Other Races for 2023/24

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Swing-county Kentucky voters weigh their choices for governor in a closely watched off-year election

BOWLING GREEN, Ky. (AP) — Republican voter Mark Cook stuck with his party in Kentucky’s last election for governor. Next month, he’s leaning toward crossing over to support the Democrat he voted against in 2019, Gov. Andy Beshear.

https://apnews.com/article/kentucky-governor-race-abortion-pandemic-beshear-cameron-508573d2aeb8d8ab4039dbd834609519?

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📺 Spot of the week: Youngkin's pick to click

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is spending significant political capital to hold the GOP's narrow majority in the Virginia state General Assembly.

Driving the news: This recent ad for Riley Shaia, one of the party's top recruits in a blue district, is an example of his aggressive campaign efforts.

• "To keep Virginia the best place to live, work and raise a family, I need you to vote for Riley Shaia," Youngkin says in the ad, after joking about their height difference.
• "Like me, she's a political outsider. Riley's a small-business owner and a mom who knows how to create jobs and keep our kids safe."

Why it matters: Virginia's state legislative elections are among the biggest off-year elections this November.

• The outcome will show how much political capital Youngkin holds in a Democratic-leaning state. A strong GOP showing would further raise Youngkin's national profile.
• To date, this is the only ad for a GOP legislative candidate that Youngkin has appeared in, according to a source close to the governor.

Go deeper: The suburban Richmond district that Shaia is running in is a Democratic-leaning seat — one that would be a bellwether for a big Republican night if she prevails.

• Youngkin lost the district by five points in 2021, which makes his presence in the ad all the more significant. Trump lost it by seven points in 2020.
• Shaia, a former physical therapist, is running against Democratic state Del. Rodney Willett.
• She is one of the few Republicans to break with her party on abortion, favoring Virginia's current law restricting abortion at 26 weeks over Youngkin's proposal for 15 weeks, except for cases of rape, incest and a threat to the life of the mother.

By the numbers: Youngkin's PAC (Spirit of Virginia), which launched in 2021, has raised nearly $20 million for Republicans running in the biggest state legislative battlegrounds.

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📊 Tale of 2 governors

Next Tuesday, voters in Mississippi and Kentucky will decide the re-election fates of two governors on polar ends of the popularity scale:

• In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has an approval rating of 60% among registered voters, according to Morning Consult's latest leader approval report. That includes 93% of Biden voters in Kentucky and 41% of Trump voters — both good for first in the nation among Democratic governors.
• In Mississippi, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is the second-least popular governor in the country, with an approval rating of 46%, according to Morning Consult. His approval rating among Trump voters lies in the bottom six of GOP governors at 71% — and bottom two among Biden voters at 17%.

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🔄 Trading places: D.C. edition

A few familiar names have declared or are close to announcing bids for higher office, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

• Former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), who lost his 2022 primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger after voting to impeach the former president, is reportedly inching closer to a run for Senate in Michigan.
• Dan Cox, the Trump-aligned GOP nominee for Maryland governor last year, announced his run today for Maryland's 6th House district — the state's only swing seat.
• Susheela Jayapal, the sister of Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), is running for Congress in the solid-blue seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer in neighboring Oregon.

Meanwhile: Two prominent House Republicans announced they won't seek re-election, bringing the total number of lower-chamber retirements to 15 Democrats and seven Republicans.

• Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado — a Freedom Caucus conservative who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — announced his retirement while harshly criticizing the GOP's election denialism.
• Rep. Kay Granger of Texas, the trail-blazing chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee, will retire after 26 years in Congress.

Ken Mehlman — Granger's first chief of staff, later RNC chair and now KKR partner — tells Sneak Peek: "In a world where many in Congress focus on what to say, Kay always emphasized what she could deliver for her constituents."

