Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed

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Trump's campaign ad vanishing act

Data: AdImpact. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Republicans on the ballot this cycle have all but stopped mentioning President Trump in their campaign ads, according to an Axios analysis of broadcast advertising data from AdImpact. Why it matters: Trump has tried to make the 2026 midterms a referendum on his presidency. His party has run the other way, Axios' Sara Fischer writes. 🧮 By the numbers: Trump appeared in 66% of House Republicans' primary ads but shows up in just 3% of their general election ads. In Senate races, Republican ads mentioning him fell from 77% to 22%. 👓 Between the lines: This year's drop-off stands out given how hard Trump has pushed to tie himself to the midterms. He has urged voters to pretend he's on the ballot and essentially demanded ads running during the Republican midterm convention in September feature him. Keep reading ...

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US will halt $4B in aid to Israel as the Mideast ally weans itself from American dependence

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States will stop providing $4 billion in aid each year to Israel in 2027 but will sell arms to its closest ally in the Middle East, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-israel-military-aid-hardware-5cad93330300b2d45a9665d5eccb2ab2?

ps:This is interesting! Is he throwing them under the bus or playing to someone??

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Political Mortality (Illustration by Cristiana Couceiro. Source: Mandel Ngan / AFP / Getty.)

View in browser President Trump has been the dominant political figure of this century. He pulled off one of the most unlikely campaign victories in American history, and then staged the greatest political comeback. He has altered the United States’ relationship with the world, rewritten the rules and expectations of the presidency, inflamed the nation’s divisions, and changed how—and how often—Americans think about his office. He is omnipresent, and draws his power from that ubiquity. But tonight, Trump has been forced to face his political mortality. He asked voters to make these midterm elections a referendum on him, to imagine that his name was on the ballot. They listened—and then rejected him. It is a stunning, widespread rebuke. Democrats appear poised to win the House and, if trends hold, could also capture the Senate after Americans registered their strong disapproval of the direction in which the president has taken the country over the past two years. Trump will now likely have to deal with congressional Democrats who could block his agenda and wield the power of the subpoena. He also must face the possibility that the political party he remade in his image may soon start looking beyond him. Donald J. Trump is now officially, thoroughly a lame duck. But we haven’t heard the last of him. He remains the commander in chief, dominates global affairs, wields the expansive power of executive orders, and remains unequaled at capturing attention. He has escaped the political graveyard more than once before, and emerged stronger. Yet for all his power, for all his volume, he cannot browbeat the unrelenting calendar: The next national election will be the one to replace him. Trump will before long begin to slip in the headlines, pushed off the front page by the presidential campaign. He’ll face the possibility of being succeeded by a Democratic president who could employ the Department of Justice to plumb the previous four years and look into Trump’s allies, friends, family, and businesses. And he’ll confront arguably his greatest fear: irrelevance. Trump will not go quietly. It is not clear whether he and fellow Republicans will even accept the midterm results—and he has defied expectations so often that it would be a foolish exercise to set any. Tonight’s expected losses will not humble him. But they mark the beginning of the end. Trump’s midterm campaign ended in the most ridiculous, yet predictable, way possible. For months, the president had been accused of being out of touch, of losing his once-unmatched feel for what animated his supporters. He has mocked affordability concerns while his own fortune has swelled, started a war that Americans did not want, remodeled the White House, and planned various monuments to himself. And then yesterday, he decided that the best way to push back against the accusation that he’d been consumed with vanity projects and corrupt bargains would be to deliver the final speech of the campaign cycle at the site of his most absurd, failed renovation project. To the dismay of Republicans everywhere, Trump stood in front of the Reflecting Pool on the eve of Election Day and delivered a defense of a project that was doomed by algae and the shoddy work of a no-bid contractor. The project—which Trump had falsely claimed was derailed by vandalism—ran millions of dollars over budget and surely earned not a single vote in places such as Michigan, Kansas, and Alaska. Worst of all, the detour to revisit the Reflecting Pool distracted from Trump’s true closing message: that Senator Jon Husted of Ohio has a great body. Trump was a late entrant on the campaign trail, and had to be talked into holding rallies over the past month or so. But once he was, he insisted that the election be about himself and his successes, and make no acknowledgment of any missteps or empathy for those who are struggling. He insisted that many campaign ads feature him. He demanded a first-of-its-kind midterm political convention, though few who attended the festivities in Dallas seemed happy to be there. Trump threw himself into the campaign, holding nearly-two-hour rallies night after night across the country. But these road shows weren’t quite the same as those that became the defining political event of the past decade. They were smaller than normal, and few were outdoors (in part because of security concerns). One rally in Ohio in the campaign’s final fortnight was held in a small gym, and others featured plenty of empty seats. More striking was where the rallies were held: nearly half in deep-red states where Trump has