Congress: The Senate & The House

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? Johnson majority cracks

House Speaker Mike Johnson's tiny majority is colliding head-on with 2026 campaigning, forcing GOP leaders to plead with rank-and-file members to show up.

Why it matters: One missed flight, sick day, or campaign stop can flip the outcome of a House vote.

• Republicans have a 218-213 majority, expected to shrink to 218-214 after a special election on Jan. 31.
• "It's dicey some days," Johnson told reporters. "I told everybody … 'no risk-taking, take vitamins and stay healthy and be here.'"
• Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) has privately warned members to miss votes only for life-or-death reasons. While that's long been the whip's posture, the message has taken a more serious tone this year, a source familiar told us.

Zoom in: GOP leaders had to summon Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) back to D.C. yesterday as Republicans teetered on a vote that would limit President Trump's authority to wage war in Venezuela.

• Johnson told reporters he had "expected" Hunt to be present this week.
• The vote sat open for nearly 30 minutes at 215–214 as members waited for Hunt to arrive from Dulles International Airport.
• Hunt was in the Capitol for about 10 minutes before getting in his car and hitting the road again.

The big picture: More than a dozen Republicans and Democrats running in contested primaries for higher office told us they're trying to prioritize votes over campaigning — though several acknowledged the trade-offs.

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told us she'll be here "as much as I can," but noted her day job is already getting in the way of her governorship ambitions.
• "I'll be here for important votes," Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), one of Mace's primary opponents, said.
• "I intend to be here for, you know, all the important votes, while recognizing that a necessity of running a Senate campaign is you have to spend a lot of time in Massachusetts," said Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass).

The other side: "I've been missing events in the state because this is my job. I'm not gonna miss votes," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who is running for Texas attorney general, told us.

• The presence of Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.), 80, who was at the Capitol in a neck brace and with extensive bruising on his face from a recent car accident, has become a quiet example for the conference.
• "I saw Jim Baird the other day — he literally just got out of the hospital from a major car wreck, and he was here doing his job," said Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.).

The bottom line: For some members, simply being in Washington has become part of their pitch to voters.

• "I am telling the people of Kentucky that the president needs me, and the speaker of the House needs me — and they've been very understanding about that," Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky), who is running to replace retiring Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), told us.
• "These other candidates like to talk about supporting the president," Barr added. "Well, I'm actually here voting with the president and doing the job I was elected to do, and I think that actually is an advantage for me."

Read more.

— Kate Santaliz and Andrew Solender

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? Chart: Most absent House lawmakers

Data: HouseClerk; Table: Jacque Schrag/Axios Republicans have made up a majority of the lawmakers with the most missed votes in 2026, according to House Clerk data. Two of those lawmakers are running for higher office, Reps. Hunt and Norman. The big picture: Most lawmakers on the list have been absent due to personal or medical issues, or deaths in the family. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) missed votes while recovering from surgery. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) missed votes while caring for his wife during a serious illness. Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) was away following the death of his wife. Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) missed votes around the birth of his child. — Andrew Solender and Kate Santaliz

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? The year of AI lobbying

Data: U.S. Senate. Chart: Axios Visuals AI didn't just increase its footprint in Washington in 2025. It swallowed tech lobbying whole, Axios' Ashley Gold reports in Axios AI+. Why it matters: AI's ubiquity, quick growth and role in U.S. global competitiveness have shifted how the biggest tech companies seek influence in D.C. ? Long-running fights over social media content and privacy have been eclipsed by national security and infrastructure debates around AI. In Washington, debates over how the most advanced frontier model companies, like OpenAI and Anthropic, should be regulated have been largely drowned out by the White House's desire to see them succeed. States, meanwhile, have taken the lead on AI safety policy. ? The intrigue: Industries that traditionally lobbied D.C. on other issues have pivoted to adapt to the age of AI. "Finance, health care, transportation, defense, education ... everyone suddenly has to take a position on AI, even if they never had a D.C. tech footprint," said Joseph Hoefer, principal and chief AI officer at public affairs firm Monument Advocacy. Go deeper ...

