Candidates for President in 2024

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😡 GOP bemoans Trump's lack of focus

Former President Trump's apparent inability to stay on message is grating on some of his Republican allies on Capitol Hill, Axios' Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke report.

• What they're saying: "If he doesn't have message discipline, and he doesn't focus on the sh*t we need to be focused on right now," Trump's bad days are "not going to pass," one GOP lawmaker told Axios.

🗳️ Republican lawmakers fear that an unfocused campaign could doom their chances of controlling Congress — a concern Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the leader of the House GOP's campaign arm, voiced during a call with colleagues yesterday.

• He also implored GOP candidates to step up their fundraising to stay competitive with newly energized Democrats.

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Election 2024 highlights: Harris unveils part of her emerging economic platform at North Carolina rally

Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled her economic agenda in a speech Friday in Raleigh. She laid out her plans, including a proposal for a federal ban on price gouging on groceries. She also is proposing $25,000 in down payment help for certain first-time homebuyers and tax incentives for builders of starter homes, among other things.

https://apnews.com/live/election-2024-live-updates-trump-harris-vance-walz?

Bibles, cryptocurrency, Truth Social and gold bars: A look at Trump’s reported sources of income

Former President Donald Trump owns more than $1 million worth of cryptocurrency and up to $250,000 in gold bars along with the portfolio of golf courses and real estate properties that have made him a billionaire, according to newly released financial disclosures.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-financial-disclosures-bible-cryptocurrency-126e8382dd3501e3144de1a8aa9df2f6?

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2024 shocker: Rare agreement

A populist bidding war has erupted on the 2024 campaign trail, producing an unusual convergence of policy proposals between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

• Why it matters: In an election both sides are treating as existential, ruthless politics are the name of the game. In some cases, that means skimping on details or abandoning sound economics.

Zoom in: In her first major policy address, Harris unveiled an economic agenda that includes a $6,000 child tax credit for families during the first year of a newborn's life.

• Within hours, a Trump campaign official told Semafor that Trump would "consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit," citing Sen. JD Vance's (R-Ohio) recent advocacy for a $5,000 credit.
• Restoring the pandemic era's enhanced child tax credit has long been a priority for Democrats. But Vance's proposal suddenly has some Trump allies claiming policy theft.

Via X

🖼️ The big picture: Harris, whose 28-day-old campaign is playing catch-up on the economy, has been accused of flip-flopping on past positions, distancing herself from President Biden and — in some cases — outright pandering.

• But some elements of her agenda simply reflect the realignment of partisan politics — and an American electorate that has found common ground on some big issues:

1. Inflation: Harris is making a concerted effort to shake off Biden's economic baggage, beginning with a blunt acknowledgment yesterday that costs have surged for food, gas and housing.

• "We couldn't have said it better ourselves," Trump campaign tweeted alongside a supercut of Harris rattling off the various ways high prices are affecting American families.

2. Border security: Keenly aware of Trump's polling advantage on immigration, Harris released an ad last week vowing to "hire thousands more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking."

• It's still a far cry from Trump's pledge to carry out mass deportations. But Democrats' positioning on the border has shifted radically over the last four years.

3. No tax on tips: The same day she was endorsed by Nevada's powerful Culinary Union, Harris promised to eliminate taxes on tips — enraging Trump, who had made a similar pledge two months earlier.

4. No fracking ban: Harris has maintained "strategic ambiguity" on hot-button energy issues, but no longer favors a ban on fracking on federal lands — a prerequisite to winning Pennsylvania, the most important swing state.

5. Deficits don't matter: Left unsaid in both Harris and Trump's economic plans is how they will pay for them — a signature characteristic of populism that reflects how both parties treat the deficit while in power.

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A sudden shift of enthusiasm

I’ve been trying to think of the last time there was such a dramatic shift in a political race than the one we experienced in the past couple of weeks with Joe Biden stepping down. The closest thing I could think of, at least in my lifetime, was when Bobby Kennedy declared his candidacy in 1967, which is a bit ironic considering the unbearable presence of RFK’s son in this year’s proceedings. 

https://dailymontanan.com/2024/08/13/a-sudden-shift-of-enthusiasm/?

