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🦾 Ina tests AI for translating videos

 
Illustration of a speech bubble that says ¡Hola!
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

The latest generation of AI can do a pretty good job of turning a video shot in one language into another, while largely preserving the voice of the speaker and modifying the lip movements to match the new dialogue, Axios chief tech correspondent Ina Fried writes in her "Prompt" feature.

  • Why it matters: In the short term, the new technology should allow far more videos to be dubbed — and not just subtitled — into other languages. Like many other generative AI technologies, though, it raises a host of longer-term issues around misinformation and job displacement.

Ina writes: I used Lipdub, a free iOS app that debuted this week, to translate a variety of short video clips into Spanish, Dutch, and Japanese.

  • I played around with other options, such as turning a video into pirate or Gen Z speak. They're fun, but I found them neither convincing, nor useful.

The voice sounded like me, but not identical. I speak enough Spanish and Dutch to know that those translations weren't perfect.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Biden wants to move fast on AI safeguards and signs an executive order to address his concerns

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden on Monday signed an ambitious executive order on artificial intelligence that seeks to balance the needs of cutting-edge technology companies with national security and consumer rights, creating an early set of guardrails that could be fortified by legislation and global agreements.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059?

Biden's aggressive AI move

 
Illustration of a hand knocking on an old computer monitor screen
 

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

President Biden's long-awaited executive order on AI, which dropped at 5 a.m. today, requires developers of the most powerful systems to share internal testing data — usually kept private — with the government.

  • Why it matters: This is a significant transparency-boosting step that may not be welcomed by the secretive industry, Axios' Maria Curi and Ashley Gold report.

White House deputy chief of staff Bruce Reed calls the order "the strongest set of actions any government in the world has ever taken on AI safety, security, and trust."

  • "It's the next step in an aggressive strategy to do everything on all fronts to harness the benefits of AI and mitigate the risks," he added.

Biden will sign the order in the East Room this afternoon. Key points:

  • Companies developing AI models that pose serious risks to public health and safety, the economy or national security will have to notify the federal government when training the model and share results of red-team safety tests before making models public.
  • That provision goes beyond voluntary commitments that the White House garnered from AI companies and requires notification in accordance with the Defense Production Act.
  • A senior administration official told reporters on a preview call that the DPA enforcement mechanism wasn't previewed for industry.

Areas included in the order beyond safety and security, per the White House:

  1. Privacy: The government will prioritize supporting the development of privacy tools using cutting edge AI systems.
  2. Equity and civil rights: Landlords, federal benefits program managers and federal contractors will be given guidance to keep algorithms from being used to exacerbate discrimination.
  3. Innovation and competition: Small developers and entrepreneurs will be provided technical assistance and resources to commercialize AI, and the Federal Trade Commission will be encouraged to exercise its authorities to promote competition.

🥊 Reality check: The Biden administration recognizes executive orders can't replace legislation and continues to call on Congress to pass a law governing AI safety.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Countries at a UK summit pledge to tackle AI’s potentially ‘catastrophic’ risks

BLETCHLEY PARK, England (AP) — Delegates from 28 nations, including the U.S. and China, agreed Wednesday to work together to contain the potentially “catastrophic” risks posed by galloping advances in artificial intelligence.

https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-risks-uk-summit-kamala-harris-885d09550b0ad19f7a1cdfbd6e2b910b?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Behind the Curtain: What AI architects fear most

Brace yourself: You will soon need to wonder if what you see — not just what you read — is real across every social media platform, Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write.

  • Why it matters: Open AI and other creators of artificial intelligence technologies are close to releasing tools that make the easy — almost magical — creation of fake videos ubiquitous.

One leading AI architect told us that in private tests, they no longer can distinguish fake from real — which they never thought would be possible so soon.

  • This technology will be available to everyone, including bad international actors, as soon as early 2024.
  • Making matters worse, this will hit when the biggest social platforms have cut the staff policing fake content.

🖼️ The big picture: Just as the 2024 presidential race hits high gear, more people will have more tools to create more misinformation or fake content on more platforms — with less policing. It will make 2020, a hot mess of misinformation, seem like a safe space for sanity.

  • A former top national security official told us Vladimir Putin sees these tools as an easy, low-cost, scalable way to help tear apart Americans.

Yes, the White House and some congressional leaders want regulations to call out real versus fake videos. The top idea: mandating watermarking so it'll be clear what videos are AI-generated.

  • But researchers have tried that. The tech doesn't work yet.

