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️47's lightning pace
 
A bar chart that displays confirmed cabinet-level positions for U.S. presidents as of Feb. 18. Obama had 17 confirmations in 2009, Trump had 14 in 2017, Biden had 7 in 2021, and Trump again had 17 in 2025. Notably, Biden
Data: Senate majority leader's office; Chart: Axios Visuals

Thune handed Trump his 17th Cabinet-level confirmation tonight — tying President Obama's numbers at the same point of his first term.

Why it matters: From the beginning, Thune has promised to move quickly to confirm Trump officials, including threatening Friday and weekend votes. He's followed through.

  • The Senate voted to confirm Howard Lutnick to be secretary of Commerce tonight.
  • Obama in 2009 also had 17 confirmed Cabinet members in place at this point in his presidency, although one was a holdover from the previous administration.
  • Thune and Trump are on track to surpass Obama's number this week.

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— Stef Kight

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🏛️ DOGE revolt grows in GOP
 
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N.Y. Times Upshot says DOGE's claim of $55 billion in savings lacks specific documentation: $16 billion is itemized on a new "Wall of Receipts." But that includes a contract correction from $8 billion to $8 million. Image: DOGE.gov

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told Axios the administration is moving "too fast" on job and spending cuts.

  • The powerful senator warned Elon Musk's team should wait until agency heads are confirmed and take a "more surgical approach." She said some actions "violate restrictions that are in current law" and the team is "making mistakes," referencing the accidental firing of officials working on bird flu.

Why it matters: Collins is among the Republicans on Capitol Hill growing unnerved by the Trump-Musk cuts now hitting their districts and states. Andrew Solender and Stef Kight report in Axios Hill Leaders.

  • A bigger conflict is brewing over whether the administration can bypass Congress on such decisions.

🔭 Zoom out: Republicans have largely applauded the swiftness of DOGE hacking and slashing. But some are quietly fuming that their constitutional role in controlling federal funds is being steamrolled.

  • I think you're going to see a clash when they ... start abolishing [agencies]," a House Republican told Axios. "Say like USAID, right? We authorized that. That's a creature of Congress."

🔬 Zoom in: DOGE is starting to target federal roles that even some of Trump's Republican allies in Congress may deem essential.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told Axios of her state's many federal workers: "We all want efficiencies, there is a way to do it [but] the way these people have been treated has been awful in many cases. Awful."

  • Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios: "Measure twice before cutting. They have had to backtrack multiple times."

🕶️ What we're watching: With Republicans' razor-thin House majority, Trump will need to keep nearly every GOP lawmaker on board to pass his massive budget reconciliation bill later this year.

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U.S. Senate to tackle budget resolution this week in marathon session

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate will debate a budget resolution this week that Republicans in that chamber hope will pave the way for Congress to approve hundreds of billions of dollars in defense and border security funding later this year in a separate bill.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/02/18/repub/u-s-senate-to-tackle-budget-resolution-this-week-in-marathon-session/?

U.S. senators criticize staffing cuts in health care program for Sept. 11 responders

WASHINGTON — Two U.S. senators are raising questions about how staffing cuts to the World Trade Center Health Program will affect 9/11 first responders, survivors and residents affected by the terrorist attacks who now live throughout the country.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/02/18/repub/u-s-senators-criticize-staffing-cuts-in-health-care-program-for-sept-11-responders/?

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U.S. Senate Dems issue warning on ‘massive cuts’ to Medicaid predicted in GOP budget

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Democrats on Wednesday urged Americans throughout the country who rely on Medicaid for their or a family member’s health care to call up GOP members of Congress and urge them not to cut benefits.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/02/19/repub/u-s-senate-dems-issue-warning-on-massive-cuts-to-medicaid-predicted-in-gop-budget/?

This Is the Way to Stop Elon Musk

Senate Democrats have the power to block federal contracts to Tesla and SpaceX. It’s the path to pushing Musk out of politics.

https://theintercept.com/2025/02/17/elon-musk-trump-government-tesla-spacex/?

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⚔️ Thune's Plan B

Don't prewrite the obituaries for the Senate's budget plan just yet.

  • At a private lunch today for Senate Republicans, Vice President Vance gave the green light for the Senate to keep going, even after Trump endorsed House Speaker Mike Johnson's "one, big beautiful bill."
  • Vance joked early in the lunch that he was sure senators had already leaked to Axios (!) what he had just said, multiple sources told us.

The big picture: Johnson has a math problem that even Trump's strong support can't instantly fix.