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Congress Votes Against Blocking Venezuela War After Stalling for Tardy GOP Rep

The House of Representatives narrowly defeated a resolution aimed at blocking further attacks on Venezuela after House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., held the poll open for a lengthy period to secure a final vote against it.

https://theintercept.com/2026/01/22/house-venezuela-war-vote-fails/?

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Democrats vow to oppose homeland security funds after Minnesota shooting as shutdown risk grows Democratic senators are vowing to oppose a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security following the shooting death of a 37-year-old Minnesota man, a stand that increases the prospect of a partial government shutdown by the end of the week. Read more.

Why this matters: Six of the 12 annual spending bills for the current budget year have been signed into law by President Donald Trump. Six more are awaiting action in the Senate, despite a revolt from House Democrats and mounting calls for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s impeachment.    If senators fail to act by midnight Friday, funding for Homeland Security and the other agencies covered under the six bills will lapse.   Republicans will need some Democratic support to pass the remaining spending bills in time to avoid a partial shutdown. That support was already in question after Renee Good, a mother of three, was fatally shot and killed earlier this month by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis. But the fatal shooting Saturday of Alex Pretti, an intensive care unit nurse, quickly prompted Democrats to take a more forceful stand. ps:I've heard this before and just like the trumplicans they fold at the last minute!!!!!

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Government shutdown

The chance of a partial federal government shutdown is growing as Senate Democrats fall in line behind a commitment to reject a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security. Hours after the latest deadly shooting by a federal officer in Minneapolis, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that Democrats won’t provide a key package the 60 votes it needs to advance if it includes the current DHS funding measure, which he called “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of (Immigrations and Customs Enforcement).” ICE is part of DHS. The deadline to fund the federal government is midnight on Friday.

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Democrats, White House strike spending deal that would avert government shutdown

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats and the White House struck a deal to avert a partial government shutdown and temporarily fund the Department of Homeland Security as they consider new restrictions for President Donald Trump’s surge of immigration enforcement. But passage was delayed late Thursday as leaders scrambled to win enough support for the agreement before the midnight Friday deadline.

https://apnews.com/article/senate-democrats-budget-shutdown-trump-homeland-security-5e6788e433e51399c8aa4399035aee22?

Midnight Funding Deadline

Senate Democrats and the White House struck a deal yesterday that could fund a large portion of the government through September. A spending bill must pass in the Senate and House before midnight today to avert a partial government shutdown.  The deal would separate Department of Homeland Security funding from the broader spending package, which includes increased funding for cancer research, air traffic controllers, and the military. Homeland Security would be funded at current levels until Feb. 13, as lawmakers continue negotiating restrictions on the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. Democrats outlined a series of demands after two Americans were fatally shot in Minneapolis this month, including requiring agents to remove face masks, obtain arrest warrants, and be subject to a uniform code of conduct. Last year’s record 43-day government shutdown—driven by a fight over expiring healthcare subsidies—ended after a small group of Democrats reached an agreement with Republicans to fund the government through today.

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⏰ New ICE deadline

Senate Democrats won two critical fights today, bringing the White House to the table on ICE with a fast deadline of two weeks.

• But now they've teed up sky-high expectations with the Democratic base by splitting Homeland Security spending away from the other funding bills. The shutdown deadline is this weekend.

Why it matters: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer talked a big game on denying ICE funding. He'll have 14 days to squeeze Trump for concessions, or be willing to shut down the government again.

• The agreement between Schumer and the White House did not include any specific commitments from the administration on the policy changes Democrats outlined this week.

Zoom in: Even within Schumer's own caucus, there is frustration that the party is giving the White House two weeks of funding for DHS to negotiate changes.

• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has spearheaded the effort to block DHS funding, told us tonight that he didn't think the extension of funding was necessary.
• "We have to have some urgency about what's happening in Minneapolis; people could die this weekend," Murphy said, referencing the two fatal shootings involving ICE agents in Minnesota this month. "I understand others want some additional time, so I am certainly listening to those arguments."

