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Trump's campaign ad vanishing act
 
Slope charts that show campaign ad topic rankings in the 2026 primary and general elections. It includes topics that were in the top five for either party in either election. Democrats aired far fewer ads mentioning housing or ICE in the general than the primary. Republicans aired far fewer ads mentioning Trump in the general than they did in the primary.
Data: AdImpact. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios

Republicans on the ballot this cycle have all but stopped mentioning President Trump in their campaign ads, according to an Axios analysis of broadcast advertising data from AdImpact.

  • Why it matters: Trump has tried to make the 2026 midterms a referendum on his presidency. His party has run the other way, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.

🧮 By the numbers: Trump appeared in 66% of House Republicans' primary ads but shows up in just 3% of their general election ads.

  • In Senate races, Republican ads mentioning him fell from 77% to 22%.

👓 Between the lines: This year's drop-off stands out given how hard Trump has pushed to tie himself to the midterms.

Keep reading ...

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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US will halt $4B in aid to Israel as the Mideast ally weans itself from American dependence

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States will stop providing $4 billion in aid each year to Israel in 2027 but will sell arms to its closest ally in the Middle East, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-israel-military-aid-hardware-5cad93330300b2d45a9665d5eccb2ab2?

ps:This is interesting! Is he throwing them under the bus or playing to someone??

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Political Mortality

(Illustration by Cristiana Couceiro. Source: Mandel Ngan / AFP / Getty.)

 

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President Trump has been the dominant political figure of this century. He pulled off one of the most unlikely campaign victories in American history, and then staged the greatest political comeback. He has altered the United States’ relationship with the world, rewritten the rules and expectations of the presidency, inflamed the nation’s divisions, and changed how—and how often—Americans think about his office. He is omnipresent, and draws his power from that ubiquity.

But tonight, Trump has been forced to face his political mortality. He asked voters to make these midterm elections a referendum on him, to imagine that his name was on the ballot. They listened—and then rejected him. It is a stunning, widespread rebuke. Democrats appear poised to win the House and, if trends hold, could also capture the Senate after Americans registered their strong disapproval of the direction in which the president has taken the country over the past two years. Trump will now likely have to deal with congressional Democrats who could block his agenda and wield the power of the subpoena. He also must face the possibility that the political party he remade in his image may soon start looking beyond him. Donald J. Trump is now officially, thoroughly a lame duck.

But we haven’t heard the last of him. He remains the commander in chief, dominates global affairs, wields the expansive power of executive orders, and remains unequaled at capturing attention. He has escaped the political graveyard more than once before, and emerged stronger. Yet for all his power, for all his volume, he cannot browbeat the unrelenting calendar: The next national election will be the one to replace him. Trump will before long begin to slip in the headlines, pushed off the front page by the presidential campaign. He’ll face the possibility of being succeeded by a Democratic president who could employ the Department of Justice to plumb the previous four years and look into Trump’s allies, friends, family, and businesses. And he’ll confront arguably his greatest fear: irrelevance.

Trump will not go quietly. It is not clear whether he and fellow Republicans will even accept the midterm results—and he has defied expectations so often that it would be a foolish exercise to set any. Tonight’s expected losses will not humble him. But they mark the beginning of the end.

Trump’s midterm campaign ended in the most ridiculous, yet predictable, way possible. For months, the president had been accused of being out of touch, of losing his once-unmatched feel for what animated his supporters. He has mocked affordability concerns while his own fortune has swelled, started a war that Americans did not want, remodeled the White House, and planned various monuments to himself. And then yesterday, he decided that the best way to push back against the accusation that he’d been consumed with vanity projects and corrupt bargains would be to deliver the final speech of the campaign cycle at the site of his most absurd, failed renovation project.

To the dismay of Republicans everywhere, Trump stood in front of the Reflecting Pool on the eve of Election Day and delivered a defense of a project that was doomed by algae and the shoddy work of a no-bid contractor. The project—which Trump had falsely claimed was derailed by vandalism—ran millions of dollars over budget and surely earned not a single vote in places such as Michigan, Kansas, and Alaska. Worst of all, the detour to revisit the Reflecting Pool distracted from Trump’s true closing message: that Senator Jon Husted of Ohio has a great body.

