the beach in Wildwood, N.J. Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times via X. Used by kind permission

Former President Trump drew a rally crowd of 80,000 to 100,000, according to a city official's estimate, near the boardwalk in the Jersey Shore town of Wildwood in deep-blue New Jersey yesterday. Why it matters: The beachfront gathering was designed as a show of force at a critical moment for Trump, who faces 88 felony charges in four separate criminal cases with the election six months away, AP reports. ⚖️ Trump is back in court tomorrow. Key prosecution witness Michael Cohen, Trump's fixer-turned-foe, will take the stand in the hush-money case. 💰 High-stakes audit: Trump could owe the IRS more than $100 million, depending on the outcome of a yearslong battle over an accounting maneuver in which he "effectively claimed the same massive write-off twice on his failed Chicago tower," according to a joint investigation by the N.Y. Times and ProPublica. Keep reading.

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Denial and uncertainty loom over a Biden-Trump rematch

Wars, trials, the independent candidacy of Robert Kennedy Jr. and deep divisions across America have injected extraordinary uncertainty into a race for the White House in which either leading candidate would be the oldest president ever sworn in on Inauguration Day. At the same time, policy fights over abortion, immigration and the economy are raging on Capitol Hill and in statehouses. Hovering over it all is the disbelief of many voters that Biden and Trump will ultimately appear on the general election ballot this fall. Read more.

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Campaign rarity

In a 2024 rarity, President Biden and former President Trump campaigned yesterday at the same time.

Why it matters: Trump spends Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays in a courtroom — and Biden does most of his events during the week.

At a private fundraiser in Washington state, Biden said "it's clear that … when [Trump] lost in 2020, something snapped in him," CNN reports.

• "He's not only obsessed with losing in 2020, he's clearly unhinged," Biden said.

At a massive rally in New Jersey, Trump went on a bizarre tangent that connected Hannibal Lecter to migrants:

• "But Hannibal Lecter. Congratulations, the late great Hannibal Lecter. We have people who are being released into our country that we don't want in our country, and they're coming in totally unchecked, totally unvetted."

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Biden's polling denialism

President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers — and neither do many of his closest advisers.

• Why it matters: The dismissiveness of the poor polling is sincere, not public spin, Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team tell Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson.

That bedrock belief has informed Biden's steady-as-she-goes campaign — even as many Democrats outside the White House are agitating for the campaign to change direction, given that Biden is polling well behind where he was four years ago.

• In public and private, Biden is telling anyone who'll listen that he's gaining ground — and is probably up — on Donald Trump.
• "While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump," Biden told donors during a West Coast swing last week.

📊 By the numbers: The latest polling in the six battleground states likely to decide the presidential race — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — doesn't paint a rosy picture for Biden.

• A New York Times/Siena College poll, which sampled 4,000+ people across the swing states, had Trump winning five of them among registered voters, and Biden ahead in Wisconsin.
• A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll last month of seven swing states (including North Carolina) found Trump ahead in six — all except Michigan.

🥊 Reality check: Some national polls have shown Biden ahead or tied with Trump — and in several other polls the president is within the surveys' margins of error. That's given Democrats and Republicans alike ammunition to claim they have momentum.

• Biden likes to cite his numbers in a recent PBS/Marist poll, which shows him ahead by 3 points in a head-to-head race with Trump, with a margin of error of ±3.6 points.

💡 Polling errors in recent years prove that polling isn't destiny: Trump over-performed polls in 2016 and 2020. Democrats did better than expected in many 2022 midterm contests.

• Many aspects of Trump's candidacy, including his legal battles, are unprecedented — and add more mystery to election projections.

The bottom line: Some prominent Democrats think Biden insiders are in denial, and sleepwalking into defeat.

• Biden's team is convinced Americans won't re-elect Trump once they face the choice in November.

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2024 upends the debates

In a whirlwind few hours, President Biden and former President Trump have upended the traditional presidential debates — and moved to box out RFK Jr.

• Biden and Trump have accepted a CNN invite for a debate on June 27, the two candidates said this morning. That's before either party has its national convention to officially pick presidential nominees.
• RFK Jr. accused the two today of "colluding" against his campaign to "avoid discussion of their eight years of mutual failure."

Why it matters: Both Biden and Trump are genuinely convinced the country will side with them after seeing the two of them on stage together.

