Candidates for President in 2024

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💰 Poll: Harris passes Trump on economy

Data: Poll by Financial Times and University of Michigan Ross School of Business. Chart: Axios Visuals For the first time this election cycle, voters trust the Democratic candidate more than former President Trump on the economy, according to polling by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan. Why it matters: The share of voters who say they don't trust either candidate nearly fell by half — another example of the disappearing "double hater." The survey "marks a sharp change in voter sentiment following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the White House race" last month, according to the FT. ($) Michigan professor Erik Gordon told the paper: "The fact that voters were more positive on [Vice President] Harris than on Biden ... says as much about how badly Biden was doing as it does about how well Harris is doing." Keep reading.

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Presidential race

 

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are facing another busy week ahead in their quest for the White House. Harris delivered remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser Sunday while Trump said his weekend fundraisers in Montana and Wyoming raised $28 million for his campaign. On Saturday, Trump's campaign said in a statement that it had been hacked by Iranian operatives that "intended to interfere with the 2024 election." Politico reported that it had received emails from an anonymous account with documents from inside Trump's campaign operation but it's not clear whether Iran was responsible for the hack. The White House condemned any attempt at foreign interference in American elections.

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Trump's panicked pivot

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Republican panic about Vice President Harris' sudden rise has produced the first break-glass moment of former President Trump's campaign, Axios' Sophia Cai writes. Why it matters: Harris' replacement of President Biden on the Democratic ticket has turned what looked like a Trump stroll to victory into a hot contest that Harris now leads, according to new polls. In a flurry of moves aimed at Harris' momentum, Trump yesterday: Posted on X for the first time in nearly a year. Sat for a rambling, two-hour conversation with X owner Elon Musk last night — an event that was delayed 40 minutes by technical glitches. Unveiled a barrage of online ads. Scheduled trips to two swing states. Beefed up his team by bringing Taylor Budowich — a former aide who led MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC — into the campaign as a senior adviser. 🔎 What we're watching: Just last week, Trump said he didn't plan to do much campaigning until after next week's Democratic National Convention in Chicago. But increasingly nervous Republicans have called on him to do more to provide a contrast to the enthusiastic crowds that have greeted Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Now Trump plans rallies in Asheville, N.C., on Wednesday and Wilkes Barre, Pa., on Saturday. 📺 Separate from the campaign, MAGA Inc., the Trump-friendly super PAC, announced plans to spend $100 million between now and Labor Day to run ads in seven swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.

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🤖 AI truth decay

A (real) crowd greets Vice President Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as they step off Air Force Two at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport last Wednesday. Photo: Andrew Roth/Sipa USA Former President Trump's false charge that Vice President Harris used AI to forge a photo of a crowd of supporters shows how AI can be used to undermine truth, Axios' Scott Rosenberg and Ina Fried write. Why it matters: Today's AI produces images that are often easily flagged as artificial. But that won't always be the case. Audio impersonation is already more advanced. Video is next. Catch up quick: A Trump post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday claiming that a photo showing Harris meeting a large crowd of supporters on a Detroit tarmac last week was doctored. "Has anyone noticed that Kamala CHEATED at the airport?" Trump wrote. "There was nobody at the plane, and she "A.I.'d" it, and showed a massive "crowd" of so-called followers, BUT THEY DIDN'T EXIST!" Trump seized on a tweet claiming no people were reflected on the metallic sides of Air Force Two. But the plane has curved sides and was angled away from the crowd. 🥊 Reality check: News photos, including the one above, show the crowd was plenty real. It's hard to tamper with the reality of a public event with hundreds of witnesses and multiple wire-service photographers. And you don't need AI to alter a photo — Photoshop has been doing that for decades. 🔎 Between the lines: Warnings about the danger of deepfakes have helped arm the public against an expected flood of fakery. But they've also unavoidably made it possible to question the trustworthiness of any evidence you don't like. The next time a recording surfaces of some private event where a politician said something damaging, it'll be that much easier to deny it. Some Jan. 6 defendants tried to argue that photos showing them attacking the Capitol were AI-generated fakes, invoking what a recent American Bar Association Journal article calls "the deepfake defense."