easily won in the past and has rarely needed to campaign. That led to bigger, more enthusiastic crowds—people in a place like Corinth, Mississippi, were more excited to see Trump for the first time than, say, those in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he has held more than half a dozen rallies over the years. But the geography also told a story: Trump had to visit Republican strongholds such as South Carolina and Montana because seats in those states were suddenly in play and his faithful had to be summoned. But once there, what did Trump really have to offer? Voters, per polling, are angry over his string of broken promises, including his vows to bring down prices, not start new wars, release the Epstein files, and deport only the “worst of the worst.” The parties of incumbent presidents traditionally fare poorly in the midterms, but Trump is also underwater on several of what used to be his strongest issues, such as the economy and immigration. He forced out multiple incumbent senators for being disloyal and backed some problematic candidates, all of which put more races into play. He gave Republican candidates very little to run on, as voters furiously reacted to an economy that seemed to benefit only the rich (a category that includes the president’s family and Cabinet). Instead, Trump tried to recycle culture-war issues from campaigns past, including fears about transgender surgeries, Muslim terrorists, and even communism. He seemed out of step not just with the public but, in many cases, with his own party. Despite warnings that AI could wipe out humanity (or at least a lot of jobs), Trump backed the nascent technology and its data centers—even as the public turned on them—because tech companies are propping up the stock market. He supported a controversial attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race that the state’s Republican governor denounced. He sided with Russia in its war with Ukraine. He threatened to once more bomb Iran. And there really was a lot of talk about butts, which will surely confuse future historians. Americans didn’t seem to go for it. As of this writing Democrats were well on track to decisively take the House. But the story is the Senate: Democrats have already flipped North and South Carolina and easily held on to Georgia. Ohio, Texas, and other deep-red strongholds may soon join them. Trump is now in a new place, and one he won’t like. In his first midterm election, in 2018, Democrats gained control of the House, but that victory was offset by GOP wins in the Senate. House Democrats slowed the president’s agenda, but their 2019 impeachment effort over Ukraine only bolstered Trump’s approval ratings—and he still felt bullish about his reelection chances on the back of a strong economy. (Then, of course, came the pandemic.) Many Democrats say they’ve learned their lesson. Senior members in the party, including Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next House speaker, have been cagey as to their plans for power. The Democratic Party’s approval ratings remain low, and although not being a Republican boosted many Democrats in this year’s campaign, that won’t be the case going forward. Jeffries has signaled that he will focus on measures to try to address affordability and health-care challenges. Democrats are going to say “no” a lot, and now that it appears that they will capture the Senate too, they will likely make it difficult for Trump to confirm any of his nominees, including possible Supreme Court justices. But the Democratic Party’s base is hungry to hold the Trump administration accountable: for DOGE’s destruction of the government, for war, for foreign business deals masquerading as diplomacy, for profiting off the presidency. Accusations of corruption against Trump and his administration have proliferated compared with in his first term. Democrats have promised to issue subpoenas and parade administration officials through the Capitol’s hearing rooms—if they agree to show up. Some close to Trump have theorized that he doesn’t mind having a foil in Washington, and that he would be comfortable tangling with congressional Democrats again. “He likes to have someone to fight—and someone to blame,” one close outside adviser told me on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. But Trump is leery about some of the possible investigations and does not want to be impeached again. (Democrats might be more inclined to try to oust a Cabinet member anyway.) The probes he likely faces next year could act as a preview of what would happen in 2029 if a Democratic president follows him. Trump enjoys a sort of immunity granted by the Supreme Court, and he has vowed to give preemptive pardons to many people in this administration. Yet advisers say he is unhappy at the prospect of his inner circle facing punishing investigations once he leaves office. Today’s vote is a clear marker on Trump’s road to irrelevance. Many close to him believe that his driving motivation—more than power or money—is attention. And for a decade now, he has blocked out the sun, dominating the discourse in a way that no other president has in generations. But that will begin to change as Washington begins to look beyond him. Once a colossus, Trump will quickly find himself to be a secondary storyline. It’s not as if he will suddenly vanish; he’ll aim to play GOP kingmaker, and he’ll still surely inspire loyalty from his hard-core believers, even if that group shrinks. He’ll still be commander in chief, and even lame-duck presidents have broad authority when it comes to foreign policy. A return to war with Iran? A move on Cuba? Revisiting Greenland? With Trump fixated on his legacy and desperate to stay in the spotlight, anything feels possible. Trump also may start to see the complete fealty of the Republican Party erode. This stunning midterms wipeout suggests that Trump’s instincts and influence seem to be waning, and Republicans may be more willing to defy him. As the next round of presidential contenders begins to emerge, Republicans will begin to sort out what their post-MAGA future will look like—and what role, if any, Trump plays in it. Related: Here’s who Democrats want to impeach next. Donald Trump is bad at politics, Jonathan Chait argues.

