Other Races for 2023/24

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💸 GOP spending more than Dems on political ads

By Kate Murphy

Data: AdImpact; Note: "Campaigns" include spending by candidates or in coordination with party committees; "Outside groups" includes spending by non-candidate groups and party committees; Chart: Axios Visuals Republicans are outspending Democrats on political ads in San Diego as the November election approaches but not by much. By the numbers: Campaigns and committees spent at least $2.7 million on ads from Aug. 1 through Sept. 20, according to data from analytics platform AdImpact. Republicans have spent $1.4 million, compared to $1.3 million by Democrats. Nearly all of that money is coming from candidates' campaigns, and it includes presidential, congressional and down-ballot races. Yes, but: San Diego stands out from the national trend that shows Democrats are outspending Republicans by about a half-billion dollars. The big picture: Political ad spending locally is a fraction of what cities in battleground states are seeing. Both parties are spending tens of millions of dollars on ads running in Philadelphia ($218 million), Detroit ($196 million) and Phoenix ($164 million). Between the lines: Political action committees have planned to spend millions on ads around six key U.S. House races in California that could help determine which party controls Congress in 2025. Keep reading

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🎯 McConnell's new target

Mitch McConnell is lighting up the Senate's other toss-up race, putting urgent pressure on Chuck Schumer's fight to save the Democratic majority.

Why it matters: Ohio and Montana have gotten the attention this year, but Michigan's Senate race is one of only two toss-ups left with Ohio in the Cook Political Report ratings. Montana is now rated lean Republican.

• Michigan's open seat ups the difficulty: Schumer won't benefit from a strong incumbent like Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

💰 Scoop: Another $8 million in statewide ads is coming from the super PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fund, which supports Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers, we have exclusively learned. The buy doubles the super PAC's investment so far this year.

• Add that to the $22.5 million coming from the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, as the Wall Street Journal reported this morning. SLF had not previously spent in Michigan.

Zoom in: The Democratic Senate campaign arm has spent nearly $22 million in the state this year.

• 😰 We reported in yesterday's Sneak that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), the Democratic candidate in the race, told donors last week that Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in the state.

Slotkin has an average polling lead of 4.6% in the Senate race, according to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

• Republican internal polling shows the candidates are statistically tied, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The big picture: McConnell takes the majority if the GOP can win a single race among Montana, Ohio or Michigan — or pull off a surprise in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Maryland.

• Schumer has far fewer options, with Democrats chasing long-shots in Texas and Florida to make up any losses in the races listed above. In Nebraska, they're cheering on an independent challenger to GOP incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer.
• "We're keeping an eye on Texas and in Florida, and maybe half an eye on Nebraska," SLF president Steven Law told the Journal.

