2025/26/27/28 Primaries & General Elections

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🌰 GOP's red-hot Ohio mess

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Ohio, the red state that helped fuel President Trump's political comeback — and launched his presumed heir, JD Vance, onto the national stage — has become one of the GOP's biggest headaches for the midterms, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes. Why it matters: Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-class rebellion. The races giving Republicans the most heartburn: 1. The Miller debacle. The most immediate concern is the race in northeastern Ohio's normally red 7th House District, where Rep. Max Miller faces allegations that he abused his ex-wife and daughter, which Miller has denied. The ex-wife he's accused of abusing is Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). 🚨 Trump, who previously called the allegations a family matter, phoned Miller yesterday and expressed worries about his candidacy, three sources briefed on the call told Axios. "It's not looking good for you," the president told Miller, the sources said. "I'm hearing from people you're not going to win." Miller told Trump he's staying in the race. Strategists from both parties agree the allegations have helped Democrat Brian Poindexter run neck-and-neck with Miller. 2. The Senate race. Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) looks to be in a dead heat with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Polling averages and prediction markets give Brown an edge. Brown, a populist-minded Democrat who served three terms before losing his seat to Moreno in 2024, has outraised Husted by nearly 3 to 1. 3. The governor's race. Polls show former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a toss-up race against Democrat Amy Acton. Ramaswamy, an Ivy League-educated former biotech investor, has struggled to win over blue-collar voters.

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🗳️ Shock Texas polls: Talarico leads Paxton

Three consecutive polls show Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in that state's crucial Senate race, Axios' Hans Nichols and Marc Caputo write.

• The latest, out this morning from Texas Southern University, has Talarico up 47%-45%.
• In the past week, a Fox News poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.

Why it matters: Talarico's lead is within the margin of error. But there are troubling signs for the GOP nominee — even if the Republican establishment isn't panicking yet.

• Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser, told us: "Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream."

🔬 Zoom in: Demographically, Paxton appears to be taking a one-two punch, according to the Texas Southern survey.

• He's underperforming badly with white voters (60% of the modeled midterm electorate) and Latino voters (21% of the electorate).
• Paxton is winning white voters by just 14 points, the survey found, low for a Texas Republican. President Trump won them by 33 in Texas two years ago, according to exit polls.
• Trump carried Hispanic voters by 10 points. Talarico is winning them by 19, Texas Southern found.

Explore the TSU data ... Keep reading.

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A key round of 2026 midterm primaries gets underway today as voters head to the polls in five states: Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia and Washington. Many will be watching Michigan, where Rep. Haley Stevens faces Abdul El-Sayed for the Democratic Senate nomination. Democrats view this race as critical to their hopes of reclaiming the Senate majority, but other competitive contests across the country could also carry national implications. Here's what to watch in today's elections.

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries

Back with us today is national politics reporter, Meg Kinnard. It’s been a busy time for Meg as the race to the November midterms heat up. Fresh off reporting from Lindsey Graham’s funeral in Washington and back home in South Carolina, Meg is with us this morning to talk about today’s primaries.

What do you think today’s races will tell us about where things are heading in the November midterms? Today isn’t just about the question of which party will have majorities in Congress; it’s about what kind of nominees are headed in that general election. The Michigan Senate race is the latest vanguard testing progressives’ heft within the Democratic Party this cycle, and a win by Abdul El-Sayed over Haley Stevens would give progressives their biggest victory to date this year.   If readers only follow one thing from today’s races, what should it be? Michigan is holding today’s most-watched contest, and it’s also one of the earliest states holding a Democratic presidential primary in 2028. How Democrats vote today in picking their Senate nominee could telegraph where they’re leaning when it comes to selecting someone to lead the party nationally in the next race for the White House — which begins in earnest as soon as the midterms are over!

If you want more from Meg, she also writes AP’s political newsletter Ground Game. Subscribe here. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Full preview of the Kansas, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri and Washington races Michigan Democrats pick between moderate and progressive in high-profile Senate primary  Trump touted his tariffs in Michigan despite rising costs. Even some of his supporters are worried Former progressive Squad member Cori Bush attempts political comeback against Missouri US Rep. Bell

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📺 It's Kornacki time

NBC News is launching a new franchise centered on Steve Kornacki's signature data-driven analysis, Kornacki tells Axios' Sara Fischer exclusively.

📊 "Data Dive With Steve Kornacki" will bring Kornacki's analysis to a weekly, subscriber-exclusive newsletter.

• It'll launch with a heavy focus on the 2026 midterms, offering readers a detailed breakdown of election numbers, trends and data points.

