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Thousands of children adopted by Americans are without citizenship. Congress is unwilling to act

HENDERSON, Nev. (AP) — The 50-year-old newspaper was turning yellow and its edges fraying, so she had it laminated, not as a memento but as proof — America made a promise to her, and did not keep it.

https://apnews.com/article/adoption-citizenship-immigration-congress-0c71631786c35f7042ff99726e9dcd23?

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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🚨 New Senate deciders
 
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Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are about to get the Joe Manchin treatment — making them two of the most scrutinized, obsessively-covered and influential lawmakers in D.C.

Why it matters: The two Republicans are instantly the most critical votes in Congress if the Senate GOP gets its expected slim majority, with 51 or 52 seats.

  • They'll have extraordinary influence over Cabinet confirmations, spending packages and even Supreme Court picks.
  • If former President Trump wins in November, Mitch McConnell's successor as Senate GOP leader — John Thune, John Cornyn or someone else — will need Collins and Murkowski on board to pass their legislative agenda.
  • If Vice President Harris wins the White House, the two senators will be Democrats' go-to votes to get judges and top officials confirmed.

The big picture: Manchin served as a serious check on President Biden's congressional plans — blocking efforts to nuke the filibuster and forcing a spending limit on the Build Back Better plan.

  • If Trump wins, he could face similar roadblocks on legislation or controversial Cabinet picks — or even more Supreme Court appointments.
  • Collins will have particular power, being in line to chair the Appropriations Committee in a GOP majority.

🎤 Murkowski and Collins will be "extremely, extremely, extremely important" in the next Congress, Manchin told us.

  • Manchin, who's retiring, called the two "the best in the world" and told us it's "important for people to be able to speak your own mind and be able to not be coerced by the party system."
  • Retiring Sen. Mitt Romney told us "it's very possible that one or two people will be able to dramatically impact policy" if one party wins total government control.

Zoom in: Neither Collins nor Murkowski have endorsed Trump this year. They are two of only three GOP senators left who voted to convict Trump in an impeachment trial.

  • They've voted with Republicans at a far lower rate (36%) than their colleagues this year, according to CQ's VoteWatch. That largely reflects them helping Democrats get judicial nominations through.
  • Collins "believes generally that presidents are due some deference when it comes to nominations," spokesperson Annie Clark told us.
  • Reproductive rights issues are an area where they're willing to break with the GOP. They voted this month with Democrats for legislation to ensure access to IVF.

The bottom line: Collins is up for re-election in 2026, and we're already hearing from sources speculating about whether the 71-year-old sticks around for another term.

  • If she does not, she may feel even more free to vote her conscience and leave a legacy in her last Congress.
  • If she does, she'll still need to thread the needle in Maine, which voted for Biden by a healthy nine percentage points in 2020.
  • "She has been in the position of being one of the potential swing votes throughout her entire time in the Senate, and Senator Collins will not be changing her well-established approach," Clark added.

— Stef Kight

 

♦️ Wild card watch

Here's another reason Collins and Murkowski are so essential to understanding what's possible in the Senate for the new GOP leader next year.

  • The number of wild card votes is dwindling with Manchin, Romney and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz) on their way out.

The big picture: Romney told us there's still a core of senators who've "proven that they're not allergic to legislating."

  • He named four Republicans — Bill Cassidy (La.), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Todd Young (Ind.) and Jerry Moran (Kans.) — and Democrats Mark Warner (Va.) and Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) as people who'll legislate.
  • Two more who could join: Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who will take Romney's seat next year, and former Gov. Larry Hogan, who is running a longshot bid for a seat in Maryland.

— Stef Kight

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Senate GOP’s Scheme To Let Trump Self-Police Ethics

Former President Donald Trump’s top ally in the Senate is working to block the appointment of the government’s top anti-corruption enforcer until after Inauguration Day — a tactic designed to give Trump the power to handpick his own ethics overseer if he wins the election.

https://www.levernews.com/senate-gops-scheme-to-let-trump-self-police-ethics/?

😬 Johnson's ex-GOP migraine
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Photo: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Some of Mike Johnson's most prominent former colleagues are now effectively working to take away his gavel.

Why it matters: They're technically #NeverTrump. In practice, they're #anti-Mike.

  • 🥊 Sure, cross-aisle endorsements happen, but they rarely trickle down to lowly House lawmakers fighting for reelection.
  • This year is different. The blast radius of anti-Trump animus is much wider.
  • The vitriol and velocity of #NeverTrump Republicans endorsing Democrats is also surprising.