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📺 Spot of the week: Targeting Tlaib

Screenshot: Democratic Majority for Israel PAC ad

The Democratic Majority for Israel PAC went up with its first ad of the 2024 election, hitting Tlaib for her criticism of Israel. Why it matters: It's the first paid advertising by the pro-Israel group this cycle. Pro-Israel groups, such as DMFI and AIPAC, have generally steered clear from taking on incumbents, preferring to spend money in open Democratic primaries. The early spending against Tlaib indicates that pro-Israel groups believe she's potentially vulnerable in a Democratic primary, even though no one has stepped up yet to challenge her. Notable quotable: The ad points out Tlaib was one of just nine Democrats to vote against condemning Hamas for the Oct. 7 terror attack and suggests that legislation Tlaib has put forward will "allow the terrorists to re-arm themselves" — a reference to her support for a cease-fire. The ad ends: "Tell Rashida Tlaib she's on the wrong side of history and humanity." What they're saying: Tlaib released a video on Friday accusing President Biden of supporting genocide. "Joe Biden supported the genocide of the Palestinian people. The American people won't forget. Biden, support a cease-fire now or don't count on us in 2024," reads the text at the end of the video. The ad features footage of a pro-Palestinian protest in Michigan featuring rallygoers chanting "from the river to the sea!" The slogan is a call for a Palestinian state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, with control of all of Israel's territory. Michigan's Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat who has defended Tlaib in the past, called the congresswoman's remarks "indefensible" and asked her to "retract this cruel and hateful remark." Go deeper: DMFI's PAC isn't the only outside Democratic group looking to oust Tlaib. A super PAC affiliated with LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, a top Democratic donor, plans to support and fund primary efforts against Tlaib and Bush.

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🗳️ Read of the week: Election Day 2023

"Biden and abortion are on the ballot. The question is which matters more" (NBC News)

Why it matters: Abortion rights groups are trying to stretch their winning streak in three states (Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia) on Election Day 2023 this Tuesday.

In Virginia, Democrats are hoping to turn the state legislature blue by taking advantage of GOP candidates' support for Gov. Glenn Youngkin's proposed 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.

• Republicans maintain that polling shows widespread support for a 15-week ban. But voters across the country have rejected efforts to impose stricter abortion regulations after the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. (Virginia currently restricts abortion at 26 weeks.)

In Ohio, Democrats are rallying behind a ballot measure (Issue 1) that would create a constitutional right to an abortion.

• What makes this referendum unpredictable is that abortion rights advocates are playing offense — not defense, as has been the case in recent elections — by seeking to overturn some of the state's current abortion restrictions.

In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has campaigned against the GOP-controlled legislature's passage of one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country in his race against Republican Daniel Cameron.

• Cameron later came out in support of amending the state law to allow for additional exceptions.
• A Beshear victory in a solidly-Republican state would demonstrate that moderation and political likability still matter — especially in governor's races less tied to polarizing national issues.

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Her daughter was killed in the Robb Elementary shooting. Now she’s running for mayor of Uvalde

UVALDE, Texas (AP) — On a sticky Texas morning, Kimberly Mata-Rubio is lacing up her running shoes ahead of two races she is running in Uvalde in tribute to her daughter Lexi, who was killed in the 2022 Robb Elementary School shooting.

https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-texas-mayor-election-e052b6ef51607f6b5fc49f722e4acc27?

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5 key races to watch on Election Day

Voters across the country will be heading to the polls Tuesday to weigh in on a slew of statewide and local races, which could provide clues about the national mood ahead of 2024.  

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4292474-5-key-races-to-watch-on-election-day/?

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Tuesday’s elections will be shaped by abortion politics. Here are the major races to watch  The most-watched races in Tuesday’s off-year general election have all been dominated by the ongoing debate over abortion rights. Access to abortion has been a frequent topic in campaign debates and advertising since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade in June last year. Read more.

What to watch: The race for Kentucky governor sees Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear seeking a second term in the heavily Republican state that Donald Trump carried twice.  Beshear has called the state’s restrictive abortion law “extremist” for not allowing exceptions in cases of rape and incest. But GOP nominee Daniel Cameron, who succeeded Beshear as state attorney general, says he supports the state law and, as governor, he would amend it to allow rape and incest exceptions.   Ohio voters will decide whether to amend the state Constitution to protect access to abortion services. The measure would establish the right to “make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions” on matters including abortion, contraception and fertility treatment.   Control of both chambers of Virginia’s state legislature is up for grabs, with Republicans holding a narrow majority in the state House and Democrats leading the state Senate. Either or both chambers could flip and give Republicans full control, which would clear the way for Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin to implement a ban on abortions after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and when the mother’s life is endangered.