Trump was a late entrant on the campaign trail, and had to be talked into holding rallies over the past month or so. But once he was, he insisted that the election be about himself and his successes, and make no acknowledgment of any missteps or empathy for those who are struggling. He insisted that many campaign ads feature him. He demanded a first-of-its-kind midterm political convention, though few who attended the festivities in Dallas seemed happy to be there. Trump threw himself into the campaign, holding nearly-two-hour rallies night after night across the country. But these road shows weren’t quite the same as those that became the defining political event of the past decade.

They were smaller than normal, and few were outdoors (in part because of security concerns). One rally in Ohio in the campaign’s final fortnight was held in a small gym, and others featured plenty of empty seats. More striking was where the rallies were held: nearly half in deep-red states where Trump has easily won in the past and has rarely needed to campaign. That led to bigger, more enthusiastic crowds—people in a place like Corinth, Mississippi, were more excited to see Trump for the first time than, say, those in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he has held more than half a dozen rallies over the years. But the geography also told a story: Trump had to visit Republican strongholds such as South Carolina and Montana because seats in those states were suddenly in play and his faithful had to be summoned. But once there, what did Trump really have to offer?

Voters, per polling, are angry over his string of broken promises, including his vows to bring down prices, not start new wars, release the Epstein files, and deport only the “worst of the worst.” The parties of incumbent presidents traditionally fare poorly in the midterms, but Trump is also underwater on several of what used to be his strongest issues, such as the economy and immigration. He forced out multiple incumbent senators for being disloyal and backed some problematic candidates, all of which put more races into play. He gave Republican candidates very little to run on, as voters furiously reacted to an economy that seemed to benefit only the rich (a category that includes the president’s family and Cabinet). Instead, Trump tried to recycle culture-war issues from campaigns past, including fears about transgender surgeries, Muslim terrorists, and even communism.

He seemed out of step not just with the public but, in many cases, with his own party. Despite warnings that AI could wipe out humanity (or at least a lot of jobs), Trump backed the nascent technology and its data centers—even as the public turned on them—because tech companies are propping up the stock market. He supported a controversial attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race that the state’s Republican governor denounced. He sided with Russia in its war with Ukraine. He threatened to once more bomb Iran. And there really was a lot of talk about butts, which will surely confuse future historians.

Americans didn’t seem to go for it. As of this writing Democrats were well on track to decisively take the House. But the story is the Senate: Democrats have already flipped North and South Carolina and easily held on to Georgia. Ohio, Texas, and other deep-red strongholds may soon join them.

Trump is now in a new place, and one he won’t like.

In his first midterm election, in 2018, Democrats gained control of the House, but that victory was offset by GOP wins in the Senate. House Democrats slowed the president’s agenda, but their 2019 impeachment effort over Ukraine only bolstered Trump’s approval ratings—and he still felt bullish about his reelection chances on the back of a strong economy. (Then, of course, came the pandemic.) Many Democrats say they’ve learned their lesson. Senior members in the party, including Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next House speaker, have been cagey as to their plans for power. The Democratic Party’s approval ratings remain low, and although not being a Republican boosted many Democrats in this year’s campaign, that won’t be the case going forward. Jeffries has signaled that he will focus on measures to try to address affordability and health-care challenges. Democrats are going to say “no” a lot, and now that it appears that they will capture the Senate too, they will likely make it difficult for Trump to confirm any of his nominees, including possible Supreme Court justices.

But the Democratic Party’s base is hungry to hold the Trump administration accountable: for DOGE’s destruction of the government, for war, for foreign business deals masquerading as diplomacy, for profiting off the presidency. Accusations of corruption against Trump and his administration have proliferated compared with in his first term. Democrats have promised to issue subpoenas and parade administration officials through the Capitol’s hearing rooms—if they agree to show up. Some close to Trump have theorized that he doesn’t mind having a foil in Washington, and that he would be comfortable tangling with congressional Democrats again. “He likes to have someone to fight—and someone to blame,” one close outside adviser told me on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics.