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The Trump obliteration

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Make no mistake: Democrats won by epic, sometimes historic margins across red and blue states, up and down ballots, obliterating almost everything President Trump, and a Republican Party remade wholly in his image, built over the past decade in American politics, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column. Why it matters: Trump and Republicans are left with a mostly white, mostly old House and Senate minority, confronting a younger, more diverse ascendant Democratic Party with power and margins it hasn't held in 18 years, since the dawn of the Obama era. 📊 The results speak louder than any words we can write: Democrats won Senate races in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Ohio, and perhaps Mississippi en route to what could be a 55-seat majority. Democrats won swing districts all across red America, with national average margins of victory of roughly 13 points, according to a New York Times estimate. Dems appear headed for a 250+-seat majority, an 18-year high. Texas is now a Democratic state, top to bottom — unthinkable mere months ago. James Talarico crushed Ken Paxton (55% to 43%) like it was Connecticut. State Representative Gina Hinojosa will become the first Democratic governor of Texas in 32 years. Pastor Adam Hamilton is the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas in 94 years. North Carolina looks like a true-blue state after Democrats flipped the Senate seat and likely ousted Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) — meaning he led the GOP drive to keep the House. North Carolina's congressional delegation could swing from 10R-4D to 5R-9D. Georgia was even worse for Republicans, where they lost all power at the state and U.S. Senate levels. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) predicted on X that the losses were so widespread, so deep, so severe that Republicans might not "have a shot at Senate control until 2032." 💡 How to think about last night more broadly: This is a 50-50 nation with fast, whiplash shifts in power at the federal level due to persistent discontent with the party in power. So, on one hand, this isn't terribly surprising. On the other, Republican losses were so deep, so wide, so everywhere that it would be foolish to see this as anything but a massive repudiation of Trump, his agenda, his style, his rhetoric and his presidency. If anything, what's left of the Republican Party is more pro-Trump and less likely to challenge him. His critics, even the timid ones, were ousted long before the general election. So Republicans are left with two more years of riding a very unpopular leader managing a very unpopular war. A trapped, embarrassed Trump is even more unpredictable. Democrats have the numbers to investigate Trump, his family and supporters, and the power to set the agenda in the House and Senate. The bottom line: Voters nationally said government corruption was a "crucial issue" in their vote for Congress. Democrats will spend months trying to rehab a party that, despite its victory, remains deeply unpopular as a brand. Expect a vigorous fight between Mamdani-like socialists and Schumer-like center-leftists.

