2025/26/27/28 Primaries & General Elections

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🌰 GOP's red-hot Ohio mess

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Ohio, the red state that helped fuel President Trump's political comeback — and launched his presumed heir, JD Vance, onto the national stage — has become one of the GOP's biggest headaches for the midterms, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes. Why it matters: Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-class rebellion. The races giving Republicans the most heartburn: 1. The Miller debacle. The most immediate concern is the race in northeastern Ohio's normally red 7th House District, where Rep. Max Miller faces allegations that he abused his ex-wife and daughter, which Miller has denied. The ex-wife he's accused of abusing is Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). 🚨 Trump, who previously called the allegations a family matter, phoned Miller yesterday and expressed worries about his candidacy, three sources briefed on the call told Axios. "It's not looking good for you," the president told Miller, the sources said. "I'm hearing from people you're not going to win." Miller told Trump he's staying in the race. Strategists from both parties agree the allegations have helped Democrat Brian Poindexter run neck-and-neck with Miller. 2. The Senate race. Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) looks to be in a dead heat with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Polling averages and prediction markets give Brown an edge. Brown, a populist-minded Democrat who served three terms before losing his seat to Moreno in 2024, has outraised Husted by nearly 3 to 1. 3. The governor's race. Polls show former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a toss-up race against Democrat Amy Acton. Ramaswamy, an Ivy League-educated former biotech investor, has struggled to win over blue-collar voters.

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🗳️ Shock Texas polls: Talarico leads Paxton

Three consecutive polls show Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in that state's crucial Senate race, Axios' Hans Nichols and Marc Caputo write.

• The latest, out this morning from Texas Southern University, has Talarico up 47%-45%.
• In the past week, a Fox News poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.

Why it matters: Talarico's lead is within the margin of error. But there are troubling signs for the GOP nominee — even if the Republican establishment isn't panicking yet.

• Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser, told us: "Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream."

🔬 Zoom in: Demographically, Paxton appears to be taking a one-two punch, according to the Texas Southern survey.

• He's underperforming badly with white voters (60% of the modeled midterm electorate) and Latino voters (21% of the electorate).
• Paxton is winning white voters by just 14 points, the survey found, low for a Texas Republican. President Trump won them by 33 in Texas two years ago, according to exit polls.
• Trump carried Hispanic voters by 10 points. Talarico is winning them by 19, Texas Southern found.

Explore the TSU data ... Keep reading.

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A key round of 2026 midterm primaries gets underway today as voters head to the polls in five states: Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia and Washington. Many will be watching Michigan, where Rep. Haley Stevens faces Abdul El-Sayed for the Democratic Senate nomination. Democrats view this race as critical to their hopes of reclaiming the Senate majority, but other competitive contests across the country could also carry national implications. Here's what to watch in today's elections.

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries

Back with us today is national politics reporter, Meg Kinnard. It’s been a busy time for Meg as the race to the November midterms heat up. Fresh off reporting from Lindsey Graham’s funeral in Washington and back home in South Carolina, Meg is with us this morning to talk about today’s primaries.

What do you think today’s races will tell us about where things are heading in the November midterms? Today isn’t just about the question of which party will have majorities in Congress; it’s about what kind of nominees are headed in that general election. The Michigan Senate race is the latest vanguard testing progressives’ heft within the Democratic Party this cycle, and a win by Abdul El-Sayed over Haley Stevens would give progressives their biggest victory to date this year.   If readers only follow one thing from today’s races, what should it be? Michigan is holding today’s most-watched contest, and it’s also one of the earliest states holding a Democratic presidential primary in 2028. How Democrats vote today in picking their Senate nominee could telegraph where they’re leaning when it comes to selecting someone to lead the party nationally in the next race for the White House — which begins in earnest as soon as the midterms are over!

If you want more from Meg, she also writes AP’s political newsletter Ground Game. Subscribe here. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Full preview of the Kansas, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri and Washington races Michigan Democrats pick between moderate and progressive in high-profile Senate primary  Trump touted his tariffs in Michigan despite rising costs. Even some of his supporters are worried Former progressive Squad member Cori Bush attempts political comeback against Missouri US Rep. Bell

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📺 It's Kornacki time

NBC News is launching a new franchise centered on Steve Kornacki's signature data-driven analysis, Kornacki tells Axios' Sara Fischer exclusively.

