Congress: The Senate & The House

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🎁 Johnson's Christmas jam

 

After two weeks of self-inflicted agony, Speaker Mike Johnson has caved on a funding stopgap. Next comes the actual hard part, just in time for Christmas.

• The House will vote this week on a 3-month spending stopgap bill that's "very narrow" and "bare-bones," the speaker announced today.
• The next big deadline will be Dec. 20.

Why it matters: Johnson says this week's Plan B will "prevent the Senate from jamming us" with new spending. But the same problems will be here in December, setting up House Republicans for a date at the jam factory.

Problem 1: A core group of House Republicans will never vote for a spending stopgap bill.

• 13 of them voted against a stopgap last week, plus House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers.
• If the Senate can get its act together and pass its appropriations bills, the House is primed to get ran over on big-time priorities. 

Problem 2: Johnson needs too many Democratic votes to have leverage.

• He'll need Democrats to pass a stopgap this week.
• When that dynamic rears up in December over a full budget, he'll again need them. But he'll also be about two weeks away from a speaker election.

Problem 3: The GOP's shutdown appetite will grow after November. 

• Johnson has pushed Republicans — including former President Trump — away from a tough spending fight by citing the fear of being blamed for a pre-election shutdown.
• Come December, that line of logic is gone.

 

👀 Inside the bill

Johnson's Plan B includes another $230 million in Secret Service funding, which would be given under the condition the agency cooperates with the congressional task force. It also provides around $20 billion to top off FEMA's disaster relief fund. Look for Republicans to try to pass this bill on Wednesday via regular order.  When that quickly fails (see problem #1 above), they'll need Democrats to help it reach the 2/3 majority to pass under suspension. Go deeper. — Stef Kight and Juliegrace Brufke

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Misleading claim ties Trump to Haitian migration in Ohio | Fact check

The claim: Post implies Donald Trump's policies led to influx of Haitian immigrants to Springfield, Ohio

Our rating: Missing context

The implied claim is wrong. President Donald Trump unsuccessfully tried to end a program that allows Haitian nationals to remain and work in the U.S. legally less than a year into his presidency. The growing Haitian immigrant population in Springfield was a result of efforts by local leaders to attract new workers.

Trump attempted to deport Haitian immigrants

Springfield was thrust into the national spotlight in the Sept. 10 presidential debate when Trump repeated a false claim that Haitian immigrants in the city were eating other people’s pets. Trump insisted the claim was true, amplifying the notion that the immigrants were harming the community. City leaders say the immigrants are welcome and integral parts of the community, and USA TODAYand other outlets have debunked the claim of pet eating.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/09/20/haitian-immigrants-trump-fact-check/75304414007/?

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Congressional leaders agree on spending deal to avert a federal shutdown Congressional leaders announced an agreement Sunday on a short-term spending bill that will fund federal agencies for about three months, averting a possible partial government shutdown when the new budget year begins Oct. 1 and pushing final decisions until after the November election. Read more.

Why this matters: Lawmakers have struggled to get to this point as the current budget year winds to a close at month’s end. At the urging of the most conservative members of his conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., had linked temporary funding with a mandate that would have compelled states to require proof of citizenship when people register to vote. But Johnson abandoned that approach to reach an agreement, even as Trump insisted there should not be a stop-gap measure without the voting requirement.    In a letter to Republican colleagues, Johnson said the budget measure would be “very narrow, bare-bones” and include “only the extensions that are absolutely necessary.” The final result — government funding effectively on autopilot — was what many had predicted. With the election just weeks away, few lawmakers in either party had any appetite for the brinkmanship that often leads to a shutdown.   Temporary spending bills generally fund agencies at current levels, but an additional $231 million was included to bolster the Secret Service after the two assassination attempts against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and additional money was added to aid with the presidential transition.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Republicans in swing states say they see scant signs of groups door-knocking for Trump   Party lines blur in election campaign’s last stretch   Harris raises $27 million in New York fundraiser, promises economic speech this week

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Government shutdown

 

House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a spending bill Sunday that will avert a government shutdown if it is passed by both the House and Senate before funding runs out on September 30. Still, even with a possible deal to avert a lapse in funding, the standard procedure to bring nonessential government functions to a halt will soon get underway for all federal government departments and agencies, an administration official told CNN. Should lawmakers fail to pass a funding bill, millions of federal workers and military personnel would be affected. Prior shutdowns have also forced the temporary closure of some national park and monument facilities, threatened nutrition assistance to low-income Americans and caused flight delays.