Related coverage ➤  AP Election Brief | What to expect when Ohio votes on abortion and marijuana One of Virginia’s key election battlegrounds involves a candidate who endured sex scandal Rhode Island could elect its first Black representative to Congress

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🗳️ Abortion in Election Day spotlight

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Today's elections will be a powerful litmus test of the staying power of abortion as a winning issue for Democrats — and whether Republicans have any room to go on offense, Axios' Stef Kight and Caitlin Owens write. Why it matters: Abortion groups have spent millions of dollars in state races. Both parties are watching closely for winning strategies on one of the top issues concerning American voters ahead of 2024. Ohioans will cast votes on a ballot initiative to affirm the right to abortion by amending the state's constitution. Virginians will decide partisan control of a narrowly divided legislature. Voters will fill a Supreme Court seat in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, and decide whether to keep or remove a rare Southern Democratic governor in Kentucky. 🔬 Between the lines: Faced with their recent losses and the onslaught of advocacy spending, Republicans have tried to adjust their abortion message. GOP officials urged candidates to be specific about their abortion stances, rather than allowing Democrats to define Republicans as supporting total bans without exceptions. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is betting his 15-week limit will be a consensus position.

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Do voters care more about online sex than abortion rights? A handful of states are holding important elections today — some of which have gotten a bit of media attention, others of which are flying under the radar. Here’s what to watch, and, if you’re in any of these states or know people who are, here’s what to look for at the ballot box:   Ohio   This summer, Ohio Republicans tried to change the rules so that it would take a 60 percent threshold to amend the constitution, because a measure to enshrine abortion rights was polling in the high 50s. That effort failed, meaning abortion access – which is on the ballot today – only needs a bare majority, and it should win comfortably. Pot legalization and regulation is also on the ballot, and expected to prevail.   Maine   The Pine Tree State will vote on a ballot measure that would seize control of the two state utility monopolies and combine them into the publicly owned Pine Tree Power, which would be operated by an elected board. “By Mainers, for Mainers,” as their slogan goes. Advocates are promising lower prices, fewer outages, and local control. The measure has been endorsed by major environmental groups, which see it as part of a just transition to a clean energy future.   The unknown is just how scared voters are of the unknown. Will they stick with the status quo, which nobody really likes, or seize the moment? That depends on whether the public still believes in its democratic, collective ability to do big things together. The spending against the proposal has predictably been massive, and Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is against it, so it’s not looking good, but not impossible either.    Mississippi   Republican Tate Reeves, the flush-faced fella from Mississippi who people love to say looks just like me, is facing a robust challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley, who’s most famous for being Elvis’s cousin. But the non-Elvis Presley has been repeatedly elected to the state’s Public Services Commission from a Republican district, and was also a popular mayor. If anybody can beat a Republican in Mississippi, it’s this Presley — but it might be that nobody can beat a Republican. Some polls have it close, others have my doppelganger comfortably ahead.   Virginia   The House and Senate are both up for grabs. If Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin wins a trifecta, not only does he become a major White House threat, but he’ll have the opportunity to do an enormous amount of culture war legislating — including passing abortion restrictions — along with traditional Republican stuff like cutting taxes on businesses and the wealthy.    The most interesting individual race to watch is Democrat Susanna Gibson running in the 57th House district representing the Richmond suburbs. She’s the one caught up in a scandal: Republican operatives discovered she was doing sex on camera with her husband and streaming it on the website Chaturbate and they fed the dirt to the Washington Post. The Post hilariously (and erroneously) dinged her for violating the website’s terms of service. (She didn’t, if that’s the part that had you bothered.) Democrats have largely stopped funding her campaign, but the race asks a question I can’t wait to learn the answer to: Do voters care about this more than they care about abortion rights? After all, it’s consensual adult behavior, nobody got hurt, nobody was watching who didn’t want to. And for those with traditional values, hey, it was even with her husband. What’s the problem?   If Gibson prevails, look for Democrats to win both chambers. That makes her race the one to watch – and you don’t even have to pay. (Tips are of course accepted.)   