NEWS: Former Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), Dave Trott (R-Mich.) and Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) endorsed Democrat Janelle Stelson in a letter we scooped today.

  • They slammed Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), for his right-wing voting record and involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
  • "We know how difficult it is to vote for a member of the other political party, but having known and worked with Scott Perry, we urge our fellow Republicans to join us in supporting his opponent," they wrote.

Zoom in: Comstock spearheaded the letter and has been particularly active in supporting down-ballot Democrats.

  • Hakeem Jeffries praised Comstock as "such an American patriot" after she appeared yesterday at an event for House candidate Eugene Vindman and other Democrats in Virginia.
  • Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) thanked Comstock for "honoring the oath that she's previously taken to our Constitution ... and for supporting people like Eugene."
  • Another increasingly prolific endorser of congressional Democrats is former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who is backing Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and John Avlon, the Democrat running against Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.).

Between the lines: Cheney has gone as far as to publicly spar with Johnson — her onetime deputy when she was House GOP Conference chair — and cast him as essentially unfit to be House speaker.

  • Cheney and Johnson engaged in a tense text exchange after Cheney publicly called out her former colleague, we scooped last week.

The bottom line: Examples of the reverse — Democrats or former Democrats backing Republicans — are fewer and farther between.

  • Ann Ashford, the widow of former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.), has endorsed Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) for reelection to her late husband's seat.
  • Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) — who, like Riggleman and Walsh, is now an independent — has endorsed several Republican congressional candidates as well as Trump.

— Andrew Solender and Hans Nichols

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🚨 Anti-trans ads spree

The Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund has spent $54 million in recent months on ads slamming Democrats over support for transgender athletes and gender-affirming care for kids.

Why it matters: Senate races are an epicenter of the fight over trans rights.

  • "It's the social issue that Democrats are furthest away from the center of America on," Mike Berg, NRSC spokesperson, told Axios.
  • Gender-affirming care is backed as medically necessary by leading health groups like the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics. That care rarely involves surgery for minors, even for older teens.

🚨 Since mid-July, Republicans have spent over $77 million on ads about transgender issues in races in 10 states, according to AdImpact data as of Oct. 24.

  • Their top spend is in Ohio, where SLF has spent a whopping $32 million for ads saying Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) allowed "trans biological men in girls locker rooms" and "sex change surgery for kids."
  • Advocacy groups argue that GOP anti-trans messaging is not effective in influencing voters' decisions, but could endanger trans people.

️ Democrats have spent $9 million to refute the GOP attacks or hit back at Republican opposition to broader LGBTQ rights.

  • An ad from the Brown campaign called the GOP attacks a "complete lie" and asked voters to "reject the lies."
  • In Texas, Democratic nominee Colin Allred released an ad responding to attacks from Sen. Ted Cruz, saying: "Let me be clear: I don't want boys playing girls' sports, or any of this ridiculous stuff Ted Cruz is saying."
  • Groups supporting Cruz have spent $15.8 million on aggressive ads bashing support for transgender athletes competing in women's sports.

— Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam

👀 House GOP's save-the-date

House Republicans will vote on their leaders for next year on Nov. 13, the day after they get back for the lame-duck session, we scooped earlier this evening.

  • Members have a Nov. 12 deadline to inform GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y) if they plan to run for a leadership position.
  • A rules organizing conference is set for Nov. 14, with a ratification of the GOP's rules on Nov. 15, according to a notice circulated today to members.

— Juliegrace Brufke

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😍 Scoop ... Johnson's happy surprise

Mike Johnson and his data gurus are cautiously optimistic that they're banking more early votes than the Democrats this cycle.

Why it matters: Donald Trump has had a change of heart on early voting, and his supporters appear to be following his lead.

  • Take Nevada's 3rd District. Four years ago, registered Democrats had returned more ballots than Republicans by a 10-percentage-point margin one week out. This year, Republicans are counting a 1% advantage, according to data shared by the NRCC. (Democrats won the seat in 2020 and 2022.)
  • In 2020, in California's 47th District, Republicans went into the final week 15 percentage points down on returned ballots from registered partisans. This year, they are even. (They lost the seat in 2020.)
  • In nearly every battleground district where the states provide a breakdown by partisan ID, Republicans like what they're seeing.

What they're saying: "The NRCC is fighting to get Republicans to bank their vote for Donald Trump and a Republican House majority, and that work is paying off," said National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Richard Hudson.