📊 "Data Dive With Steve Kornacki" will bring Kornacki's analysis to a weekly, subscriber-exclusive newsletter.

• It'll launch with a heavy focus on the 2026 midterms, offering readers a detailed breakdown of election numbers, trends and data points.

Kornacki tells Axios: "I'm trying to give folks who are reading it a real sense of — when they start watching those results on primary night — where to be looking, what to be looking for and what the trends have been that might explain how this thing is going to shake out."

• Keep reading.

Michigan looks left

Michigan progressives awoke today after a banner night: Abdul El-Sayed leads the uncalled Democratic Senate primary, Will Lawrence won a battleground House nomination, and Donavan McKinney threatens to oust Rep. Shri Thanedar.

• Of the three Democratic primaries, only Lawrence's victory has been called. A sweep would signal the left's growing strength in a key swing state.

🩺 El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, clung to a narrow lead over four-term Rep. Haley Stevens — 48.6%–47.3% with 95% of the vote counted. The two are fighting to take on Republican Mike Rogers for Michigan's open Senate seat, a must-win for Democrats to gain Senate control.

• 🌅 Sunrise Movement co-founder Lawrence upset a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a former Navy SEAL in the 7th District, winning the nomination by 15 points. Lawrence will try to flip the swing seat held by GOP Rep. Tom Barrett. Go deeper.
• 🌹 State Rep. McKinney, a DSA member backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is up this morning 51.6%–48.4% against sitting Democratic Rep. Thanedar in a solidly blue seat. A McKinney victory would make Thanedar the latest House Democrat toppled by the left.

Both El-Sayed and Stevens spoke to supporters, saying the vote count could continue well into today. NBC called the race for El-Sayed ("a Midwest victory for the left"). AP and CNN held off, citing a narrow comeback path for Stevens.

• The big picture: The bitter and expensive campaign became the most notable proxy battle between the Democratic Party's establishment and progressive wings. El-Sayed has said he's not a democratic socialist, but is backed by many of the group's members. Latest from AP.

In Missouri, establishment Democrats scored a rare win: Rep. Wesley Bell easily turned back former Rep. Cori Bush's comeback attempt to represent St. Louis. Go deeper.

• Nationwide Tuesday takeaways.

Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) told CNN's Jake Tapper he won't abandon his reelection campaign despite allegations he abused his ex-wife and their toddler daughter, which he denies.

• Miller likened his resolve to President Trump's response to the leak of the "Access Hollywood" tape: "In 2016, when President Donald J. Trump faced the most extreme allegations in the world that hit him day after day after day, and people in the media, very much like yourself and others, said that he would have no shot at winning, that he should not be the president of the United States. But guess what? He stayed in, and he was resilient."

The N.Y. Times' Jonathan Swan tweeted that it's "one of the most astonishing interviews I've ever seen with a politician. hard to watch but worth watching in full. power of preparation."

• Watch a clip ... CNN video.

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💡 Power of reporting

Screenshot: @RepChuckEdwards/X

New at 3:32 a.m. ET: Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) dropped his reelection bid early today after the House Ethics Committee concluded he violated House rules over sexual harassment and creating a hostile work environment, and recommended his censure. Edwards' exit follows a series of scoops by Axios' Kate Santaliz showing that Edwards singled out two young female staffers in their 20s for special attention that multiple sources described as inappropriate. How it happened: Pressure has mounted on Edwards to step aside since the Ethics Committee released its report Monday, amid the rising possibility that Dems could flip his seat in November. The ethics panel's findings corroborated revelations by Axios, including handwritten correspondence, personal gifts, drinking outings, and casino trips. Keep reading.

