2025/26/27/28 Primaries & General Elections

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A democratic socialist in Wisconsin tests how far left voters want to go in a battleground state

Over the last month, Democratic socialists have notched victories in the liberal strongholds of New York City, Washington, D.C., and Denver. Read More.

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💰 AIPAC's next test

AIPAC is spending big in Missouri to quash former Rep. Cori Bush's attempted comeback, but Bush's supporters are convinced this time it won't succeed.

Why it matters: The left has high hopes that Bush can ride a wave of anti-establishment energy to prevail in her rematch against Rep. Wesley Bell, who ousted her two years ago with AIPAC's help.

• 📺 United Democracy Project, AIPAC's super PAC, has spent $865,000 on television ads supporting Bell in Missouri's 1st District so far, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
• That makes it the biggest ad spender in the race so far, followed by the center-left New Democrat Coalition's PAC's $500,000 and the Bell campaign's $475,000.
• Bush's campaign has spent just $30,000 on ads, per AdImpact. No outside groups have spent money in support of her yet.

💥 Flashback: This all bears a striking resemblance to last cycle, when Bush was the incumbent and Bell, then a local prosecutor, was challenging her from the center. AIPAC spent more than $9 million to defeat Bush.

🤔 Yes, but: Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the left-wing group Justice Democrats, which is supporting Bush, said things will be different this cycle.

• "Since they bought this seat last cycle, AIPAC has become a kiss of death to the politicians they support," Andrabi said.
• Bush is "the model for so many candidates this cycle of exactly the type of fighter against the corporate establishment that Democratic voters are demanding and electing."
• The former lawmaker told us: "People are really upset that so much money came into our district and was used to influence who became the representative this Congress."

⏰ There's still time before the Aug. 4 primary for the cavalry to come to Bush's aid as it has for DSA-aligned candidates in Colorado, New York and elsewhere this year.

• Justice Democrats, which spent $2 million supporting Bush last cycle, "will be doing everything we can to help her take this seat back from AIPAC and deliver it to the people of St. Louis where it belongs," Andrabi said.

— Andrew Solender

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Donald Trump endorses 'Pillow Man' Mike Lindell for Minnesota governor

President Donald Trump has endorsed MyPillow founder Mike Lindell for Minnesota governor, praising him as “one of America’s greatest and most hard working Patriots” and giving formal backing to a fellow election denier a day before the Republican president delivers a national address he says will focus on election security. Read More.

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Democratic Senate candidate Alex Vindman touts his fundraising lead over Ashley Moody

Alex Vindman has a Democratic primary election he needs to get through against Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon next month, but his campaign is already fixated about running against Republican incumbent Ashley Moody in the general election in November.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/07/16/democratic-senate-candidate-alex-vindman-touts-his-fundraising-lead-over-ashley-moody/?

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⚡️ Supercharged House-Senate pipeline

