Candidates for President in 2024

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Biden's health

 

President Joe Biden will face a major test today when he holds an unscripted news conference at the NATO summit in Washington, DC. It comes after his poor debate performance left an indelible impression on many voters who are seriously questioning the president's mental fitness for another term. Some Democratic donors are also holding back big checks as the party continues to wrestle with the path forward. On Wednesday, actor George Clooney, who had been among Biden's biggest supporters and donors in Hollywood, took the step of publicly calling for him to bow out of the race. "We are not going to win in November with this president," Clooney wrote in a New York Times opinion piece, adding that some lawmakers he has spoken with privately shared this view. Clooney said the country deserves to hear from other politicians who could potentially replace Biden at the top of the ticket.

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Biden says during news conference he’s going to ‘complete the job’ despite calls to bow out

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden used his closely watched news conference Thursday to deliver a forceful defense of his foreign and domestic policies and batted away questions about his ability to serve another four years, declaring: “I’m not in this for my legacy. I’m in this to complete the job.”

https://apnews.com/article/biden-president-trump-election-2024-democrats-9e1781a17b3313f525ef70f8a00c310a?

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Trump wants Black and Latino support. But he’s not popular with either group, poll analysis shows

WASHINGTON (AP) — As he prepares to accept the Republican nomination for the third time, Donald Trump has promised new efforts to expand his coalition — and, in particular, to win over more of the nonwhite voters who largely rejected him during the 2020 election.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-black-hispanic-americans-voters-of-color-59acadcda6cf9cb1082d4bdd9d4c4a81?

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Biden's "see me" tour

Just as President Biden got done telling reporters he's not going anywhere, another Democratic congressman publicly pleaded with him to quit the race.

Why it matters: Biden will only reconsider his decision to stay in the race if his staff shows him evidence that he can't win, he said tonight.

• That's even if there's data showing Vice President Kamala Harris faring better in polls against former President Trump, Biden said.
• The president said he made a "stupid mistake" in the debate that followed a busy schedule, and claimed he'll do better at pacing himself.
• He added there's "no indication" yet that he's slowing down or can't get the job done.

The big picture: Biden acknowledged the pressure to move past the debate, saying "it's important I allay fears by letting them see me out there."

• The president will attend a rally tomorrow in Detroit, then face NBC News anchor Lester Holt in an interview on Monday.

Between the lines: In some moments tonight, Biden flexed his foreign policy passion and know-how on Israel, China and Russia.

• But before the press conference, he mistakenly called the president of a U.S. ally by the name of the strongman who invaded their country — and toward the start of his appearance in front of reporters, he flubbed the name of his own vice president by referring to Harris as "Vice President Trump."

What's next: Democrats told Axios ahead of the press conference that they expected a "deluge" of defections, Axios' Andrew Solender reported earlier today.

• A statement from Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) hit inboxes almost as soon as the press conference was over, saying it was time for Biden to step aside.

Calls from inside the house

By Zachary Basu

A chorus of damaging new leaks about President Biden suggest that parts of his inner circle have been compromised by the same deep-seated anxieties roiling the Democratic Party. Why it matters: The intense leaks are typically the product of a demoralized staff. Data: Pew Research; Chart: Axios Visuals Driving the news: A small group of longtime Biden aides and advisers have in recent days discussed how to convince the president that he must drop out of the race, the New York Times reported, citing three people briefed on the matter. Spokespeople for the White House and the Biden campaign vehemently denied the reporting. Separately, NBC News reported that some of Biden's closest allies, including three people directly involved in his re-election effort, now believe he has no chance of winning. The Biden campaign is quietly conducting a survey this week assessing Harris' polling strength against former President Trump, the N.Y. Times also reported today. The other side: Biden's campaign conceded in an internal memo today that the polling "movement" since the debate is "real" but argued it does not represent "a sea-change in the state of the race."

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Florida swing voters open to Harris

Florida swing voters are open to Harris as the Democratic nominee, even though they had some doubts about her, according to our latest focus group with Engagious/Sago.

Why it matters: Some of the voters' willingness to accept Harris as the nominee underscores the degree to which they have concerns about President Biden. 

• While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
• The Florida focus group of 13 voters — who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 — included five Democrats, three Republicans and five independents.

Driving the news: Nine participants said they would vote for Harris if she became the Democratic presidential nominee in a six-way race with Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein and Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver.

• Six said they would vote for Biden if he were the Democratic nominee in a six-way race.

Go deeper

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Committee to Unelect the President

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios; Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