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Trump's devil-in-Georgia problem

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Grant Baldwin, Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Georgia is Donald Trump's Pennsylvania. It's as hard to see him winning the presidency without Georgia as it would be for Vice President Kamala Harris to win without Pennsylvania, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column. Why it matters: The Trump campaign knows and believes this fervently. That's why a huge number of Trump TV ads in coming weeks will air in Georgia. Yet Trump himself has made this make-or-break state dramatically more breakable by torching its popular Republican governor, Brian Kemp, bluntly and repeatedly. "He's a bad guy. He's a disloyal guy. And he's a very average governor," Trump said earlier this month at a rally in ... wait for it ... Atlanta! "Little Brian, little Brian Kemp. Bad guy." It's like the state brings out the worst in Trump, some advisers bemoan. "It's petty self-indulgence," a source close to Trump told us. 🚨 What's even more shocking: Trump lived and learned this exact lesson in 2020 — when his personal grudge with Kemp cost Republicans control of the U.S. Senate. Oh, it also helped cost him reelection: Trump lost the state by 12,000 votes in 2020 — the first Georgia loss for Republicans since 1992. So when you read stories about Trump's own advisers privately moaning about his self-destructive behavior, that's precisely what they mean. They need to squeeze every vote out of Georgia to avoid a repeat of 2020. 📊 The big picture: Polling released yesterday by the N.Y. Times and Siena College showed Harris opening up a Sun Belt route through the fast-growing, diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. That gives her an alternative to the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were President Biden's only plausible path. Harris had narrowed Trump's lead among likely voters in Georgia to 4 points (50% to 46%, with a margin of error of ±4.4 points). In the Times-Siena poll in May, Trump enjoyed a 9-point Georgia lead. Between the lines: Harris' rise in the state is partly, but not entirely, due to Black voters, who make up one-third of the state's electorate. Harris is a more effective messenger on reproductive rights in a state with a controversial ban on abortions after about six weeks. A top Democratic operative told us Harris "is just a much better fit than Biden for the Georgia electorate, which has younger and more Black voters. Much easier to see Stacey Abrams and [Sen. Raphael] Warnock firing up the pews" for Harris than for Biden. 👀 Behind the scenes: We hear Kemp has grown increasingly worried Trump could lose the state by alienating too many moderate Republicans. Kemp isn't sleeping on this, despite being called names: Look for him to shore up the state GOP's get-out-the-vote operation in an effort to rescue Trump. Column continues below.   💰 Part 2: Georgia spending spree   Data: AdImpact. Chart: Axios Visuals The Trump campaign gets the plot, and is spending heavily to try to offset Trump's attacks on Kemp and his wife, Marty, Jim and Mike write. "Atlanta is like a killing field and your governor ought to get off his ass and do something about it," Trump said at an Atlanta rally. As The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported, Trump's campaign and biggest aligned super PAC spent four times as much on TV ads in the Peach State in the two weeks after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee than in the rest of 2024 combined. Of the $37 million in ad buys the Trump campaign has placed over the next week or so, almost $24 million (65%) are in Georgia, Democratic campaign strategist Doug Sosnik points out in The New York Times. 🔎 By the numbers: The growing urgency of Georgia can also be seen in the Trump campaign's long-range ad buys. The Trump campaign's share of TV spending planned in Georgia doubled from 21% in August to 43% in September and 46% in October, according to calculations for Axios by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. In fact, Trump has placed advance ad buys for this fall in only two states. Wait for it ... Pennsylvania and Georgia. The campaign is sure to add to those reservations. But it's an illuminating window into current priorities. 📺 Being there: With Biden in the race, presidential politics were relatively quiet in Georgia. One Trump confidant even told us he thought Georgia would be off the list of swing states by Election Day. Atlanta's biggest story of the summer was a water main break that left a large part of the city under a boil water advisory for five days. Now the election is flooding the airwaves. Atlanta residents watching local NBC affiliate 11 Alive on Friday morning would've seen 17 ads about the 2024 presidential race — and all were about Harris, according to Medium Buying. Of those 17, nine were from the Harris campaign touting her positives on the economy and border security. Eight were from Trump-affiliated groups blasting Harris on the border and as a "radical." The other side: The Harris-Walz campaign took a victory lap on its Sun Belt gains yesterday, as it announced plans to spend "at least $370 million on digital and television advertising between Labor Day and Election Day" — "on top of what the campaign believes to be the largest digital reservation in the history of American politics at more than $200 million." "After we went up with a significant buy in North Carolina last month, the Trump campaign was forced to go up on the air in a state where they had not been spending at all," the memo says. "We've also forced the Trump campaign to significantly increase its spending in Georgia, after poll after poll showed the Vice President gaining." Axios Atlanta's Jen Ashley, Kristal Dixon and Thomas Wheatley contributed reporting.