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🚨 Mitch's last knockouts

 

Senate Republicans are privately telling their biggest donors the Montana Senate race is nearly in the bag and Ohio is heading their way, we have learned.

Why it matters: GOP leader Mitch McConnell has made defeating Democrats in red states the calling card of his reign. Montana and Ohio are two of his last big goals.

• But to expand a 2025 majority past 52 seats, Republicans will need more money — and a good showing from former President Trump. The swing states in the presidential race, except for Georgia and North Carolina, also have competitive Senate contests. 

🚨 NEWS: Jason Thielman, the executive director of the NRSC, broke down the view from the GOP's high command this weekend at an exclusive donor retreat in Sea Island, Georgia.

• Former President Trump is down by one point in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but up by one in Arizona, Thielman explained, according to people familiar with the matter.
• In Ohio, the polling has Trump winning by nine percentage points, with GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno currently down by two. Moreno is sitting on a big cash advantage over Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) for the remaining six weeks.
• They expect public polling in October to give Moreno a lead. And it was noted Moreno is looking better than Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) did at this stage of the race in 2022.

Screenshot of NRCC slide deck, obtained from a source familiar.

The intrigue: Thielman sounded the alarm on major funding gaps for the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

• All of these states are in play, he said, but it will be difficult for Republicans to emerge victorious without fresh cash.
• "Senate Democrats are strongly positioned to defend our majority because the most important factors in every single Senate race are in Democrats' favor: we have the better candidates, the more effective message and the stronger campaigns," DSCC communications director David Bergstein told us.

— Hans Nichols, Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam

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⚡️Mike needs rescue

 

Speaker Mike Johnson is in luck: Democrats are poised to bail him out again to pass the spending stopgap. 

• The GOP has abandoned its initial plan and will pursue a suspension vote on Wednesday that needs tons of Democratic votes to reach a two-thirds majority.

When that happens: House Democratic leadership told its members the GOP stopgap has no dealbreakers for their side, we scooped this morning.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is still gathering feedback from his members, a Democratic leadership aide told us. Tomorrow's caucus meeting will be a critical gauge of support.

Another headache for Johnson: Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.) reportedly hired a woman he was having an affair with to work for his congressional office, the N.Y. Times reports. 

• D'Esposito's race against Democrat Laura Gillen is rated a "toss-up" by Cook Political Report.

— Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender

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🔥 Jeffries' last bailout

The really uncomfortable question for Speaker Mike Johnson tomorrow isn't whether he can pass the stopgap. It's how many votes he'll need to borrow from Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat who wants his job.

Why it matters: It used to be unthinkable for a GOP speaker to call a vote in which they couldn't win a majority of the majority. But Johnson has failed that test twice this year.

• This time around, GOP leaders are privately optimistic they can meet the bar of 111 of their 220 members voting to avoid a government shutdown.
• They'll need closer to 290 total votes to pass the stopgap with a two-thirds majority, since they're moving it under suspension of the rules.

Johnson is working the edges: He promised his members he won't cave to an omnibus spending deal in December. He even ruled out the "minibus" approach, with multiple bills packaged together.

• Count us as skeptical, but he's telling Republicans what they want to hear.
• Don't look for Senate Democrats to rush to pass individual spending bills in the post-election lame duck session, when they'd rather be confirming judges.

🚨NEWS: House Democratic leaders expect an overwhelming majority of their members to vote "yes" tomorrow.

• "I think that we're going to support it," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The bottom line: For Jeffries, the vote is an all-too-familiar position.