  • "We are full speed ahead to get every Republican voter to the polls," Hudson said.
  • "Celebrating incomplete data is kind of like spiking the football at the one-yard line. You didn't score anything — you actually just fumbled the football," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told us.
  • Democrats look at the early numbers and see reliable Republican voters and not a massive wave of new GOP votes.

Between the lines: Any story on early voting in the year 2024 is required to carry two massive asterisks.

  1. Early voting always "cannibalizes" Election Day voting. No one knows if diehard Republicans (or Democrats) are simply doing what they would do on Election Day: pull the lever for their candidate.
  2. Independents are an early voting mystery: Even if they are returning ballots early, the parties have no idea which way they are voting.

Zoom out: The pandemic changed voting behavior and rules, making it easier for Americans to vote earlier, either in person or by mail or drop box.

  • There could be a landslide in those early independent ballots. We'll only know when everything is counted.

The bottom line: Early leads can vanish. So can late leads. Ask the Chicago Bears.

— Hans Nichols

🤝 Scoop: Schumer's promised vote

Chuck Schumer recently promised Jewish leaders that he would try later this year to pass a bill aimed at curbing antisemitism on college campuses, we have learned.

Why it matters: The bill would be Congress' most forceful response to the pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses across the country this spring, which sometimes led to the harassment of Jewish students.

  • However, critics argue the definition of antisemitism the legislation offers is overly broad.

Between the lines: A nonprofit group has spent about $5 million on an ad campaign blasting Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish lawmaker, for his inaction.

  • Schumer has privately said he plans to attach the Antisemitism Awareness Act — making the federal government adopt a broad definition of antisemitism to enforce anti-discrimination laws — to a must-pass defense bill after the election, multiple sources told us.
  • The bill passed the House overwhelmingly over the summer, but it has been a divisive issue in the Democratic Party, laying bare internal strife.
  • The nonprofit group behind the ads, Florence Avenue Initiative, doesn't have to disclose its donors.

The big picture: Frustrations from pro-Israel groups have grown since the bill passed the House in May, repeatedly asking Schumer to get it through the Senate.

  • Sources familiar with the discussions say they remain skeptical that Schumer will get the bill through the Senate this year, with one saying they will believe it when they see it.

Between the lines: Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Dave McCormick has used the Senate's inaction on the bill to attack Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and court Jewish voters.

  • McCormick slammed Casey and Senate Democrats for leaving Washington this fall without passing the bill in a September op-ed for the New York Post.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

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Save the date: Senate GOP leader vote

Mitch McConnell's heir will be chosen on Nov. 13, the day after the Senate comes back for its lame-duck session.

  • The race among Sens. John Thune, John Cornyn and Rick Scott is the first competitive GOP leader race in nearly 18 years.
  • House Republicans are also picking their leaders on the 13th, as we scooped yesterday.

The bottom line: This is a defeat for the Senate conservatives who'd put up a fight to delay the vote to later in the year.

— Stef Kight

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🎯 Far-right crashes leader race

The battle lines for the Senate GOP leader race are finally in sharp focus:

  • The dark horse is sitting it out, the MAGA influencers are swarming in and a deadline's been set.

Why it matters: Sen. John Thune, currently the GOP No. 2, has long been considered a front-runner to replace Mitch McConnell. But several GOP sources have noted serious momentum behind Sen. John Cornyn's bid in recent weeks.

  • One senior Senate source told us Cornyn has a strong pitch for senators to name him leader.

Zoom in: Both Thune and Cornyn have had rocky relationships with the former president but have worked hard to smooth them over.

  • The potential for Trump to weigh in has loomed over the race, with some senators hoping that he won't, but no one really knows.
  • A neutral Trump would allow them to duke it out the old-fashioned way: Reminding senators who got them elected and what they can do to put them in the majority. The vote is secret.

Between the lines: The Johns have dodged a dark-horse challenge from NRSC chair Sen. Steve Daines, who could have been a Trump mystery candidate.

  • Behind the scenes, Daines had hinted to colleagues for several weeks that he wasn't interested in the leader job, sources told us. Now it's official, as he told Semafor he's out.
  • But Daines' decision not to run doesn't solve the riddle of if — or when — the former president will weigh in.

Driving the news: Enter Laura Loomer, the far-right activist who was a fixture at Trump's side in recent months.

  • "We the loyal MAGA BASE are going to revolt against a Cornyn or Thune leadership installation," Loomer posted on X today.
  • This came after Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was interviewed on her show.

Zoom out: Thune has been zipping across the country fundraising and campaigning for candidates who could help hand the GOP a Senate majority. He's hit eight states this month, some multiple times.