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Harris cautiously rolls out policy, aiming to outmaneuver Trump and address 2020 liabilities

WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to outmaneuver former President Donald Trump and address old vulnerabilities on her policy positions as she starts to fill in how she would govern if elected in November.

https://apnews.com/article/harris-policy-economy-tips-workers-middle-class-e606b41cce817e69a38663cc68ce7ad6?

 

Presidential race   Former President Donald Trump spoke with Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk in a live conversation on the platform for over two hours on Monday night. Technical difficulties derailed the start of the interview by more than 40 minutes, creating a public stumble for the Trump campaign as it looks to regain momentum in the race. The former president eventually fielded friendly questions from Musk while slamming Vice President Kamala Harris' stances on the economy and immigration. A CNN fact check found that Trump made at least 20 false claims during the conversation. Meanwhile, Democrats are gearing up for their national convention in Chicago next week, where Harris will formally accept her party's nomination for president on Thursday night.

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News outlets were leaked insider material from the Trump campaign. They chose not to print it

At least three news outlets were leaked confidential material from inside the Donald Trump campaign, including its report vetting JD Vance as a vice presidential candidate. So far, each has refused to reveal any details about what they received.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-vance-leak-media-wikileaks-e30bdccbdd4abc9506735408cdc9bf7b?

Why Trump’s and Harris’ proposals to end federal taxes on tips would be difficult to enact

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris agree on one thing, at least: Both say they want to eliminate federal taxes on workers’ tips.

https://apnews.com/article/harris-trump-tips-taxes-pay-workers-election-9ed6e049a53b1943471ce2b6479b9ffb?

Judge rules against RFK Jr. in fight to be on New York’s ballot, says he is not a state resident

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — A judge ruled Monday that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name should not appear on New York’s ballot, saying that he falsely claimed a New York residence on nominating petitions despite living in California.

https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-rfk-jr-ballot-new-york-residency-faaf0c8d7638cdfcdbe3c4eb7b542eef?

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The alternate-reality campaign

Photo Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

In former President Trump's version of reality, Vice President Harris' crowds are AI-generated. He's leading in nearly all the "real" polls. And President Biden might reclaim his spot on the ticket at any moment. Spoiler: None of those things is true. Why it matters: Trump's advisers and allies worry he's spending so much time in an alternative reality that it's undermining his real-world campaign, Axios' Dave Lawler writes. 🔎 The big picture: As Harris' honeymoon continues, Trump has claimed anything favorable to her — from cheering crowds to her remarkable rise in the polls — is fake news. He's tripling down on claims of election fraud, including in front of donors who are desperate for a more policy-focused message. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) urged Trump on Fox News: "Stop questioning the size of her crowds and start questioning her position" on crime and immigration. The other side: "Kamala Harris is a weak, failed and dangerously liberal career politician trying to escape reality as she flip-flops on every ... policy position she's ever held," Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said. 🗳️ The bottom line: Before Biden dropped out, Trump seemed to believe the race was all but over. "I beat Biden," Trump told Elon Musk on X last night. Trump is now in a much different race — but he doesn't seem to have fully accepted that reality. Go deeper.

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2024's budget-busters

The Trump and Harris campaign promises in just the past few weeks threaten to balloon the federal deficit, Bloomberg reports. JD Vance's call to raise the child tax credit to $5k/child would cost at least $2 trillion, possibly as much as $3 trillion, over a decade. Trump's proposal to end taxes on Social Security would cost $1.8 trillion through 2035. No-tax on tips: Trump's proposal would cost $250 billion over 10 years; Harris' narrower promise would still cost half of that. The bottom line: Fully extending the Trump tax cuts instead of letting them expire next year would cause the federal debt to spike to 132% of GDP by 2034, up from 116% if they expire, as Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin reports.

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Trump and his allies were once cheerleaders of publicizing hacked material. But that has now changed "Russia, if you’re listening,” Donald Trump said during his 2016 presidential run, “I hope you are able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” Hillary Clinton’s deleted personal emails were a hot topic in that campaign. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press,” Trump added. That changed when Trump’s latest presidential campaign declared this weekend it had been hacked by Iran. Read more.

