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Trump's revenge tour

Former President Trump's post-conviction revenge tour began in earnest today with a 33-minute tirade at Trump Tower, just steps away from the golden escalator he famously descended for his 2016 campaign launch.

  • Why it matters: Cable news and broadcast channels broke into their daytime programming to stream the news conference, a day after millions of Americans tuned in to hear the historic verdict read live on television.

Some networks chose to cut away as Trump unleashed a series of falsehoods and attacks on the judge, prosecutors and President Biden.

  • "You saw what happened to some of the witnesses that were on our side: They were literally crucified by this man who looks like an angel, but he is really a devil," Trump said of Judge Juan Merchan.
  • Trump vowed to appeal the verdict, casting his fight as existential for the Constitution and the country: "This is bigger than Trump. This is bigger than me."

On Capitol Hill, Trump's allies have quickly mobilized in his defense.

  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) urged the U.S. Supreme Court to "step in" to overturn the verdict, saying he knows some of the justices "personally" and believes they are "deeply concerned."
  • House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is calling for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to testify on June 13.
  • Eight Senate Republicans vowed to oppose any non-defense spending bills, block Biden's political and judicial appointees, and slow passage of Democratic legislation.

💰 Stunning stat: Trump's campaign claimed it raised $34.8 million after yesterday's verdict, shattering online fundraising records for Republicans.

  • Trump's announcement said 30% of yesterday's donors were new to WinRed, the GOP's leading online fundraising platform.

Go deeper.

Biden breaks silence

President Biden briefly addressed Trump's conviction ahead of a major speech laying out Israel's plan to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of the hostages.

  • "The American principle that no one is above the law was reaffirmed," Biden said, noting that Trump should be given the opportunity to appeal his conviction.

He then shifted tone, warning: "It's reckless, it's dangerous, it's irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don't like the verdict."

  • "Our justice system should be respected, and we should never allow anyone to tear it down. It's as simple as that."

Watch the remarks ... Biden's Gaza plan.

Biden goes all-in

After holding its fire for a day, the Biden campaign blasted Donald Trump as a "convicted felon," Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson report.

  • Why it matters: The broadside, in a press release chiding Trump for his "unhinged" rant earlier in the day, put President Biden in the same camp as many Democrats who are now mocking the ex-president.

🔎 Behind the scenes: Throughout the day, Biden advisers and Democratic strategists on congressional campaigns said they wanted to know more about how Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts is playing with voters before launching a full-throated attack.

  • But by the evening, Biden's campaign apparently had made the call. Its press release — clearly designed to get under Trump's skin — listed "34 Lowlights from Convicted Felon Donald Trump's" speech.

📊 By the numbers: A Morning Consult poll out this morning — one of the first polls since Trump's conviction — finds 49% of independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction.

  • 54% of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of the guilty verdict compared to 34% who "strongly or "somewhat" disapprove.

More on the poll.

📱 Trump's instant video

It took less than three hours for the Trump campaign to turn this moment — as President Biden left the State Dining Room yesterday after speaking on the Middle East — into a campaign video.

  • At 1:42 p.m., NBC's Kelly O'Donnell shouted as Biden walked out: "Mr. President, can you tell us, sir: Donald Trump refers to himself as a political prisoner and blames you directly. What's your response to that, sir?"

Biden didn't say anything, but turned to the press pool and made this face.

  • An in-house Trump campaign team added horror music, and put the video in slow-mo.
  • At 4:21 p.m., campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita tweeted the video and labeled it "The face of corruption" — a phrase you'll hear again.

🥊 Reality check: Despite what former President Trump and GOP officials keep saying, he was convicted in a New York State court that Biden has nothing to do with.

👀 What we're watching: Mike asked a Trump official if the campaign might use the video as a paid ad.

  • "We might," the official said with a chuckle. "Because we're gonna raise a lotta money off it."