Pennsylvania   A state Supreme Court election on Tuesday could narrow Democrats’ majority ahead of a critical year for issues from abortion to election integrity. Spending on the election has topped $17 million, with committees tied to Pennsylvania billionaire Jeff Yass pouring money in to back Republican candidate Carolyn Carluccio. With the state party in disarray, Democrats are betting that Superior Court Judge Dan McCaffery’s support for abortion rights will be enough to win the race. But expectations of low turnout, particularly in Philadelphia, amplified by growing frustration with President Joe Biden, have the party on edge.    Pittsburgh voters in Allegheny County will have a say in the latest battle between reformers and “tough-on-crime” prosecutors. Matt Dugan, the county’s former chief public defender, beat 25-year incumbent, Stephen A. Zappala, Jr., by 11 points in the May primary and became the Democratic nominee for county district attorney. Dugan switched parties so that he could face Zappala again on Tuesday, gathering enough write-in-votes to become the GOP nominee in the race.    In 2018, Summer Lee and Sara Innamorato, with the support of the Democratic Socialists of America, unseated two incumbent cousins in the Pennsylvania state house, Dominic and Paul Costa — shocking upsets that flowed from the same current that lifted the Squad to federal office that year. Summer Lee won election to Congress in 2022 and this year, Innamorato won the Democratic nomination for Allegheny County executive, the most powerful position in western Pennsylvania, with control over a budget in the billions, plus oversight of local elections. Given the partisan lean of the area, there generally isn’t a competitive general election. In fact, after beating her Costa in 2018, Innamorato ran unopposed in the general election (aside from a write-in campaign by Costa).    This year is different. Republicans have nominated Joe Rockey — heavily backed by the aforementioned Jeff Yass — a former banker running as an old-school moderate, pro-business Republican. The county executive has very little say over abortion policy and zero over Gaza, but Innamorato is hammering Rockey on abortion and Rockey is hitting her back on Israel-Palestine. Innamorato left DSA in 2019 (Lee left in 2018), but Rockey has hammered her for the connection, demanding she condemn both Hamas (which she did) and DSA for not sufficiently condemning Hamas (which she also did).    She also distanced herself again from the Democratic Socialists of America. “I haven’t been affiliated with the DSA since 2019,” she noted. “I urge my opponent to stay focused on who is actually being harmed in the conflict in Israel and Gaza instead of trying to score cheap political points off of people’s pain.”   If Innamorato loses, it’ll be seen as a rebuke to the left, and a warning shot fired at Summer Lee, and it’ll position Rockey as a credible threat for governor or Senate. Plus, look for tax cuts for wealthy homeowners and an erosion of the area’s tax base.   If Innamorato wins, she is pledging to focus on affordable housing, clean water, and other progressive priorities. But in our weird system, the race may come down to how voters feel about Gaza – or how they feel about how other people feel about Gaza.   Kentucky    Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, is up for reelection in Kentucky, facing Mitch McConnell protégé Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general. Polls are extremely tight, and Beshear has the support of enough Trump voters that he might hold on. If Beshear edges it out he instantly becomes a national political contender. (Which, by the way, is absurd. Should losing by a few thousand votes versus winning by a few thousand votes be the difference in whether he’s a viable presidential candidate?)   New Jersey    The American right has been trying to win elections on culture war issues for as long as there’s been an identifiable right wing in our politics, though what those culture war issues are is endlessly up for grabs. In 2021, Republicans felt like they cracked the culture code in Virginia, electing Glenn Youngkin on the back of anger at school districts over a scandal involving gender, bathroom access, and a high-profile assault. Youngkin claimed the mantle of a “parents movement” that wanted more say in curriculum and in the books in libraries.    Now Republicans think they’ve successfully re-run that campaign on steroids in New Jersey, based on anger at school boards over the question of whether schools must notify parents if their children go through a social gender transition at school. Based on existing law, schools do not have to alert parents. That law was passed largely with sexual orientation in mind, and the idea was that a student ought to be able to confide in a sympathetic teacher and should be able to come out to their parents at a time of their own choosing.    Parent groups today in New Jersey have argued to school boards that the law ought to treat sexual orientation and gender transition differently, given that the latter is — at least as is currently understood in some corners — related to gender dysphoria, which is by definition related to mental health, which is not the case for sexual orientation. And if mental health is involved, any treatment, including social transition, ought to be implemented in coordination with parents, the argument goes. Democrats have tried to strike a balance on the question, not wanting to repeat Terry McAuliffe’s debate gaffe — “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” — which helped elect Youngkin.    School boards are up for election, but so is the state legislature, and Republicans are hoping one will bleed into the other.    Akela Lacy contributed reporting.

