Congress: The Senate & The House

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Trade war fight

Top Senate Republicans are breaking with former President Trump over his plan to impose across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the country.

Why it matters: Trump, who imposed sweeping tariffs on China, the European Union and other countries during his first term, is eyeing a new global trade war with proposed levies of 60% or more on Chinese goods.

• When asked if they supported the blanket 10% tariff on imports that Trump has floated, two of the top candidates to be the next Senate GOP leader left lots of daylight with their party leader.
• Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios that "uniform, across-the-board tariffs is not something I have been for in the past."
• Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) described across-the-board tariffs as potentially "problematic."

Between the lines: Some senators suggested the former president ultimately could be convinced to soften his plan, with many expressing concerns about the inflationary effects of universal 10% tariffs.

• Cornyn said he thinks Trump is "demonstrating he believes that tariffs should be used to rebalance unfair trading relationships" for countries such as China, an approach he generally supports.

Zoom in: Republicans have made it a cornerstone of their campaigns this year to slam President Biden for policies they argue spurred red-hot inflation.

• Now Republican lawmakers are in the tricky position of heading home to meet constituents with a candidate at the top of the ticket eyeing trade policies economists believe could trigger a new rise in consumer prices.
• "I think ultimately tariffs results in higher prices for consumers," Cornyn said.

The other side: "By cutting regulations and taxes and using the leverage of the United States to negotiate better trade deals around the world, President Trump built the strongest economy in American history," Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

• Leavitt went on to criticize Vice President Harris' "out of control spending" as part of the Biden administration, which she said "created the worst inflation crisis in generations."

Go deeper.

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Schumer eyes Trump's judges tally

Senate Democrats are approaching a critical benchmark in confirming judges nominated by President Biden, but November's election will determine how quickly they get there.

Why it matters: Senate Republicans under the Trump administration confirmed 234 federal judges, a number Democrats have made a priority to eclipse.

• But if Democrats hold their Senate majority and keep the White House in November, it gives them a longer runway to confirm their nominations.
• Biden and Trump have confirmed the exact same number of federal judges — 205— at this point in their terms.
• If Democrats lose the Senate, it will be a race against time for Schumer to confirm judicial nominations before a new Congress is sworn in.

The bottom line: Democrats are very unlikely to keep hold of their Senate majority because of a tough electoral map this year.

• There will be intense urgency from Schumer to confirm judges before a new Congress is sworn in if they lose the Senate in November, with very limited time.

Go deeper.

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AIPAC's bitter Squad fight

The pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC is pouring money into its effort to take out a second member of the progressive "Squad" this cycle, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.)— and the fight is turning predictably bitter.

Why it matters: Polling suggests Bush, a prominent progressive, is in serious danger of losing her re-election battle to local prosecutor Wesley Bell.

• She would be the second Squad member to lose to a well-funded primary challenger backed by pro-Israel groups, following Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.).
• Bush has become a target this cycle due to her strident criticism of Israel, with multiple federal investigations into her campaign finances creating an opening for a credible primary challenge.

By the numbers: United Democracy Project, AIPAC's political arm, has spent nearly $9 million on ads to boost Bell, according to data from tracking firm AdImpact.

• Bush's campaign has spent just $1 million on ads, backed up by $2.2 million from the progressive group Justice Democrats.

Go deeper.

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Chair of U.S. Senate tax panel probes GOP megadonor’s travel gifts to Clarence Thomas

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden urged billionaire GOP donor Harlan Crow’s attorney to provide details Monday on exactly when Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas stepped foot on Crow’s private jet and yacht, and whether the donor deducted the trips on his taxes.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/08/05/chair-of-u-s-senate-tax-panel-probes-gop-megadonors-travel-gifts-to-clarence-thomas/?

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Schumer's dream

One clear winner from today was Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Axios' Stephen Neukam reports.

Why it matters: Walz being tapped as the Democratic vice presidential nominee has handed the New York Democrat a trio of long-term Senate wins.

1. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was a finalist for the VP job, but losing him would have forced a special election for his seat in 2026. It's unlikely the party would've found a non-incumbent candidate with a better chance than Kelly of keeping the seat blue.
2. Speaking of 2026, Democratic sources told Axios that Schumer should prioritize recruiting popular North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper to run for Senate in two years, when Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is up for re-election. Local reports have suggested Cooper — who was in the VP conversation —would be open to the idea of running for Senate.
3. Walz on the ticket could help Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who are up for re-election this year in key Midwestern states.

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Recess supercharges McConnell succession race

The senators vying to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as GOP leader are packing their August recess with campaign travel and fundraisers as they jockey for votes from current and prospective colleagues.

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) flew to Wisconsin last week to fundraise with Eric Hovde, and then joined Dave McCormick's bus tour in Pennsylvania.

• He'll head to Utah, Nevada and Ohio in the coming weeks, according to a source familiar with his schedule.
• He has raised more than $19 million this cycle and will headline at least 170 events for candidates and the NRSC.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has raised nearly $23 million this cycle through various apparatuses, according to a source familiar.