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Harris and Trump offer worlds-apart contrasts on top issues in presidential race

Whoever prevails in November will seek to shape the landscape of American life in ways wholly distinct from their opponent. From abortion to taxes, here’s where Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stand on 10 top issues. Read more.

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Trump again decries two gold medalist Olympic athletes, falsely labeling the female boxers as men

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump on Saturday again decried two gold medalist Olympic athletes, falsely labeling the female boxers as men.

https://www.newsbreak.com/the-associated-press-510077/3565573351986-trump-again-decries-two-gold-medalist-olympic-athletes-falsely-labeling-the-female-boxers-as-men?

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16 minutes ago, phkrause said:

Trump again decries two gold medalist Olympic athletes, falsely labeling the female boxers as men

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump on Saturday again decried two gold medalist Olympic athletes, falsely labeling the female boxers as men.

https://www.newsbreak.com/the-associated-press-510077/3565573351986-trump-again-decries-two-gold-medalist-olympic-athletes-falsely-labeling-the-female-boxers-as-men?

1. • • The Algerian and Taiwanese boxers embroiled in a row over gender in sport at the Paris Olympics were disqualified from the 2023 World Championships after a sex chromosome test ruled both of them ineligible, the International Boxing Association said on Monday (August 5).
     www.msn.com › en-us › sports

     Gender row boxers were disqualified from World Championships ...

2. www.reuters.com › sports › olympicsBarred boxing federation says Khelif failed chromosome test

    

   Aug 5, 2024 · PARIS, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The Algerian and Taiwanese boxers embroiled in a dispute over gender in sport at the Paris Games were disqualified from the 2023 World Championships

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‘I’m entitled to personal attacks’ against Harris, Trump asserts

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Thursday he sees no need to switch the tactics or tone of his bid for the White House now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee instead of President Joe Biden.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/08/16/im-entitled-to-personal-attacks-against-harris-trump-asserts/?

Exclusive: Conservative Republican endorses Harris, calls Trump a threat to democracy

Retired federal appeals court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a prominent conservative legal scholar put on the bench by President George H.W. Bush, is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, whose candidacy he describes as an existential threat to American democracy.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/19/politics/conservative-republican-endorses-harris-calls-trump-a-threat-to-democracy/index.html?

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🚨 Trump hackers ID'd

Iran is behind the hack of the Trump presidential campaign, the U.S. government said today.

• In a joint statement, the FBI and two other agencies said they're "confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts" targeted both campaigns "to influence the U.S. election process."

Why it matters: These hacking efforts are the clearest signs yet of efforts by foreign governments to interfere in the 2024 elections, a government official told CNN.

• The Trump campaign confirmed it was hacked earlier this month.
• Hackers also unsuccessfully targeted the Biden-Harris campaign.

Zoom out: "Iran and Russia have employed these tactics not only in the United States during this and prior federal election cycles but also in other countries around the world," the agencies said.

• Read the statement.

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Harris' scripted campaign

Vice President Harris will accept the Democratic presidential nomination Thursday without having sat for an interview, held a press conference or released many details about her policy priorities in the month since she entered the race, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.

• Why it matters: The initial strategy is part of a larger pattern of Harris being risk-averse, with highly choreographed and scripted appearances — and just a couple of short gaggles with reporters.

Harris' team has put off repeated interview requests from media outlets for four weeks.

• She has committed to one interview by Aug. 31.
• Through anonymous campaign spokespeople, Harris' campaign has said she wouldn't ban fracking, try to pass Medicare for All, or implement some other progressive ideas she embraced during her presidential campaign for the 2020 nomination.

🔎 Between the lines: Harris' cautious approach has been evident during her time as vice president.

• Some of her aides have felt she has been too risk-averse, and would get too frustrated when anything went wrong — a dynamic the aides say made them less likely to push for creative proposals.
• This past week, she proposed some of her first policy initiatives. They largely focused on the economy, as Donald Trump maintains a polling lead on the issue.

Flashback: When Hillary Clinton and Biden ran for president in 2016 and 2020 respectively, each campaign wrote out dozens of policy proposals they touted publicly.

• Harris' current website still doesn't have a policy page.
• The Democratic Party's policy platform was originally passed before Biden dropped out and still includes repeated references to a second Biden term.