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It’s Election Day. Here is what you need to know

Though it’s an off-year general election, races across the country will have far-reaching implications for 2024 and beyond.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2023-governor-ohio-abortion-voting-polling-place-ballot-results-c91dc9a11e8787985e6278ebad9c7aae?

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Election Day Results

US voters cast ballots yesterday in off-year general elections in several states, choosing state and local leaders and deciding on a number of referendums.   In Kentucky, a state won by former President Donald Trump twice, Gov. Andy Beshear (D) secured a second term after defeating challenger and state Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). In Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) won reelection against Brandon Presley (D), a state utility regulator and second cousin to the legendary Elvis Presley.    Every seat in the General Assembly in Virginia was up for grabs. Democrats won full control of the statehouse, ending the prospect of a Republican trifecta under Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).   In Ohio, voters passed a proposal to amend the state constitution to protect access to abortion services. Part of the proposal would establish the right to an abortion, contraception, and fertility treatment. Ohioans also voted in favor of legalizing recreational marijuana, making Ohio the 24th state to do so.   Rhode Island voters made history by electing Gabe Amo (D), the state's first Black congressman. In New York City, Yusef Salaam (D), who was one of five teens wrongfully convicted of attacking a jogger in New York City's Central Park in 1989 and exonerated in 2002, won a city council seat. Salaam was unopposed.   Separately, the third Republican primary debate will be held tonight in Miami (8 pm ET, NBC). Five candidates—former Govs. Nikki Haley (SC) and Chris Christie (NJ), Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL), Sen. Tim Scott (SC), and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy—are set to participate.

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Democrats win in several states on abortion rights, and other highlights from Tuesday’s elections Democrats have a lot to be happy about after winning major races in Tuesday’s election. Abortion rights supporters won big in an Ohio ballot measure and Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear was reelected in Kentucky after running television ads painting his challenger as an extremist on abortion. Read more.

Key results: In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear was reelected in a state that Donald Trump had won by 26 percentage points over Joe Biden, and in Virginia, Democrats retook full control of the General Assembly after two years of divided power, holding control of the state Senate and flipping control of the Virginia House of Delegates. Later on Tuesday, Dan McCaffery won an open seat on Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court after positioning himself as a defender of abortion rights.   In Ohio, a ballot measure preserving abortion rights passed in a state that Trump won by eight percentage points in 2020. Republicans had already tried to derail the measure by calling an unusual August referendum to make it harder to pass ballot measures — an initiative that was roundly rejected by Ohio voters. The outcomes suggest a transformed political landscape since a conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a federal right to abortion last year.   In some historic election firsts, former Biden White House aide Gabe Amo will become the first Black member of Congress from Rhode Island, and Philadelphia will have its first female mayor after Democrat Cherelle Parker defeated Republican David Oh in the overwhelmingly Democratic city.

Related coverage ➤  Ohio votes to legalize marijuana for adult recreational use, becoming 24th state to do so How the AP counts the vote on election night WATCH: What you missed from the 2023 U.S. elections

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🗳️ Abortion-rights victories in 3 states

Last night's off-year elections proved the post-Roe staying power of abortion rights to bolster Democrats — even in the red states of Ohio and Kentucky, and in Virginia under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

• Why it matters: Abortion rights have won every time they've been on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, Axios' Caitlin Owens and Stef Kight write.