  • He's raised more than $31 million this cycle and set a new record for the largest one-time donation to the GOP campaign arm at $4 million.
  • Cornyn has spent time with Trump twice this month and continued his long track record of hard-dollar fundraising for GOP candidates, including visiting Michigan, Indiana and Nevada over the recess.
  • He's raised a whopping $400 million in hard dollars since 2002, he announced earlier this month.

— Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

️ Jeffries' 11th-hour lifelines

Some House Democrats are building a de facto closing message around a pair of self-inflicted October surprises from the GOP.

  • Why it matters: Democrats are six seats away from promoting Hakeem Jeffries to speaker.

Lifeline 1: Speaker Mike Johnson, campaigning for Rep. Susan Wild's (D-Pa.) GOP opponent Ryan Mackenzie, appeared to criticize the Affordable Care Act.

  • "No Obamacare. The ACA is so deeply ingrained, we need massive reform to make this work, and we got a lot of ideas on how to do that," the speaker said, according to video reported by NBC News.
  • The Jeffries-linked House Majority PAC blasted out a series of press releases pushing Republicans in key races to denounce or disinvite Johnson over the comments.
  • Johnson's pushback: "Despite the dishonest characterizations from the Harris campaign, the audio and transcript make clear that I offered no such promise to end Obamacare, and in fact acknowledged that the policy is 'deeply ingrained' in our health care system," he said in a statement.

Lifeline 2: Democrats running in districts with large Puerto Rican populations were quick to jump on comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's comparison of Puerto Rico to an "island of garbage" at Trump's rally on Sunday.

  • Democratic House candidates Wild, Rep. Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Mondaire Jones (N.Y.) and Laura Gillen (N.Y.) swiftly put out statements condemning the joke.
  • Gillen's opponent, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.), condemned Hinchcliffe's rhetoric — with the Trump campaign also backing away from it.
  • But Gillen tied him to it anyway. "Anthony D'Esposito has given Trump a full-throated endorsement, cheered him on at every turn, and even rode in the motorcade with him this past weekend," she said in a statement to us.

— Andrew Solender

🛑 Trump's Senate blockade

The Senate's new power structure is already warning Trump that his confirmation wish list has its limits.

  • First up: Don't expect a successful Cabinet confirmation for RFK Jr., who says he's been promised control of U.S. health agencies if Trump wins the White House, Semafor reports.

Why it matters: As we told you Sunday, Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) will serve as effective vetoes on Trump Cabinet nominations unless the GOP overperforms in Senate races next week.

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Hakeem Jeffries chooses calm over chaos as Democrats work to win the House majority

PALMDALE, Calif. (AP) — This election, he has warned, is about the economy. Freedom. Stopping Project 2025 and the MAGA extremes.

https://apnews.com/article/congress-elections-house-hakeem-jeffries-democrats-speaker-f503bef15e57604206e88c53edb3ad57?

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Senate

Control of the Senate is up for grabs on Tuesday and, although Republicans are well-positioned to win the majority, Democrats cannot be counted out entirely. That’s because their well-funded candidates have consistently overperformed at the top of the ticket in polling in many of the most important races. And even as the Senate map has become more daunting for Democrats with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin retiring, opportunities to mitigate GOP gains have opened up in Texas and, increasingly, Nebraska. Click here for CNN’s complete rankings of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024.

 

Who will replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader? It remains deeply uncertain

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans vying to replace longtime leader Mitch McConnell have been crossing the country to campaign and fundraise for colleagues, making their final arguments before a consequential ballot the week after the presidential election. But their pitches are mostly behind closed doors, and most GOP senators won’t yet say which lawmaker they are backing.

https://apnews.com/article/senate-republicans-leadership-mcconnell-thune-cornyn-scott-d17b341874cb6627f1d75d7051feebe4?

🥊 Johnson vs. Jeffries

The touchiest subject in the House struck again today over whether both parties will commit to certifying the presidential winner in January, no matter who wins.

  • Jeffries today on "Good Morning America": "My colleagues on the other side of the aisle don't seem to be capable of unequivocally saying that they will certify the election and the verdict that is rendered by the American people."
  • Mike Johnson to us in an exclusive interview late last month: "I would hope every member of Congress, including [House Oversight Committee ranking member] Jamie Raskin, would commit to following the Constitution and certifying the election."
  • Raskin, in a statement to us, said he is "of course committed to following the Constitution and certifying the actual results of the 2024 presidential election, and I'm thrilled to learn that Speaker Johnson says he is too."

— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

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🏛️ GOP eyes dream Senate majority
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. Senate elections.
Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

Senate Republicans now have a 54- or even 55-seat majority within reach after an unexpectedly strong performance by former President Trump in swing states with competitive down-ballot races, Axios' Stef W. Kight writes.

  • Why it matters: Nothing is final, but coattails from Trump could give the next Senate GOP's leader their biggest majority in years.

The extra seats could provide a cushion against frequent detractors within the party like Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

  • It also means Democrats will have to work even harder to gain back a majority in 2026.

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Deflated Dems could flip House

Democrats are turning to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as their last hope for stopping a Trump-led Republican trifecta in Washington, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

  • Why it matters: The party is reeling from a stunning wipeout in the Senate and the former president winning the White House, with the race for the House on a knife's edge.

"Nauseous" is how one senior House Democrat summed up the party's mood to Axios.

  • House Democrats are emerging as the potential "thin blue line" against total GOP control, said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.)

A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.

Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

🔬 Zoom in: House Democrats and Republicans each appear poised to flip a handful of seats, making the battle for control of the House a pure toss-up this morning.

  • Democrats are on track to flip several seats in New York.
  • Republicans, for their part, appear poised to capture Democratic seats in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.

What to watch: The outcome is likely to hinge on races in a handful of Western states that could take days or even weeks to call, such as Alaska and California.

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Democrats oust two House Republicans in New York, clawing back GOP gains

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Democrats in New York unseated two first-term Republican incumbents in the U.S. House on Tuesday, one in the Hudson Valley and the other in a district that includes Syracuse, rolling back some recent GOP gains in the state.

https://apnews.com/article/new-york-congress-long-island-election-2024-d9971985ba0440117d41b1fd0d921e56?

Hochman elected Los Angeles County district attorney, ousting progressive Gascón

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Nathan Hochman defeated George Gascón in the race for Los Angeles County district attorney, unseating an incumbent known as the godfather of progressive prosecutors.

https://apnews.com/article/district-attorney-los-angeles-criminal-justice-reform-progressive-295f38b9e5a86a1f75e9b017e6b38ca2?

House & Senate races

Republicans will win control of the Senate, CNN projects — a victory for the party that has been locked out of the majority in the chamber since 2021. A GOP majority will put the Senate in a position to boost a Trump presidency and resume the former president's significant reshaping of the judiciary. Democrats had always faced a prohibitive path this year in defending their narrow control of the Senate, given that the incumbents facing reelection are either in states Trump had carried twice before or narrowly lost in 2020. In the House, Republicans are defending a narrow majority and it could take a week or more before control is officially determined.

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🚨 Johnson's stunning comeback
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.
Data: Associated Press; Chart: Axios Visuals

Barely six months ago, Mike Johnson needed Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to rescue his House speakership. Now he's the favorite for speaker next year.

Why it matters: Johnson's risky parlay of limping it along on must-pass legislation while tying himself to President-elect Trump's fate has paid out big.

  • Democrats admit to us the GOP has the inside track and could even grow its five-seat majority.

🔮 It's not Johnson's dream majority.

  • He may not have the juice to reverse rules changes that castrated the speakership. That single-member motion to vacate may survive his era.

Getting House members into the Trump administration may be tricky too.

  • Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us exclusively last week House Republicans would want a cushion of eight to 12 seats to feel good about losing members to the administration while keeping a working majority.

🔥 But with Trump in the White House, Johnson has a viable route to boxing out his House GOP critics on government funding and much more.

  • "I'm ready to take the field with all of you, and I am humbly asking for your support to continue leading this Conference as your Speaker," he told House Republicans in a letter to members sent today.

The bottom line: House Democrats at this point would have to defend most of their vulnerable incumbents and pick up a multitude of GOP seats in California and Arizona to eke out a majority.

  • "Their pathway is wider and ours is narrow," Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) told us.
  • Democratic leadership was "disappointed" about the overall outcome of the election during a call tonight but still holding out hope for a come-from-behind House victory, a source familiar with the matter told us.

— Justin Green, Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender

️ Scoop: Cotton staying in Senate

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has told Trump's team he will not be accepting administration roles, despite being a top contender for positions including CIA director and secretary of Defense, two sources familiar tell us.

Why it matters: Cotton — a relatively young, conservative defense hawk — is a much-speculated future presidential contender.

