Coming Middle East War??

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Middle East

A diplomatic push is underway to prevent a regional war from erupting in the Middle East, with the US and its allies calling for a 21-day ceasefire across the Israel-Lebanon border as the UN chief urged all sides to "step back from the brink." The calls for calm come after Israel's military said it was preparing for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon. It also said it was calling up two reserve brigades for missions in the north. As the conflict escalates, Israel and Hezbollah are trading waves of strikes, forcing tens of thousands in Lebanon to flee their homes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not responded to the ceasefire proposal, his office said in a statement today, adding that reports suggesting there could be a pause were "incorrect."

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Middle East

Israeli airstrikes hit an intersection in the Lebanese capital of Beirut today, the first time the strikes have landed within the city limits since October 7. The attack comes days after Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In recent weeks, Israel has expanded its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, stoking fears of a regional war, as Hezbollah pledged to continue fighting despite losses in its senior ranks. President Joe Biden said he is "working like hell" with allies to prevent an all-out war in the Middle East. Before Nasrallah's killing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brushed off a ceasefire proposal brokered by the US.

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Israel repels Iranian strike

Projectiles fly through the sky over Jerusalem today after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel. Photo: Jamal Awad/Reuters Only one person — a Palestinian in the West Bank — appears to have died today in the largest attack Iran has ever mounted against Israel, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Israel and the U.S. intercepted almost all of the 180 rockets Iran launched this afternoon. "The Iranian attack was defeated by the U.S. and Israel and was ineffective. It's a great success," a U.S. official told Axios. 🚨How it happened: Numerous explosions were reported in central Israel, and Israeli missile defense systems lit up the sky as they activated to intercept the incoming missiles. Sirens sounded across much of Israel as the attack began. 🇮🇷 What's next: Iran said the attack was launched in retaliation for a string of recent Israeli assassinations, but that it was now over, as long as Israel does not respond with force. Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in televised remarks: "We will protect the citizens of Israel. This attack will have consequences. We have plans. We will act at the time and place of our choosing." Go deeper.

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Middle East tensions

 

Israel's war cabinet is weighing its response after Iran on Tuesday launched its largest-ever attack on the country. Israel's UN ambassador Danny Danon told CNN that retaliation "will be soon" and will be "very strong." People in Tehran are on edge, with many fearing Israel's retaliatory attack could target Iranian nuclear facilities. President Joe Biden said he does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites, adding that all members of the G7 on Wednesday agreed that Israel should "respond proportionally." Meanwhile, an Israeli strike in central Beirut killed at least six people today. Israel's strikes have killed over 1,000 people in Lebanon and displaced about 1 million residents since it escalated its war with Hezbollah.

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🌍 Mapped: Israel's expanding war

Data: ACLED. Map: Jared Whalen and Jacque Schrag/Axios Israel's war in Gaza is still raging, but the heaviest fighting has recently shifted to southern Lebanon, Axios' Dave Lawler and Jacque Schrag write. Israel says its goal is to clear out Hezbollah infrastructure to allow civilians who fled northern Israel after Oct. 8, 2023 — when Israel and Hezbollah began exchanging cross-border strikes — to safely return home. 👀 What we're watching: Israel says it's planning a "significant retaliation" for Iran's recent 180-missile attack, which could include strikes on oil infrastructure and other strategic targets. Iran — which launched a massive attack on Israel last week in response to the assassination of Hamas' leader in Tehran and Hezbollah's leader in Beirut — said it hopes to avoid war with Israel, and that its retaliation is over unless Israel responds with force. Share this story.

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Israel’s strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support

WASHINGTON (AP) — Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran’s armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-middle-east-war-united-states-36d7c0bbc35964ed6ac9d21de17c632a?

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As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel has promised to retaliate for Iran’s massive missile attack last week. How it does so involves great risk, and could have major repercussions for the archenemies, the Middle East and the world.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-nuclear-hezbollah-hamas-missile-retaliation-0184e79d4ee5ec012960e0b24ddae102?

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Middle East

President Joe Biden held a "direct," 30-minute phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday — their first conversation in almost two months. They discussed Israel's planned response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack last week but the White House gave no details on the talks. The two leaders went 49 days without speaking amid rapidly escalating tensions in the Middle East — a sign of how fraught the relationship has become and how far apart they are in their objectives for the region. Pressure is also building on Netanyahu to urgently address the catastrophic conditions in Gaza. A US envoy to the United Nations warned Wednesday that "actions by the Israeli government to limit the delivery of aid" would intensify suffering.