President Biden beat back the initial public campaign by Democrats to oust him from the party's presidential ticket, swiftly and decisively. But very-connected Democrats, mostly veterans of the Obama and Clinton administrations, are plotting hourly to get him to withdraw, Jim and Mike write. They're commissioning polls, lobbying former presidents, back-channeling Democratic leaders, organizing donors and taking the fight to Biden in a very public way. They're the unofficial Committee to Unelect the President. The mission: Push Biden out of the presidential race — the sooner, the better. Why it matters: This loose anti-Biden network is growing by the day — and is circulating polls showing Democrats would shoot from sure losers to big winners with a new ticket. Some donors are talking of a massive financial commitment to any non-Biden presidential ticket. These Democrats see the race in stark, black-and-white terms: Just three states matter — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That's the Blue Wall, all of which Biden won in 2020. And they see an obvious solution: Forget the niceties of backing Biden or even Vice President Harris. Be ruthless about finding the two people most likely to win those three states. 💡 How it works: The anti-Biden Democrats are trading texts, emails and polling, fighting fellow Democrats on TV and X, and circulating stories and arguments by sympathetic journalists and columnists, including Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias. Many are in conversation with lawmakers to push their leaders to squeeze Biden and his inner circle. They know Biden and his family seem unmovable — so they hope for the use of overwhelming force by the Obamas + Clintons + Schumer + Jeffries + Pelosi. Members of this notional committee tell us there's no hidden hand — no command and control. Instead, these are all people who've worked together on past campaigns. "No one is more than one person away from everyone else," a central player told us. And almost all are one step away from former presidents Obama or Clinton. ⚜️ James Carville, who helped propel Bill Clinton into the Oval Office, told us Clinton and Obama are sending a clear message by vanishing after they tweeted support for Biden the day after the debate. "Silence is a very loud form of speech," Carville said. "No one is saying 'come hell or high water.'" Obama has spoken privately with former Speaker Pelosi over their "concerns" about Biden's viability, CNN reports. 🥊 Reality check: No one's sure the pressure campaign is working. It all depends on Biden, who controls the party's delegates and cannot be defeated for the nomination if he stays in — no matter how bleak the outlook for November. "You need a psychiatrist more than a spin doctor," a veteran operative told me. Column continues below.   🔎 Part 2: "Freaking the hell out" A "fatalism" and "sense of resignation" grip the party from coast to coast, Jim and Mike write. "The Clinton diaspora is freaking the hell out," said one alumnus of Clinton's White House. "But all these people going on the record aren't helping. All it seems to have done is cause the Bidens to dig in deeper." In what one operative called a "donor strike," top party benefactors — who don't want to be named, because they know a donor-led revolt would backfire — are moving money away from Biden, and into House and Senate campaigns as a hedge against a victory by former President Trump. The committee includes: Former Obama aides: The strained relationship between Obama and Biden extends to their former aides, including David Axelrod (Obama's ruthlessly pragmatic chief strategist) and the influential "Pod Save America" guys. Biden has reportedly called Axelrod a "prick," and threw shade at him — "Oh! You're kidding" — during Monday's call-in on "Morning Joe." The pod guys — Obama alumni Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor and Dan Pfeiffer — have irritated Biden's camp by arguing for a new candidate. Lovett writes that it's "hard to deny that in the two weeks since the debate, it's the arrogant and small Joe Biden we've seen most." Former Clinton advisers: Carville, appearing all over the cable dial, says unsparingly that a new candidate is inevitable, whether the president admits it or not. Keeping him would be "an idiotic choice for the future of this country," Carville told Anderson Cooper on CNN. Elected Dems: Massive pressure is building from rank-and-file members of the Democratic caucus. One Democratic senator (Peter Welch of Vermont) and 17 House Democrats have publicly called for Biden to drop out. Scores more are furious at the White House for pushing them to support a president they view as unelectable. Swing-seat Dems: This is the group that really matters. Vulnerable Democrats have a clear-eyed view of the president's prospects. These Dems will abandon him — some already have — if they sense their seats are in jeopardy. The donor class: George Clooney, who headlined the largest fundraiser in Democratic Party history last month, is the leading voice of a growing number of Hollywood types who want Biden to end his candidacy. The group includes Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings and Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel (Rahm's brother). Late-night liberals: Stephen Colbert — who moderated a major Biden fundraiser at Radio City in March — strongly suggested the president should step aside: "I think that Biden debated as well as Abraham Lincoln, if you dug him up right now." Jon Stewart has escalated pleas for the nominee to be someone else. He hosted Favreau and Vietor on his podcast yesterday. N.Y. Times Opinion: Debate-night columns by Tom Friedman and Nick Kristoff gave way to full-throated editorials — all saying Biden must go. Biden aides busily leaking: "Some longtime aides and advisers to President Biden," the N.Y. Times reports, "have become increasingly convinced that he will have to step aside from the campaign, and in recent days they have been trying to come up with ways to persuade him that he should." 🔎 Between the lines: Two prominent ex-Biden aides — former White House communications director Kate Bedingfield and press secretary Jen Psaki — have suggested Harris as a promising alternative. Neither specifically called for Biden to step aside. But both have softly criticized the campaign's strategy and said he needs to put forward a coherent path to victory. 📺 What they're saying: Axelrod — who's making the case for Biden's withdrawal two or three times a day as CNN's senior political commentator — told us he aims to be "both realistic and respectful." "President Biden is a historic figure, and a lot of that is gonna be tainted if he persists and loses this race," Axelrod told us. "The people around him have [a collective] hundreds of years of campaign experience. They know how to interpret data. They know how to read the moment. It's just a question of whether their affection for him clouds that." Noah Bressner contributed reporting.   ⏳ Biden buys time With the world watching, President Biden delivered a press conference performance strong enough to buy time from fence-sitting Democrats — but wobbly enough to keep the mutiny armed and dangerous, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: It was the quintessential "two Bidens" performance, fueling both sides of the debate over his fitness for office at a moment when Democrats are desperate for two things: clarity and unity. Closing out the three-day NATO summit, Biden displayed firm command of foreign policy details — framing the threat of a second Trump presidency as a "national security issue." But Biden, 81, also rambled and was incoherent at times, reinforcing Democrats' concerns that flared after his terrible debate two weeks ago. 5 takeaways Polling denial: Biden argued that "all the polling data right now is premature because the campaign hasn't really started." The president said he would consider withdrawing from the race only if his advisers told him there was "no way" he could win — before whispering with a wry smile: "No one's saying that. No poll says that." "Bridge candidate" no more: Asked what has changed since he referred to himself as a "bridge" to a new generation of leaders in 2020, Biden cited "the gravity of the situation" he inherited in terms of the economy, foreign policy and "domestic division." Gaffes fuel groans: Biden drew audible sighs when he referred to Vice President Harris as "Vice President Trump" in his first unscripted answer. Hours earlier, Biden had set off a similar reaction among NATO leaders when he introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as "President Putin" — before quickly correcting the flub. "Pacing" and blame: Biden disputed reports that he privately has acknowledged needing to go to bed earlier, reframing it as a matter of "pacing" himself each day. He also appeared to blame his staff for his packed schedule. Floodgates crack open: Three House Democrats called on Biden to withdraw after the presser, with more expected to join in the coming days. Today's N.Y. Times lead story (gift link). 👀 What to watch: Biden's team believes he delivered the performance he needed. The campaign hopes that pressure will ease with the RNC kicking off in Milwaukee on Monday. Keep reading.

