Congress: The Senate & The House

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🙇‍♂️ Trump's acolytes

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Kevin Dietsch, Anna Moneymaker and Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images By this time tomorrow, Mitch McConnell will have a replacement. But it won't be an heir. Why it matters: Any of the three candidates for Senate GOP leader will be far more willing to work with Trump and empower conservatives than McConnell would ever dare. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) plans to tell senators tonight he won't assume bills will get 60 votes and will encourage floor debate and amendments. He also is promising regular meetings with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President Vance as well as a December conference on GOP priorities, a source familiar tells us. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has promised more amendments and power and input from average senators while focusing on getting young, conservative judges confirmed. He plans to discuss over the lame-duck session how to make the chamber work better. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) launched his bid as the leader most committed to significant change. He has taken a notably more public approach, blanketing the airwaves and riding a wave of support from influential voices in Trump world. 🏠 Over in the House, Johnson's Republicans are prepared to do whatever Trump wants, as we told you earlier today in a Hill Leaders Thought Bubble. You saw it in April, when Johnson visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) tried to oust him as speaker. You saw it in May, when Johnson went to New York to stand with Trump at his hush-money criminal trial. You even saw it this fall, when Johnson wasted weeks entertaining Trump's notions on the government funding stopgap before finally punting any fight to after the election. ⏩ And you saw it today, when Johnson said he'd wait for Trump to decide what he wants to do on government spending. Trump will be on Capitol Hill tomorrow, and no one's doubting his grip over today's GOP. — Stef Kight, Hans Nichols and Juliegrace Brufke Welcome to the Leaderboard   Data: RealClear Polling; Chart: Axios Visuals The first four days of the week you'll get Leaderboards, our visual way to understand how the Big 4 compare to each other on just about anything you can rank. On Fridays, you'll get Powerboards, a visual way to understand people's power and influence by their proximity to the Big 4.

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Congress

House Republicans will hold leadership elections today where Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to be reelected as leader. Some House conservatives are privately discussing whether to float a challenger to Johnson in the speaker's race, but it would be a symbolic gesture of protest. It will be a secret ballot and Johnson needs a simple majority to win. Over in the Senate, Republicans vote by secret ballot to choose a new leader. President-elect Trump’s most vocal supporters are organizing behind Florida Sen. Rick Scott, a controversial figure who is still viewed as a long-shot. The more establishment options are Sen. John Thune of South Dakota and Sen. John Cornyn of Texas. 

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🚨Thune's holy sh*t surprise

The nomination of MAGA fire-breather Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general has put soon-to-be Senate Majority Leader John Thune on the hot seat.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump is daring Senate Republicans to defy him, just days after Thune agreed to consider recess appointments to speed up confirmations.

• This was the biggest day of Thune's career and was supposed to be a celebratory afternoon for the winning leaders.
• Instead, Trump handed Thune a conference-splitter.

🫢 Trump's announcement was met with audible gasps by House Republicans during their conference meeting this afternoon, multiple sources in the room told us.

• With the Senate GOP at 53 seats next year, Thune could only afford to lose three GOP senators and still get Gaetz confirmed.
• Thune's other option: Let Trump make a recess appointment so Gaetz can skip a confirmation and work as acting AG. Trump had two confirmed AGs and five acting AGs in his first term.

🔥 Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was "shocked" by Trump's pick: "This shows why the advice and consent process is so important and I'm sure that there will be a lot of questions raised at his hearing."

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) called Gaetz "not a serious candidate," the N.Y. Times reports.
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) told us Gaetz has "got his work really cut out for him" to get confirmed.
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.): "I'm all about counting votes, and I would probably think he's got some work cut out for him."

👀 Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) was noncommittal: "Yeah, I don't know yet. I'm going to have to think about that one," he told CNN.

NEWS: One leader who wasn't surprised was Speaker Mike Johnson, who said Trump tipped him off to the nomination this morning.

• Gaetz resigned from the House today, Johnson said tonight.
• Gaetz was under a House ethics investigation for potential "sexual misconduct and illicit drug use."
• If confirmed, Gaetz would run the Justice Department, which investigated (and didn't charge) him last year in a sex trafficking probe.

Even if the votes aren't there for Gaetz, Thune might have to let the process run his course and convince Trump he tried.

• "We're going to vet and process and look at all the noms when they come forward and we'll see. That's all going to happen in the next few weeks," Thune told CNN this afternoon.

— Justin Green, Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

🤠 Thune's posse

Amid Washington's coming MAGA influx, Thune will be surrounded by power players with long ties to establishment Washington.

Why it matters: Thune, 63, who first came to the Hill as a House member from South Dakota 27 years ago, has key Trump allies — but also deep ties downtown, and staffers who've been with him for as long as a couple decades.

The insiders: Ask who Thune listens to, and you'll likely be told Geoff Antell (pronounced "Joff"), his chief of staff who's been with him since he stepped into his current whip role.