• Cornyn is also planning trips to battleground states, including Pennsylvania.
• "Sen. Cornyn is spending the summer doing what he's done for 15 years: crisscrossing Texas and the country to help his Republican colleagues and candidates, including President Trump," a Cornyn spokesperson told Axios.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) will be spending most of his time in Florida, where he is up for re-election himself in a competitive state, a campaign spokesperson told Axios.

• Multiple Senate campaigns have neither heard from Scott nor received a check from him, sources familiar told Axios.
• His PAC has given tens of thousands of dollars this cycle to the NRSC and the campaigns of Moreno, Sam Brown in Nevada and Virginia's Hung Cao — as well as other less competitive Senate campaigns — according to a source familiar.

Go deeper

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Breaking past Biden

By Andrew Solender and Alex Thompson

House Democrats are giddy about a Kamala Harris-Tim Walz administration as a clean break from the long-simmering perception that the Biden team favored the Senate, Axios has learned. Why it matters: "The House would get screwed [under President Biden], we'd get asked to take tough votes and then after those votes were on record, he'd veto or do whatever he did," one senior House Democrat told us. "It was apparent on so many occasions he had what [Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi] would call Senate-itis," said Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) — referencing the decades Biden spent in the Senate before becoming vice president. Between the lines: There was a strong feeling Biden favored the Senate during his first two years in office. He let then-Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer run the show during negotiations over his signature pieces of legislation. Staffing mattered too: Louisa Terrell, Biden's first head of legislative affairs, had a Senate-stacked resume before joining the White House. Shuwanza Goff, Biden's second head of legislative affairs, is a House person and that has helped smooth things over a bit. Zoom in: Several Democrats pointed us to an incident last year in which Biden left House Democrats fuming by waiting until after they'd voted on a controversial D.C. police reform bill to give senators cover to vote against it. Another example: Some rank-and-file House members held off on calling for Biden to drop his bid for re-election out of a belief that he would only listen to input from senators and a handful of House icons like Pelosi. Zoom out: Gov. Walz's 12-year tenure in the House is "one of the reasons" Pelosi pushed Vice President Harris to pick him as her running mate, the senior House Dem told us. Harris would focus on building relationships with House Democratic leadership, especially House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.). "I think Tim is going to become a de facto office of congressional relations ... he's got, obviously, a huge reach in the House," said Takano. The bottom line: "I am very hopeful and biased that they are the right partnership to work with us," Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), a former Black Caucus chair, told us in an interview.

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🐘 Scoop: Harris-Walz probes

Some House GOP lawmakers fear their party's new investigations into Vice President Harris and Gov. Tim Walz could potentially backfire politically, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

• Why it matters: House Republicans have unleashed a barrage of investigations targeting Harris and Walz in the run-up to the Democratic convention.

Several House Republicans argued the investigations stand in for the scrutiny that would have come from a competitive Democratic primary, which Harris sidestepped by replacing Biden on the ticket.

1. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) launched a probe into Walz over his ties to China.
2. Comer has also been investigating Harris for her role as the Biden administration's point person on the sources of migration to the U.S.
3. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the House Armed Services subcommittee on military personnel, is investigating Walz for how he represented his record in the Army National Guard.

A House Republican told us: "We have an election to win. Don't make these people martyrs."

 

ps:And the stupidity continues!!!!!!!!!

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New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez will resign from Senate after bribery convictions

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez is slated to resign by the end of the day Tuesday, about a month after a jury convicted him on federal bribery charges.

https://apnews.com/article/bob-menendez-new-jersey-senate-resignation-9941e49020a032da3861f5f5cf118ec2?

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Schumer's Senate nuke

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has single-handedly raised the stakes of the 2024 elections by revealing he'd consider making it easier on Democrats to pass votes on protecting voting and abortion rights.

• But Schumer will need to avoid losing the Senate majority for the idea to pay off.

Why it matters: It's the most aggressive plan outlined by a Democratic leader on how the party would codify Roe v. Wade.

• Schumer's plan would move the Senate closer to getting rid of the filibuster, a longtime rule that requires 60 votes instead of a simple 50-vote majority to advance legislation.
• Schumer said he has a chance at getting it done in 2025 because Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) are leaving the Senate. They opposed skirting the filibuster.

The bottom line: Multiple Democratic sources told Axios there were more than two Democrats privately opposed to the filibuster carve-out in 2022.

• If the same level of opposition continues, the sources said, it would be a heavier lift for Schumer to bypass the filibuster for abortion and voting rights than he thinks.

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McConnell's big fear

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to stop a government shutdown fight, Axios' Stef Kight and Juliegrace Brufke have learned.

• Top McConnell staffers have been working behind the scenes to get House conservatives to drop their demands for an immigrant voting crackdown as part of a short-term funding bill, sources tell us.

Why it matters: Senate GOP leaders are afraid that adding conditions to government funding would open the door for Democrats to tack on their own legislation.