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The US is sending a missile defense system and troops to Israel to aid defense against Iran The United States will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery to Israel, along with the troops needed to operate it, the Pentagon said Sunday, even as Iran warned Washington to keep American military forces out of Israel. Read more.

Why this matters: Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesperson, said in a statement that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorized the deployment of the THAAD battery at the direction of President Joe Biden. In a brief exchange with reporters before leaving Florida on Sunday, Biden said he agreed to deploy the THAAD battery “to defend Israel.”   The delivery of the sophisticated missile defense system risks further inflaming the conflict in the Middle East despite widespread diplomatic efforts to avoid an all-out war. Israel is widely believed to be preparing a military response to Iran’s Oct. 1 attack, when it fired roughly 180 missiles into Israel.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Israeli strike on hospital tent camp kills 4 and ignites a fire that burns dozens   Israel says 4 soldiers killed by Hezbollah drone attack while Israeli strike in Gaza leaves 20 dead   Netanyahu examines plan to empty northern Gaza of civilians and cut off aid to those left inside

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Middle East tensions

The US is sending 100 troops and an anti-missile system to Israel "to help bolster Israel's air defenses following Iran's unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1," the Pentagon said Sunday. It is not the first time the US has deployed the anti-missile system to the Middle East, but it is rare for US troops to deploy inside Israel. The move deepens US involvement in the growing Middle East war and comes after four Israeli soldiers were killed Sunday in a Hezbollah drone attack on an army base in central-northern Israel. The incident is one of the bloodiest attacks on Israel since the beginning of the war last October.

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How Israel decimated Hamas and Hezbollah leadership

Photos: Getty Images, AP, Hezbollah Military Media. Chart: Axios Visuals One by one, Israel has tracked, targeted and eliminated the leadership of its greatest regional enemies in a sprawling decapitation operation with little precedent in modern history, Axios' Barak Ravid writes. Why it matters: The killing of Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar this past week capped an astonishing three-month streak in which a succession of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, as well as several Iranian generals, were taken out by Israel. The series of killings, a year after the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks, has dealt a devastating blow to the so-called "axis of resistance" Iran has been building, arming and funding for years. ⚡ Driving the news: One of Israel's top goals since the start of the war has been to kill the leaders of Hamas and any militants involved in the Oct. 7 attacks. A special unit inside Israel's domestic intelligence service, the Shin Bet, was formed to do exactly that. U.S. intelligence services and special operation units worked with the Israelis for months to hunt down Sinwar and his deputies, investing a huge amount of intelligence and operational resources. Time and time again, the forces got close to Sinwar inside the Hamas tunnels in southern Gaza — but he had managed to evade them. When Sinwar was finally caught, it was pure coincidence. The Israel Defense Forces unit that closed in on the house he was hiding in didn't know the identity of the militants with whom they were exchanging fire. The 19-year-old soldier who killed the most wanted man in the Middle East only discovered his historic accomplishment in hindsight. Flashback: As the fighting with Hezbollah on the northern border escalated in the days after Oct. 7, Israel also started targeting senior commanders of the Iranian-backed militia. A breakthrough came in mid-July with the killing of the commander of Hamas' military wing, Mohammed Deif. It was the first time Israel had managed to kill one of the architects of the Oct. 7 attacks. Two weeks later, Israel conducted an airstrike in Beirut and killed Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr — the biggest blow to the militia since Israel's assassination of its previous military commander, Imad Mughniyeh, in 2008. Another Israeli assassination was carried out less than a day later — this time in Tehran, where a bomb exploded in an Iranian government guesthouse and killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Over the next few days, Israel carried out a series of unprecedented airstrikes that destroyed large parts of Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenals and killed many of its senior and mid-level commanders. Those attacks reached their height in late September with the assassination of Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah in his bunker with many of his senior deputies. Story continues below.

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🇮🇱 Part 2: Israel seeks exit strategy

The series of assassinations and other military operations in the region helped restore much of Israel's deterrence, which was shattered on Oct. 7, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Israeli officials say most of Hamas' and Hezbollah's military leadership has been eliminated, and much of the political leadership is dead or on the run.
• Still, while the decapitations have made it far more difficult for Hamas and Hezbollah to function, the groups are far from destroyed or willing to surrender.

