Members phkrause Posted August 1, 2024 Members Posted August 1, 2024 How two strikes on militant leaders in the Middle East could escalate into a regional war TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The targeting of two senior militant leaders in two Middle Eastern capitals within hours of each other — with each strike blamed on Israel — risks rocking the region at a critical moment. https://apnews.com/article/haniyeh-shukur-israel-lebanon-hamas-5d3ec9b048ef77b6b8196c6c08755dbd? Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 1, 2024 Author Members Posted August 1, 2024 Fear for hostage talks Palestinians carry a portrait of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh at the site of a destroyed building belonging to the Haniyeh in Al-Shati refugee camp of Gaza City today. Photo: Dawoud Abo Alkas/Anadolu via Getty Images The Biden administration is "very concerned" the assassination of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh could derail negotiations over the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal and increase the risk of a regional war, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Why it matters: The Biden administration has put such a deal between Israel and Hamas at the center of its post-war strategy in the Middle East. White House spokesperson John Kirby said in a briefing with reporters today that it is "too soon to know" how Haniyeh's assassination would influence the Gaza hostage and ceasefire talks. "This doesn't mean we are going to stop working on it," he said. Driving the news: Haniyeh was killed on Tuesday night when he was sleeping in an Iranian government official guest residence in Tehran. His deputy Khalil al-Haia said he was killed when a missile hit his bedroom. Hamas and the Iranian government accused Israel of killing Haniyeh and said they will retaliate. The Israeli Prime Minister's office and Ministry of Defense declined to comment. But U.S. and Israeli officials say Israel was behind the assassination. Go deeper Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 1, 2024 Author Members Posted August 1, 2024 For Iran and Hezbollah, calibrating response to Israeli strikes leaves no room for error Two back-to-back strikes in Beirut and Tehran, both attributed to Israel and targeting high-ranking figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, have left Hezbollah and Iran in a quandary. Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking a more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war. Read more. Why this matters: Analysts said both Hezbollah and Iran will feel compelled to retaliate, but their calculations differ. Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center who researches Hezbollah, said in order to reestablish deterrence after Tuesday’s strike, “Hezbollah would need to respond beyond its now-limited geographical scope of operations. They need to strike deeper in Israeli territories, and this brings with it great risks.” For Iran, the situation is more complicated. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh took place on Iranian soil, embarrassing Tehran and making clear that Israel can easily hit targets there. And while some analysts believe that will be mitigated by the fact the target was not an Iranian figure, Iranian officials have vowed a harsh response. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ A look at Israel's long history of targeted killings Iran’s supreme leader prays over the coffin of Hamas leader Haniyeh, whose killing risks a wider war The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh’s replacement. Here are the possible contenders Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 2, 2024 Author Members Posted August 2, 2024 Middle East Iranian leaders have vowed to "strike Israel directly" following the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran this week. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in Haniyeh's assassination. On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has delivered "crushing blows" to its enemies in the last few days, adding his country is "ready for any scenario." Experts say Haniyeh's assassination will complicate the tenuous efforts to procure a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza, as well as hopes of de-escalation between Israel and its Iran-backed rivals in the region. In today's "One Thing" podcast, CNN's Tamara Qiblawi joins us from Beirut to tell us more about the death of Haniyeh inside Iran. Listen here. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 4, 2024 Author Members Posted August 4, 2024 Middle East Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh will be buried today in Qatar as his killing raises fears that Israel's war with the Palestinian militant group in Gaza could spiral into a fully-fledged Middle East conflict. President Biden said the assassination had "not helped" the chances of a ceasefire deal and expressed concern about the escalating tensions in the region after Iran vowed to avenge Haniyeh's death. Biden is now weighing more US defenses in the Middle East as the US prepares for an Iranian retaliation against Israel that could include an attack on American forces. Haniyeh was killed in Tehran using a hidden explosive device, a source told CNN, becoming the third high-profile figure in Iran-backed militant groups to be killed in recent weeks. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 4, 2024 Author Members Posted August 4, 2024 Biden warns Netanyahu against escalation as risk of regional war grows President Biden privately demanded in a "tough" call Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stop escalating tensions in the region and move immediately toward a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, two U.S. officials told Axios. https://www.axios.com/2024/08/02/biden-netanyahu-call-israel-iran-hezbollah? Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 6, 2024 Author Members Posted August 6, 2024 ⚡ U.S. boosts forces in Middle East Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome air defense system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel today. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images The U.S. general in charge of American forces in the Middle East arrived in the region yesterday as preparations continue for a possible Iranian attack against Israel in retaliation for the assassinations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: Three U.S. and Israeli officials said they expect Iran to attack Israel as early as tomorrow. The U.S. is boosting its forces in the Middle East and sending more warships and fighter jets to the region in preparation, the Pentagon said Friday. U.S. officials expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their Apr. 13 attack on Israel, but potentially larger in scope — and it could also involve Hezbollah in Lebanon. Gen. Michael Kurilla is expected to use the trip to try to mobilize the same international and regional coalition that defended Israel on Apr. 13, a U.S. official said. Keep reading. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 6, 2024 Author Members Posted August 6, 2024 🇮🇱 Scoop: Blinken's Iran attack timeline Israel's Iron Dome system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon yesterday. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images Secretary of State Tony Blinken told his counterparts from G7 countries yesterday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as today, sources briefed on the call tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: Blinken convened the conference call to coordinate with close U.S. allies, and try to generate last-minute diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to minimize their retaliation as much as possible. Blinken stressed that limiting the impact of their strikes is the best chance to prevent all-out war. Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah have vowed to respond to the Israeli assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. 👀 Behind the scenes: The SecState told counterparts the U.S. is making efforts to break the escalatory cycle by trying to limit the attacks by Iran and Hezbollah as much as possible and then restrain the Israeli response. One source who was on the call said Blinken sounded frustrated when he briefed the ministers on recent talks with Israel over a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal. Blinken said the administration felt it was "close to a breakthrough" before the assassination in Tehran. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 6, 2024 Author Members Posted August 6, 2024 US and allies prepare to defend Israel Israel is already in a “multi-front war” with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting Sunday, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict. Read more. Key developments: Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killings last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. Iran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader. Netanyahu said Israel was ready for any scenario. Some prepared bomb shelters and recalled Iran’s unprecedented direct military assault in April following a suspected Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals. Jordan’s foreign minister was making a rare trip to Iran as part of diplomatic efforts, while the Pentagon has moved significant assets to the region. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Hezbollah says it has launched a drone attack on northern Israel Missile attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels hits container ship in first attack in 2 weeks US boosts military presence in Mideast, sending fighter jet squadron and keeping carrier in region Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 7, 2024 Author Members Posted August 7, 2024 🇮🇱 U.S. expects two-wave attack President Biden and Vice President Harris were told in a Situation Room meeting last night that U.S. intelligence expects a scenario involving two waves of attacks on Israel — one from Hezbollah and the other from Iran and several of its proxies. It was still unclear to U.S. intelligence who would attack first, Axios' Barak Ravid writes. Between the lines: Intelligence indicates the response by Iran and Hezbollah is still a "work in progress" and both are undecided about what exactly they want to do, one U.S. official said. Biden and Harris were also updated about a rocket attack that seriously injured several U.S. soldiers at the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq. A U.S. official said the Pentagon expects more attacks by pro-Iranian militias against forces in the region in the coming days, and stressed that growing tensions are making the militias feel less restrained by Iran than they were in recent months. Keep reading. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 12, 2024 Author Members Posted August 12, 2024 US beefs up security and orders a missile submarine to the Middle East The United States defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, has ordered a guided missile submarine to the Middle East and is telling the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to sail more quickly to the area, the Defense Department said Sunday. The moves come as the U.S. and other allies push for Israel and Hamas to achieve a cease-fire agreement that could help calm soaring tensions in the region. Read more. Recent developments: Officials have been on the lookout for retaliatory strikes by both Iran and Hezbollah for the killings, and the U.S. has been increasing its presence in the region following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. The Pentagon said Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant earlier in the day and reiterated America’s commitment “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.” The call comes a day after an Israeli airstrike hit a school-turned-shelter in Gaza, killing at least 80 people and wounding nearly 50 others, Palestinian health authorities said, in one of the deadliest attacks of the 10-month Israel-Hamas war. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Leaders of France, Germany and Britain endorse calls for cease-fire in Gaza while EU top diplomat suggests sanctions over aid remarks US will keep aid flowing to an Israeli unit accused of rights abuses, citing remediation efforts On Geneva Conventions’ 75th anniversary, fighters in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond ignore rulebook of war Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 12, 2024 Author Members Posted August 12, 2024 🇮🇱 Sources: Iran preparing attack Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defense system in northern Israel last week. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images The Israeli intelligence community's updated assessment is that Iran is poised to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas' political leader in Tehran and is likely to do it within days, sources told Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: The new intelligence assessment indicates an attack could come before the Gaza hostage and ceasefire talks planned for Thursday. That potentially jeopardizes negotiations at what Israeli officials have said is a "now-or-never" moment for a potential deal between Israel and Hamas. 