  • House conservatives want deep, deep cuts. $1.5 trillion isn't enough for some of them, who want at least $2 trillion.
  • House moderates are threatening to tank any deal that slashes too much. Trimming even $1.5 trillion could force cutting programs like Medicaid and SNAP.

Zoom in: Vance expressed support for the Senate's plan of first tackling border and military spending, sources told us.

  • But Vance told senators Trump still prefers Johnson's budget reconciliation plan, which would include Trump's many tax promises, including extending the 2017 tax cuts, no tax on tips and raising SALT caps.
  • Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) raised the issue of Medicaid cuts during lunch — and received applause after telling Vance such cuts should be on the table, sources in the room told us.
  • Trump has repeatedly said Medicaid and Social Security will not be touched. But it's difficult to reach the kind of spending cuts that conservatives would like to see without looking at Medicaid.

— Stef Kight

Senate birthright fight

Senate Democrats are targeting Trump's order to end birthright citizenship by trying to cut off the funding to enforce it.

  • Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) will lead a group of Democrats in introducing the Born in the USA Act this week, which would prevent any government funds from being used to enforce Trump's birthright citizenship order.

Why it matters: The bill is a notable opening shot from Rosen and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who represent a purple state with a hefty Latino population. Rosen and Trump both won the state in 2024.

  • Trump's directive to end birthright citizenship has been halted by a number of courts while battles over its constitutionality continue. The Democrats are framing the move as patently illegal.

The big picture: Just 36% of U.S. adults support Trump's move to end birthright citizenship, according to polling from Reuters/Ipsos.

  • "The U.S. Constitution is abundantly clear that if you are born in the United States, then you are a citizen," Rosen said in a statement to us.

— Stephen Neukam

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💣 Senate trench war

For Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, tonight is about proving Democrats have a path — and the guts — to get out of the political wilderness.

Why it matters: Schumer sees the budget "vote-a-rama" as his shot to convince voters that President Trump's GOP serves billionaires, not the working-class people who make up the new MAGA. We scooped his thinking earlier this week.

  • Democrats are expected to offer about 40 amendments for consideration.
  • The amendments are designed to pin Republicans between what's good for reelection and what could infuriate Trump.

🔑 Schumer's two key targets are Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who each face reelection in 2026.

  • As Schumer told us this week: "In 2026, these amendments are going to play a valuable role."

🎉 Zoom in: The festivities won't end until each side votes the other to exhaustion.

  • Amendments are unlimited and the median age of senators is 65, per Pew Research Center.
  • Among the potential amendments: Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) plan to put GOP senators on the record on Trump's IVF promises, as we scooped tonight.

The bottom line: For Senate Majority Leader John Thune, tonight is much more straightforward.

  1. Endure the vote-a-rama and pass the resolution.
  2. Plant the Senate's flag as Trump's most viable path to quickly fund his mass deportations and border security.
  3. Take back the upper hand from Speaker Mike Johnson, who has a daunting path next week to get his one big bill through the House.

— Stephen Neukam

🔮 McConnell succession race

Mitch McConnell's retirement announcement has triggered a three-way primary that's expected to cost close to $100 million — and trash the longest-serving Senate leader on his way out the door.

Why it matters: It's Kentucky's first vacant Senate seat in 15 years. It's also the first since Trumpism washed over the party.

  • All three candidates will attempt to run in the MAGA lane — and bump each other out of it.
  • Expect a slugfest but don't look for the candidates to fight for McConnell's endorsement.

Driving the news: Businessman Nate Morris is already making his opposition to McConnell the cornerstone of his campaign.

  • "We cannot have a Mitch McConnell puppet filling his seat," he said from CPAC today. Donald Trump Jr. has been responding positively to his tweets.
  • Daniel Cameron, a former McConnell staffer and former Kentucky attorney general, launched his campaign today. He's likely to tout he was endorsed by Trump three times in previous runs.
  • Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), formerly a McConnell intern, also released a statement saying he's "considering running for Senate" and is "encouraged by the outpouring of support and my family and I will be making a decision about our future soon."

Zoom in: House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) won't be running but is looking at the governor's race in 2027.

  • Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, seen as one of the only Democrats who could seriously contest the seat, is also a no.

The bottom line: It's going to be a nasty and spendy primary. But Republicans are confident they'll hold onto the seat.

— Andrew Solender, Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

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🏛️ Senate's all-nighter

🏛️ Breaking: At 4:45 a.m., after an all-night "vote-a-rama," the Senate voted 52-48 to pass a $340 billion budget framework — a step toward unleashing money for President Trump's agenda, including border security.

  • All Dems voted against. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the lone GOP "nay."

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer took to the floor after the parliamentary marathon and said Republicans "were forced to go on record and defend their plans to cut taxes for Donald Trump's billionaire friends."