• The New York Democrat has repeatedly found himself dictating the fate of Republican legislation over the last two years.
• "Congress hasn't passed much, but what has passed has had to have substantial Democratic support," said Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), who added of a potential Speaker Jeffries: "He's ready."

— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

 

🛩 Schumer's jet fuel

Here's the backstory on why Schumer was just able to announce a fast-track vote tomorrow on the funding bill: Republican senators emerged from their weekly lunch today ready to move it along.

• Schumer announced a unanimous consent agreement tonight, which sets up a vote after two hours of debate tomorrow. No amendments will be considered.

Why it matters: Lawmakers were eager to get home — especially those facing tight re-election races or whose states may be hit by the hurricane that's approaching the Southeast.

Zoom in: NRSC chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) led the charge against pushing for politically hot amendments that would delay the process, according to multiple sources familiar with what happened at lunch.

• Even some of the usuals who tend to embrace stalling tactics — such as Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) — didn't object.
• One major concern raised: Giving vulnerable Democrats like Sens. Tester, Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) free votes that could win them political points on amendments that won't pass anyway.

— Stef Kight

🥊 Fault lines: McConnell hits Trump

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell gave a rare response to a Trump question today, saying, "I'm not a fan of tariffs" and "I'm more of a free trade kind of Republican."

• "They raise the prices for American consumers," McConnell told reporters when asked about Trump's expansive tariffs proposal.

Why it matters: We've told you for months that Trump's tariff plans could meet stiff opposition in the Senate.

• McConnell's just the tip of that spear.

— Stef Kight

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Republicans Are Finally Tired of Shutting Down the Government

This week, Speaker Mike Johnson surrendered a spending battle that Republicans had hardly even fought. The House will vote on legislation today to avert a government shutdown without demanding any significant concessions from Democrats. In a letter to Republican lawmakers on Sunday, Johnson acknowledged that the bill “is not the solution any of us prefer.” But, he wrote, “as history has taught and current polling affirms, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/johnson-republican-government-shutdown-deal/680013/?

🚨Jeffries’ speaker code

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has promised Speaker Mike Johnson that their relationship will be governed by two rules: No lies and no smack talk.

Why it matters: It's an old-school pledge that has helped the new leaders build trust in a Congress in which it's in short supply, especially among Johnson's own leadership team.

• It's also the kind of code that demands reciprocity, if the tables are turned in the new Congress and it's Jeffries attempting to lead with a narrow majority.

🎤 Jeffries has spoken glowingly about his working relationship with Johnson at fundraisers around Washington, multiple sources who attended the events told us.

• That rapport is better than the one Jeffries had with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the sources said, helping along bipartisan deals when Congress has needed them most.

The big picture: The House voted today to avert a government shutdown at the end of the month, with Jeffries delivering an overwhelming Democratic vote to get the bill through the chamber.

• The House leaders also combined on a bipartisan deal in March to avoid a partial government shutdown.
• Jeffries coming to the rescue on government funding has been helped along by the "straightforward" relationship between he and Johnson, one of the sources told us.
• Jeffries would make the commitment to not lie or disparage any leader of his opposing conference, a source familiar with his thinking told us.

Between the lines: While Jeffries is known for his scorching takedowns of Republicans behind the lectern and on the House floor, his allies say one of his unsung skills is knowing when to put down his bayonet and cut a deal.

• "He's done well because he's kind of kept his eye on the ball and he was not obstructionist, he has always been willing to work with them," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a member of Jeffries' leadership team.

— Stephen Neukam, Andrew Solender and Hans Nichols

Johnson's good vote

Today's 341-82 spending stopgap vote was undeniably a win for Johnson.

• We told you yesterday his team was hoping to get a majority of the GOP majority. They cleared that bar by more than 20 votes.

Zoom out: Not a single Democrat voted "no" and 82 Republicans voted against Johnson.

• But his 132 Republican "yes" votes give Johnson a lot more breathing room than expected for the long recess.

In the Senate, the stopgap passed by a comfortable 78-18 margin.

Mike's cold shoulders

Before leaving town, Johnson fired a shot across the bow at Ukraine. But his target audience lives at Mar-a-Lago.