Key points: Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign’s communications director, said in a statement on Saturday announcing that the campaign had been hacked: “Any media or news outlet reprinting documents or internal communications are doing the bidding of America’s enemies and doing exactly what they want.”   The 2016 leaked documents received widespread news coverage, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania who wrote the book “Cyberwar” on the hacking, said she found that coverage was what won the election for Trump. “2016 was not an instance of which journalists should be proud,” Jamieson said in an interview Monday, adding that the greatest question is how news organizations apply their standards to whatever material finds itself in the public domain.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ A burglary is reported at a Trump campaign office in Virginia   What we know about suspected Iranian cyber intrusion in the US presidential race   Americans give Harris an advantage over Trump on honesty and discipline, an AP-NORC poll finds

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Harris plan to redefine herself

Vice President Harris, hoping to distance herself from President Biden's unpopularity on the economy, plans a new focus on middle-class worries and woes, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• Why it matters: Beginning in North Carolina later this week with her first policy speech, and continuing next week with the Democratic convention in Chicago, Harris will tell Americans — most for the first time —who she is and how she'd govern.

Harris won't say it this bluntly in public, but her advisers do so privately: She wants to break with Biden on issues on which he's unpopular. First up: rising prices. This is part of a highly choreographed effort to define herself — in some cases, redefine herself — as a different kind of Democrat. 

• On Friday in Raleigh, she'll outline plans to lower costs of health care, housing and food for middle-class consumers, and tell how she'll "take on corporate price-gouging."

Harris was jazzed by a Financial Times poll this week showing her more trusted than former President Trump on the economy.

• Now, she wants to be not-Biden on inflation — arguably the biggest domestic topic of this campaign — by proposing clearer, more urgent solutions.

🖼️ The big picture: Harris doesn't want to be completely defined by the Biden-Harris record, advisers tell us. And she needs some distance: 80% of U.S. adults in Gallup polling say they're dissatisfied with the country's direction.

• She also wants a clean break from Biden's often-backward-looking lens on democracy and other issues. Harris, a California native who came up through Golden State politics, wants to carve out her own innovation agenda and will brand it with a generic, look-ahead spin: "Win the future."
• Tomorrow afternoon, Harris will appear with Biden in Prince George's County, Md., at an event on lowering costs for Americans — their first joint trip since he bowed out of the race 24 days ago.

A big part of the Harris plan is to unapologetically change some of her more liberal positions, and claim her White House experience helped change her mind. Yes, when she was running for president in 2019, she was against fracking, for decriminalizing illegal border crossings, and for single-payer health care (Medicare for All).

• No more. She has backed off all three.

She's also fine plucking popular Trump ideas, notably "no tax on tips" for service and hospitality workers — popular in Nevada, one of the biggest swing states.

Covers: TIME, New York Magazine

A big and fair question is: What does Harris really believe?

• Her bet: whatever she says in the small, three-month window of her snap campaign will be what sticks. Harris knows most people know little about her. So she believes she can define herself, even if it includes flip-flops and co-opts.
• "She can't break the glass ceiling with a weak foundation," Donna Brazile, a former Democratic National Committee chairwoman who has known Harris since the vice president was an up-and-coming D.A. in San Francisco. "She knows she has to be tough."

What we're hearing: We're told Harris wants to be seen as the change agent in the race.

• Her emphasis on the cost of groceries is meant to signal she can better relate to typical households than Trump.

Look for Harris to emphasize her record as a prosecutor, including settlements she won in price-fixing cases as California attorney general.

• Later, she'll present plans to help entrepreneurs and small businesses.

Context: Harris has said at rallies that fighting inflation will be a Day 1 priority, and that strengthening the middle class would be a defining goal of her presidency.

• She often says prices are too high. Biden has taken on shrinkflation and hidden "junk fees" that plague consumers and travelers. Just this week, the White House unveiled plans to "Lower Costs for Families and Fight Corporate Rip-Offs."

The backstory: In ads and her stump speeches, Harris emphasizes her middle-class roots — the daughter of a working mother who didn't own a home until Harris was in high school.

• A new Harris video notes she worked at a McDonald's while she attended Howard University.

Ashley Etienne, Harris' first communications director as vice president, said Harris was the first person she heard talking about the sandwich generation — younger adults caring for both kids and aging parents.

