Congress: The Senate & The House

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🗳️ GOP scandals expand Dem map

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Four scandal-plagued House Republicans whose seats should be gimmes for the GOP have instead turned their races into unexpected battlegrounds, Axios' Kate Santaliz and Andrew Solender write. Why it matters: These aren't districts you'd expect to be in play — Donald Trump carried all four comfortably in 2024. But ethical troubles by incumbents are making Republicans spend time and money defending the seats — in a cycle where neither party has any room for error. 1. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) dropped his reelection bid after the Ethics Committee found he violated House rules by sexually harassing female aides and creating a hostile work environment. The race was shifted to "toss-up" last week by Sabato's Crystal Ball, even before the ethics report was released. Trump won Edwards' district by 9.5 points last cycle. 2. Max Miller (R-Ohio) is accused of assaulting his ex-wife and their child, allegations he denies. Even Trump expressed doubts to Miller that he can win, Axios reported this week. But he's been defiant amid calls for him to drop out. 3. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) remains under an active Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that center on domestic abuse, stolen valor and financial misconduct, all of which he denies. Trump won Mills' district by 13 points in 2024, but Mills is facing a tough primary fight. 4. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) had his phone seized by the FBI in 2024 as part of an investigation into his campaign finances. The Justice Department dropped the case after Trump returned to office last year. Keep reading.

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Fauci vote

A Senate panel is set to vote today on whether to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress after he repeatedly declined to answer questions during a contentious hearing last week on Covid-19. Ahead of the vote, the panel's chair, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, obtained a copy of Fauci's former iPhone from the Department of Health and Human Services. Johnson said he hopes the device will answer questions Fauci refused to address. Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times during last week's hearing, which Republicans had hoped would open him up to claims of perjury.

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👟 Thune's race to the finish

Senate Republicans are racing toward the August recess with a legislative to-do list worthy of a Joe Rogan podcast: crypto, college sports and hemp.

Why it matters: They likely won't get to all of it, but the White House wants the Senate to get caught trying.

• 🏈 First, senators want to get way ahead of any government shutdown fight. Just as important — an NIL rights bill, with ESPN's first College GameDay set for Sept. 5.
• "I've kind of stacked these things: funding the government, the [Todd] Blanche nomination and the 74 nominations," Senate Majority Leader John Thune said today on Fox News, previewing his agenda.
• Then come "Russia sanctions, NIL, market structure," he added, rounding out a short list of issues that animate young men, who are the backbone of the MAGA coalition.

👀 What to watch: Thune is still weighing whether and how to force another vote on the SAVE Act or similar election security legislation — even though it's expected to fall well short of the 60 votes needed to advance.

• "We'll figure out a way to get yet another vote on the Save America Act," Thune told Fox, "but I don't expect the Democrats to change their view."
• The vote would give Republicans another opportunity to put Democrats on the record opposing a voter ID measure that Thune has called an "80-20 issue."
• ⚡️ It might also help appease President Trump and his allies in the Senate who are insisting the Senate stay in town until election integrity is addressed.

🎧 What we're hearing: If T.S. Eliot covered Congress, he'd decide August is the cruelest month, breeding cloture votes for senators who just want to catch a flight.

• Some senators remain hopeful for a last-minute deal that would allow Thune to clear the deck and send everyone home tomorrow.
• As of this evening, however, the prospect of the Senate working into the weekend remained a real possibility.

The intrigue: One major sticking point is crypto and the CLARITY Act, which would provide the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets.

• Democrats are reluctant to grant Republicans an initial procedural vote on the market-structure bill, arguing it could short-circuit bipartisan negotiations and reduce pressure on GOP leaders to come to the table.
• They are also worried that a failed vote could unlock millions in crypto super PAC money.

🔥 Zoom in: Republicans also remain divided over hemp, threatening to complicate passage of the stopgap spending bill.

• Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) continues to insist on a vote to strip language, inserted at the White House's urging, that would delay implementation of a ban on certain intoxicating hemp products.

— Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight

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💬 Miller's decision calculus

Denounced on social media and by fellow Republicans, Ohio Rep. Max Miller is telling allies he's not quitting for a simple reason: It would be tantamount to admitting he beat his ex-wife and their child, which he denies.

🤔 Why it matters: The Washington summer scandal is a case study in whether Miller — one of Donald Trump's understudies — can successfully employ the president's playbook of never backing down and never quitting.