• Trump doesn't believe Biden has the mental or physical stamina for the job.
• Biden thinks people will recoil at Trump's behavior and rhetoric.

To catch you up on today's rapid-fire back and forth:

• Biden's campaign announced this morning it wouldn't take part in fall debates by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. It offered one-on-one debates with Trump in June and September, with no studio audience and microphones that could be cut.
• Trump immediately accepted, telling Salem Media radio host Hugh Hewitt he'll debate with any moderator.
• Biden then said he'd accepted the CNN debate, and Trump agreed.
• The Trump campaign then proposed extra debates in July and August.

Zoom in: The campaigns have agreed to debate with no audience, but they're still negotiating on how to handle cutting off microphones.

• The Trump and Biden campaigns recently held back-channel conversations about cutting the commission out of the process, the Washington Post reports.

The bottom line: RFK Jr. had a real chance at making the presidential debate stage for the traditional fall debates, but could be cut out by the moved-up timelines of the new contests.

• CNN's rules say a candidate needs four polls at 15% and they have to be on the ballot in enough states to secure 270 electoral votes.
• Kennedy recently scored one poll at 16%, CNN's Harry Enten pointed out earlier this week.
• Kennedy is on the ballot in four states, with ongoing efforts in 38 more.

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Biden and Trump, trading barbs, agree to 2 presidential debates, in June and September

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump on Wednesday agreed to hold two campaign debates — the first on June 27 hosted by CNN and the second on Sept. 10 hosted by ABC — setting the stage for their first presidential face-off to play out in just over a month.

https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8?

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Shock presidential debates

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Olivier Douliery/Pool

The candidates themselves were the most important driver behind the Trump-Biden debates announced today, Axios' Alex Thompson reports. Both Biden and Trump believe they can best the other one-on-one, according to people in both orbits. 🖼️ The big picture: Some aides in both camps aren't sure debates are strategically wise — or they see them as an unnecessary risk. Trump believes voters will see Biden as weak and old. Biden believes Trump will look radical and belligerent. 🍿 What to watch: Biden and Trump agreed to debate on CNN on June 27 — well before early voting begins and ahead of the summer conventions. Anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will moderate, the network announced. The other scheduled debate is Sept. 10 on ABC. Screenshot via X Between the lines: The campaigns have agreed to no audience for the CNN debate. They're still negotiating how to cut off microphones. 💬 Biden-Harris campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon said: "Donald Trump has a long history of playing games with debates: complaining about the rules, breaking those rules, pulling out at the last minute, or not showing up at all — which he's done repeatedly in all three cycles he's run for president." Trump, not following the usual playbook of raising expectations about a debate opponent, said on his Truth Social platform that Biden is "the WORST debater I have ever faced - He can't put two sentences together!" Go deeper.

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Debate X factor

Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

The Trump and Biden campaigns have lit a fire under RFK and his supporters. They may regret it. Why it matters: Kennedy might struggle to qualify for the June 27 CNN debate. But his campaign can now frame signing a ballot access petition — or mentioning his name to a pollster — as a way to stick it to Trump and Biden. To qualify, Kennedy will need to hit 15% in four high-quality national polls and to be on the ballot in enough states to have a shot at 270 electoral votes. He's got access to cash thanks to his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, who chipped in $4 million to help run his now-notorious Super Bowl ad. Kennedy campaign director Amaryllis Fox posted today, "We anticipate fulfilling all participation criteria" by the deadline. Zoom in: Trump and Biden's campaigns are both unhappy about CNN's debate qualification rules. A Trump official told The Washington Post a CNN producer had promised in a call today that "RFK will not be on the stage." A Biden adviser told Axios: "Our criteria for a 1:1 debate was made clear publicly, it was made clear to CNN and they understood our position when we accepted their offer." CNN told Axios that "candidates just need to meet the qualifications laid out to in the release. At this time, only Biden and Trump have qualified." Asked about the Biden adviser's comment, CNN declined to respond. Zoom out: The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates is now unlikely to attract headline candidates. It may get a chuckle at Biden and Trump's expense: "I'd love to be a fly on the wall as they are trying to agree on the terms," co-chair Frank Fahrenkopf Jr. told the Post. "One of the reasons we were created is campaigns could never agree on the most important things," he said.