• South Dakota-based Ryan Nelson is one of Thune's most trusted advisers and has been described as "indispensable."
• Other essential, long-time staffers: Jessica McBride (deputy chief of staff), Daffnei Reidel (head of operations) and Ryan Wrasse (communications director).

The Trump whisperers: Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) used their outsized sway with Trump to urge him to not comment on who he favored in the race.

• Former Trump official Johnny DeStefano has been a key adviser and fundraiser for Thune. He's newer to the team but will be a helpful sherpa for navigating Trump's Washington.

K Street: Many of his former staffers are now committed outside allies who will have enormous sway from K Street.

• Doug Schwartz is founder of HillNorth consulting ... Nick Rossi is at Apple. ... Stephen Replogle is at Capitol Consulting Group ... Brendon Plack is with the NFL ... Jane Lucas is a partner at Alston Bird.

— Stef Kight

🎁 Trump's gift for Johnson

House Speaker Mike Johnson is on the verge of a major breakthrough that would protect his job.

• The deal was greased by Trump's comments about unity this morning, said Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) and Main Street Caucus Chair Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.).

Why it matters: House Republicans have a deal to raise the threshold for a motion to vacate the speaker's chair from one member to nine.

• The threshold was dropped down to one at the start of the 118th Congress as part of a deal ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy made with his defectors.
• Johnson will need all the help he can get. His projected majority would be at a one-vote margin until the seats are filled by special elections if Trump gets the three House members he's appointing confirmed to administration jobs.

The bottom line: Lowering the motion to vacate helped castrate the power of the House speaker, as we wrote earlier this year.

• Raising it back up — even a little — would go a long way toward letting the speaker be a speaker.

Johnson won the GOP's internal speaker vote today after Trump said he was 100% in Johnson's corner. No. 2 Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and No. 3 Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) were also re-upped.

• The No. 4 — replacing Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), will be Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.).

— Juliegrace Brufke

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Republicans win the House and control of Congress Republicans have won enough seats to control the U.S. House, completing the party’s sweep into power and securing their hold on the government alongside president-elect Donald Trump. Read more.

Why this matters: The incoming president has promised to carry out the largest-ever deportation operation, extend tax breaks, punish his political enemies, seize control of the federal government’s most powerful tools and reshape the U.S. economy. The GOP election victories ensure that Congress will be onboard for that agenda, and Democrats will be almost powerless to check it.   When Trump was elected president in 2016, Republicans also swept Congress, but he still encountered Republican leaders resistant to his policy ideas, as well as a Supreme Court with a liberal majority. Not this time. When he returns to the White House, Trump will be working with a Republican Party that has been completely transformed by his “Make America Great Again” movement and a Supreme Court dominated by conservative justices.   Still, with a few races still uncalled the Republicans may hold the majority by just a few seats as the new Congress begins. Trump’s decision to pull from the House for posts in his administration — Reps. Matt Gaetz, Mike Waltz and Elise Stefanik so far — could complicate Speaker Mike Johnson’s ability to maintain a majority in the early days of the new Congress.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Matt Gaetz once faced a sex trafficking investigation by the Justice Department he could now lead   Speaker Mike Johnson wins GOP nomination to remain in job, faces full House vote in new year   Elon Musk says he and Trump have ‘mandate to delete’ regulations. Ethics laws could limit Musk role   Special counsel Smith asks court to pause appeal seeking to revive Trump’s classified documents case   Pennsylvania Senate contest headed toward a recount, and possibly litigation   Liberals pressure Senate Democrats to confirm more Biden judges while they can

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🐘 The new establishment

Republican leaders come January will be (from left): President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (S.D.), Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (Wyo.), Senate GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton (Ark.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (La.)

🥊 The intrigue: The new MAGA media machine got crushed in its first attempt to wage war against the Republican establishment.

• Thune easily won yesterday's secret vote to become the next Senate majority leader. Heavy MAGA favorite Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was eliminated on the first ballot, finishing behind Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Axios' Stef W. Kight writes.

🏛️ Republicans clinch trifecta

Data: AP. Map: Axios Visuals It's official: Republicans will hold the House, giving them full control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. AP bulletin at 10:28 p.m. ET: WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans win 218 US House seats, claiming a majority and completing the party's sweep into power alongside Trump. 🧮 By the numbers: The House's razor-thin margin so far is 218 Republicans to 208 Democrats, with nine races left to be called. Republicans' margin this fall was 221-213 with one vacancy. The GOP so far has flipped seven seats and Dems have flipped six, for a net GOP gain of just one seat. The bottom line: The final tally could be a GOP net gain of a single seat. Rs lead in four races; Ds lead in five. 🧨 Threat level: Speaker Johnson's ability to maintain a majority in the early days of the new Congress could be endangered by President-elect Trump's appointments. Trump has named three House members to his administration: Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) for attorney general ... Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) for UN ambassador ... and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) for national security adviser. 📊 Interactive map: Hover on any district for data.