— Stephen Neukam

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👀 Surprise Trump effect

Data: Real Clear Politics; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and NRSC Chair Steve Daines are grappling with an uncomfortable reality: Republican Senate challengers are lagging well behind former President Trump in public surveys. Why it matters: The polling gap has baffled Republican candidates and strategists, who expected it to collapse as November neared. Its persistence is a warning for the Republican high command that a close Trump victory in any given swing state doesn't guarantee a GOP Senate seat — even if it also signals a bloc of still-persuadable voters. It could herald the return of something McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have seen vanish in the last two presidential races: The split-ticket voter. 🔎 Between the lines: There are several theories about why Senate Republicans lag behind their presidential candidate, including a lack of name ID and getting outspent. Then there's the Trump factor. The former president appeals to many nontraditional Republicans and former working-class Democrats. Trump is "outperforming other Republicans because his base is broader than the traditional GOP coalition," Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told us. "Republicans should follow his lead to make our entire party stronger after November and cement the GOP as the party of the working class," Banks, who is running for Senate, said. 🔭 Zoom in: In contested elections, the gap is most pronounced in Ohio. Trump is running 8.7 percentage points ahead of GOP Senate nominee Bernie Moreno, according to RealClearPolitics averages. The narrowest margin is in Wisconsin, where Trump is polling ahead of Eric Hovde by 2.2 percentage points. Both candidates are under 50%. One notable exception: Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is running nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in the deep blue state of Maryland. Hogan hasn't been shy about distancing himself from Trump and even rejected his endorsement. The other side: On the Democratic side, the trend is reversed, but the margins are much smaller. In four of the five battleground states that also have a tight Senate race, Vice President Kamala Harris trails her party's candidate by one or two points — and sometimes less. In Michigan, she's running a point ahead of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). President Biden was lagging behind his party's Senate candidates by bigger percentages before dropping out, but Harris has nearly erased the gap. What they're saying: "Democrat incumbents have maxed out their name ID and Democrat vote share, which is why they are matching Kamala Harris' ballot numbers," NRSC spokesperson Mike Berg told us. "We are already seeing positive movement in our polls, and we expect continued positive movement over the next five weeks," he added. DSCC spokesperson David Bergstein told us: "Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed candidates, and their lies, scandals and baggage repel voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans." — Hans Nichols and Stef Kight 🤠 Schumer's Texas dream Schumer's best shot (and it's a LONG shot) at keeping the Senate majority seems to run through Texas. Why it matters: Democrats won't concede Montana, now rated "lean Republican." But if Schumer loses there, he'll need a Texas miracle. 🤠 Enter a ratings change. Cook Political Report now says Texas is "lean Republican," after listing it as "likely Republican" for most of the cycle. The "Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but [Democratic nominee Rep. Colin] Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted today. Reality check: Sen. Ted Cruz losing in Texas would be a far bigger shocker than Sen. Jon Tester losing in Montana. Cruz leads Allred by five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Tester trails GOP challenger Tim Sheehy by nearly six percentage points in the RCP polling average. In 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.

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Striking-distance Senate race

The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D) is edging closer, according to a new analysis by the Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: Democrats are banking on a Hail Mary in Texas to keep the Senate majority if they lose the contested Montana race, now rated "lean Republican" by the nonpartisan organization.

• At stake are the confirmation of judges, the ability to approve or reject bills out of the House and control of investigative hearings.

Driving the news: The Cruz vs. Allred race is now "lean Republican," after being rated as "likely Republican" for most of the 2024 election cycle, according to the group's latest ratings.

The big picture "[The] Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted on X.

Reality check: A loss for Cruz, the state's junior senator since 2012, would be a far bigger shocker than incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) losing in Montana.

Flashback: Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. But, in 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.

The latest: Cruz leads Allred by 5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

• While Texas remains a GOP stronghold, it has become more diverse — something Cruz seems to be responding to as he rebrands himself.
• Allred, a fundraising juggernaut, has targeted moderate and independent voters by supporting oil and gas jobs, advocating for incremental health care reforms and promoting a tough border position.

What's next: Allred is campaigning across the state this week. Cruz is launching his bus tour tomorrow.

• Their first debate is Oct. 15.

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Mucarsel-Powell calls Rick Scott’s reluctance to debate a ‘dereliction of duty’

With a month to go before Election Day, it looks increasingly like Florida voters won’t have the opportunity to size up the two major candidates for the U.S. Senate seat in a televised debate.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/04/mucarsel-powell-calls-rick-scotts-reluctance-to-debate-a-dereliction-of-duty/?