• "I realized that was me," Etienne said. "She has the ability to see people who've been lost by the system."

⏰ Reality check: The knock on Harris by some former staffers is she can overthink things to the point of exhaustion — and confusion.

• So it's not always clear what core, unbendable beliefs animate her. No doubt, she was a liberal in the Senate and during her failed 2019 presidential campaign. But her new persona and policy shifts suggest a repositioning to the center of the modern Democratic Party. Basically, she's a Biden Democrat — even if she hopes to downplay that in some areas.

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2024 race

 

Former President Donald Trump is continuing to describe Vice President Kamala Harris' elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket as "unconstitutional" and accusing her of taking part in a "coup." No serious effort is underway to challenge Harris' status as the Democratic nominee but some of Trump's critics warn that he could be laying the groundwork to question the outcome of the 2024 election if he loses a second time. The Democratic National Committee made it official last week: Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are the party nominees for president and vice president, respectively. Delegates held a virtual roll call ahead of the convention, with Harris receiving 99% of the votes from those who participated. Republicans have acknowledged that after the DNC vote, there is no longer any path to challenge Harris' placement on ballots.

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2024's budget-busters

The Trump and Harris campaign promises in just the past few weeks threaten to balloon the federal deficit, Bloomberg reports. JD Vance's call to raise the child tax credit to $5k/child would cost at least $2 trillion, possibly as much as $3 trillion, over a decade. Trump's proposal to end taxes on Social Security would cost $1.8 trillion through 2035. No-tax on tips: Trump's proposal would cost $250 billion over 10 years; Harris' narrower promise would still cost half of that. The bottom line: Fully extending the Trump tax cuts instead of letting them expire next year would cause the federal debt to spike to 132% of GDP by 2034, up from 116% if they expire, as Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin reports.

[bonnie1962]

13 minutes ago, phkrause said:

How can this be true? Kamala Harris claims it as her own. Has to be a great idea

Trump's proposal to end taxes on Social Security would cost $1.8 trillion through 2035.

 

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Harris gains swing state edge over Trump: Cook Political Report

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading or tied with Republican opponent former President Trump in six of seven key swing states, per a Wednesday report from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/14/kamala-harris-swing-states-cook-political-report-election?

[bonnie1962]

2 minutes ago, phkrause said:

Harris gains swing state edge over Trump: Cook Political Report

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading or tied with Republican opponent former President Trump in six of seven key swing states, per a Wednesday report from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/14/kamala-harris-swing-states-cook-political-report-election?

Truly a miracle, going from independents, democrats and republicans considering Kamal Harris a step behind a village idiot to walking on water. Explains so much LOL

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Trump goes big

Former President Trump is offering massive tax cuts if he's elected, courting voters with big giveaways without discussing how they'll pay for it.

• Why it matters: Trump's big policy legacy was his tax cuts in 2017. Now he's promising to go much further in 2025.

⚡️ With his offerings spelled out on the backdrop of his rally in Asheville, N.C., Trump listed promises for voters who think the economy isn't working.

• For service workers: No taxes on your tips. Price tag is $250 billion a year.
• For seniors: No taxes on your Social Security. Price tag is roughly $150 billion a year.
• For people who want lower bills: Trump promises to cut the price of electricity in half. The U.S. is the world's leading oil producer.
• For everyone else: The Trump tax cuts will be extended in 2025.

Left unsaid in Trump's promises: How to pay for them, and how to protect Social Security while cutting taxes.

Between the lines: Trump campaigning in North Carolina should get your attention.

• The last Democrat to win a presidential race there was Barack Obama in 2008. The Trump campaign thought it was fine until President Biden left the race.

 

Trump's Harris prebuttal

When he was on script, Trump focused on attaching Vice President Kamala Harris to President Biden's economic record.

• "Does anyone here feel richer under Kamala Harris and Crooked Joe than you were during the Trump administration? Is anything less expensive under Kamala Harris and Crooked Joe?"
• "When Kamala lays out her fake economic plan this week, [it] probably will be a copy of my plan, because basically, that's what she does," he said.

Zoom out: Prices are no longer rising rapidly even though they remain high, a sign that inflation is no longer the economy's big problem, per today's Consumer Price Index.

