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Voting, Voting Rights, Voter Challenges, Elections, Election Rules & Election Fraud_1


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📊 1 big thing: AI election fears

 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: Axios | Morning Consult. Chart: Axios Visuals

Half of Americans expect misinformation spread by AI to affect who wins the 2024 election, Ryan Heath writes from a new Axios | Morning Consult AI Poll.

  • One-third say they'll trust results less because of AI.

Why it matters: We're about to be hit by an onslaught of machine-generated photos, videos and other deceptive campaign material that will make it ever harder to know what's true.

🧮 By the numbers: Our survey of 2,203 U.S. adults finds Americans across ideological lines are more pessimistic (36%) than optimistic (26%) about AI.

  • 53% said misinformation spread by AI will affect who wins in '24. That view was shared across Fox, CNN and MSNBC viewers.

🔎 Between the lines: Supporters of former President Trump were nearly twice as likely as backers of President Biden to say AI would decrease their trust in election results (47% to 27%).

  • Self-identified liberals (21%) were nearly twice as likely to say they have used generative AI for work or education than moderates (11%) or conservatives (12%). That may be tied to age, with 35% of Gen Z but just 3% of Baby Boomers saying so.

🖼️ The big picture: Mistrust of AI reflects U.S. society's lack of trust in tech companies and institutions in general.

  • Eli Yokley, politics analyst at Morning Consult, said concern about AI-driven misinformation is a "political uniter." But he said lack of trust in leaders and institutions "suggests peril for efforts on Capitol Hill to regulate the quickly-budding technology."

🥊 Reality check: Of those who have used AI to complete a task, 64% said AI produced better work than they could on their own.

Breaking ... Exclusive from Axios' Ina Fried: Google pledges $20 million for responsible AI fund.

phkrause

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Under DeSantis, FL has become the bellwether state for voter disenfranchisement

Equal Ground: ‘We are actively working to hold onto democracy as our state is working actively to weaken the rights we have as Floridians’

https://floridaphoenix.com/2023/09/15/under-desantis-fl-has-become-the-bellwether-state-for-voter-disenfranchisement/?

phkrause

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🌊 Dems' special-election streak

 
Illustration of confetti falling on a voting booth.
 

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Democrats secured victory in two state-level special elections last night, extending an impressive winning streak that Biden campaign officials cited today as they appealed to supporters to stop panicking about polls.

  • In Pennsylvania, Democrats defended a one-seat majority in the state House for the fifth time this year, outperforming Biden's 2020 margin in an Allegheny County seat by eight points.
  • In New Hampshire, a Democrat won by 12 points in a district Trump narrowly carried in 2020, putting the party within one seat of ending the GOP's state government trifecta. The Republican who lost, Jim Guzofski, is an election denier who claimed "prophets" told him Trump won in 2020.

Why it matters: Down-ballot, low-turnout state elections aren't necessarily a harbinger for national contests. But the trend is unmistakeable: In 30 special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 11 points, according to a 538 analysis of each seat's base partisanship score.

  • "You can keep talking about polls 14 months out, but this is what I've been looking at all year," tweeted Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina.
  • The analysis doesn't take into account the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, city elections and ballot referendums where Democrats have also dominated — largely by campaigning on abortion rights.

phkrause

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phkrause

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🗳️ Dems flood Virginia with cash

 
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Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin stumps in Dinwiddie County on Sept. 21. Photo: Bill Atkinson/The (Petersburg) Progress-Index via Reuters

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pumping another $1 million into Virginia's high-stakes legislative elections this fall, doubling its investment, Axios' Hans Nichols has learned.

  • Why it matters: "It is the first time a legislature is on the ballot post-Dobbs," DLCC president Heather Williams said, referring to the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe.

For Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), the Nov. 7 election is a chance to show that his brand of conservatism — including a plan for a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions — can appeal to suburban voters in a purple state.

phkrause

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Kamala Harris makes her case for the youth vote in appearance at FIU in Miami

Vice President Kamala Harris told thousands of college students and others in Miami Thursday that the country is witnessing “an intentional full-on attack against hard won freedoms and rights,” and they need to respond by going to the ballot box next year.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2023/09/29/kamala-harris-makes-her-case-for-the-youth-vote-in-appearance-at-fiu-in-miami/?

phkrause

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States that send a mail ballot to every voter really do increase turnout, scholars find

Lately, a rough consensus has emerged among people who study the effects of voting policies: Although they often spark fierce partisan fighting, most changes to voting laws do little to affect overall turnout, much less election results.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2023/10/07/states-that-send-a-mail-ballot-to-every-voter-really-do-increase-turnout-scholars-find/?

phkrause

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🗳️ In real life, GOP pushes early voting

Virginia Republicans are embracing early voting, causing concern among Democrats as Gov. Glenn Youngkin's team eats into the share of votes that Democrats traditionally bank before Election Day.