• The John Lewis Voting Rights Act — a Democrat priority that seeks to restore parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act — was specifically discussed as a possibility in a recent meeting with other GOP offices, two GOP aides familiar with the conversation told us.
• McConnell, 82, is stepping aside as Senate GOP leader after the election.
• His staffers urged conservatives in the Senate and the House to keep the precedent of passing clean short-term-funding bills.

Zoom in: Republicans have latched on to the idea of immigrant voting fraud as a top campaign rallying cry, connecting two issues that resonate strongly with their base — illegal immigration at the border and election fraud.

• The SAVE Act, which requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote, passed the House last month with the backing of five vulnerable Democrats.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has signaled he's open to attaching it to a funding bill.
• Former President Trump urged Republicans last month to "pass the Save Act, or go home and cry yourself to sleep."

👀 The House GOP's proposal would almost certainly be dead-on-arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

• President Biden "strongly opposes" the SAVE Act, the White House said earlier this summer. That reality helps explain the pushback from McConnell's team.

The bottom line: Instances of non-citizens wrongfully voting or registering to vote are rare.

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Biden impeachment fury

House Republicans are furious about being forced into a last-minute Biden impeachment vote — which they say could hurt their campaigns, top GOP sources tell Axios' Juliegrace Brufke.

Why it matters: Even leadership doesn't want it. But just one member can force a vote.

• 🔎 Watch hardliners — Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) or Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) — as most likely to pull the trigger, sources tell us.
• Top House Republicans were prepared to let the Biden impeachment inquiry end with the report that came out last week.

Zoom in: "I tell you what I'm afraid of ... they're going to say, we don't have time to do it," Biggs said last week on Steve Bannon's "War Room" podcast.

• With Congress stuck in D.C. next month to hammer out a short-term funding deal, there's plenty of time for an enterprising Republican to force the issue.

Between the lines: Just last month, GOP leaders failed to stop Luna from forcing a vote on fining Attorney General Merrick Garland. The Garland vote failed on the House floor.

• Expect the same from an impeachment vote, Republicans overwhelmingly tell us.

The bottom line: 11 House Republicans are defending "toss-up" seats in the Cook Political Report rankings. Another eight have "lean Republican" seats.

• The "only thing we should be focused on is the issues that people talk about around their dinner table and keep them up at night. … That's not a Biden impeachment," one battleground House Republican told Axios.

 

Dems dare House GOP

Some House Democrats are effectively inviting a hardline Republican to go rogue and force a vote to impeach President Biden in the final weeks of the 2024 election, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

• "Call the vote," Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) told us, taunting Republicans to force a process their leaders don't want.
• If House Republicans succeed in impeaching Biden, Moskowitz added, Senate Democrats should cut into their October recess and hold a trial to "call their bluff."

Why it matters: Top House Dems are in rare agreement with Republicans that an impeachment vote would hurt GOP attempts to keep their majority.

• "The whole investigation has been a debacle for them, they have egg all over their face," Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, told us.
• Look for Democratic leadership to use such a vote — this close to the election — to paint Republicans as extreme, sources tell us.

Zoom in: House GOP leadership and swing-district lawmakers are furious about the possibility of any single House Republican forcing a vote on impeachment, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke reported yesterday in Sneak Peek.

• A House Oversight Committee report last week accused Biden of "impeachable conduct" related to his family's business dealings but fell short of accusing the president of specific criminal wrongdoing.
• Multiple lawmakers on the party's right flank called for an impeachment vote when the House returns in September.

The bottom line: Raskin argued the blowback wouldn't be confined to Republican incumbents, predicting GOP candidates for Congress also would be grilled on how they would vote on impeachment.

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Johnson's crumbling strategy

By Hans Nichols and Justin Green

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg, Aaron Schwartz/NurPhoto, Saul Loeb/AFP and Alex Wong via Getty Images

House Speaker Mike Johnson is on notice he might have to abort his government funding plan. At least five GOP lawmakers have indicated they are opposed to Johnson's six-month spending plan. "I've made it clear to [leadership] that I'll be a 'no' on the CR," said Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.). Why it matters: Johnson has the most at stake if he quickly folds ahead of the Oct. 1 government funding deadline, so he's girding for a tough fight. "No one should worry — I believe we can get this job done," Johnson told us shortly after arriving at the Capitol today. But going into tomorrow, Johnson is on course to lose on both GOP priorities for a funding stopgap. Democratic leaders are in no mood to help. 1) The SAVE Act: Johnson's proposal to attach a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote looks like it's in danger. We've asked the five House Democrats who voted for the SAVE Act earlier this year how they plan to vote this time. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made clear he views the SAVE Act as a "poison pill" that violates a past spending agreement with Republicans, a source told us. 2) How long to stopgap: Democrats are trying to stay united against Johnson's push to extend government stopgap funding into March 2025, when Republicans could control the Senate. The big picture: We won't have a shutdown if ... The SAVE Act fails in the House, making it easier for Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to only negotiate over timing. House GOP frontliners show Johnson their teeth: "We don't know what Plan B and Plan C, what step two, step three, are," Biden-district Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) told Punchbowl News (membership required). Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helps Schumer get Republican votes to pass a clean stopgap on the agreed timeline. Defense hawks win out: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), vying to succeed McConnell as GOP leader, told us leaving defense spending on "autopilot" for six months could be "problematic." We'll have a shutdown if ... The SAVE Act passes the House and GOP hardliners persuade Johnson he should fear them more than a shutdown. Former President Trump wades in with demands on the SAVE Act, forcing Senate GOP leaders to play ball. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is a vocal supporter. Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — also vying to succeed McConnell — have signed on but are unlikely to support a shutdown over it. Axios' Juliegrace Brufke, Andrew Solender and Stef Kight contributed to this story.