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Election night takeaways

The results are in from most of Tuesday's primaries, but one of the biggest races remains unsettled. Votes are still being counted today in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, with progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens locked in a tight contest that's become an early test of where Democrats want to take the party. Voters on Tuesday also picked nominees in a series of key gubernatorial and congressional races across Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Virginia. Here are early takeaways.   Key Democratic primary for Michigan’s Senate seat hung on a razor’s edge The bitter and expensive race became the most notable proxy battle between the Democratic Party’s establishment and progressive wings, with moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens against progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed. The race was too early to call early Wednesday with only a few percentage points separating the two candidates. Read more.  Why this matters: Candidates from the party’s left-flank — including democratic socialists — have found surprising success in the party’s U.S. House primaries, including in New York and Denver. Those races, however, were in deep-blue cities. Michigan has a purple hue. A progressive victory there would be more significant.   Whoever wins will need to bring splintered factions back into the fold to beat former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, in a must-win Senate race for Democrats. More primaries took place in Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Michigan primary results All the election results More on Michigan’s Democratic Senate race Photos of the election Virginia Democrats pick establishment nominees Missouri US Rep. Wesley Bell wins a Democratic primary rematch against former Rep. Cori Bush

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How Abdul El-Sayed went from political oblivion to progressive breakthrough in Michigan Senate race

DETROIT (AP) — Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official who harnessed Democratic frustration with the party establishment, narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary, setting up a crucial test for progressives in a key battleground state.

https://apnews.com/article/michigan-primary-senate-elsayed-stevens-60c79349b60ffbf24a34d60b76e130ed?

Virginia voters picked two establishment Democrats to take on Republican incumbents in congressional districts the party hopes to flip in November. Go deeper.

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Tennessee’s state primary

Tennessee’s senior U.S. senator eyes a job change in a state primary on Thursday while Memphis voters will choose their first U.S. House nominees under a new Republican-drawn congressional map that forced their longtime Democratic representative into retirement. Read More.

House Democrats add 12 solidly Trump districts to their midterm election target list

House Democrats are adding a dozen Republican-held seats to their list of targets for the November midterms, expanding the national campaign map to districts Donald Trump won easily less than two years ago. Read More.

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Progressives jolt Dems in huge primary win

Abdul El-Sayed at a press conference in Detroit today. Photo: Finn Gomez/Getty Images Progressives scored their biggest win of the year in yesterday's Michigan Senate primary, Axios' Holly Otterbein writes. Left-wing outsider Abdul El-Sayed underperformed predictions, but his victory over moderate Rep. Haley Stevens was a rebuke to party leaders — and to big donors. 🥊 El-Sayed told supporters this morning, as AP called the race in his favor: "In the words of Muhammad Ali, we shook up the world." Our key takeaways from last night's results... 1. Progressives are laying the '28 groundwork. Progressives have been eager to show that they can carry a battleground state in the next presidential election. They'll now get a chance to prove that in November. 2. Money isn't everything. Stevens and her allies spent $65 million on ads, compared to $7.5 million by El-Sayed and his supporters. Stevens' loss is also a face-plant for AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby whose super PAC poured more than $30 million into the race against El-Sayed. 3. Bernie handed Chuck an "L." Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a progressive icon, went on a mission to elect progressives up and down the ticket this year — often opposing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's favorites, including Stevens. Abdul El-Sayed supporters cheer at an election watch party last night in Detroit. Photo: Sarah Rice/Bloomberg via Getty Images 4. The left had downballot muscle. Will Lawrence won a battleground House nomination, and Donavan McKinney ousted Rep. Shri Thanedar. 5. Republicans like the result. Recent polls suggest that former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP's Senate nominee, would fare better against El-Sayed than Stevens. Go deeper.

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Hawaii’s state primary

An ongoing corruption scandal involving Hawaii’s lieutenant governor looms over Saturday’s state primary as nine candidates jockey to replace her. Meanwhile, a longtime Democratic congressman who bucked his party and supported one of President Donald Trump’s top legislative priorities faces a tough primary challenge. Read More.   How Troy Jackson went from Maine logger to the Democratic nominee for Senate against Susan Collins Troy Jackson stood alongside a small group of loggers deep in the northern Maine woods and stared down State Police troopers who threatened to arrest them. Read More.