🔎 Between the lines: Despite the elimination of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel is still looking for an exit strategy from the wars it's fighting.

• Such a strategy will have to include a deal for the release of the hostages, a plan for post-Hamas governance in Gaza, and a diplomatic agreement in Lebanon that allows for the return of displaced civilians on both sides of the border.
• All of those seem elusive.

🔭 What's next: "The challenge going forward is to turn tactical wins in battle into a strategy that secures Israel's people and its future," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in his speech at the Oct. 7 memorial ceremony at the Israeli embassy two weeks ago.

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Israel strikes Iran as payback for missile attack, risking escalation of Mideast wars

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israel pounded Iran with a series of airstrikes early Saturday, saying it was targeting military sites in retaliation for the barrage of ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic fired upon Israel earlier in the month.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-25-2024-0920f63542d158ad5999c481e421da00?

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Israel warned Iran before attack

Flightradar24 image shows commercial flights avoiding Iranian airspace today, after Iran suspended all flights until further notice. Photo: AFP via Getty Images Israel sent a message to Iran yesterday ahead of its retaliatory airstrikes, warning the Iranians not to respond, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Why it matters: The Israeli message was an attempt to limit the ongoing exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran and prevent a wider escalation, the sources said. U.S. and Israeli officials said three waves of airstrikes took place this morning, local time. The first wave focused on Iran's air defense system. The second and third waves focused on missile and drone bases and weapon production sites. Iran said it defeated the Israeli attack and that only "limited damage" was done. Israeli officials said the attack was in retaliation for Iran's massive ballistic missile attack on Oct. 1. Behind the scenes: The Israeli message was conveyed to Iran through several third parties. Keep reading.

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🛢️ U.S. feared Iran could hit Saudi oil fields

Damaged buildings at Iran's Parchin military base outside Tehran today. Photo: Planet Labs PBC via AP The White House saw a real risk Iran might attack Saudi oil fields in retaliation for Saturday's retaliatory strikes by Israel, which could have meant full-blown regional war, a top U.S. official tells me. Iran's supreme leader stopped short of calling for immediate retaliation, suggesting Iran is carefully weighing its response. Why it matters: Israel's strikes, by hitting military targets rather than industrial facilities, have — for now — prevented a wider war. That has been a key goal of President Biden and Secretary of State Tony Blinken since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel. Between the lines: Saudi Arabia doesn't have defenses as extensive as Israel's layered systems, making the desert kingdom more vulnerable. We're told the risk of Iran hitting Saudi oil fields would have arisen had Israel hit Iranian oil fields. ⚡ The latest: Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran took out a critical component in Iran's ballistic missile program, Israeli sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid. The destruction of the equipment severely damages Iran's ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter Iran from further massive missile strikes against Israel, the sources said.

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Five things to know about Israel’s attack on Iran

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel delivered its long-expected response to Iranian missile attacks early Saturday by carrying out a series of airstrikes against the Islamic Republic.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-attack-israel-strikes-mideast-war-tehran-35a2b1474e5feedbb200c3aaa557fe60?

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Middle East

Negotiations for a ceasefire and to secure the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza are not expected to see “significant progress” until a winner is declared in the US presidential election, a source briefed on the talks told CNN. The latest round of talks, which began in Qatar on Sunday, did not focus on achieving a deal, but rather on jump-starting the process, the source added. The discussions also covered the war in Lebanon, as well as Iran and its regional influence. Meanwhile, Iran has vowed to respond to Israel’s strikes on the country Saturday, which Tehran says killed five people, but said it does not want a wider war. Israel said the strikes hit military targets and were in response to Iran’s attacks on Israel earlier this month.

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Middle East

Israel's parliament has banned the UN Palestinian refugee agency despite international outcry. The new laws prevent UNRWA from operating in the country, a move the UN chief warned could have "devastating consequences" for millions of Palestinian refugees living in areas under Israel's control. The move follows an intense Israeli campaign to dismantle UNRWA as the Jewish state's relations with the UN have reached an all-time low amid the ongoing war in Gaza. Israel previously accused UNRWA staff of taking part in Hamas' October 7 attack, which the agency strongly denied. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in eastern Lebanon killed dozens of people in some of the deadliest attacks of the Israel-Hezbollah war, Lebanese officials said.