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Key takeaways from Biden’s news conference Joe Biden faced a test Thursday that he had avoided so far this year — a solo news conference with questions from the White House press corps. The news conference was meant to reassure a disheartened group of Democratic lawmakers, allies and voters that Biden still has the strength and stamina to be president. Read more.

What to know: Biden tried to make the case that what he’s doing matters more than how he talks about it. He praised the just finished NATO summit as elevating America’s standing, drilled down on the easing of inflation, and said he would cap rent growth for tenants in tax-credit programs for low-income housing.   Biden made at least two notable flubs, referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “President Putin” and then calling Kamala Harris “Vice President Trump” when asked about her by a reporter.   There were few fireworks in Biden’s answers. While it didn’t erase the stumbles and blank stares from the debate, it showed that he could engage with reporters’ questions on a range of issues without losing focus.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Biden says pressure on him is driven by elites. Voters paint a more complicated picture   Biden’s challenge: Will he ever satisfy the media’s appetite for questions about his ability?   Zelenskyy says to win the war, US needs to lift limits on striking military targets inside Russia

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🏛️ Biden's "mixed" presser wasn't enough for Capitol Hill

Democrats who were bracing for the worst out of President Biden's press conference at the NATO summit instead saw a passable performance — but it doesn't appear to have calmed Capitol Hill's panic around his candidacy.

Why it matters: The number of lawmakers calling for Biden to end his campaign practically doubled yesterday, with multiple statements coming shortly after the press conference wrapped.

• "We must put forth the strongest candidate possible ... I no longer believe that is Joe Biden," said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.

What happened: Biden suffered several attention-grabbing gaffes that hobbled him from the start on Thursday.

• He referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as "President Putin," before the press conference, and to Vice President Kamala Harris as "Vice President Trump" while answering the first questions.
• One House Democrat told Axios the second slip-up had members "groaning," with others exclaiming in the moment "This is over," and "This is so sad."

Between the lines: By most accounts, the rest of the press conference was tolerable and demonstrated that the 81-year-old president retains a grasp of complex foreign policy issues despite his age.

• The thinking out of Biden world is that the president delivered what congressional Democrats were looking for and then some.
• Substance – not style – should be the word of the day, they believe, while also viewing Biden's upcoming interviews and events in Michigan and Nevada as far more pivotal to his reelection.

Full story

 

Presidential race

 

Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about the future of President Joe Biden's 2024 campaign as a growing list of Democrats look to steer him out of the race. Sources say both the former president and ex-speaker are concerned about how much harder they think it has become for Biden to beat former President Donald Trump — but are not sure what to do. Biden dismissed concerns about his health during a high-stakes solo news conference on Thursday and said he would "keep moving." However, some analysts say it may be too late for Biden to convince many potential voters after his poor debate performance and amid a pattern of public gaffes. On Thursday, Biden mistakenly called Vice President Kamala Harris "Vice President Trump" and also accidentally introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as "President Putin."

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Biden's shrinking inner circle

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Current and former Biden aides are worried that the president is surrounded by a shrinking group of "yes" people who block negative information from getting to him, Axios' Alex Thompson reports. Democrats inside and outside the White House tell Axios they're worried President Biden isn't receiving a 360-degree view of his — and his party's — perilous political situation. 💬 What we're hearing: Biden's recent comments expressing doubts about his poor polling numbers have reinforced some aides' fears that he's not getting complete information. Behind the scenes: The White House now is being run by "the family and staff who are effectively family," according to a person familiar with the West Wing power structure. Those in the tighter inner circle are careful about the tenor of the information they put in front of Biden and shy away from telling him things that could be hurtful, current and former Biden aides say. 🤐 No one wants to tell the president the hard truth: that his path to victory is exceedingly narrow, a former administration official said. Go deeper.

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After 235 years, America still isn’t ready for President Kamala Harris

The question burning at the center of American public opinion since the first presidential debate: If President Joe Biden steps down, who will replace him as the Democratic nominee for president of the United States? The most obvious answer appears to be the nation’s second-in-command, Vice President Kamala Harris.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/07/13/after-235-years-america-still-isnt-ready-for-president-kamala-harris/?

Both candidates are old. Only one has shattered presidential norms.

As everyone opined in the aftermath of the Biden-Trump debate, our grandchildren (ages 4 and 5) were arriving to spend the Fourth of July holiday week with us, so we were careful in how we discussed the debate within their earshot. And we were certainly not tuning into TV pundits who, I later learned, spent most of the last week poking fun at old age and excusing rampant lying.

https://kentuckylantern.com/2024/07/09/both-candidates-are-old-only-one-has-shattered-presidential-norms/?