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🍨 Scoop: Rand Paul's tension with Trump

The tension between Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Trump's team has been rising, as Paul has questioned Trump's commitment to cut spending.

  • Paul is among a dwindling number of Republicans who've refused to publicly back the former president as the GOP's 2024 nominee.
  • And those in Trump's orbit are getting antsy about it.
  • "There's a growing sentiment in Trumpworld that Rand can't be trusted, and it's a great disappointment," Trump ally and consultant Alex Bruesewitz told Axios.

🥊 Paul questioned Trump's spending plans during a heated exchange with top Trump ally Russell Vought during a closed-door meeting on May 22, Axios has learned.

  • Paul railed at Vought about the Trump administration's massive spending, according to two sources familiar with what was said in the session.
  • Vought urged Republicans to push this year's government funding fight to 2025 — partly to allow a potential Trump administration to slash funding.

🤔 The intrigue: Paul also has a budding relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — whose independent run for president has garnered significant support, prompting the Biden and Trump campaigns to attack.

Read more.

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🗳️ Trump's new play for Black voters

Biden and Trump are making a point of courting Black voters, but since he was convicted Thursday, Trump's campaign has touted a particularly provocative pitch.

  • He and surrogates have launched an aggressive appeal to Black men, trying to link Trump's claims that he's a victim of a corrupt justice system to similar feelings in Black communities.

It's the latest example of using bad legal news to feed his familiar theme that he's a victim of political persecution.

  • In this case, Trump — long known for racially incendiary comments about African Americans and Latinos — is trying to show a common bond with Black voters, particularly men.
  • "The reason we're seeing so many African Americans come into the Trump campaign — two big things: jobs and justice," Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) told CNN on Friday.

Biden and other Democrats have ridiculed the strategy. The president told Black voters in Philadelphia last week that Trump is "pandering and peddling lies and stereotypes for your vote so he can win for himself, not for you."

Read more.

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📈 Trump's donation bonanza
Line chart showing daily visits to winred.com, actblue.com, donaldjtrump.com, and joebiden.com. Winred saw a big leap in daily visits after Trump was convicted on May 30, 2024. The other three saw small jumps in visits as well, but none near the 3 million visits to winred.com.
Data: Similarweb. Chart: Axios Visuals

Traffic to the Republican fundraising platform WinRed skyrocketed in the wake of Donald Trump's historic conviction last week, Axios' Sara Fischer and Alex Thompson write.

  • Why it matters: The data shows how much Trump's guilty verdict is helping the former president raise cash, as the Biden campaign struggles to take advantage of the situation.

Zoom in: Daily visits to WinRed's website surged 4x the day of Trump's conviction and 6x the following day, according to media measurement company SimilarWeb.

  • Trump's fundraising page on WinRed temporarily crashed right after the conviction.
  • Traffic to ActBlue, the Democrats' fundraising platform, saw a marginal increase of 1.5x the day of the guilty verdict and 2x the following day.

Go deeper: Trump campaign says conviction drives $141M May haul.

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🗞️ WSJ takes on Biden age

In a 3,000-word story headlined "Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping," The Wall Street Journal reports that in meetings with congressional leaders, President Biden "appears slower" and "has both good moments and bad ones."

  • Why it matters: Biden's age and acuity are among the GOP's top attack lines. Poll after poll shows Biden's age, 81, is a major concern among voters. Trump, who turns 78 next week, isn't far behind.

"I used to meet with him when he was vice president. I'd go to his house," said former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the article's sole on-record critic of Biden's faculties. "He's not the same person."

  • When Biden was negotiating with House Republicans to lift the debt ceiling, "his demeanor and command of the details seemed to shift from one day to the next," the Journal says.

🔎 Behind the scenes: "The White House kept close tabs on some of The Wall Street Journal's interviews with Democratic lawmakers," the story says.

  • "After the offices of several Democrats shared with the White House either a recording of an interview or details about what was asked, some of those lawmakers spoke to the Journal a second time and once again emphasized Biden's strengths."