🥊 Reality check: Harris' defenders cast her approach as steady and disciplined, rather than overly careful.

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Iran is responsible for hacks targeting Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns, US intelligence officials say The assessment casting the cyber intrusion as part of a brazen and broader effort by Tehran to interfere in American politics and potentially shape the outcome of the election. Read more.

Why this matters: The assessment from the FBI and other federal agencies was the first time the U.S. government has assigned blame for hacks that have raised anew the threat of foreign election interference and underscored how Iran, in addition to more sophisticated adversaries like Russia and China, remains a top concern.   The FBI statement was released at a time of significant tensions between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s mission to the U.N. denied the allegations as “unsubstantiated and devoid of any standing,” saying that Iran had neither the motive nor intention to interfere with the election. It challenged the U.S. to provide evidence and said if the U.S. does so, “we will respond accordingly.”   The U.S. did not detail how it reached the conclusion that Iran was responsible, nor did it describe the nature of any information that may have been stolen from the Trump campaign. But it said the intelligence community was confident “the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the Presidential campaigns of both political parties.”

Related coverage ➤ Suspected Trump hack comes as Iran flexes digital muscles  What we know about suspected Iranian cyber intrusion in the presidential race

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Black men emerge as key constituency in 2024 race, bringing dynamic views to the top of politics

The candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris has refocused attention on Black men, a demographic that Democrats and Republicans view as persuadable but whose multifaceted experiences and political preferences often go unaddressed in public debate. Read More.     Sun Belt back in play   Mike Allen interviews David Plouffe at Axios House in Chicago. Photo: Taylor Glascock on behalf of Axios Vice President Harris has "greatly improved" the party's position, said David Plouffe, a senior adviser to her campaign who also served as Obama's campaign manager in 2008. "A month ago, I think it would have been hard for Democrats to compete in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina to win," Plouffe said at an Axios House event in Chicago. "I think those are all back as credible states Kamala Harris could win." Keep reading.

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Nicole Shanahan says RFK Jr. campaign considering joining forces with Trump

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s running mate Nicole Shanahan said in an interview out Tuesday that the campaign is considering dropping its bid and joining forces with former President Trump as it weighs its options for the future.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/20/rfk-jr-nicole-shanahan-2024?

Trump courts RFK Jr.

The prospect of a RFK Jr. alliance with former President Trump suddenly looks much more real.

Why it matters: "I like him, and I respect him," Trump told CNN after RFK Jr.'s running mate Nicole Shanahan said the campaign is considering dropping its bid and joining forces with Trump.

• One Kennedy backer called off a fundraiser next month in Utah after Shanahan's interview, NBC reports.

The bottom line: Kennedy exiting the race would likely help Trump, who tends to perform worse in polls when third-party candidates are included.

 

RFK Jr.

 

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considering dropping out of the 2024 race and endorsing former President Donald Trump, his running mate Nicole Shanahan said in an interview Tuesday. She framed the decision as an effort to reduce "the risk" of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming president, arguing Kennedy pulls more votes from Trump than from Harris. When asked about the role Kennedy could play in a future Trump administration, Shanahan speculated that her running mate may be open to taking a role as secretary of health and human services. Trump said Tuesday he would "certainly" be open to Kennedy playing a role in his administration. This comes as new filings also show Kennedy is facing dwindling campaign resources and nearly $3.5 million in outstanding debts.

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Walz's gaffe factory

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's own words are tripping him up as he transitions to the national stage.

• To close observers back home, his tendency to misspeak or make inaccurate or inconsistent public comments sounds very familiar, writes Axios Twin Cities co-author Torey Van Oot, who's covered Walz for years.

Why it matters: Walz's rise from a largely under-the-radar governor to a vice presidential candidate has put the Minnesota Democrat's record and statements under new, intensified scrutiny.

• Walz family members said this week their efforts to start a family were not aided by IVF, as previous statements and coverage indicated. They instead used IUI, also known as artificial insemination.
• Walz has been criticized this month for misstating his military rank at retirement and saying he carried weapons of war "in war."
• He's also faced a fresh news cycle over the repeated false statements his 2006 congressional campaign made about his 1995 arrest on suspicion of driving under the influence.

The campaign has since updated online references to his rank at retirement and said he "misspoke" at a 2018 event in which he referenced carrying weapons of war "in war," despite never being deployed to a war zone.