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GOP leaders won’t commit to Trump IVF mandate

On their first day back, candidates for the top two positions in Senate GOP leadership waffled over Trump's plan to require insurance companies to cover the cost of IVF.

• Thune: "I'm sure it comes from good intentions. ... I have to think about whether or not that's something that you would want to mandate on insurance companies."
• Cornyn: "We ought to have that discussion." When asked if he supported the idea, Cornyn said he supports an open debate and a vote.
• Scott told reporters he would take a look at the proposal, but then pointed to his separate IVF legislation to address high costs.
• John Barrasso: "We can talk about how funding works." He emphasized that "every Republican I know supports in vitro fertilization."

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Senate cash alarm

Senate Republican leaders are privately raising the alarm over Democratic fundraising, and they're bracing for another cash infusion from the Harris-Walz presidential campaign into Senate races.

Why it matters: Outgoing Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has built out a massive fundraising infrastructure that has helped fuel GOP Senate victories.

• But the party faces a Democratic cash advantage that could leave future leaders in a tight spot.

"WE WILL LOSE WINNABLE RACES DUE TO A LACK OF RESOURCES," read one slide presented today by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) to his fellow Republicans at a closed-door lunch.

• The slide notes $10 million the Harris campaign transferred to the Democratic campaign arm last week.
• Harris raised a near-record-setting $361 million in August. The bulk will go to her own election efforts, but Democrats likely have more money than they can spend on the presidential race.
• Daines' message was that Senate leaders would have to make hard decisions about where to allocate their resources if the imbalance isn't made up, according to a source familiar.

Driving the news: Today's lunch led to a slew of donations from senators, adding up to nearly $7 million, sources familiar with the total told Axios.

• More than half came from Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who committed a record-breaking $4 million single transfer.
• Thune's contribution comes as his race heats up with Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to be the next GOP Senate leader.

The bottom line: When asked about Harris' eye-popping fundraising, Thune told Axios, "When you get an infusion like that, particularly ... if they're hard dollars, which go a lot further ... it makes a difference."

• "We're paying attention to that, and I think it just means we've got to intensify our efforts."

 

Bernie gives Schumer huge win

By Stephen Neukam

Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Sen. Bernie Sanders, who's long been skeptical of changing the rules that require 60 votes for legislation to pass the Senate, is willing to carve out an exception for abortion rights, he told us. Why it matters: This is a huge win for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who now appears to have the votes to pass abortion rights legislation — if his party can hold the majority. "On voting rights, on reproductive rights, the American people are very clear they want to maintain an American democracy," Sanders said. "I think the majority should rule." In 2022, Schumer tried to construct a filibuster carve-out for voting rights, which the Vermont independent supported. The plan crumbled when Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) withheld their support. But Manchin and Sinema are retiring from the Senate, and Schumer said at the DNC last month that he likes his chances of getting the carve-out done with them out of the picture.   🔥 Fault lines House Speaker Mike Johnson's insistence on moving forward with the stopgap spending bill is giving at least one Democrat a chance to prove he's not a rubber stamp for his party. Why it matters: Johnson knows he doesn't have enough Republican votes to pass the bill. Now he also knows there's a Democrat who will vote for the bill — but not him — if Republicans keep the majority. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) plans to vote for the bill, undercutting Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' attempts to keep his caucus unified. Golden is the only one of the five House Democrats who voted earlier this year on legislation requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote who has publicly said he plans to vote for Johnson's spending measure. Meanwhile, former President Trump's Truth Social post urging congressional Republicans to take a harder line on "election security" language has spiked GOP fears about a government shutdown. "This will most likely force a suspension vote that the speaker will have less influence over. ... This is not a good time for distractions," Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.), a battleground-district lawmaker, said of Trump's comments. Axios' Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke contributed reporting.

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Speaker Johnson postpones vote on a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown

WASHINGTON (AP) — Speaker Mike Johnson postponed a vote Wednesday on a temporary spending bill that would keep federal agencies and programs funded for six months as opposition from both parties thwarted his first attempt at avoiding a partial government shutdown in three weeks.

https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-mike-johnson-house-voting-citizenship-b2b20d38dbb0fcf3390a97eb1cc29418?