White House senior deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told Axios: "It's a little surprising that The Wall Street Journal thought it was breaking news when congressional Republicans told them the same false claims they've spouted on Fox News for years."

  • "President Biden inherited an economy in free fall, fraying alliances, and a spiking violent crime rate, and he turned each around with his experience and judgment, delivering the strongest economic growth in the world, making NATO bigger than ever, and forcing violent crime to a near 50-year low."

Free link to Journal opus.

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Biden demands credit
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Covers: TIME

President Biden, in a 90-minute interview with TIME published yesterday, sought more credit for domestic and foreign policy gains.

  • Asked about Russia's proposal to end the war in Ukraine, Biden responded: "y the way, I don't know why you skip over all that's happened in the meantime. The Russian military has been decimated. You don't write about that. It's been freaking decimated. Number one."

🌐 On the foreign stage: Biden said the U.S. and NATO are "considerably stronger" than before he took office.

  • He boasted about organizing military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, and took credit for NATO's recent expansion.

🏗️ When asked about concerns over his age, Biden countered by highlighting the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill passed in 2021.

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🏎️ Catch me up: Trump version

  • ⚖️ There were two "wins" for Trump in separate courts today, both of which significantly reduced the chances he'll face another trial before the Nov. 5 election:
  • In Georgia, an appeals court froze the Fulton County case in which he's accused of leading a conspiracy to overturn Georgia's 2020 election results. A court panel will have a hearing on whether Fulton DA Fani Willis should be disqualified, CNN reported.
  • And in Florida, where Trump faces federal charges related to his handling of classified documents, Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon changed the timing of several hearings on key legal issues, the New York Times reports. Cannon's slow pace of deciding on motions and rescheduling hearings has frustrated prosecutors.
  • 💰 Meanwhile, Trump's Make America Great Again Inc. PAC raised nearly $70 million in May, according to the Times. Trump's campaign said this week he raised $141 million last month, alongside the RNC. The numbers can't be independently verified until the next round of finance reports, but it's a signal Trump's GOP is catching Biden's Democrats in fundraising.

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👀 Trump's short list
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Screenshot: CNN

Former President Trump has requested financial and other documents from eight potential VP picks as he formalizes his vetting, an official tells me (no particular order):

  • Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio)
  • North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
  • Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.)
  • Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.)
  • Ben Carson, former HUD Secretary
  • Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.)
  • Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.)
  • Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.)

🕵️ The intrigue: Some candidates got more extensive paperwork requests than others — a possible clue to how hotly they're being considered.

Between the lines: I'm told the list, reported earlier by Politico and others, is very much subject to change.

Trump's anti-drama VP search
By
 
8 headshots show Trump
Chart: Axios Visuals

Donald Trump is known for controversy and drama, but he wants a vice president who's reliable, low-drama and, above all, loyal.

  • The norm-crushing former president, back campaigning after his felony conviction, wants a no-hassle running mate who might appeal to moderate Republicans left behind by Trump's MAGA machine.
  • If you're thinking that sounds like Mike Pence, Trump's former vice president, you're not wrong.
  • But Pence famously fell out of favor over his refusal to go along with Trump's plan to stop Congress' certification of the 2020 election on Jan. 6, 2021 — making him the focus of death threats from Trump supporters.
  • This time, the VP prospects' shows of loyalty — most recently as supporters at Trump's trial in New York — seemed especially significant.