"Of course, it's a worry," said Reid Hoffman, co-creator of LinkedIn and forceful defender of AI.

  • "It's one of the places where AI and amplification intelligence could [produce] a negative outcome," he added.
  • Hoffman argues that open-source models (free for anyone to use) are the biggest threats. He backs and works on only closed models, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, because they can self-police.

Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO of OpenAI, told us: "This is an important near-term risk for the industry to address. We need a combination of responsible model deployment and public awareness."

  • "We also need continued collaboration across the AI industry, including with distribution channels like social media," he added.

Reality check: The best self-policing in the world won't stop the faucet of fake. The sludge will flow. Fast. Furiously.

  • It could get so bad that some AI architects told us they're pushing to speed up the release of powerful new versions so the public can deal with the consequences — and adapt — long before the election.

A senior White House official told us officials' biggest concern is the use of this technology and other AI capabilities to dupe voters, scam consumers on a massive scale and carry out cyberattacks.

  • Another sick use: revenge porn. Most fake video content in early waves of AI misuse is porn.

Keep reading: 5 ways to protect yourself.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🧐 Experts don't trust Big Tech on AI
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: Axios/Generation Lab/Syracuse University. Chart: Axios Visuals

56% of computer science professors at top U.S. research universities surveyed by Axios, Generation Lab and Syracuse University described AI executives as disingenuous in their calls for regulation, Axios' Margaret Talev and Ryan Heath write.

Explore the data ... Read on.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🦾 Axios AI+ Summit: Instagram's new AI filters

Two new generative AI filters will make it easy for Instagram users to easily separate elements of images and make other advanced edits, Ahmad Al-Dahle, V.P. of generative AI at Meta, told Axios' Ina Fried onstage at the inaugural AI+ conference in San Francisco yesterday.

  • Meta first announced plans for the two filters (Backdrop and Restyle) at Meta Connect in September. Al-Dahle says they're rolling out imminently, Axios' Megan Morrone writes.

On safety issues with generative AI, Al-Dahle argued that a closed model is not necessarily safer. (Meta's Llama models are partially open source.)

  • Al-Dahle said Meta's product testing included "thousands of hours trying to expose vulnerabilities in the model."

🔮 What's next: Al-Dahle told Axios that Meta plans to let businesses and creators make their own AIs, bring AI onto their devices and make it more efficient and accessible to more people.

Wave of democratization

Anjney Midha, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, and Sonya Huang, a general partner at Sequoia Capital, told Axios' Kia Kokalitcheva at the summit that there's a big difference between generative AI's current moment and the false dawns of the past.

  • Midha cited an "alchemy" driving innovation and a breathtaking pace of change.

Huang said the generative AI wave has been "decades in the making": Cloud computing, mobile technology and other tech has created the "necessary conditions" for this transformational moment.

  • "[D]emocratizing AI development ... was always a theory because if you grab one of these models, you actually have to train them yourselves and there were only so many people capable of training models," she said.
  • "Now that you can access a GPT … as an API, you've actually democratized AI development for developers. And so now the dream of democratizing AI is finally here."

📱 Watch the summit video.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🤖 Deepfake Fauci fears
Illustration of multiple iterations of a health plus on an x-ray sheet, each showing slight variations.
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

Imagine a deepfake video of Anthony Fauci telling people not to get vaccinated.

  • AI experts are issuing new warnings that tech used to create sophisticated false images, audio and video is getting so good, it'll soon become almost impossible to distinguish fact from fiction.

Why it matters: A RAND-led study found that even those working in science were fooled by messaging in deepfake videos relaying climate information.

  • The more individuals were exposed to deepfakes, the worse they were at identifying them.

This is more evidence of what Jim and I explored in a "Behind the Curtain" column on deepfakes: One leading AI architect told us that in private tests, they no longer can distinguish fake from real. (Read it here.)

The health care industry has a roster of specific new worries, Axios' Tina Reed reports:

  1. False images and audio that appear to come from a trusted source will make it harder to spread accurate health messages and will erode the public's confidence in legitimate sources.
  2. More convincing phishing: Phone calls and messages to patients appearing to come from their health insurer or doctor could be a tool for scammers to steal their financial or health information.
  3. More effective cyberattacks: Similarly, a hacker could enter a hospital's information systems by using artificially or synthetically generated audio of a known individual — such as the hospital's CEO — to call the organization's help desk for a new password.

🦾 The other side: Health care is still very bullish on the upsides of generative AI — even including deepfakes.

Go deeper: "Deepfakes and scientific knowledge dissemination" ...