Bookman: If the America I love is going to fall to Trumpism, I want it to go down fighting

Donald Trump ought to be the main issue in this election. He led a conspiracy to overthrow our elected government, he incited political violence on his own behalf and then refused to intervene to stop it, and he has publicly demanded that the U.S. Constitution be “terminated” – his word choice, not mine – so that he, Donald Trump, could be immediately reinstated to power.

https://georgiarecorder.com/2024/07/11/bookman-if-america-i-love-is-going-to-fall-to-trumpism-i-want-it-to-go-down-fighting/?

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The boys vs. girls election

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

In topics, tone and turnout targets, this is the boys vs. girls election, Mike and Jim write in a Behind the Curtain column. Top Trump advisers tell us that when the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee on Monday, the contrast they want pervading social media is ultimately "weak vs. strong." Onstage, it'll be the testosterone party. Why it matters: Rarely has a presidential election been so defined by the gender gap — and masculine vs. feminine framing. It's Donald Trump's chest-beating macho appeals vs. Joe Biden's softer, reproductive-rights-dominated, all-gender inclusivity. Kellyanne Conway — the longtime Republican pollster, and former Trump campaign and White House official — calls it the "new gender gap in American politics: Biden's problem with men." 🔎 The intrigue: What's happening beneath this surface is more even interesting — and telling. A huge, historic gender gap has exploded among young voters. Many Black and Hispanic men have turned against Democrats — and toward Trump. A new analysis this week found 70% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans still have an unfavorable opinion of him. But even tiny gains with either group Nov. 5 would be huge for the GOP. Young women are powering a surge in liberal activism, with abortion rights helping tip elections toward Democrats in the two years since Roe was overturned. Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, referring to the case that overturned Roe, has boiled the election down to "Dobbs and democracy." 🖼️ The big picture: In theory, most of these trends should favor Biden. There are 3 million more women in America than men. And they almost always vote in larger numbers: In 2020, 74% of adult U.S. women said they voted, vs. 71% of men. That split has held true for 40+ years — in every presidential election beginning in 1980, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. There's also a big split in registration: 89 million women told census surveyors they were registered in 2020, vs. 79 million men. (Explore the data.) But in most polls, Trump has led in most of the six big swing states — thanks largely to the swing in men toward Trump. John Della Volpe — Harvard Institute of Politics polling director, and director of Harvard Youth Poll — tells us: "For a new generation of young male voters whose first impression of Donald Trump was almost a decade ago (when they were middle school age), he's an anti-hero sticking it to a system viewed as slow, ineffectual and corrupt." 🎮 "That image has been echoed tens of millions of times through social media, podcasters, in gamer and other communities," Della Volpe says. Column continues below.   🐘 Part 2: Prime time says it all   Data: Gallup. Chart: Axios Visuals Donald Trump was already leading among likely male voters by 12 points before the debate, Mike and Jim write from the N.Y. Times/Siena poll. Trump's lead among men surged to 23 points after Biden's frail performance, with gains "particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees," The Times reports. Biden's five-point lead among likely women voters ticked up to 8 points after the debate. Biden's side points out it's mostly a dead heat, with 115 days left to Election Day. 🥊 What we're watching: The prime-time lineup for next week's GOP convention says it all. Don Jr., the tough-talking trophy hunter, will introduce Trump's running-mate — widely expected to be Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), which would make an all-white-male ticket. Dana White, the macho president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the hottest sport for testosterone-charged fans, will introduce Trump, whose rhetoric and policies shoot right into the bloodstream of his male-dominated base. White, a controversial figure in his own right, apologized last year after being filmed slapping his wife at a nightclub. The "everyday Americans" who've been announced as speakers include typical convention fare (a rancher, a steamfitters union leader, three decorated war heroes) — plus John Nieporte, head golf pro at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, and Carrie Ruiz, golf general manager at Trump National Doral in Miami. Step back: Can you imagine a hunter, a cage-fight promoter and a convicted felon dazzling the DNC? They'd be canceled before they entered the arena. Now, push forward to next month's convention in Chicago, where Democrats plan a softer celebration of diversity and hard attacks on Trump's abortion plans — the one topic many Democrats believe won off-year elections and will again. Why? Women. It moves women voters. The stage will be full of women speakers. And Biden will be trying to get the women watching at home, and on their phones, to do on Nov. 5 what they've done in the past few elections. Trump's first public appearance after his felony convictions (based on hush money to a porn star) was at a UFC fight in Newark, where he and White were greeted by a rip-roaring crowd of mostly young men. The thunderous and carefully choreographed entrance culminated in a viral handshake with UFC commentator Joe Rogan — whose millions of podcast listeners skew 80% male. Not long after, Trump appeared on the popular podcast All-In, co-hosted by four towel-snapping dudes. Tech bros are a rising group of swing voters for Trump. Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

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1 big thing: America, campaign transformed

America is reeling.

• The attempted assassination of Donald Trump, 115 days before Election Day, has ushered in a dark new chapter of political violence — and redefined a campaign already packed with historic firsts, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

Why it matters: On the eve of a Republican National Convention built on themes of victimhood and political persecution, Trump came inches — literally — from martyrdom.

Republicans couldn't ask for more of a contrast, with President Biden spending the last two weeks in a standoff with Democrats who fear he's too feeble to campaign effectively.

• Trump, who said on Truth Social that he felt the bullet "ripping through" his skin, will be welcomed in Milwaukee tomorrow as a hero, a fighter — even, to elements of his evangelical base, a messiah.

The images from the shooting, plastered on front pages around the world this morning, became iconic in real time.

• With blood dripping from his right ear, Trump was captured by photographers pumping a defiant fist to shell-shocked supporters as he was swarmed by Secret Service agents.

