2025/26/27/28 Primaries & General Elections

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🔮 Scoop: Rising in the '28 stakes

First-term Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) — who was a tough-on-crime state attorney general, and now is vice chair of the Joint Economic Committee — has grown close to Vice President Vance and is seen as a top prospect to become a potential 2028 running mate, Jim VandeHei reports in Axios C-Suite.

• We hear the VP views Schmitt, 51, as trustworthy, intelligent, articulate and a deft political operator. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is obviously the Trump favorite for Vance's #2, but he doesn't seem eager for that role.

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🤠 Texas group spends over $100M in two weeks

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images A new Texas PAC spent a staggering $131 million in just 17 days to boost struggling Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate battle, and tens of millions more could be on the way, Axios' Marc Caputo writes from new financial reports. Texas PAC, created last month, is affiliated with the GOP Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Senate Republicans. Why it matters: This is a race where money may not make the difference. In a "craptastic" environment for GOP candidates nationwide, Paxton's many scandals have left him particularly vulnerable. One analyst said on X: "The election version of the Battle of Verdun, folks." 🗳️ Zoom out: Paxton, the state attorney general, could well become the first Republican to lose a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades. In polls, he's tied or behind Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a seminarian who has cast Paxton and Republicans as corrupt and beholden to billionaires. As of Monday, Talarico was on track to be outspent nearly 5-to-1 by pro-Paxton groups in the campaign's final two months, The New York Times reports. 💰 Zoom in: Texas PAC filed an FEC report yesterday showing the group had just spent more than $61.4 million in two days on ads and other activities for Paxton and against Talarico. That brought the PAC's total spending on Paxton's behalf to more than $131 million in 17 days — more than $7.7 million a day. Democrats backing Talarico are unlikely to come close to GOP spending, but are stepping up their ad buys.

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Republicans Panic as Darline Graham Falls Into Desperately Close Race

The late senator’s sister is facing headwinds in a red state.

Senator Darline Graham rode Donald Trump’s endorsement to become the GOP Senate nominee in South Carolina, but alarm bells are sounding over the race in what was once considered a solid red state.

A new poll of likely voters in South Carolina showed Graham with just a one-point lead over Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews.

Her brother, Lindsey Graham, won by more than 10 points against Democratic Party challenger Jaime Harrison in 2020.

The Trafalgar Group poll was conducted last week and showed Trump’s handpicked candidate at 43.4 percent to the Democratic nominee’s 42.3 percent. 8.5 percent were undecided.

The tightening race came despite the poll’s much larger sample of Republican voters: 59.1 percent. Andrews led among voters under 50, as well as among women.

It is one of several polls in recent weeks showing a tighter-than-expected race.

An InsiderAdvantage poll this month also showed Andrews within the margin of error among likely voters, including eight percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Independents.

On Tuesday, Politico reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would be heading down to South Carolina as part of his campaign swing ahead of the midterms.

It comes as Republicans are facing an increasingly ugly political landscape as they look to hold onto the Senate majority, with Democrats competing in a series of states Trump won in 2024.

While Thune will be making multiple stops in what have long been considered traditional battleground states, a visit to the Palmetto State shows they’re keeping a close eye on it.

Majority Whip John Barrasso rushed down to South Carolina ahead of the runoff to help Graham’s campaign, and Trump even held a rally in the state to help get her across the finish line against Rep. Ralph Norman last month.

But the divisions in the GOP remain, with just over 30 days to go before the midterms.

Norman’s wife Elaine has noticeably been sharing anti-Graham content on Facebook even after she locked in the nomination.

While GOP critics have warned a splintered GOP vote could ultimately help Democrats, Norman has continued to share content critical of the South Carolina Republican Party and even a write-in effort for her husband.

As the race tightens, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates it as “Likely Republican,” but it shifted slightly in Democrats’ favor last week from “Solid Republican.” The analysis noted the conservative grassroots campaign to write in Norman.

The state largely remains overwhelmingly Republican, as the last Democrat elected to the Senate there was Fritz Hollings back in 1998.

But Graham and Andrews will face off in person for a debate in just over a week on October 11.

It’s a high-stakes event for both candidates. Andrews is trying to win over Republicans to build her coalition before Election Day. Meanwhile, Graham needs to avoid repeating her previous debate performance.

She faced bipartisan criticism for her appearance on the debate stage during the runoff, where she admitted a lack of knowledge on national security, calling it “not my thing.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-panic-as-darline-graham-falls-into-desperately-close-race/?