Ohio voters added the right to abortion into the state constitution — providing a template for advocates in other red and purple states hoping to push similar measures.

• Groups in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Colorado and South Dakota are working to get abortion rights measures on the ballot next year.
• More from Axios Cleveland.

🌿 Ohio also voted to legalize recreational marijuana. More from Axios Columbus.

In the deep red state of Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear kept his seat after an election often defined by his support for abortion rights.

• Beshear, 45, "has now won two races in a state that favored Trump by 26 points in 2020," making Beshear a presidential or V.P. option "whenever Democrats might be looking to assemble a new ticket," The Washington Post notes.

Youngkin failed to gain control of the Virginia legislature. That means he won't be able to pass his 15-week "limit" on abortions — and saps demand for a potential presidential bid.

• The Virginia GOP's failure is a blow for Republicans hoping to prove that what they believe to be a middle ground on abortion will win over voters.

More from Axios Richmond.

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) beat back aggressive challenger Brandon Presley (D), a state utility regulator and second cousin of Elvis Presley.

• Go deeper.

In Philadelphia, Democrat Cherelle Parker is the first woman to win as mayor — a victory signaling a likely shift toward tough-on-crime policies.

• She has pledged to hire hundreds of cops, and embraces the stop-and-frisk police tactic. More from Axios Philly.

Other firsts: Former Biden White House aide Gabe Amo, the son of West African immigrants, will become the first Black member of Congress from Rhode Island. Go deeper.

• In New York, Yusef Salaam (D), an exonerated member of the "Central Park Five," will represent central Harlem on the City Council, completing a stunning reversal of fortune decades after he was wrongly imprisoned in an infamous rape case. Go deeper.

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Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin won’t seek reelection, giving GOP a key pickup opportunity

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced Thursday that he won’t seek reelection in 2024, giving Republicans a prime opportunity to pick up a seat in the heavily GOP state.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-manchin-west-virginia-election-35e5285934c5801db37215802ca2cd94?

Manchin's earthquake

A Democratic fairy tale is coming to an end in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin's decision not to seek re-election threatens to blow up the party's chances of holding the Senate — and potentially the White House — in 2024.

Why it matters: Without Manchin — widely viewed as the only Democrat who could run competitively in deep-red West Virginia — Republicans likely will need to flip just one or two Senate seats to take control of Congress' upper chamber, depending on the outcome of the presidential race.

• Perhaps more alarming for Democrats, Manchin's announcement left open the possibility that he would run for president on a centrist third-party ticket.
• "What I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together," Manchin said in a video statement.

The big picture: The conservative Democrat, who's been in the Senate since 2010, will leave behind a complicated legacy.

• Manchin frequently butted heads with Democratic leadership, especially in recent years as his influence reached its peak in the narrowly divided chamber.
• He never shied away from criticizing President Biden's agenda or threatening to tank Democratic legislation and nominations, even flirting with the idea of becoming an independent as the infighting mounted.
• But without Manchin, Biden never would have passed his signature legislative achievement — the Inflation Reduction Act, a $740 billion package that featured the largest climate investment in U.S. history.

Between the lines: The massive spending bill took a sledgehammer to Manchin's image back home in West Virginia, and disputes with Biden over its implementation have increasingly left him on a political island.

• Facing long odds in next year's Senate race, Manchin has toyed with the idea of running on a bipartisan presidential ticket sponsored by No Labels, which praised him in a vague statement reacting to his retirement.
• In July, Manchin shot back at Democratic criticism that he would be a "spoiler" candidate who could help elect former President Trump: "If I get in a race, I'm gonna win," he said.

What to watch: There are no obvious Democratic successors to Manchin, and West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice was already favored to win next year's Senate race assuming he becomes the GOP nominee.

• With Manchin's seat firmly in the Republican column, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mt.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) — the other two red-state Democrats up for re-election — will move further into the political spotlight.
• "This officially makes us Mitch McConnell's number one target. You can bet that every dollar national Republicans would have spent in West Virginia is now coming to Montana," Tester said in a fundraising appeal.