The big picture: Schumer's already feeling the fury of the Democratic grassroots — an encore from how they treated him after the end of the long shutdown fight last spring.

• "Leader Schumer should ask the Minnesotans who are watching their neighbors get killed in cold blood if a deal with no plan to stop ICE is enough right now," MoveOn spokesperson Britt Jacovich said in a statement today.

The bottom line: Trump called on all involved to pass this deal quickly. (See item No. 2).

• The Senate's on track to vote tonight, with the House expected to vote when they're back from recess.

— Stephen Neukam

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What the House wants

As the Senate prepares to kick government funding back to the House, Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down another revolt from his right flank.

Why it matters: While removing DHS funding was not Johnson's preferred approach, most members want to avoid a shutdown.

• But on top of a lengthy list of demands from Democrats around ICE, expect an even longer one from the House Freedom Caucus, centering on sanctuary cities, immigration enforcement and border security.

What's next: Conservatives would need to vote for a rule — a party-line procedural vote — to advance the bill.

• Freedom Caucus members have repeatedly shown a willingness to tank or threaten rules, using them as leverage to extract concessions from leadership.
• If it's clear Johnson won't be able to muscle the rule through, the speaker could bring it up under suspension, but that would require significant backing from House Democrats, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
• Predicted one House Democrat: "If Hakeem says he is backing it, [it] will give enough people cover."

For now, Johnson does not plan to call the House back into session over the weekend, citing attendance issues, a leadership source told us.

The bottom line: "We may inevitably be in a short shutdown situation," Johnson told USA Today tonight at the "Melania" premiere. "But the House is going to do its job."

— Kate Santaliz and Andrew Solender

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⏳ The no-rush impeachment

More than 80% of House Democrats support impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, but a vote may not come any time soon.

Why it matters: Democrats can force a vote whenever they want, but Jeffries made it clear today he and his caucus are going to take their time and let a careful investigation play out first.

• "We don't want a show vote. We want a successful vote," Jeffries told reporters at a press conference.
• The Democratic leader pointed to the discharge petitions his party led last year — on releasing the Epstein files, protecting collective bargaining rights for federal workers and extending Affordable Care Act tax credits — as the model for how he is proceeding.

Between the lines: What "impeachment proceedings" mean in practice, Jeffries suggested, is an investigation led by House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) that will precede any impeachment vote.

• "Jamie Raskin ... made clear how he thought things should proceed in reference to this current version of the Kelly resolution as a foundation for the investigative work that needs to take place to ensure we are presenting the strongest possible articles," Jeffries said.

The bottom line: Jeffries indicated he doesn't want a repeat of the two Trump impeachment votes that Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) forced last year, both of which failed due to bipartisan opposition.

• Any successful impeachment vote would require not only unanimous support from Democrats but also at least a handful of GOP votes.
• "We know how to move Republicans over to our position," Jeffries said, noting that each of the discharge petitions last year had GOP support.

— Andrew Solender

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⏱️ Shutdown comes down to wire

A deal to avert the partial government shutdown at midnight tonight is coming down to the wire, Axios' Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols report.

• Last-minute hiccups stopped Senate Democrats from quickly advancing a deal negotiators reached with the White House yesterday, and senators were sent home without a vote.

🏛️ The deal would allow the Senate Democrats to separate the fight over ICE funding and pass a stopgap measure to continue current funding for DHS for two weeks.

• Those demands include barring federal agents from wearing masks and requiring that they wear body cameras, along with a ban on roving patrols and tighter use of warrants.

🔎 Between the lines: If negotiators fail to reach a deal over ICE and DHS, funding would also cease for the Coast Guard, TSA and FEMA.

• The House, which isn't in session until Monday, will also need to pass the package before it can head to President Trump.

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Senate leaders scramble to avert partial government shutdown Senate leaders were working to win enough support for a bipartisan spending deal that would prevent a partial government shutdown at midnight Friday as Democrats have demanded new restrictions on federal immigration raids across the country. Read more.