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🌊 Blue tsunami breaks MAGA

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

The 2026 midterms will go down as one of the most sweeping repudiations of a sitting president in modern American history, on a scale reminiscent of the post-Watergate reckoning of 1974, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Democrats seized control of both chambers of Congress, on course to hold at least 54 Senate seats and potentially more than 255 in the House. The wave swept deep into Republican territory, from Texas and Georgia to both Carolinas, flipping hundreds of legislative seats and delivering Democratic trifectas in the unlikeliest of states. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's bitterly contested Senate race and will be the nation's first Muslim senator. Cover: The New York Post Takeaways: 1. Texas turns blue: Democrats finally conquered the nation's most coveted Republican stronghold — in a landslide so sweeping that even three-term Gov. Greg Abbott was driven from office. Gina Hinojosa became the state's first Latina governor, while James Talarico defeated Trump-backed Ken Paxton to become the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988. The Democratic onslaught extended across statewide offices and into the legislature after 32 years of GOP dominance. 2. Democrats storm Senate: What once looked like an impossibly difficult map for Democrats gave way to a historic rout, as Republicans watched their 53-seat majority crumble in states Trump carried by double digits. Democrats broke a 94-year losing streak in Kansas, ousted Republicans in Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina, and captured South Carolina for the first time since 1998. In Maine, Democrats finally toppled five-term Sen. Susan Collins after many failed attempts. 3. MAGA coalition collapses: The multiracial, working-class coalition that powered Trump's 2024 comeback fractured spectacularly. AP's nationwide voter survey found roughly 70% of voters under 30 and 60% of Hispanic voters backed Democratic House candidates, amid widespread anger over the economy and the Iran war. 4. GOP House firewall crumbles: Democrats are on course for their largest House majority since 2009. Casualties spanned the entire GOP conference, from MAGA firebrands to battle-tested moderates. Even seats redrawn to shield Republicans from a blue wave fell to Democrats, turning Trump's redistricting offensive into a spectacular miscalculation. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) arrives to deliver a victory speech at an election night party in Atlanta. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images 5. 2028's winners and losers: Yesterday's landslide elevated a new generation of Democratic contenders and cast a shadow over Vice President Vance's presidential ambitions. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, whose race was called 15 minutes after polls closed, immediately vaulted into the top tier of Democratic prospects. Keisha Lance Bottoms' historic victory for governor removed a key obstacle for both Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock: She could appoint a Democrat to fill their seat if either became president. Vance, Trump's presumed political heir, now faces the fallout from a deeply unpopular Iran war and the collapse of a once-in-a-generation coalition he hoped would carry him to the White House.

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🥊 Susie Wiles: Foot on gas

Via Truth Social

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles made these remarks to senior staff gathered in her office last night, a person in the room tells me: "We're going to take a page out of President Trump's playbook and keep fighting for the American people. We will not stand by while radical Democrats try to undo the progress we've made by reopening our borders, making our communities less safe, and raising taxes on hardworking families. Anyone who thinks President Trump or this team is going to take our foot off the gas over the next two years is sorely mistaken. We know exactly what's at stake, we know what we're fighting for, and we have no intention of backing down. There is work left to do, and we intend to finish the job." Via Truth Social 📱President Trump told The New York Times in a phone interview shortly before 10:30 p.m. ET that he's "absolutely willing" to accept the results, and is prepared to work with Democrats: "We'll, you know, look forward to working with them ... We'll probably work something out." He called his decision to go to war with Iran a "very wise decision." On Republican Darline Graham's stunning loss of her Senate race in South Carolina, Trump said: "I'm just looking at these results as I'm talking ... I see that Darline lost. Wow, that's amazing." Referring to Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July, Trump added: "How do you think Lindsey would have done if he ran?"

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After midterm losses, Trump stares down the specter of Democratic probes and the race to succeed him For Donald Trump, his party’s resounding midterm losses pave the way for investigations and potential impeachments that will put the Republican president on the defensive in his final two years in office. Read more.

Why this matters: Senior Democrats, as they anticipated a majority in at least one chamber of Congress, have been telegraphing what their top investigative targets would be: the Trump administration’s policies, the conduct of its personnel, and interactions between government officials and private corporations that have tried to wield influence with the White House. Among their priorities are the Trump family’s business dealings, the administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation and broader allegations of corporate corruption.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ How Trump and Republicans lost the 2026 midterm elections, according to The AP Voter Poll Voters back abortion rights and reject Trump’s redistricting in state ballot measures Analysis: Trump has defied political consequences for years. The midterms changed that FACT FOCUS: False accusations and unverified claims quickly spread about Election Day voting For more politics coverage, sign up for AP's Ground Game newsletter here

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Democratic sweep of Congress ushers in a new era as Trump acknowledges impact of the Iran war

WASHINGTON (AP) — The midterm election blowout delivered a new era in Washington, with Democrats in Congress eager to meet voter demands for change while Republicans watched their majorities evaporate after a revolt against President Donald Trump and his party in power.

https://apnews.com/article/congress-democratic-blue-wave-midterms-house-senate-9c5c4c5283f58b1ae0786e2f410c21a0?