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

The Senate is set for another big House infusion next year. Why it matters: The two chambers often clash over differing cultures and procedures. An influx of senators used to the faster, more confrontational politics of the House could create new headaches for Senate leaders. 🚨 At least five, and potentially as many as 13, current House members could become senators next year, though their paths vary widely. Competitive midterm races, retirements, primary challenges and senators running for governor have opened the door to fresh Senate blood. Driving the news: Several GOP House members are in the mix to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who died July 11, via a November special election. Reps. Russell Fry, Ralph Norman, Nancy Mace and Joe Wilson have either expressed interest in running for the seat or are viewed as potential candidates ahead of the Aug. 11 primary in reliably red South Carolina. 🤔 The intrigue: Some of the likeliest new GOP senators are hardline conservatives used to leveraging slim majorities, including Reps. Andy Barr (Ky.), Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Harriet Hageman (Wyo.). "Most incoming House members were active in [the conservative Republican Study Committee] when I chaired it, including Kevin Hern, who followed me as chair," Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told us. "Hopefully, they get to the Senate and maintain their fervor from the House in wanting the Senate to move and act differently and help shake it up." Zoom in: The members with some of the clearest paths to the Senate, in addition to Barr, Hern and Hageman: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) 👀 What to watch: Other House members face tougher primaries, more competitive general elections, or both. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson has a clear advantage in the race to succeed outgoing GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, but Republicans will need to spend there. In Massachusetts, Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton would first have to unseat Sen. Ed Markey in the primary. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas would face a competitive general election against former Republican Sen. John Sununu. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) first has to win her primary against progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who has led recent polls. Then she would have to hold on to a battleground state against presumptive former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) faces a tough bid to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.). Both Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) have expressed interest in Sen. Marsha Blackburn's (R-Tenn.) seat if she is elected governor. Blackburn, as governor, could appoint her successor. Bonus: There are also two recent but former House members with shots at the Senate — Rogers in Michigan and Mary Peltola in Alaska. 💬 What they're saying: Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who moved from the House to the Senate last cycle, notes how a single senator wields more power. "The structure forces engagement, requires listening and pushes ideas to be tested beyond a simple majority. Because of that, individual senators hold real power," he told us in a statement. "This is one of the clearest differences between the Senate and the House. In the House, power is centralized," he continued. "Having served there, I saw how difficult it is for an individual member to shape major legislation." The House-to-Senate pipeline is common. Forty-four current senators were previously House members. In the 2024 election cycle, seven House members were elected to the Senate. In 2022, three were. And in 2020, just two were.  — Stef W. Kight

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🌵 Arizona GOP showdown

Data: Axios research; Chart: Kathleen Hunter/Axios The next test for House Republicans seeking statewide office this year comes Tuesday in Arizona, where Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert are facing off in the state's gubernatorial primary. Why it matters: 2026 has so far been a rough year for House Republicans seeking statewide office. Four of them have already lost gubernatorial primary bids. Polls show Biggs, who has President Trump's endorsement, with a solid lead in the battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. In June, neither Rep. Nancy Mace nor Rep. Ralph Norman qualified for South Carolina's gubernatorial runoff. Rep. Dusty Johnson and Randy Feenstra also fell short in their gubernatorial primary bids in South Dakota and Iowa, respectively. The poor showings are among the warning bells flashing for incumbents across the board. Serving in the House has historically been viewed as a solid stepping stone to higher office. The House has broken the record this year for the most retirements in the 2000s (you'd have to go back to 1992 to find more). — Kathleen Hunter

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David Crowley reenters battleground Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary with Gov. Evers’ backing

Two weeks after shuttering his bid for Wisconsin governor, David Crowley reentered the state's Democratic primary on Saturday, with the Milwaukee County executive boasting a last-minute backing from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers in a seeming move to best position the party for success in November. Read More.

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The hate election

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Republicans admit their midterm forecast is bleak. But they're clinging to two hopes: voters' fear and loathing of Democrats, Axios' Marc Caputo reports. "It's going to be a hate election," a Republican tied to President Trump's political operation told Axios. "Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with." So watch for the GOP to play up swing voters' fears that Democrats would go too far left if they won control of the House and/or Senate — arguing that "yeah, we suck, but they're worse," as one GOP pollster put it. Why it matters: There's broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections harder by not focusing on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation. Trump's prime-time speech Thursday night about China's alleged influence campaign targeting U.S. voters six years ago did little to assuage those concerns. "I have yet to understand how we win the midterms by talking about what happened in 2020," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Axios. 🔎 Zoom in: Trump hopes his speech will pressure Congress to pass his controversial SAVE America Act and energize his base. But GOP pollsters and election pros outside the White House say the message is falling on deaf ears. "We've studied this, and it's not a winner," said a second Republican pollster working on multiple races nationwide. "Our research shows people want the president to make their life better, and they don't believe he has." The pollster's data now indicate Democrats could wind up with a seven-seat majority in the House, where Republicans have a six-seat edge. Trump's net approval rating is 10 points underwater. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll out Thursday showed Trump's net approval rating was even worse among registered voters: -19%. 👀 Friction point: Democrats also have poor favorability ratings. And Republicans plan to use the Democrats' Tea Party-like revolt by progressives to paint the entire party as radicals who can't be trusted to govern. 📉 Reality check: Both political parties have similar (low) approval ratings, according to a Pew Research Center poll. A majority of voters consistently view Trump as dishonest (even in red states, including Texas). And Republicans counting on voters hating liberal Democrats more than them might consider this: A CNBC poll out Friday found that voters now are more likely to be turned off by a MAGA candidate than a democratic socialist.