Kornacki tells Axios: "I'm trying to give folks who are reading it a real sense of — when they start watching those results on primary night — where to be looking, what to be looking for and what the trends have been that might explain how this thing is going to shake out."

• Keep reading.

Michigan looks left

Michigan progressives awoke today after a banner night: Abdul El-Sayed leads the uncalled Democratic Senate primary, Will Lawrence won a battleground House nomination, and Donavan McKinney threatens to oust Rep. Shri Thanedar.

• Of the three Democratic primaries, only Lawrence's victory has been called. A sweep would signal the left's growing strength in a key swing state.

🩺 El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, clung to a narrow lead over four-term Rep. Haley Stevens — 48.6%–47.3% with 95% of the vote counted. The two are fighting to take on Republican Mike Rogers for Michigan's open Senate seat, a must-win for Democrats to gain Senate control.

• 🌅 Sunrise Movement co-founder Lawrence upset a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a former Navy SEAL in the 7th District, winning the nomination by 15 points. Lawrence will try to flip the swing seat held by GOP Rep. Tom Barrett. Go deeper.
• 🌹 State Rep. McKinney, a DSA member backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is up this morning 51.6%–48.4% against sitting Democratic Rep. Thanedar in a solidly blue seat. A McKinney victory would make Thanedar the latest House Democrat toppled by the left.

Both El-Sayed and Stevens spoke to supporters, saying the vote count could continue well into today. NBC called the race for El-Sayed ("a Midwest victory for the left"). AP and CNN held off, citing a narrow comeback path for Stevens.

• The big picture: The bitter and expensive campaign became the most notable proxy battle between the Democratic Party's establishment and progressive wings. El-Sayed has said he's not a democratic socialist, but is backed by many of the group's members. Latest from AP.

In Missouri, establishment Democrats scored a rare win: Rep. Wesley Bell easily turned back former Rep. Cori Bush's comeback attempt to represent St. Louis. Go deeper.

• Nationwide Tuesday takeaways.

Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) told CNN's Jake Tapper he won't abandon his reelection campaign despite allegations he abused his ex-wife and their toddler daughter, which he denies.

• Miller likened his resolve to President Trump's response to the leak of the "Access Hollywood" tape: "In 2016, when President Donald J. Trump faced the most extreme allegations in the world that hit him day after day after day, and people in the media, very much like yourself and others, said that he would have no shot at winning, that he should not be the president of the United States. But guess what? He stayed in, and he was resilient."

The N.Y. Times' Jonathan Swan tweeted that it's "one of the most astonishing interviews I've ever seen with a politician. hard to watch but worth watching in full. power of preparation."

• Watch a clip ... CNN video.

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💡 Power of reporting

Screenshot: @RepChuckEdwards/X

New at 3:32 a.m. ET: Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) dropped his reelection bid early today after the House Ethics Committee concluded he violated House rules over sexual harassment and creating a hostile work environment, and recommended his censure. Edwards' exit follows a series of scoops by Axios' Kate Santaliz showing that Edwards singled out two young female staffers in their 20s for special attention that multiple sources described as inappropriate. How it happened: Pressure has mounted on Edwards to step aside since the Ethics Committee released its report Monday, amid the rising possibility that Dems could flip his seat in November. The ethics panel's findings corroborated revelations by Axios, including handwritten correspondence, personal gifts, drinking outings, and casino trips. Keep reading.

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Election night takeaways

The results are in from most of Tuesday's primaries, but one of the biggest races remains unsettled. Votes are still being counted today in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, with progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens locked in a tight contest that's become an early test of where Democrats want to take the party. Voters on Tuesday also picked nominees in a series of key gubernatorial and congressional races across Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Virginia. Here are early takeaways.   Key Democratic primary for Michigan’s Senate seat hung on a razor’s edge The bitter and expensive race became the most notable proxy battle between the Democratic Party’s establishment and progressive wings, with moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens against progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed. The race was too early to call early Wednesday with only a few percentage points separating the two candidates. Read more.  Why this matters: Candidates from the party’s left-flank — including democratic socialists — have found surprising success in the party’s U.S. House primaries, including in New York and Denver. Those races, however, were in deep-blue cities. Michigan has a purple hue. A progressive victory there would be more significant.   Whoever wins will need to bring splintered factions back into the fold to beat former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, in a must-win Senate race for Democrats. More primaries took place in Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Michigan primary results All the election results More on Michigan’s Democratic Senate race Photos of the election Virginia Democrats pick establishment nominees Missouri US Rep. Wesley Bell wins a Democratic primary rematch against former Rep. Cori Bush