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Lawmakers Reject Bill That Would Let Trump Destroy Nonprofits

The House nixed a bill empowering the Treasury Department to revoke nonprofits’ tax-exempt status over alleged ties to “terror.”

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/12/congress-vote-trump-nonprofits-tax-exempt-terrorism/?

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🚨 Scoop ... Schumer's trans warning

Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer heard a consistent, urgent alarm this week from Democrats who felt ambushed by GOP attacks on transgender people participating in women's sports, we have learned.

Why it matters: The losses of Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) leave Democrats without a single member representing a truly red state.

• In two private postmortem meetings attended by Schumer, Democrats said the party was caught flat-footed by the attacks, even as many campaigns aired ads pushing back.
• The GOP spent over $77 million on ads about transgender issues in U.S. Senate races in 10 states dating back to July, as we reported last month from AdImpact data.

In Ohio alone, a super PAC linked to outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell spent over $32 million on anti-trans ads.

• One ad targeting Brown said he voted for "allowing trans biological men in girls' locker rooms" and "sex change surgery for kids."
• An ad from the Brown campaign called the GOP attacks a "complete lie" and asked voters to "reject the lies."

Gender-affirming care is backed as medically necessary for some people by leading health groups. That care rarely involves surgery for minors, even for older teens.

• Half of U.S. states have passed laws banning trans students from playing in sports consistent with their gender identity, including Montana and Ohio, though some are facing court challenges.

Zoom in: Battleground Democrats who both won and lost spoke in the internal Democratic meetings this week.

• In addition to Brown and Tester, speakers included Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).

Sources briefed on the meetings described them as "listening sessions" for Schumer and the rest of the Democratic caucus to hear about what went wrong — and right — on the campaign trail.

• Senate Democrats also discussed the impact the economy, specifically inflation, had on the campaigns, and how Dems message around it.

The bottom line: Several Democratic incumbents told their colleagues the support from the campaign arm of Senate Democrats and Schumer himself was the best they had received in any election year.

• 📞 Schumer has talked privately to every caucus member since the election.
• Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a top ally of President Biden, told Axios that "Schumer raised a stunning amount of money."

— Stephen Neukam

 

⚡️ GOP's Senate resistance

Next year's outlandish confirmation fights could thrust incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune between his conference and his president.

Why it matters: Thune can afford to lose three Senate GOP votes on Trump appointees. But at least six Senate Republicans, depending on the specific nominee, could be in line to blockade Trump.

• The institutionalist: Outgoing GOP leader Sen. Mitch McConnell's every move will get top scrutiny. He isn't constrained by future leader elections, and loathes Trump.
• The moderates: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are in the position to be the critical swing votes for Thune on most issues, as we told you two weeks ago. Collins is also on retirement watch for 2026.
• The 2026 factor: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is up for reelection and is likely to face a strong Democratic challenger without Trump on the ballot.
• The holdout: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) refused to endorse Trump this cycle.
• The newcomer: Newly elected Sen. John Curtis from Utah is expected to at least partially follow in the shoes of retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) as a more moderate voice in the conference, less willing to fall in line with Trump's whims.

— Stef Kight

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👀 Anti-Gaetz plot

The leaks are already coming for Rep. Matt Gaetz after he resigned from Congress today ahead of an expected House Ethics Committee report.

Why it matters: With Gaetz out of Congress, the report is very unlikely to be released through official channels.

• First leak: The committee subpoenaed and interviewed a woman this summer who testified she was a minor in high school when Gaetz had sex with her, ABC News reports, citing sources close to the investigation.
• "These allegations are invented and would constitute false testimony to Congress," Gaetz told ABC News in response to the report.

Zoom in: Democrats on the committee are exploring whether they can formally release the report themselves, sources familiar with the matter told us.

• At least one Republican would need to join all Democrats to take action.
• But tomorrow's expected Ethics Committee meeting has been canceled, we learned tonight.
• "It'll leak because everything leaks from this place," predicted Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), one of Gaetz's harshest critics in the House GOP, who noted the deep animosity many of Gaetz's colleagues feel toward him.

— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

The leaks are already coming for Rep. Matt Gaetz after he resigned from Congress today ahead of an expected House Ethics Committee report.

Why it matters: With Gaetz out of Congress, the report is very unlikely to be released through official channels.

• First leak: The committee subpoenaed and interviewed a woman this summer who testified she was a minor in high school when Gaetz had sex with her, ABC News reports, citing sources close to the investigation.
• "These allegations are invented and would constitute false testimony to Congress," Gaetz told ABC News in response to the report.

Zoom in: Democrats on the committee are exploring whether they can formally release the report themselves, sources familiar with the matter told us.

• At least one Republican would need to join all Democrats to take action.
• But tomorrow's expected Ethics Committee meeting has been canceled, we learned tonight.
• "It'll leak because everything leaks from this place," predicted Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), one of Gaetz's harshest critics in the House GOP, who noted the deep animosity many of Gaetz's colleagues feel toward him.

— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

ps:It shouldn't have to be a plot, this man is not an appropriate candidate as a Attorney General let alone the AG of the USA!!!