• The bad news was in the housing sector, where prices have kept upward pressure on inflation, Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown reports.

Harris plans her own major economic speech Friday in Raleigh, N.C.

• She'll outline plans to lower costs of health care, housing and food for middle-class consumers, and tell how she'll "take on corporate price-gouging," Axios reported this morning.

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Racism Is Why Trump Is So Popular

To understand the rise of Donald Trump, you don’t need to go to a diner in the Midwest or read “Hillbilly Elegy,” J.D. Vance’s memoir.

https://theintercept.com/2024/08/10/republicans-trump-vance-racism-white-nationalism/?

Americans give Harris an advantage over Trump on honesty and discipline, an AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris has a perceived advantage over former President Donald Trump on several leadership qualities such as honesty, a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds, although Americans are slightly more likely to trust Trump on the economy and immigration.

https://apnews.com/article/harris-trump-honesty-discipline-immigration-ap-poll-f025463df08beacbaa0c51e7bbb7eda7?

Ruling that bounced Kennedy from New York ballot could challenge him in other states

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential campaign suffered a blow this week when a judge in New York invalidated his petition to put his name on the state ballot, a ruling that could potentially create problems for the candidate as he faces challenges elsewhere.

https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-rfk-jr-ballot-new-york-residency-states-f96d46318524fad967271fed292aa212?

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Campaign spending blast

Data: AdImpact. (Spending by issue groups, PACs, candidates and parties.) Chart: Axios Visuals The Harris and Trump campaigns are racing to define the vice president, burning through cash to buy TV ads ahead of the usual fall onslaught, Axios' Hans Nichols, Stef W. Kight and Erin Doherty write. Why it matters: Harris' late entry has compressed the campaign into a European-style snap election. The two campaigns and their supporting groups have reserved a total of about $280 million in ads just in August, according to AdImpact figures through this morning. Both plan to turn their record-setting fundraising into tens of millions more in ad buys by the end of the month. Trump's campaign is upping its spending after largely relying on affiliated groups earlier in the cycle. 🔭 Zoom out: The huge ad buys for August reflect two big factors in this campaign. Neither side is hurting for cash. Harris trounced Trump in fundraising last month, but Trump has plenty of outside help to level the field. At least three super PACs are in Trump's corner, and another one — backed by Elon Musk — has gotten the stamp of approval from Trump's campaign. Early voting — with some states collecting ballots in September — has pulled the campaign season forward. Democrats realized this four years ago. Republicans — after resisting early voting in 2020 and flip-flopping this year — now are spending like they believe in it.

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🗳️ Poll: Harris boosts Senate Dems

Data: Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project. (May horse race was between Trump and Biden.) Image: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter NEW this morning: Increased enthusiasm for Vice President Harris is boosting Democrats in swing-state Senate races, according to polling from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Why it matters: Democrats face a brutal path to holding the Senate. Democrats improved their vote share in every Senate race since Cook Political last fielded polls on seven presidential battlegrounds in May. "The surge has been particularly large in Nevada, which had been one of Biden's worst states," Cook's Jessica Taylor writes. Between the lines: If the Democrats keep the White House, they can afford to lose only one seat. It's unlikely they'll win in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin didn't seek re-election. "Montana Sen. Jon Tester remains the most in peril in a state Trump won in 2020 by 16 points, followed by Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown in a Trump +8 state," Taylor writes. 💡 Key finding: "Unlike a few months ago, RFK Jr. voters are much more likely to vote for Trump over Harris in a 2-way election; some anti-Biden Dems likely returned to backing Dems" under Harris. Go deeper: Nevada Senate race shifts to lean Democrat. ($)

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🏢 Trump's potential office effect

