Israel

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• ✈️ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the co-pilot involved in yesterday's attempted hijacking of a flight from Dubai to Israel underwent Islamic radicalization in recent months. More from Barak Ravid.

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Bibi's last stand

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos via Getty Images

Israel is marking the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 terror attacks three weeks before an election where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal culpability for the country's worst-ever security failure will be a central issue, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler write. Why it matters: Netanyahu has defied expectations by keeping his government afloat through years of simultaneous wars and perpetual emergency. Tight polls still leave the ultimate political survivor a path to hang on. The big picture: Oct. 7 still looms over the country and his candidacy. The opposition lambasts him for refusing to take responsibility or allow an independent inquiry into the Hamas attacks that killed around 1,200 people. Netanyahu's chief opponent, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza. Sources close to Eisenkot say he sees his main mission as replacing the man he holds responsible for allowing the Oct. 7 attacks. 🔎 Zoom in: Netanyahu blames the deep state, claiming his security chiefs kept him in the dark. His political and media allies have even spread conspiracy theories implying that those officials betrayed Israel. But recent reporting suggests Netanyahu had at least some warning. Israeli outlet Haaretz reported that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) told Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation days before the attack. Three knowledgeable sources confirm to Axios that UAE intelligence gave a general warning to its Israeli counterparts and that MBZ spoke to Netanyahu to make sure he received it. Netanyahu denies receiving the UAE warning and has sued several media outlets and journalists that reported he had. Between the lines: The vote could determine not just Netanyahu's political survival, but his legal future as well. Losing power would also mean losing any levers to delay or influence an ongoing corruption trial. But if he wins, Netanyahu could argue he was acquitted by the people of Israel and take stronger action to thwart the proceedings. 👀 The intrigue: President Trump could give Netanyahu a boost by endorsing him, but so far he's declined. Trump has privately blamed Netanyahu for the Oct. 7 failures, according to two people who have discussed the matter directly with the president. He's also mused about Netanyahu damaging Israel's international reputation. However, Trump has stuck close to Netanyahu during the war in Iran and may still endorse him.