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😎 AOC's Obama vibes

DETROIT — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's message on the campaign trail increasingly echoes Barack Obama's early rhetoric during his 2008 campaign for president.

🧐 Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez is broadening her pitch beyond revolutionary democratic socialism to something closer to Obama's "Change You Can Believe In" ahead of a potential 2028 run for the White House.

• Former senior Obama adviser David Axelrod also hears the parallels, telling Axios: "Folks forget how much the Obama campaign in 2008 was an insurgency against the broken politics of those times. So AOC's words, while her own, are familiar in spirit."

🚙 Driving the news: Campaigning in Michigan this weekend for progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, Ocasio-Cortez argued for liberal policies while making a more universal case against politics-as-usual.

• "Is the answer to our problems to turn to the same playbook over and over again?" she asked a crowd of Democrats here. "A playbook that says in order to win we must be defenders of the same status quo that is drowning us and tells us the aspiration to change our government and the ambition to even try is foolish? No, it is not foolish, Michigan."
• 🌽 That recalled Obama in 2007, telling Democrats in Iowa that "the same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do in this election.… That's why I am asking you to stop settling for what the cynics say we have to accept. In this election — in this moment — let us reach for what we know is possible."

AOC also channeled Obama's "hope and change" rhetoric while campaigning in Montana in May, telling voters to "ask your skeptical neighbor to believe. It's the only thing that we have. Our hope is the only thing that creates change, and that's why so many people try to talk us out of it."

• El-Sayed told me ahead of his rally with Ocasio-Cortez in Lansing, Mich., that when he first heard Obama speak, "I didn't know politics would sound like that, and I think for a lot of people who are listening to what she has to say, I think they're feeling the same way."

🩺 Zoom in: Ocasio-Cortez embraces some of Obama's themes, but believes in more left-wing policies like Medicare for All, a moratorium on building the data centers powering AI, more skepticism of trade deals, and more.

• She's not the only potential 2028 contender trying to position themself as a change candidate, but the 36-year-old New Yorker has less establishment baggage than others.

🥊 The big picture: Michigan's Senate race has become the key battleground for the left wing in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race.

• Left-wing Democrats have scored several primary victories this cycle, but mostly in places that are already strongly Democratic.
• If El-Sayed can win the primary in which he is being outspent 12 to 1 and then the general election in the swing state of Michigan, progressives will see it as validating their theory that they're actually more electable than centrist Democrats by pledging to shake up the status quo.
• It also would give AOC, or another progressive, an electability argument in a 2028 presidential primary.

Between the lines: Ocasio-Cortez's allies and her skeptics alike believe she has the ability to broaden Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' progressive coalition.

• They argue she's less rigid and more pragmatic, which has led to a less hostile relationship with the Democratic Party's establishment (moves that also have attracted left-wing critics).
• AOC has been more selective than Sanders in making endorsements this year. She didn't back Graham Platner's Senate bid in Maine, and so avoided the fallout from his withdrawal from the race amid a sexual assault accusation.
• 🤺 Sanders also had a more contentious relationship with Obama: He was critical of Obama's administration particularly on issues such as trade. Sanders' 2016 White House campaign against Hillary Clinton was in many ways a critique of the administration.
• A person familiar with Ocasio-Cortez's relationship with Obama said the former president has been impressed with her abilities as a communicator and that they've had a few positive engagements behind the scenes.

Some progressives already believe Ocasio-Cortez could win the presidency.

• Shawn Fain — president of the United Auto Workers, which has endorsed El-Sayed — told Axios he believes AOC could "definitely" win a state like Michigan and also win the White House. "I believe she could," he said.
• 👷‍♀️ "It's going to come down to who working-class people believe is going to represent their interest, and who they perceive is going to fight for them."