Pedestrians in downtown D.C. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Former President Trump's talk of downsizing government agencies during a potential second administration threatens to disrupt the DMV's already struggling office market. Why it matters: The federal government is a huge employer in the Washington region, and reducing its footprint could hamper the local economy, experts say. State of play: Some of Trump's Agenda 47 rhetoric has centered on reducing the federal government's footprint, such as shuttering the Education Department, firing "rogue bureaucrats and career politicians," and moving up to 100,000 federal workers outside of the "Washington Swamp." The big picture: The Biden administration has struggled to get workers back in office, while some federal agencies — like State and Housing and Urban Development — are planning to shrink their space. It doesn't help that many agencies are housed in dated buildings, especially as companies increasingly pivot to fancy offices to sway workers back in, says Terry Clower, director of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis. And the local economy's already being impacted: D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser's recent budget proposal saw half a billion in cuts to make up for a $4 billion budget gap, due in large part to the local struggling office market and its ripple effects. What they're saying: "I cannot imagine any scenario under four years of a Trump administration where we don't see a substantial impact on the sheer number of federal workers [in the DMV]," says Clower. He says this would in turn cause already shrinking federal agencies to further downsize, creating detrimental spillover effects into the region's wider economy. The other side: A spokesperson for Team Trump Virginia told the Washington Post that the DMV's economy would be improved by Trump's plans to double down on military investments and make D.C. the "safest" and "most beautiful" capital city. Reality check: Should Trump be re-elected and attempt to carry out his proposed policy, some of it would likely require congressional action, which could be difficult if Congress is split. And, as the Post points out, such changes could be challenged in court. Keep reading.

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Two women directly affected by abortion bans in their states campaign in FL for Harris-Walz

Texas resident Amanda Zurawski and Louisiana’s Kaitlyn Joshua made stops in Orlando and Tampa Wednesday on behalf of the Harris-Walz Democratic presidential campaign and described how their unsuccessful pregnancies were exacerbated by their physicians’ fears due to abortion bans.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/08/14/two-women-directly-affected-by-abortion-bans-in-their-states-campaign-in-fl-for-harris-walz/?

Fact-checking attacks on Walz’s military record by Vance and other Republicans

Republican vice presidential nominee and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance sought to negatively frame the 24-year military career of newly minted Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, Minnesota’s current governor.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-attacks-on-walzs-military-record-by-vance-and-other-republicans

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🦊 Harris' Fox News surprise

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign this week began trying to persuade a surprising group of voters: Fox News viewers.

• The Harris campaign began running four spots yesterday on the network, a Fox News spokesperson confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: While Fox News is known for its conservative coverage, its viewers — particularly during the daytime — are more ideologically diverse, and the Harris team wants to reach them.

• The ads are largely positive about Harris' life, a sharp contrast with the network's often-critical programming about her.
• The Biden campaign ran Fox News ads in 2023 to counterprogram the first GOP primary debate, as Semafor reported.

The big picture: The new buy is part of a much larger, more expensive battle between the Harris and Trump campaigns to define Harris in the first weeks after she became the Democratic nominee.

• The vast majority of the ads are about Harris as the Trump team tries to blunt her momentum and the Harris team is attempting to keep it going, according to an Axios review.

Zoom in: "Kamala Harris knows what it's like to be middle class," the narrator says in one ad about Harris' upbringing.

• In an attempt to draw a comparison with the former president, the narrator adds that "Donald Trump has no plan to help the middle class."

What they're saying: The Harris campaign directed Axios to a memo from senior leadership earlier this week about its large ad buy in August.

• "It is precisely through efforts like this that we will break through a crowded media environment early and make clear the choice and stakes of this election for the voters who will decide it," principal deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks said.

By the numbers: From July 21, when President Biden dropped out, through Labor Day on Sept. 2, both campaigns are set to spend over $300 million on TV and digital ads, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.

• The Harris team — including outside super PACs — has spent or has reservations for $96 million in TV ads across that date range compared to $146 million booked by Trump's team.
• With the introduction of Harris, both teams are spending far more in August than they did in 2020.

 

Harris' housing giveaway

Vice President Harris' economic package tomorrow will include a proposal to provide up to $25,000 in down payment support for first-time homeowners, ABC News reported this evening. Why it matters: Middle-class voters, a huge prize, are housing-starved. But it's hard to see how this plan would affect prices and availability in a meaningful way. Between the lines: Harris' plan could spike demand and drive home prices even higher, Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck tells me. The down payment support would give far more people the ability to purchase, increasing the number of buyers competing for houses. The details: Harris will call for the construction of 3 million new housing units by the end of 2028, the Wall Street Journal reports. That's up from the 2 million proposed by the Biden administration. Neither's plan could address interest rates that are controlled by the Federal Reserve. Go deeper: Trump goes big on tax cut promises in Harris prebuttal

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The Harris campaign is zeroing in on food and housing prices Vice President Kamala Harris will preview an economic policy speech Friday in North Carolina, promising to push for a federal ban on price gouging on groceries and laying out plans to cut other costs as she looks to address one of voters’ top concerns. Read more.