 

Mike Johnson's hell-in-waiting

Mike Johnson is fighting for his job this week. Today's setback gives him a sense for how difficult — and lonely — it will be if he wins.

• Read the room: Johnson's rank-and-file aren't taking his Plan A seriously ... his top members are pointing fingers over who's to blame ... worst of all, Donald Trump reserves the right to blindside him.

Why it matters: Those dynamics will only increase if Trump wins back the presidency and Republicans maintain their House majority.

• Johnson knows he can't pass a funding bill with partisan policy positions.
• But he also knows he has to get caught trying.

Zoom in: The speaker is back in the same caretaker's hot seat that he occupied before Democrats saved his job over aid for Ukraine.

• Johnson told us that he and Trump are on the same page. It's hard to read Trump's post and agree.

Tensions are mounting among Johnson top deputies, with fingers pointed at House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), we have learned.

• GOP lawmakers privately say there's a pattern here: "This seems like a long line of tough bills that Emmer hasn't whipped," a top House GOP lawmaker told us.
• "Emmer is failing as whip with multiple bills collapsing on the House floor. The whip operation is non-existent at this point," a senior GOP lawmaker told us.

The other side: "It's bullshit to blame Tom," a top House Republican told us.

• Johnson never had the votes to pass the stopgap bill — and even if Emmer manages to twist the arms of public "no" votes, it's dead-on-arrival in the Senate.
• "Emmer and Guy [Reschenthaler] are the only folks who have whipped me … They make a pretty compelling argument for it," Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told us.

Reality check: Johnson's Plan A — attaching the SAVE Act to a six-month spending stopgap — has been a farce from the start.

• Now Johnson's own members are waiting on it to fail so he can turn to a Plan B that he insists doesn't exist.

🔮 House Republicans expect to see Plan B as a six-month stopgap, without the SAVE Act. They could also see a three-month stopgap, with the SAVE Act.

• When that fails, they expect to inevitably cave to the Senate on a deal that pushes negotiations into the lame duck.

— Hans Nichols, Juliegrace Brufke

 

Johnson's doubters

A growing number of House Republicans are second-guessing Johnson's Plan A. "A number of us tried to tell him early on that that plan was futile, that it likely wasn't going to work," Rep. Steve Womack, a former House Budget Committee chair, told us. "I don't think we're going to ... get something back from the Senate that extends beyond this year," said Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.). Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) called the attempt to appease conservatives a "silly game," adding, "We are going to screw things up and hurt our nominee." — Andrew Solender   🚨 GOP infighting Over in the Senate, GOP leader Mitch McConnell rejected an effort from conservatives to delay the timeline for picking his replacement during a closed-door lunch, we have learned. Why it matters: A delay of even a few weeks could leave more time for Trump to weigh in or for a last-minute, dark-horse candidate to rise. Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) are the current top contenders. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has also launched a long-shot bid. "We need adequate time to meet as a conference — probably on multiple occasions," Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who hosted the lunch, told us. McConnell dismissed Lee's suggestion. He was supported by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Shelly Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) according to three sources familiar with what was said at lunch. Look to Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — the current conference chair who's running unopposed for GOP whip — to be a key decision maker on when the election is ultimately held. — Stef Kight   Scoop: Schumer cornering GOP on IVF Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will force Senate Republicans to vote on a plan mirroring Trump's proposal to mandate insurance coverage of IVF treatments, we have learned. Why it matters: Senate GOP leader hopefuls wouldn't endorse the former president's proposal when we asked them just a few days ago. "I'm sure it comes from good intentions," Thune told us on Monday. "I have to think about whether or not that's something that you would want to mandate on insurance companies." The IVF bill will hit the Senate floor over the next two weeks, a source familiar with the plans told Axios. Senate Republicans are likely to block it. Back in June, Republicans blocked the same bill, which would establish a right to access IVF treatments and mandate that public and private insurance plans cover such treatments. Just two Senate Republicans — Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) — voted for it.  — Stephen Neukam

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❌ Hakeem's red line

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has a plain message for House Speaker Mike Johnson: Your backup plans aren't happening.

Why it matters: Republicans expect to see Johnson inch away from his opening bid next week on the spending stopgap measure — either by shortening the length from six to three months or dropping the SAVE Act.

• Neither works for Jeffries, who wants a clean three-month CR or bust.

Inside the room: In at least three closed-door huddles this week — with his Democratic leadership team, his whip team and his full caucus — Jeffries delivered the same denunciation of Johnson's proposals, according to sources in each meeting.

• He described the SAVE Act as a "poison pill" and warned of the consequences a six-month spending bill — which would keep funding steady at 2023 levels — would have on Veterans Affairs, the military and Social Security.
• He insisted there was an agreement as part of last year's debt ceiling deal not to attach extraneous legislation to spending bills — and that Johnson's proposal violates that deal.

— Andrew Solender

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Threats to election workers as November nears detailed at congressional hearing

WASHINGTON — Republicans on the House Administration Committee during a hearing this week argued that legislation to bar people from voting who are not citizens — something already illegal — is what’s needed to prepare for the November elections.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/09/13/threats-to-election-workers-as-november-nears-detailed-at-congressional-hearing/?