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🔎 House "squinter" races

Data: AdImpact, Cook Political Report; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios With dreams of going big, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are pouring millions into long-shot targets. 🔎 Call them "squinter races." They aren't sleeper races, given the spending. But when one party squints, they can see a path to victory. Why it matters: The House majority will be decided in little more than two dozen toss-up races, but both sides crave the shot at a substantial majority. That creates a must-do: Pick off safe(er) seats on the other side, or at least make them spend big on defense. 🤑 The DCCC and the Jeffries-linked House Majority PAC have invested $21 million into flipping a half dozen GOP-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Republican" by Cook Political Report. The NRCC and Johnson's Congressional Leadership Fund have spent around $16.7 million on seven Democratic-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Democratic." Driving the news: Two "squinters" recently came into focus for Democrats when Cook moved Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts from "lean Republican" to toss-up. The same happened for Republicans when Cook changed Virginia's 7th district from "lean Democrat" to a jump-ball. Democrats have poured $5.5 million into Iowa-1 and $2.1 million in Iowa-3, according to data from AdImpact. Republicans spent $1.8 million in Virginia-7. Look for more ad buys: Democrats have plenty of cash to throw around. The DCCC last month added John Avlon and Whitney Fox, the challengers to Reps. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), to their "Red to Blue" program. Both districts are rated "likely Republican." — Andrew Solender and Hans Nichols   🎯 Why the 13 became targets   Three main factors can put a district on the target list, Republican and Democratic strategists who work on House races told us. 1) Weak incumbent: For Democrats, targets include Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.), Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.). For Republicans, it's members like Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who they see as facing the first truly tough challenge of her 40-year career in a district that voted for former President Trump in 2020. 2) Strong challenger: Democrats are enamored with the backgrounds of candidates such as Monica Tranel, a former Olympian who's challenging Zinke, and Janelle Stelson, a TV anchor running against Perry. Republicans are leaning on the diversity of their candidate slate in these districts. That includes Rep. Pat Ryan's (D-N.Y.) challenger Alison Esposito, Rep. Jahana Hayes' (D-Conn.) challenger George Logan and former Rep. Mayra Flores, who's running against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). 3) Promising fundamentals: House Democrats hope backlash to abortion laws in redder states like Iowa will drive turnout. They're also counting on a boost from competitive Senate races in Montana, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Republicans are hoping for a second wave of backlash against Democrats in California and New York that fueled their 2022 victory. — Andrew Solender   🌎 Travel tracker: Jeffries' #2   Data: Rep. Katherine Clark's campaign; Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Jeffries' deputy — Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) — has already traveled to two dozen states this cycle, we have learned. Why it matters: Clark's travel serves dual roles, her allies tell us — helping Democrats win back the House majority and preparing her to step into the majority leader role should they do so. Clark has focused on abortion and child care, positioning herself as the party's de facto congressional spokesperson on those issues. Clark was a DCCC vice chair for recruitment in 2017 and co-chair of the DCCC's Red to Blue program in 2018, becoming caucus vice chair in 2019 and assistant speaker in 2021. — Andrew Solender

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🔥 Spicy Hogan quote

 

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is doing his best to distance himself from GOP leaders in tonight's Maryland Senate debate on NBC.

• "I am not a MAGA, Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell person," Hogan said while debating Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks.

— Hans Nichols

📺 Ad watch: Sounding (slightly) Trumpy

 

Chuck Schumer's most endangered Democratic Senate candidates are meeting Trump halfway on two big issues he's riding hard: inflationand immigration.

Why it matters: They aren't calling to build the wall or blaming Biden-Harris for skyrocketing prices, but in their paid ads, they agree with Trump's basic diagnosis of the country's ailments.

• The ads are a clear indication that Democrats are worried those issues pose a serious risk to Schumer's majority.

State of play: When candidates put big money behind a TV ad, it tends to reflect either a strength or a weakness.

• Nearly every Democratic campaign has an ad that touts their support for reproductive rights or draws attention to their opponent's position, according to a review of AdImpact's database.
• Most of them also feel compelled to offer their own answer on inflation and immigration.

What they're saying: "Filling your refrigerator shouldn't be emptying your bank account," Alsobrooks says in one ad.

• "We need someone who cares, who fights for all of us, because costs are up," acknowledges Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in a seven-figure ad buy that has been running this week in his campaign to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
• "It's high time to lower housing costs so we can continue to raise our families here," Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) tells the camera in one of his ads. 