  • Cotton will remain a Trump ally in the Senate, where he is running against Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for conference chair, the No. 3 Senate GOP leadership position.
  • He's thought to have the edge in the leadership race scheduled for next Wednesday, sources tell us.
  • Ernst, who is currently ranked No. 4, was upset when Cotton jumped the gun earlier this year in announcing his bid for Republican Conference chair without giving her a heads-up.

— Stef Kight

Why 53+ matters most

All that's left in the Senate is to find out whether the GOP margin next year is two, three or four.

  • They're at 52 seats, with Republicans Dave McCormick and Sam Brown leading in Pennsylvania and Nevada, respectively. Of the two, Democrats have a better shot at surviving in Nevada.

Why it matters: For either John Thune or John Cornyn — Rick Scott's still a long shot at best for GOP leader — the margin matters a ton.

  • In the short-term, 54 GOP senators would mean the new Republican leader can take four defections and still move nominations and legislation through special budget procedures, with Vice President-elect Vance breaking the tie.
  • Convincing five GOP senators to band together for a blocking coalition is exponentially harder than four.
  • But if they stall out at 52, just one Republican would need to join with Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) to hold the leader hostage.

In the long term, a four-seat majority relieves pressure on the GOP for two more cycles.

  • In 2026, Republicans will have to defend only one seat in a blue state (Maine) and one in a battleground (North Carolina).
  • In 2028, Republicans will be on defense in just two battlegrounds (North Carolina and Wisconsin). If they win three of those four (and keep all the Trump states), they are looking at a six-year reign.

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

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🏛️ Hill leaders close to Trump
 
Photo illustration of Mike Johnson,  John Thune, Tom Cotton, Lindsey Graham, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries in front of the Capital building.
 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Getty Images

 

Five congressional leaders who have juice in President-elect Trump's Washington:

  • Speaker Mike Johnson: The guy grew into the job, quickly by D.C. standards, and smartly hooked his fate to Trump. Three months ago, Johnson was a dead man walking. Now he's stronger than ever. He'll likely run a very narrow House — again — and hope he stays on Trump's good side.
  • Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.): He's the strong favorite to be the new Mitch McConnell. If and when elected Senate Majority Leader, he'll be the most powerful man on Capitol Hill. First up: Get Trump's cabinet confirmed. Then start gaming out an epic tax fight.
  • Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.): Arguably Trump's favorite senator — a phone-a-friend in the Senate. Long mentioned for SecDef, Cotton instead will remain a Trump ally in the Senate — where he's running against Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for conference chair, the No. Senate GOP 3 leadership position, Axios Sneak Peek scooped last night. He'll remain Trump's TV-savvy defender — front and center on Ukraine and the Middle East.
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.): He's a complicated dude. Often, Trump's biggest backer. But Trump runs hot and cold on him. His perch will be his power — chairman of the Judiciary Committee, as Republicans look to stack conservatives in the courts.
  • Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer + House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: Trump will deal with few elected Dems — these two are basically it. They'll both likely get another shot at running the Senate and House. Job 1 and 2: Figure out how to make Trump's life hell and win back Congress in '26.

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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🚨Scoop: Trump waved off Scott
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos: Andrew Harnik, Anna Moneymaker, Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images

President-elect Trump privately dismissed Rick Scott's Senate GOP leader bid in the weeks before the election, telling allies it is "not serious," we have learned.

  • A senior Trump campaign official pushed back, saying Trump "hasn't weighed in on the leadership race and anyone who says differently is wrong."

Why it matters: People very close to Trump have privately signaled their support for Scott as leader, which the Florida senator hopes could turn into public backing by Trump, three sources familiar with the dynamic have told us.

  • Scott had signs at his campaign victory party on Tuesday that read "Rick Scott for Senate Majority Leader," and he focused his acceptance speech on what he would do as leader.
  • Fellow conservative firebrand Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) called on Trump to endorse Scott for leader, and controversial MAGA personality Laura Loomer has also been stumping for Scott.

Zoom out: Most sources we hear from in and around the Capitol view John Thune as the most likely winner, though John Cornyn has had some momentum.

  • But sources were confused by Thune's choice in two recent TV appearances to discourage Trump from endorsing.
  • "I think it's in his best interest — to stay out of that," Thune told CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning. "These Senate secret ballot elections are best left to senators. And he's got to work with all of us when it's all said and done. But whatever he decides to do, that's going to be his prerogative, as we know."
  • Cornyn has been steering clear of that, but made his pitch to Trump on Fox News on Monday, saying, "As I told President Trump, I'm interested in getting the band back together again."