Read more.

— Alex Thompson

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Troy Jackson gains momentum in Democrats’ race for Maine’s US Senate seat The former state legislator moved into a strong position to replace Graham Platner after several of his opponents dropped out Sunday. Read more.

What to know: The Democrats have been scrambling to pick a new candidate since Platner withdrew from the race after a woman accused him of sexual assault, which he denied.   Over the weekend Jackson’s campaign touted they had secured hundreds of delegates who had promised to back him at the convention, including all of their preferred delegates for Maine's most populous county, Cumberland. His strength caused many of his opponents to withdraw. A nominating convention will meet July 25 to select a new candidate to face Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in November.

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At Leadership Blue, Pete Buttigieg says Florida Democrats can win in November

Leaders of the Florida Democratic Party believe they can break the GOP’s supermajorities in the Florida House and Senate in November. And every indication is that Donald Trump’s unpopularity will hurt his party in November. But there’s ample cause for caution. "When it's proven something doesn't work, one usually tries something else," former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during a party gathering over the weekend. But Republicans aren't doing that — they're just trying to change the rules," he continued, referring to the congressional redistricting that went into law in May. Related: Moody leads Nixon by 8 points, Vindman by 10, in new poll of Florida Senate race   AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arizona’s state primary Arizona Republicans will choose a nominee in a state primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November. Voters across the state will also set the general election matchups for competitive U.S. House seats and for a full range of state and local offices. Read More.

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🌵 Trump allies win big in Arizona

President Trump's candidates cruised in two of Arizona's marquee primaries yesterday:

1. Rep. Andy Biggs, a former House Freedom Caucus chair and fierce Trump ally, won the GOP's nomination for governor by 58 points (73% to 15%) over the more scandal-prone Rep. David Schweikert and will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
2. Former NFL kicker Jay Feely, also backed by Trump, beat back a more right-wing challenger for the competitive 1st Congressional District. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah leads the Democratic primary so far.

State Senate President Warren Petersen will now face one of the more vigorous Democratic attorneys general who has been challenging the Trump administration in court: Kris Mayes, who won her 2022 race by just 280 votes.

Vindman, Nixon weigh in on congressional vote to ban funding for Israel

U.S. support for Israel has become a flashpoint in Democratic politics this summer.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/07/21/vindman-nixon-weigh-in-on-congressional-vote-to-ban-funding-for-israel/?

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Amish Shah wins Arizona Democratic congressional primary in a blow to the party establishment Shah, an emergency physician, won the primary Wednesday in a hotly contested district, delivering another defeat to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which backed a rival, as more voters reject the preferences of party leaders in Washington. Read more.

Why this matters: “I wasn’t exactly my party’s pick,” Shah told supporters Tuesday night. “And I was willing to stand up to that establishment. And that’s what the voters of this district want.” Antiestablishment fervor has spooked congressional leaders, who fear that swing voters will see some insurgent candidates as too extreme and squander Democrats’ opportunity to take advantage of Trump’s unpopularity.   Shah will face Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL player who was endorsed by Trump in the fall. Before becoming political opponents, Feely and Shah were part of the same team: the New York Jets. Shah was a doctor on the sidelines, while Feely was the kicker.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms   Republican Hilton tells Californians they can hate Trump but still vote for him in governor’s race

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Nearly 150,000 mail ballots rejected in California primary despite efforts to count every vote According to state data, 1.73% of all mail ballots were rejected in the June election. It's a spike from recent elections even as the state attempts to make voting easier with the goal of boosting participation and counting every ballot. Read more.

