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⏱️ Mapped: 2020's fastest election calls
 
A cartogram categorizing the time from when polls closed in a state to AP calling a winner for that state in the 2020 presidential election. 31 states had their races called within one hour of polls closing, 34 took up to 24 hours, Pennsylvania and Nevada took 3.5 days and 3 states (Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina) were not called for more than 5 days after polls closed.
Data: AP, Politico. Cartogram: Jacque Schrag/Axios

If 2020 is our guide, the 2024 presidential election likely won't be decided on Election Day, Axios' Shane Savitsky writes.

  • The AP called 26 states instantly as their polls closed, and another five within an hour.

The Pennsylvania call in Biden's favor — over 87 hours after polls closed — decided the race. The call for Nevada came about 50 minutes later.

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The shallow, phallocentric politics of Donald Trump

In all fairness, the latest installment of our phallocentric presidential politics began with Barack Obama’s taunt of Donald Trump’s fragile manhood at the Democratic National Convention last summer.

https://penncapital-star.com/commentary/the-shallow-phallocentric-politics-of-donald-trump/?

🎙️ Trump-Rogan brofest

Joe Rogan gave former President Trump such a warm welcome to his podcast studio in Austin yesterday that Trump extended the taping to three straight hours, delaying an evening Michigan rally so long that hundreds of people left.

  • Why it matters: Younger men are a key lane of Trump's road to the White House. Rogan's heavily male audience heard a long-play version of Trump and his meandering "weave" — open to life on Mars, but skeptical of polls.

"Your weave is getting wide," Rogan said at one point, trying unsuccessfully to redirect the conversation to tariffs, The Washington Post notes (gift link).

  • Trump repeated his view that "the enemy from within" poses a greater threat to the U.S. than North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un: "We had no problem with him ... I say it to people: We have a bigger problem, in my opinion, with the enemy from within."

Other takeaways, via the N.Y. Times (gift link😞

  • 💰 Trump, during a Bronx barber shop interview shown on "Fox & Friends" this week, flirted with the idea of eliminating the federal income tax. Rogan: "Did you just float out the idea of getting rid of income taxes and replacing it with tariffs? ... Were we serious about that?" Trump: "Yeah, sure ... Why not?" He reiterated praise for the tariffs views of President William McKinley, who served 1897-1901.
  • 🛸 "There's no reason not to think that Mars and all these planets don't have life," Trump said. Rogan corrected him: "We've had probes there, and rovers, and I don't think there's any life there." Trump persisted: "Maybe it's life that we don't know about."
  • 📊 "You know how polls are done?" Trump asked. "I'm going to get myself in trouble. So I really don't believe too much in them."

YouTube of the 3-hour podcast.

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🚌 Mapping the campaign trail
 
Two chloropleth maps showing the number of campaign visits to each state by presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris has visited 12 states, with the most visits being to Pennsylvania (13), Michigan (7) and Wisconsin (6). Trump has visited 15 states, with his most visited being Pennsylvania (11), Michigan (9) and North Carolina (7).
Data: Axios research. Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

Vice President Harris and former President Trump have made a combined 30 visits to Pennsylvania and Michigan since August — and a grand total of zero to 36 non-swing states, Axios' Dave Lawler reports.

  • Why it matters: Thanks to the Electoral College, presidential campaigns run through only a handful of states.

🧮 By the numbers: Since Harris formally became the Democratic nominee on Aug. 5, she's visited Pennsylvania (13 visits) — nearly twice as much as her next most-visited state, Michigan (7).

  • Next come the swing states of Wisconsin (6), Georgia (5), North Carolina (4), Arizona (3) and Nevada (3).
  • She also has visited New York (2) and California (2) for fundraisers, and made her first campaign stop in Texas on Friday for a rally with Beyoncé.

🐘 The other side: Pennsylvania (11) and Michigan (9) also top Trump's list, followed by North Carolina (7).