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Trump's favorite words

Data: Axios analysis of 49 public Trump speeches from a database maintained by Rev. (OpenAI's ChatGPT 4 was used to help sort the phrases, which were confirmed by journalists.) Chart: Erin Davis/Axios In remarks about second-term plans, former President Trump often talks about banning mask and vaccine mandates, and deporting undocumented immigrants, an analysis by Axios' Erin Davis and Sophia Cai found. But he spends only about 11% of his time on policy plans, including what he'd do for the economy. These graphics show the most common phrases Axios found in 49 speeches, interviews and rallies from January 2023 through mid-April 2024. Data: Axios analysis of Rev transcripts. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals 🖼️ The big picture: Trump spends nearly 90% of his speeches talking about everything but his policy plans — strafing President Biden, denouncing Democratic policies, complaining that prosecutors are out to get him. Trump's team has laid out a detailed policy platform, branded Agenda47, on his campaign's website. He has proposed dramatically increasing presidential powers, and gutting protections for federal employees in order to stack the government with loyalists. But very few of those specifics make it into his speeches. Many of Trump's most common phrases reflect how he's made restricting immigration the cornerstone of his 2024 campaign. His most common pitches to voters on the issue: "stop the invasion," "terminate every single open border policy," reinstate the "Trump travel ban" and implement "ideological screening on all immigrants." 💵 The intrigue: Trump often mentions that he'd stop "Joe Biden's inflation nightmare." But noticeably absent from his most frequent policy references are phrases about how he plans to improve the economy, aside from his "drill baby, drill" calls to increase oil production. Axios used OpenAI's ChatGPT to research a database of public statements to determine phrase-usage frequency, but not to create the story content. Read our full story and methodology here.

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🗳️ Biden hedges debate bet

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Win McNamee/Getty Images and Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden, at 81, is betting big on his ability to square off with a rival who regularly questions his mental acuity and physical stamina, Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson write. Why it matters: Behind Biden's presidential debate gambit are a series of calculated hedges to minimize potential damage. 👀 Look past Biden's taunts and Trump's trolls: If Biden always planned to debate, he got what he wanted: two debates instead of the proposed three, no live audience, and plenty of time before Election Day to make up for any mistakes. The early timing (June 27, CNN ... Sept. 10, ABC) also gives Trump the ability to make up for any large errors on the stage. 🔭 Zoom out: Democrats are acutely aware of the risks of appearing on stage with Trump. "I myself would never recommend going on stage with Donald Trump, but the president has decided that's what he wants to do," former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNN. But Robert Gibbs — President Obama's first press secretary, now with Bully Pulpit International — said: "For Biden, not debating is a far bigger risk ... He gets the debate with the rules and no audience he wanted." "If he performs well, that risk can really pay off." Go deeper: Debate commission's cloudy future ...

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CNN sets first Biden-Trump presidential debate for June 27 in Atlanta

WASHINGTON — CNN announced on Wednesday morning that it will host a debate between President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at the network’s Atlanta studios on June 27.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/05/15/cnn-sets-first-biden-trump-presidential-debate-for-june-27-in-atlanta/?

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Biden's tightrope

Brown v. Board plaintiffs and their family members were invited to the White House today to meet with President Biden in honor of the landmark school desegregation ruling's 70th anniversary.

• Why it matters: Biden is expected to appear at several events this week before mostly Black voters. This group has historically backed him as a candidate — but could be less supportive of him this year, Axios' April Rubin reports.

⏳ A telling moment may occur this weekend, when Biden is set to deliver the commencement address at Morehouse College, an HBCU (Historically Black Colleges and Universities) in Atlanta.

Between the lines: The president's address comes as pro-Palestinian protests have sprouted up across U.S. college campuses.

• Some have called for Biden's speech at Morehouse to be canceled over his handling of the war in Gaza.

🖼️ The big picture: Black voter support for Trump in national and state polls has been "surprisingly robust," according to the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

• Our thought bubble, via Axios' senior justice and race reporter Russell Contreras: Some working class Black voters are showing signs they may be open to supporting Trump, but Democratic officials say there's still time to engage them and stop defections.

Go deeper.

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Biden-Harris campaign accepts VP debate invite from CBS

The Biden-Harris campaign said Thursday that it has accepted an invitation from CBS News to participate in a vice presidential debate in July or August.

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/16/biden-harris-vp-debate-trump-cbs?