U.S. Senate Republicans reject Democrats’ bill on IVF protections

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Democrats’ attempts to bolster reproductive rights failed again Thursday when Republicans blocked a bill guaranteeing access to in vitro fertilization from moving forward.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/09/12/u-s-senate-republicans-reject-democrats-bill-on-ivf-protections/?

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Haitian-American congresswoman says community is receiving "death threats" over Trump's lies

Florida Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick warned that former President Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance’s lies about Haitian immigrants in an Ohio town could “absolutely” lead to anti-immigrant violence,

https://local.newsbreak.com/florida-state/3596198089613-haitian-american-congresswoman-says-community-is-receiving-death-threats-over-trumps-lies?

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🗳️ A few House Rs vow to accept winner

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

A half dozen House Republicans have so far signed onto a bipartisan letter vowing to respect the certified winner of the 2024 presidential election, according to a copy obtained by Axios' Andrew Solender. Why it matters: Their party's nominee, former President Trump, has refused to say if he will accept the results and continued to deny his loss to President Biden in the 2020 election. Zoom in: Signers of the one-page letter vow to "safeguard the fairness and integrity of America" by "acknowledging the election winner certified [on Jan. 6] ... as the legitimate President of the United States." They also promise to attend the inauguration on Jan. 20, serve as a "voice for calm and reconciliation" and condemn those who "endorse or engage in violence." Led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), the letter was signed by 25 other Democrats and Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.). ps:Good for them, but actions speak louder than words, so we'll see what they really do!!!!!

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🚔 New spending fight

Add Secret Service funding to the list of items Congress can't agree on before a potential government shutdown on Oct. 1.

Why it matters: President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer want to boost the Secret Service's budget after two assassination attempts on former President Trump in two months. But Republican leaders aren't convinced money is the problem.

• "I don't think it's a funding issue," House Speaker Mike Johnson said today on Fox News. "President Trump needs the most coverage of anyone. He's the most attacked. He's the most threatened."
• "I don't know that it's a money issue," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is running to be GOP leader, told reporters.
• "We need a really transparent, fulsome investigation to figure out exactly what are the shortcomings and what's being done so far," said Senate Minority Whip John Thune, also seeking the Republican top spot.

News: The Biden administration has asked Congress to let the Secret Service spend more cash faster during the next spending stopgap, according to people familiar with the matter.

• No one's coughing up the exact number.
• Homeland Security was the only appropriations bill to not clear the Senate Appropriations Committee this summer, in part because senators wanted more time to scrutinize the budget for Secret Service.

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

 

⚡️Senate GOP's Biden backfire

Senate Republicans have quietly reversed course on trying to rebuke or embarrass the Biden White House, concerned it could help Schumer stay in power.

Why it matters: House and Senate GOP leaders had been pitting Democrats against Biden with Congressional Review Act votes, which allows Congress to overturn federal government rules and regulations.

• Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) told us they were "not actually getting anything done" with the votes, but it created a situation in which Democrats "can send a message that they're pretending to back home."
• "These are awfully hard votes to explain" to voters, Thune told us last year after votes on ESG investing, crime, COVID-19 and clean-water regulations.

But more recently that approach has backfired, giving endangered Senate Democrats an opportunity to vote against Biden.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) got a major victory in March when the Senate voted to overturn a rule from the Department of Agriculture that would end a ban on beef imports from Paraguay.

• Tester and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) both voted to overturn a Biden administration rule on measuring and setting greenhouse gas emission standards. If those two hold their seats, Democrats have a decent chance at keeping the Senate majority.
• Lankford told us that one of his CRA resolutions, on White House policy on nursing homes, hasn't gotten a vote in part because it's an easy way for vulnerable Democrats to distance themselves from Biden.

The other side: Republicans are planning to eat up floor time and provide new attack ad fodder this week by forcing votes requiring unanimous consent on everything from IVF to the border to fracking, we have learned.

• Republican want to draw attention to Vice President Kamala Harris' policy flip-flops, including on fracking bans, Medicare for All and decriminalizing border crossings.

— Stephen Neukam, Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

 

Schumer's impatience

With two weeks until a potential shutdown, Schumer is losing patience with Johnson, signaling the Senate is prepared to move first.

Why it matters: Schumer knows Johnson is cornered by his own party. But Schumer has members — especially Tester and Brown — who can't afford to waste valuable time in D.C.

• Schumer would need the better chunk of a week to get a funding bill through the Senate. Getting buy-in from 10 Senate Republicans will speed it up, but only by so much.

If Johnson manages to get a partisan bill through the House, the Senate will strip it down to a three-month funding extension with no policy riders and send it straight back.

• That bill could theoretically hit the House just before the funding deadline, exerting maximum pressure on Johnson to put the bill on the floor and pass it with Democratic support.
• Or Schumer could start the process on his own government funding bill next week with buy-in from Senate Republicans. That would place the bill at Johnson's feet, again, just before a looming government shutdown.