  • "What happened tonight was only the beginning," Schumer added. "This debate is gonna go on for weeks, and maybe months. Democrats will be ready to come back and do this over and over again."

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🐎 Trump hobbles Johnson

This is not the Trump quote Speaker Johnson wanted to see the Friday before his "one big, beautiful bill" hits the House floor.

  • "You could do three. You could do 10," Trump told Fox News radio host Brian Kilmeade, referencing the Senate resolution that advanced this AM. "As long as we get them all added up and it's the same thing."

Why it matters: Johnson's central argument — which Trump seemed to adopt earlier this week — is the House can only pass one reconciliation bill, not three.

  • Certainly not 10.

 

Top swing voter

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), up for reelection next year, voted for eight Democratic amendments in the overnight "vote-a-rama."

Between the lines: Four of the eight mentioned Medicaid.

  1. "Prevent unwarranted tax cuts for the ultra-rich."
  2. "Stop tax cuts for the ultra-rich while families struggle to put food on the table."
  3. Prevent tax cuts for the wealthy if a single dollar of Medicaid funding is cut."
  4. "Protecting access to maternal and pediatric health care through Medicaid."
  5. "Block legislation that would take away health care from seniors, including those receiving care in nursing homes, through cuts to the Medicaid program."
  6. "Create a point of order against legislation that would reduce Medicare and Medicaid benefits for Americans."
  7. "Create a point of order against legislation that would cut funding from the school lunch or school breakfast programs."
  8. "Protecting access to fertility services, and eliminating barriers for families in need of high-quality, affordable fertility services by expanding nationwide coverage for in vitro fertilization."

— Stephen Neukam

💰 Johnson's money men

With a crucial floor vote next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson is surveying his members about counting the cost of extending President Trump's tax cuts at zero, we have learned.

Why it matters: Trump wants his 2017 tax cuts made permanent. The math gets easier on "one big, beautiful bill" if Johnson embraces the "current policy" approach favored by his House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) — as well as the Senate.

  • House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) — who has been skeptical — is hinting to colleagues he might also be supportive of using current policy, with some key caveats, people familiar with the matter tell us.

⏎ That'd be a huge shift: The budget resolution the House will consider on Tuesday is locked into a "current law" framework. That would mean the new costs for the expiring tax cuts would need to be factored in.

  • Arrington has also indicated he is open to making Trump's tax cuts permanent, as long as the House approves at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.

Between the lines: Arrington and Smith have butted heads throughout the entire budget process. Few in the conference would call them close allies.

  • But if they can be on the same page on using a current policy score, the prospect of passing Trump's "one big, beautiful bill" through the House becomes much easier.

The bottom line: The House and Senate will eventually have to resolve their one bill versus two bills debate. A much harder question is whether to make the tax cuts permanent. (More below).

— Hans Nichols

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🔐 The trickiest question
 

The House budget resolution uses a "current law" baseline, which means the cost of Trump's tax cuts is around $4.5 trillion over 10 years.

  • But under the Senate's preferred approach, Trump's Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TJCA) should be deemed "current policy," the Congressional Budget Office would not have to count the cost of extending them.
  • That puts their effective price tag at zero. It also makes it much easier to make them permanent, a key priority for Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and the White House.

Zoom in: There's an open (and important) question hanging over the entire current policy versus current law debate: Will the Senate parliamentarian go along with Crapo's preferred accounting method?

  • House lawmakers will want some sort of assurance the Senate parliamentarian will allow it.
  • That kind of ruling can only happen if the Senate budget resolution includes a tax provision, which it currently doesn't.

The bottom line: If the Senate is going to test its current policy theory — and get the parliamentarian's approval — it will need to jump to the House's single bill approach.

🔌 Powerboard: The subcommittee chairs
 
A headshots chart displays the Republican chairs and Democratic ranking members of the House Ways and Means subcommittees. Each subcommittee features one Republican and one Democrat, with notable members including Mike Kelly and Mike Thompson for Tax. The chart visually represents party affiliation through color coding.
Chart: Axios Visuals

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📦 Johnson boxed in

The list of no's is growing for House Speaker Mike Johnson, and time isn't on his side.

Why it matters: Flipping votes on a budget resolution isn't impossible, but it could force Johnson to delay bringing it to the floor.

  • That would further undermine the House's effort to get "one big, beautiful bill" over to the Senate by the end of April.
  • 💥 Two current public "no" votes, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), say the spending cuts aren't enough.
  • 🙉 At least one other Republican is a private "no" vote, Burchett told reporters tonight.