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💥 Testing Bernie's revolution for '28

Illustration: Aïda Amer / Axios. Stock: Getty Images

LA CROSSE, Wis. — Progressive insurgents Francesca Hong and Abdul El-Sayed want to shake up the next race for the White House — a notion that will likely petrify many top Democrats. Why it matters: They aren't running for president — they're vying for statewide office in presidential battlegrounds, and their campaigns are closely watched tests of the Bernie Sanders–style populism they want the party to embrace in 2028. It's a question that has haunted Democrats for a decade: Is America ready for a full-on left turn in politics, like what Sanders pitched when he ran for president in 2016? The prospect worries old-guard Democrats who fear Hong and El-Sayed can't win in November. 🚙 Driving the news: Hong, a self-described democratic socialist running for Wisconsin governor, is leading the polls for Tuesday's primary by double digits, as top Democrats try to stop her. She told us a win in November could boost progressive presidential hopefuls in the future. "A victory for our campaign is a victory for working-class people in Wisconsin and across the country — and it could signal to many candidates that we have common issues that we can be fighting for," Hong said. El-Sayed, Michigan's new Democratic nominee for Senate, went further in a Politico interview, prodding prospective 2028 candidates to embrace Medicare for All and other pieces of his populist agenda. "If not, I'm going to dog you up and down the state," he warned with a brash smile. 🔬 Zoom in: Progressives have long argued that Democrats twice lost the White House to Donald Trump not because voters see them as too far left, as many moderates believe, but because they're viewed as champions of a broken status quo. Now we're beginning to see what testing that theory looks like. To put the challenge into context: No progressive as closely aligned with Sanders as El-Sayed has won a battleground Senate race — and the U.S. has never elected a socialist governor. There was something of a split screen this week in the way many Democratic insiders responded to El-Sayed — whom party leaders are slowly warming to — and Hong, whom even several top progressives are keeping at arm's length. El-Sayed, a former public health official who campaigned on abolishing ICE and expanding Medicare to all Americans, signaled a willingness to reassure general election voters about his views on immigration while maintaining the pugilistic tone that helped him win a hard-fought primary. "We can have a secure border, we can enforce immigration policy, but we can do it without shooting people in the face or the back of the head," he said Friday. El-Sayed embraces the left but eschews the "democratic socialist" label, though many leading progressives who support him describe themselves that way. Many party bigwigs — mindful of Democrats' uphill fight to win control of the Senate — endorsed El-Sayed after his primary win. 😬 Hong's rollout onto the national political scene has been shakier. Hong is a restaurant owner-turned-state representative in Wisconsin whose shoestring campaign unexpectedly caught fire as she championed affordability and backed a moratorium on building data centers at a time when her opponents' campaigns were plagued by scandals. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is the chief Democratic candidate looking to stop her, backed by Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D). As Hong has garnered national attention, she's gone viral for being mealymouthed when asked on CNN about a past social media post in which she called to "cancel Thanksgiving." Following her in Wisconsin, we saw signs she was adapting her message as voters asked her about her old posts at stop after stop. "People care about the solutions, not just slogans and labels," she told us. Hong told Politico she had "some bad takes on Twitter," but "I've evolved, I've learned." She and El-Sayed have faced criticism over former comments supporting "defunding" the police, which they both have walked back — taking a page from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's playbook. Friction point: Some Democratic strategists who think Hong is too far left point out that progressive leaders Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed El-Sayed, but not Hong. Hong told us she hasn't sought their endorsements. Senior Democratic Governors Association officials said Friday they believe all of their party's primary candidates could defeat Rep. Tom Tiffany, the expected GOP nominee for Wisconsin governor. Republicans are treating El-Sayed and Hong much the same, casting both as extreme and out of touch. Reality check: Hong still needs to win her primary Tuesday. Crowley, who's seen a bump in the polls, argues that Hong would be a liability for Democrats in the fall. "People don't like socialists," he told us. The bottom line: Hong's and El-Sayed's success or failure could serve as a signal to Democratic primary voters as they weigh the electability of a progressive presidential candidate in 2028. 👀 AOC, who's considering a run for Senate or president, is sure to be watching. Read more. — Holly Otterbein

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🚀 Science group pushing Kelly to run

A liberal group working to elect scientists to public office has a 2028 message for Arizona Sen. — and former astronaut — Mark Kelly: Run, Kelly, run.

Why it matters: 314 Action Fund has raised its profile this cycle, elevating candidates with STEM backgrounds who've pitched themselves as a bulwark against public health cuts and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

• 💰 The organization said it raised more than $100 million over the past decade — including $25 million during the 2026 midterms, more than half of which it spent on this year's Democratic primaries.

Zoom in: Joshua Morrow, president of the 314 Action Fund, told Axios, "I'd love Mark Kelly to run" for president. "If Mark Kelly ran, we'd be there day one."

