🇮🇱 Polls of the week: Dem support for Israel surges

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A wave of new polling in the aftermath of Hamas' terrorist attack against Israel shows a significant uptick in support for the Jewish state — especially among Democrats, who had been growing less supportive of Israel. Why it matters: President Biden's stalwart support for Israel — equating Hamas with ISIS terrorists — is putting a lot of pressure on rank-and-file Democrats to fall in line. Several progressive lawmakers affiliated with the Squad are suddenly facing credible primary competition from challengers looking to make support for Israel and equivocation over terrorism an issue in their races. By the numbers: A CNN poll conducted Oct. 12-13 found that over two-thirds of 1,003 respondents believe the Israeli military response in Gaza was either "fully justified" (50%) or "partially justified" (20%) (methodology here). Among Democrats, the support for Israeli military countermeasures was nearly as high: 38% said they would be "fully justified," while 30% said they would be partially justified. An Oct. 7-9 Fox News survey of 1,007 randomly selected registered voters found 68% side more with the Israelis, with just 18% siding with the Palestinians. Support for Israel spiked nine percentage points since May 2021, when the pollster last asked the question. The uptick was mostly attributable to rising support for Israel among Democrats: 59% now say they side with the Israelis, and just 25% with the Palestinians. Zoom in: Over three-fourths of 1,737 adults in a Quinnipiac poll taken Oct. 12-16 think supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States — including 84% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats and 74% of independents. Only 20% of Americans said the U.S. was "too supportive" of Israel — with the greatest degree of opposition (30%) centered on the youngest voters ages 18-34. Between the lines: The improved public opinion toward Israel among Democrats is also translating into legislative activity on Capitol Hill. Many typically progressive lawmakers who normally call for de-escalation and restraint from Israel have held back for now. J Street, the progressive Israel advocacy group, is telling supportive members of Congress that sponsorship of a bipartisan pro-Israel resolution is a prerequisite for their endorsement in 2024. The bottom line: Israel's expected ground invasion of Gaza, which is likely to involve heavy urban combat and destruction, will offer the biggest test of whether the uptick in Democratic support for Israel is long-lasting.