Johnson and his leadership team are projecting public confidence they will be able to pass the resolution tomorrow evening.

  • "There's a couple of folks who just have lingering questions," Johnson told reporters today, "but I think all those questions can be answered and we'll be able to move forward."
  • "We'll see," Johnson told reporters when asked if the vote is still on for tomorrow night. "But it'll happen this week."

🚨Johnson says he won't negotiate ahead of a vote, including with moderates who are concerned by Medicaid cuts.

  • "Everybody needs to understand that the resolution is merely the starting point for the process," Johnson said today, per Politico.

The big picture: Johnson sided with his most conservative lawmakers in building this budget package. Now they're threatening to leave him hanging.

  • "If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better," Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) posted on X.

Zoom in: Johnson is trying to fuse together 218 votes with the unusual combination of a huge debt limit increase, deep spending cuts and Trump's wish list on tax cuts.

  • Johnson has freaked out his moderates with the depth of the spending cut targets, which will be hard to hit without cuts to Medicaid and nutrition programs.
  • That's for naught if conservatives tank the bill first.

Zoom out: Some senior Republicans remained optimistic that the current framework — which will also add up to $4.5 trillion in tax breaks if Congress cuts $2 trillion in spending — will eventually find enough votes for passage.

  • "It's going to reduce the debt to GDP ratio," Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told reporters. "It's important to me and important to our president."
  • "I don't expect it to change," he said. "I feel like we landed at a really good place."
  • "We're going to be fine," Arrington told us.

— Hans Nichols

🚔 Attendance wars

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is pushing for full attendance this week in case there's a chance the Democrats can tank Johnson's budget bill.

  • "Given the expected closeness of the vote, it's imperative that we are present with maximum attendance," Jeffries told his colleagues today.

Zoom in: Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), 77, was diagnosed with cancer last year and has missed every House vote since the Jan. 3 Speaker election. His office did not respond to a request for comment.

  • Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is recovering from hip surgery, will be present for the vote, said a source familiar with her plans.

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— Andrew Solender

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House GOP pushes ‘big’ budget resolution to passage, a crucial step toward delivering Trump’s agenda

WASHINGTON (AP) — With a push from President Donald Trump, House Republicans sent a GOP budget blueprint to passage Tuesday, a step toward delivering his “big, beautiful bill” with $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and $2 trillion in spending cuts despite a wall of opposition from Democrats and discomfort among Republicans.

https://apnews.com/article/johnson-trump-republicans-budget-vote-tax-cuts-4cb74ca15f6a74a7344355e4507ab9fe?

GOP shaky on big vote

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is once again grappling with right-wing defectors ahead of a key budget vote, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

  • The vote on a budget resolution is the critical first step toward passing the massive fiscal bill that President Trump has put forth — but it's not clear whether it'll pass.

📜 Where it stands: Several GOP lawmakers said they remain opposed to the resolution, which would allow for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase and $2 trillion in spending cuts.

  • "It's insane," Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, a persistent thorn in leadership's side, told the NYT (gift link). "We're going to increase the deficit with this. Why would I vote for that? You can't cut taxes without cutting spending, and they're not really cutting spending."

🔎 What we're watching: Trump has begun making calls urging lawmakers to support the bill, per the NYT, and GOP leaders are pressing members not to stand in the way of Trump's agenda.

  • Yes, but:
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%

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Senate GOP advances Trump's backup budget after grueling all-nighter

The Senate adopted a budget resolution early Friday after an all-night "vote-a-rama" that would provide more than $300 billion dollars for border and defense.

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/21/senate-budget-vote-trump-republicans-border-defense?

House passes GOP budget bill in key step for Trump agenda

The House passed Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) budget bill Tuesday despite a short-lived GOP revolt earlier in the day.

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/26/house-passes-gop-budget-bill-in-key-step-for-trump-agenda?

Begging for Musk's mercy
 
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Republicans are suddenly pressing Elon Musk to project a kinder, friendlier face of DOGE.

  • "We can all agree on removing fraud, waste and abuse. ... Does it also mean that you remove benefits from those that need it? The answer is no," said Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.).

Why it matters: Some Republicans dismissed the burst of anti-DOGE energy as the work of liberal activists. But others remember 2009 and 2017, when backlash to new administrations helped erase House majorities.

  • "When you have a lot of people who are scared and a lot of people who are angry, of course you should take it seriously," said Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), one of several House Republicans who were grilled on DOGE at tense town halls last week.
  • McCormick noted that Musk told Republicans to be more compassionate in 2022.
  • "He's kind of forgotten some of that," McCormick said of Musk. "I want to be his conscience."