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💣 Manchin's last reversal

Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) is open to voting for Democratic judicial nominees even without GOP support.

• Manchin told us this afternoon "we're in different times right now" when asked about his previous pledge to only support nominees who can get one GOP vote.

Why it matters: With Republicans taking the Senate and White House in 2025, this is the last call for Schumer on judges for at least four years.

• Schumer told Senate Democrats in a private lunch today he's planning to move on more judges and told his caucus to prepare to be in town for long weeks, sources familiar with the meeting said.

Between the lines: For Manchin, it's the latest reversal in a Senate career defined by them.

• He killed Biden's Build Back Better plan before reviving it. He toyed with running for president until vowing he wouldn't. Then he considered it again.

The bottom line: Senate Democrats confirmed three federal judges this week, bringing their total under the Biden administration to 215.

• Trump's record was 234 confirmations.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

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🙈 Johnson burying Gaetz report

House Speaker Mike Johnson is publicly calling on the House Ethics Committee to suppress a potentially damaging report on Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

Why it matters: This is a big flip-flop from Johnson's previous stance — just two days ago! — that he doesn't wade into Ethics Committee matters.

• "The Speaker of the House is not involved in that — can't be involved in that," he said Wednesday.
• It's a potential gift to President-elect Trump.

Johnson said today that making the report public would set a "terrible precedent."

• "I'm going to strongly request that the Ethics Committee not issue the report because that is not the way we do things in the House," Johnson told reporters in the hallway today, as first reported on X by Politico.
• "The rules of the House have always been that a former member is beyond the jurisdiction of the Ethics Committee," Johnson said.
• Gaetz resigned from the House earlier this week, which would usually end an Ethics Committee probe. Trump plans to nominate him for attorney general.

"I defer at this moment to whatever course they decide to take. And I hope they take a course that is bipartisan," Jeffries said today about the Ethics Committee.

• Lawmakers are looking into whether an individual member can force a vote of the full House on releasing it.

Zoom in: In June, the panel officially confirmed its probe into Gaetz had picked up where the Justice Department left off in some of its investigations into sexual misconduct, illicit drug use and other allegations.

• Gaetz has denied wrongdoing.

— Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender

ps:Of course he is!!

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House elections produced a stalemate. Can Republicans figure out how to work with a thin majority?

After one of the most chaotic and least productive U.S. House sessions in modern history, voters made a surprising choice — they overwhelmingly stuck with the status quo. Republicans will hold onto a thin majority in the House. While the chamber’s exact partisan divide is still coming into focus, the results of 435 House races produced hardly any change to the makeup of the chamber. Read more.   What to know about the congressional push to expand some Social Security benefits WASHINGTON (AP) — The House has passed legislation that would provide full Social Security benefits to millions of people, pushing it one step closer to becoming law. https://apnews.com/article/congress-social-security-benefits-expanded-bbf18277e11ba5dba30f948c84b8d6bf?

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House GOP Moves to Ram Through Bill That Gives Trump Unilateral Power to Kill Nonprofits

A controversial “nonprofit killer” bill is back on track after it was blocked earlier this week.

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/15/nonprofits-trump-bill-gop-republicans/?

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🎯 Trans lawmaker targeted

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) set off a firestorm on Capitol Hill today with a bill aimed at restricting transgender Rep.-elect Sarah McBride's (D-Del.) access to the women's bathroom.

Why it matters: The measure is not being immediately dismissed by Republican leadership, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) telling Axios, "We're going to talk about that. We're working on the issue."

• When asked about the bill, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told Axios: "Haven't seen it."
• "This is not just bigotry, this is just plain bullying," said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Mace told reporters tonight: "Sarah McBride doesn't get a say in this. If you're a biological man, you shouldn't be in women's restrooms."

• In a statement, McBride said that every day "Americans go to work with people who have life journeys different than their own and engage with them respectfully. I hope members of Congress can muster that same kindness." 

— Andrew Solender

📺 Dems' 11th-hour challenger

A rising House Democratic star's last-minute effort to take down one of her party's senior leaders is running into a brick wall.

Why it matters: Jeffries' inner circle is on track to stay basically intact.

• The race between Reps. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) for the chairmanship of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee is one of House Democrats' only contested leadership races.
• Dingell, the 70-year-old incumbent DPCC chair, has served in Congress since 2015 and is the widow of congressional icon John Dingell.
• Crockett, 43, is going into her second term and has become known as a fierce political combatant of Republicans and an MSNBC regular.

What we're hearing: Lawmakers from across the Democratic caucus told Axios that Dingell is seen as the clear favorite going into the election tomorrow morning.

• While Crockett is admired for her communication skills, she got into the race last week, while Dingell has spent months building support.
• Many Democrats noted Crockett is known in the caucus primarily for her TV appearances. "The outward-facing stuff doesn't always pay off," said one senior House Democrat.

