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🛤️ Congress off the rails

 
Illustration of the Capitol Dome with hands pointing out from behind it
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

House members finally reached their August recess this weekend after a string of unusual, and at times contentious, incidents that clouded efforts to avoid a government shutdown — and signaled that they needed a timeout, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke writes.

  • The big picture: The House has had a long year, from January's marathon speaker election to May and June's close call on defaulting on the federal debt — not to mention conservatives' unprecedented tactics to grind the House floor to a halt.
  • Add a surge in personal confrontations and bizarre incidents, and you've got a recipe for dysfunction.

💼 Case in point: Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) was slammed by members on both sides of the aisle following a profanity-laced encounter involving the Wisconsin Republican screaming at a group of teenage Senate pages.

  • Speaker McCarthy and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) — who have long had a combative relationship — reportedly threatened to fight each other, with Swalwell calling McCarthy a p**sy on the House floor in June, according to The Daily Beast.
  • In another House floor incident, conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) called Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) a "little b**ch" after she introduced a competing impeachment bill.

Multiple congressional staffers told Axios it was clear members need to get out of D.C.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Senate tilting red, House blue for '24

 
Illustration of the U.S. Capitol over a divided blue and red background with elements of ballots.
 

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

The possibility of a split congressional decision in 2024, with the Senate flipping to Republicans and the House turning over to Democrats, is looking increasingly likely.

Why it matters: By pursuing an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, House GOP leaders are making life awfully tough for their 18 vulnerable Republicans representing Biden 2020 districts. Threats of a government shutdown from GOP hardliners don't help either.

  • Meanwhile, Biden's persistently low approval ratings are making it very difficult for red-state Democratic senators vying for re-election — West Virginia's Joe Manchin, Montana's Jon Tester and Ohio's Sherrod Brown — to win enough split-ticket voters at a time of record polarization.

By the numbers: To win back control of the Senate, Republicans only need to net two seats (one if the GOP presidential nominee prevails).

  • The 2024 Senate map is historically favorable for Republicans: Republicans are aggressively contesting at least eight Democratic-held seats with Democrats hoping — in a best-case scenario — of putting Sen. Ted Cruz's Texas seat in play.
  • But House Republicans are in an equally precarious position. To win back control of the House, Democrats only need to flip a net five seats. A new House race analysis from Inside Elections (subscription) rates 11 seats as toss-ups — seven held by Republicans, and four by Democrats.

Between the lines: House GOP and Senate Democratic leaders are employing two strategies to protect their most vulnerable members.

  • House GOP leaders have encouraged unity within their conference, with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) trying — often awkwardly — to find a middle ground that can satisfy both the pragmatists and the hardliners.
  • It's notable that politically vulnerable House Republicans haven’t spoken out against the pursuit of an impeachment inquiry against Biden, even though they’ll need to win over Biden voters to secure re-election.
  • By contrast, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is content to let his red-state senators demonstrate some independence from the White House (at least in an election year).

Driving the news: House Democrats have been getting favorable news on the redistricting front, with court decisions boosting their chances of picking up a seat in three Southern states: Alabama, Florida and Louisiana.

  • Democrats also have a reasonable chance of netting several additional seats if New York is ordered to redraw its congressional lines for 2024. The case will be decided later this year.
  • On the flip side, Republicans are expected to gain several seats from North Carolina's GOP-controlled redistricting.

Zoom in: Republicans and Democrats are tied on the congressional generic ballot at 44%, according to RealClearPolitics' polling average, with polls showing both parties are viewed unfavorably by most voters.

  • Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45.6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average.

The bottom line: The country is deeply divided, which foreshadows the likelihood of split government continuing past next year.

  • Political sentiment has remained remarkably stable over the last year — even in light of major political developments, like Trump's indictments. That's unlikely to change heading into 2024.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Senate confirms joint chiefs chair

The Senate voted to 83-11 confirm Gen. Charles Q. "CQ" Brown Jr., 60, a career fighter pilot, as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — succeeding retiring Gen. Mark Milley as the nation's top military officer.

  • Why it matters: Democrats circumvented Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who is blocking confirmation of hundreds of military nominations and promotions to protest the Pentagon's abortion travel policy, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

After Milley retires at the end of the month, it'll be the first time the Pentagon's top two posts have been held by African Americans, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as top civilian leader.