  • In addition to Wisconsin (5), Georgia (5), Nevada (4) and Arizona (3), Trump has made four swings through his native New York. He'll visit again tomorrow evening for a Madison Square Garden rally. Read the lineup.

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phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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phkrause

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Presidential race

Most voters think former President Donald Trump will not concede if he loses the 2024 presidential election, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, with a sizable minority of his backers saying losing candidates have no obligation to do so. Overall, just 30% of registered voters think Trump will accept the results of the election and concede if he loses, while 73% say that Vice President Kamala Harris would accept an election loss. The poll comes a day after Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, where he doubled down on his promise for a massive deportation program on Day 1 to reverse an “immigrant invasion.” “The United States is an occupied country,” Trump said, as Democrats projected messages on the exterior of the arena, reading “Trump is Unhinged” and “Trump praised Hitler.”

Washington Post

Days after The Washington Post announced it would not endorse a presidential candidate, its billionaire owner remains silent. Jeff Bezos has so far declined to comment, even as his own paper’s journalists reported that he was the one who ultimately spiked the planned endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Many current and former newspaper staffers feel the timing of the announcement was highly suspect and has led them to believe Bezos’s business interests influenced the decision. On Friday, Donald Trump met with executives from Blue Origin, the space exploration company owned by Bezos, hours after the Post announced its decision. The company has a $3.4 billion contract with the federal government to build a new spacecraft to transport astronauts to and from the moon’s surface.

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Inside ‘the weave': How Donald Trump’s rhetoric has grown darker and windier

DULUTH, Ga. (AP) — No scene has dominated U.S. politics since 2015 quite like Donald Trump on stage, waxing on for an hour-plus in front of a chorus of red “Make America Great Again” hats.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-rally-rhetoric-weave-kamala-harris-a4ac05f3c67c80e8536c7ebe0e664866?

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🗳️ The Economist's anti-endorsement

"Presidents do not have to be saints and we hope that a second Trump presidency would avoid disaster," The Economist writes in an editorial endorsing Vice President Harris this morning. "But Mr Trump poses an unacceptable risk to America and the world."

  • "It is hard to imagine Ms Harris being a stellar president, though people can surprise you. But you cannot imagine her bringing about a catastrophe."

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Trump's "enemies within" list
 
Photo illustration of Donald Trump's face fading to reveal a grid of photos of Sundar Pichai, Nancy Pelosi, a poll worker, Jack Smith, Mark Zuckerberg, Mark Milley, Kamala Harris, Fani Willis, Alvin Bragg, Barack Obama, Liz Cheney, and a voter.
 

Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photos: Getty Images

 

Former President Trump has been radically transparent in his pledge to use — and abuse — the power of the presidency to seek retribution against Americans he believes have wronged him, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.

Trump's vague, haphazard speaking style has triggered fierce debate over who falls into that "enemies" group — especially after he floated using the U.S. military against "radical left lunatics."

  • A review of Trump's public remarks reveals a vast catalog of targets for imprisonment, prosecution or other punishment:

Political opponents

  • President Biden: Shortly after his indictment by special counsel Jack Smith last year, Trump threatened to appoint a "real" special prosecutor to "go after" Biden and his family.
  • Vice President Harris: At a rally in Pennsylvania in September, Trump called for his opponent in the presidential race to be "impeached and prosecuted" for the Biden administration's handling of the border.
  • Former President Obama: On Truth Social, Trump has reposted multiple calls for Obama to be arrested and face "military tribunals."
  • Former Speaker Pelosi: Trump has specifically labeled Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) "enemies from within" — and called last month for Pelosi and her husband to be prosecuted for alleged insider trading.
  • Former Rep. Liz Cheney: Trump, appearing with Tucker Carlson last night in Glendale, Ariz., said Cheney is "a radical war hawk. Let's put her with the rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let's see how she feels about it — you know, when the guns are trained on her face." (Video)
  • Retired Gen. Mark Milley: Trump suggested last year that the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff deserved to be executed for back-channeling with Chinese generals.