• In 2018, during his first run for governor, he acknowledged the DUI arrest prompted him to give up alcohol.
• Walz was "using commonly understood shorthand for fertility treatments" when he previously discussed IVF, Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg told Axios.

Zoom in: In the midst of the 2020 uprising over the police killing of George Floyd, Walz was one of several lawmakers who had to walk back unsubstantiated claims that the vast majority of the looting and burning was done by people from "outside" of Minnesota.

• When asked in a 2022 interview about the impact pandemic school closures had on Minnesota kids, he said "over 80% of our students missed less than 10 days of in-class learning." Many schools were in remote learning mode into 2021.
• In March of 2022, he told Axios that his office would soon release a COVID "after-action" report as a "playbook for future administrations and future Minnesotans." Aides later walked that back.
• In May of this year, he told reporters he had been texting late into the night about an infrastructure spending deal. His spokesperson later said the governor misspoke and that such texts didn't exist.

Between the lines: Former President Trump is such a fountain of exaggerations and mistruths that media outlets have built fact-checking efforts around covering him.

Walz's spokesperson did not respond to Axios' requests for comment by deadline.

• The governor has previously pushed back on attacks targeting his time in the Guard, saying he is "damn proud of my service to this country."

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🗳️ Axios polling: Walz authenticity

Vice President Harris is getting a bigger boost from picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate than former President Trump has gotten from Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Axios' Margaret Talev writes from two new polls.

• Why it matters: Running mates don't usually determine presidential elections, but this race has enough twists to test that norm.

📊 By the numbers: In the Axios Vibes survey, Walz outperformed Vance on:

1. "Has an authentic connection to everyday Americans" (43% to 35% overall ... 36% to 29% with independents).
2. "Understands the challenges in your community" (39% to 33% overall ... 32% to 27% with independents).
3. "Understands the issues affecting rural and small-town America" (41% to 35% overall ... 35% to 29% with independents).
4. "Feels and talks like someone from a small town" (39% to 34% overall ... 35% to 27% with independents).

Keep reading.

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🛒 Inside Harris' price-gouging policy

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

One of Kamala Harris' most controversial policy proposals is a ban on grocery price gouging. Critics are conflating the idea with Soviet-style price controls and calling the plan "Kamunism." Why it matters: If banning price gouging is communist, then the U.S. went Marxist long ago. Most of us live in states that already have bans in place, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Harris hasn't provided much detail. That's led to wild speculation about what the plan could mean, including opinion pieces expressing fears that retailers won't be able to, say, set the price of a gallon of milk, and that it would lead to widespread shortages, black markets and hoarding. But that's just not how anti-price gouging policies work in the U.S. Nor does it line up with the language in a draft bill banning price gouging nationally, sponsored by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). That bill largely mirrors state laws. Some experts are pointing to the legislation as close to what a Harris administration would propose. Keep reading ...

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Trump speaks from behind bulletproof glass at first outdoor rally since his attempted assassination

ASHEBORO, N.C. (AP) — At his first outdoor rally since last month’s attempted assassination, Donald Trump spoke from behind bulletproof glass Wednesday in North Carolina at an event focused on national security. On politics, he called his predecessor Barack Obama “nasty” for his comments the night before at the Democratic National Convention.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-vance-north-carolina-60de08931c1a964e8e1fb21d3778d35e?

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🗳️ RFK eyes endgame

Data: FiveThirtyEight. Chart: Axios Visuals RFK Jr. appears set to transition from X-factor to ex-candidate — a dramatic descent for what had once seemed a historically consequential third-party candidacy, Axios' Avery Lotz, Dave Lawler and Erin Doherty write. Why it matters: Kennedy has said he'll address his "path forward" in a speech tomorrow. Multiple outlets have reported he'll drop out and endorse former President Trump. Kennedy consistently polled around 10% while running against two historically unpopular candidates — Trump and President Biden — with considerably higher numbers in some swing state polls. But Vice President Harris' entry into the race took the wind out of his sails. Kennedy exiting the race would almost certainly help Trump, who tends to perform worse in polls when third-party candidates are included. 🔭 Zoom in: Kennedy's campaign is now down to around 5% in the polls (charted above) and burning through scarce cash. Running mate Nicole Shanahan said Wednesday that the ticket could either hold on and hope to win 5% or "walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump." Trump told CNN that he would "probably" bring Kennedy into his administration if he wins. 🔮 What's next: Kennedy plans to address the nation tomorrow "about the present historical moment and his path forward" from Phoenix, where Trump is also hosting an event.