Trump's campaign has requested financial and other documents from eight contenders:

  • North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum — Trump likes Burgum's measured demeanor and his experience as governor, Axios reported previously, as well as his success in business.
  • Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — Trump's top Senate ally and author of "Hillbilly Elegy" he's been lauded by allies as an articulate voice for populist conservatives. Vance is friends with Donald Trump Jr. and has said he initially wasn't a fan of the elder Trump but became a believer.
  • Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) came up as a traditional Republican under the wing of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and has experience in foreign policy, including working with Trump during his presidency.
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is well liked among his Senate Republican colleagues and a prolific fundraiser. He's worked on legislation with Trump in the past.
  • Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson was a loyal cabinet member who served all of Trump's first term. He was a pediatric neurosurgeon before entering politics.
  • Others being vetted include Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

"Anyone claiming to know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying," Trump senior adviser Brian Hughes told Axios. "Unless the person is named Donald J. Trump."

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Presidential race

 

President Joe Biden is set to present a case for democracy today in a speech at Pointe du Hoc, a clifftop in Normandy, France, stormed by US Army Rangers on D-Day. It is the same spot where Ronald Reagan delivered a speech 40 years ago and issued warnings against isolationism in the face of tyranny. Analysts say Biden will imply that former President Donald Trump — with his "America First" foreign policy, attacks on the integrity of the free and fair 2020 election and use of extreme anti-immigrant rhetoric that echoes that of the Nazis — is summoning the same forces that triggered a global war. Meanwhile, Trump is back on the campaign trail after a guilty verdict was delivered in his criminal hush money case. Trump on Thursday said he will announce his 2024 running mate at the Republican convention next month.

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🚄 Biden's moonlighting secretaries
Illustration of a check stylized as an unfolded map with multiple 3D navigation icons on the check.
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

President Biden is dispatching his Cabinet members to help him sell his three signature legislative accomplishments and raise money in swing states, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.

  • Why it matters: It's one of the advantages of incumbency as Biden tries to harness the prestige and power of the presidency to make his case for a second term — and fund that effort.

The moonlighting secretaries — Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo are particularly active — give donors what many desperately crave: An inside view of how Biden's team plans to prevent Donald Trump from returning to the White House.

👀 The intrigue: The fundraisers also are an opportunity for Buttigieg and Raimondo to get better acquainted with donors who have deep pockets, should the secretaries have their eyes on any future bids for president.

  • Raimondo sticks to the Acela corridor, headlining events in Washington and New York.
  • Buttigieg is crisscrossing the country, with face-to-face donor events in Las Vegas, Seattle, St. Petersburg, Fla., Miami, Kansas City and Dallas.

Keep reading.

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Biden boost

After months of brutal polls, President Biden has at least some cause for optimism.

  • Why it matters: Swing-state polls had shown former President Trump heading for nearly a clean sweep. But there's early evidence the race tightened after Trump's guilty verdict, Axios' Dave Lawler reports.

📊 By the numbers: Five national polls conducted after the verdict showed the race unchanged, or moving slightly in Biden's direction.

  • The New York Times/Siena College poll recontacted registered voters who'd taken part in surveys in April and May, and found the national race moving from Trump up 3 to Trump up 1. (The Times says that since a recontacting study isn't necessarily representative of the entire electorate, it's impossible to calculate a margin of error.)
  • Most Republicans are standing by their man. But 10% of Republicans, and 25% of independents, in a Reuters/Ipsos poll are now less likely to vote for Trump.

🎨 The big picture: The Washington Post calls the polling consensus a "little but pretty evident shift toward Biden."

  • While some Trump allies predicted the hush money case would rally Americans to his side, at least half of U.S. adults in multiple polls thought the verdict was correct.

🥊 Reality check: It's way too early to know how Trump's legal troubles will ultimately affect the race. The most conclusive finding from the post-conviction polls: For the vast majority of voters, nothing has changed.

The bottom line: Biden's position in polls is much weaker than this time four years ago. But he has a narrow, credible path to victory.

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RFK Jr. to appear on FL presidential ballot after Reform Party gets recertified

The Reform Party has regained ballot status in Florida, meaning that its presidential nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., will appear on the November ballot in the Sunshine State.

https://floridaphoenix.com/briefs/rfk-jr-to-appear-on-fl-presidential-ballot-after-reform-party-gets-recertified/?