Between the lines: A similar dynamic is in play with immigration. Democrats aren't echoing Trump's claims that the country is being overrun by migrants, but they acknowledge that a porous border is a problem.

• "Sherrod Brown voted for the most conservative immigration bill in decades to deport violent criminals," says an ad being run on the Ohio senator's behalf by a Democratic Super PAC.

— Hans Nichols

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Moreno’s abortion comment rattles debate in expensive Senate race in Republican-leaning Ohio

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — An off-the-cuff comment about reproductive rights by Republican Bernie Moreno in Ohio’s tight Senate race has put abortion at the center of debate in the most expensive Senate campaign this year. And that’s just where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown wanted it.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2024-senate-ohio-moreno-brown-abortion-2771a833403d1a29db295d50cc307a7e?

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GOP's October silver lining

Data: Federal Election Commission; Note: Some races have partial quarterly data; Districts sorted by largest to smallest gap; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Battleground House Republicans have one saving grace after they got creamed on fundraising last quarter — their cash on hand looks pretty good. While just two of 43 Republicans in districts rated "toss-up," "lean Republican" or "lean Democrat" by Cook Political Report out-raised their Democratic foes in the third quarter, 13 of them ended up with more cash. That's at least in part thanks to strong fundraising quarters for Republicans earlier this cycle. — Andrew Solender

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Pennsylvania Senate Race shifts to "toss-up" with 15 days to go

Senate Democrats are now defending four seats in "toss-up" races after Cook Political Report added the Pennsylvania Senate race to the pile.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/21/pennsylvania-senate-race-tossup-cook-political?

Trump "unfamiliar" with N.C. governor race despite Mark Robinson endorsement

Former President Trump claimed Monday that he's not familiar with the North Carolina governor's race, despite having previously endorsed Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) for the job.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/21/trump-robinson-north-carolina-governor-race?

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🌽 McConnell's Husker help

One positive note for Schumer: Republicans are showing sustained signs of concern about the Nebraska Senate race.

Why it matters: A Nebraska Republican losing a statewide race with Trump on the ticket would be a stunning upset.

• But Sen. Deb Fischer's re-election fight against independent candidate Dan Osborn shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" today, per Cook.

Pair that with $3 million in incoming spending to support Fischer from the Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund, Semafor first reported.

• "California and New York Democrats are putting crazy money into Dan Osborn's campaign," SLF president Steven Law said in a statement.
• Osborn has leveraged viral ads to build a bigger-than-expected bid. He's declined support from Nebraska Democrats but faces plenty of incoming GOP ads suggesting he'd caucus with Schumer.

The bottom line: The streaming broadcast of Nebraska football's brutal loss to Indiana on Saturday included ads that featured Trump attacking Osborn as a "radical-left person."

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💥 McConnell's all-in blast

Data: AdImpact; Chart: Axios Visuals A Mitch McConnell-linked super PAC is hitting the Blue Wall with $42 million in new ad spending through Election Day, we have learned. Why it matters: Senate Republicans appear to be abandoning Arizona and Nevada in favor of toss-ups in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. If they can win one of those four — and hold off an upset in Nebraska, Texas or Florida — they'll pad their expected majority. 💰 The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) has not reserved a single dollar at this point to help candidates Kari Lake in Arizona or Sam Brown in Nevada in the closing stretch. That leaves it on track to be outspent by over $13 million in Arizona and Nevada over the next two weeks by the Chuck Schumer-linked Senate Majority PAC (SMP). The two PACs are going toe-to-toe in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but a spending surge from SLF gives it an edge of around $8 million in Michigan and Wisconsin. Zoom in: The two leadership PACs are on track to spend well over $55 million this year in Montana, which has just under 800,000 registered voters. SMP has reserved $6.1 million for the next two weeks versus $5.5 million for SLF. Between the lines: SLF has reserved $2.8 million in ads in deep-red Nebraska to protect Sen. Deb Fischer, who is facing an unexpectedly stiff challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn. SMP is having to spend $1.8 million in deep-blue Maryland, where former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is giving Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks a tougher-than-expected challenge. — Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols Schumer's promising poll Here's one good data point for Schumer that's getting lots of buzz in Bidenland: Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Elissa Slotkin leads GOP nominee Mike Rogers by eight percentage points in the newest polling by Quinnipiac (1,136 likely voters, +/- 2.9% margin of error). Two weeks ago, they were tied in a Quinnipiac poll (1,007 likely voters, +/- 3.1% margin of error). Slotkin leads the RealClearPolitics polling average by three percentage points.