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💬 Latinos say Harris is better on border security

Vice President Kamala Harris is performing better or about the same as President Biden among Latinos on how she'll tackle border security, according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.

Why it matters: Attacks from former President Trump on Harris' role in border security as a member of the Biden administration don't seem to have affected her among Latino voters so far.

By the numbers: Nearly half of all Latinos in the poll (49%) think presumptive Democratic nominee Harris is better on border security than Biden, the survey found.

• Only 19% believe she's about the same, and 27% say she'd be worse.
• Among Latino voters, 55% say Harris is better or about the same as Biden on border security, compared to 39% who say she'll be just as bad or worse.

Zoom in: Border security ranked only eighth among top concerns for Latino voters, according to the poll.

• The top three issues for Latino voters were inflation (47%), housing affordability (24%) and jobs/wages (23%).
• Just 19% of surveyed Latinos ranked border security as the country's most critical issue.

What they're saying: Despite being part of the Biden administration, Harris is starting with a clean slate, John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll, told Axios' Sara Goo on Tuesday at an Axios Live event in Chicago. The poll is not associated with the vice president.

• Gerzema says half or more Latino voters think Harris to be as good or better than Biden at providing a vision for the future.
• "She's got the benefit of the doubt and she's in a strong spot to start."

Go deeper

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RFJ Jr. pulls back

Image: Arizona Secretary of State

RFK Jr. filed paperwork to withdraw from the ballot in Arizona late last night — just before today's scheduled announcement in Phoenix, in which he's expected to end his campaign, Axios' Jeremy Duda and Kelly Tyko. Why it matters: Former President Trump, who's holding his own rally in suburban Phoenix, said he'll be joined by a "special guest." The twin announcements fueled speculation Kennedy will end his campaign and endorse Trump. In an interview on Fox News last night, Trump said of a Kennedy endorsement: "It's possible we will be meeting tomorrow and we'll be discussing it." Between the lines: Kennedy's momentum and poll numbers have slipped since President Biden dropped out just over a month ago. Close Trump allies have quietly lobbied Kennedy to drop out of the race and support the Republican nominee, AP reports. Trump told CNN on Tuesday that he would "love" an endorsement from Kennedy, whom he called a "brilliant guy." Trump also said he'd "certainly" be open to Kennedy playing a role in his administration if Kennedy dropped out and endorsed him.

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RFK bows out

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s suspension of his campaign and endorsement of former President Trump — announced this afternoon — won't help the Republican as much as the moves would have earlier, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

• Kennedy averaged 15.5% in general election polls on July 1, per Nate Silver's model. Now Kennedy is around 4%.

Why it matters: Kennedy's plunging relevancy, and bizarre news cycles, raise doubts about how many votes he can really move to Trump's column.

⚡ The latest: Kennedy said he's suspending, not ending, his independent presidential campaign — and will seek to remove his name from battleground-state ballots.

• His move followed conversations with Trump.

📊 Polling models predict a modest change following Kennedy's departure.

• According to FiveThirtyEight's G. Elliott Morris, Harris led Trump in their model by 3.3 percentage points earlier this week in a race with Kennedy. Without Kennedy, Harris led by 3.1 points.

🔮 What's next: Look for Dems to highlight Trump's new Kennedy alliance as a sign of weakness.

• A DNC memo said today: "Like RFK Jr., Donald Trump is at a low point and acting out of desperation."

Go deeper.

 

Highlights from Election 2024: RFK Jr. says he is suspending, not ending his campaign. His campaign says he ‘has not endorsed Trump’

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced he is suspending, not ending, his campaign for president and will seek to remove his name from the ballot in battleground states because he believes his presence in the race would help Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.

https://apnews.com/live/updates-democratic-national-convention-harris-walz?

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Harris doesn't take the bait

CHICAGO — Vice President Harris tapped into her family's immigrant story and ties to civil rights during her acceptance speech — but didn't dwell on race, Axios' Russell Contreras and Delano Massey write.

• Why it matters: Harris, the first woman of color who's a major-party presidential nominee, hasn't taken the bait as former President Trump repeatedly questioned her intelligence and mispronounced her name.

Instead, she is reminding Americans that her family's immigration story — her father was born in Jamaica, her mother in India — is much like many of theirs.