"Fight...fight...fight!" the indignant former president appeared to shout as he was shuttled away from the crime scene, where two people, including the shooter, were left dead.

Trump's first dispatch after the shooting, at 8:42 p.m. ET. Via Truth Social

🖼️ The big picture: Despite swift condemnation by Biden and other top Democrats, the assassination attempt will turbocharge the persecution narrative Trump has placed at the center of his campaign.

• "In the end, they're not coming after me. They're coming after you — and I'm just standing in their way," Trump told supporters after his first federal indictment last summer.
• The quote is the main headline on his campaign homepage and is plastered on a wall of Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum, the GOP convention's main hall.

Trump's campaign already has cast this election as existential. The assassination attempt undoubtedly will lead to a surge in donations — especially with the massive spotlight on the RNC this week.

• Trump "will be greeted as a kind of martyr of this event, and I think it could be angrier or it could be more somber," former Obama strategist David Axelrod said on CNN. "But it's certainly not going to be the same."

The Secret Service tends to Trump onstage. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

🔎 Between the lines: Some Democrats have been quick to point out that Trump has used extreme rhetoric and downplayed political violence for years, including the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and the attack on Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband.

• Many Republicans blamed the violence on Biden and his allies, arguing that sustained attacks on Trump as a threat to democracy have created a toxic environment. They pointed to a comment Biden made to donors on July 8: "It's time to put Trump in the bullseye." (AP)
• Both Trump and Biden will now face pressure to dial down the temperature ahead of an election that has transformed the country into a tinderbox.

🔮 What to watch: The biggest electoral impact could come courtesy of low-information and politically disengaged Americans, who are expected to make up a decisive voting bloc.

• The attempted assassination was so shocking that it immediately cut through a wide range of cultural and digital bubbles, drawing reactions from influencers, athletes and CEOs.

Elon Musk immediately endorsed Trump in a post that racked up more than 125 million views on X.

• YouTuber Jake Paul, who has legions of young followers, tweeted: "If it isn't apparent enough who God wants to win. When you try and kill God's angels and saviors of the world it just makes them bigger."

More photos ...

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Biden: "We cannot be like this"

President Biden, speaking on-camera at 8:13 p.m. ET in Rehoboth Beach, Del.: "I have tried to get ahold of Donald. He's with his doctors.  ... [A]pparently he's doing well. I plan on talking to him shortly, I hope, when I get back to the telephone."

• "Look, there is no place in America for this kind of violence. It's sick. It's sick. It's one of the reasons why we have to unite this country. We cannot allow for this to be happening. We cannot be like this. We cannot condone this."
• "[T]he bottom line is that ... the Trump rally was a rally that ... should have been able to ... be conducted peacefully without any problem. ... [E]verybody — everybody must condemn it. Everybody." Transcript.

Via X

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"Getting shot in the face changes a man"

Three images show the moment President Trump realized he'd been injured. Circled in red is what may be the blur of a bullet during the attempted assassination at Saturday's rally in Butler, Pa. Photos: Doug Mills/The New York Times Former President Trump has something rare, precious and definitional: a moment — a fleeting chance to redefine himself, this election, America, Mike and Jim write in a Behind the Curtain column. Why it matters: Almost dying rocks perspectives — and people. Yes, Trump has shown little appetite for changing his ways, tone and words. But his advisers tell us Trump plans to seize his moment by toning down his Trumpiness, and dialing up efforts to unite a tinder-box America, when the Republican convention opens Monday in Milwaukee. "I think it's real," Tucker Carlson — who'll speak in prime time at the convention, and talks to Trump often — told Axios. "Getting shot in the face changes a man." Trump — who landed yesterday in Milwaukee just over 24 hours after the assassination attempt — brought a rare succinctness to a post on his Truth Social platform: "UNITE AMERICA!" It's an echo of former President Ronald Reagan, who projected strength and humor after being shot in 1981. The late David S. Broder, legendary Washington Post political dean, recalled decades later that Reagan "was politically untouchable from that point on. He became a mythic figure." Trump said in an interview yesterday with the Washington Examiner's Salena Zito, a Pittsburgh native who has long covered him, that he's rewriting his Thursday convention speech to take advantage of a historic moment and draw the country together. "The speech ... was going to be a humdinger," Trump told her as he boarded his plane in New Jersey. "Had this not happened, this would've been one of the most incredible speeches," aimed mostly at President Biden. "Honestly, it's going to be a whole different speech now." Zito writes that Trump repeatedly invoked God in their conversations. "It is a chance to bring the country together," Trump told her. "I was given that chance." ✈️ Trump had a loose, large white bandage on his right ear as he flew into Milwaukee aboard his private plane. "The doctor at the hospital said he never saw anything like this — he called it a miracle," Trump told New York Post columnist Michael Goodwin during an airborne interview. "I'm not supposed to be here. I'm supposed to be dead," Trump said. Reality check: He's Trump. He could just become Trump again. Incendiary attacks have flown from him and his allies. He has made Jan. 6 a cornerstone of his campaign, and defended those charged with crimes as "hostages" and "unbelievable patriots." Don Jr., campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a finalist to be Trump's running-mate, attacked Democrats and the media on X in the hours after the shooting. LaCivita deleted a post blaming Trump political opponents for the attack. 🖼️ The big picture: In last night's Oval Office address, Biden talked of "the need for us to lower the temperature." At least rhetorically, these two enemies have aligned on something big. Biden said while unity seems like the most elusive goal in America right now nothing is "more important for us now than standing together." Column continues below.   🔎 Part 2: Behind the scenes   Screenshot: CNN We're told that Trump ordered aides not to allow the convention's prime-time speakers to update their remarks to dial up outrage over the shooting, Mike and Jim write. By contrast, Fox News last night featured prime-time Chyrons like "MEDIA LAYED [sic] GROUNDWORK FOR VIOLENCE AGAINST TRUMP" and "MEDIA BLAMES TRUMP FOR GETTING SHOT." 🔬 Between the lines: Even before Trump began engineering a more unifying convention, Biden allies felt boxed in about how to campaign against him now. At least for the moment, he's a more broadly sympathetic figure, buoyed by his visceral, showman's instinct to pump his fist as he was hauled off the stage. One close adviser, explaining the new convention plans, said Trump's gambit is that now Democrats "can't come after me anymore as a fascist. What're they gonna do now?" The backstory: Trump's friends tell us sitting in court and getting convicted rattled him more than people realized. The possibility of spending his remaining years in prison slapped him straight(er). He was suddenly more open to do whatever it takes to win — even if it meant toning it down in the CNN debate, and going dark in the aftermath, while some Democrats and the media torched Biden. Now Trump has a legitimate moment to change, substantively: He can unify the party. His rival, Nikki Haley, is a late add to the convention, with a speaking slot on Tuesday. So fully unifying the party is plausible, if he and others show grace and class with his Republican skeptics. Imagine if she were named to the ticket or told on stage she would play a prominent role in his administration. As a sign of how bullish Republicans are, an ebullient Trump adviser told us yesterday: "Even the DeSantis people are fired up." He could unify America. Imagine he gave a speech featuring something he rarely shows: humility. Imagine him telling the nation that he has been too rough, too loose, too combative with his language — and now realizes words can have consequences, and promises to tone it down and bring new voices into the White House if he wins. He could box out Democrats. Some of his friends are pushing him to promise RFK Jr. a role in his administration in exchange for an endorsement. If you combine Trump support + RFK support, you have a very different election. He could show a different side of himself. In public, he's all fire and bombast. But his wife, Melania, talked in a statement yesterday of looking "beyond the left and the right, beyond the red and the blue." People who know Trump well say he's a gracious host, inquisitive, loves music and social media. This is the kind of moment when people give leaders a second look, a second chance. Like all moments, this one will pass in a blink. You seize them — or let them waft away.