• Earlier today, Johnson ignored a late push by former President Trump to attach the SAVE Act to the spending stopgap, sources told us. It would have triggered a government shutdown.
• "I've been talking with President Trump all day long and he understands exactly what's going on here," Johnson told us.

🥶 Johnson then demanded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately fire his ambassador to the U.S. for "election interference" over Zelensky's tour of a munitions factory in Pennsylvania.

• Zelensky will be on the Hill tomorrow for meetings with elected leaders. Johnson declined, citing scheduling conflicts.
• In a letter to Zelensky, Johnson alleged the tour was "clearly a partisan campaign event designed to help Democrats" and it has "caused Republicans to lose trust in Ambassador [Oksana] Markarova's ability to fairly and effectively serve as a diplomat in this country."
• Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called Johnson's singling out of Markarova "highly unusual," telling us, "For all the years I have been here, I have welcomed heads of state who have been brought ... by their ambassador."

Johnson's Republicans are investigating the trip, in which Zelensky was flown in a U.S. Air Force jet — a routine procedure for foreign officials traveling within the U.S.

— Hans Nichols, Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender

 

Government shutdown

 

Congress on Wednesday approved a spending plan to avert a government shutdown. The agreement will fund the government until December 20 under a narrow continuing resolution advanced by Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. The measure faced opposition from some members of his own conference in the Republican-controlled body, forcing Johnson to seek significant Democratic support. It will next be sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Biden applauded Congress for "avoiding a costly government shutdown," saying in a statement that it gives lawmakers "more time to pass full-year funding bills by the end of this year."

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US lawmakers’ concerns about mail ballots are fueled by other issues with mail service

Lawmakers said during a contentious congressional hearing Thursday they are uneasy about the U.S. Postal Service’s readiness for a crush of mail ballots for the November election because some of them feel burned by other Postal Service actions.

https://apnews.com/article/mail-ballots-voting-postal-service-dejoy-d36c6dff5ee1d4230c43390f17e276a9?

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Mitch's missing guests

Three important names were missing from today's Senate huddle with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

• GOP leader hopefuls Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) weren't there. Neither was Sen. John Barrasso, the presumptive next Senate GOP No. 2.

Why it matters: This was likely the last time Mitch McConnell will be Senate GOP leader for a Zelensky huddle on Capitol Hill.

• He and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are both strong supporters of Ukraine. So is Thune, McConnell's current deputy, whose office said he had a scheduling conflict.
• Barrasso and Scott — who was flying to Florida ahead of the incoming hurricane — both voted against the latest Ukraine aid package.
• NEWS: Former President Trump and Zelensky will meet tomorrow morning in New York City. Earlier today, Trump posted a message on Truth Social from the deputy Ukrainian ambassador.

Inside the room: Today's meeting focused on Ukraine's "victory plan" over Russia, sources tell us. Senators from both sides raised hard questions about that plan's viability.

• Zelensky told the group Ukraine might not need extra funding from Congress if the U.S. lifts restrictions on its ability to use long-range weapons to strike inside Russia.
• Both parties have been wary of allowing Zelensky to strike deep into Russia, worried it would shift the U.S. from a cold war to a hot war.
• Still, Democrats and Republicans emerged from the meeting urging President Biden to grant Zelensky's request to strike targets within Russia.

👀 One part of the victory plan in which the U.S. can really help move the needle is sanctions enforcement, Zelensky told lawmakers.

The intrigue: Zelensky's recent visit to a plant in Pennsylvania that manufactures ammunition for Ukraine wasn't discussed in the Senate huddle.

• Republicans have called it a political stunt, and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) demanded Zelensky fire one of his top diplomats.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally, said he privately raised his concerns that the visit was a "mistake" but added, "hopefully that's behind us."

— Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam

🥊 Schumer's counterpunch

We told you this week that Schumer's DSCC is targeting Texas and Florida. Now the cash is on its way.

• The exact size of the ad buy isn't out there. We just know it's "multimillion," as DSCC Chair Gary Peters said at the National Press Club this morning.