Why this matters: Year-over-year inflation has reached its lowest level in more than three years, but food prices are 21% above where they were three years ago. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has pointed to inflation as a key failing of the Biden administration.   The cost of housing is another major driver of inflation, and Harris plans to use federal resources to promote the construction of 3 million new housing units if elected, pass legislation to slow rent increases and provide $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.   Earlier Thursday, Biden and Harris celebrated their efforts to cut prescription drug prices at her first joint speaking appearance with President Joe Biden since she replaced him at the top of the Democratic ticket nearly four weeks ago. They announced that drug price negotiations will knock hundreds of dollars — in some cases thousands — off the list prices of 10 of Medicare’s most popular and costliest drugs.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ What do marijuana, the death penalty and fracking have in common? Harris shifted positions on them   These six House races are ones to watch in this year’s election   Why the progressive ‘Squad’ is getting smaller after defeats this primary cycle   Trump says he’s ‘entitled to personal attacks’ against Harris Former President Donald Trump added that he was “very angry” at Kamala Harris and questioned her intelligence as he hammered his Democratic rival on inflation with grocery props. Read more. Why this matters: Trump says he feels that he’s earned the right to take on his political opponents in a personal way. It’s a theme Trump often hits in his rally speeches, citing the legal cases against him and characterizing them as politically motivated attacks by Democratic prosecutors and the Biden Justice Department.   As the economy takes center stage in the presidential contest, Trump is blaming inflation directly on government spending — sidestepping some of the more complex realities of global supply chain interruptions during the pandemic and global oil price spikes after Russia invaded Ukraine. Harris, in turn, has focused the blame on corporate greed, glossing over the effects of considerable stimulus spending by the U.S. and other governments around the world.   So far, Trump has not introduced any of his proposals to confront the situation. He’s opting instead for blaming Harris, because she is Biden’s top lieutenant, and recycling his sweeping predictions that a President Harris would tank the economy. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ FACT FOCUS: Trump blends falsehoods and exaggerations at rambling NJ press conference   Beyond ‘childless cat ladies,’ JD Vance has long been on a quest to encourage more births   The wife of Republican Wisconsin US Senate candidate Hovde takes aim at female Democratic incumbent

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Trump's "caught on tape" women problem