Shock poll? New Fox News survey has Trump over Biden by just 4 points in Florida

Despite a claim by the Joe Biden campaign earlier this year that “Florida is in play,” there’s been little indication so far in 2024 that the Sunshine State won’t go for Donald Trump for a third presidential election.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/07/shock-poll-new-fox-news-survey-has-trump-over-biden-by-just-4-points-in-florida/?

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Teamsters President Asks for Speaking Slot at Both Parties’ Conventions

The president of the Teamsters union has asked for speaking slots at both the Republican and Democratic national conventions, at a time when President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump have pressed for support from rank-and-file members of organized labor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/us/politics/teamsters-president-conventions.html?

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Trump's muted abortion message

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — Former President Trump on Monday told a Christian group that has vowed to "eradicate" abortion that if he's re-elected, "you're going to make a comeback like no other group."

  • That was about as bold as Trump got, however — his comments to the pastors and churchgoers of the Danbury Institute were brief, pre-taped and did not include the word "abortion."
  • It was the latest sign that Trump — who has bragged about appointing three conservative Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade — seems to have lowered the volume when talking about abortion.
  • Many GOP candidates are doing that this year, after several post-Roe elections in which voters have rewarded Democrats who back abortion rights.

🤔 On Monday, Trump didn't even take credit for overturning Roe, saying simply, "We've done things that nobody thought were possible to have gotten done."

  • His remarks — in which he mentioned "protecting innocent life" just once — contrasted with those of other speakers who urged state legislators to "punish evil (abortion)" and "abolish abortion completely."

📺 Trump's message reflected his strategy of appearing by video or calling into events to show support for groups with fringe positions — without appearing publicly with their leaders.

Go deeper.

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💰 Pitching big business
Illustration of a podium with a slot extruding twenty dollar bills
 

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

 

The Biden and Trump camps will engage in a long-distance economic showdown on Thursday as both sides try to sell corporate America on their vision for 2025 and beyond, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

  • Why it matters: Corporate America is bracing for a big tax fight in 2025, when some Trump tax cuts expire.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will defend President Biden's approach at the Economic Club of New York, where she'll argue that tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation for big business aren't the best ways to grow the economy.

  • That same day, former President Trump will make his case to executives at the Business Roundtable in Washington.

🗳️ Zoom in: Yellen could have a difficult task.

  • Biden has pumped billions of public dollars into some industries. But he also has accused corporations of exacerbating inflation and "ripping people off" with "greedflation" and "shrinkflation."
  • It's led to some Wall Street titans and Trump-skeptic tycoons to warm to the former president.

Trump has made his criticism of President Biden's economy a cornerstone of his campaign, blaming him for record-high inflation and new mandates for electric vehicles.

  • The former president also has promised another round of across-the-board tax cuts — including for the business community, which saw its corporate rate drop from 35% to 21% in Trump's first term.

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538's first '24 forecast: Toss-up
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Graphic Courtesy of 538

The first '24 forecast by 538, the data journalism organization owned by ABC News, shows President Biden winning just over half the time, in 53 of 100 simulations.

  • Trump won 47 times out of 100.

🔨 Breaking it down: The forecast is based on a combination of polls — which slightly favor former President Trump at this stage — and other factors like economic conditions and the incumbency advantage that could tilt the race toward Biden.

  • In most scenarios, 538's model expects Biden to win the popular vote.
A map shows the swing states that may decide the 2024 presidential election. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia are highlighted in purple.
Data: Cook Political Report. Map: Axios Visuals

But the race will be decided in six or seven swing states where Trump was holding slight leads in the most recent polls, before his conviction.

  • National polls moved a hair in Biden's direction following the verdict.

Go deeper ... Full 538 methodology.

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Trump's D.C. plot

💥 Former President Trump is set to return to Capitol Hill on Thursday for the first time since leaving office, with plans for strategy sessions with House and Senate Republicans about the upcoming election and his 2025 agenda.