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📺 Biden to show feisty side

President Biden speaks to the nation last night, as seen from the Colonnade outside the Oval Office. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP President Biden used a short, six-minute Oval Office address last night to ask Americans to "cool it" on divisive political rhetoric, while insisting he would make the case for "our record" in the coming weeks, Axios' Hans Nichols writes. Why it matters: This thread-the-needle goal reflects the huge challenge ahead for Biden's re-election campaign, which has been based partly on attacking Donald Trump as a threat to democracy. Biden will try to satisfy two audiences at once: To a nation shocked by the assassination attempt on Trump, he'll cast himself as a calming force. But to satisfy a Democratic Party still reeling from his debate performance, he'll still try to show a feisty side, touting his record and casting Trump's policies as "backward." He'll try to do it all amid continuing skepticism in his own party, and signs that Trump — long known for attacking anyone in his path — is discussing a post-shooting strategy that emphasizes unity over conflict. 🔎 Zoom in: Behind the Resolute Desk, Biden laid out his plans for political civility and Democratic victory. "I believe politics ought to be an arena for peaceful debate," he said. For all the obvious and intense personal animus between them, both Biden and Trump have struck similar notes during the past 36 hours, calling for national unity and solidarity. 👂 What we're hearing: The attempted assassination of Trump has paused Democrats' public debate about whether Biden is fit to lead the party. Privately, the conversations are raging. Biden has more work to do to convince donors and elected officials that he should be the party's nominee. Donors remain frustrated. Lawmakers are skittish. Delegates are wondering when the party's mysterious virtual roll call of their votes will be held to certify the Democratic nominee. Andrew Solender contributed reporting.

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It's Vance

Former President Trump has selected Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — a onetime critic who is now among Trump's most stalwart defenders in Congress — as his running mate.

• "As Vice President, J.D. will continue to fight for our Constitution, stand with our Troops, and will do everything he can to help me MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

🧐 Between the lines: Trump allies hope Vance, famous for his bestseller "Hillbilly Elegy," could help boost the former president's standing in key Rust Belt states, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

• He rose to the top of the VP shortlist over the past several weeks through enthusiastic fundraising and public appearances — including at Trump rallies — where he has emerged as a staunch defender of MAGA conservatism.
• He's friends with Donald Trump Jr. and was the first VP hopeful to flock to the Manhattan courthouse for Trump's New York criminal trial.

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RFK Jr. to get Secret Service protection after Trump rally shooting

The Biden administration announced Monday that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be given Secret Service protection following the attempted assassination of former President Trump this weekend.

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/15/rfk-jr-secret-service-trump?

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Behind the Curtain: Why J.D.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — picked yesterday as President Trump's running-mate — could potentially extend Trumpism far into the future, leaving the White House as late as 2037 if he were to win twice on his own, Mike (in Milwaukee) and Jim write in a Behind the Curtain column.

• Why it matters: The freshman senator, age 39, instantly becomes the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential race, and was by far the most aggressively Trumpy of the three finalists.

Trump loved the veepstakes drama, and milked it until hours before the Republican convention opened yesterday afternoon in Milwaukee.

• Trump had told friends for several days that it was Vance, and people very close to Trump have been telling us for weeks that every sign pointed to Vance. But Trump is Trump, so no one wanted to go out on a limb and guarantee Vance was the pick.