— Stephen Neukam and Stef Kight

 

🔥 Johnson's December nightmare

To better understand Mike Johnson this week, just look at what awaits him at the end of this year.

Why it matters: The most likely conclusion to this government spending standoff is an encore that threatens Johnson's chances of being re-elected as House speaker.

• He knows he's seven votes short but will still push ahead tomorrow with a vote on his Plan A. That's the six-month spending stopgap plus the SAVE Act, the legislation requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.

⚡️ Once Plan A fails, his deputies have no clue what happens next. Johnson says there's no Plan B, but everyone in town assumes the end result is a three-month stopgap, no strings attached.

• One senior GOP lawmaker told us there's been "ruffling of feathers" over who's responsible for rounding up the votes. They expect more leadership infighting to flare up as they navigate subsequent funding fights.

⏩ Now fast-forward to November: If Republicans keep the majority, Johnson will be negotiating a budget while actively running for speaker.

• The current best-case scenario for Republicans is keeping a narrow House majority after the Nov. 5 election. In that universe, we'd expect Johnson to survive a speaker nomination vote in November.
• But then he'd have to navigate parallel whip counts — the votes he secures for a budget in December, and how getting those votes affects his support in the House speaker election in January.
• "Speaker Johnson is focused exclusively on responsibly funding the government, protecting American elections, and defending and growing the House Republican majority," Johnson spokesperson Taylor Haulsee told us.

The intrigue: One way to view Johnson's actions is that he can have some House conservative defections, but he can't have a Mar-a-Lago revolt.

• Former President Trump has called to shut down the government if the SAVE Act doesn't get a vote, so Johnson may be inclined to take a vote he expects to lose.
• Mitch McConnell isn't being subtle in the meantime: A pre-election shutdown would be "beyond stupid" and the GOP would be blamed, the Senate minority leader told reporters today.

— Juliegrace Brufke and Hans Nichols

 

📣 Scoop: Gillibrand's leadership plot

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is making moves to be the next leader of the Senate Democratic campaign arm following the November elections, we have learned.

• Senate Democrats are steep underdogs to protect their majority this year. If they can't, it would be the next DSCC chair's job to lead the charge in winning it back for Chuck Schumer.

Why it matters: Unlike this year, Democrats have real pickup chances in 2026. Prime targets include Republican seats in North Carolina and Maine.

• Gillibrand is known as a strong fundraiser with relationships in both New York and California.
• She will campaign for Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in the coming weeks, a source familiar with her plans told us.

The big picture: Current DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) took on the rare task of running the DSCC for two election cycles and delivered impressive results in 2022.

• But he will be up for re-election in 2026, and he said today he won't seek the job again.

A spokesman for Gillibrand told Axios she is focused on her "re-election campaign and on helping Leader Schumer and Chairman Peters hold the Senate."

— Stephen Neukam

 

Trump traps Senate GOP

Trump's surprise post on SALT deductions has forced Senate Republicans into a pickle: contradict their party's leader or their old positions.

• "We'll take a look at all the suggestions," Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who is running for leader, told reporters, noting it "got litigated extensively in 2017."

Why it matters: For Republican leaders, it's a taste of what's to come if Trump wins back the White House.

• They'll have to harmonize their own positions — in real time — with a president who is constantly changing his.

Trump posted this afternoon that he would "get SALT back."

• That's a strong indication he wants to let those in high-tax states deduct more than $10,000 from their federal taxes — a limit he championed in his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Zoom in: "I don't think we ought to be subsidizing state taxes," Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told us repeatedly, adding Republicans need to win the House, Senate and White House first before there's a real discussion on what to do about SALT.

• "I personally, at this point in time, believe we should extend the TCJA SALT provisions," said Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee. "But like I said, everything's up for negotiations."

The other side: The new Trump idea does have support from Schumer, who said he has "always been for eliminating the cap on SALT."

• Schumer called the Trump tax bill "a nasty piece of legislation," which was "aimed at the blue states."

The bottom line: Removing the $10,000 SALT caps would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Government.