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🌶 Spiciest district of 2024

The most sneakily competitive district in the country sure seems to be Nebraska's 2nd District, which includes Omaha and the surrounding metro area.

Why it matters: The GOP's failed effort to get rid of its electoral college vote-splitting has left two of its incumbents at the mercy of repeated rallies from the Harris presidential campaign.

• House: GOP Rep. Don Bacon is in a "toss-up" against Democratic challenger state Sen. Tony Vargas.
• Senate: Republican incumbent Deb Fischer is up by just 2 percentage points over independent challenger Dan Osborn in the newest NYT/Siena poll.
• White House: Harris leads the latest polls by the high single digits. Biden won in '20. Trump won in '16. Obama won in '12.

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🤑 McConnell's extreme tab

Data: AdImpact; Note: Includes current ads and future reservations; Chart: Axios Visuals The super PAC linked to Sen. Mitch McConnell is spending more on Ohio challenger Bernie Moreno than any other GOP Senate candidate this year. Why it matters: Moreno is the Kentucky senator's best chance to win 52 seats. It's costing McConnell-linked groups a pretty penny in the most expensive congressional race of the cycle — by a long shot. The intrigue: The gap between the Senate Leadership Fund's Ohio investment and the Moreno campaign's own spending is a source of quiet frustration for some of D.C.'s top GOP strategists. They privately think Moreno should have done more campaigning over the summer — and spent more of his own money — to introduce himself to voters. "This race would already be over" had he done so, said one Republican strategist. What we're hearing: One national GOP operative close to the campaign said the criticism is based on old-school ways of campaigning that don't work anymore. They added Moreno's team intentionally focused significant advertising on streaming platforms over the summer, which is not captured in the AdImpact data. "We are focused on winning. We recognize the armchair quarterbacks don't quite understand what that looks like," Moreno spokesperson Reagan McCarthy told Axios in a statement. Between the lines: McConnell reportedly preferred Matt Dolan over Moreno in the Ohio primary as the best choice to finally take down Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a state that favored Donald Trump by eight percentage points in 2020. Sources close to the Moreno campaign say their latest polling shows Moreno increasing his lead to six points. By the numbers: SLF and related groups have spent nearly double on TV and digital ads to bolster Moreno than on the next priciest race — $161 million compared to $83 million for David McCormick in Pennsylvania, according to AdImpact. The Moreno campaign has spent roughly $26 million on ads of its own, in coordination with NRSC or via its joint fundraising committee. It's a much smaller share of the overall ad spending this year than other GOP campaigns. But when accounting for price disparities, the share of Moreno ads coming from super PACs this year is roughly in line with Pennsylvania, another top race. — Stef W. Kight and Hans Nichols 🔮 Schumer's mystery You couldn't script a closer finish for Chuck Schumer as he stares down the potential end of his Senate majority. Why it matters: At least seven races are within the margin of error. A point or two in either direction could wildly swing the Senate balance of power. 😅 Just look at the current polling averages from RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) up 0.8 percentage points. Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) up 1 Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D) up 2.6 Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) up 3 Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) up 4 Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) up 4.1 Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) up 4.6 Montana: Tim Sheehy (R) up 6.5 🗳 Scoop: Arizona reinforcements A voter registration group led by former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has helped to enroll some 36,000 new voters in Arizona, we have learned. Why it matters: Increments are a big deal in Arizona, where Trump lost in 2020 by 11,000 votes. Arizona's Senate race between GOP nominee Kari Lake and Democratic nominee Rep. Ruben Gallego is currently rated "lean Democratic" and the state features several House "toss-up" races. The voters registered by Ducey's group are disengaged "economic conservatives." The group expects them to vote Republican. Citizens for Free Enterprise, launched in June 2023, has spent some $12 million focused on voter registration in Arizona and Georgia over the last year, according to FEC reports. In Georgia, which Biden won by 12,000 votes, organizers claim they have registered more than 34,000 new voters. Zoom in: In Arizona, Republicans have added to their registration advantage over Democrats, with 1,562,091 Republicans on the rolls compared to 1,266,536 Democrats, according to the Phoenix NBC affiliate. That adds up to a nearly six-point advantage, compared to the three-point advantage the GOP had four years ago. Registered Republicans have been outpacing Democrats in early voting in Arizona, Axios Phoenix has reported. — Hans Nichols 📺 Spotlight: Montana's ad war Montana Democrats are crossing their fingers that attack ads about Republican GOP nominee Tim Sheehy's combat record have started to resonate. Zoom in: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who Sheehy is challenging, and other Democrats are airing ads arguing Sheehy lied about being shot in Afghanistan. They say he was wounded in an accident at a Montana national park, which the New York Times and Washington Post have reported. But the Sheehy camp has blasted the ads as a smear campaign, and a group of Navy SEALs who served with Sheehy are defending his character. A number of people who have raised questions about Sheehy's gunshot wound have been criticized for critiquing Republicans in the past. Democrats have spent around $3.5 million on at least five ads in the state focusing on the controversy in recent weeks. Sheehy and Republicans are up with ads of their own disputing the claims. The bottom line: A spokesperson for Sheehy was clear that the Republican was shot in the arm while in Afghanistan. "Tim never reported it because he didn't want to trigger an investigation of his team, be pulled from the battlefield, and see a fellow teammate be punished," the spokesperson told us. "It was always about protecting a fellow team member of his unit he thought could have been responsible due to friendly fire ricochet in the heat of an engagement with the enemy." — Stephen Neukam

