Republican National Committee/Republican Congressional Campaign Committee

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🍳 GOP leadership scramble

Rep. Tom Emmer at the Republican midterm convention yesterday in Dallas. Photo: Mark Felix / Bloomberg via Getty Images

DALLAS — Republicans don't yet know whether they'll control the House next year, but they're already gaming out what comes next. Why it matters: House Republicans are maneuvering ahead of postelection leadership contests, particularly given that they could lose the majority, scrambling the current leadership slate. Emmer intends to stay on as his party's whip, telling us in Dallas today that he has no plans to try to move up the leadership ladder after the November midterms. The House Republican Conference elects its party leadership during the lame duck session after the midterm elections. Emmer expressed confidence that Republicans will maintain control of the chamber, predicting that Johnson would remain speaker and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) would remain in his current post. "Anybody who's talking otherwise is already being a loser," Emmer said. "We are going to win in November." 🤔 The intrigue: Emmer's comments come as other Republicans are beginning to make moves that could position them for a leadership shakeup after the election. Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has decided not to seek a waiver to remain atop the committee next Congress, prompting speculation about his leadership ambitions. Asked about Jordan's maneuvering, Emmer said it was "news to me" and praised Jordan as "one of the best leaders" in the Republican conference. Asked if he thinks Jordan would make a good minority leader, he said, "You're not going to get me to start pitting my friends against one another." 👉 Emmer also pointed to Trump saying last week that Republicans should "keep Jim right where he is." Between the lines: Hudson (R-N.C.), who is in his last term as chair, wouldn't say what his future plans are. 🗳️ "I'm just thinking about the election, you know, and that's what everybody needs to be focused on next 50 days," he told us today. "I believe God opens doors and closes doors. I have no anxiety about what happens Nov. 4 or 5. I'm focused on Nov. 3, and I think the whole party is." — Kate Santaliz

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MAGA's millennial messenger

Axios' Marc Caputo reports from the GOP convention at American Airlines Center in Dallas:

Support for President Trump is dropping among millennials and Gen Zers — particularly young men. Vice President Vance is in charge of getting them back in the midterms.

• Why it matters: The 42-year-old Vance, the first millennial VP, capped off the GOP's two-day convention with a direct appeal to families with young children, emphasizing the "birthright" of U.S. citizens.

Vance also sought to cast Democrats as anti-American, anti-family "crazies."

• "America belongs to those who love it. Not those who hate it," he said.

🔎 Zoom in: Support for Republicans is slipping across all age brackets. But the disapproval among millennials and young men is an acute concern for Trump's political operation, because they were crucial to the president's 2024 victory.

• Millennials (born from 1981 to 1996, so roughly ages 30-45) are the largest generation in America — and the cohort with the most school-age kids. So they particularly feel the bite of higher food and gas prices.

In his 41-minute speech, Vance established his millennial bona fides by mentioning that he's now the father of four young children who share in the "birthright ... to inherit the blessings of the greatest country on Earth."

• Vance spoke on the first anniversary of the assassination of his friend and ally, Charlie Kirk.
• "Charlie spoke to young men in particular," Vance said. "He understood that there was no greater calling for a young man ... than falling in love, starting a family and becoming a father."

👀 Behind the scenes: Earlier in the day, Vance addressed a closed-door room of Republicans and emphasized the need to talk up the administration's record on lowering costs for prescription drugs — and to attack Democrats.

• "We have to remind the American people of all the good things that we're doing. And number two, we have to remind the American people of how effing crazy the Democrats have become over the past couple of years," Vance said.

Between the lines: Vance is younger than any member of Trump's Cabinet, the freshest face in an administration led by the oldest person ever elected to the presidency — Trump, an 80-year-old Baby Boomer.

• An administration political adviser told us: "The dynamic you're seeing play out in the administration between the young millennial leader and the boomer is happening in corporate boardrooms across America."
• "JD is uniquely qualified to talk to parents with young families. He's one of them, so this is only the start."

🔮 What's next: Vance and Trump plan to hit the campaign trail to support as many as 35 congressional candidates and a dozen Senate campaigns.

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Vance? Rubio? DeSantis? Cruz? Republicans at Dallas convention ponder options for post-Trump leader In interviews with nearly two dozen attendees, there was no clear consensus yet on a favored 2028 candidate. While potential front-runner Vice President JD Vance received plenty of mentions, a long list of others were on wish lists as well. And most said they weren’t ready to commit. Read more.