But Trump is leery about some of the possible investigations and does not want to be impeached again. (Democrats might be more inclined to try to oust a Cabinet member anyway.) The probes he likely faces next year could act as a preview of what would happen in 2029 if a Democratic president follows him. Trump enjoys a sort of immunity granted by the Supreme Court, and he has vowed to give preemptive pardons to many people in this administration. Yet advisers say he is unhappy at the prospect of his inner circle facing punishing investigations once he leaves office.

Today’s vote is a clear marker on Trump’s road to irrelevance. Many close to him believe that his driving motivation—more than power or money—is attention. And for a decade now, he has blocked out the sun, dominating the discourse in a way that no other president has in generations. But that will begin to change as Washington begins to look beyond him. Once a colossus, Trump will quickly find himself to be a secondary storyline. It’s not as if he will suddenly vanish; he’ll aim to play GOP kingmaker, and he’ll still surely inspire loyalty from his hard-core believers, even if that group shrinks. He’ll still be commander in chief, and even lame-duck presidents have broad authority when it comes to foreign policy. A return to war with Iran? A move on Cuba? Revisiting Greenland? With Trump fixated on his legacy and desperate to stay in the spotlight, anything feels possible.

Trump also may start to see the complete fealty of the Republican Party erode. This stunning midterms wipeout suggests that Trump’s instincts and influence seem to be waning, and Republicans may be more willing to defy him. As the next round of presidential contenders begins to emerge, Republicans will begin to sort out what their post-MAGA future will look like—and what role, if any, Trump plays in it.

Related:

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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The Trump obliteration
 
Illustration of a pack of donkeys at a race
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Make no mistake: Democrats won by epic, sometimes historic margins across red and blue states, up and down ballots, obliterating almost everything President Trump, and a Republican Party remade wholly in his image, built over the past decade in American politics, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

  • Why it matters: Trump and Republicans are left with a mostly white, mostly old House and Senate minority, confronting a younger, more diverse ascendant Democratic Party with power and margins it hasn't held in 18 years, since the dawn of the Obama era.

📊 The results speak louder than any words we can write:

  • Democrats won Senate races in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Ohio, and perhaps Mississippi en route to what could be a 55-seat majority.
  • Democrats won swing districts all across red America, with national average margins of victory of roughly 13 points, according to a New York Times estimate. Dems appear headed for a 250+-seat majority, an 18-year high.
  • Texas is now a Democratic state, top to bottom — unthinkable mere months ago. James Talarico crushed Ken Paxton (55% to 43%) like it was Connecticut. State Representative Gina Hinojosa will become the first Democratic governor of Texas in 32 years.
  • Pastor Adam Hamilton is the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas in 94 years.
  • North Carolina looks like a true-blue state after Democrats flipped the Senate seat and likely ousted Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) — meaning he led the GOP drive to keep the House.
  • North Carolina's congressional delegation could swing from 10R-4D to 5R-9D. Georgia was even worse for Republicans, where they lost all power at the state and U.S. Senate levels.
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) predicted on X that the losses were so widespread, so deep, so severe that Republicans might not "have a shot at Senate control until 2032."

💡 How to think about last night more broadly: This is a 50-50 nation with fast, whiplash shifts in power at the federal level due to persistent discontent with the party in power. So, on one hand, this isn't terribly surprising.

  • On the other, Republican losses were so deep, so wide, so everywhere that it would be foolish to see this as anything but a massive repudiation of Trump, his agenda, his style, his rhetoric and his presidency.

If anything, what's left of the Republican Party is more pro-Trump and less likely to challenge him. His critics, even the timid ones, were ousted long before the general election. So Republicans are left with two more years of riding a very unpopular leader managing a very unpopular war. A trapped, embarrassed Trump is even more unpredictable.

  • Democrats have the numbers to investigate Trump, his family and supporters, and the power to set the agenda in the House and Senate.