The bottom line: "When I was approached by Rep. Crockett and asked for my support, I told her [she's] everything I want in a leader, however … she waited kind of late," said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.).

• "I made a commitment to Dingell," Cleaver said.

— Andrew Solender

 

Bathroom bans

A House Republican is pushing to ban transgender women from women's restrooms at the US Capitol, two weeks after history was made with the election of America's first out transgender person to Congress. South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace told reporters on Monday that Democratic Rep.-elect Sarah McBride "does not belong in women's spaces, women's bathrooms, locker rooms, changing rooms, period, full stop." Later Monday, McBride shared an apparent response on X calling for kindness and respect. Similar bans targeting trans people using bathrooms associated with their gender identities, particularly in schools, have sparked controversy in recent years — with supporters arguing that the measures protect students while critics say that they are dehumanizing and unnecessary. 

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👀 Scoop ... Schumer's '26 favorite

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to name Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) as the next DSCC chair, we have learned.

• We scooped in September that Gillibrand was interested in the gig.

Why it matters: If picked, Gillibrand will be tasked in 2026 with snagging four Senate pickups to take down the GOP trifecta.

• Publicly, Schumer isn't ready to commit to Gillibrand, but sources tell us the job is heading her way.

🌎 Democrats will have pickup opportunities in Maine and North Carolina.

• But after that, Gillibrand will have to go on offense in redder states like Texas.
• It's a more friendly map than 2024, where Democrats were playing defense and lost in Trump's states like Montana and Ohio.
• "I have not made a decision about DSCC yet. I have worked with Sen. Gillibrand for a long time and I know she would be a strong choice," Schumer told us in a statement today.

Between the lines: Schumer's search for his next DSCC chair included quietly reaching out to senators who are up for reelection in 2026, asking them who they think is best to run the group.

• No other public candidates emerged.
• Gillibrand leaned on her fundraising bona fides, including a campaign to help House Democrats win toss-up seats in New York. Democrats flipped three of those seats this month.

The bottom line: The DSCC spot is a nod of confidence from Schumer, who also once held the position and even as leader closely follows his members' campaigns.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

🚨 John vs. Chuck

Incoming GOP leader John Thune personally presented a plan for an aggressive defense against President Biden's judicial nominees during a regular leadership meeting last night, sources familiar told us.

Why it matters: This is Thune's first showdown with Schumer and is sure to please some conservatives whose support he needed to become leader.

• President-elect Trump is egging on the fight, demanding Republicans prevent Schumer from confirming more judges.
• The Senate floor stayed open past midnight as Republicans forced procedural votes to drag out the confirmation process.
• Republicans are mad at Schumer for prioritizing judges over other must-pass legislation like the Farm Bill, defense authorization and appropriations.

🚪 Behind closed doors, Republican vs. Republican frustrations bubbled over today after missed votes that helped Schumer move forward on the nominations.

• Vice President-elect Vance (R-Ohio), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Mike Braun (R-Ind.) were specifically called out, sources in the room told us.
• Vance defended himself in a since-deleted post on X by saying even if he had shown up to vote last night, it wouldn't have changed the outcome.

🔥 Zoom out: Look for Schumer to consider repaying the favor next year when it's time to confirm Trump's nominees.

— Stef Kight, Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

💰 Hot gavel: House Financial Services

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is indicating to allies that Rep. Andy Barr (Ky.) is his pick to serve as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, sources familiar with the matter tell us.

Why it matters: Scalise's support gives Barr a clear advantage to win one of the most coveted committee gavels in the next Congress.

• The chair will help set the financial services agenda for Trump's second presidency and handle legislation on everything from cryptocurrency to banking and the pot industry.
• Current Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) is leaving Congress at the end of the year.
• Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) are also interested in the position.

The bottom line: The GOP's Steering Committee is expected to finalize its makeup tomorrow, with plans to meet after the Thanksgiving break to determine committee chairs.

• Speaker Mike Johnson has the most votes on the steering committee, and Republican aides and lawmakers think he's essentially neutral.

Read their elevator pitches

— Juliegrace Brufke and Hans Nichols

♠️ Tomorrow's wild cards

Chart: Axios Visuals Just one of the five Republicans shown above would need to break from their party — and Johnson's public pleas — to release the House Ethics Committee report on Rep. Matt Gaetz. Even if none of them do, Congress expects the report on Trump's choice for attorney general to leak either way. In non-Ethics Committee news, Johnson is being pressured to restrict Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-Del.), a transgender woman, from using women's bathrooms at the Capitol. In a closed-door meeting, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said she would get into a "physical altercation" if McBride tried to use the women's restroom, according to two House Republicans present for her remarks. — Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

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Mike Johnson institutes transgender bathroom ban for U.S. House

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Wednesday he is banning transgender individuals from accessing bathrooms on the House side of the Capitol complex that correspond to their gender identity.

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/20/mike-johnson-trans-women-capitol-bathrooms?

🚨 Scoop ... Johnson's recess surprise

Some House Republicans are prepared to block President-elect Trump from using a recess appointment on attorney general nominee Matt Gaetz.