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It’s a fight to the finish in races that will determine control of Congress

The outcome of Tuesday’s election will shape the country’s future, determining whether the new White House has allies or skeptics on Capitol Hill — or faces a divided Congress like this past session, which has been among the most tumultuous and unproductive in modern times. Read more.   GOP Candidate Runs From Anti-Abortion Record in Tight Gubernatorial Race Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte says she’d oppose new abortion restrictions in New Hampshire — but she hasn’t disavowed her previous anti-abortion stances. https://theintercept.com/2024/11/02/new-hampshire-governor-abortion-kelly-ayotte/?

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🥂 ☕️ How the leaders watch

A few select races will tell Congress' top leaders whether it's champagne or coffee on the menu — even if we don't have definitive results tomorrow night.

Why it matters: You'll have to try harder than isolating a single county, district or precinct. But you can score a clearer picture by piecing together certain demographic groups from early returns.

6pm ET: The early Midwest indicator. Polls close in parts of Indiana, where Republicans are watching the governor's race.

• "If Trump is not doing 55%+, it could be a bad Midwest indicator for Republicans," said former Rep Tom Davis, who ran the NRCC for several cycles.

7pm ET: Educated exurban voters.

• If GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans is upset in Virginia's 2nd District, a classic swing district, House Republicans are going to be very worried.
• If Democrats lose Virginia's 7th District, currently held by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, they'll will begin to get very panicky. They might have a problem with educated exurban voters.

7:30pm ET: Clearer picture of the Black vote.

• "On election night, I'm looking at [North Carolina's 1st District as to] whether or not Kamala Harris energized Black voter turnout," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told us.

7:30pm ET: Which way, and how fast, the Ohio Senate race is decided.