Between the lines: "It would be more helpful if some of those DOGE folks showed more sensitivity to the people who are being terminated this way ... who didn't do anything wrong," said one House Republican who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

  • Another House Republican said Musk is "more liked by people in the White House than anyone here because we have to deal with the ramifications of what he says."
  • Speaker Mike Johnson defended the DOGE actions, telling CNN, "There's no playbook for how to do it."

Zoom in: House Republicans vented about DOGE officials' tactics and lack of communication with Congress at their closed-door conference meeting today, according to multiple members in attendance.

  • There was also talk of holding an info session on town hall "best practices," including tips for not getting riled up by provocative activists and giving them a viral moment, a GOP lawmaker told us.

Yes, but: Many Republicans maintained town halls and protests should be taken with a grain of salt, if not altogether discounted, because of liberal groups directing their members to show up in force.

  • Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) told us: "I don't know why you'd want to hold a town hall right now. ... You know the left is going to set some people up in there just to be rabble-rousers."
  • "Let's keep winning. That's it," said Nehls. "Town halls can come later."

— Andrew Solender

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😬 Senate GOP squirms over UN vote

The U.S. vote against a United Nations resolution condemning Russian aggression is becoming another tension point between Trump and Senate Republicans.

Why it matters: Republicans are bracing to have their party's leader challenge or undercut their core assumption about foreign policy. Some still hold out hope for a war-ending deal.

  • "I think we should have voted 'aye'," Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told us. "Clearly, Putin's Russia is the aggressor. And the world has been aware of that for over a decade."
  • It's Wicker's second rebuke of Trump this month, after he called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's comments on Ukraine's territorial borders a "rookie mistake."

Zoom in: The vote was "unfortunate," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

  • "Shameful," said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
  • "Refusing to acknowledge Russia as the undeniable and unprovoked aggressor is more than an unseemly moral equivalency — it reflects a gross misunderstanding of the nature of negotiations and leverage," Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a statement yesterday.

What to watch: Other Republicans — including members of leadership — are choosing their words carefully or avoiding direct answers.

  • Majority Leader John Thune told us: "I don't know what's all behind that. My assumption is it's part of the negotiation right now." He added: "I'm pretty clear about who I think started the war," referring to his past comments on Russia.
  • GOP Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming: "I've been very clear on the aggressors from the beginning." Barrasso did not answer directly about the U.N. vote but said he agrees with Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron about finding a way to end the war and "prevent additional Russian aggression."
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is taking a similar line: "I think Russia is the aggressor. I don't care about the U.N. resolution. I care about how this war ends and when it ends."

— Stef Kight

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🏛️ Stunning 13-minute reversal

With the help of President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) muscled a budget package through the House — a win he claimed will give him momentum to pass "Trump's full America First agenda — not just parts of it."

  • Why it matters: The extraordinary evening was a taste of chaos to come. Johnson's dream of one "big, beautiful bill" will live. But so will the reality of his razor-thin majority, Axios' Hans Nichols and Andrew Solender write.

⏱️ Just before 7:30 p.m. ET, lawmakers began filing out of the House chamber after being told votes were done for the evening. Just 13 minutes later they were streaming back in — the vote was on.

  • Some lawmakers had already been long gone. Several told Axios they were at dinner. At least one was at a Capitol Hill bar.

🔎 Between the lines: Both parties pulled out all the stops to try and ensure their preferred outcome.

🔮 What's next: Remember, this procedural bill was the easy part.

  • Passing the actual bill — which could include deep cuts to Medicaid — will require Republicans of all stripes to subordinate their personal goals for the overall ambitions of the party and their president.
  • House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is salivating at the opportunity to put Republicans on the record on their planned cuts, especially on social safety net programs.

📈 Josh Bolten — CEO of Business Roundtable, which represents 200+ top American CEOs — said in a statement: "The House's vote marks a pivotal moment in Congress's work to protect and boost the economic benefits that tax reform delivered for American businesses, workers and families. ... [W]e urge both chambers to find a path forward on a comprehensive, pro-growth tax package that builds on President Trump's signature 2017 tax reforms."

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Budget blueprint

The House adopted a sweeping budget blueprint Tuesday after Speaker Mike Johnson convinced GOP holdouts to advance President Trump's agenda in a key vote. Republican leaders must now agree on exactly what will make it into Trump's first legislative package. The newly passed House GOP plan calls for sweeping tax cuts, steep spending cuts, a two-year debt limit hike, and new money for border security and energy production. The Senate's plan, however, contains only national security and energy money, while punting on the more contentious items for later. The dayslong saga over the budget blueprint laid bare bitter divisions among Republicans that will make it difficult to pass that package in both chambers.