👀 Behind the scenes: With the race's new dynamics after Saturday's assassination attempt, a secret lobbying campaign continued into yesterday morning, with Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and tech investor David Sacks all calling Trump to try to lock in Vance.

• It wasn't until midday yesterday that the other two runners-up, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), got left at the altar.

🥊 Carlson, who has a prime-time speaking slot at the convention, told us the logic for Vance "is that he doesn't secretly hate Trump, as all the rest of them do. He fundamentally agrees with Trump. That's precisely why neocon donors [who want more aid for Ukraine] fear him."

• Vance also had the most chemistry with Trump, who got to know him after Don Jr. pushed his dad to endorse Vance for Senate in 2022. Trump has genuine affection for Vance — rare for Trump, and a real change from his reasoning for picking Mike Pence in 2016.

Column continues below.

 

🗳️ Part 2: Parking in Pennsylvania

Trumpworld insiders tell us these were key factors in sealing the deal for Vance, Jim and Mike write:

1. Youth & vigor: Vance, who turns 40 in two weeks, is half Trump's age. He looks young, talks young, projects young. Trump advisers see young white, Black, and Hispanic men as rich targets for new voters. Vance, who'd be the first millennial in the White House, will be a key messenger.
2. Smart: Vance can put an intellectual wrapper around Trump's red meat. The guy evolved from Trump-hater to Trump-lover, and has offered long, detailed and historic arguments for Trump's policies. (Prime example: nearly two hours with N.Y. Times' Ross Douthat).
3. American Dream bio: James David Vance grew up in a broken Rust Belt home in Middletown, Ohio, with deep ties to Appalachia. His parents divorced when he was a toddler, and his mother struggled with substance abuse. He was raised by his grandmother, called Mamaw. (She owned 19 handguns, according to his Senate bio.) Vance enlisted in the Marines, served in Iraq, graduated from The Ohio State University on the G.I. bill, and got a Yale Law degree. He was elected to the Senate on his first try.
4. Storyteller: He wrote one of the most influential books of the past decade — the best-selling "Hillbilly Elegy," which explains the rage of working-class America against elites that propelled Trump into office. The lens: his own life. The campaign says his bio appeals not just to working-class people but also to suburban women — voters Trump is working hard to attract. "All you have to do is show people the movie," says one Vance adviser, referring to the Netflix adaptation of "Hillbilly Elegy."
5. Smooth talker: He has tirelessly defended Trump on cable news — which remains one of the surest ways to Trump's heart. Vance relishes sparring with adversarial media, and Trump has told friends Vance will offer an ideal debate contrast with Vice President Harris.
6. New money: Vance — once a venture capitalist working with Ron Klain at Steve Case's Revolution investment fund — has relationships that'll open new GOP fundraising frontiers with Silicon Valley and crypto entrepreneurs.

🔮 What's next: We're told the Trump campaign plans to park Vance in Pennsylvania for the next four months, with side trips to Michigan and Wisconsin — using his Rust Belt appeal to try to deny President Biden those Blue Wall states, which he absolutely must win.

 

💡 Veepstakes winners, losers

MILWAUKEE — Sen. J.D. Vance's selection as Donald Trump's running mate electrified the crowd inside the GOP convention hall, where delegates hailed his nomination as a tribute to the "America First" movement, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

Winners

1. Populism: If there was any remaining doubt, the Republican Party of 2012 — the year Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan accepted the nomination — is dead and gone.

2. Don Jr.: A close friend of Vance who personally lobbied for his nomination, Trump Jr. cemented his status this week as a kingmaker for the next generation of MAGA leaders.

3. Forgiveness: Vance, a former "Never Trumper," attacked his new running mate in astonishingly personal terms during the 2016 campaign — even suggesting Trump could be "America's Hitler" in a private message.

✂️ Bonus winner: Beards. Vance would be the first vice president with facial hair since the mustachioed Charles Curtis, who served under President Herbert Hoover.

Losers

1. Russia hawks and Europe: Vance is perhaps the Republican Party's most vocal critic of U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing that the war isn't winnable and that the U.S. should focus on defending Taiwan against China. He has called on Ukraine to cede territory to achieve peace with Russia.

2. Democrats' détente: Vance's selection swiftly ended the pause in negative campaigning that began after the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday. Dems called the choice "despicable" and "alarming."

3. GOP donor class: Rumors of the Ohio senator's selection set off panic among traditional Republican donors, who fear his policies on trade, labor and antitrust could damage big business. Rupert Murdoch and his outlets lobbied hard for Trump to pick "anyone but J.D.," according to NOTUS.

😞 Bonus loser: Generation X. Vance, the first millennial on a major party ticket, means the political establishment skipped straight over the generation born between 1965 and 1980.

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Biden leaps left

Since his disastrous debate last month, President Biden has embraced a laundry list of left-wing policy proposals, strong-armed the party's nomination process and still tried to limit spontaneous, unscripted moments.

• Why it matters: It's saved his candidacy — for now, Axios' Alex Thompson and Andrew Solender write.

Biden's moves have kept top Democrats from stampeding away from him — even as many remain privately uneasy with the 81-year-old president staying at the top of the ticket and serving another term.

• Amid worries he could lose and drag down Democratic House and Senate candidates with him, just 20 Democrats in Congress have called on him to step aside.

That's partly because of promises that Biden — long a centrist Democrat — has made to his party's progressive wing.

