Other Races for 2023/24

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💸 GOP spending more than Dems on political ads

By Kate Murphy

Data: AdImpact; Note: "Campaigns" include spending by candidates or in coordination with party committees; "Outside groups" includes spending by non-candidate groups and party committees; Chart: Axios Visuals Republicans are outspending Democrats on political ads in San Diego as the November election approaches but not by much. By the numbers: Campaigns and committees spent at least $2.7 million on ads from Aug. 1 through Sept. 20, according to data from analytics platform AdImpact. Republicans have spent $1.4 million, compared to $1.3 million by Democrats. Nearly all of that money is coming from candidates' campaigns, and it includes presidential, congressional and down-ballot races. Yes, but: San Diego stands out from the national trend that shows Democrats are outspending Republicans by about a half-billion dollars. The big picture: Political ad spending locally is a fraction of what cities in battleground states are seeing. Both parties are spending tens of millions of dollars on ads running in Philadelphia ($218 million), Detroit ($196 million) and Phoenix ($164 million). Between the lines: Political action committees have planned to spend millions on ads around six key U.S. House races in California that could help determine which party controls Congress in 2025. Keep reading

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🎯 McConnell's new target

Mitch McConnell is lighting up the Senate's other toss-up race, putting urgent pressure on Chuck Schumer's fight to save the Democratic majority.

Why it matters: Ohio and Montana have gotten the attention this year, but Michigan's Senate race is one of only two toss-ups left with Ohio in the Cook Political Report ratings. Montana is now rated lean Republican.

• Michigan's open seat ups the difficulty: Schumer won't benefit from a strong incumbent like Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

💰 Scoop: Another $8 million in statewide ads is coming from the super PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fund, which supports Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers, we have exclusively learned. The buy doubles the super PAC's investment so far this year.

• Add that to the $22.5 million coming from the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, as the Wall Street Journal reported this morning. SLF had not previously spent in Michigan.

Zoom in: The Democratic Senate campaign arm has spent nearly $22 million in the state this year.

• 😰 We reported in yesterday's Sneak that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), the Democratic candidate in the race, told donors last week that Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in the state.

Slotkin has an average polling lead of 4.6% in the Senate race, according to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

• Republican internal polling shows the candidates are statistically tied, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The big picture: McConnell takes the majority if the GOP can win a single race among Montana, Ohio or Michigan — or pull off a surprise in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Maryland.

• Schumer has far fewer options, with Democrats chasing long-shots in Texas and Florida to make up any losses in the races listed above. In Nebraska, they're cheering on an independent challenger to GOP incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer.
• "We're keeping an eye on Texas and in Florida, and maybe half an eye on Nebraska," SLF president Steven Law told the Journal.

— Stephen Neukam

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👀 Surprise Trump effect

Data: Real Clear Politics; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and NRSC Chair Steve Daines are grappling with an uncomfortable reality: Republican Senate challengers are lagging well behind former President Trump in public surveys. Why it matters: The polling gap has baffled Republican candidates and strategists, who expected it to collapse as November neared. Its persistence is a warning for the Republican high command that a close Trump victory in any given swing state doesn't guarantee a GOP Senate seat — even if it also signals a bloc of still-persuadable voters. It could herald the return of something McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have seen vanish in the last two presidential races: The split-ticket voter. 🔎 Between the lines: There are several theories about why Senate Republicans lag behind their presidential candidate, including a lack of name ID and getting outspent. Then there's the Trump factor. The former president appeals to many nontraditional Republicans and former working-class Democrats. Trump is "outperforming other Republicans because his base is broader than the traditional GOP coalition," Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told us. "Republicans should follow his lead to make our entire party stronger after November and cement the GOP as the party of the working class," Banks, who is running for Senate, said. 🔭 Zoom in: In contested elections, the gap is most pronounced in Ohio. Trump is running 8.7 percentage points ahead of GOP Senate nominee Bernie Moreno, according to RealClearPolitics averages. The narrowest margin is in Wisconsin, where Trump is polling ahead of Eric Hovde by 2.2 percentage points. Both candidates are under 50%. One notable exception: Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is running nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in the deep blue state of Maryland. Hogan hasn't been shy about distancing himself from Trump and even rejected his endorsement. The other side: On the Democratic side, the trend is reversed, but the margins are much smaller. In four of the five battleground states that also have a tight Senate race, Vice President Kamala Harris trails her party's candidate by one or two points — and sometimes less. In Michigan, she's running a point ahead of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). President Biden was lagging behind his party's Senate candidates by bigger percentages before dropping out, but Harris has nearly erased the gap. What they're saying: "Democrat incumbents have maxed out their name ID and Democrat vote share, which is why they are matching Kamala Harris' ballot numbers," NRSC spokesperson Mike Berg told us. "We are already seeing positive movement in our polls, and we expect continued positive movement over the next five weeks," he added. DSCC spokesperson David Bergstein told us: "Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed candidates, and their lies, scandals and baggage repel voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans." — Hans Nichols and Stef Kight 🤠 Schumer's Texas dream Schumer's best shot (and it's a LONG shot) at keeping the Senate majority seems to run through Texas. Why it matters: Democrats won't concede Montana, now rated "lean Republican." But if Schumer loses there, he'll need a Texas miracle. 🤠 Enter a ratings change. Cook Political Report now says Texas is "lean Republican," after listing it as "likely Republican" for most of the cycle. The "Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but [Democratic nominee Rep. Colin] Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted today. Reality check: Sen. Ted Cruz losing in Texas would be a far bigger shocker than Sen. Jon Tester losing in Montana. Cruz leads Allred by five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Tester trails GOP challenger Tim Sheehy by nearly six percentage points in the RCP polling average. In 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.

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Striking-distance Senate race

The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D) is edging closer, according to a new analysis by the Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: Democrats are banking on a Hail Mary in Texas to keep the Senate majority if they lose the contested Montana race, now rated "lean Republican" by the nonpartisan organization.

• At stake are the confirmation of judges, the ability to approve or reject bills out of the House and control of investigative hearings.

Driving the news: The Cruz vs. Allred race is now "lean Republican," after being rated as "likely Republican" for most of the 2024 election cycle, according to the group's latest ratings.

The big picture "[The] Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted on X.

Reality check: A loss for Cruz, the state's junior senator since 2012, would be a far bigger shocker than incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) losing in Montana.

Flashback: Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. But, in 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.

The latest: Cruz leads Allred by 5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

• While Texas remains a GOP stronghold, it has become more diverse — something Cruz seems to be responding to as he rebrands himself.
• Allred, a fundraising juggernaut, has targeted moderate and independent voters by supporting oil and gas jobs, advocating for incremental health care reforms and promoting a tough border position.

What's next: Allred is campaigning across the state this week. Cruz is launching his bus tour tomorrow.

• Their first debate is Oct. 15.

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Mucarsel-Powell calls Rick Scott’s reluctance to debate a ‘dereliction of duty’

With a month to go before Election Day, it looks increasingly like Florida voters won’t have the opportunity to size up the two major candidates for the U.S. Senate seat in a televised debate.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/04/mucarsel-powell-calls-rick-scotts-reluctance-to-debate-a-dereliction-of-duty/?