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🤖 Exclusive poll: "We have a deepfake problem"
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: Data: Axios-Generation Lab-Syracuse University. Chart: Axios Visuals

Nearly every respondent (95%) in a new Axios-Generation Lab-Syracuse University AI Experts Survey described AI's audio and video deepfake capabilities as "advanced," Axios' Margaret Talev reports.

  • 🚨 "This is a really authoritative alarm here: 'Hey, we have a deepfake problem,'" Generation Lab CEO Cyrus Beschloss said.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Behind the Curtain: Myth of AI restraint
Animated illustration of a robot thinking, with ellipses moving inside its thought bubble.
 

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Nearly every high-level Washington meeting, star-studded conference and story about AI centers on one epic question: Can this awesome new power be constrained?

  • It cannot, experts repeatedly and emphatically told Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen.

Why it matters: Lots of people want to roll artificial intelligence out slowly, use it ethically, regulate it wisely. But everyone gets the joke: It defies all human logic and experience to think ethics will trump profit, power, prestige. Never has. Never will.

  • AI pioneer Mustafa Suleyman — co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI, and co-founder of AI giant DeepMind, now part of Google — sounds the alarm in his new book "The Coming Wave," with the sobering Chapter 1: "Containment Is Not Possible."

That's why Sam Altman getting sacked — suddenly and shockingly — should grab your attention. OpenAI — creator of the most popular generative AI tool, ChatGPT — became a battlefield between ethical true believers, who control the board, and the profit-and-progress activators like Altman who ran the company.

  • Altman was quickly scooped up by Microsoft, OpenAI's main sugar daddy, to move faster with a "new advanced AI research team."
  • Open AI's interim CEO is a doom-fearing advocate for slowing the AI race — Twitch co-founder Emmett Shear, who recently warned there's a 5% to 50% chance this new tech ends humanity.

What we're hearing: Few in Silicon Valley think the Shears of the world will win this battle. The dynamics they're battling are too powerful:

  1. Competition between technologists and technology companies to create something with superhuman power inevitably leads to speed and high risk. It's why free competition exists and works.
  2. Even if individuals and companies magically showed never-before-seen restraint and humility, competitive governments and nations won't. China will force us to throw caution to the wind: The only thing worse than superhuman power in our hands is it being in China's ... or Iran's ... or Russia's.
  3. Even if other nations stumbled and America's innovators paused, there are still open-source models that bad actors could exploit.

Read the full column.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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“The Battle For Global AI Dominance”

A battle is brewing in the U.S. Copyright Office over artificial intelligence’s use of copyrighted material — and Big Tech is spending millions to ensure they win.

https://www.levernews.com/the-battle-for-global-ai-dominance/?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🦾 What's next for OpenAI
Illustration of eye emojis with the OpenAI logo in the pupil
 

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

 

There are still big question marks about OpenAI's future, even after Sam Altman's return, Axios' Scott Rosenberg and Ina Fried write.

  • The turmoil at OpenAI will calm down as a new three-man board takes over. But Altman isn't on that board — and Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo, part of the old board majority that fired Altman, is.
  • Altman likely won't be on the board until after the internal investigation into his abrupt firing — and only if it clears him.

🧠 Ultimate authority over OpenAI's fate, which used to rest with six people, now rests with three: D'Angelo; new board chair Bret Taylor, former co-CEO of Salesforce; and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers.

  • It's an all-white-male board deciding the future of a technology that's beset with concerns over bias, misinformation and deepening inequality.

🔮 The bottom line: There will be no pause in AI research and deployment. But OpenAI's near-implosion could reinforce efforts in Washington and abroad to regulate the industry more quickly.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🤖 A scene for history
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Illustration: Hokyoung Kim for The New York Times. Used by kind permission

It was July 2015. AI was the big topic of conversation as Elon Musk and Larry Page, then CEO of Google, sat near a firepit beside a swimming pool during a 44th birthday party for Musk in California wine country, The New York Times writes in the opener of a new series, "The A.I. Race":

"The two billionaires had been friends for more than a decade, and Mr. Musk sometimes joked that he occasionally crashed on Mr. Page's sofa after a night playing video games. But the tone that clear night soon turned contentious as the two debated whether artificial intelligence would ultimately elevate humanity or destroy it."

"As the discussion stretched into the chilly hours, it grew intense," and some of the 30+ partiers leaned in to listen, The Times continues:

"Page, hampered for more than a decade by an unusual ailment in his vocal cords, described his vision of a digital utopia in a whisper. Humans would eventually merge with artificially intelligent machines, he said. One day there would be many kinds of intelligence competing for resources, and the best would win."