  • The meetings are part of a push to boost GOP ranks in Congress and help Trump get a jump on his policy agenda should he win back the White House in November.

🏃‍♂️ Trump already is plotting with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to hit the ground running with an agenda that includes tax cuts and rolling back Biden energy policies.

  • He also wants to overhaul agencies such as the Justice Department, Department of Homeland Security and FBI, make it easier to fire civil servants and dramatically increase the president's powers to act unilaterally.

The presumptive GOP nominee will meet Thursday morning with the House Republican Conference at the Capitol Hill Club, a GOP clubhouse a block from the Capitol, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender reported.

  • Trump and GOP lawmakers will "discuss growing the House Republican majority and the 2025 legislative agenda," a Johnson spokesman told Axios.
  • The former president, who will be in Washington for a Business Roundtable event, also plans to huddle with Senate Republicans midday Thursday to discuss a "strategic governing agenda in 2025," Axios' Stef W. Kight reported.

🤔 The intrigue: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has had a tumultuous relationship with the ex-president, will attend Thursday's session in that chamber.

  • The two haven't spoken since December 2020, shortly before Trump supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

The other side: Democrats, meanwhile, are mobilizing to counter Republican policy in a potential second Trump presidency.

  • House Democrats led by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) today launched a task force aimed at countering Project 2025, a policy roadmap put forward by the conservative Heritage Foundation.

Read more.

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🔮 Early forecast: Biden-Trump is a toss-up
 
Illustration of polling, voting, and chart symbols on a grid
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Five months before Election Day, the race for the White House is very much a toss-up, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.

  • 538's first election forecast of the 2024 cycle has President Biden winning slightly more than half the time, in 53 of 100 simulations of how the state electoral count might turn out.

🔨 Breaking it down: The forecast is based on a combination of polls — which slightly favor Trump at this stage — and other factors such as economic conditions and the incumbency advantage that could tilt the race toward Biden.

  • In most scenarios, 538's model expects Biden to beat Trump in the popular vote. In fact, it expects him to gain about 3 percentage points nationally between now and November.
  • But the race will be decided in six or seven swing states where Trump has been holding slight leads in the polls. That makes the election very close.

📈 The national polls moved a click in Biden's direction after Trump's conviction.

  • Keep in mind that election forecasts, particularly this early, don't always pan out — and Trump in particular has overperformed pre-election forecasts.
  • In 2016, for example, 538's June forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 66% chance of beating Trump. And in 2020, many forecasts overestimated what Biden's margin over Trump would be.

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🗳️ Scoop: Trump's CEO wing man
Illustration of a microphone wearing a big red tie
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

When former President Trump auditions tomorrow before about 90 top CEOs at the Business Roundtable in Washington, he'll have a friendly face to try to keep him on track:

  • Larry Kudlow — who was Trump's chief economic adviser in the White House, and now touts his former boss on his Fox Business show — will interview Trump at the off-the-record event.

Why it matters: Trump allies hope Kudlow can keep Trump focused on the economy. If he seems palatable, it could make a big impression on the CEOs, some of whom complain that President Biden vilifies business.

White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients will speak at the same meeting on behalf of Biden, who leaves today for the G7 Summit in Italy.

  • Zients will be moderated by a CEO.
  • The BRT has a practice of inviting both presumptive nominees to its June CEO Quarterly Meeting.

Between the lines: Some Democrats think Trump should be grilled by a neutral interlocutor.

  • A source familiar with Trump's interview remarks tells me he's likely to focus on his plan "to immediately reduce inflation and roll back anti-business Biden regulations."

🔮 New forecast: A model out this morning from The Economist gives Trump a 2-in-3 chance of winning, and Biden a 1-in-3 chance of re-election (34%).

  • Four years ago this week, the model gave Biden an 83% chance.

How it works: "Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election," The Economist says.