The upside: Abandoning a West Virginia race that already was tilting red will free up Democratic resources to defend incumbents and go on offense in Texas and Florida — the only potential pick-up opportunities.

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Capitol rioter plans 2024 run as a Libertarian candidate in Arizona’s 8th congressional district

PHOENIX (AP) — Jacob Chansley, the spear-carrying rioter whose horned fur hat, bare chest and face paint made him one of the more recognizable figures in the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, apparently aspires to be a member of Congress.

https://apnews.com/article/capitol-rioter-arizona-congress-chansley-33de9a9f4ff1ea35cd12d9719a2f2987?

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New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy jumps into Senate race

New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy on Wednesday announced her run for U.S. Senate in 2024.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/15/tammy-murphy-new-jersey-senate-bob-menendez?

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Defeated Virginia candidate whose explicit videos surfaced says she may not be done with politics

HENRICO, Va. (AP) — Susanna Gibson lost her Virginia legislative race this month, but she may not be done with politics.

https://apnews.com/article/susanna-gibson-videos-virginia-legislature-livestreamed-porn-b7534f8c3f4d099dfd3d96701a125504?

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A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control

BIGFORK, Mont. (AP) — After 17 years in the U.S. Senate, Democrat Jon Tester is a well-known commodity in Montana — a plain-spoken grain farmer with a flattop and a carefully cultivated reputation as a moderate.

https://apnews.com/article/tester-senate-montana-2024-election-197d50f3aef99d35148e775acff52ed9?

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Utah special election for Congress sees Republican former House staffer face Democratic legislator

Voters in Utah will choose between a Republican former congressional staffer and a Democratic state senator in a special election Tuesday to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Chris Stewart, who recently resigned.

https://apnews.com/article/utah-congress-special-election-maloy-riebe-ad8d34b77520c46aaca973d2ef4df08b?

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New group of Dem state lawmakers announce support for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate

A dozen sitting state lawmakers and one former state legislator announced Monday that they are the latest group of Florida Democrats to publicly declare their support for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate in 2024.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2023/11/20/new-group-of-dem-state-lawmakers-announce-support-for-debbie-mucarsel-powell-for-u-s-senate/?

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More than 43,000 people went to the polls for a Louisiana election. A candidate won by 1 vote

BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — In the northwest corner of Louisiana, a candidate for parish sheriff demanded a recount Wednesday after losing by a single vote in an election where more than 43,000 people cast ballots.

https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-election-vote-parish-sheriff-recount-b95748fd61fd84c38b89a21655aa3e2f?

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Kevin McCarthy's revenge

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — who announced today that he's leaving Congress at the end of the year — is already hinting at a revenge tour.

• Why it matters: Since his short-lived speakership ended in October, McCarthy has repeatedly taken aim at the eight Republicans who voted to oust him.

The California Republican, known as a master fundraiser, called himself a "free agent" who's now able to endorse primary candidates.

• McCarthy wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed today that he "will continue to recruit our country's best and brightest to run for elected office."
• One McCarthy critic told Axios last month that the former speaker will likely use millions in PAC funds to meddle in the races of his GOP foes.

🔎 Zoom in: Tensions between McCarthy and his critics have been evident since the motion to vacate took place.

• McCarthy predicted that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) — who led the effort to remove him — will be kicked out of Congress and said he "belongs in jail."
• On Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), McCarthy said: "If you've watched her, just her philosophy and the flip-flopping. ... I don't believe she wins re-election."
• He joked about Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) facing a possible primary challenge from a former Navy SEAL. "You mean the military guy? I heard something about him."

👀 What we're watching: Some Republicans have voiced concerns about their already razor-thin majority shrinking further.

• Go deeper with Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke.

[phkrause]

Shock Poll Shows Independent Nebraska Union Leader Beating Republican Senator

With Senate control hanging in the balance, Nebraska Democrats are considering backing Dan Osborn in his challenge against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

https://theintercept.com/2023/12/04/nebraska-senate-dan-osborn-deb-fisher/?