Musk said that if that happens, we're doomed: The machines will destroy humanity.

"With a rasp of frustration, Mr. Page insisted his utopia should be pursued. Finally he called Mr. Musk a 'specieist,' a person who favors humans over the digital life-forms of the future."

Keep reading (gift link no paywall.)

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Behind the Curtain: U.S. not ready for robotic, AI world wars
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
The autonomous Roadrunner-M, billed as a "radical new class of recoverable ground-based air defense capability," was unveiled Friday. Photo: Anduril Industries

America's ability to remain the world's most lethal military hinges on two interrelated — and vexing — mysteries, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write.

  • Can soon-to-retire four-star generals truly foresee the awesome power of artificial intelligence in time to break generation-old habits and shift warfare theories?
  • If they do, can they convince the brightest coding minds to chuck lucrative gigs at Google to build AI-powered systems for America faster or better than their rivals in China?

Why it matters: Future wars will be won with Stanford nerds, faster chips, superior computing power and precision robotics on land, sea and air. Experts tell us that because of a lethal combination of congressional myopia and constipated Pentagon buying rules, America isn't mobilizing fast enough to prevail on future battlefields.

  • "We are witnessing an unprecedented fundamental change in the character of war, and our window of opportunity to ensure that we maintain an enduring competitive advantage is closing," retired Army Gen. Mark Milley, who then was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned in a report he wrote shortly before retiring this fall.

What's happening: Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, said at last week's Axios AI+ Summit in Washington that with cutting-edge tech being deployed in Ukraine, a drone is no longer just an uncrewed flying object. It's a "potent software platform" that's a big step toward more automated war.

  • "It's clear that drones and other weapons based on autonomy can replace tanks, artillery and mortars," Schmidt told us in a later interview. "The success of Ukraine and also Russia on the battlefield proves this point."
  • But experts warn the U.S. is still spending too much time and money building aircraft carriers and other outmoded artifacts of analog war, because of the archaic restraints of what the late Senate Armed Services Chair John McCain called the "military-industrial-congressional complex."

Retired Army Gen. David Petraeus — former top commander in Iraq and Afghanistan, and former CIA director, who's author of the new bestseller "Conflict" — told us that tanks, ships and planes must be largely supplanted over time by a massive armada of much cheaper, smaller, uncrewed, algorithmically piloted systems.

  • "Humans will be on the loop rather than in the loop," Petraeus said. "You will have a human at some point say: 'OK, machine. You're free to take action according to the computer program we established for you' — rather than remotely piloting it."

🖼️ The big picture: The answers to those two big questions are being determined now, as military experts sound the alarm about ways the tectonic shift in military power is threatening America in real time. Milley's report, "Strategic Inflection Point," is a 10-page wake-up call.

  • "The American homeland has almost always been a sanctuary during conflict, but this will not be the case in a future war," Milley wrote. "Robust space and cyber capabilities allow adversaries to target critical national infrastructure."
  • Milley is among those warning privately that too many four-star generals — typically in their mid-50s to early 60s — are too old and too connected to conventional warfare to shift fast enough, sources tell us.
  • Army Gen. Erik Kurilla — commander of U.S. Central Command, which includes the Middle East — is seen as the most technologically innovative of the roughly 40 four-stars in the military today.

China — and AI — are the central focus of every future-of-defense conversation. Beijing knows technology alone can help leapfrog America, despite long being outspent by us (though the gap has mostly closed).

  • Take hypersonic missiles. They move so fast that no modern defense system can come close to shooting them down until moments before they hit. China is far ahead of the U.S. in the hypersonic arms race — a potential scary edge in a conflict over Taiwan or beyond.

Quantum technologies — which include ultra-precise sensors and more secure communications — promise to vastly improve military targeting and encryption.

  • Nimble next-gen defense startups are already vying with legacy giants. Anduril Industries — founded by Palmer Luckey, who designed the head-mounted Oculus Rift and sold the technology to Facebook — on Friday unveiled an autonomous weapons platform, Roadrunner, with a portable hangar so compact it looks like an outhouse. (YouTube)

Michèle Flournoy — former undersecretary of defense for policy, and now co-founder of WestExec Advisors — told us that while every branch of the military has an innovation hub, the risk-averse culture means these efforts "are still on the margins of the main acquisition and budget processes."

  • "The Pentagon has gotten very good at tech-scouting and demonstrating and experimenting and prototyping," Flournoy said. "But actually moving things into production at scale has been a challenge."