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

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Secret Plan B

Screenshot: C-SPAN Shortly before tonight's failed vote on the spending stopgap, House Speaker Mike Johnson told senior Republicans in a private meeting that ... surprise ... he had a Plan B — but wouldn't tell them what it was. After 14 Republicans voted against his Plan A, Johnson said he'll go back to the playbook. Why it matters: Tonight was a baffling setback for the speaker. He said he wanted to put people on the record on the SAVE Act. Then he lost ground. 216 Republicans voted for the SAVE Act, requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, in July. Just 199 voted for it today as part of the spending stopgap. Five Democrats voted for SAVE in July. Three were still on board tonight. 📉 "I'm disappointed," Johnson said after the vote. "I know this was the right thing to do and I think the American people are going to let a lot of the folks that voted 'no' tonight hear their concerns about it." The government will shut down on Oct. 1 unless there's a new budget or spending stopgap. Johnson has repeatedly said the government won't shut down, but declined to share his plan to avoid one. What we're hearing: One GOP lawmaker accused Johnson tonight of being "cryptic" and "insular" on government funding plans, arguing "you talk to members and he's not where the conference is." 👀 Deja vu: Just like last week, former President Trump twisted the screws at the last minute. "If Republicans don't get the SAVE Act, and every ounce of it, they should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape, or form," he posted earlier today. The bottom line: After Johnson's 10 days of futility, look for the Senate's patience to run out fast. "We now have only a few days left for House Republicans to come to their senses, come to the table, and come together with Democrats to craft a bipartisan agreement," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said after the vote. "I think we've got to give them a little bit of time to hopefully originate it over there and send something here," Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) told us earlier today. — Juliegrace Brufke and Stef Kight

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💰 Secret Service cash

One space with bipartisan optimism after tonight's fiasco is Secret Service cash.

• Why it matters: Both party leaders in the Senate are open to including more money for the agency in light of the demands for more protection to be granted to Trump.

Republicans are more comfortable with what's called an "anomaly" in the stop-gap measure.

• This would allow the agency to access up to 100% of its current $1.3 billion protection budget over the spending stopgap period — likely a couple of months, according to a source close to the negotiations.
• That's hundreds of millions of dollars more than the agency would be able to use otherwise and would get them well through the election.

Some Democrats want to give the agency extra cash through a separate supplemental package rather than messing with the spending stopgap.

• But that opens them up to other agencies asking for their own plus-ups.

The bottom line: Senate Democrats hope "Plan B" consists of a bipartisan path forward, with all four congressional leaders hashing out a plan to get a three-month stopgap measure through both chambers by the end of next week.

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— Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam

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Nasty cold streak

Data: Pew Research Center; Chart: Axios Visuals Bill Clinton was president the last time the four corners of congressional leadership managed to do one of their most important jobs on time — fully fund every federal appropriations bill by the Oct. 1 deadline. ❄️ But it gets worse: Congress is on track to pass zero of the 12 appropriations bills on time for the sixth year in a row. The House has passed five of its funding bills for FY2025, Congressional Research Service data shows. That amounts to 70% of federal funding for the year, a spokesperson for the speaker noted. Senate committees have passed their versions of every appropriations bill except for Homeland Security. None have received a vote on the floor. — Stef Kight

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🏳 Johnson's coming surrender

The end to the shutdown drama is in sight. The end to House Speaker Mike Johnson's political headaches is not.

• Johnson spoke with Republican appropriators about drafting a "clean" three-month funding bill, we learned this afternoon.

Why it matters: This caps 10 excruciating days for Johnson. At each step, he's insisted the inevitable wasn't inevitable. No one bought it.

• Johnson hasn't publicly endorsed the three-month plan, which the White House and Senate Democrats always favored.
• But he's inching toward the outcome many Senate Republicans privately said was coming: A spending bill through November that didn't include a GOP voting proposal to require proof of citizenship to vote. Johnson's six-month stopgap plus the voting legislation failed yesterday.

Zoom in: We told you last night Johnson has a Plan B — but he wouldn't share it. That's still the case.

• Into the void stepped Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who told reporters this afternoon he's starting to work on a bill that funds the government through Dec. 13 or Dec. 20.
• "There's a lot of conversations going on right now," Johnson told reporters this evening. "We'll make a play call. We got time."
• The federal government will shut down on Oct. 1 unless a spending stopgap or new budget is approved.

What we're hearing: Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said there'll be a "lot of disappointment" if Johnson goes bipartisan.

• Asked if Johnson would face a revolt if he moved ahead with a clean three-month bill, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) responded: "I sure hope so."

🚨 Johnson's rank-and-file and deputies see warning signs coming.

• House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has broadened his help on fundraising and campaigning beyond his conservative core. Republicans see this as evidence he's ready for a leadership challenge.
• Jordan failed to become speaker last year — and still has enough GOP detractors to block a new bid, sources tell us.
• But becoming party leader only takes a majority vote.

What's next: Appropriators in the House and Senate — the so-called four corners — are expected to hash out the details over the weekend, with votes expected early next week.

• Meanwhile, the White House has started to engage. Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, spoke this afternoon with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the top Republican appropriator.

— Hans Nichols, Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender

 

Johnson's audience of one

Johnson is scheduled to have another audience tonight with the one Republican who seems most intent on a shutdown: former President Trump.

• Why it matters: Johnson won't need Trump's blessing to move past the SAVE Act. But a furious response would be devastating.

Between the lines: This is a bad night to meet with Trump, who's dealing with chaos after a CNN report on close ally and North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.

• Robinson referred to himself as a "black NAZI!" on message boards. He also expressed support for reinstating slavery and said he enjoyed watching transgender pornography, CNN reports.
• Before the story's publication, Robinson posted a video on social media denying the allegations.

— Hans Nichols and Juliegrace Brufke