Why it matters: Democrats are hoping to offset races in Montana — where hope is fading — and Ohio, where Republicans are bullish.

• The spending isn't coming at Sen. Jon Tester's (D-Mont.) expense. "Tester will have everything that he needs to win," Peters said, per Punchbowl News.

📲 If you think the TV ads are bad: "When you talk to folks in Montana, they're saying, 'We have a pollster call us every day,'" Peters said.

— Stephen Neukam

🔍 What Hakeem's watching

Democratic House leaders have selected a trio of candidates to flood with fresh cash in an effort to give Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) more pathways to the majority.

Why it matters: The contests aren't quite sleeper races, but their inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program is an indication they might be getting tighter.

• The program is a way for the Democratic high command to signal they are going to spend more aggressively in certain districts — and they want donors to make similar investments.

Driving the news: This morning, the DCCC announced the inclusion of Whitney Fox in Florida, April McClain Delaney in Maryland and John Avlon in New York, bringing the number of participants to 33.

• Fox and Avlon are challengers, facing off against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), respectively. Both of those races are rated "likely Republican" by Cook Political Report.
• Delaney is running in an open seat to replace Rep. David Trone (D-Md.), in a district Cook rates as "likely Democratic."

What they are saying: "It's our way of making sure we're providing support for these campaigns, helping them get up and running," Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) the chair of the DCCC, told Axios.

• "It's really important that we understand what's happening on the ground, what voters are thinking, and understand the impact that our messaging is having on voters," she said, "so we can do the right investments to help make sure people win in November."

— Hans Nichols

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Trump's tax opening

It didn't get the headlines, but look a level deeper at what Speaker Mike Johnson's top tax writer Jason Smith said today about the SALT cap.

• Why it matters: Former President Trump has called to eliminate the SALT cap, the $10,000 annual limit on state and local tax deductions that he signed into law in 2017.

Level 1: "There will be a cap on SALT," Smith, the Ways and Means chair, told CNBC today.

• "It's not going to be unlimited. ... There's no way in a Republican House of Representatives you can pass an unlimited SALT deduction," Smith added.
• On its face, that's a major affront to Trump, who isn't used to Republicans saying his ideas are a nonstarter.

But then came Smith's follow-up, that he'd be open to negotiating the cap to a higher level in next year's tax talks.

• Level 2: "I would say definitely a higher cap, there's going to have to be some wiggle room," Smith said.

Smith floated ideas for what wiggle room looks like.

• 1) Ending the marriage penalty, which keeps the cap at $10,000 whether a filer is single or married.
• 2) Raising the cap to reflect inflation since 2017.

The bottom line: Trump may have an easier time getting the House to sing his tune than the Senate.

• "I personally, at this point in time, believe we should extend the [Trump tax cap] SALT provisions" of 2017, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee, told us this month.
• "But like I said, everything's up for negotiations."

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Scott's pressure campaign

It's a long-shot, but Senate GOP leader candidate Rick Scott is out in front on the push for a special session for disaster relief after Hurricane Helene.

• Scott wants the Senate to "immediately reconvene" to vote on an aid package. He's up for re-election this year in Florida, which took a hard hit from the storm.

Count us as doubtful that Congress' leaders will call a special session: They just left town last week after passing a stopgap federal funding bill that included three months worth of funding for FEMA's Disaster Aid Fund at current spending levels.

• Many Republicans view that as sufficient. "The President has extraordinary ability to move resources now," one GOP lawmaker told us.
• But Democrats say additional funding needed to be tucked into the bill ahead of hurricane season: "Mike Johnson should have included it in the CR. We should return to D.C.," Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) told Axios.

— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

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🤝 NRCC scoop

Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) is actively exploring a bid to run Mike Johnson's House GOP campaign arm next cycle, two lawmakers told us today.

Why it matters: The role is currently held by Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who hasn't indicated whether he will seek another term.