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🦾 AI helps U.S. in chip race
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
 

Robots at Berkeley Lab in California. Photo: Marilyn Sargent/Berkeley Lab

 

AI could help reduce U.S. dependence on China for critical components of batteries, solar cells and semiconductor chips by fueling development of urgently needed new materials, Axios managing editor Alison Snyder reports.

  • Why it matters: China now dominates the field of materials engineering by several key metrics, including publications, employment and degrees awarded in the field.

Google DeepMind researchers reported last week that a new AI model discovered more than 2.2 million hypothetical materials.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Teen girls are being victimized by deepfake nudes. One family is pushing for more protections

A mother and her 14-year-old daughter are advocating for better protections for victims after AI-generated nude images of the teen and other female classmates were circulated at a high school in New Jersey.

https://apnews.com/article/deepfake-ai-nudes-teen-girls-legislation-b6f44be048b31fe0b430aeee1956ad38?

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🤖 AI's virtual wall
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Rancher Albert Miller walks by an autonomous surveillance tower near his property in Valentine, Texas, last year. Photo: Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The U.S. government is building a "virtual wall" at the southern border by erecting hundreds of high-tech surveillance towers — some of which use AI, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

  • Why it matters: A record number of people have entered the U.S. through the southern border this year.

Although there have been surveillance towers at the border for several years, the new autonomous towers can better detect abnormal activity.

  • The U.S. has installed about 300 different types of surveillance towers from the California coast to the tip of Texas, according to the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a nonprofit that monitors civil liberties in the digital world.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials have praised the autonomous technology as a great asset that helps agents do their jobs, and it has bipartisan support.

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: Electronic Frontier Foundation. Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

How it works: Autonomous surveillance towers contain 360° pan radars and sensors that can scan for miles.

  • The solar-powered towers are outfitted with AI software that distinguishes people from desert animals.
  • Images are fed back to Border Patrol personnel who can deploy agents to the area where activity was detected.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🦾 Bill Gates: AI will supercharge innovation
Bill Gates with thought bubbles that resemble Earth
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Bill Gates used his annual year-end letter to predict a massive wave of AI innovation beginning in 2024.

  • "The work that will be done over the next year is setting the stage for a massive technology boom later this decade," Gates writes.

Why it matters: Gates draws on his vast experience with technological disruption to urge us to keep the faith in AI's potential. But Gates admits that the new technology sometimes confuses even him, Axios' Ryan Heath writes.

The timeline: Gates says we're 18–24 months away from widespread AI adoption in the U.S., and three years away in Africa.

🥊 Reality check: "I thought I would use AI tools for the foundation's strategy reviews this year, which require reading hundreds of pages of briefing materials," Gates admitted, but "I ended up preparing for them the same way I always do."

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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The year AI gets real
Animated illustration of a robot tightening and adjusting its necktie, followed by its teeth sparkling.
 

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

In 2024, the AI industry will get serious about delivering results for business and life, moving beyond the hype surrounding the rocket ships of ChatGPT and chipmaker Nvidia.

  • Why it matters: Everyone using AI will be looking for proof that it's making their life or work better, following 2023's surges of enthusiasm and fear, Axios' Ryan Heath and Megan Morrone write.

🖼️ The big picture: The industry's rise this year created a mismatch between AI's sky's-the-limit potential and troublesome realities — hallucinating chatbots, hard-to-obtain GPU chips, potentially huge liabilities around copyright, and concerns about bias and accuracy.

  • Up next: smaller and specialized AI models + more AI tools for mobile devices.
  • Wide deployment of multimodal AI, which works seamlessly with both text and images, will amp up excitement.

🔬 Zoom in:

  • AI at work: For millions of workers, '24 will be the year of the AI copilot. For many others, it could be the year that AI-linked job losses become reality.
  • In daily life: More AI tools will run on phones, transforming our relationships and hobbies as much as business. "[Google's new] Gemini nano is built for this," notes AI analyst Nina Schick.
  • Markets: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives predicts a "new bull market for the tech sector" driven by a 20-25% increase in cloud and AI spending.

The prospect of AI breakthroughs in health generates the most enthusiasm among experts:

  • 2024 should see more early disease detection and more personalized medical treatment plans via AI.
  • AI will enable cancer treatment with fine-tuned versions of drugs, and new combinations of drugs tailored to a patient's individual physiology.