The bottom line: "At the end of the day, the president does like to be with people that have a possibility to win too," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told us in a short interview today.

  • Mullin has publicly backed Thune. He regularly talks with Trump and has encouraged the former president not to weigh in.
  • With 53 GOP Senate seats, "it's not worth the political capital for the president to spend, because if he endorses one, that means he's made the other two mad," Mullin said.

— Stef Kight

👀 Schumer's survivors
 
Table showing the party control of the Minnesota House, Senate and Governorship since 1999. One party has only controlled all three chambers 2 times in the past 13 legislative sessions.
Data: Associated Press; Table: Thomas Oide/Axios

The only silver lining for Chuck Schumer this week after the GOP's rout is that four Democratic senators are surviving or winning in Trump-won battleground states.

Why it matters: These split-ticket survivors are enough to give Democrats a chance at retaking a Senate majority in two years.

  • Sen. Bob Casey narrowly missed this list. The AP called Pennsylvania for Republican Dave McCormick this afternoon.

The big picture: The last time we saw major split-ticket action was 2012, when six states — Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia and Missouri — split their tickets, choosing Obama for president and Republicans as their senators.

  • It didn't happen at all in 2016, and only Maine split its ticket in 2020, voting for President Biden and GOP Sen. Susan Collins.

— Stephen Neukam

🗓 Save the date: Jeffries' leader races

House Democrats will hold their leadership elections on Nov. 19 and 20, Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) announced today.

Why it matters: Hakeem Jeffries is poised to stay on as leader despite Democrats' disappointing performance in Tuesday's elections.

  • Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) are expected to remain the No. 2 and 3 Democrats without any opposition.

Driving the news: Aguilar said in a "dear colleague" letter to House Democrats that "while control of the House has not yet been decided ... we must prepare to continue our work to put People Over Politics in the 119th Congress while the process of counting every vote continues."

  • That echoes Jeffries' statement earlier today noting Democrats have a theoretical chance to retake the House if uncalled races in California and Arizona go their way.
  • Many Democrats are pessimistic about their party's chances of winning control of the chamber.

Reps. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) and Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) have signaled plans to run for Democratic caucus vice chair Ted Lieu's (D-Calif.) spot should Democrats gain control and Lieu jumps up to caucus chair.

  • Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) has floated running to replace Jacobs as the leadership representative for members who have served five terms or less in that scenario.

— Andrew Solender

🏛️ Hakeem Jeffries' moment
 
Photo illustration of Hakeem Jeffries collaged with the US Capital and game strategy drawings.
 

Photo illustration: Allie Carl/Axios. Photo: Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

Whether he becomes the House's speaker or its minority leader in the new Congress, Hakeem Jeffries is vowing to lead the Democratic resistance, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

  • Why it matters: Jeffries, the current House minority leader, promised his biggest donors yesterday that House Democrats will "hold the line" on any potential threats to democracy from President-elect Trump, Axios has learned.

At the same time, he said he'll rely on his growing relationship with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to ensure that the basics of governing, such as funding the government, are completed, according to Jeffries' allies and advisers.

🔬 Zoom in: In a private video call with donors yesterday afternoon, Jeffries said Democrats will win at least 214 seats.

  • That would be two more than they hold in the current House, and five short of enough to make Jeffries the speaker.
  • He noted that House Democrats have outperformed Vice President Harris in many of the party's "Frontline" districts, with its most vulnerable incumbents.

Between the lines: Trump intensely dislikes former Speaker Pelosi, but privately he respected her political skills as House speaker.

  • Jeffries was one of the impeachment managers in Trump's second trial, but it's unclear whether Trump thinks of him as a worthy adversary.

👂 What we're hearing: Jeffries is a more cautious leader than Pelosi, his colleagues say.

  • "He starts with a carrot, but he's not afraid of pulling out the knife," one Democratic lawmaker told Axios. "He's a big-tent, pragmatic guy, and he understands how to get things done."

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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Cotton locks it down

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has secured a solid majority of Republican senators' votes to elect him GOP Conference Chair — the No. 3 leadership position, Axios' Stef Kight reports.

  • Why it matters: Cotton has long served as a bridge between Senate leadership and the more conservative faction of the conference. He also holds sway in President-elect Trump's orbit.

Cotton had been a serious contender for top positions in a Trump administration, but he decided to remain in the Senate, as Axios first reported.