 

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Democrats blast U.S. House GOP budget, predicting potential cuts to Medicaid

WASHINGTON — Congressional Democrats at a press conference lambasted the U.S. House GOP’s budget resolution Tuesday, expressing concerns over the impact of potential tax cuts for wealthy Americans at the expense of government programs like Medicaid.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/02/25/repub/democrats-blast-u-s-house-gop-budget-predicting-potential-cuts-to-medicaid/?

💪 Johnson solo mission

House Speaker Mike Johnson won a game of brinksmanship with his own party on budget reconciliation. Now he's prepared to do the same with Democrats on government funding, lawmakers and aides tell us.

Why it matters: House Republicans are increasingly confident they can avoid a government shutdown without any Democratic support.

  • "I think it demonstrated we can do things on our own," House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters today.
  • Going alone would be unprecedented but not impossible. The current funding bill runs through March 14.

🙏 Johnson will need strong buy-in from the White House that President Trump will back his approach.

Between the lines: The appropriation process has been complicated by Elon Musk's and DOGE's efforts to cut money that Congress has obligated to departments and agencies.

  • That's caused a Democratic uproar and raised the possibility they won't give Republicans the votes they could need to keep the government open.
  • But Johnson said today Republicans shouldn't expect to get DOGE cuts written into a spending stopgap.
  • The speaker told reporters the "most reasonable" thing is to avoid a shutdown by pursuing a "clean" CR.

Zoom in: House and Senate GOP leaders met with their appropriators this morning to discuss their next steps.

  • Republicans are united, for now, on a single point: they will not give in to Democratic demands to block Musk's cost-cutting efforts.
  • "The Democrats have had completely unreasonable conditions assigned to this," Johnson said. "They want us to limit the power of the executive branch."
  • "That's a no-go," Cole said. "We're not moving."

— Hans Nichols

🎵 GOP tax harmonizing
 

Johnson is moving toward the Senate on two key issues: Making Trump's tax cuts permanent and counting the cost of extending them at zero.

Why it matters: The White House and Senate have been pressing the House to adopt a "current policy baseline" — which means Congress doesn't have to offset the tax cuts' estimated $4.5 trillion price tag.

  • They have made permanence a red line, which is impossible without a current policy approach.

🚨 This afternoon, Johnson appeared to embrace both of the Senate's demands.

  • "The policy makes a lot of sense to me," Johnson told reporters upon returning to Capitol Hill. "Current policy baseline, because it comports with reality."
  • "That's our commitment," Johnson said when asked about permanence.

Zoom in: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles made the case for permanence in a Senate lunch today.

What to watch: The chambers will also have to get on the same page over whether to raise the debt ceiling as part of the reconciliation package, as the current House version calls for.

— Hans Nichols

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Schumer's early guest list

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is privately pushing Democrats to fill their Trump speech guest lists with people affected by federal job cuts and the funding freeze.

  • Why it matters: Schumer is joining House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries in trying to match the PR pop that Trump will get from Tuesday's joint address to Congress.

The guests are expected to include, according to sources familiar ...

  • A child with a genetic spinal condition who is alive because of an NIH program that was recently cut.
  • An Army veteran close to retirement who was fired from Veterans Affairs.
  • A fired USDA employee who worked in rural development.
  • A person who relies on Medicaid.

Between the lines: Schumer's team told Democratic offices it wants their guests to get "influencer engagement" ahead of the speech.

  • Senate Democrats have turned to social media as one of their main frontiers in opposing Trump's agenda.

— Stephen Neukam

🥊 Thune's next wedge vote

Senate Majority Leader John Thune will move tomorrow on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act — with a procedural vote planned for Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The bill, which would restrict transgender women from participating in women's school athletics programs, is a key priority for conservatives and could potentially divide the Democratic caucus.

  • The House passed similar legislation in January with two Democrats — Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, both of Texas — joining Republicans in voting for it.
  • Senate Republicans are unlikely to get the seven Democrats they need to pass the bill — but it could prove a painful vote for a handful of vulnerable Democrats.

Driving the news: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), one of the Senate co-sponsors of the legislation, complained on "The Megyn Kelly Show" podcast early this month that Thune hadn't brought the legislation to the floor.

  • "John Thune told me he's going to get it the floor and he hadn't done it. It's time to put or shut up," he said.
  • Kelly first reported today that Thune had agreed to file cloture on the bill tomorrow. This would set up the first procedural vote likely Monday, which we confirmed.