  • Why it matters: Youngkin is testing the willingness of the GOP base to reject years of fearmongering from former President Trump that early voting can't be trusted, Axios' Stef Kight and Hans Nichols report.

🧮 By the numbers: Democrats still have the early-voting advantage. But their share of early votes cast in Virginia has fallen — just under 60% so far compared to 63% at roughly the same point last year.

🖼️ The big picture: Democrats privately chuckle at Trump's denunciation of drop-boxes and mail-in ballots, as it gave them a massive head start.

  • In recent elections, Republicans have waited for game-day surges to close the gap — but often fell short.

Trump reversed course last spring and said the GOP had "no choice" but to accept early voting. That gave hardcore supporters the green light to trust a system Trump previously had insisted was fundamentally corrupt.

phkrause

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Judge says Georgia’s congressional and legislative districts are discriminatory and must be redrawn

ATLANTA (AP) — A federal judge ruled Thursday that some of Georgia’s congressional, state Senate and state House districts were drawn in a racially discriminatory manner, ordering the state to draw an additional Black-majority congressional district.

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-redistricting-voting-rights-3a29f4d5662e8908cc083aa07c37abd4?

phkrause

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In Mississippi, most voters will have no choice about who represents them in the Legislature

JACKSON, Miss. (AP) — After being in office for over a decade, Mississippi state Sen. Dean Kirby got challenged in the Republican primary. He won with 70% of the vote.

https://apnews.com/article/uncontested-legislative-elections-mississippi-virginia-8d8b1e7dc7d50d2af4a27a2076ecea07?

phkrause

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Connecticut judge orders new mayoral primary after surveillance videos show possible ballot stuffing

A judge on Wednesday tossed out the results of a Democratic mayoral primary in Connecticut’s largest city and ordered that a new one be held, citing surveillance videos showing people stuffing multiple absentee ballots into outdoor collection boxes.

https://apnews.com/article/connecticut-judge-bridgeport-ganim-mayor-election-1e6d23567703c55430968ffdaa0b6369?

phkrause

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Ballot shortages in Mississippi created a problem for democracy on the day of a governor’s election

JACKSON, Miss. (AP) — People in Mississippi’s largest county are demanding answers about why some polling places ran out of ballots and voters had to wait for them to be replenished on the day the state was deciding its most competitive governor’s race in a generation.

https://apnews.com/article/mississippi-election-voting-problems-0eb722545983da2b8ad979d52c73aa72?

phkrause

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Advocates push for national popular vote for president in Florida and across the U.S.

Growing numbers of Americans are deciding that the way we elect the president of the United States needs to change to guarantee that the winner of the popular vote nationwide wins the presidency – which is not currently the case.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2023/11/10/advocates-push-for-national-popular-vote-for-president-in-florida-and-across-the-u-s/?

phkrause

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📊 Border is huge issue for swing-state voters
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Chart: Bloomberg News

Roughly three times as many swing-state voters call immigration their top issue in the 2024 presidential race as say the same about the Israel-Hamas war, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found.

  • Why it matters: The border is a signature issue for former President Trump, whose strength in swing-state polls is a danger sign for President Biden's re-election.

68% of swing-state respondents back funding for border protection — more than the 61% who want aid to Israel or 58% who favor aid to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

  • The poll included 4,922 registered voters in the states expected to decide the election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

🥊 By the numbers: Trump leads Biden by 6 points (47% to 41%) across the seven swing states — well outside the collective margin of error of ±1 point.

  • Trump had convincing leads in North Carolina and Georgia. He's ahead within the margin of error in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden and Trump were tied in Michigan.

phkrause

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New Florida plan: Let’s just ban voting altogether | Commentary

A common trait among Florida legislators, especially those in positions of power, is that they think they’re really smart. Usually smarter than they are. And definitely smarter than you.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/11/15/florida-constitution-amending-harder-maxwell/?

phkrause

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New Jersey drops ‘so help me God’ oath for candidate filings

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — New Jersey is dropping its requirement that candidates for office sign an oath that includes the words “so help me God” in filing paperwork for their candidacy.

https://apnews.com/article/so-help-me-god-candidate-oath-elections-3a62d7930892cf85a5dc0a2bd23444f0?

phkrause

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Judge finds Voting Rights Act violation in North Dakota redistricting for two tribes

BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — North Dakota’s 2021 legislative redistricting plan violates the rights of two Native American tribes because it dilutes their voting strength, a federal judge ruled Friday.

https://apnews.com/article/north-dakota-redistricting-lawsuit-spirit-lake-turtle-mountain-tribes-0faa6dc38763267d42af1b6c2ab301c0?

phkrause

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