Media and tech

  • ABC: After being repeatedly fact-checked in his September debate with Harris, Trump demanded that the FCC revoke ABC's broadcasting license. (How it works: "Broadcast networks ... do not actually need a license to produce or publish news content. But the local affiliate stations that carry their broadcasts do require licenses," the N.Y. Times notes.)
  • CBS: Trump called for CBS to lose its license and for "60 Minutes" to be "immediately taken off the air" after accusing the program of deceptively editing an interview with Harris. (CBS response.) He sued the network over this for $10 billion yesterday.
  • NBC: Trump called last year for NBC parent company Comcast to be investigated for treason because of its coverage of his legal troubles.
  • Google: After baselessly accusing the search giant of "only revealing and displaying bad stories" about him, Trump declared on Truth Social that he "will request their prosecution, at the maximum levels, when I win."
  • Mark Zuckerberg: In his new "Save America" coffee table book, Trump accuses the Meta CEO of meddling in the 2020 election and writes: "We are watching him closely, and if he does anything illegal this time he will spend the rest of his life in prison."

Article continues below.

ps:Imagine that? He has an enemies list!! They are people that are political opponents and nothing else!! What other president has ever had an enemies list??????????

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🔎 Part 2: Trump's list

Former President Trump's unofficial enemies list, culled from public statements, includes private citizens, Axios' Zachary Basu writes:

  • Election workers: Trump recently delivered a wide-ranging threat to imprison "Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials" who engage in "unscrupulous behavior."
  • Election protesters: Trump has suggested deploying the National Guard or even the U.S. military against "radical left lunatics" who cause chaos around the election.
  • Pro-Palestinian protesters: Trump has told donors he'll crush pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses and deport "pro-Hamas radicals," despite the fact that many protesters are U.S. citizens.
  • Supreme Court critics: "These people should be put in jail the way they talk about our judges and our justices, trying to get them to sway their vote, sway their decision," Trump said at a rally in September.

Prosecutors and bureaucrats

Trump's desire for revenge burns hot for those involved in his four criminal cases and the litany of investigations he has faced over the past eight years:

P.S. This list isn't comprehensive. An NPR analysis found Trump has made more than 100 threats since 2022 to go after perceived enemies.

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Trump's Madison Square Garden rally had around 20,000 attendees | Fact check

The claim: Nearly 200,000 people attended Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally

"Almost 200,000 people in MSG!!!" reads the caption on the post.

Our rating: False

Madison Square Garden’s capacity for the event was less than 20,000 people, several news outlets reported. Its maximum capacity is 21,000, according to a legal filing by the company that owns the venue.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/10/31/around-20000-people-attended-trumps-nyc-rally-fact-check/75953657007/?

Trump and Harris both support a bigger child tax credit. But which families should get it?

WASHINGTON (AP) — Never before in a presidential election cycle has there been so much discussion of the child tax credit — a tool many Democrats and Republicans have endorsed as a way to lift children and young families out of poverty.

https://apnews.com/article/child-tax-credit-poverty-cc423366a1a6f2299fb23ed169045b7b?

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Follow the money

Harris and Trump have ramped up their outreach efforts in the final weeks of the 2024 race to attract both small-dollar donors and wealthy investors. Harris' political operation has raised $1 billion since entering the race in late July, with the help of targeted messaging on social media and celebrity endorsements. Trump's team announced collecting roughly $430 million jointly with the Republican Party between July and September. Outside super PACs are also helping Trump to bridge the financial gap. Third-quarter filings show that Elon Musk and other billionaires have plowed tens of millions of dollars into this year's elections to boost Trump's White House bid.

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Harris assails Trump for saying Liz Cheney should have rifles ‘shooting at her’

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Kamala Harris said Friday it was “disqualifying” for Donald Trump to say former Rep. Liz Cheney, one of the former president’s most prominent Republican critics, should have rifles “shooting at her” to see how she feels about sending troops to fight.

https://apnews.com/article/election-trump-cheney-war-hawk-14e2037b4fd8d22acf64c8b888ce296d?