Why this matters: It reflects how completely the party has come to revolve around President Donald Trump in the decade since he seized control, making it difficult for some Republicans to consider a future without him at the helm. The uncertainty mirrors the wide-open field on the Democratic side, which is embroiled in its own soul searching.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Trump wants to send Americans money. Congress and economists don’t seem thrilled with the idea  Trump promises $500 Obamacare rebate checks for 1M enrollees in 30 states  Under Trump, census eyes sweeping plan to omit immigrants, race data  Prosecutor brought in to lead investigation of Trump foes tells AP that he has resigned his position

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FACT FOCUS: A look at false and misleading claims during the Republican midterm convention

President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other Republican officials came together for a two-day convention this week to rally voters in advance of midterm elections in November. But in celebrating their accomplishments, they made several false and misleading claims, many of which have been stated repeatedly during Trump's second term. Read More.   ps:How pathetic! What! Just follow the leader no matter what he says??

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How Republicans got Fetterman

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) appears on the video screen at the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas last week. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images The biggest surprise of last week's Republican midterm convention began with an audacious request from the organizers to GOP Sen. Dave McCormick: Could he get Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, a fellow Pennsylvanian, to make an appearance? Why it matters: Fetterman's 64-second video — calling himself a "common-sense Democrat," praising McCormick and vowing to work with President Trump to defend Pennsylvania's steel industry — represented Fetterman's biggest break yet with his party, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports. 🔎 Behind the scenes: Republican operative Tony Sayegh, a leading convention organizer, was a driving force behind the idea, and Trump adviser Jason Miller backed the plan. McCormick asked Fetterman to introduce him at the convention. A source said McCormick added: "I don't want you to do something that's not good for you." "I want to do it. I'm sure it will make people mad," Fetterman told McCormick, according to the source. "But you're my friend, and I want to introduce you." 🤫 The intrigue: To preserve the surprise, organizers kept the circle tight. McCormick looped in his chief of staff, Mark Isakowitz, and only a few others. Miller was Sayegh's point of contact in the White House. Fetterman went even further: He told no one on his team, a source told Axios. Fetterman reiterated after his virtual appearance that he isn't switching parties, calling himself a "lifelong Democrat" and saying that if Democrats win control of the Senate in November, he'd remain the "51st vote." Read on.

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🏖️ Scoop: "Delusional" forecast rattles Senate retreat

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

A pollster for Senate Republicans, Erik Iverson, was met with disbelief yesterday after he told GOP donors and operatives that they can add seats in November's midterm elections, sources tell Axios' Stef W. Kight. In fact, Republicans are increasingly fearful they'll lose their majority. "Delusional," an attendee at a National Republican Senatorial Committee retreat in Sea Island, Ga., told Axios after the presentation. "The mood is not good," griped another. "I think most attendees down here are politically astute and realistic about the headwinds Republicans face," said a third. 🗳️ Zoom in: The NRSC's Sea Island fall retreat is a major donor event that attracts big-dollar givers, senators and their senior staff. Iverson, a former Montana Republican Party chair, suggested Republicans could gain one seat in the Senate after the midterms, but didn't provide a state-by-state explanation. Iverson told Axios that he "pointed out that in 2022 President Biden's image was double digits underwater in every single swing Senate seat, yet Democrats still gained a seat. The message was for folks to keep their heads up." Keep reading.

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💰 Exclusive... GOP's tiny lead

House Republicans are entering the final two weeks of the midterms with a rare but razor-thin fundraising advantage over House Democrats.

💰 Why it matters: Democrats outraised Republicans by $84 million in 2024 and $74 million in 2022. The GOP has eliminated that gap.

• The National Republican Congressional Committee out-raised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by $1 million ($250 million to $249 million) so far this cycle, we have learned.
• "The NRCC spent this cycle building a war chest to amplify Republican wins and make Democrats answer for their failures," NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) told us in a statement.

By the numbers: The NRCC raised $28.5 million in September, including a $14 million transfer from the Republican National Committee, compared to $26.3 million raised by the DCCC.

• The NRCC raised $50 million in Q3 and entered October with $61 million cash on hand.
• The DCCC raised $50.5 million in Q3, and entered October with $55.7 million cash on hand.

Between the lines: Hudson's fundraising success comes as Speaker Mike Johnson has also built a formidable fundraising operation of his own.