• Kelly has done events with 314 Action, and the group urged former Vice President Kamala Harris to pick him as her running mate in 2024. She chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz instead.
• 👩‍🔬 Morrow argued that scientist candidates are tapping into the electorate's hunger for "outsiders": "For so long the Democratic Party promoted the same type of candidate and the same type of person, and it's like, that doesn't work."
• As he put it, the cookie-cutter candidate is "white-guy lawyer."

Context: 314 Action Fund received funding from AIPAC's super PAC in 2024 that it used to help now-Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.), but it says it hasn't taken any money since then from the group, which has come under fire from many Democrats.

• Dexter has since disavowed AIPAC, and 314 Action Fund has backed some candidates this year who are sharp critics of Israel — including El-Sayed, a former public health official.

What they're saying: Kelly's team declined to comment. He has said that he's seriously considering a run for president in 2028.

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Midterms sprint

With several primaries still ahead, Democrats and Republicans are facing the familiar challenge of uniting their parties before the November midterms, when control of Congress will be at stake. The fight for the Senate has grown more complicated for Democrats, while Republicans face mounting obstacles to holding the House. That leaves both chambers in play, with President Donald Trump's historic unpopularity giving Democrats a potential advantage. The biggest midterm news last week — and arguably of the last few months — was left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed's narrow victory in the Michigan Democratic primary. Whether he can carry that victory into the general election could offer an important test of the Democratic Party's left flank and its influence in the years to come.   AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Carolina’s special primary to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham Ten Republicans will compete in a special primary election Tuesday to replace the late U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham on South Carolina's general election ballot. The candidates running to replace him include two congressmen, a former governor and Graham’s sister, now a U.S. senator appointed to serve out the final months of his current term. Read More.   AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary Minnesota Democrats will decide a competitive U.S. Senate primary Tuesday in another face-off between moderate and progressive candidates that could define the party’s identity heading into the midterm elections. Republicans will choose nominees they hope will end their 20-year drought in statewide elections. Read More.   AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin’s state primary Fresh on the heels of Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary win in Michigan, Wisconsin voters will decide another high-profile clash between the party’s establishment and progressive wings in a gubernatorial primary on Tuesday. Read More.

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Key races to watch today

A slate of primary elections today will offer another test of the Democratic Party’s ideological direction, with consequential races across the upper Midwest. In Wisconsin, 37-year-old democratic socialist Francesca Hong is favored to win the Democratic nomination for governor — offering an early look at how a swing state electorate might respond to the party’s shift leftward this fall. Minnesota also has a moderate-versus-progressive clash shaping up today between Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan for the Democratic Senate nomination. And in South Carolina, Trump’s endorsement power is again on the ballot as he backs Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, for a full term against a crowded field of Republican rivals.

+ Read more: What to watch in today’s primaries

+ Q&A: Have questions about the primaries? Ask CNN’s John King

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🗳️ Primary night pro tips

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey / Axios

Primary season is almost 80% over, and we're watching three big trends tonight. 🕵️‍♀️ Why it matters: The results will offer some of the last best clues about where the two parties are headed ahead of the midterms. 1. Minnesota Nice meets the Democratic proxy war 🥊 The fight between progressive and establishment Democrats got ugly in Maine and expensive in Michigan. In both states, the candidates backed by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren prevailed: Graham Platner in Maine, before his implosion, and El-Sayed in Michigan. The establishment can point to Iowa, where Josh Turek defeated Zach Wahls, who was generally positioned to his left. Now the fight moves to Minnesota. Progressives are lining up behind Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, while Rep. Angie Craig has drawn support from several ModSquad senators, including Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.). 2. The generational war among House Democrats Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), 78, is in danger of losing to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, 47. ⚡️ If the 14-term incumbent goes down, he would become the seventh House Democrat ousted in a primary this year — another sign of Democratic voters' willingness to turn the page on longtime incumbents. 3. The Trump endorsement test 🌟 Trump's endorsement has been worth its weight in gold in House primaries: Only Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) has lost after receiving his backing. Most of his Senate candidates have been on a glide path to victory. Tonight, however, the value of his endorsement faces a tougher test in South Carolina's special election to fill the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's seat. Trump is backing Graham's sister, interim Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.), but she faces two popular Republican members of Congress. If nobody clears 50%, the top two Republicans advance to an Aug. 25 runoff. — Hans Nichols

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Sen. Darline Graham, US Rep. Ralph Norman advance to GOP runoff for US Senate in South Carolina

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Sen. Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman have advanced to a runoff in South Carolina’s special Republican primary to replace the late Lindsey Graham in the U.S. Senate, one month after his sudden death.

https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-senate-primary-lindsey-graham-df041787564cdbc3668ad8619aad557e?