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

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💣 Johnson's time bomb
 
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Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

Vulnerable House Republicans are pleading with their leaders to be more careful with Medicaid and SNAP ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson's moderates insist they won't support big cuts to those programs that could doom their campaigns.

  • 😬 "It could be trouble," one Republican moderate told us after being granted anonymity to speak candidly about their party's marquee legislation.
  • "We saw what happened in 2018," the lawmaker said. Voter anger over the GOP's legislative efforts during President Trump's first term helped Democrats flip more than 40 House seats.

🔥 But conservatives say the cuts that have spooked moderates aren't nearly deep enough.

  • House Republicans passed the first step Tuesday for their hulking budget resolution, which allows $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, partially offset by spending cuts.
  • The next step is hard: GOP-led committees will now turn instructions to trim spending into line-item cuts that can be voted on and used against them.

🛑 Zoom in: Johnson's moderate and swing-district Republicans told us major cuts to benefits are a red line.

  • "I have told my leadership ... there are scores of Republicans who don't want to go further [on Medicaid] than requiring work for able-bodied adults, getting the illegals off and rooting out waste, fraud and abuse," one Republican told us.
  • "If it goes further than that," they said, "the bill is probably dead."

🔪 Yes, but: Conservatives are equally emphatic that the bill must include substantial enough cuts to Medicaid to offset the increases in spending — creating a seemingly unworkable dilemma for Johnson.

  • Insufficiently deep Medicaid cuts are "probably a nonstarter," said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.).
  • Burlison went as far as to say Republicans "should cut more" than the budget provides for, telling Axios: "I just had people in my office say, 'You didn't cut enough.'"

What's next: Some vulnerable Republicans have distanced themselves from the vote by saying the budget measure is just a conceptual framework that doesn't mandate specific cuts.

  • "Last night's vote was just a procedural step to start federal budget negotiations and does NOT change any current laws," Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr.(R-Pa.) said in a strident statement yesterday.
  • Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) insisted there is "zero mention of cutting Medicaid" in the budget resolution — even as it calls for the Energy and Commerce Committee to seek $880 billion in cuts, some of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.

— Andrew Solender

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💰 Dems grasp for shutdown off-ramp

Senate Democrats are quietly discussing how to avoid a government shutdown by adjusting some of their demands on Trump and Elon Musk's spending freezes and mass firings.

Why it matters: A shutdown could make life even worse for federal workers, and appearing to want a shutdown is bad politics for Democrats.

  • Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been meeting with senators all week to discuss government funding, including a meeting with moderates today, sources tell us.
  • Schumer has made two basic requests in those conversations: keep your powder dry on discussing government funding and don't talk about wanting a government shutdown.

Zoom in: That's forcing appropriators to look for creative ways to try to regulate the Trump-Musk cost-cutting machine without resorting to explicit language that would scare Republicans off a deal to fund the government before March 14.

  • Good appropriators are masters at achieving their goals in the fine print of spending bills instead of maximalist language up high.
  • The challenge for Democrats is how to protect federal workers in the long run without causing them immediate and acute pain.

Between the lines: The blame for the government shutdown in 2018-19 fell to Trump, in part, because he claimed he would be "proud" to do so.

  • Schumer wants to avoid any implication that his party wants to facilitate a 2025 shutdown.
  • But he also knows he has some clear leverage over Republicans.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune will need at least eight Democratic votes to pass a funding package.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

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🐴 GOP lone rangers
 
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Sen. Rand Paul (left) and Rep. Thomas Massie. Photos: Bill Clark and Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Two Kentucky Republicans — Sen. Rand Paul and Rep. Thomas Massie — are staking out their claims of total resistance to leadership pressure on big votes.

Why it matters: Massie and Paul's whip immunity strips leverage from GOP leaders Johnson and Thune when negotiating with Democrats on must-pass funding bills this year.

  • Massie was the only House Republican to vote against Johnson's budget reconciliation package Tuesday. He's also against a short-term government funding bill if the deficit isn't addressed in regular spending. (It won't be, at least to his satisfaction).
  • Paul is a "no" on government funding, he told us today. That leaves Thune needing at least eight Senate Democrats to vote "yes" to keep the government open.

— Justin Green

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Speaker Mike Johnson Is Living in a D.C. House That Is the Center of a Pastor’s Secretive Influence Campaign

In 2021, Steve Berger, an evangelical pastor who has attacked the separation of church and state as “a delusional lie” and called multinational institutions “demonic,” set off on an ambitious project. His stated goal: minister to members of Congress so that what “they learn is then translated into policy.” His base of operations would be a six-bedroom, $3.7 million townhouse blocks from the U.S. Capitol.

https://www.propublica.org/article/mike-johnson-evangelical-pastor-steve-berger-roommates?