• Trump has publicly expressed sympathy for Miller but privately expressed doubts about his viability.
• 📢 The calls to resign have mounted, especially in the Senate, where Miller's ex-father-in-law, Ohio's Bernie Moreno, serves.
• Moreno's fellow Ohio Republican, Sen. Jon Husted, called on him to quit today.

🔎 Zoom in: Miller allies say his critics are underestimating his resolve and the intensely personal dynamics of the vicious battle with his ex, Emily Moreno, involving their 2-year-old daughter.

• "If he quits, he's basically giving up," said a congressional colleague. "And if he gives up, it basically means he did it."

🌎 Zoom out: Though some have called for his expulsion from the House, Miller has told his colleagues it would set a terrible precedent because there's no evidence showing he hurt his ex or their child.

• "Here we are in the middle of a divorce proceeding, and I don't think he's even been charged with anything they're making the accusations of," said an ally, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.). "We're big on the Constitution, innocent till proven guilty, yet we're guilty until proven innocent, it seems right now with him."
• House Speaker Mike Johnson called the allegations against Miller "serious" in an interview with Politico on Tuesday but said lawmakers have to allow the Ethics Committee process to play out. "We don't take disciplinary action against members for allegations," Johnson said.
• Miller has released documents that he says show he was investigated for abuse but that the allegations were unfounded.

Yes, but: There's only so long a candidate can hang on if he's constantly denounced, attacked and looks increasingly un-electable.

• 🚨 Republicans privately expect that Miller will drop his reelection bid by the end of this week, according to two sources.

The intrigue: He, his ex and his father-in-law are now embroiled in a dispute over whether the representative held his daughter's blue bunny stuffed animal toy "hostage."

• Another Ohioan, Vice President JD Vance, has an unfriendly relationship with Miller but has pointedly kept quiet.

🗓️ What's next: According to the Ohio secretary of state office's election calendar, Monday is the last day a political party nominating committee can name a replacement for a candidate if he withdraws.

— Marc Caputo and Kate Santaliz

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Senate committee votes to hold Fauci in contempt for refusing to answer COVID questions A Senate committee voted along party lines Thursday, setting up a referral to the Justice Department for potential investigation over whether the country's longtime top infectious disease official properly exercised his constitutional rights. Read more.

Why this matters: The vote came a week after Dr. Anthony Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination more than 100 times. Fauci, in a statement last week, said he had good reason to fear the possibility of criminal charges.    Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, the committee chairman who pressed for the contempt finding, said that constitutional protection did not apply because Fauci last year received a pardon from Democratic President Joe Biden and thus did not have to worry about the threat of prosecution.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Fauci contempt vote reflects the enduring politics of COVID Tennessee voters oust Trump-backed congressman, set fall matchup for redrawn Memphis-area House seat McConnell says he’s leaving rehabilitation center to continue recovery at home Republican Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio says Rep. Max Miller should leave House and end fall campaign

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Blanche wins support for attorney general from GOP Sen. Cassidy, likely paving way for confirmation

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy said Friday that he will back Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general, likely paving the way for Blanche’s confirmation to lead President Donald Trump’s Justice Department.

https://apnews.com/article/murkowski-blanche-attorney-general-nomination-fund-trump-b0cc3ae3327648ad3cbbad9809040099?

Senate passes sweeping Russia sanctions bill negotiated by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate overwhelmingly approved a punishing Russian sanctions package Friday, the result of a yearlong campaign by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham to reinforce U.S. support for Ukraine and try to force President Vladimir Putin’s hand as the grinding war drags on.

https://apnews.com/article/senate-russia-sanctions-graham-tariffs-8d37498c3f27d96cae7da147250ebe9f?

ps:I'll believe when I hear trump signed this bill!!

Senate confirms Hamilton to lead FEMA and clears more than 70 other Trump nominees

The Senate on Friday confirmed Cameron Hamilton as head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, returning the former Navy SEAL to the embattled agency he led temporarily last year only to be fired after he publicly opposed eliminating it.

https://apnews.com/article/fema-cameron-hamilton-trump-disaster-aid-reforms-6743eb69461fc625d924396842056bba?

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Airlines Are Lobbying To Change Airfare Font Sizes. It’s Gonna Cost You.

For decades, buying a plane ticket hasn’t been a simple process. In the late 2000s, consumers were inundated with ads for special $79 or $99 flights, but were met with sticker shock when they went to buy the tickets and saw the true cost was actually much higher. 

https://www.levernews.com/airlines-are-lobbying-to-change-airfare-font-sizes-its-gonna-cost-you/?