Vance blames war for GOP's catastrophic night

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Brandon Bell and U.S. Navy via Getty Images Opposition to the Iran war fueled the Democrats' "blue tsunami," Vice President Vance argued in a surprisingly blunt midterms postmortem today, Axios' Herb Scribner reports. Vance's comments effectively kick off the 2028 election cycle, with the vice president distancing himself from Trump's highly unpopular war. 🤳 Vance wrote on X: "The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night." "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest." Vance argued that Republicans need to do four things to win voters back: End the Iran war, focus on inflation, "put America First," and "change our relationship to Israel." He wrote: "To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let's take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country." ⛽️ Trump said this afternoon that he agrees that the war "drove the gasoline up a little bit, short term." "But at the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long term, it's the only answer," he added at an impromptu White House ballroom event. "You have no choice. You have to do it. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon." The intrigue: Donald Trump Jr. responded to Vance's post: "Every word of this is 💯💯💯." Neither the White House nor the vice president's office responded to Axios' requests for comment. Go deeper. ps:Lets blame anything else except those that are really to blame!!

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Democratic sweep of Congress ushers in a new era as Trump acknowledges impact of the Iran war

The midterm election blowout delivered a new era in Washington, with Democrats in Congress eager to meet voter demands for change while Republicans watched their majorities evaporate after a revolt against President Donald Trump and his party in power. Read More.

Photos show Trump touring White House ballroom construction after crushing Republican election loss

President Donald Trump spent the day after his party’s major election defeat touring his new White House ballroom, where he signed the final steel beam before it was raised into place Wednesday. He also touted other projects underway in what has been a remaking of the city. This is a photo gallery curated by AP photo editors. Read More.

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😭 Next GOP nightmare

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Republicans woke up "in shock" this morning after they got hit with the biggest midterms wave in 50 years. Within hours, it turned into rage and despair. Why it matters: House Republicans are savaging their leaders and each other, while Senate Republicans are questioning what they can get done before Democrats take power next year. They'll have four days to grieve before going back to work in Washington. 🏛️ In the House, every GOP leader lost reelection, stepped aside or faces a challenger in next week's leadership elections. Within minutes this morning, Speaker Mike Johnson said he'll step aside, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said they'll run for minority leader, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) picked up a challenge from Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas). Not to be outdone, Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) picked up a challenge tonight from Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.). McClain says 35 members have already endorsed her. There's no love lost: "Please do us all a favor and step aside so new leadership can take a truly conservative direction," Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) posted on X today about House GOP "Leadership." 😭 In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune is on a glide path to retain his party leadership job on Tuesday. But he'll be leading a conference that's lost the wind in its sails. Just two weeks ago, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) vowed to work on a MAGA megabill to end all megabills if Republicans lost both chambers. The GOP's nightmare election scenario has given Democrats little reason to cooperate with Republican demands. Multiple Republican sources questioned whether they'll pass anything beyond a short-term CR to avoid a government shutdown in December. The intrigue: Sources expect a bipartisan permitting-reform effort to move forward, but that's dependent on Democratic goodwill. Some conservatives will push for a Hail Mary reconciliation package or another swing at the SAVE Act voter-ID bill. But don't expect those to gain traction. The bottom line: House GOP leaders could have a whale of a problem motivating the dozens of lawmakers who lost to come back for the lame duck. — Kate Santaliz and Stef Kight