• "Rudy is currently focused on helping Richard and the NRCC protect our majority. That's the No. 1 priority. If there is an opening in the future, it's something Rudy is very much interested in exploring," a source familiar with Yakym's thinking told us.
• Yakym was first elected to his seat in 2022.

The bottom line: "I am 100% focused on my job as NRCC chairman and serving the people of NC-09," Hudson told us. "I haven't spent one second thinking about anything else."

— Juliegrace Brufke

✈️ Johnson's marathon

Johnson plans to barnstorm 20 states this month as the House GOP clings to its tiny majority.

• "The last 11 months we've been on the road. I've done campaign events so far in 211 cities across 39 states," he said today at the New York Stock Exchange.
• He's set to do fundraising events in New York today and tomorrow.

The bottom line: Johnson said "traveling nonstop — that's the job of the modern speaker."

— Juliegrace Brufke

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🚨Trump fear factor

A new Trump fear is creeping into the Senate GOP:

• Senators are privately (and publicly) saying they hope Donald Trump stays out of the internal election to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader.

Why it matters: None of them know — or it's a damn good secret — whether the former president will make an endorsement. But senators worry a Trump intervention could turn the secret-ballot leader election into a public feud.

• "I hope not," said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), when asked if he thinks Trump will weigh in. "I think outside influence could be problematic."
• "I said, 'Sir, if I was you, I would stay out of the race, because there's no win for you in this,'" Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who's talked with Trump about the race, told us.

It's the first truly competitive GOP Senate leader race since McConnell won the job in 2007. But Trump's endorsement carries enormous weight with a growing segment of the GOP conference.

• "He's offered some views on it to me," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told us. "It's safe to say he has a pretty consistent prediction of who he thinks it'll be."
• Hawley doesn't know if Trump will weigh in, he said.

The top two candidates — Sens. John Thune and John Cornyn — each have had rocky relationships with Trump.

• After Jan. 6, Thune denounced Trump and initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) for president. Cornyn has said the GOP needed to move on from Trump.
• McConnell has had a tumultuous relationship with the former president.

There's a lot still up in the air. Sources often describe Thune as the likely favorite, though they say not to discount how much Cornyn's long history of hard-dollar fundraising for Senate campaigns means to people.

• Cornyn told us it's been a few weeks since he spoke with Trump about the leadership race. But he visited Mar-a-Lago a couple months ago "to talk about planning for the future," adding they've been "visiting with some of the transition folks."
• Mullin said Trump "likes" Thune despite their rocky past. The Oklahoma Republican has backed Thune.
• Senate sources do not talk about Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) as a serious contender compared to Thune or Cornyn.

Some suspect there could be a late entry: NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is the most-floated name.

The bottom line: There's not a lot of incentive for senators benefiting from both Thune and Cornyn's aggressive fundraising efforts to commit too early.

• "If one of them felt that they really had a majority, I think they would not be shy about saying that, but I don't think anybody does," Hawley said.

— Stef Kight

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🤑 Scoop: DSCC tryout

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) raised $180,000 to split among three frontline New York Democrats over the weekend, we have learned.

Why it matters: Gillibrand wants to lead the Senate Democratic fundraising arm for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer next year, as we broke to you last month.

• Gillibrand has raised more than $1 million this cycle for federal candidates, a source familiar with the operation told us.

The big picture: The map of House members from New York is a mini-version of what Gillibrand would face if she becomes the next DSCC chair.

• House Democrats must flip several Republican-held seats in the state if House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has any hope of becoming speaker next year.
• Gillibrand fundraised over the weekend for challengers in two of those districts — Democrats Mondaire Jones and Josh Riley. She also raised cash for Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.), who is in a seat that leans Democratic, according to Cook Political Report ratings.