🥊 Reality check: A 538 forecast out yesterday called the race tied (Biden wins 52 times in 100 simulations; Trump wins 48 in 100 simulations).

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🗞️ Fake news outlets outnumber real outlets
A scatter plot of States with the most dark money or misleading local news sites vs. their 2020 presidential vote margin. Most states have between 5-20 of these sites, but a group of key swing states including Georgia, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hold an outsized proportion of these sites, between 40 and 70.
Data: NewsGuard. Chart: Will Chase/Axios

The number of partisan-backed outlets designed to look like impartial news outlets has officially surpassed the number of real, local daily newspapers in the U.S., Axios' Sara Fischer writes from a new report by NewsGuard.

  • Why it matters: Many of those sites are targeted to swing states (charted above) — a clear sign that they're designed to influence politics.

🧮 By the numbers: At least 1,265 websites are being backed by dark money or intentionally masquerading as local news sites for political purposes, according to NewsGuard, a misinformation tracking site.

  • As of last year, there were 1,213 daily local newspapers in the U.S.
  • Nearly half (45%) of the sites observed as part of the study were targeted to communities or regions in swing states, according to an Axios analysis.

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🌐 Where Biden's winning
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President Biden is in a dead heat in polls at home. But he's smoking Donald Trump abroad, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

  • Why it matters: In pretty much every country, people said they have far more confidence in Biden than Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs.

Biden averaged a 15-point advantage across the 34 nations polled by Pew, with huge differences in European countries.

  • His ratings fell in two-thirds of the countries where data from last year is available — and he got negative reviews for his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

🇮🇱 The intrigue: Biden and Trump are statistically tied among Israelis.

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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Trump's youth steal
A line chart in blue and red shows the vote share in presidential elections among voters aged 18 to 29 since the 1972 election. Young voters have pretty consistently voted more for Democrats since 1976, with a notable exception in 1984, when Reagan won in a landslide. The gap has been widening since 2000, peaking in 2008 with Obama
Data: New York Times, CNN, 2024 New York Times/Siena Poll. Chart: Axios Visuals

Former President Trump appears to be making stunning inroads with young voters as he stakes out youth-friendly positions that defy GOP orthodoxy and contradict past statements, Axios' Neal Rothschild writes.

  • Why it matters: The prospect of Trump coming within striking distance of winning young voters — which shows up in poll after poll — would have seemed unthinkable at the outset of the cycle.

The latest New York Times/Siena College polling of likely voters has President Biden with just a 2-point lead over Trump.

  • A recent Quinnipiac University survey shows Trump ahead by a point among registered voters between 18 and 34.
  • Exit polling showed Biden won the 18- to 29-year-old vote by 24 points in 2020. Hillary Clinton won it by 19 points in 2016.

🥊 Reality check: The polls could be wrong. Polling younger voters has become more difficult in recent years as answering landlines — a traditional method of polling outreach — is an archaic practice for today's youth.

🔎 Zoom in: Trump is staking out policies that cater to the preferences of younger voters, even as they don't map neatly to the conservative consensus.

1. After proposing a TikTok ban during his presidency, Trump baffled conservative China hawks by coming out against such a move earlier this year.

  • The electoral upside of that stance is clear: TikTok is popular among younger users. Support for a ban grows as the age of respondents increases.

2. Trump has hugged the cryptocurrency world, which is most frequently embraced by young men.

  • He boosted NFTs, vowed to end regulatory hostility and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin to help America become "energy dominant."

3. Trump singled out a new constituency this week by vowing to get rid of tip taxation.

  • The comments, made at a Las Vegas rally, may have been targeted at career service-industry workers — and Latinos in particular. But young restaurant and bar workers nationwide might take notice.

💡 The bottom line: Any massive movement of young voters to the right could be a once-in-a-generation victory for Republicans.

  • The vote hasn't been close since Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 2 points in 2000. No Republican has won young Americans since 1988.

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60

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