🔬 Zoom in: The assessment, which was drafted in the last 24 hours, represents a shift. Over the last week, Israeli intelligence thought Iran hadn't yet decided on the timing and nature of its response — and that international pressure and internal debates could push Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei towards postponing, restraining or minimizing the retaliation. Iran's mission to the UN, in a statement on Friday, said: "[W]e hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire." But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin yesterday that the Iranian military preparations suggest Iran is getting ready for a large-scale attack, a source told Axios. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 12, 2024 Author Members Posted August 12, 2024 Middle East tensions A barrage of rockets fired by Hezbollah into Israel on Sunday night has further heightened tensions in the Middle East. The latest salvo was fired in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza and in retaliation for Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, the militant group said in a statement. Rocket fire toward Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon has become a near-daily occurrence since the outbreak of war in Gaza as fears grow over a possible Iranian attack that could escalate into a wider regional conflict. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a submarine to the Middle East and accelerated the arrival of a carrier strike group to the region ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack against Israel, the Pentagon said on Sunday. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 13, 2024 Author Members Posted August 13, 2024 White House: U.S. intelligence indicates Iran could attack Israel within days The White House on Monday said U.S. intelligence indicates it is increasingly likely Iran will attack Israel this week, matching the latest Israeli intelligence assessment. https://www.axios.com/2024/08/12/iran-israel-white-house-us-intelligence-attack? Middle East Israel and the US are preparing for a potential Iranian attack on Israel as efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza intensify ahead of the expected resumption of formal negotiations this week. A major attack against Israel could risk disrupting the negotiations that US officials have said were at an advanced stage prior to the assassination of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which Iran blamed on Israel. Israel hasn't confirmed or denied responsibility. The White House said on Monday that it shares Israel's concerns and expectations about an attack from Iran in the coming days, pointing to increased American force posture in the region as preparation for an Iranian reprisal. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 14, 2024 Author Members Posted August 14, 2024 US approves $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel amid threat of wider Middle East war The impending sale, which includes more than 50 F-15 fighter jets, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs, 120 mm tank ammunition, and tactical vehicles, comes at a time of intense concern that Israel may become involved in a wider Middle East war. Read more. Key points: The weapons are not expected to get to Israel anytime soon. They are contracts that will take years to fulfill and much of what is being sold is to help Israel increase its military capability in the long term. The earliest systems being delivered aren’t expected until around 2026. The Biden administration has had to balance its continued backing for Israel with a growing number of calls from lawmakers and the U.S. public to curb military support due to the high number of civilian deaths in Gaza. It has halted one delivery of 2,000-pound weapons amid continued airstrikes by Israel in densely populated civilian areas in Gaza. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ A new round of Gaza cease-fire talks is starting. Why is a deal so elusive? Analysis: Iran's threats of retaliation against Israel trigger high-stakes diplomacy UCLA can’t allow protesters to block Jewish students from campus, judge rules Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 17, 2024 Author Members Posted August 17, 2024 Middle East Mediators in talks for a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel are making a last-ditch effort this week to revive stalled negotiations as the Middle East braces for an Iranian attack on Israel. A high-stakes meeting concluded on Thursday and will resume today, a diplomatic source briefed on the talks told CNN. In the meeting, Qatar, Egypt and the US were expected to present a plan to implement a deal that could bring about a ceasefire in the 10-month-long war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages. While inconclusive so far, Thursday's talks marked "a promising start," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 19, 2024 Author Members Posted August 19, 2024 Middle East Seven members of the same family were killed in an Israeli airstrike in central Gaza on Sunday, medical officials said, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Israel to push for a ceasefire and hostage deal. The top US diplomat said this is "probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a ceasefire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security." A new ceasefire plan drawn up by the US, Qatar and Egypt was presented on Friday following two days of high-stakes talks in Doha. Israel's campaign in Gaza — launched following the Hamas attacks of October 7 — has killed more than 40,000 people and reduced much of the territory to rubble. Adding to Gazans' woes, doctors last week detected the first case of polio in Gaza in 25 years. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 26, 2024 Author Members Posted August 26, 2024 Middle East The Israeli military launched what it called "preemptive" strikes over the weekend against Hezbollah in Lebanon as the Iran-backed militant group said it carried out its own attacks in response to the killing of a top commander. The latest strikes are some of the most serious yet between Israel and Hezbollah, who have been exchanging fire for months. They also took place just hours before mediation talks resumed in the Egyptian capital Cairo, which aim to strike a ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Separately, polio vaccines for more than 1.2 million people have been delivered to the Gaza Strip. This comes as the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Ramallah is preparing for a large-scale vaccination campaign to prevent the highly infectious virus from further spreading in the embattled enclave. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted August 28, 2024 Author Members Posted August 28, 2024 ⚓️ Mapped: Show of force Data: Axios research. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The U.S. has positioned about 18 warships, including two aircraft carriers, in and around the Middle East as it seeks to deter Iran and its proxies from conducting attacks that could evolve into all-out war with Israel, Axios' Colin Demarest writes. Why it matters: This is a frantic year for the U.S. Navy. Some of the vessels operating in the region have been combating the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels for months, while more Navy and Air Force assets are being brought in now as a show of force. In addition to two carrier strike groups now operating in the Middle East, an Air Force F-22 Raptor squadron has arrived in the region and the USS Georgia — a guided-missile submarine — is operating nearby. Disclosing the location or destination of a submarine like the nuclear-powered USS Georgia is a rare and purposeful power move. Taken together, "there are easily more than 500 Tomahawk missiles ready to attack Iran and more than 100 aircraft ready to defend allies to respond," notes Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Institute's Center for Defense Concepts and Technology. 🔭 Between the lines: All this firepower concentrated in the greater Middle East frustrates a long-standing Defense Department priority: pivoting to the Indo-Pacific. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted September 16, 2024 Author Members Posted September 16, 2024 Middle East The Israeli military says that three Israeli hostages whose bodies were recovered from Gaza in December were "most likely" killed as a result of an Israeli airstrike. Recovering the hostages captured by Hamas on October 7 is one of the main goals of Israel's campaign in Gaza as pressure builds to end the humanitarian crisis in the region. US officials are trying to get both sides to agree to a deal first laid out by President Biden in May. The three-phase proposal pairs the release of hostages with a "full and complete ceasefire." Since then talks have stalled and both sides have pointed to what they see as glaring holes in the framework, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisting that Israel's forces will never leave the stretch along the Egypt-Gaza border known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted September 18, 2024 Author Members Posted September 18, 2024 Middle East Hezbollah has vowed to respond to an Israeli attack that killed at least nine people and injured thousands across Lebanon on Tuesday when pagers belonging to members of the Iran-backed militant group exploded almost simultaneously. Footage showed shoppers and pedestrians collapsing in the street following the blasts. Israel was behind the attack, CNN has learned. The New York Times reported that Israel hid explosives inside a batch of pagers destined for Hezbollah. A switch was embedded to detonate them remotely, it added. Israel has not commented. The attack risks further escalating tensions in the Middle East already heightened over Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza. It also underscores Hezbollah's vulnerability as its communication network was compromised to deadly effect. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted September 20, 2024 Author Members Posted September 20, 2024 What to know about the two waves of deadly explosions that hit Lebanon and Syria NEW YORK (AP) — Just one day after pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon Wednesday in what appeared to be a second wave of sophisticated, deadly attacks that targeted an extraordinary number of people. https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-pager-explosion-e9493409a0648b846fdcadffdb02d71e? Middle East Walkie-talkies detonated in Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 20 people and wounding hundreds of others in a fresh attack targeting Hezbollah. The blasts came almost exactly 24 hours after pager explosions killed at least 12 people and injured thousands across the country. Israel's defense minister said a "new era" of war was beginning, tacitly acknowledging its role in the shock twin attacks, which have pushed the Middle East back to the brink of a wider conflict. Since Hamas' October 7 attack, Israel has regularly carried out strikes in Lebanon in response to the launch of Hezbollah drones and missiles. Israel has also targeted senior Hamas officials in Lebanon. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted September 22, 2024 Author Members Posted September 22, 2024 Middle East The Israeli military is shifting its focus and resources to the border with Lebanon, where it sees near-daily conflict with the militant group Hezbollah. On Thursday, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged dozens of strikes. Both sides are ramping up their attacks after Israel targeted Hezbollah members with explosives hidden inside pagers and walkie-talkies this week, bringing the Middle East to the brink of a wider conflict nearly a year after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its October 7 assault on Israel. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said Israel "crossed all the red lines" when detonating the explosions and warned that the fighting won't stop on the Lebanese front until hostilities end in Gaza. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted September 22, 2024 Author Members Posted September 22, 2024 Why the US is more hands-off than usual in the Middle East The Biden administration is taking a more hands-off approach than usual during a week of dramatic escalation between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, with top U.S. officials holding back from full-on crisis diplomacy for fear of making matters worse. Read more. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
Members phkrause Posted September 24, 2024 Author Members Posted September 24, 2024 Middle East tensions Israel is "conducting extensive strikes" on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, the Israeli military said today, following a weekend that saw the two sides exchange their most intense fire since the war in Gaza began. Israel has urged civilians to leave areas in which Hezbollah operates, warning it would soon engage in "precise strikes" against the Iran-backed militant group across Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering a plan to force all Palestinians out of northern Gaza to lay siege to Hamas and force the release of hostages. The plan doesn't say when civilians would be allowed to return. Quote phkrause Obstinacy is a barrier to all improvement. - ChL 60
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