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Trump campaigns in Minnesota, predicting he will win the traditionally Democratic state in November

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Former President Donald Trump used a day off from his hush money trial Friday to headline a Republican fundraiser in Minnesota, a traditionally Democratic state that he boasts he can carry in November.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2024-trump-minnesota-4f7ebfe7a2e1949d38a7c9894616a985?

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🗳️ Empty studio for CNN debate

Image: CNN CNN announced that during its Biden-Trump debate in Atlanta on Thursday, June 27 (40 days from now!): "To ensure candidates may maximize the time allotted in the debate, no audience will be present." Why it matters: No peanut gallery was a major demand of Biden advisers. They believe an empty TV studio will "deprive their GOP rival of a major advantage," Politico reports, since Trump supporters laughed, roared and jeered at last year's CNN town hall in New Hampshire. The empty studio also precludes protesters. 📺 You'll be able to watch free: CNN said the debate, moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will "stream without a cable login on CNN.com. CNN will make the debate available to simulcast on additional broadcast and cable news networks in the United States." Each of the two debates between Biden and Trump in 2020 were carried by at least 16 networks, according to Nielsen. The first debate was seen by 73 million viewers, the second by 63 million. (AP) ABC said on Wednesday when announcing the other debate President Biden and former President Trump have agreed to: "ABC News will make the debate available to simulcast on additional broadcast and streaming news networks." ABC's debate is Tuesday, Sept. 10, moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis.

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Jesus is their savior, Trump is their candidate. Ex-president’s backers say he shares faith, values

As Donald Trump increasingly infuses his campaign with Christian imagery and rhetoric while coasting to a third Republican presidential nomination, his support is as strong as ever among evangelicals and other conservative Christians. Read more. ps:Seriously??????????

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Biden's fellow poll doubters

Democratic senators who represent presidential battlegrounds agree with President Biden — polls showing him trailing former President Trump in those key states are wrong.

Why it matters: The skepticism is especially notable because a number of Democrats from those states have a polling lead over their Republican opponents in pivotal Senate races.

• Retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told Axios, "I do not think that they are accurate" when asked about the polls. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has been leading in early Michigan Senate polls, even as Biden trails Trump.
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told Axios: "The polls showed that I was down when I entered my race. And polls didn't look that great for Angela Alsobrooks a couple weeks ago."
• Sen. Bob Casey (D-Penn.) told Axios: "It's early ... every candidate, whether it's the president or me — we have to work every day to earn people's votes."

The big picture: After Trump's 2016 expectation-defying win, pollsters and strategists made adjustments aimed at better capturing Trump supporters.

• Democrats say the polls are missing key voter dynamics on their side.
• "There are certain communities that are missed," added Warnock, who narrowly ousted Republican Kelly Loeffler in a 2021 runoff.

Zoom in: Biden is campaigning in swing states where polls show he needs to make up ground.

• He delivered today's commencement address at the historically Black Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia, and is speaking at a large NAACP dinner in Detroit, Michigan tonight.
• He was in Wisconsin last week and has visited his birth state of Pennsylvania at least seven times this year, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) also told Axios elections in his state are always going to be close, but he predicted Biden would win. He added that he would like to see Biden and Vice President Harris visit Arizona more.

Read more here

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Biden at Morehouse

By Sareen Habeshian

President Biden speaks at the Morehouse College Commencement. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

President Biden's commencement address today at Morehouse College faced few disruptions from those assembled. Protests were ongoing outside the graduation site, with barricades manned by the Atlanta Police. Morehouse President David Thomas told CNN Thursday that "disruptive behavior that prevents the ceremony or services" would not be allowed. Zoom in: But some students among the graduating class turned their chairs away from Biden as he began his speech, while at least one student held up a Palestinian flag. A chant of "four more years" was heard from a section reserved for the families of graduating students as Biden arrived on stage, according to CNN. Go deeper.