Congress has long underfunded worker protection agencies. The Republican budget would deepen the damage.

On June 9, the Republican majority on the U.S. House Appropriations Committee approved a 2027 budget that slashes funding for worker protection agencies.

https://www.epi.org/blog/republican-budget-exacerbates-underfunding-of-worker-protection-agencies/?

ps:Just pitiful!!!!!

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✈️ Senate's great escape

Senate Republican leaders are tantalizingly close to a deal to take some uncomfortable votes in exchange for leaving town at a more comfortable hour.

Why it matters: President Trump won't like all of the outcomes, but senators don't plan to be around to hear about it.

• 👍 Winners: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to officially avoid a pre-election shutdown fight, set a new record for confirmed nominees, give Trump his attorney general and show GOP unity for a voter-ID bill to contrast with Democrats. He also finally passed new Russia sanctions.
• 👎 Losers: A budget resolution that passed the House — and has been the White House's priority — is expected to fail. The same fate awaits the voter-ID bill, which won't get the Democratic votes needed to reach 60. Plus, the crypto market-structure bill was delayed until September.
• 🔮 Mysteries: The fates of a hemp product ban and a name, image and likeness college sports bill were still unclear as of late this afternoon.

🎧 What we're hearing: All three items on the GOP Joe Rogan agenda we told you about last night — crypto, hemp and college sports — are wilting in the August heat.

• Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) defied the White House and held fast on his amendment to stop delaying a ban on certain hemp products. It has a real shot of passing.
• Thune punted an initial vote on the CLARITY Act late last night into September, weeks before an election that will make compromise more difficult.

The intrigue: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), despite his best efforts, can't quite convince some fellow Republicans who have lingering questions about his college sports legislation.

• 🏈 The bill would set national rules for how schools pay student-athletes and regulate NIL deals.
• "I want to make sure that this legislation doesn't either intentionally or unintentionally absolve the NCAA, which lacks testicles and a spine," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said.
• The White House Counsel's office is trying to get it across the line, issuing a memo on why the bill does not preempt state laws on transgender women in sports.

🔎 Zoom in: At a rare Friday lunch among Republican senators, the contours of a get-out-of-town deal began to emerge — though Thune was still working through some of the details late this afternoon.

• Senators are still trying to reach a time agreement on the stopgap funding package, but they have agreed to give Budd a vote on his hemp amendment at a 50-vote threshold.
• Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) introduced his budget resolution to kick off reconciliation 3.0. It would, among other things, provide money for the Pentagon to restock munitions used in Iran.
• But even with a 50-vote threshold, it's expected to fail because of GOP defections.
• Thune is trying to deflect MAGA anger over the Senate's failure to pass the SAVE America Act with a vote on a much narrower bill that would establish a national voter ID standard. But with a 60-vote threshold and no Democratic support, it's headed for defeat.

🧳 The bottom line: Nothing has been easy about getting out of town. Late yesterday, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) refused to agree to a time limit on the continuing resolution unless he received a vote on adjournment.

• But the way out of it is the same: taking a tough vote to catch an earlier flight.

— Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight

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Todd Blanche is narrowly confirmed as Trump’s attorney general in an overnight Senate vote

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general in a vote early Saturday, cementing the command of President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer at a Department of Justice that Trump has sought to bend to his will.

https://apnews.com/article/senate-blanche-attorney-general-justice-department-fcb4157d45d7b13a05de4d2b0f4f92e2?

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✏️ Midterm cheat sheet

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei asked for midterm previews by two top handicappers: Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider and former Axios campaign expert, and David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Senate Where it stands: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 independents caucusing with Dems (making 47 total). Democrats need: 4 flips to get to 51. Fifty isn't enough — the tiebreak is Republican. The call: Kraushaar: Dem +2. Wasserman: Dem +3. Why it matters: This mirrors what we're hearing from top Ds and Rs alike. Democrats will get close, but likely fall short of a majority. The big reason: They need to flip too many seats in too many GOP-friendly states like Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas. House Where it stands: 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 1 independent, 4 vacancies. Democrats need: net gain of 3 (against November's 435 seats, with the vacancies washed out) to reach 218, the majority. The call: Kraushaar: Dem +15-20. Wasserman: Dem +15. Why it matters: Republicans enjoy (and muscled through) a favorable map with way more Ds running in Trump-won districts than Rs in Harris-won districts. They then jammed through late redistricting changes that should hand them six to nine seats. Yet most top Republicans tell us there's an 80%+ chance they're toast, regardless.