Why this matters: The standoff has threatened to plunge the country into another shutdown, just two months after Democrats blocked a spending bill over expiring federal health care subsidies. That dispute closed the government for 43 days as Republicans refused to negotiate.   Democrats struck a rare deal with President Donald Trump on Thursday to separate funding for the Homeland Security Department from a broad government spending bill and fund it for two weeks, while Congress debates curbs on the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. The deal came as irate Democrats had vowed to vote against the entire spending bill and trigger a shutdown in the wake of the deaths of two protesters at the hands of federal agents in Minneapolis.   But supporters of the deal need to round up enough votes to pass it. Trump encouraged members of both parties to cast a “much needed Bipartisan ‘YES’ vote.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said there were “snags on both sides.”

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US Senate Dems demand mask ban, body camera requirement, IDs for immigration agents

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Democrats on Wednesday detailed the “common sense” changes they want to implement for federal immigration enforcement, saying reforms must be added to a funding package that needs to become law before the weekend to avoid a partial government shutdown. 

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/01/29/repub/us-senate-dems-demand-mask-ban-body-camera-requirement-ids-for-immigration-agents/?

Senate passes Trump-backed government funding deal, sending to House

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate voted Friday to fund most of the government through the end of September while carving out a temporary extension for Homeland Security funding, giving Congress two weeks to debate new restrictions on federal immigration raids across the country.

https://apnews.com/article/congress-budget-immigration-trump-homeland-security-39fd7917e39aaf9e4e78e89f3449a587?

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🚨 New Dem reliance

House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to pass the two-headed appropriations bill under "suspension" — a parliamentary procedure that will require Democratic support — now that it finally passed the Senate on a 71-29 vote.

Why it matters: The shutdown technically begins at midnight. President Trump has been clear that he does not want one.

• Johnson was on notice that conservatives were not in the mood to negotiate.
• "I am a hard no and will never vote for this," Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said on X.
• Luna is demanding that House leaders attach the SAVE Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections, to the spending package as a condition of her support.

Driving the news: In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune needed unanimous consent to bring the compromise package to the floor.

• Johnson is choosing a path Thune didn't have: losing dozens of his own members.
• It's a short-term strategy expected to keep a government shutdown brief and relatively painless.
• But its long-term consequences could ripple across his conference.

Flashback: Then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy's decision to pass a short-term funding bill with help from Democrats in September 2023 triggered a movement to oust him.

What we're watching: The suspension path, requiring a two-thirds majority that's roughly 288 votes, also carries unknowns for Johnson, and he could need as many as 100 Democratic votes.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been noncommittal about supporting the package, and many progressives are lining up to vow they'll vote "no."

Zoom out: Suspensions on continuing resolutions were more common during the Biden era. But for Johnson, choosing the suspension option marks a first in this Congress for a controversial piece of legislation.

• Working with Trump, Johnson has defied his critics. On vote after vote, Johnson has found ways to find victory when defeat seemed certain.
• Now, he'll be relying on Democratic votes, effectively sidelining hardline conservatives who wanted to negotiate a better deal.

— Hans Nichols, Stephen Neukam and Kate Santaliz

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Jeffries vs. expulsion

Jeffries voiced stern opposition today to a Republican-led effort to expel from Congress Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), who faces federal charges of financial misconduct.

• "The congresswoman is, of course, entitled to the presumption of innocence. She's going through the process right now," Jeffries said when we asked if he plans to actively oppose the expulsion vote.
• "Any effort to expel her lacks any basis, at this moment, in law, fact or the Constitution," he said.

The big picture: Expulsion requires a two-thirds majority to pass, and Jeffries' opposition likely forecloses the possibility of enough Democrats joining Republicans to push it through.

• Cherfilus-McCormick was indicted in November by a federal grand jury for allegedly laundering a $5 million COVID contract overpayment the Florida government made to her family's health care company and funneling much of the money into her congressional campaign.
• A spokesperson for Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.), who is leading the expulsion effort, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: Some Democrats may break away, but this is not like in 2023, when rank-and-file Republicans who were at the end of their rope with then-Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) defied their leadership and voted to expel him.