• NRSC executive director Jason Thielman told us he thinks Ohio could be called for Republican Bernie Moreno early tomorrow night — which would likely ensure a GOP Senate majority.
• If Sen. Sherrod Brown holds on, Republicans might have to wait until Montana closes at 10pm ET. That's where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has been a top target for Republicans as he battles Tim Sheehy.

8pm ET: White union households, state workers and college kids, via Michigan.

• Democrats and Republicans will be looking at the Lansing area U.S. House seat for a read on how white union households and state government workers are trending. Biden won that 7th District seat — now held by Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who's running for Senate — by less than a point in 2020.
• "MI-07 is a must win on both sides and will have implications for both the presidential and Senate election in the state," Emmer said. "House Republicans are right where we need to be."

— Hans Nichols, Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam

🐦 The House canaries

In the House, Hakeem Jeffries' Democrats think if they have a good showing against Florida GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna or Maria Salazar in the state's 13th and 27th districts, it will mean a great night for them overall.

• Republicans go in as favorites in both districts.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans are keeping a close eye on Democratic Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in the state's 7th and 8th districts, while Democrats are watching GOP Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) in the 10th District.

• All three races are toss-ups.

In New York, polls don't close until 9pm ET and mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted until a week after Nov. 5, but the sheer number of battleground districts makes it worth watching.

• A decisive result in New York's 19th District, where Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) is fighting for reelection, could preview the night ahead.

— Andrew Solender

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Black women notch historic Senate wins in an election year defined by potential firsts

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters for the first time elected two Black women to serve simultaneously in the Senate and sent an openly transgender lawmaker to Congress on Tuesday. They’re among historic choices in nearly a dozen races showing Americans opting for more diverse representation, even as Vice President Kamala Harris lost her own historic bid for the White House.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2024-historic-firsts-lisa-blunt-rochester-angela-alsobrooks-b57c89eb263e47071853372e91177256?

Democrat Sarah McBride of Delaware to become first openly transgender person to serve in Congress

DOVER, Del. (AP) — Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride has been elected to the U.S. House and will become the first openly transgender person to serve in Congress.

https://apnews.com/article/delaware-house-race-election-mcbride-whalen-4a80f4a9852240a890bb820c53ef882b?

California voters pass initiative to make some shoplifting and drug offenses felonies

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California voters decided on 10 ballot measures including one that would turn some nonviolent crimes, like shoplifting, into felonies again, and another that would make the state’s minimum wage the highest in the nation.

https://apnews.com/article/california-ballot-propositions-2024-election-7e6c94f6d4d1f5660af1e4f326bd03ff?

Washington voters uphold landmark climate law against challenge from conservatives

OLYMPIA, Wash. (AP) — Voters in Washington state on Tuesday upheld a groundbreaking law that is forcing companies to cut carbon emissions while raising billions of dollars for programs that include habitat restoration and preparing for climate change.

https://apnews.com/article/washington-climate-law-repeal-initiative-vote-bbac4bb2601db447d783ba5c511c9cbd?

Republican US Rep. Lauren Boebert wins after switching districts in Colorado

WINDSOR, Colo. (AP) — Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert won a House seat Tuesday in a Colorado district where she moved midway through her term to avoid what would have been a tough reelection bid in her old district.

https://apnews.com/article/lauren-boebert-calvarese-frisch-hurd-election-2024-747b0005f0c421df43f1d23ba3cefa1c?

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San Francisco’s first Black female mayor concedes to Levi Strauss heir

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — San Francisco’s first Black female mayor, London Breed, conceded the race for mayor to Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie on Thursday, pledging a smooth transition as he takes over the job.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2024-san-francisco-mayor-london-breed-ac264545c15b2032df30b40fc17b3440?