🔮 Marc Succi, a Mass General Brigham radiologist, predicted to Axios that patients will increasingly turn to AI chatbots for medical triage advice — prompting Big Tech companies to go on a health-tech acquisition splurge.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Copyright is new AI battlefield
Illustration of copyright symbols in different styles and colors
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Looming fights over copyright in AI are likely to set the new technology's course in 2024 faster than legislation or regulation.

  • Why it matters: After a year of lawsuits from creators protecting their works from getting gobbled up and repackaged by generative AI tools, the new year could see significant rulings that alter the progress of AI innovation, Axios' Megan Morrone reports.

What's happening: The copyright decisions — over both the use of copyrighted material in the development of AI systems, and the status of works that are created by or with the help of AI — are crucial to the technology's future and could determine winners and losers in the market.

  • The New York Times filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft last week, claiming their AI systems depend on "widescale copying" that constitutes mass copyright infringement.

💬 "Copyright owners have been lining up to take whacks at generative AI like a giant piñata woven out of their work," James Grimmelmann, professor of digital and information law at Cornell, tells Axios. "2024 is likely to be the year we find out whether there is money inside."

  • "If copyright law says that some kinds of AI models are legal and others aren't, it will steer innovation down a path determined not by what uses of AI are beneficial to society but one based on irrelevant technical details of the training process," Grimmelmann adds.

🥊 Reality check: The copyright system has ways to adapt to an AI world.

  • Jerry Levine, general counsel for ContractPodAI, a generative AI tool that helps lawyers analyze legal documents, said that if a chatbot response might violate a copyright, the tool could offer to summarize the text and link to the original, instead of reproducing the entire copyrighted work.

⚠️ Threat level: This is another place the big could get so much bigger. The biggest risk to AI innovation could lie in a ruling that limits generative AI to players with the resources to fight lawsuits and license large amounts of data.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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AI money race
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Data: PitchBook. Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Big tech companies aren't just building AI technology in-house:

  • They're spending big on investing in AI startups, Kia Kokalitcheva writes in Axios Pro Rata's weekend edition.

Why it matters: The big will get so much bigger.

What's happening: With their belief that generative AI is the next big thing, tech giants know that being on the boat is existential.

  • They'll do whatever it takes — whether through their own tech, or via relationships with companies they're backing.

💰 Stunning stat: Last year, investments of more than $18 billion by Microsoft, Google and Amazon — in just three companies — represented two-thirds of the global venture investment into generative AI startups, according to PitchBook data cited by the Financial Times.

  • The investments were in OpenAI (parent of ChatGPT), Anthropic and Inflection, another generative AI startup.
  • That doesn't even include investments made by Salesforce, Databricks, Nvidia and other big players.

Between the lines: These multibillion-dollar investments are often made up of credits for use of the big company's technology (especially cloud computing). So it's not just cash.

🕶️ What we're watching: Reports surfaced recently that two AI giants, OpenAI and Anthropic, are raising new funding at astronomical valuations.

🖼️ The big picture: History is full of incumbents who missed the next technology wave and paid dearly for it.

  • Even these very same tech giants have been late to, or missed entirely, some recent technological shifts. (Mobile technology, we see you!)

Reality check: Traditional venture firms — including Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and General Catalyst — are also aggressively capitalizing AI startups.

The bottom line: Silicon Valley loves a competition.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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AI's "uncomfortable" moment

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told Axios' Ina Fried in an interview at Davos today that the company expects to be "uncomfortable with some of the uses" of its tools.

  • Why it matters: He said the company's future products could give different answers to different users based on their values, preferences and possibly what country they're in.

Altman said that AI is evolving much more rapidly than previous technologies that took Silicon Valley by storm.

  • He added that OpenAI's next big model "will be able to do a lot, lot more" than the existing models can.

🔎 Zoom in: Altman believes future AI products will need to allow "quite a lot of individual customization" — and "that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable."

  • "If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then, no ... that is well out of bounds," Altman said at our Democratization of AI event.
  • "But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with that a different culture might."

🔮 What's next: Altman — speaking at Axios House on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum — said his top priority right now is launching the new model, likely to be called GPT-5.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🇺🇸 Palantir CEO: U.S. eating everyone's lunch

Within 10 years, around 95% of the world's top tech companies will be American thanks to the U.S. lead in AI, Palantir CEO Alex Karp told Axios' Mike Allen in Davos.

  • Why it matters: Karp called the European startup scene "anemic," noting that tech's "real growth and providers are in America."

America's advantage will compound because of the lack of big tech companies in Europe today, he said — handing "almost all the value" of AI to the U.S.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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