A Study of Mint Plants. A Device to Stop Bleeding. This Is the Scientific Research Ted Cruz Calls “Woke.”

A few months ago, Sen. Ted Cruz announced that he had uncovered $2 billion of science grants funded by former President Joe Biden’s administration that prioritized “radical political perspectives” or “neo-Marxist theories.’’ His aides on a congressional committee assembled the list by searching the project descriptions for 699 key terms like “women,” “diversify,” “segregation” and “Hispanic culture.”

https://www.propublica.org/article/ted-cruz-woke-grants-national-science-foundation?

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🚨 Trump speech splits Dems
 
Illustration of Trump's head profile made from game plan lines, x's and o's, on a chalkboard.
 

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

Rank-and-file Democrats are openly shrugging off House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's directive to use President Trump's address to Congress to showcase the Democratic resistance.

Why it matters: It's a question that has repeatedly splintered party members when faced with inflammatory speeches on Capitol Hill: Should they show up and protest from within, or boycott and counterprogram on the outside?

  • Jeffries and Schumer want members to attend Tuesday's speech and bring special guests who have been negatively affected by the administration.
  • "We ask that House Democrats attending the Joint Address bring a guest who has been harmed by the Trump administration's early actions," the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee told congressional offices in a memo obtained by us.

But Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told us he is leaning against attending the speech because "when Trump does it, it's not a serious event."

  • "We want to make [clear] that things are not business as usual. Things are falling apart," said Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), a DPCC co-chair who is undecided on attending.

What we're hearing: Other lawmakers told us they will take their spouses, as is common.

  • Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Jeffries' top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, said he committed weeks ago to give his plus-one to a Republican colleague.
  • "I hadn't really given much thought to bringing someone, partly out of my frustration with the president," Morelle told us.

By the numbers: Nearly a dozen House and Senate Democrats told us they are leaning against attending or undecided.

  • "As of now, I don't have any reason to go," said Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). "I know what he's going to say — he's going to get up there, he's going to lie, he's going to praise [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and all kinds of other nonsense."
  • Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) all declined to commit to attending.
  • So did Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) and Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.).

The other side: "I know that many of my colleagues are eager to sit in and express our profound opposition to everything going on," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).

  • "It is far better to push back inside the room, I think, than outside."

— Andrew Solender, Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

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Testimony prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives Full Committee on Education and the Workforce for a hearing titled “Unleashing America’s Workforce and Strengthening Our Economy”

The basic facts about the economy that the Trump-Vance administration inherited

The availability of jobs and the growth in real wages (i.e., growth in the purchasing power of wages after accounting for inflation) are where the rubber meets the road as far as “the economy” goes for working people. On both of these fronts, the economy that the Trump-Vance administration inherited is extremely strong.

https://www.epi.org/publication/testimony-prepared-for-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-full-committee-on-education-the-workforce-for-a-hearing-titled-unleashing-americas-workforce-and-strengthening-our-economy/?

🔥 Dems' Ukraine ambush

Democratic senators are preparing to pummel three of President Trump's top State Department nominees tomorrow, turning their confirmation hearings into a proxy war on the U.S. commitment to NATO and support for Ukraine.

Why it matters: It's the Democrats' first chance to punch back on what they saw as Trump's assault on Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday.

  • Democrats — and many European leaders were deeply dismayed by Trump's and Vice President Vance's exchange with Zelensky.
  • They were dumbfounded by Trump's conciliatory words for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
  • It will also give senators an opportunity to ask officials for details on Trump' pause on military funding for Ukraine.

Driving the news: Matthew Whitaker, Trump's pick to be ambassador to NATO, and Michael Rigas and Christopher Landau, his nominees for the two deputy secretary of state slots, are scheduled to appear before the Foreign Relations Committee tomorrow morning.

  • Trump's nominees are indicating they'll fiercely defend Trump's approach and demand that European allies do more to strengthen NATO.
  • "Leadership is not charity. The American people have carried the burden of global security for too long," Whitaker will say in his opening comments, according to remarks we obtained.
  • "For decades, U.S. taxpayers have funded the lion's share of NATO's defense while too many of our allies have failed to meet even their most basic obligations."

What they're saying: "It is an open question that deserves a clear answer, whether or not this administration and its nominee to be our ambassador to NATO believe in the value of the NATO alliance," Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told us.

  • "He has told me in a private meeting that he is supportive" of NATO, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Democrat on the committee, said of Whitaker.
  • "The relationship with NATO, the relationship with Ukraine, the president buddying up to dictator Putin ... all of these are big problems," said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).

— Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

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