What to watch: Gillibrand will head to Ohio late next week to fundraise and campaign for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

— Stephen Neukam

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🎯 Closing messages

Photo: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

House Democrats' campaign arm is leaning hard into Project 2025 in the final stages of the election — launching billboards in more than two dozen districts blasting the conservative blueprint, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. Senate's hungry freshmen At least three potential candidates are exploring their shot at leading the Senate GOP campaign arm for Mitch McConnell's heir in 2026, we have learned. Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Missouri) is emerging as the most serious possibility to chair the NRSC, five sources familiar with Capitol Hill and downtown conversations tell us. Sens. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) are also scoping it out, according to multiple sources. Why it matters: Protecting the Senate GOP's likely majority in 2026 is a high-risk and high-reward proposition. If Trump wins next month, the NRSC will be playing defense in Maine and North Carolina. The job will be much harder than this cycle, when the GOP's most vulnerable incumbents were in red states such as Texas and Florida. If Kamala Harris wins, Republicans will look to knock off incumbents in Georgia and Michigan. In either scenario, it's an opportunity for a senator to jumpstart a potential leadership career — and meet the party's most important donors along the way. What we're hearing: Schmitt and his allies have had positive reactions to early conversations about the role, but he has not made a final decision, according to a source close to Schmitt. NOTUS first reported on Schmitt considering the role. Britt has been more visibly boosting Republican campaigns lately. She held a big dollar fundraiser for NRSC late last month, hosted Trump and NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) at the Alabama-Georgia game and spun for JD Vance at the VP debate. "She isn't currently running for NRSC Chair, but she's always open to how she can best serve the conference," a source close to Britt told us. Zoom out: Both Schmitt and Britt are fellow Senate freshmen, a tight-knit and ambitious group that also includes Vance. Schmitt is a likely option for attorney general if Trump wins in November. Hagerty, elected in 2020, is a top contender for a potential Trump cabinet position — even secretary of state, sources have told us. It would be unusual for a NRSC chair to face their own re-election campaign while leading the party's broader election fight. The bottom line: NRSC chair can be a brutal gig, with lots of time on planes away from family. — Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

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The next big dilemma for the U.S. Senate GOP: Who should lead them in 2025 and beyond?

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Republicans shortly after Election Day will face a major decision for their chamber as well as the national party when they pick a new leader.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/08/the-next-big-dilemma-for-the-u-s-senate-gop-who-should-lead-them-in-2025-and-beyond/?

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🚨 Schumer's danger signs

The warning signs are flashing for Democratic candidates in three of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's most important states for playing defense.

Why it matters: The Rust Belt toss-ups of Michigan, Ohio and — as of today — Wisconsin could make the difference between a tiny GOP Senate majority next year or their biggest advantage since 2016.

• Schumer has strong incumbents in Wisconsin and Ohio. Both benefited from last running in 2018 when Donald Trump's name was off the ballot, but his presidency drove Democratic turnout.
• One of Schumer's earlier toss-ups — Montana — is trending the wrong way. Cook moved it last month to "lean Republican."

🦡 1) Wisconsin: We told you last week that Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D) re-election fight was setting off alarms among Wisconsin Dems.

• Today, Cook tightened her race against wealthy GOP businessman Eric Hovde from "lean Dem" to "toss-up." Baldwin cleaned house in 2018, winning by 10 percentage points.

🔥 2) Ohio: Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is a red state survivor, but his once-sizable lead over Bernie Moreno has been shrinking.

• NRSC internal polling showed them deadlocked at 46%, the Hill reported today. Back in 2018, Brown won by seven percentage points.

⏰ 3) Michigan: Democratic nominee Rep. Elissa Slotkin has sounded the alarm as polling shows former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) closing in.

• Super PAC cash is flying into Michigan, as we reported. That includes $22.5 million from the GOP leader Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.

Zoom out: The good news largely stops there for Republicans, who came into the cycle with a historically favorable Senate map. The map's much better for Schumer's Democrats in 2026.

• The GOP has begun to triage: The NRSC has less than $1 million in ad reservations between both Arizona and Nevada — once considered pickup opportunities — from now until Election Day.

The other side: Democrats are relying on good news in long-shot races, including ratings changes in their favor in Texas and Nebraska.

• NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg said the party has seen "positive movement across the board" after being "outspent badly over the summer."
• DSCC Communications Director David Bergstein said that the GOP's "flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map — and while the NRSC is slashing their advertising the DSCC is going on offense."

— Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam