Price's on Goods

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😖 Charted: Americans' record-sour mood

Data: University of Michigan. Chart: Sara Wise/Axios Across major recent surveys of self-reported well-being, Americans say they're pretty miserable. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey's preliminary reading for April — released yesterday — fell 11%, to 47.6. If those numbers hold when the full data comes out at the end of the month, it would be the lowest on record — below the previous low reading of 50 at the peak of Biden-era inflation, Axios' chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Other recent reports capture a souring mood: 💼 Small business optimism fell for a second consecutive quarter this week, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index. Just 28% of small-business owners said the U.S. economy is in good health — down 10 points from the previous quarter. 😞 The U.S. is 23rd in the World Happiness Report this year, down from 15th three years ago. The big picture: Three methodologically distinct surveys are all flashing the same warning. Americans aren't just anxious about inflation or the job market. They're unhappy, full stop. Explore the Michigan data.

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Doomers and boomers

On top of everything else pummeling consumers right now — spiking gas prices, rising grocery bills, an uncertain job market — there’s a wild card lurking in a shadowy corner of corporate finance that could pile on even more pain.

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😡 Who's getting blamed for prices

Data: ROKK Solutions. Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios In an election-year warning for Republicans and corporations alike, resounding majorities of midterm voters are laying blame for rising costs at their feet, according to a new survey from ROKK Solutions. The poll found that 73% blame Trump and his administration for rising prices. The same share also blames large corporations. That sentiment extends beyond the traditional partisan fault lines: 57% of Republicans blame Trump and 55% blame congressional Republicans. Independents (78%) are hardest on big companies. 🔨 63% of those surveyed expressed support for increasing corporate taxes. Explore the data.

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Maybe a staycation?

Conflicts abroad are reshaping daily life far beyond the front lines. Rising airfares, along with other factors, are making that dream destination trip soar further out of reach.

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⛽ Gas prices highest in 4 years

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Ben Geman/Axios AAA's national average price of a gallon of regular gas hit $4.18 this morning, up 6¢ from yesterday and 20¢ from a month ago. That's the peak since April 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. 🛢️ Crude oil futures are at their highest levels in weeks amid the absence of a diplomatic endgame that frees up the Strait of Hormuz, Axios' Ben Geman and Chuck McCutcheon report. The soaring costs, combined with a spike in gasoline prices, mean further political pain for President Trump and fellow Republicans. 📈 The global benchmark Brent crude hovered at around $112 a barrel this morning, a 4% hike. West Texas Intermediate topped $101 a barrel, up nearly 5%. 🇦🇪 NEW: The UAE is leaving OPEC after more than 50 years — a blow to the powerful alliance of Big Oil producers. Get the latest.

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⛽ Charted: GOP's gas pump problem

Data: Brookings Institution. Chart: Ben Geman/Axios People in GOP congressional districts tend to drive farther, which could worsen the party's midterm woes as fuel costs soar, Axios' Ben Geman writes from a new Brookings analysis. Several swing states — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania — have gas prices above the national average. 🚨 New warning: GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan, a widely cited gas price expert, predicts the national average price at the pump will hit $4.50 a gallon within a week (currently $4.30). De Haan warns especially about the Great Lakes region — Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin — where he says retailers are getting "absolutely obliterated" by surging wholesale prices.

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🛢️ Oil prices hit wartime high

Data: AAA. Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Oil prices reached their highest levels since the Iran war began, with Brent crude topping $126 per barrel this morning before pulling back, Axios' Ben Geman reports. The jump will keep pushing U.S. gasoline prices higher amid the possibility of a long stalemate that keeps the Strait of Hormuz throttled. ⛽️ The nationwide average price for a gallon of regular gas is $4.30 as of this morning. That's up 7¢ from yesterday, and up nearly 30¢ in a week and over a dollar more than a year ago, per AAA. Interactive map.

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Summer travel blues

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios Skyrocketing oil prices amid the Iran war threaten to disrupt this year's summer travel season, Axios' Rebecca Falconer reports. Airfares are up 20% from 2025. Flight and hotel bookings are dipping. ⚽️ Even World Cup demand looks shaky, with hotels in some host cities cutting prices. Virginia Tech tourism professor Mahmood Khan tells Axios that some people may decide to travel domestically "rather than going far away from home." Khan adds: "People are very hesitant to make long-term bookings." 🤑 Jet fuel prices have surged from around $90 per barrel before the war to over $200. The average international airfare soared from nearly $780 prewar to almost $1,100 by mid-April, per Kayak. The average domestic ticket jumped from $335 to $358. Recent flight bookings from the U.S. to Europe for July are down 10.5% year over year, says aviation data firm Cirium. 🇺🇸 What's next: The U.S. has plenty of oil, helping insulate it from the global energy mess — but only to a point. Henry Harteveldt, an airline analyst with Atmosphere Research Group, tells Axios: "Expensive jet fuel prices are here to stay until there is a lasting resolution to the war with Iran, and we see Gulf oil production and deliveries start getting close to normal levels." Go deeper.

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How a weaker dollar is quietly making life more expensive A hidden force is quietly pushing up costs for everything from your summer vacation to your weekly grocery bills: a weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar has fallen about 10% against other major currencies since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, a pullback potentially playing a role in Americans’ concerns about affordability. Trump has suggested a strong dollar puts the U.S. at a disadvantage and that a weak dollar helps American industry. Read more.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Spirit Airlines shuts down as company says it can't keep up with higher oil prices Trump likes the idea of the government owning some US companies but took a pass on Spirit Airlines Landlords want to be paid for pandemic losses and hope to reach a deal with the Trump administration Listen: Stories of financial strain — and the advice helping people work through it

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✈️ Charted: Airfares take off

Data: Kayak. Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios The Iran war's fuel shock is hitting airfares hard: The average domestic round-trip economy ticket costs 24% more than last spring and is 26% higher than in January, according to Kayak data. International flights from the U.S. are up 16% over last year. 👀 What we're watching: The downfall of Spirit is casting a spotlight on the future of Frontier Airlines, which faces many of the same challenges as its former budget-carrier rival, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes. More on Frontier.

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High prices

From groceries to gas to rent, rising prices are straining household budgets, and many people feel it's harder to get ahead — or even just stay afloat. A new CNN poll finds 76% of Americans say higher prices are their biggest financial problem, though some are cautiously optimistic that relief may be on the horizon. Read more.

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⚡️ Catch me up

Data: AAA. Map: Sara Wise/Axios ⛽️ Steep gas prices and airfares have many Americans scaling back Memorial Day and summer travel plans. People are traveling but finding ways to do it cheaper, including shorter trips and tweaking destinations. Today's national average: $4.56/gallon. Interactive map ... Go deeper.

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🍫 Chocolate lovers can't get a break

Data: FactSet. Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios Wholesale cocoa prices have plunged 70% from their late 2024 peak — but don't expect cheaper chocolate anytime soon, Axios' Matt Phillips reports. Hershey recently told analysts that, despite the drop in cocoa, the company sees "no change in the pricing environment." 🤑 Companies typically don't cut prices unless competition or economic conditions force their hands. They also like to make up for lost ground when their input prices fall. 🌴 Allison Kleinfelter, head of communications at Hershey, tells Axios: "We absorbed unprecedented cocoa costs for two years before taking pricing in 2025 that didn't fully cover those costs." "Cocoa markets remain volatile and elevated, and our plan is to recover those costs over the next few years while keeping our brands affordable and accessible." Go deeper.

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Summer travel just got pricier
If you're driving somewhere this Memorial Day, there's a good chance that higher gas prices are already part of the trip. For the first time since 2022, the average price of gas in all 50 states has surged past $4 a gallon, according to AAA. In South Carolina alone, drivers are paying an average of $4.16 a gallon this holiday weekend — up sharply from $2.76 a year ago, data shows. That's largely because the war with Iran is destabilizing global energy markets, sending fuel costs higher despite emergency actions from the Trump administration designed to contain the fallout.

Jet fuel prices have also surged as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively choked off for nearly three months, driving up airline costs and contributing to higher airfares heading into the busy summer travel season. Industry experts recommend booking early and planning ahead — not just because of the war, but because prices will likely remain elevated as the US gears up for its 250th anniversary celebrations and the influx of travel tied to the upcoming World Cup.

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Skipping meals

A new report warned of a “remarkable” increase in the number of Americans who are struggling to put food on the table. They’re eating less to save money, and more are receiving donations or federal nutrition assistance.

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Tomatoes become latest symbol of America’s affordability squeeze Prices for tomatoes are up 40%, more than any other food product over the past year. Experts say the spike is the result of crop yields, the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs. Read more.

Why this matters: The war spiked gas prices and increased shipping costs. Meanwhile, the U.S. withdrew from a deal allowing duty-free imports of tomatoes from Mexico, which grows most of America's supply. Tomatoes were slapped with a 17% tariff.   As the cost trickles down, outraged consumers are voicing their displeasure online, but the impact has been most pronounced for businesses that rely on tomatoes as a key ingredient in their kitchens. Wayne Humphrey, chief operating officer of Snarf’s Sandwiches, which operates dozens of stores in Colorado, Missouri and Texas, says tomatoes will cost him an additional $1.7 million annually.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ About 8% of the country lacked health insurance in 2025, new data shows. That could rise next year

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Consumers alter spending habits as gas prices strain their budgets U.S. consumers haven’t stopped spending money since the Iran war drove up fuel prices, but many shoppers are reassessing what they buy and where, according to company executives and retail analysts. Read more.

Why this matters: Location intelligence company Placer.ai saw reduced foot traffic at clothing, electronics and home furnishing stores, and more trips to grocery stores and dollar stores. Executives from American mainstays like Walmart, McDonald's and Dollar General cited overall shopper resilience as well as noticeable cutbacks by lower-income customers.   The U.S. Commerce Department reported last week that higher prices, not more purchases, accounted for most of the growth in Americans’ spending in April.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ The US job market is strong but many Americans are still frustrated by prospects and rising prices   Rising gas prices could mean pricier summer for US boaters  ps:Actually gas prices were coming down, but came right back up to 3.999 today!!

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Higher prices for gas, groceries and flights will outlast the Iran war, experts say Even after oil starts flowing again from the Middle East, it could take a while for consumers to see a difference at local fuel pumps, supermarkets and other places they shop, according to economists and industry analysts. Read more.

Why this matters: Drivers can expect some gas price relief, but not immediately. Refineries typically pay for crude oil a month or more in advance, so even after oil prices drop, they won’t immediately be processing cheaper products.   Fighting over the Strait of Hormuz disrupted not only supplies of crude and refined fuel but also the supply chains for fertilizer, food and even footwear. “We’re likely still looking at inflationary pressure on food in the coming months,” said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University. “There’s still a good deal of uncertainty about how the reopening will unfold, and it will take time for fuel, diesel and retail fertilizer prices to come back down.”

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US gas prices dip below $4 for 1st time since March but remain 25% higher than last year

NEW YORK (AP) — The average U.S. price for a gallon of gas fell below $4 on Thursday, hitting a level not seen since the first full month of the war with Iran and providing a bit of relief to consumers squeezed by soaring costs.

https://apnews.com/article/gas-iran-trump-aaa-72d8e7d7c9dcd0795c37a51864fce8a6?