Why it matters: In the case of recess appointments, the House can use a procedural trick to block a president from bypassing the Senate.

• However, several House Republicans would vote against any motion to go into recess, we have learned, which would thwart Trump's plan to circumvent the Senate's "advice and consent" role.

Zoom in: Trump is convinced he has the cooperation of Speaker Mike Johnson, but Johnson can only afford to lose two or three lawmakers on a vote to go into recess.

• If Johnson lacks a majority, Trump will be denied his pretext to force Congress to adjourn.

What they're saying: Some House Republicans have deep reservations about recessing the House just to give Trump the power to use recess appointments.

• "I've already said we shouldn't be going into recess," said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.).
• "It will be something that I'd discuss with leadership first before being public," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios. "I don't want to say either way out of respect to the Speaker. I owe him to talk to him first."

Zoom out: Days after the election, Trump demanded that the candidates to be Senate majority leader accept his power to use recess appointments.

• All of the leading candidates, including eventual winner Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), agreed with Trump in principle.
• In practice, there are doubts about whether the Senate would agree to go into recess if they know the only purpose would be to install nominees who are shy of the 50 votes needed for confirmation.
• Many Senate Republicans are privately indicating Gaetz doesn't have the votes.

Reality check: Senate Democrats are outraged by the prospect of recess appointments, but recent Democratic presidents have also used it when it met their needs.

• Former President Obama made 32 recess appointments and was rebuked by the Supreme Court for using it when Congress was only out for three days. The Senate needs to be out for 10 days, the court ruled.

The bottom line: For Trump's strategy to work, he needs to have the House and Senate in "disagreement" over adjourning, according to Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution.

• If both the House and Senate agree to stay in session, Trump loses the constitutional pretext for a recess appointment.
• That gives the power to deny Trump to pack his Cabinet to a handful of House Republicans, if all Democrats are also opposed.

— Hans Nichols and Andrew Solender

🚻 Toilet cops

Neither of the House members who oversee the administration of the lower chamber have a clear answer on how Mike Johnson's new transgender bathroom ban will be enforced.

Why it matters: Enforceability has been a point of tension for years over state laws on bathroom access. Now Johnson is bringing that fight to Congress' doorstep.

• Johnson told reporters today that "like all policies, it's enforceable" but did not offer any specifics.
• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who first raised the issue this week in an effort to target transgender Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-Del.), has suggested having the House sergeant-at-arms enforce the ban.

What they're saying: "I think the speaker's statement speaks for itself," House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) told us when asked about enforcement.

• Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Steil's Democratic counterpart, said he hasn't seen the language of the ban and that it's "not clear exactly who's being banned."
• "I have no idea how it's going to be" enforced, Morelle added, jokingly suggesting Mace and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) be appointed as "bathroom monitors."
• One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, suggested the ban would have to be "socially enforced," with people in bathrooms individually reporting violations.

Between the lines: In the case of McBride, who will be the first openly transgender member of Congress, it's likely a moot point.

• "I'm not here to fight about the bathrooms. ... Like all members, I will follow the rules as outlined by Speaker Johnson, even if I disagree with them," she said in a statement today.
• The ban, which affects the House side of the Hill's office buildings as well, could still be an issue for transgender staff members and potentially even visitors.

— Andrew Solender

🌊 Jarring leaks

One heck of a leak ripped straight into view immediately after the House Ethics Committee deadlocked this afternoon on the Gaetz report.

• 🧨 The New York Times published a redacted chart (see it here) it says traces a web of thousands of dollars in payments to women who said they had sex with Gaetz for money, according to testimony to investigators.
• The chart's title: "VENMO TRANSACTIONS BETWEEN ALL INDIVIDUALS AS OF 09/14/20".

Why it matters: Johnson won his initial fight to stop the report from going public. But now he'll deal with the fallout.

• "This purposeful leaking of classified investigative materials is the sort of politicized D.O.J. weaponization that Matt Gaetz will end," Trump communications director Steven Cheung told the Times.
• The Venmo payments between 2017 and 2019 were reported last night by ABC News.

The AG-nominee told reporters he's focused on his confirmation, not the probe.

• Gaetz has denied all wrongdoing in the inquiry.

— Justin Green

Leaderboard: Social juice

Data: Axios research; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

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GOP widens trans fight

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

The House GOP's decision to bar Congress' first-ever transgender member from women's bathrooms spotlights a national trend: Republicans see targeting trans rights as a political winner, Axios' Dave Lawler and Erica Pandey write. Why it matters: Republicans are treating their victory as a mandate to further restrict trans people from accessing bathrooms, youth sports and gender-affirming care, citing one of President-elect Trump's closing ads: "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you." 👉 Democrats, paralyzed by post-election finger-pointing, have been blindsided by the apparent potency of Republicans' anti-trans fear-mongering. The trans community — already a historically marginalized population — has been left wondering who exactly is standing with them. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced yesterday that transgender people are banned from House bathrooms that correspond to their gender identity. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) had introduced a bill to that effect, and made clear she was targeting her soon-to-be House colleague, Sarah McBride (D-Del.). 🔭 Zoom out: This goes far beyond Washington. There was a huge spike in anti-trans legislation at the state and federal level last year, and a record 665 such bills have been introduced this year, per the Trans Legislation Tracker. Republicans introduced 32 anti-trans bills just on the first day of the pre-filing period ahead of Texas' 2025 legislative sessions, journalist Erin Reed reports. The other side: While Democrats were appalled by Mace's bill, they're divided over how to handle the broader issue. Keep reading.