— Andrew Solender

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💰 Johnson's big number

Speaker Johnson, who turned 54 today, got to celebrate as his House GOP campaign brought in $24.3 million in the last quarter of 2025.

• The NRCC raised $117.2 million on the year, we scooped today

Why it matters: That fundraising haul surpasses every recent off-year except for 2021, when Democrats had full control of Washington.

• The NRCC also outraised the DCCC in the last quarter and finished the year with slightly more cash on hand. It's the first time Republicans have had an edge since 2015.
• "House Republicans are entering 2026 with undeniable momentum and smashing fundraising records," NRCC chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said in a statement to us.

— Kate Santaliz

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🏛️ Partial (and short) shutdown begins

A pile of snow and ice outside the Capitol yesterday. Photo: Kylie Cooper/Reuters The Senate passed legislation last evening to separate the fight over ICE funding from the threat of a broader government shutdown, Axios' Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols report. It's a major step toward resolving the partial government shutdown that began at midnight— but leaves open questions about Democrats' ability to force changes at ICE parent agency DHS. The package, which passed 71-29, funds non-DHS programs through Sept. 30 and continues DHS funding at its current level for two weeks. Five Republicans and 24 Democrats voted "no." The House still needs to pass the package, with a vote expected Monday evening. So there'll be a technical shutdown this weekend. Democrats' demands include barring federal agents from wearing masks and requiring that they wear body cameras — plus a ban on roving patrols and tighter use of warrants. Keep reading.

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🏛️ Johnson's shutdown crisis

With the government partly shut down until a House vote tomorrow, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned Speaker Mike Johnson yesterday: Don't count on Democratic votes to end the shutdown.

• Why it matters: Johnson may instead be forced to get virtually all of his members to vote for the funding legislation — a difficult task, as some GOP lawmakers are already raising strident objections.

Jeffries informed Johnson yesterday that Democratic votes won't be there to pass the bill in a bipartisan manner.

• Democrats are hesitant to support a two-week stopgap funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security that lacks reforms for ICE or Customs and Border Protection.

"The progressives are 'no' because of ICE funding and we want [Republicans] to carry the water," a House Democrat told Axios.

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What a swing House district in Colorado shows about Republicans’ immigration fallout in the midterms President Donald Trump’s immigration drive in Minnesota, and the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, has resonated across the farms, oil and gas rigs, and shopping centers of Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, a swing seat stretching northeast from Denver. The monthlong turmoil in Minnesota has reinforced the political views of some in the U.S. House district while making others reconsider their own. If such sentiments hold until the fall, that could imperil House Republicans who won their seats by narrow margins and could jeopardize the GOP’s full control of political power in Washington. Read more.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Democrat Christian Menefee wins election for US House, narrowing GOP’s slim majority Democrat Taylor Rehmet wins a reliably Republican Texas state Senate seat, stunning GOP Trump’s failed bid to elevate an Arab American ally shows cracks in his political coalition What to know about the partial government shutdown and its impact

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House Speaker faces tough choices as partial government shutdown drags on and debate over ICE deepens House Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to muscle a federal funding package to passage and prevent a prolonged partial government shutdown as debate intensifies over the Trump administration’s sweeping immigration enforcement operations. Read more.

What to know: Johnson signaled he is relying on help from President Donald Trump to ensure passage. Trump struck a deal with senators to separate funding for the Department of Homeland Security from a broader package. Under the plan approved by the Senate, DHS would be funded temporarily to Feb. 13, setting up a deadline for Congress to try to find consensus on new restrictions on ICE operations.   A first test will come on Monday during a committee meeting when Johnson will need his own GOP majority to advance the package after Democrats refused to provide the votes for speedy consideration. Johnson said he is hopeful work can wrap up for a full House vote, at least by Tuesday.   It is the second time in recent months that federal government operations have been disrupted as Congress is using the annual funding process as leverage to extract policy changes. This time, the administration has signaled its interest in more quickly resolving the shutdown. Johnson said he was in the Oval Office last week when Trump, along with border czar Tom Homan, spoke with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York to work out a deal on immigration enforcement changes.