The bottom line: Voters nationally said government corruption was a "crucial issue" in their vote for Congress. Democrats will spend months trying to rehab a party that, despite its victory, remains deeply unpopular as a brand. Expect a vigorous fight between Mamdani-like socialists and Schumer-like center-leftists.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🌊 Blue tsunami breaks MAGA
 
Illustration of a giant blue wave with a repeated pattern of
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

 

The 2026 midterms will go down as one of the most sweeping repudiations of a sitting president in modern American history, on a scale reminiscent of the post-Watergate reckoning of 1974, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

  • Democrats seized control of both chambers of Congress, on course to hold at least 54 Senate seats and potentially more than 255 in the House.
  • The wave swept deep into Republican territory, from Texas and Georgia to both Carolinas, flipping hundreds of legislative seats and delivering Democratic trifectas in the unlikeliest of states.
  • Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's bitterly contested Senate race and will be the nation's first Muslim senator.
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Cover: The New York Post

Takeaways:

1. Texas turns blue: Democrats finally conquered the nation's most coveted Republican stronghold — in a landslide so sweeping that even three-term Gov. Greg Abbott was driven from office.

  • Gina Hinojosa became the state's first Latina governor, while James Talarico defeated Trump-backed Ken Paxton to become the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988.
  • The Democratic onslaught extended across statewide offices and into the legislature after 32 years of GOP dominance.

2. Democrats storm Senate: What once looked like an impossibly difficult map for Democrats gave way to a historic rout, as Republicans watched their 53-seat majority crumble in states Trump carried by double digits.

3. MAGA coalition collapses: The multiracial, working-class coalition that powered Trump's 2024 comeback fractured spectacularly.

  • AP's nationwide voter survey found roughly 70% of voters under 30 and 60% of Hispanic voters backed Democratic House candidates, amid widespread anger over the economy and the Iran war.

4. GOP House firewall crumbles: Democrats are on course for their largest House majority since 2009.

  • Casualties spanned the entire GOP conference, from MAGA firebrands to battle-tested moderates. Even seats redrawn to shield Republicans from a blue wave fell to Democrats, turning Trump's redistricting offensive into a spectacular miscalculation.
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) arrives to deliver a victory speech at an election night party in Atlanta. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

5. 2028's winners and losers: Yesterday's landslide elevated a new generation of Democratic contenders and cast a shadow over Vice President Vance's presidential ambitions.

  • Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, whose race was called 15 minutes after polls closed, immediately vaulted into the top tier of Democratic prospects. Keisha Lance Bottoms' historic victory for governor removed a key obstacle for both Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock: She could appoint a Democrat to fill their seat if either became president.
  • Vance, Trump's presumed political heir, now faces the fallout from a deeply unpopular Iran war and the collapse of a once-in-a-generation coalition he hoped would carry him to the White House.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🥊 Susie Wiles: Foot on gas
 
Tweet screenshot by Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) with an American flag avatar and verification, reading:
 

Via Truth Social

 

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles made these remarks to senior staff gathered in her office last night, a person in the room tells me:

"We're going to take a page out of President Trump's playbook and keep fighting for the American people. We will not stand by while radical Democrats try to undo the progress we've made by reopening our borders, making our communities less safe, and raising taxes on hardworking families. Anyone who thinks President Trump or this team is going to take our foot off the gas over the next two years is sorely mistaken. We know exactly what's at stake, we know what we're fighting for, and we have no intention of backing down. There is work left to do, and we intend to finish the job."
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Via Truth Social

📱President Trump told The New York Times in a phone interview shortly before 10:30 p.m. ET that he's "absolutely willing" to accept the results, and is prepared to work with Democrats:

  • "We'll, you know, look forward to working with them ... We'll probably work something out."
  • He called his decision to go to war with Iran a "very wise decision."

On Republican Darline Graham's stunning loss of her Senate race in South Carolina, Trump said: "I'm just looking at these results as I'm talking ... I see that Darline lost. Wow, that's amazing."

  • Referring to Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July, Trump added: "How do you think Lindsey would have done if he ran?"

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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