• Johnson has raised more than $220 million for House Republicans since becoming speaker in October 2023, a turnaround from early concerns about whether he could fill the void left by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

— Kate Santaliz

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👉👈 Inside the blame game

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Republicans don't know if they'll lose big or small tomorrow, but they're already bracing for an epic blame game. Why it matters: Returning Republican senators aren't likely to publicly blame President Trump — or Trump to shoulder the responsibility. But privately, Republicans acknowledge it's not a complicated version of Clue. The leading suspect: Mr. President, in the Oval Office, with an assortment of weapons — and one war. Trump is more likely to point the finger at Senate Republicans, whom he's never been shy about criticizing. The irony of Trump's second midterm: With Republicans privately resigned to losing the House, Trump can still credibly claim victory if they hold the Senate. "It's Donald Trump's midterms. He gets all the credit if we win. He gets all the credit if we lose," one national GOP strategist told us. 💣 The big picture: From Alaska to Maine, Trump's decision to go to war with Iran — and the resulting spike in gas and diesel prices — has become a major political liability for Republican Senate nominees. "The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly," former Rep. Mike Rogers said in September. He trails in Michigan by more than the margin of error in the final N.Y. Times/Siena poll. "It's not tariffs … it's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel," Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said at a closed-door fundraiser in September, we reported last month. Paxton also trails by more than the margin of error. But Trump's trade policies compounded Republicans' affordability problems, particularly in farm country, where producers have faced higher costs and uncertainty over export markets. 👇 Trump's preferred nominees are also drawing blame, GOP strategists tell us. Paxton in Texas and Darline Graham in South Carolina have forced Republicans to spend heavily defending races that should have been easier — and where the party had other options. Trump's political operation amassed an enormous war chest, but some Republicans complain the money arrived too late to rescue vulnerable candidates. 🫵 But Senate Republicans themselves shoulder some burden. Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) are facing accusations of "arrogance" and "laziness" from Republicans frustrated that their once-safe seats have become late-breaking battlegrounds — exactly the complacency NRSC Chair Tim Scott warned against. Recruitment failures: Republicans couldn't persuade Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to run for Senate, and in New Hampshire settled for their second-choice Sununu — former Sen. John Sununu — instead of his brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu. Underperforming gubernatorial nominees in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio also threaten to drag down Republican Senate candidates. Vivek Ramaswamy, for example, saw his polling crater in the final weeks. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer landed marquee candidates in Alaska, Ohio and Iowa — though Michigan and Maine proved more difficult. The bottom line: Trump's focus on D.C. construction projects, the Kennedy Center, Sen. Jon Husted's backside and the SAVE Act has frustrated Republicans desperate for a closing message focused on the economy. "Reflecting Pool presser was an interesting choice for closing message," another national GOP strategist said of Trump's news conference today. — Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

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Huge GOP streaming bet

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The top Senate GOP super PAC has nearly tripled its spending on streaming and social media platforms this election cycle to more than $200 million, we scooped today. Why it matters: In a record cycle for ad spending, more political money is shifting to streaming, where super PACs have greater freedom to target voters, bargain and experiment — but platforms have more power to set the rules. In some states, streaming and social media have swallowed half of the Senate Leadership Fund budget, according to a source familiar with the group's spending. SLF's $200M+ total for the 2026 cycle (up from $71M in 2024) includes tens of millions of dollars funneled through the SLF-linked Texas PAC and its affiliated nonprofit One Nation. The other side: The top Senate Democratic super PAC declined to disclose how much it spent on streaming. "Senate Majority PAC invested more this cycle in digital communications than any previous cycle, running digital campaigns in 12 states," SMP communications director Lauren French told us. Zoom in: Streaming and social platforms let campaigns target more specific audiences than traditional broadcasts, and make it easier to measure the impact. But platforms can also set their own rules for which types of ads they accept. Some, like Netflix and TikTok, don't allow any candidate or issue ads. Between the lines: SLF works with platforms like SiriusXM, Paramount, Hulu and YouTube to lock in discounts based on their overall spending plans, according to the source. Groups can also experiment with lengths and formats for ads online, breaking the 30-second broadcast mold. The bottom line: It's just the beginning of maneuvering on streaming and coordinated buys. "That is definitely going to be the story of 2028," Kenny Day, senior vice president at IQM Corporation, told us. He said the Supreme Court decision on coordinated spending "was too late for either party to really take advantage of the allowance of coordinated spending" in the 2026 cycle. — Stef Kight