Israel

[phkrause]

• ✈️ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the co-pilot involved in yesterday's attempted hijacking of a flight from Dubai to Israel underwent Islamic radicalization in recent months. More from Barak Ravid.

[phkrause]

Bibi's last stand

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos via Getty Images

Israel is marking the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 terror attacks three weeks before an election where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal culpability for the country's worst-ever security failure will be a central issue, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler write. Why it matters: Netanyahu has defied expectations by keeping his government afloat through years of simultaneous wars and perpetual emergency. Tight polls still leave the ultimate political survivor a path to hang on. The big picture: Oct. 7 still looms over the country and his candidacy. The opposition lambasts him for refusing to take responsibility or allow an independent inquiry into the Hamas attacks that killed around 1,200 people. Netanyahu's chief opponent, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza. Sources close to Eisenkot say he sees his main mission as replacing the man he holds responsible for allowing the Oct. 7 attacks. 🔎 Zoom in: Netanyahu blames the deep state, claiming his security chiefs kept him in the dark. His political and media allies have even spread conspiracy theories implying that those officials betrayed Israel. But recent reporting suggests Netanyahu had at least some warning. Israeli outlet Haaretz reported that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) told Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation days before the attack. Three knowledgeable sources confirm to Axios that UAE intelligence gave a general warning to its Israeli counterparts and that MBZ spoke to Netanyahu to make sure he received it. Netanyahu denies receiving the UAE warning and has sued several media outlets and journalists that reported he had. Between the lines: The vote could determine not just Netanyahu's political survival, but his legal future as well. Losing power would also mean losing any levers to delay or influence an ongoing corruption trial. But if he wins, Netanyahu could argue he was acquitted by the people of Israel and take stronger action to thwart the proceedings. 👀 The intrigue: President Trump could give Netanyahu a boost by endorsing him, but so far he's declined. Trump has privately blamed Netanyahu for the Oct. 7 failures, according to two people who have discussed the matter directly with the president. He's also mused about Netanyahu damaging Israel's international reputation. However, Trump has stuck close to Netanyahu during the war in Iran and may still endorse him.

[phkrause]

Scoop: Bibi begs Trump for more support

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opponent Gadi Eisenkot campaign ahead of tomorrow's Israeli elections. Photos: Getty Images

Axios' Barak Ravid writes from Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — fighting for political survival in tomorrow's elections — has pleaded with President Trump in recent days to show more public support for his campaign, according to a U.S. source with knowledge and an Israeli source briefed on the matter. Why it matters: The U.S. source said the White House sees Netanyahu's aggressive lobbying as a "sign of desperation" and an indication that the Israeli leader thinks he's trailing. 👀 Behind the scenes: The U.S. source said Netanyahu spoke with Trump twice in the last three days and asked him to double down on his Truth Social post last week endorsing him. The source said Netanyahu even suggested language for additional statements of support. An Israeli source briefed on Netanyahu's efforts said the Israeli prime minister proposed that Trump hold calls with Israeli reporters to express further support. Last night, Trump issued another statement endorsing Netanyahu and calling on Israelis to vote for him, mainly because of his hawkish position on Iran. 🧮 State of play: Three major Israeli television networks released their final pre-election polls Friday, all showing Netanyahu's coalition falling well short of a parliamentary majority.

[phkrause]

• 🇮🇱 Israelis head to the polls tomorrow in an election that could upend Israeli politics and reset the country's strained relationships abroad. More from Barak Ravid.

🇮🇱 Netanyahu's moment of truth

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Ilia Yefimovich/pool/AFP via Getty Images and Erik Marmor/Getty Images

Axios' Barak Ravid writes from Tel Aviv: Israeli polls opened at 1 a.m. ET for one of the most consequential elections in the country's history — with rival camps warning that victory for the other would put Israel's future in jeopardy. Why it matters: The election is yet another referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership and the path he's taken the country down over the past four years. It's Israeli voters' first chance to hold Netanyahu accountable for the security failures that led to the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks — or to reward him for what he claims were unprecedented military successes in the three years of war since. If Netanyahu and his far-right coalition win, they're likely to renew the war with Iran in an effort to topple its regime, intensify their crackdown on Israel's democratic institutions and move to end Netanyahu's corruption trial. 👀 Behind the scenes: Netanyahu spent weeks trying to persuade President Trump to give him a green light to strike Iran ahead of the elections. Trump did not go along. In the 72 hours before the elections, Netanyahu tried to order the Israel Defense Forces to take steps to lay the ground for a potential new military strike or take actions short of an overt attack, Israeli officials say. IDF chief of staff General Eyal Zamir refused to comply. He warned that such a strike could lead to a miscalculation that quickly escalated hostilities and potentially forced the elections to be called off, the officials said. The other side: Netanyahu's main opponent, former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, ran on holding Netanyahu accountable for the Oct. 7 failure, forming a national commission of inquiry and drafting ultra-Orthodox men to strengthen the IDF after three years of war. How Israel's elections work.

[phkrause]

Voters in Israel are deciding whether to oust Netanyahu after 3 years of war Israelis are voting in a pivotal election Tuesday as their country is embroiled in unresolved wars, still reeling from Hamas’ 2023 attack and deeply divided over the character of the state and the right person to lead it. Read more.