• Trump's campaign has leaned into racially provocative messaging as it has sought to stem the momentum Harris has brought to Democrats.
• The campaign recently posted a message suggesting that a Harris presidency would turn white suburbia into places overrun by migrants from Africa.

So far, Harris has let other Democrats — and some Republicans — call out the former president for his remarks.

• Her speech at the Democratic convention was more aspirational than confrontational — touching on a biracial upbringing that celebrated the Civil Rights Movement and jazz by Black artists. She framed her "unexpected" candidacy as a chance for the nation to reset from old battles.

🔍 Between the lines: Harris' brush-off of Trump's racist attacks, while highlighting the Civil Rights Movement, is a way of emphasizing something most Americans agree on, Cynthia Duarte, director of the Sarah W. Heath Center for Equality and Justice at California Lutheran University, tells Axios.

• "It was safe," Duarte said of Harris' speech. "It was real. It was true. She's not espousing radical politics."

Duarte said Harris used "signals" in her convention speech to communities of color, including referencing jazz legend Miles Davis and NAACP lawyer Thurgood Marshall.

• Harris twice used the word "self-determination" — to describe her parents' marriage as well as the plight of Palestinians.

💰 Breaking: The hour following Vice President Harris' convention speech was the campaign's best fundraising hour since launch day, Harris-Walz Campaign Chair Jen O'Malley Dillon said in a memo this morning.

• The campaign has raised $540 million since Harris launched her candidacy 35 days ago, which the campaign says is "the most ever for any presidential campaign in this time span."

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Trump's economic gamble

Former President Trump is talking down the economy like his election depends on it.

• It might, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

Why it matters: For the next 71 days, Republicans will work to convince voters their wallets are still hurting.

• The risk for Trump is that his doom-and-gloom approach becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: If he wins, he'd inherit an economy that's slowing down — and would be harder to speed up with words alone.

🖼️ The big picture: The former president is seizing on every negative bit of economic news to argue the economy is worse than the Biden administration says.

• Harris is doing the opposite, and grabbing onto any good news. It's a cherry-picking battle.

📊 State of play: Harris has an optimistic view of the economy. Like President Biden, she celebrates a low 4.3% unemployment rate, while acknowledging prices are too high.

• Trump falsely claimed last week that the Biden administration manipulated jobs data after a standard, scheduled revision showed the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated.
• Trump was wrong on why, and how, the new numbers were released. But the labor market is cooling — news Trump wants to drive home.

⏪ Flashback: In presidential campaigns, it's standard practice for the challengers to highlight bad economic data and stoke consumer concerns.

• While challenging Trump four years ago, Biden downplayed big jobs reports.

 

⚡ Harris' 71-day plan

Vice President Harris' strategy for the 71-day sprint is built partly around trying to outwork former President Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.

• Why it matters: Harris is packing her campaign schedule this week, starting with a bus tour in southern Georgia. She'll also sit for her first interview as a presidential candidate, and ramp up preparations for her Sept. 10 debate against Trump.

🔭 What we're watching: Harris aides have been devising a debate strategy for what they expect will be a torrent of falsehoods from the former president during their ABC faceoff 15 days from now.

• The vice president, who held a mock debate at Howard University before the Democratic convention, plans to do several more.
• Aides helping her prepare include policy advisers Brian Nelson and Rohini Kosoglu, and Harris' White House and campaign chiefs of staff, Lorraine Voles and Sheila Nix.

🐘 The other side: Trump suggested on his Truth Social platform last night that he may try to get out of the ABC debate:

• "I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl's(K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?"

Trump, picking up his pace, announced events this week in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

[phkrause]

💰 Donor dilemma: "A governance nightmare"

Juleanna Glover — CEO of Ridgely Walsh, a corporate consultancy, and former adviser to a who's-who of establishment Republicans — writes for The New York Times this morning:

"Anyone who has spent time reviewing Donald Trump's campaign spending reports would quickly conclude they're a governance nightmare. There is so little disclosure about what happened to the billions raised in 2020 and 2024 that donors (and maybe even the former president himself) can't possibly know how it was spent. ... [M]uch of the money donated to the Trump campaign went into a legal and financial black hole reportedly controlled by Trump family members and close associates."

The intrigue: "Donors should demand more information about how their money is spent," Glover writes.

• "But that would most likely offend the Trump family and confidants running the campaign. And the whole point of donating to Mr. Trump is to get on his good side."

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