What to know: California has become notorious for its ponderously slow vote counts that can drag on for weeks and sometimes longer, largely the result of multiple changes over the years that were intended to increase turnout but have done little to achieve that. Among the changes: Every voter receives a mail-in ballot that can arrive at an election office seven days late and still be counted, provided the envelope is postmarked by Election Day.   Yet even with that generous week-long window, the primary driver of the higher rejection numbers is late-arriving ballots, according to data compiled by the secretary of state’s office. Voting experts suspect the main problem is postmarks on ballots that came after Election Day, making them ineligible to be counted. The culprit could be U.S. Postal Service changes that might affect the timing of when postmarks are applied.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Alaska sends 3,000 letters asking voters to verify their citizenship ahead of this year’s elections   FACT FOCUS: Posts falsely claim Obama urged noncitizens to vote in 2016   Federal judges allow new Tennessee congressional map that splits majority-Black district in Memphis

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Talarico is trying to win back Hispanics along the Texas border who swung toward the GOP

The black campaign bus with “Talarico for Texas” across its side came to a steaming stop at Memo’s Restaurant along the U.S.-Mexico border. Bibi Valdez’s eyes lit up. She marched in heels over to the bus, phone camera trained on its door, chatting about the locals whose political leanings shifted two years ago. Read More.

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100 days 'til Election Day

Data: Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals We're 100 days out from the '26 midterms. There are 18 true toss-up races for the House and four for the Senate, according to the latest ratings by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Axios' Hans Nichols tells us what he's hearing on the Hill: The House environment favors the Dems. The terrain favors Republicans. The same is broadly true on the Senate side — except the structural advantages are even greater for Republicans, Hans writes. THE HOUSE: Currently 218 Rs, 212 Ds, 1 independent and 4 vacancies. 🫏 Why Democrats are upbeat: The polls. The latest Fox News poll has Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot. Toss in Democratic enthusiasm — and Democratic candidates outperforming 2024 nominee Kamala Harris in the vast majority of special elections — and you can see why House Republicans are privately so nervous. The cost of living. Yes, inflation has cooled. But prices have risen during the first two years of President Trump's current term, and that's especially true on the one billboard everyone sees — gas prices. The real political gift for Democrats is the direct link between $4-a-gallon gasoline and the unpopular war in Iran that Trump launched. 🐘 Why Republicans are cautiously optimistic: Redistricting. Add up all the mid-cycle redistricting in nine states, squint through a Republican lens, and you'll see nine new GOP seats. Put on Democratic glasses and assume Republicans are renting a few of those seats (especially in mostly Hispanic parts of the Rio Grande Valley) instead of owning them, and it looks closer to six seats. Either way, Republicans like where they ended up in the redistricting wars of 2026. 🌽 One key battleground: For House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the road to the majority runs through Iowa, which has been hit hard by inflation and retaliatory agriculture tariffs. On a good night this year, Democrats could pick up two seats. But if Republicans hold all four seats, it's hard to see Democrats winning the gavel. THE SENATE: Currently 53 Rs, 45 Ds, and 2 independents who caucus with Ds. 👀 Why Republicans are upbeat: Democrats need to flip four seats — with North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio presenting the clearest path. In Maine, after populist Graham Platner flamed out, Democrats have an untested statewide candidate, ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, against a proven winner, Sen. Susan Collins. If Democrats lose Maine, they'll need to win in three double-digit Trump states. If they lose Maine and Michigan, make that four states Trump won handily. ⚡ This brings us to the final wildcard of the Democratic primary season: the Aug. 4 showdown between Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive insurgent Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Stevens' money advantage is staggering — $50 million to $1 million on the PAC front in the last two months. And yet the race is tied in the polls. Many establishment Democrats think El-Sayed — who has the support of progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — is too far left to win a general election. El-Sayed's run for Senate is something of a proving ground for AOC, who's weighing a bid for Senate or president in 2028.

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It's on! Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson

Troy Jackson, a former state lawmaker and logger, won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Maine yesterday and will face longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November.

• Jackson, 58, will need to convince the state's large independent voting bloc that it's time to replace Collins, 73.

Jackson is a former Maine Senate president and fifth-generation logger from rural northern Maine. He campaigned alongside Graham Platner and was a favorite among progressives to replace him, AP reports.

• Republicans immediately launched an ad campaign accusing Jackson of having a volatile temper and linking him to Platner. The Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans' super PAC, plans to spend over $42 million against Jackson.

Keep reading.