• Biden said this past week that if he's re-elected, he'd call for legislation to cap landlords' ability to hike rent prices, push for a large-scale elimination of medical debt, and pursue other plans that have been applauded by progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
• Biden's chosen leadership at the Democratic National Committee also is pushing to use an electronic roll call to lock him in as the party's presidential nominee weeks before its convention begins Aug. 19 in Chicago.
• The sooner Biden is technically the nominee, the sooner he can quash the push to replace him.

🔎 Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) told Axios the president is teasing many policies the Congressional Progressive Caucus wants — which he said is "not a complete coincidence," based on where Biden is now drawing support.

• Sanders penned an effusive op-ed in the New York Times for Biden's re-election over the weekend, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has been publicly supportive.

The influential Congressional Black Caucus also has largely been enthusiastic in its support.

• That's given Biden a lifeline with lawmakers representing two of the most important parts of the Democratic Party's base.

Keep reading.

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🥊 Don Jr.'s dream job

Don Jr. told me in an exclusive interview at Axios House in Milwaukee that he wants "veto power" over presidential transition hiring if his father wins a second term in November.

• Why it matters: Trump Jr. said he wouldn't want an administration role, but instead wants to "block the bad actors."

Trump Jr. says he was fishing near his Florida home when his father was shot — and "it was 90 minutes before I even knew he was alive."

• Describing his first call with his dad after the assassination attempt, Don said: "It sort of gave me a window for some levity, and I asked [him], 'Most importantly, how's the hair?"
• "And he goes [Trump impression]: 'The hair is fine, Don, the hair is fine. Look, there's a lot of blood in it, but it's fine.'"

Watch the interview. ... More news from our conversation: Says Murdoch power "is not what it used to be." ... Demands answers on assassination attempt: "How did someone get that close for that long?"

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Presidential race

 

Former President Donald Trump's running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, formally accepted the GOP nomination for vice president and delivered remarks at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday. In his speech, Vance said Trump would "put America first" and highlighted the populist direction the two aim to take the Republican Party — and the nation. Meanwhile, sources say former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden that polls show he cannot win the 2024 election and will take down the House. Biden responded with defensiveness, telling Pelosi he has seen polls that indicate he can win, a source told CNN. Rep. Adam Schiff on Wednesday also became the most prominent elected Democrat to publicly call on Biden to drop out of the race.

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Walls close in on Biden

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images

Just about every powerful Democrat who isn't President Biden or Vice President Harris has expressed serious reservations about Biden's candidacy — making an end to that candidacy seem more likely by the day. Former President Obama has told allies that Biden's path to victory is small and he should consider dropping out, The Washington Post reported. Rep. Nancy Pelosi privately told Biden she's pessimistic about his chances, and she challenged him when he claimed to have seen polling that showed otherwise. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also told Biden to consider ending his campaign. 💥 That's pretty much everyone Biden listens to in politics, outside his family and the increasingly tight circle of his closest advisers. Privately, Biden is resigned to mounting pressure, bad polls and untenable scrutiny, making it impossible to continue his campaign, as Jim VandeHei and I reported earlier today. Several top Democrats tell Axios they now expect Biden to drop out, perhaps as soon as this weekend. 🛑 Yes, but: A senior Biden aide told us: "In recent days, the president has become more committed to staying in the race." At a counter-programming event outside the GOP convention in Milwaukee, deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters that Biden "is not wavering on anything. The president has made his decision." Go deeper: Top Dems now believe Biden will exit   Five reasons Kamala Harris is probably in if Biden drops out Top Democrats are convinced President Biden is likely to step aside as early as this weekend to make way for another Democratic presidential nominee. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/biden-drop-out-election-kamala-harris-democrat?

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Majority of Democrats think Kamala Harris would make a good president, AP-NORC poll shows

Vice President Kamala Harris said Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance told a “compelling” but incomplete story Wednesday night at the Republican National Convention.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/3533340499182-majority-of-democrats-think-kamala-harris-would-make-a-good-president-ap-norc-poll-shows?

Majority of Democrats think Kamala Harris would make a good president, AP-NORC poll shows

WASHINGTON (AP) — As President Joe Biden faces a growing drumbeat of pressure to drop his reelection bid, a majority of Democrats think his vice president would make a good president herself.

https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-poll-biden-newsom-whitmer-7ef83e5c8e510e39d7c54f7e28310064?

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Biden bouncing back from COVID, White House doctor says

President Biden's COVID symptoms have "improved meaningfully" and he's completed his fourth dose of Paxlovid, the White House physician said in a Friday update.

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/19/biden-covid-update-white-house-doctor?

Biden pushes party unity as he resists calls to step aside, says he’ll return to campaign next week

WASHINGTON (AP) — A rapidly growing chorus of Democratic lawmakers called Friday for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid, even as the president insisted he’s ready to return to the campaign trail next week to counter what he called a “dark vision” laid out by Republican Donald Trump.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-election-trump-democrats-329071c25dfaaae583b5f06184586267?

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Bookman: If the America I love is going to fall to Trumpism, I want it to go down fighting

Donald Trump ought to be the main issue in this election. He led a conspiracy to overthrow our elected government, he incited political violence on his own behalf and then refused to intervene to stop it, and he has publicly demanded that the U.S. Constitution be “terminated” – his word choice, not mine – so that he, Donald Trump, could be immediately reinstated to power.

https://georgiarecorder.com/2024/07/11/bookman-if-america-i-love-is-going-to-fall-to-trumpism-i-want-it-to-go-down-fighting/?

As a fellow Ohioan, I have some concerns about U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance

Donald Trump announced Monday Ohio junior U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate in the 2024 Election, and I have some concerns.

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2024/07/18/as-a-fellow-ohioan-america-i-have-some-concerns-about-u-s-sen-jd-vance/?