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Special election will pick Matt Gaetz replacement, not Ron DeSantis | Fact check

The claim: Matt Gaetz’s resignation allows DeSantis to appoint someone to his seat

“Just in: Matt Gaetz has resigned from Congress effective immediately so that a special election will take place to fill his seat,” reads the text on the image, which is a screenshot of a post on X, formerly Twitter. “This will give Ron DeSantis the ability to appoint someone to the seat by the January 3 deadline.”

Our rating: False

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/20/desantis-matt-gaetz-replacement-fact-check/76427194007/?

Gaetz report

Republicans on the House Ethics Committee voted not to release the results of their investigation into president-elect Donald Trump's attorney general pick, Matt Gaetz, despite growing calls to make the findings public ahead of his confirmation hearing. Pressure has grown from top lawmakers who want to see an ethics report into Gaetz's past conduct following allegations about a sexual relationship with a minor that he has denied. This comes after two women testified before the committee and said that they were paid for "sexual favors" by the ex-congressman. The New York Times has obtained a document showing payments from Gaetz to women. Meanwhile, Trump's defense secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, is also at the center of sexual misconduct allegations. A police report obtained by CNN reveals new details about what happened between Hegseth and a woman in a hotel incident.

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Speaker Johnson declares support for banning Sarah McBride’s access to women’s restrooms

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Speaker Mike Johnson declared Wednesday that lawmakers and staff will have to use the restroom corresponding with their biological sex, a statement directed at Sarah McBride, the first transgender person to be elected to Congress, months before she is set to arrive on Capitol Hill.

https://apnews.com/article/sarah-mcbride-speaker-johnson-transgender-bathroom-f3943e1b3b2dc9c8d62d2ba6660aaf91?

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GOP cheers Gaetz's exit

Matt Gaetz and Vice President-elect JD Vance leave the Capitol yesterday after meetings with senators. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Congressional Republicans raised a collective cheer today as Matt Gaetz withdrew his nomination for attorney general. "This is the only decent thing Matt Gaetz has ever done," one House Republican told Axios. "There was no path for him, and he knew that," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told Axios. "I am surprised it happened this quick. But ... it was going to happen." 👊 Gaetz's decision spares the House from a brutal fight over an Ethics Committee report about him, and the Senate from an even bloodier battle over his nomination. President-elect Trump had been personally lobbying senators this week to support Gaetz. But the drumbeat surrounding allegations that Gaetz had sex with a minor has only gotten louder since his nomination. After meetings on Capitol Hill yesterday, Gaetz concluded that at least four Republican senators — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and John Curtis, the newly elected senator from Utah — were "implacably opposed to his nomination," The New York Times reports. Any nominee can lose just three votes to get confirmed. Go deeper.

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🔥 House Dems revolt

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios The return of President-elect Trump is motivating some of Hakeem Jeffries' House Democrats to shove aside older colleagues for top committee spots. Why it matters: The party can't manage another two years under gerontocracy, many Democrats tell us, even if challenging committee leaders is frowned on. "There is growing anxiousness among younger members to get their chance," one senior House Democrat told us. "Some of them need to be put out to pasture," a ranking House Democrat told us about their party's committee leaders. 🥊 The challengers aren't young either, but they're going after Democratic committee leadership members in their late 70s. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), 60, is challenging Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), 76, as ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva announced a cancer diagnosis in April and said he won't seek reelection. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), 61, is considering a challenge to Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), 77, as the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee. Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), 72, is trying to unseat Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), 79, as ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee. Scott's health has long been a concern and he's been absent the last two weeks. 👀 What they're saying: "I think the question we should all be asking ourselves is, 'Do we have people who are ready to roll up their sleeves and fight like hell?'" Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) told us. "In many of those instances you have the people already, and in others some people may not feel they do," she added. The bottom line: Some Democrats see this as a moment to strike on House GOP-style term limits for committee leaders. "We may be seeing some shift in the norm of whether or not that gets you in hot water," said Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), a champion of term limits. Foster said Dems recognized the "tremendous boost when Kamala Harris took over for Joe Biden" as the Democratic presidential nominee. — Andrew Solender