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Vance's MAGA power play

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Tom Brenner/Getty Images

Vice President Vance stepped out of President Trump's shadow yesterday, seizing on the GOP's midterm catastrophe to begin the explosive task of claiming MAGA as his own, Axios' Zachary Basu, Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt write. "The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote in an extraordinary 600-word postmortem on X, blaming Trump's Iran campaign for Republicans' historic collapse. Why it matters: Vance's presidential ambitions are entangled in the wreckage of a war he privately opposed but publicly defended. His path to 2028 demands a delicate political calculation. Vance must convince MAGA's disillusioned voters that he understands their sense of betrayal, even as he remains a central figure in the administration responsible for the Iran war. "Today, JD Vance became president — or acted like he wanted to become one," a source close to the administration told Axios. 🥊 Vance argued that defections from Trump's 2024 coalition — not lack of turnout — drove the GOP's collapse in Tuesday's midterms. Citing polling of disaffected Trump voters, he identified four demands: "End the war." "Focus on cost of living/inflation." "Put America First." "Change our relationship to Israel." 💡 Between the lines: Those happen to be the four hottest topics among top MAGA podcasters and activists. So Vance is aligning with those leaders on topics where MAGA anger with Trump is raging. Behind the scenes: Vance's commentary caught some in the White House by surprise. But insiders said the vice president worked with senior administration officials on the post. "These were his words and thoughts," one insider said. "He's leading." Said another: "It pains me to say this, but Tuesday showed the emperor had no clothes, and Vance knew he should just state the obvious. There are going to be a lot of other Republicans putting a lot more distance between them and the president." One Republican consultant representing a potential rival in the 2028 presidential race offered a blunter assessment: "The VP had to show he's not a dead man walking out there." Data: The New York Times. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Zoom out: Trump's second term has been riven by a bitter ideological feud between MAGA's anti-interventionist wing and the pro-Israel hawks who championed the Iran war. Vance privately questioned the war's objectives and duration, then publicly defended the campaign and led peace negotiations with Iran. His postmortem now puts him squarely in the anti-interventionists' camp. It also gives Vance an opening against more hawkish Republicans, particularly Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. If Cruz runs in 2028, as many expect, and argues that it's time for the party to move on from Trump administration figures, Vance could try to argue that Cruz was on the wrong side of the issue that helped cost Republicans the midterms. 👀 What to watch: Trump has yet to anoint Vance as his successor, and the Republican collapse is already exposing the contours of a potential succession fight. Asked yesterday whether he had discussed a presidential run with Vance, Trump said the two talk about "a lot of things," before adding: "Maybe he won't run. I don't know who's going to run."

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Hegseth on "thin ice"

Photo illustration: Allie Carl/Axios. Photos via Getty Images

It's a de facto motto in the Trump White House: "Somebody's gotta take the fall." Lately, that person looks like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Axios' Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt write. Why it matters: From the unpopular war in Iran to his bad bipartisan relations with members of Congress, Hegseth's record has made him the most vulnerable member of Trump's Cabinet after Tuesday night's midterm shellacking. "Hegseth is definitely on thin ice," a Trump adviser told Axios. "It doesn't mean the president forces him out. But there are complications." As early as next week, the House could impeach Hegseth for allegedly defying Congress and illegally continuing the U.S. war in Iran. The measure is sponsored by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a vociferous critic of Israel and foreign wars. 🔭 Zoom in: Iran is at the center of both Hegseth's possible impeachment and Republicans' midterm collapse. Before Trump attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Hegseth was the most gung-ho about the conflict. Hegseth gave the rosiest projections about how quickly and easily it would be resolved, according to sources familiar with the discussions. By August, a senior administration official said, U.S. Central Command was reportedly soliciting new approaches to pressure Iran, suggesting that military leaders were still reassessing how to achieve strategic results. Trump stood by Hegseth yesterday, telling reporters the secretary is "doing a very good job." 👓 Between the lines: Trump has been known to praise an embattled Cabinet secretary, only to seek their ouster shortly thereafter. Go deeper: 4 factors weighing on Trump.

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🇮🇷 Trump's bad options in Iran

Photo illustration: Allie Carl/Axios. Photo: Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

Post-election, President Trump must decide whether to cut his losses on the Iran war and get a deal — or double down and go back to bombing, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Why it matters: His options are bad. Going back to war would be highly unpopular, exacerbating the energy crisis while probably not yielding a better military result. But a deal with Iran remains elusive. If the Iranians refuse to make concessions — or, sensing weakness after the president's political loss, even toughen their demands — Trump will have a hard time reaching an agreement. One of his former advisers told Axios: "It's one thing to lose the midterms. But Trump doesn't want to look like a loser twice." That's why some Trump advisers think he could ultimately decide to strike Iran again. Keep reading.