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Israel says it carried out a ground raid into Syria, seizing a Syrian citizen connected to Iran The Israeli military said Sunday it carried out a ground raid into Syria, seizing a Syrian citizen involved in Iranian networks. It was the first time in the current war that Israel announced its troops operated in Syrian territory. Read more.

Key points: Israel has carried out airstrikes in Syria multiple times over the past year, targeting members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and officials from Iran, the close ally of both Hezbollah and Syria. But it has not previously made public any ground forays into Syria.   The Israeli military said the seizure was part of a special operation “that took place in recent months,” though it did not say exactly when it occurred. Syria did not immediately confirm the announcement, but a pro-government Syrian radio station, Sham FM, reported Sunday that Israeli forces carried out a “kidnapping operation” over the summer targeting a man in the south of the country.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Middle East latest: Israel ends agreement with UN agency providing aid in Gaza   Israel investigates leaks that appear to have bolstered Netanyahu as Gaza truce talks stalled   Takeaways from AP’s report on three hospitals in northern Gaza raided by Israeli troops

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Israeli strikes kill dozens in Lebanon and isolated northern Gaza while Netanyahu and Trump speak Israeli strikes killed dozens of people including children on Sunday in Lebanon and isolated northern Gaza, as the world watched for signs of how the U.S. election might affect the wars between Israel and Iranian-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Read more.

Recent developments: The Israeli airstrike in Lebanon killed at least 23 people, including seven children, in Aalmat village north of Beirut, far from the areas in the east and south where Hezbollah has a major presence. There was no Israeli evacuation warning. Israel’s military said that it hit a Hezbollah site used to store weapons, and the strike was under review.   Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he has spoken three times with Donald Trump since Tuesday’s election and they “see eye-to-eye regarding the Iranian threat and all of its components.” Israeli President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday.   The mid-month deadline is approaching for the Biden administration’s ultimatum for Israel: Allow more aid into Gaza or risk possible restrictions on U.S. military funding. Cease-fire talks have repeatedly stalled and Qatar, a key mediator with Hamas, said Saturday that it had suspended its efforts and would resume them when “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Traumatized by war, hundreds of Lebanon’s children struggle with wounds both physical and emotional   Qatar suspends its mediation efforts on Gaza and the Hamas office there may have to leave   UN nuclear head to visit Iran for talks on country’s nuclear program as next Trump presidency looms

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Israel destroyed Iranian nuclear complex

A Maxar closeup satellite imagery of the Parchin Military Complex in Iran from 2022. Photo: Satellite image © Maxar Technologies The Israeli attack on Iran in late October destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility in Parchin, U.S. and Israeli officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: The strike, which targeted a site previously reported to be inactive, significantly damaged Iran's effort over the past year to resume nuclear weapons research, Israeli and U.S. officials said. A former Israeli official briefed on the strike said it destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it. Iran has denied it is pursuing nuclear weapons. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement last week that "Iran is not after nuclear weapons, period." The Iranian mission to the UN declined to comment. The incoming Trump administration will include several key national security and foreign policy officials who are hawkish on Iran, which could lead to increased U.S. pressure on the Islamic Republic. One of the targets of the Israeli strike on Oct. 25 was the Taleghan 2 facility in the Parchin military complex, about 20 miles southeast of Tehran. The facility was part of the Iranian Amad nuclear weapons program until Iran halted its military nuclear program in 2003. It was used for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device, according to the Institute for Science and International Security. High-resolution satellite imagery acquired by the institute after the Israeli strike showed the Taleghan 2 building was completely destroyed. 🔎 Behind the scenes: Israeli and U.S. officials said the activity that took place recently at the Taleghan 2 facility was part of an effort inside the Iranian government to conduct research that could be used for developing nuclear weapons, but could also be presented as research for civilian purposes. Keep reading.

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Middle East latest: Gaza war deaths pass 46,000 and Lebanon ends presidential deadlock

Gaza’s Health Ministry said Thursday that more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war, with no end in sight to the 15-month conflict.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-syria-lebanon-news-01-09-2025-a6ffc6e062d81f57e13682d35d562b02?

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Who’s the Real Bully of the Middle East?

A tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced Monday appears to be holding. President Donald Trump made the announcement after unilaterally dragging the U.S. into the conflict and authorizing strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites using 30,000-pound bunker busters. 

https://theintercept.com/2025/06/28/podcast-iran-nuclear-trump-diplomacy/?