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Clintons agree to testify in House Epstein investigation ahead of contempt of Congress vote

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agreed late Monday to testify in a House investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, but the Republican leading the probe said an agreement had not yet been finalized.

https://apnews.com/article/bill-clinton-jeffrey-epstein-house-574c68c0d02c6d6a7d58cd04933996b7?

Clintons agree to testify in House Epstein investigation ahead of contempt of Congress vote Former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agreed late Monday to testify in a House investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, but the Republican leading the probe said an agreement had not yet been finalized. Read more.

What to know: Attorneys for the Clintons requested that Rep. James Comer, the chair of the House Oversight Committee, agree not to move forward with the contempt proceedings. Comer, however, said he was not immediately dropping the charges, which would carry the threat of a substantial fine and even incarceration if passed by the House and successfully prosecuted by the Department of Justice. “The Clintons do not get to dictate the terms of lawful subpoenas,” Comer said.     Bill Clinton’s relationship with Epstein has reemerged as a focal point for Republicans amid the push for a reckoning over Epstein. He has not been accused of wrongdoing in his interactions with the late financier. The last-minute negotiating came as Republican leaders were advancing the contempt resolution through the House Rules Committee — a final hurdle before it headed to the House floor for a vote. It was potentially a grave moment for Congress, the first time it could hold a former president in contempt and advance the threat of prison time.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Government says it's fixing redactions in Epstein-related files that may have had victim information   FACT FOCUS: Images of NYC mayor with Jeffrey Epstein are AI-generated. Here's how we know   UK politician Peter Mandelson under scrutiny over alleged leaks to Jeffrey Epstein

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  Johnson's Trump assist

President Trump extracted two "yes" votes from a pair of GOP holdouts tonight, bringing House Speaker Mike Johnson closer to ushering a spending bill to the floor and ending the government shutdown.

• Why it matters: After meeting with Trump at the White House, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) returned to the House to say they're leaning toward voting "yes" on the "rule" to allow the funding bills to come to the floor.

🤝 In exchange, they said they received a promise that the Senate would vote on the SAVE Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.

• "There is something called a standing filibuster that would effectively allow [Senate Majority Leader John Thune] to put voter ID on the floor of the Senate," Luna said. "We are hearing that that is going well, and that he is considering that."
• "We want to vote on voter ID in the Senate, and I think we're going to get it."
• Johnson said tonight he thinks Republicans have the votes to pass a rule tomorrow, Politico reports.

What we're watching: For Trump and Johnson, there's more work to do, but some conservatives are already folding.

• Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) announced during a Rules Committee hearing today that he will "reluctantly" vote yes.

📞 And Trump is working the phones.

• "He's making individual calls, and he's all in," Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters.
• "I'm just told by the White House that they're working really hard to get the Republicans in the right place. And when they work hard, they tend to be successful."

📱 Trump's private pressure campaign mirrors his public calls to pass the Senate bill.

• "There can be NO changes at this time," Trump posted on Truth Social today, urging House Republicans and Democrats to support the package.
• "We all want the SAVE Act, but we have to look at the reality of the numbers here," Johnson told reporters today. "I don't think we need to be playing games with government funding."

Zoom out: Johnson is heading into yet another test of his speakership.

• His margins got even slimmer today when he swore in Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas), who won a special election Saturday. Now, the speaker only has a one-vote cushion.

Zoom in: Johnson's headaches won't end after tomorrow's rule vote.

• Freedom Caucus members want a seat at the negotiating table for the full-year DHS appropriations bill.
• Conservatives are rejecting ICE reforms that Democrats are pushing and want their own priorities included.
• That could pose a problem over the next two weeks as Congress scrambles to pass a full-year bill.

The bottom line: Yet again, Trump is whipping for votes, calling members and pressing for their votes.

— Hans Nichols and Kate Santaliz

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1 big thing: 👀 New shutdown fear

Senate Democrats are talking a big game on ICE. But behind closed doors, they're fixated on avoiding a broader fight over immigration.