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Trump more than ever mixes anger, fear, and insults to stir supporters, say researchers

WASHINGTON — Before a capacity crowd at Madison Square Garden late last month, former President Donald Trump bellowed that the United States is “occupied” by illegal immigrants and that he will “rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered.”

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/11/03/trump-more-than-ever-mixes-anger-fear-and-insults-to-stir-supporters-say-researchers/?

ps:That's all he knows how to do!!

Bookman: Puerto Rico insult at Trump NYC rally latest example of new crudity in politics

Family responsibilities have put me on the road a lot in recent weeks, traveling on the highways and byways of America. This country — my country, your country — is changing.

https://georgiarecorder.com/2024/10/29/bookman-puerto-rico-insult-at-trump-nyc-rally-latest-example-of-new-crudity-in-politics/?

ps:Again that's all he knows how to do!!!!!

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CEOs hedge for Trump
 
Illustration of a briefcase behind sandbags.
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

In meetings, on calls and in public moves, CEOs are steeling themselves and their companies for the possibility of four more years of former President Trump.

  • Why it matters: Trump is keeping a list of CEOs and corporations he believes have wronged him or backed his rivals. Business leaders wary of retribution have been reaching out and playing nice, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.

"If you're somebody who has endorsed Harris, and we've never heard from you at any point until after the election, you've got an uphill battle," a Trump adviser told The Washington Post.

🔎 Between the lines: While some CEOs likely approve of Trump's tax-slashing policies, U.S. business leaders have drifted left overall over the past two decades.

  • Just one CEO in the Fortune 100 has publicly endorsed Trump this cycle: Elon Musk.
  • But while some CEOs distanced themselves from Trump in the past over events like Charlottesville and Jan. 6, few seem prepared to start a potential second Trump presidency on bad terms.

📱 Trump has had phone calls recently with Apple CEO Tim Cook and Google CEO Sundar Pichai.

  • He also had a recent conversation with Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, CNN reports. And he spoke with the executives of Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' space company, according to AP.
  • Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg spoke to Trump over the summer after he survived his first assassination attempt. The two have had a fractious relationship, but Zuckerberg described Trump's response to that attack as "badass."

🎰 Trump trade: Wall Street is betting on a Trump win.

  • Hedge fund bosses are directing investments toward stocks that are expected to fare better in a Republican administration, like defense, oil and crypto, Politico reports.

💡 Between the lines: CEOs often reach out to both candidates as a courtesy, "especially in the 12th hour," Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of the Yale School of Management tells Axios.

  • The stakes are higher this time around, as Trump has demonstrated that he'll go after business leaders on his bad side.

🥊 Reality check: Business leaders are calling Trump. But he's still seeing the lowest level of financial contributions from Corporate America in a century, Sonnenfeld says.

  • "The Republican candidate has always enjoyed the public and financial support of about half of the Fortune 100, or the biggest companies of the time," Sonnenfeld says. "We've never had something like this, where it hit a wall in 2016 and never came back."

😳 Trump's high anxiety

Behind the scenes, former President Trump is anxious, asking more questions about his status and demanding more work from his aides amid their efforts to project hyper-confidence, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

  • Why it matters: Trump's restlessness has helped shape his closing strategy, including media stunts, frenetic travel and unorthodox rally locations.

Trump's anxiety is evident in late-night and early-morning calls in which he peppers aides with questions on how things are going — and whether they think he'll win.

  • His restlessness is shared by others in his party. Some conservatives are sounding alarms about what they see as disappointing turnout among men in early voting. Polls suggest most male voters will support Trump and most women voters are likely to back Vice President Harris.

"Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It's that simple," Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk posted on X.

  • "This is a concern, and we encourage men to vote early if they can and on Election Day if they can't," Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republican Club told Axios via text. "Men need to swamp the polls."

🖼️ The big picture: Trump's final stretch has been filled with attention-getting stops, some of which he's personally requested.