In Portland, Oregon, political outsider Keith Wilson elected mayor after homelessness-focused race

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Voters in Portland, Oregon, have elected political outsider Keith Wilson as their new mayor, following a campaign in which he capitalized on years of growing frustration over homeless encampments, open drug use and quality of life concerns to outperform three City Council members — including one ensnared in a driving record scandal — who had also sought to lead the city.

https://apnews.com/article/portland-oregon-mayor-keith-wilson-homelessness-ba9c06e72d9de6d71bb9b5fa65ffa422?

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Andy Kim says his win has changed Jersey politics ‘forever.’ Let’s hope.

New Jersey Democrats had a terrible Election Day, but a bright spot for them occurred with Rep. Andy Kim’s victory in the U.S. Senate race.

https://newjerseymonitor.com/2024/11/08/andy-kim-says-his-win-has-changed-jersey-politics-forever-lets-hope/?

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Republican US Rep. Eli Crane wins second term in vast Arizona congressional district

PHOENIX (AP) — Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane won reelection in a Republican-leaning congressional district covering vast swaths of rural Arizona.

https://apnews.com/article/arizona-house-crane-nez-congress-election-2024-6b00c449926594fdb5da3cde6f5855f1?

A record 13 women will be governors next year after New Hampshire elected Kelly Ayotte

The election of Republican Kelly Ayotte as New Hampshire’s governor means 13 women will serve as a state’s chief executive next year, breaking the record of 12 set after the 2022 elections. Read More.

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Democrat Janelle Bynum flips Oregon’s 5th District, will be state’s first Black member of Congress

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Democrat Janelle Bynum has flipped Oregon’s 5th Congressional District and will become the state’s first Black member of Congress.

https://apnews.com/article/oregon-house-congress-5th-district-5e9e1ded3b27209d48e835c873bca179?

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Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde concedes defeat to Democrat Tammy Baldwin in US Senate race

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde conceded defeat on Monday to Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin in their U.S. Senate race, saying he did not want to “add to political strife through a contentious recount” even though he raised debunked election conspiracies.

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-senate-hovde-baldwin-recount-0af5107044b5fa2c24fe99e6d7ab5271?

Pennsylvania’s high court orders counties not to count disputed ballots in US Senate race Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court on Monday weighed in on ongoing vote counting in the U.S. Senate election between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick, ordering counties not to count mail-in ballots that lack a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. Statewide, the number of mail-in ballots with wrong or missing dates on the return envelope could be in the thousands. Read more.

Why this matters: The order is a win for McCormick and a loss for Casey as the campaigns prepare for a statewide recount and press counties for favorable ballot-counting decisions while election workers are sorting through thousands of provisional ballots. McCormick’s campaign called it a “massive setback” for Casey.   The Associated Press called the race for McCormick last week, concluding that not enough ballots remained to be counted in areas Casey was winning for him to take the lead. As of Monday, McCormick led by about 17,000 votes out of almost 7 million ballots counted — inside the 0.5% margin threshold to trigger an automatic statewide recount under Pennsylvania law.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Georgia appeals court cancels hearing in election interference case against Trump   Trump says he is naming former Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy to be transportation secretary   Local Washington officials brace for four years of playing defense against Trump   MSNBC ‘Morning Joe’ hosts meet with Trump to reopen lines of communication   Ruben Gallego did better than most Democrats. He says his party needs to stoke working class roots

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A California Republican won a seat he didn’t want. Now taxpayers are paying for a new election

San Joaquin Valley Republican Vince Fong was on the ballot this fall for an Assembly race, but he didn’t want to win it. After all, he left that job for Congress earlier this year, and he planned to stay in the nation’s capital.

https://apnews.com/us-news/california-bakersfield-general-news-b82e9e1664af06442d26c6246c378f10?

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A power grab by Republicans in North Carolina becomes a referendum on democracy in the states

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Democrats in North Carolina were celebrating big wins in the swing state after the November election, including victories in races for governor and other top statewide offices. But the political high didn’t last long.

https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-republicans-democrats-power-grab-democracy-f727f67e220a81cbbdf86540e67d7b93?