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⚡️ Next McConnell gigs

McConnell, the outgoing Senate GOP leader, will chair the Senate Rules Committee and the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, he said today. Collins will chair the full Appropriations Committee. As subcommittee chair, McConnell will play a critical role in decisions around defense spending. He's repeatedly raised alarms about the U.S. military being underfunded. "America's national security interests face the gravest array of threats since the Second World War," McConnell said in a statement today. Between the lines: McConnell is using his seniority to leapfrog Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who had been in line to chair Rules. — Stef Kight   🎯 Schumer's late-night deal A late-night deal with Republicans has kept outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on track to break McConnell's record for confirming judges. Schumer axed four judicial nominees in exchange for a path to passage for over a dozen judges through the end of the year. Those four didn't have the votes either way, his office told us. Why it matters: Republicans pulled Schumer to the negotiating table after dragging out judicial confirmation votes past midnight. Senate Democrats have confirmed 221 judges under the Biden administration — just 13 short of the GOP record from Trump 1.0. — Stephen Neukam

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Matt Gaetz’s Enemies Get Warning: He Might Not Be Dead Yet

Matt Gaetz has already been replaced as the attorney general nominee after he was doomed Thursday by his alleged sexcapades—which he denies. But he has other pathways to reclaim his perch as agent provocateur of GOP politics.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/matt-gaetzs-enemies-get-warning-he-might-not-be-dead-yet/?

ps:Gaetz's Enemies?? He's the one that burned all those bridges!!

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U.S. House Dem quartet calls for Biden to spare lives of federal death row inmates

WASHINGTON — House Democrats and anti-death penalty advocates pressed Wednesday for President Joe Biden to save the lives of federal death row inmates before his term expires in January.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/11/21/dc/u-s-house-dem-quartet-calls-for-biden-to-spare-lives-of-federal-death-row-inmates/?

Matt Gaetz says he’s not returning to Congress next year

Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who withdrew from consideration as President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general on Thursday, said Friday he will not be returning to Congress next year.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/22/politics/gaetz-not-rejoining-congress/index.html?

ps:Of course he wont, what do you think would happen if he does??

Johnson's hell

Photo illustration: Maura Losch/Axios. Photo: Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images House Democrats are locked in to put maximum pressure next year on Speaker Mike Johnson's agonizingly small House majority. Why it matters: They'd need just a few complications on the GOP side to tank Johnson's efforts to pass President-elect Trump's sweeping agenda, fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. In 2017, House Republicans had a 20-plus-seat buffer for Trump's first term. Come January, they may have a one- or two-seat majority until they can fill seats vacated by Trump appointees. Zoom in: On any GOP-only legislation, there is "going to be enormous pressure" on Republican centrists to break away, said Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.). Morelle pointed to Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), predicting some GOP bills will be "problematic for him" as he mulls a run for New York governor. "t can stop a lot of bad things from happening," Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) said of flipping GOP members. "It's hard, but it can be done." "The tables have kind of been reversed to where the House Freedom Caucus will just do whatever President Trump says and the people in the middle who are in tougher districts won't," a House Republican told us. Between the lines: Democrats may face hiccups on their own side — with a high risk of lawmakers in districts Trump won defecting on key votes. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), a co-chair of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, told us Democratic leadership can only "count on me to do what I think is best for Maine and the country." Golden hinted he could end up supporting Trump's tariff proposals, pointing to his own bill to institute a universal 10% tariff. Some Republicans argued Trump will be a focal point around which GOP lawmakers can rally in a way they couldn't in the last two years. "If Trump's going to sign [a bill], you immediately have a momentum that wasn't there before," said one senior House Republican. The bottom line: Several House Democrats told us that dutifully attending major votes will be paramount. "Given the narrow margins, there's going to be a real emphasis on making sure people are here," said Morelle. "To vote against shi**y legislation ... if I get struck by lightning, I'm going to drag myself here," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), in a statement to us, said showing up to votes is "what House Democrats do every day." — Andrew Solender House absentees   Data: Quorum; Chart: Axios Visuals The Hill Leaders Powerboard above shows why it's so hard for either party to command 100% attendance at votes. Why it matters: Unexpected stuff happens to lawmakers too. They get sick ... have kids ... suffer family health issues ... lose primaries ... get caught up campaigning ... join administrations ... and sometimes they die in office. The bottom line: It's been a long time since absences mattered so much.

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Matt Gaetz says he won't return to Congress next year

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) confirmed to Axios that he will not seek to take his seat in the 119th Congress after withdrawing his nomination to be President-elect Trump's attorney general. https://www.axios.com/2024/11/22/matt-gaetz-return-congress-attorney-general?

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The House Just Blessed Trump’s Authoritarian Playbook by Passing Nonprofit-Killer Bill

Democratic support for the bill dwindled as critics warned it would let Donald Trump crack down on political foes.

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/21/gop-house-trump-nonprofit-authoritarian/?

Congress Could Protect Journalists From Surveillance. Trump Is Lobbying to Stop Them.

The PRESS Act, a federal reporter shield bill, already passed the House unanimously. Trump wants it dead.

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/21/press-act-trump-press-freedom/?