Why it matters: After getting shellacked on the issue in 2024, Democratic leaders want to fight over law and order instead.

• "This isn't about trying to enact immigration reform," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), a member of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's leadership team, said yesterday.
• "All we're asking is that this federal law enforcement agency operate like every other law enforcement agency operates in the country," he said.
• Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) told us today: "American citizens were killed by federal agents. That doesn't happen on a regular basis."

🔒 In a private caucus meeting this week, Senate Dems discussed how to beat back GOP attempts to steer the debate over ICE into one about immigration, multiple sources familiar with the meeting told us.

• Democrats are concerned that Republican leaders, including President Trump, are injecting issues like the SAVE Act and sanctuary cities into discussions about funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

👎 Those Republican priorities are nonstarters for Schumer in negotiations with the White House over reforms to ICE.

• But Republican leaders are also quickly rejecting Democratic demands over warrants and face masks.

The bottom line: Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who's far from a regular bomb thrower, accused Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of being "afraid of their shadows" today.

• "Any time they're negotiating anyway with the Trump administration, their base has a meltdown, and these guys seem to be very, very afraid of that," Thune told reporters.
• For their part, the Democratic leaders said no reforms, no votes.

— Stephen Neukam

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💰 Scoop: Cornyn's two-way attack

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and his allies are planning to spend roughly $10 million in the next four weeks.

• "That's a round number," Cornyn told us.

Why it matters: Cornyn is targeting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) to turn the three-way race into a two-man showdown.

• "We're gonna be in a runoff, so we got to pay attention to both of them," he said.
• The primary is on March 3, and the expected run-off is on May 26th. That's forcing Cornyn and his allies to calculate when to start draining down his sizable cash advantage.

Zoom out: $65 million has already been spent on TV advertising by Republican groups and super PACs, according to AdImpact.

• But if Cornyn loses the primary, avoiding a general election loss could be even more exorbitant for the Republican Party.
• The contest has been a headache for party leaders for months, as they weigh when — and how much — to spend to ensure the seat stays in the GOP column.

At a closed door briefing yesterday, Brendan Jaspers, the NRSC's political director, shared polling showing Cornyn would comfortably win a general election in Texas if he emerges from a contested primary.

• But trying to get Paxton across the line could cost hundreds of millions of dollars, he said.

The bottom line: Cornyn ended the year with $15 million in the campaign accounts he controls. A super PAC supporting him, Texans for a Conservative Majority, reported $5 million cash on hand at the end of the year.

• Paxton's campaign reported $3.7 million at the end of the year in cash on hand. A super PAC supporting him ended the year with $2.8 million in cash on hand. It wasn't very aggressive in 2025.

Read more.

— Hans Nichols and Kate Santaliz

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🤝 GOP clearing path for Warsh

Key Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee appear to be greasing the path for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as Fed Chair by downplaying the criminal investigation into Chairman Jay Powell or calling for it to be resolved.

Why it matters: Warsh's nomination is being held hostage by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is demanding that Trump drop an investigation into Powell before he votes Warsh out of committee.

• The easiest and fastest way for Warsh to be confirmed is for Trump or the White House to signal that the investigation has been concluded.
• If he moves out of committee, he will likely win easy confirmation on the floor.

Zoom in: Tillis is "perfectly within his rights, and I hope we can get it resolved," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. "And one way, obviously, to get it resolved is to complete the investigation."

• "It only takes one of us to have that. Thom has taken that ground already," said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) "Everything tells me [Warsh] would be an excellent nominee."

The bottom line: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the chair of the committee, made his first comments on the Powell investigation by casting the allegedly criminal behavior — false testimony over the cost of a Fed remodel — in a sympathetic light.

• "I believe what he did was make a gross error in judgment. He was not prepared for that hearing. I do not believe that he committed a crime during the hearing," Scott told Fox Business.
• Sen. Kevin Cramer (D-N.D.), another banking committee member, said: "I don't think that he belongs in a federal courtroom or a federal penitentiary."

— Hans Nichols