  • The campaign spent more than $1 million to fulfill Trump's dream of holding a rally at Madison Square Garden, which dominated headlines for days because of racist and sexist jokes by warmup speakers.
  • Trump, a germaphobe, donned a bright orange and yellow safety vest and hopped into a garbage truck to highlight a gaffe by President Biden, who seemed to suggest Trump supporters are "garbage."

🗑️ The intrigue: After Trump's stunt with the Loadmaster truck in Green Bay, Wis., campaign aides convinced him to keep wearing the safety vest during a rally speech by telling him he looks skinny in it, he revealed on stage.

  • Trump has made trips to Aurora, Colo., and Albuquerque, N.M. — not because his team thinks he'll win Colorado or New Mexico, but because he liked the backdrops to talk about illegal immigration.

What they're saying: "President Trump and his campaign are solely focused on victory — that is why he has out-worked Kamala Harris every single day for months, and will end the campaign with over a dozen stops in four days," Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung said.

🗳️ Make-or-break Detroit

DETROIT — Turnout among Black voters in a handful of cities like Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Charlotte could swing Tuesday's election — and Vice President Harris is focusing her closing push accordingly, Axios' Delano Massey and Joe Guillen report.

  • Why it matters: Grassroots organizers tell Axios voter apathy and disinformation might dampen support, particularly among young Black men. But if Black turnout comes in higher than expected, former President Trump's path to victory will get a lot narrower.

🛬 Harris is campaigning in Atlanta and Charlotte today, and in Detroit, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia before Tuesday.

  • "For Black voters, this isn't about persuasion at this point," says Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC. "It's about turnout — getting those people who are saying, 'I don't know if I'm going to vote'' to show up to the polls."

Zoom in: Detroit is a powerful example of concentrated Black voting power in a critical swing state.

  • One metric to watch: whether turnout in the city exceeds 50%.

👀 It surpassed that mark in 2020 (51%), 2012 (51%) and 2008 (53%) — all presidential elections in which the Democratic candidate won Michigan.

  • In 2016, when Trump won Michigan and the election, Detroit's turnout was 49%.
  • On Thursday, City Clerk Janice Winfrey projected Detroit's turnout at 51%-55%, based on early voting and absentee ballot numbers.

Share this story.

🧠 Go deeper: "Don't Buy the Trump Camp's Spin," Matt Bennett and Jim Kessler — co-founders of Third Way, a center-left advocacy group — write on The Bulwark. They say Harris' campaign enters "this final countdown feeling hopeful, and that hope is well justified," with "a superior ground game":

  • "The Harris forces have a strong, organized, and enthusiastic get-out-the-vote effort run by professional staff and populated by motivated volunteers."

Keep reading.

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Trump Media Outsourced Jobs to Mexico Even as Trump Pushes “America First”

Former President Donald Trump’s social media company outsourced jobs to workers in Mexico even as Trump publicly railed against outsourcing on the campaign trail and threatened heavy tariffs on companies that send jobs south of the border.

https://www.propublica.org/article/donald-trump-media-outsourced-jobs-mexico-truth-social?

ps:As per usual he says one thing and does another!!

Trump Says He’ll Fight for Working-Class Americans. His First Presidency Suggests He Won’t.

When Donald Trump was president, he repeatedly tried to raise the rent on at least 4 million of the poorest people in this country, many of them elderly or disabled. He proposed to cut the federal disability benefits of a quarter-million low-income children, on the grounds that someone else in their family was already receiving benefits. He attempted to put in place a requirement that poor parents cooperate with child support enforcement, including by having single mothers disclose their sexual histories, before they and their children could receive food assistance.

https://www.propublica.org/article/donald-trump-agenda-working-class?

ps:What a pitiful human!!