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

In an election defined by an historic gender gap, former President Trump and Sen. JD Vance have a big gap in how they think and talk about the other gender, compared to most men in American politics, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column. For Trump, it's his unusual vulgar and sexist language. For Vance, it's anachronistic-sounding views on the role of women in modern society. Why it matters: Women are more reliable voters than men. And polls suggest they'll reliably vote by big margins for Vice President Harris. A Quinnipiac Poll out this week found a gender gulf among likely voters in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania: Women backed Harris 54% to 41%, while men went for Trump, 49% to 42%. (Overall, Harris was up 48% to 45%.) This vulnerability for Trump and Vance is driven partly by moments that are caught on tape and impossible to deny: Shortly after President Biden's disastrous debate, former President Trump was sitting on a golf cart, casually saying Harris is "so f--king bad." Off camera, The New York Times reported, he was calling her a "bitch." Back in 2005, in a moment many thought would end his political career when it leaked just before the 2016 election, Trump was caught by "Access Hollywood" casually explaining that stars can "do anything" with women — "grab 'em by the p---y." In the eight years between the revelations of the crude, misogynistic moments, Trump has built his popularity around tough-guy masculinity — often punctuated with caustic words for women, including journalists who confront him. He's called them "crazy," "unhinged" and "nasty." Vance's issue with women is different but equally problematic. He often sounds like a bar scene in '60s-era "Mad Men." In a 2020 podcast clip that surfaced this week, Vance was discussing the part his mother-in-law, a biology professor, played in raising her grandchild. Vance didn't disagree when the host asserted: "That's the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female, in theory." Campaign spokeswoman Taylor Van Kirk said Vance "does not agree with what the host said. JD reacted to the first part of the host's sentence, assuming he was going to say: 'that's the whole purpose of spending time with grandparents.'" Anthony Scaramucci, a former Trump official who's now a critic, said on CNN that this particular attack is unfair and that Vance "gets a pass on that one." Confronted about his 2021 reference to the American leadership class as dominated by "a bunch of childless cat ladies," Vance told Megyn Kelly: "Obviously, it was a sarcastic comment. I've got nothing against cats." His wife, Usha Vance, dismissed it as a "quip." Vance allies say his memoir about growing up in Appalachia, "Hillbilly Elegy," appeals to suburban women, many of whom are hearing his story for the first time. The book returned to No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list after Trump picked him, and is now on the list for the 77th week. The movie became a top stream on Netflix. Vance, with his wife at his side, told NBC aboard his campaign plane that he "was in a lot of ways raised by strong women, from my grandmother to my mom to my aunt to my sister, and everybody played a big role." 💡 Between the lines: Trump won against a woman, Hillary Clinton, the first time he ran. Then he lost to a man, Joe Biden. Now he once again faces a woman in an election defined by a massive gender gap and abortion politics. Trump advisers are acutely attuned to this vulnerability. They worry that in a debate, he'll come off as paternalistic, racist or misogynistic if he doesn't control his worst impulses. They know they can't win simply by running up the score with men. They need swing female voters, many of whom like his policies but loathe his style, to back him. 🔮 What to watch: A campaign source told us Harris and running-mate Tim Walz will continue to respond to such moments not in a "pearl-clutching/offended way" — but instead by radiating warmth ("joyful warrior") and humor ("weird," "mind your own damn business!"), and by letting "their cringey-ness cause self-sabotage." Swing states Nevada and Arizona have abortion-related ballot measures, which have the potential to juice turnout among independent women. The other side: Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign communications director, said Trump "has made record gains across the board with every voting group," and "has an undefeated debate record and he will prosecute the case against Kamala Harris and Tim Walz."   Another Trump risk: Overexposure Former President Trump is flirting with a familiar pattern of self-sabotage, betting he can reverse his polling slide with one simple trick: Give the public more Trump, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: It's a high-risk head-scratcher for one of the most polarizing candidates in U.S. history, four years after his 2020 re-election bid was derailed in large part by voter exhaustion. 🖼️ The big picture: Anxious to halt Vice President Harris' momentum, Trump is flooding the zone with spontaneous press conferences, meandering rally speeches and angry social media outbursts. The public appearances attract plenty of attention: The Trump campaign claimed that a billion people listened to Monday's glitchy interview with Elon Musk. But while they exhilarate the GOP base, there's no indication that these events are expanding Trump's appeal with the swing voters he needs most. Democrats, on the other hand, see Trump's free-wheeling speeches as a gold mine for viral clips and ad material painting the GOP nominee as incoherent and "unhinged." The Harris campaign issued a mock media advisory yesterday advertising the date and time of Trump's press conference at his Bedminster golf club, where it predicted a "self-obsessed rant." 👓 Zoom in: The event — which featured grocery items as props — was billed as economy-focused, but quickly took a turn as Trump unleashed a stream of false claims and personal attacks against Harris. "I think I'm entitled to personal attacks. I don't have a lot of respect for her, I don't have a lot of respect for her intelligence," Trump told reporters when asked about his allies' calls for better message discipline. "I have to do it my way," he added. What to watch: The Trump campaign sees his press conferences as a way to goad Harris into more unscripted appearances, where they believe the VP will stumble. So far, Harris isn't taking the bait.

[phkrause]

Trump rallies   Bulletproof glass will surround former President Donald Trump at his campaign rallies moving forward as the Secret Service aims to increase security on the campaign trail. The heightened safety measures are being implemented in the wake of the assassination attempt against Trump at his rally last month in Butler, Pennsylvania. Additional precautions also include increasing the number of agents and certain technological changes, a senior official told CNN. Ballistic glass is commonly used to protect sitting presidents and is moved into place by the Department of Defense. For Trump, the Secret Service will strategically place the glass across the country where the former president is expected to visit in the lead-up to the November election.