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Inflation, tariffs and a voter revolt: The midterm verdict on Trump’s economy President Donald Trump was publicly humbled by inflation in Tuesday’s midterm elections, as rising prices provoked a blistering set of losses for Republicans in House, Senate and gubernatorial races. Read more.

What to know: Most voters said that Trump’s own policies had smothered growth and drove costs even higher, according to The AP Voter Poll.  Consumer prices are up 3.7% over the past 12 months, compared to an inflation rate of 3% when Trump began his second term.      The president told reporters on Wednesday that the Iran war “drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term,” but he felt the choice to fight Iran was worth it because of its push for nuclear weapons. “If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again,” he said.   Nationwide, about 7 in 10 voters said the economy favors the wealthy, while only about 3 in 10 said it’s fair to everyday Americans. About 4 in 10 households with 2025 household incomes above $200,000 said that democracy was their top issue, putting the issue about even with the economy. Voters in most lower-income categories, on the other hand, clearly prioritized the economy.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Trump brags about his White House ballroom and seeks to deflect blame for GOP midterm drubbing Vance tries to distance himself from Iran war after GOP’s deep losses Trump’s lawyers to appear before appeals court as he fights hush money conviction Iranians celebrate setback for Trump in US election

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Trump-backed redistricting plan fails in midterms At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midterm election. Ultimately, it didn't work. Read more.

Why this matters: The redistricting plan fell flat in Alabama, Florida and Texas. It got scuttled by courts in Missouri and then firmly defeated by its voters Tuesday. And it got offset in California, where a retaliatory Democratic redistricting flipped all five of the Republican-held seats it targeted.   What started as a Republican redistricting effort could become a Democratic redistricting movement ahead of the presidential election. Maryland voters on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment that will make it easier for the state’s Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw districts to the party’s advantage. Democrats who made gains in numerous state legislatures Tuesday also could use that power for redistricting — most notably in Wisconsin, where districts were tilted toward Republicans. And Democratic lawmakers in New York already have taken an initial step toward congressional redistricting before the 2028 elections.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Which Senate, governors races are still uncalled by The Associated Press Democrat Hakeem Jeffries poised to make history as the first Black speaker of the House Young voters led a sharp shift toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms, The AP Voter Poll finds FACT FOCUS: False claims of rigged elections are limited as midterm vote heavily favors Democrats

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Trump enters his lame-duck era

Amid the euphoria, Democrats are debating how to turn their midterm victories into lasting change rather than another round of elections where politicians’ promises fall short.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, faces a challenging political reality: a lame-duck presidency, with two years left in office and his ability to push through legislation diminished. A Democratic-controlled Congress will give him less room to maneuver, but his veto power remains intact — and sure enough, he recently dubbed himself “Mr. Veto.”

Even Trump’s allies acknowledge that the final years of his presidency will be frustrating, and much will depend on whether either side is willing to compromise. Democrats are already setting priorities ahead of the new Congress convening in January, with affordability at the forefront — but accountability not far behind. California Rep. Robert Garcia, who is poised to lead the House Oversight Committee, insists that investigating the “corruption of Donald Trump and this administration” will be high on the agenda but won’t sidetrack efforts to bring down costs for Americans.

+ Read more: How Trump is expected to handle being a lame-duck president + What his setback could mean for Iran, Israel and Ukraine

+ Jake Tapper’s take: Is the MAGA/Trump era over?

+ For subscribers: Democrats debate what to do with their midterm mandate

[phkrause]

Trump’s arch nears approval

A rendering of the proposed triumphal arch in Washington, DC. (US Commission of Fine Arts)

President Trump’s proposed 250-foot triumphal arch in Washington, DC, is expected to receive final approval today, potentially clearing the way for construction to begin the same day. The decision could spark fresh legal challenges as the White House races to move forward before the new Democratic-controlled Congress takes power in 2027.

+ Read more: Trump’s arch is poised for final approval two days after the president’s election drubbing

+ GOP anxiety: Democratic wave also raises concerns over Alito and Supreme Court’s future

[phkrause]

AP Exclusive: Trump administration held talks with Iran on deporting Iranians during the war

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s administration held secret talks with Iran on deporting Iranians even as the war there dragged on, court documents obtained by The Associated Press show.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-immigration-deportation-flights-emails-1f245367d432b2683a546936014a1f90?