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Internal email: Trump preps for either outcome
 
A line chart that tracks daily betting prices for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from Aug. 5 to Nov. 3, 2024. Harris peaked at $0.59 on Aug. 11, while Trump reached $0.62 on Oct. 25. Harris is currently at $0.53, with Trump at $0.51.
Data: PredictIt. Chart: Axios Visuals

Behind the bluster, former President Trump's campaign is preparing staff members to wind down the operation while privately acknowledging that Trump could lose Tuesday's election, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

  • Why it matters: It's unusual for Trump or his campaign to portray anything but rosy scenarios. But an email to staff on Friday offered a clear-eyed view of what could happen in this coin-flip election.

The internal "Donald J. Trump Administrative Update," from co-campaign manager Susie Wiles, outlines post-election plans. It uses the phrases "should we be victorious," "regardless of the outcome of the election" and "God willing" — acknowledging that the race may or may not turn out in Trump's favor.

  • The matter-of-fact email comes as the Trump campaign is publicly projecting confidence, and promoting any polls that show Trump defeating Vice President Harris handily.

Trump himself has been quick to belittle unfavorable polls and has vowed that the only way he could lose is if Democrats cheat. He has laid the groundwork for legal challenges if things don't go his way.

  • But even he is acknowledging he could lose. Trump told ABC's Jonathan Karl in a phone conversation yesterday that he expects to win, but added when asked if there's any way he could lose: "Yeah, I guess, you know ... I guess you could lose, can lose. I mean, that happens, right?"
  • "But I think I have a pretty substantial lead," Trump added. "But, you could say, yeah, yeah, you could lose. Bad things could happen. You know, things happen, but it's going to be interesting."

🔎 Between the lines: Much of Wiles' email focused on the nuts and bolts of ending Trump's campaign apparatus — for good, or to become part of Trump's presidential transition and inauguration teams.

  • "Regardless of the outcome of the election, November 30 will be your last day on payroll."
  • "In the event President Trump and Senator [JD] Vance are elected," Wiles wrote, many campaign staffers will be assigned to either "the official Trump-Vance Transition, or the Presidential Inaugural Committee."
  • The Trump campaign's headquarters in West Palm Beach, Fla., will be reconfigured for the transition and inaugural teams, Wiles writes — "God willing."
  • "Should we be victorious," Wiles writes, the reconfigured office space will be available next week.

Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios: "As she has every step of this campaign, Susie Wiles is managing a team of professionals, and ensuring Team Trump is taking the necessary steps to prepare for a successful transition back to the White House following President Trump's victory on Tuesday."

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🏁 Campaign's last full day

Both campaigns have cemented their plans for the race's final 36 hours, including election night:

  • Vice President Harris will hold her watch party at Howard University in D.C., her alma mater.
  • Former President Trump will hold an election night event at Mar-a-Lago after voting in Palm Beach earlier in the day.

Harris has four events on her schedule in Pennsylvania today, making a last-minute play in the most likely Electoral College tipping point.

  • She'll hold early events in Scranton and Allentown before attending star-studded rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia that are expected to include Katy Perry, Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

Trump is campaigning today in Raleigh, N.C.; Reading and Pittsburgh, Pa.; and Grand Rapids, Mich.

🧮 By the numbers: The Harris campaign said that more than 90,000 volunteers knocked on over 3 million doors across the seven battleground states during the election's final weekend, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

👀 Zoom out: Trump delivered a dark speech laced with extreme rhetoric during his rally yesterday at an airport in Lititz, Pa., saying:

  • He "shouldn't have left" the White House after the 2020 election.
  • He wouldn't mind if somebody shot at the press, pointing to an opening in the bulletproof glass that now surrounds him at outdoor events. "To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news, and I don't mind that so much."
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Lead stories of today's N.Y. TimesWashington Post (gift links)

🎤 Last evening in East Lansing, Mich., for the first time at a rally since Vice President Harris moved to the top of the ticket, she didn't mention Trump by name. "Closing fully positive," a top aide told me.