🏛️ What's happening: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also teed up votes to confirm Gen. Randy George as Army chief of staff and Gen. Eric Smith as Marine Corps commandant.

  • Because of Tuberville's blockade, the military has been forced to operate without Senate-confirmed commandants at the top of three services — Army, Navy, Marines — for the first time.

🥊 Reality check: This doesn't end Tuberville's blockade. Schumer opted to spend floor time to confirm Brown, but can't do so for all 300+ nominees Tuberville is blocking.

  • Asked whether he plans to maintain his hold on other military nominees, Tuberville told Axios: "Oh yeah!"

Gen. Brown's bio ...

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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Zelensky's frosty welcome

Nine months ago today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky secretly left his war-torn country for the first time to deliver an emotional joint address to Congress.

  • The two-minute standing ovation he received — from both Democrats and Republicans — looks like a distant dream compared to what he faced on his second wartime trip to Washington today.

Why it matters: President Biden's vow to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes" is at serious risk of being undermined.

  • The effectiveness of Zelensky's personal appeals has also been challenged, as dozens of Republicans used his visit as an occasion to snub Ukraine's requests and mock its wartime leader.

Driving the news: Led by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), six Republican senators and 22 House members sent a letter to the White House today opposing Biden's request for $24 billion in additional aid for Ukraine.

  • House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) privately met with Zelensky but denied his request to address a joint session of Congress. "We just didn't have time," the embattled speaker told reporters.
  • Under pressure from conservative hardliners who are refusing to allow a vote on funding the Pentagon, GOP leadership is now considering stripping any Ukraine-related provisions from the bill as Republicans struggle to avert a government shutdown.
  • "There's no money in the House right now for Ukraine," Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), a member of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, told reporters. "It's not a good time for [Zelensky] to be here, quite frankly."

Between the lines: It's not just Republicans who disappointed Zelensky.

  • The Biden administration has opted not to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles known as ATACMS that would allow Kyiv to strike well behind Russian lines.
  • Biden "is not taking it off the table in the future," national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, but the decision came as a disappointment to Ukrainian officials who were optimistic the request would be met.
  • Back in Europe, the Polish government announced it would stop sending arms to Ukraine as tensions between the two close allies have spiraled over grain imports.

The other side: The White House and the vast majority of senators remain united behind Ukraine, with Biden announcing a new aid package with "significant air defense capabilities" after meeting with Zelensky.

  • The Pentagon also plans to exempt Ukraine operations in the event of a government shutdown on Oct. 1, allowing training on American weapons and tactics to continue, Politico reports.

The bottom line: "There was a single sentence that summed it all up, and I'm quoting him verbatim," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters after meeting with Zelensky. "'If we don't get the aid, we will lose the war.'"

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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🌭 Parting shot: Bipartisan BBQ

 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Photo: Courtesy of Sen. Chris Coons' office

Amid the chaos of Congress, senators sat down today for something they only do once a year: a bipartisan lunch.

Driving the news: Nearly 60 senators had a taste of the South — barbecue from Georgia — in the Kennedy Caucus Room, continuing a tradition started by the late Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) some 14 years ago, Hans reports.

  • This year, Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) were the hosts, bringing in over 400 pounds of brisket, ribs and pulled pork from Bub-Ba-Q in Georgia.
  • "This is literally the only time in the entire year that the entire Senate — Republicans and Democrats — sits down and eats together," Coons told Axios.

What we're hearing: Sports and smack talk dominated the conversations around the bipartisan tables, where senators were encouraged to sit with a colleague from the opposite party — and someone they didn't know particularly well.

phkrause

By the decree enforcing the institution of the papacy in violation of the law of God, our nation will disconnect herself fully from righteousness. When Protestantism shall stretch her hand across the gulf to grasp the hand of the Roman power, when she shall reach over the abyss to clasp hands with spiritualism, when, under the influence of this threefold union, our country shall repudiate every principle of its Constitution as a Protestant and republican government, and shall make provision for the propagation of papal falsehoods and delusions, then we may know that the time has come for the marvelous working of Satan and that the end is near. {5T 451.1}
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