What to know about the House push to expand some Social Security benefits

WASHINGTON (AP) — The House is expected to try next week to pass a Social Security-related bill to ensure benefits for workers who are also eligible for other pensions despite a surprise move by hard-right Freedom Caucus leaders to derail the effort.

https://apnews.com/article/social-security-benefits-pensions-216600f2948518f6bda962045826aa4d?

Congress Is About to Gift Trump Sweeping Powers to Crush His Political Enemies

Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire for revenge.

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/10/trump-nonprofit-tax-exempt-political-enemies/?

Crypto Sweep Puts Congress on Notice: Vote With Us or We’ll Come After You With Millions

“In all likelihood, crypto deregulation is coming,” said a consumer advocate. “It looks like a tragedy waiting to happen.”

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/07/crypto-donors-trump-congress-regulations/?

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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House

Republicans are hoping to seize unified control in Washington but the balance of the House of Representatives is still undecided. So far, the GOP has clinched the presidency and flipped the Senate, but an estimated 1,000,000 votes are left to be counted in House races, mostly in California. Republicans are now four seats away from holding on to the majority, while Democrats are 13 seats away from taking the chamber. Meanwhile, Democrats are analyzing the election loss after Trump won in all seven of the country's battleground states. While some shifts in Trump's direction were expected, others revealed voter shifts that could reshape America's political landscape.

phkrause

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🗳️ Dems' House hopes fade
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.
Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

House Democrats' hopes for a majority are dwindling, with some now predicting that their best-case scenario is falling just one seat short, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

phkrause

Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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2 hours ago, phkrause said:
🗳️ Dems' House hopes fade
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.
Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

House Democrats' hopes for a majority are dwindling, with some now predicting that their best-case scenario is falling just one seat short, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

my Guy was  just a mess hearing the trump won the "title"

now n discussion with me and friends we cant say a word

he has detached for his mental health

and remembering me telling trump will win the title and another way back in spring

so no sirprise ..God got me ready ready

but still my guy was crestfallen

he stopped watching the supreme court of lefts of The View

wont watch bill Mayer!

my head is spinning but not my heart

imagine the darkness ascending globally thru  Every people hard core faith/religion/body

and me seeing denial in church live steamed

well anyhoo ..

  A greying blackness ..a fear so bad ..an anger so worst on both sides

all feeling betrayed

its a force of nature but when it seems all is lost

Fire from ashes will arise

a believing Body with Jesus head attached 

romanced by Jesus ..filling the chambers of the heart with a deeper profound FORGIVENESS (so forever n ever complete)

till the inside thats burns nursed for eons  bursts fourth with mind bending tricks

err pure river flowing ..there is no stopping for water that tosses the sea

a very different kind fflood

 

 

For all Eternity God waited in anticipation for  You  to show up to give You a Message - YOUR INCLUDED !!! { a merry dance }?️‍?

" If you tarry 'til you're better
You will never come at all "   .. "I Will Rise" by the late great saved  Glen Campbell

If your picture of God is starting to feel too good to be true, you're starting to move in the right direction. :candle:

 

"My bounty is as boundless as the sea,
My love as deep; the more I give to thee,
The more I have, for both are infinite."

Romeo and Juliet

 

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3 hours ago, phkrause said:
🗳️ Dems' House hopes fade
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.
Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

House Democrats' hopes for a majority are dwindling, with some now predicting that their best-case scenario is falling just one seat short, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

3 hours ago, phkrause said:
🗳️ Dems' House hopes fade
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.
Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

House Democrats' hopes for a majority are dwindling, with some now predicting that their best-case scenario is falling just one seat short, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

As much as I disagree with democrat ideology, having control of senate, congress and White House without the usual checks and balances will be interesting

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4 hours ago, phkrause said:
🗳️ Dems' House hopes fade
 
A map showing the current 2024 election results for U.S. House elections.
Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals

House Democrats' hopes for a majority are dwindling, with some now predicting that their best-case scenario is falling just one seat short, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

so i a truthteller kinda think my Guy should at least tell him all branches have followed the dress rehearsal ..beast style very eargerly

i must even though his face may contort for a moment 🤯

then resigned but still no more talk of it !😘

For all Eternity God waited in anticipation for  You  to show up to give You a Message - YOUR INCLUDED !!! { a merry dance }?️‍?

" If you tarry 'til you're better
You will never come at all "   .. "I Will Rise" by the late great saved  Glen Campbell

If your picture of God is starting to feel too good to be true, you're starting to move in the right direction. :candle:

 

"My bounty is as boundless as the sea,
My love as deep; the more I give to thee,
The more I have, for both are infinite."

Romeo and Juliet

 

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Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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