Progressive Democrats get another win in Minnesota US Senate primary

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday in the latest victory for an insurgent progressive over the party’s establishment.

https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-primary-flanagan-craig-lindell-senate-governor-bbadfd4d2a4a1184be74f75ed26b9b72?

David Crowley wins Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor over progressive Francesca Hong

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Moderate Democrat David Crowley won the Wisconsin primary for governor, defeating a democratic socialist who fell short while trying to deliver another win for progressives in a battleground state.

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-primary-governor-hong-socialist-acd872f6cf113e741291b9b47f9d9111?

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Socialist fever breaks

Democratic Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley (left) greets supporters at a campaign rally Monday in Milwaukee. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images In Wisconsin's Democratic primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley upset democratic socialist Francesca Hong, 39.8% to 39.4% — checking the progressive left's momentum after some polls showed her up by more than 20 points. Crowley must now prove the argument that powered his rise: that a mainstream Democrat gives the party a better chance in November against the election-denying, Trump-backed Rep. Tom Tiffany. 🗳️ Takeaways from last night's results: The race was the latest example of flawed polling in Democratic primaries. Polling showed Hong with a big lead. A democratic socialist came within about 3,000 votes of winning a major-party nomination for governor in one of America's premier swing states yesterday. So the result reflects both the left's rise and limits. Wisconsin's November election will be historic. Tiffany would be the first person who voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in Congress to become governor of a top swing state if he won. And Crowley would be the first Black governor in Wisconsin history. The progressive surge is still producing big wins: In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (59%) trounced Rep. Angie Craig (39.4%) by 20 points despite Craig's overwhelming money advantage and her pitch that a swing-district record made her more electable. Democrats nominated progressive Matt Little to replace Craig in Congress. 🏛️ Voters continue retiring aging longtime incumbents: 7th House Dem loses: Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), 78, a 14-termer, lost by 20+ points last night to his primary challenger, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, age 47 (54% to 33%). Larson is the 10th House member ousted in this year's primaries. Seven have been Dems, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Connecticut state Rep. Maryam Khan defeated a state senator with 22 years in the capitol. 26-year-old Eli Sabin defeated the state's longest-serving state House member. 🐘 On the right: Trump's endorsement failed to rescue one of his highest-profile allies. MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell lost the GOP governor nomination in Minnesota to state Speaker Lisa Demuth. But another of his candidates advanced: In South Carolina, Trump-endorsed Sen. Darline Graham (33%) and Rep. Ralph Norman (25%), a hardline conservative, move to an Aug. 25 runoff in the special Republican primary to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Go deeper. Tuesday's takeaways … Read more.

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Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries In Wisconsin, moderate Democrat David Crowley narrowly defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong, who was hoping to ride the wave of recent victories by progressive candidates, including Abdul El-Sayed in neighboring Michigan’s Senate race last week. Read more.

Why this matters: Hong’s loss in Wisconsin may have doused the momentum for progressive candidates, but it’s far from snuffing it out. A democratic socialist coming close to victory in a battleground state sends a clear message: There is unignorable angst among the party’s voters. Crowley’s margin of victory was less than 1 percentage point. Crowley, who is vying to become Wisconsin’s first Black governor, will face off in November against Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump.   Meanwhile in Minnesota, progressive candidate Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic Senate primary over the centrist Rep. Angie Craig.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ More on the Wisconsin primary Wisconsin Governor primary results Progressive Democrats get another win in Minnesota US Senate primary Sen. Darline Graham, US Rep. Ralph Norman advance to GOP runoff for US Senate in South Carolina Judge again bars Trump administration from implementing order that sought to limit mail voting Former Mayor Luke Bronin wins Democratic primary in Connecticut, ousting U.S. Rep. John Larson