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Presidential race

With just one day remaining before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will deliver their contrasting final pitches to voters in key battleground states that could determine who wins the presidency. Trump has invoked dark rhetoric in his final days on the campaign trail, saying that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after he lost the 2020 election. Harris, meanwhile, has is reaching out to Michigan’s significant Arab American community by pledging to do everything in her power to end the war in Gaza if elected. Harris will spend her final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania, with rallies in Allentown, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Trump will be in three battleground states, holding events in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

 

Trump's two futures
 
Photo illustration of Donald Trump standing in between red lines stylized as flag lines, but also as bars.
 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Rebecca Noble and Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

 

Winning the election is effectively former President Trump's get-out-of-jail-free card, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

  • His legal team largely succeeded in delaying his criminal trials until after the election.

🏛️ If Trump wins, those prosecutions will likely be over for good. But if he loses, he could well find himself back in court.

  • Sentencing for his 34 felony convictions in New York is scheduled for Nov. 26 — three weeks from now.
  • More than a third of business fraud convictions in Manhattan over the past decade resulted in incarceration, according to a New York Times analysis (gift link). Even if sentenced to jail, Trump could seek home confinement.

⚖️ What's next: A judge in Washington is still figuring out how much of special counsel Jack Smith's Jan. 6 case, if any, can proceed in light of the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity.

  • An appeals court in Georgia is deciding whether to remove prosecutor Fani Willis from the case against Trump there.

Go deeper.

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Trump takes victory lap

Former President Trump declared victory at his election night party in West Palm Beach, Fla., and hailed his campaign as the "greatest political movement of all time," Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

  • Why it matters: Trump said America's electorate delivered him an "unprecedented mandate."

"This will truly be the golden age of America," Trump said at the Palm Beach County Convention Center, surrounded by members of his family, campaign staff and surrogates.

  • Trump promised to "seal up the borders" and make America safer and more prosperous.
  • He said his campaign "overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible" during his bid for the White House.

Trump thanked Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who mounted an independent presidential bid of his own before throwing his support behind Trump.

  • Trump said of Elon Musk, one of his biggest supporters on the campaign: "A star is born: Elon."

Watch Trump's speech.

👀 Winning recipe
 
A graphic showing a series of charts tracking the vote margin shift in battleground states for the 2024 presidential election. Each state includes a chart comparing vote margins from previous elections and indicates the current leader and the percentage of the expected vote counted.
Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals

Former President Trump is returning to the White House with help from groups that soundly rejected him when he was president: suburban women, independents and young people, Axios' Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight write.

  • Why it matters: By focusing on the economy, illegal immigration and crime, he managed to deny Harris the margins she needed to reassemble the coalition that led President Biden to victory four years ago.

🔭 Zoom in: The shifts among core demographic groups were subtle, but significant.

1. Women: They still largely preferred Harris over Trump — but not with the margins or the level of turnout her campaign needed to win.

  • Harris won roughly 54% of women, according to NBC News and CNN exit polls. Biden took 57% in the same polls four years ago.

2. Young voters: Harris won 52% of 18- to 20-year-olds. But that was down from the 61% who voted for Biden in 2020, according to the AP's VoteCast.

  • Trump won a greater share of the under-30 vote than any Republican presidential candidate since 2008, according to NBC's exit polls.

3. The suburbs: In all-important Pennsylvania, Harris needed to run up the score in suburbs such as Montgomery County, outside of Philadelphia.

  • She led by 22 points with 92% of precincts reporting — off from the 26-point margin Biden had in winning Pennsylvania in 2020.

4. Independents: Harris won 50% of independents — down from Biden's 54% in 2020, according to NBC's exit poll.

  • She also lost ground with voters who described themselves as moderate — 58% compared to the 64% won by Biden.

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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Posted

Harris calls Trump to concede election loss as Biden congratulates both candidates

Vice President Harris conceded Wednesday in the presidential race against President-elect Trump.

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/06/kamala-harris-concedes-election-trump?

Harris concedes and urges her supporters to accept her loss to Trump

In her concession speech, Vice President Kamala Harris urged her supporters to accept her election loss against President-elect Donald Trump.
ps:Imagine that an actual peaceful transfer of power speech!!

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60

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