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Trump's "Unified Reich" blunder

A frame from the video with the "Unified Reich" headline. Photo: Chris Delmas/AFP via Getty Images

The Biden campaign is hammering former President Trump for reposting a video that referred to "the creation of a unified Reich" — a term associated with Nazi Germany — if he's elected in November. A Trump campaign spokesperson said the now-deleted video was "created by a random account online and reposted by a staffer who clearly did not see the word." Why it matters: Trump has been accused of echoing the language of dictators and fascists throughout the 2024 campaign. President Biden has made it his mission to convince voters that Trump is a threat to democracy. "It is abhorrent, sickening, and disgraceful for anyone to promote content associated with Germany's Nazi government under Adolf Hitler," White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates said in a statement. Screenshot via MSNBC The big picture: This is far from the first time Trump has been forced on the defensive over allegations of antisemitism or authoritarian rhetoric. Days after declaring his candidacy in November 2022, Trump dined at Mar-a-Lago with white nationalist Nick Fuentes and rapper Ye, who has frequently promoted antisemitic conspiracy theories. Last November, Trump pledged in a speech to "root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical-left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country." The following month, Trump said undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," drawing comparisons to Hitler's words.

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👀 Trump's cleanup day

The Trump campaign spent today in cleanup mode over a pair of public messes.

Why it matters: Most campaigns would dread the idea of ever posting a video with imagery associated with Nazi Germany, or the candidate telling local news he'd consider restricting contraception.

• In the Trump campaign, they happened within hours of each other.

Zoom in: Trump told a Pittsburgh TV station that he will be releasing a policy on contraceptives "within a week or so."

• "Things really do have a lot to do with the states and some states are going to have different policies than others," Trump said, when asked if he supports some restrictions.
• Trump later wrote he would "never advocate imposing restrictions on birth control."

His campaign also spent the day under fire from the Biden campaign over a now-deleted video on Trump's Truth Social account that referenced a "unified Reich."

• "Reich" is typically associated with Nazi Germany — which dubbed itself the Third Reich.
• "That's Hitler's language, not America's," President Biden said in a video response.
• A Trump campaign spokesperson said the video was "created by a random account online and reposted by a staffer who clearly did not see the word."

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🗳️ Scoop: Dems target Trump VPs

The DNC is launching a "Trump's MAGA Veepstakes" project to paint all of former President Trump's VP contenders as extremist backers of an "ultra-MAGA" policy agenda, Axios' Sophia Cai writes. Why it matters: Dozens of potential veep picks are doing their best to distinguish themselves. But Democrats plan to lump them together as "all the same," DNC officials tell Axios. The DNC plans to zoom in on four issues where they expect Trump's eventual running mate to have vulnerabilities: Election denial: Refusing to certify the results if they were VP. Abortion: Applauding Trump's role in overturning Roe v. Wade and supporting a national abortion ban. Health care: Supporting repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Working families: Tax cuts for billionaires and cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Axios: "The DNC and their media defenders will stop at nothing to gaslight the American people into believing their lies and forgetting their disastrous record." Keep reading.

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Trump’s vow to only be a dictator on ‘day one’ follows growing worry over his authoritarian rhetoric

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) — As Donald Trump faces growing scrutiny over his increasingly authoritarian and violent rhetoric, Fox News host Sean Hannity gave his longtime friend a chance to assure the American people that he wouldn’t abuse power or seek retribution if he wins a second term.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritarian-presidential-election-f27e7e9d7c13fabbe3ae7dd7f1235c72

Opinion: Trump’s praise of dictators tells us all we need to know

Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Viktor Orban, Adolf Hitler, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Saddam Hussein: What do they have in common? All of these authoritarians have reportedly drawn praise from former US president — and now GOP presidential nominee — Donald Trump, who has promised Americans that he, too, will be a dictator “on Day One” of his time in office.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/opinions/trump-dictators-putin-xi-erdogan-ben-ghiat/index.html

Why Trump's authoritarian language about 'vermin' matters

At a recent rally, former President Donald Trump used language in a speech that echoed Adolf Hitler, comparing his political opponents to "vermin."

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213746885/trump-vermin-hitler-immigration-authoritarian-republican-primary

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Haley boosts Trump

In her first public remarks since suspending her presidential campaign, Nikki Haley gave a big boost to former President Trump in his efforts to unify the GOP.

• "I will be voting for Trump," she said at the Hudson Institute.

Why it matters: Haley keeps drawing about 20% in GOP primaries long after she left the race.

• She also drew double-digit vote shares in key suburban counties in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia.

Haley said Trump has not been "perfect" on a number of policies, but President Biden has been a "catastrophe."

• "Having said that, I stand by what I said in my suspension speech," the former UN ambassador said.
• "Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me."