What to know: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing off against an array of parties seeking to oust the longtime leader from power. Opinion polls have suggested a tight race with his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Over 7 million people are eligible to vote.   In Israel’s fragmented parliamentary politics, no single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority, so political leaders must forge coalitions.   There is a chance that neither Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist coalition nor the group of parties looking to remove him has enough support to win a parliamentary majority. That could set off weeks of negotiations before a leader is declared.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Live updates: Israelis head to the polls in first elections since Oct. 7 attack   Polls suggest a tight race between Netanyahu and his main rival. Here’s what to know as Israel votes   A look at the main issues in Israeli elections seen as a referendum on Netanyahu   Opponents accuse Netanyahu of stoking tensions with Iran before Israel’s election   UN-commissioned experts say Gaza ceasefire has not stopped Israel from committing genocide   PHOTOS: Israel prepares to vote as Netanyahu faces a tight fight to stay in power

[phkrause]

Israel is holding its most important election in years

(Reuters)

Voting is underway in Israel’s first election since the October 7 Hamas attack three years ago. The election is widely considered a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership and a defining moment in his political career. Former military chief and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu’s main challenger. Most polls put Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud-led bloc at 49 to 55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority needed in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

+ Read more: Polls open in Israel + Who is Gadi Eisenkot?

+ Background: What happened on October 7, 2023?

[phkrause]

Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated Anxious Israelis watched election results take shape Wednesday after the highest turnout in over a quarter-century, as no clear winner emerged and weeks of negotiating could lie ahead for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and an array of opposition parties trying to unseat him. Read more.

What to know: Voting reflected unease over Netanyahu's alliance with the far right and anger over military draft exemptions for the significant ultra-Orthodox Jewish population. Exit polls by major Israeli TV stations suggested Netanyahu’s governing coalition shrank but that his Likud party would remain the largest in the Knesset.   Arab-led parties appear to have made a historic showing, but it’s not clear if other opponents of Netanyahu’s government would form a coalition with them for a majority in the next parliament.

[phkrause]

Twin victory speeches

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, waves an Israeli flag onstage following the release of the first exit poll in Israel's general election in Tel Aviv last night. Photo: Ariel Schalit/AP Axios' Barak Ravid reports from Tel Aviv: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition was running nearly even with Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc as vote counting continued today — but both are short of a 61-seat majority. Why it matters: Political stalemate is the most likely outcome of yesterday's historic election, with Netanyahu weakened but neither side having a clear path to forming a coalition government. Weeks of negotiating could lie ahead. Arab parties are poised to win 18 to 19 seats in what would be an unprecedented electoral achievement. Theoretically, Eisenkot's bloc could try to swear in a minority government supported by the two Arab parties. But that looks unlikely. 📊 State of play: A close outcome could leave the country in a state of limbo, with Netanyahu likely staying on as a caretaker prime minister at the helm of the executive branch and the opposition led by Eisenkot controlling the Knesset. That scenario could last until new elections, possibly as early as April. The two sides could try to break the deadlock by forming a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. But that's improbable, since none of the opposition parties will agree to sit in a Netanyahu-led government. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at an election-night rally in Jerusalem. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images 🔎 Zoom in: Eisenkot claimed victory in a speech after midnight Israeli time. He said if Netanyahu was a "decent leader," he'd leave the political stage after the public voted for change. Eisenkot alluded to the possibility that the prime minister would launch military action before a new government is seated. "Netanyahu, don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs," Eisenkot said. After 3 a.m. Israeli time, Netanyahu took the stage and also claimed victory: "We are still waiting for the official election results. Likud is the largest party in Israel. The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public and among the Jewish population as a whole."

[phkrause]

Exit polls show deadlock

Israel’s elections produced no clear winner Tuesday night, exit polls showed, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot within reach of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. The final vote count is expected to take a few days.

+ Video: No clear winner emerges in crucial Israel election

+ Analysis: Netanyahu defiant despite falling short of clear victory

[phkrause]

What's next for Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu addresses supporters at an election night rally. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral coalition has opened a sizable lead over Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc with 85% of the vote counted, Axios' Barak Ravid reports from Tel Aviv. Still, neither bloc will clear a 61-seat majority. That sets the stage for weeks of wrangling over the country's next government. 🗳️ Netanyahu will emerge from the election down but not out. His bloc is on pace to secure 53 seats — 11 fewer than he currently commands. Eisenkot's bloc trails with 48 seats, leaving both men without a clear mandate to lead the government. Eisenkot could theoretically swear in a government with the support of Arab parties — which are on track to secure a record 19 seats — yet that's highly unlikely. Gadi Eisenkot waves an Israeli flag at an election night rally. Photo: Tomer Neuberg/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images 🤳 President Trump told Axios in a brief interview today that at first he received "horror reports" about Netanyahu's prospects. But, Trump added, "he's in pretty good shape now." Trump said: "I heard my endorsement made a big difference for Bibi." Asked whether he'll get involved in efforts to form a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump said he hadn't thought about it. He said: "I will take a look." 🪖 What's next: There are 500,000 votes left to count, from soldiers, diplomats, prisoners and others who voted outside their designated area. They could slightly shift the blocs' seat totals, or the allotment of seats within each bloc. But they are unlikely to change the overall balance of power. Keep reading.